Tuesday, August 20, 2013

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: August 20, 2013

Gee, Monday was a lot better than the previous days had been. Gee, of course, stands for Dillon Gee, who was great. Great also was Francisco Liriano, who would be a CYA candidate if he season had started six or seven games earlier in the season. He was awesome. Jon Lester threw a gem. Jose Fernandez was not his usual dominate at home, but he was still good enough to give the mighty Dodgers their second loss in a row. The Cardinals gave away Shelby Miller's lead and still came back to win. Yup, it was a good picking day.

There are sixteen games today as the Yankees and Blue Jays play a pair. The picks:

  • The Yankees over the Blue Jays: Ivan Nova has been very good of late and as long as he can avoid the bombs, should pitch well today. Esmil Rogers was much better his last time out and will have to be again for the Blue Jays to compete.
  • The Rockies over the Phillies: Tyler Cloyd has thrown two good starts in a row, but they were against weak competition and he did not strike hardly anyone out. I think the Rockies will get to him. Jorge De La Rosa will have to be better for the Rockies to win though.
  • The Orioles over the Rays: This is sort of a must game for the Orioles. They cannot afford to fall that much further back. Miguel Gonzalez is a solid starter for them. But it all depends on what the Orioles' lineup does with Alex Cobb, who was very good in his first outing back from the DL.
  • The Blue Jays over the Yankees: The Yankees traditionally do well against Mark Buehrle, but it will not matter because Phil Hughes is pitching the second game and he is pitching at home. That spells disaster in most cases.
  • The Diamondbacks over the Reds: I love both of the lefties in this game in Patrick Corbin and Tony Cingrani. Since half of me is Sicilian, I love Cingrani, of course. But I have to go with Patrick Corbin. There have been some cracks in his season lately, but he is really, really good.
  • The Braves over the Mets: Zack Wheeler was really good in his last outing and should be fine at Citi Field. Brandon Beachy will be really good too. That will probably make this a bullpen game and a big advantage goes to the Braves if that happens.
  • The Dodgers over the Marlins: The mini-losing streak for the Dodgers ends but Chris Capuano will have to pitch well. At least he has a big ballpark to do it in. Jacob Turner has not had much success lately.
  • The Rangers over the Astros: I hate this pick. Travis Blackley is getting a spot start for the Rangers and he is not that great. Jarred Cosart has been good for the Astros and there is no way the Rangers are scoring another fifteen runs. But Cosart will only give you five or six innings and that same crummy Astros' bullpen has to finish the game.
  • The Cubs over the Nationals: There. It has sunk this low. I cannot even get a win from my man-crush, Zimmermann. Chris Rusin has been pitching well for the Cubs and I like him as a lefty against the Nats. Dan Haren is immensely likable and hardly predictable.
  • The Royals over the White Sox: The White Sox have been playing better. But they never win when John Danks pitches, it does not matter how well he pitches or not. So I am going with the Royals and Ervin Santana.
  • The Brewers over the Cardinals: I really like Kyle Lohse pitching at home against his old team. I really like Lance Lynn too, but the problem with Lynn is that he will be marching along with not a problem and then fall into a hole for an inning. It is usually around the fourth or fifth inning too. Such a tease.
  • The Indians over the Angels: I am not going to repeat the mistake of last night. No Mike Trout for the Angels means no chance. Danny Salazar against C.J. Wilson.
  • The Athletics over the Mariners: Sonny Gray! I love that name and I love how he pitched last time, especially since I picked it that way. Joe Saunders can still put a good game together (somehow) but I have to go with Sonny.
  • The Pirates over the Padres: A.J. Burnett does not have to be as good as Liriano. But he does have to be better than he was his last time out. But A.J. is A.J. So the Pirates better score often against Tyson Ross.
  • The Red Sox over the Giants: First, I think the Red Sox are going to be all over Ryan Vogelsong. Secondly, I think Jake Peavy is going to be great. Lastly, we are all salivating over seeing Xander Bogaerts!

And the Game of the Day:
  • The Tigers over the Twins: The Twins have hit one of their deepest wells in the season. Mike Pelfrey is not the kind of pitcher to dig them out of that. Rick Porcello is the weakest link for Detroit's rotation and he still wins his fair share of games.

Yesterday: 8-4
Week: 15-12
Month: 1054-819
Games of the Day: 80-55   +1


Pendo said...

The Rockies are a small favorite here but they are incorrectly billed as such and we’re all over it. Colorado has one of the league’s worst road records at 24-41. The Rockies have dropped three in a row and 11 of their past 13 road games. Colorado is favored here because Jorge De La Rosa comes in with a 12-6 record and a 3.22 ERA but it’s all smoke and mirrors. De La Rosa’s low ERA is a direct result of a high strand rate of 79%. Truth be told, De La Rosa has one of the worst batting averages against (.270) among all starting pitchers. With a low strikeout rate, a high line-drive rate of 29% and that high strand percentage, De La Rosa’s luck and ERA is unsustainable. He’s also had a string of soft batting line-ups recently (San Diego, Pittsburgh twice, the Cubbies, Miami and San Fran) and that, too, has helped to mask his poor skills. He’ll now face a Phillies team that is waking up and that has hit .302 against him. The Phillies snapped an ugly losing streak with a 3-2 win over the Dodgers on Sunday and followed that up with a 5-4 win in the opener of this series. A couple of wins does wonders for a teams’ psyche and the Phillies figure to unleash it all here.

Tyler Cloyd began the season in the Phillies rotation but too many walks after six starts led to a 1.51 WHIP, which led to a one-way ticket back to the minors.
Cloyd is a soft-tosser (like the way you depict thee Chen Master Zen Master from KC) with a history of excellent control so his walks allowed was somewhat puzzling. He was lights-out at AAA before his call-up last season with a 12-1 record and 2.35 ERA. In his six starts before being sent down, four of them were 'quality starts' (starts going 6+ innings of 3 runs or less ball pitched). Cloyd went down, worked on his mechanics and it has paid off. Over his past 10 starts, Cloyd has a 3.09 ERA with 11 walks versus 49 strikeouts in 64 innings. Cloyd locates his 87-90 fastball extremely well to both sides of the plate. To complement the plus command of his fastball, he mixes in a quality curveball and changeup, keeping hitters honest. While Cloyd will never overpower anyone, his ability to change speeds and command his arsenal have allowed him to succeed in the minors and throw many quality innings at this level too. He’s also been given a vote of confidence by new manager Ryne Sandberg, who has told Cloyd that he’s going to pitch every fifth day for the remainder of the year. Expect Cloyd to respond.

On top of all that Mr. tasker, Philly is 6-3 at home on Tuesdays after they played at home on Monday, and a fantastic 12-5 on all Tuesdays this year versus a Colorado club that's 9-11 overall witha pathetic 4-7 tuesday road-record... There is an overwhelming team spirit of winning today for Phil Phillies that encounters a Col Club already conditioned for the loss.

William Tasker - Caribou, ME said...

And yet the Rockies won the game. There is no science to this. Once the game starts, each one is a crap shoot.