Saturday, August 31, 2013

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: August 31, 2013

How can the most obvious pick of the day be wrong so often? The Rangers against the Twins. Yu Darvish, the most talented arm in baseball and the choice of many for the CYA, was on the mound and had a no-hitter through six. Darvish is up against Liam Hendriks, a pitcher with a career record of 1-11 and a 5.60 career ERA. Darvish gave up three runs in the seventh. No big deal. The Rangers should still win by scoring five or six runs, right? Of course not. Obvious never is right. The obvious has been wrong three days in a row. If I keep doing this, I am going to go crazy and become this gibberish-speaking lunatic.

Otherwise, it was a good day of picking. But that is all negated by being wrong on the obvious. There is no good feeling from a good day when the obvious never goes right. I do feel good about the Blue Jays pick and the Pirates pick.

Saturday's picks:

  • The Yankees over the Orioles: Ivan Nova has been on a roll. Even when he walks people, his stuff has been getting him out of trouble. Scott Feldman is a decent pitcher. But he is not a shut down pitcher and the Yankees should score enough to win.
  • The Blue Jays over the Royals: I am going to get all giddy here and predict the Blue Jays win a second game in a row. And no, there is no brandy in my coffee. R.A. Dickey is going to have a good day at home and the Jays score a few runs off of Jeremy Guthrie.
  • The Phillies over the Cubs: It has been a long while since Cliff Lee won a ballgame. Today will be that day. He should have no trouble with the Cubs' lineup and the Phillies will scratch a couple off of Chris Rusin.
  • The Nationals over the Mets: This pick did not work out yesterday as Dillon Gee did his thing. Zack Wheeler could be explosive and shut the Nats down. Or he could give up four runs in five innings. I am feeling the latter. Dan Haren, meanwhile, has turned his season around in a big way.
  • The Cardinals over the Pirates: Lance Lynn must avoid the big inning with the crooked number in the middle innings for the Cardinals to win. Lynn has to have a very good game. The Pirates' lineup is still their weakest link and can be shut down. A.J. Burnett is not reliable enough to pick.
  • The Indians over the Tigers: This is an upset pick and can be right if Scott Kazmir has a good day and if Anibal Sanchez has hit a wall like it appears his last couple of outings. Who knows if Miguel Cabrera is going to play. He is put together with duct tape right now.
  • The Brewers over the Angels: Jerome Williams has not pitched well lately and the Angels do not have much of an offense lately either (even though they have been winning more regularly. Marco Estrada gets a win.
  • The Red Sox over the White Sox: Jake Peavy was built for a pennant race. He is an intense guy. I like his chances over the White Sox, his old team. John Danks has been pitching really well, but he is facing the Red Sox.
  • The Mariners over the Astros: Guys on the Mariners like Kyle Seager and Dustin Ackley hit better on the road for the Mariners. Of course, this pick is a pick for Joe Saunders. Ugh. But Dallas Keuchel is not a good pick either.
  • The Rangers over the Twins: Matt Garza should be the difference here as he his a much better pitcher than Mike Pelfrey. As I mentioned earlier, "should be," is a scary phrase.
  • The Rockies over the Reds: If this game becomes a Coors shootout, the Reds win. Otherwise, it is a Rockies win as on any given day, Juan Nicasio should be better than Greg Reynolds.
  • The Giants over the Diamondbacks: I have picked against Ryan Vogelsong in his last three starts and have gotten burned. I picked against the Giants yesterday and got burned. Picking them today will probably burn me too. Trevor Cahill goes for the D-backs.
  • The Rays over the A's: Just because I like to say it. So I got this man-crush on Sonny Gray after his first couple of starts. I loved his name and he was pitching well. But he has caused me to fall out of lust with him over the past two outings. I am going with Alex Cobb instead.
  • The Dodgers over the Padres: Chris Capuano is the type of pitcher that will get you through the season but will be left off the post-season roster. He should get the win today. Andrew Cashner has good stuff, but no support.

And the Game of the Day:

  • The Braves over the Marlins: I simply like Mike Minor better than I like Jacob Turner in this one. The Braves are at home and even though they burn through four relief pitchers a game, keep on winning.

Yesterday: 10-5
Week: 45-34
Month: 232-174
Season: 1135-887
Games of the Day: 85-61  -3

No comments: