Thursday, November 18, 2010

John Buck Deal Is Ludicrous for Marlins

John Buck hit 20 homers for the Blue Jays in 2010 and finished with an OPS+ of 115 and to his credit, has parlayed that into a three year deal with the Marlins for $18 million. Frankly, the deal is ludicrous for the Marlins on several levels. Here are just a few:

  • But did hit .281 in 2010, but his BABIP was .335. His average will come down.
  • Buck had never before hit .260, never mind .281.
  • But walked only 16 times in 2010. That is Bengie Molina kind of plate patience.
  • Over his last 596 at bats, Buck has struck out 166 times. That is Adam LaRoche type numbers.
  • According to Fangraphs, 2010 was only the second year that Buck finished a season with a positive WAR figure.
  • Buck is only an average receiver. He will throw out  a quarter of the runners trying to steal.
  • The contract is a 300% raise for Buck over the $2 million he made last year.
  • Buck has a lifetime On Base Percentage of .301.

Those are just some of the highlights. The only way Buck is worth that kind of money is if he can repeat the numbers he compiled in 2010. Those numbers were higher than any other season Buck has ever played. So the chances of him being worth that contract are small. Plus, the Marlins had a nice catcher in house in Ronny Paulino who is a better defensive catcher. Paulino had a nice run for the Marlins last year but struggled after Edwin Rodriguez played him too many games in a row. Buck finished much higher in offensive categories but Paulino did have a higher OBP.

This deal doesn't make any sense. Buck hasn't proven anything with his season in 2010. If he does it again in 2011, then perhaps we'll talk. And even his 2010 season masks some ugliness that a bunch of homers can hide. No, this deal doesn't seem smart at all. But then again, this Fan has been wrong before.


Navin V. said...

You don't have to worry about being wrong on this one, mate.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the draft pick, Florida. We'll hopefully be able to use it north of the border!