Wednesday, August 28, 2013

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: August 28, 2013

There were two extra inning games last night. Can you guess how many of them went for the pick and not against? Of course you can. They both went against the pick. They always do. Heck, the winning run in one of them was scored on a balk by Lord Farquhar. How is that for a creative way to blow a pick? Those two games put a damper on what had been a very good night to that point. I still finished at 9-6 so I should not complain. I predicted Jonathon Niese's great game. I predicted the Angels' win over the Rays.

But it was not all fun and roses. Jeff Locke and Justin Verlander let me down again. Travis Wood finally beat one of the aces he is tasked to pitch against every week. Both Wood pitchers won yesterday.

Wednesday's picks:

  • The Dodgers over the Cubs: Edwin Jackson is no Travis Wood and even though Ricky Nolasco is no Kershaw, he will get the job done. Nolasco has been terrific for the Dodgers.
  • The Mariners over the Rangers: Felix Hernandez rarely has two sub-par outings in a row and he is pitching at home during the day. All of those facts should get him a win over Martin Perez, who has also been pitching well of late.
  • The Nationals over the Marlins: Stephen Strasburg calmed my fears last time with his long and effective outing. He should have no trouble with the Marlins as long as he stays away from Giancarlo Stanton. Henderson Alvarez should give the Nats a few runs.
  • The Pirates over the Brewers: The Buccos have been having some trouble up in Milwaukee. They need to win this one. And they have a decent chance to do so. Charlie Morton continues to baffle me and Tom Gorzelanny should cough up a few at least.
  • The Yankees over the Blue Jays: Hiroki Kuroda just needs to get the baton from Andy Pettitte and do his thing for seven innings and the Yankees should get him a win with plenty of runs off of Todd Redmond.
  • The Tigers over the Athletics: Who knows, if I keep picking this result day after day, someday it might actually happen. Doug Fister needs to be better than Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander were and the Tigers need to take care of Dan Straily.
  • The Bay Rays over the Angels: This is a tough one. Chris Archer is a bit hit or miss as a starter. He has great outings and then bad ones. Garrett Richards is capable of shutting down the Rays, but will he? Going with the home team.
  • The Red Sox over the Orioles: Back in 2011, the Red Sox saw their season slip away at the hands of Buck Showalter and the Orioles. They seem determined not to be ambushed again. John Lackey has pitched well all season without much to show for it. The Red Sox should wreck Bud Norris.
  • The Indians over the Braves: This pick all depends on Justin Masterson. If the Indians' pitcher shows up with his A game, he can shut this lineup down and strike out ten. If he gets his sinker up, then Paul Maholm could sneak in there with the win.
  • The Phillies over the Mets: No, I do not believe that Daisuke Matsuzaka can win this game. It was a nice idea, Mets. But. Instead. Cole Hamels is going to win this game especially after the Mets wisely got some value for Marlon Byrd.
  • The White Sox over the Astros: I really like Jarred Cosart and he has been pitching well. Unfortunately, his team will not score against Chris Sale who hopefully will let water coolers and first aid kits get a break this game.
  • The Twins over the Royals: I still do not believe in Danny Duffy despite how well he threw in his last game. Then again, he should be better than Wade Davis. Anyway, my pick is for Andrew Albers of the Twins to have a good BABIP game.
  • The Cardinals over the Reds: Give the Cards credit. They have gotten the job done this week against the Reds and have already won the series. But they now can have ace, Adam Wainwright, mop up and dismantle the contenders. Homer Bailey, of course, could come out with no-hit stuff again and ruin the pick.
  • The Rockies over the Giants: Every time I pick Madison Bumgarner to win, he loses. And picking him pitching at Coors Field does not seem the safe way to go. Instead, I will go with Jhoulys Chacin who is used to pitching there.

And the Game of the Day:

  • The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Wade Miley is going to have a good game and has been good lately. Robbie Erlin is not having a good time so far in the Majors and has been lit up regularly.

Yesterday: 9-6
Week: 22-18
Month: 209-158
Season: 1112-871
Games of the Day: 85-58   +3

1 comment:

Pendo said...

When one REALLY loves baseball being uninformed (or the mere recipient of mass media bias) is impossible.

Case in point: The superficially shiny uncle Albers Vs. Dumbed-Down Duffy, so scruffy...

Granted KC owns Minny this year,
like the way they owned the White Sox last year.
KC's outscoring Minnesota 60-26 = more than double over that span.
Their current 5-0 run in Minnesota this season sees them outscoring the Twinkies 33-16 over that span.

Now Andrew Albers may be up from AA-ball and in at the big league level for the rest of the season but it's only because Minny has run out of valid options down on their farm.
Albers 4 starts since being called up 6 August 2013 shows the average MLB fan a sparkling ERA of 3.00.
But don't buy this bunk: Andrew's been aided by a low hit rate and high strand rate. Fatigue's an issue over the last month, as Albers averaged just under 100 IP the previous 2 seasons and is already up to 162 innings this season split between the minors and majors. He’s also been whacked in back-to-back starts vs. the Tigers and White Sox - the Royals team he faced is 5th in the majors against lefties with a team batting average of .264 !!!!! Albers’ 11 K’s in 30 innings at this level means that further correction in his hitherto 3.00 ERA will be inflicted by every team to come (with the possible exception of Miami, of course).

Meanwhile, Duffy's 4.14 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in the minors this year is partly a result of being hit hard in 6 of his very 1st seven outings coming off Tommy John Surgery in June of 2012. Duffy began the Triple-A phase of his return with 11 BB in 15.1 IP but he's improved greatly with 12 BB in his last 38 IP. He then proceeded to strike out 19 batters over his final two minor league starts! In his 1st start this season, after one relief appearance, all Duffy did was throw a six-inning, one-hitter against the Tigers. In 9.2 innings, he’s struck out 10 batters. In May of last year, Duffy’s average fastball was at a sizzling 95 MPH with movement. 14 months removed from TJS, this kid can pitch again and against current Minnesota hitter’s he’s allowed just 10 hits in 48 AB (.208) and half of those AB's were with a bad elbow.

...A little more love leads to further investigation, and revelation...