Yankees Gave The Advantage Back To Boston

I warned the Yankees about Brock Holt before the game yesterday. The Yankees usually hold their own against the superstars. But the utility guys kick them around all the time. The guy has a 91 career OPS+ and he gets ten total bases in one game against the Yankees. Ah well, the fact is that once again, Luis Severino could not come up big in a playoff game. So he got David Priced by the Red Sox and from there, all hell broke loose.

So now the Yankees face elimination. They have to beat the best team in baseball two games in a row to advance. They lose tonight, they go home. And surprisingly, the Yankees have chosen CC Sabathia to start the game. While this seems a big gamble, it is not as if Sabathia hasn't been here before. He is 2018's Andy Pettitte trying to rally the day. But I thought sure that J.A. Happ would get the start. Boston is why the Yankees went and got him, right? That becomes moot if the Yankees go home.

On the other side, the Boston Red Sox will start, Rick Porcello, a pitcher who has made the Yankees look stupid on many an occasion. The Yankees had a lousy batting plan against Nathan Eovaldi and if they don't plan better against Porcello, they will go home. It is as simple as that. The Yankees cannot continue to try to pull the ball against these guys. Eovaldi will invade the dreams far into the winter.

Aaron Hicks is back. Is that a good thing? Can he play defense with a bad hammy? Can he play it as well as Brett Gardner? At least he will bat third and push Luke Voit down in the batting order. The Yankees got really carried away by batting Voit third yesterday. The guy is easy to love and all of that, but he is not a three-hole hitter and will bog down against good pitching. He is another guy who had all his success hitting the ball to right field and suddenly wants to pull everything now. Why do all Yankee players turn into that? Giancarlo Stanton? Gary Sanchez? Pull, pull, pull. Go the other way!!

The Yankees will win if they have a good plan against Porcello and get him early AND if CC Sabathia can survive four innings with less than three runs. The Yankees will lose in all other scenarios. But at least one shred of dignity will be left. Other than the Braves, the Yankees will be the only vanquished Division Series team that won at least once in the series.

Oh, and remember one thing. In 2004, the Yankees took a 3-0 series lead against the Red Sox by scoring 19 runs in the third game. They never won the fourth game. So anything is possible. It's just not probable.

MLB Game Picks - Monday: May 11, 2015

On a full day of baseball, I consider nine correct picks a good day and ten a great day. That designation hung in the balance last night until midnight with the Royals - Tigers game. It was 1-1 going into the ninth and the home field advantage of the Tigers was somewhat nullified by the great Royals' bullpen. The bullpen won out and I didn't have a great day. I had a good day.

Monday's picks:

• The Pirates over the Phillies: The Pirates came alive a little bit against the Cards. Gerrit Cole pitches and he has been great. Jerome Williams goes for the Phillies and he will pitch well about a third of the time. I'm counting on this not being one of those thirds.
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: I don't think the AL East has played anyone but each other for the first six weeks of the season. And anything can happen in any match-up. I don't think the Orioles will have trouble with Marco Estrada. A lot will depend on how well Ubaldo Jimenez pitches.
• The Reds over the Braves: It's so weird seeing the Braves have such a bad bullpen. When is the last time it was like that? Considering this pick, Shelby Miller has been great for the Braves. But Mike Leake has been great for the Reds, I know as I have picked against him several times.
• The Rays over the Yankees: CC Sabathia has thrown a goose egg thus far and is 0-5. That streak has to end some time. Will today be that day? Alex Colome has had two very good outings and has yet to walk a batter. I'm going with the Rays at home.
• The White Sox over the Brewers: The White Sox have come alive and have started winning regularly. They will lose the DH today, but should still have more offense than the Brewers. Jeff Samardzija versus Wily Peralta.
• The Cubs over the Mets: I love me some Jacob deGrom and it pains me to pick against him. But he loves his fastball and the Cubs have all these young guys who can club fastballs. Meanwhile, Jon Lester is rounding into form after a slow start.
• The Nationals over the Diamondbacks: I'm still waiting for Max Scherzer to get all commando on the National League. It hasn't happened yet. Perhaps it will start today against his old team. Josh Collmenter will try to keep up.
• The Red Sox over the Athletics: The A's have yet to get it together this season. Neither have the Red Sox for that matter. But the Red Sox will win their second in a row and everyone will talk about how important that players-only team meeting was. Gag me. Rick Porcello versus Scott Kazmir.
• The Dodgers over the Marlins: Zack Greinke has been about as money as money can get this season. Tom Koehler should be good in a big ballpark. It might be a squeaker but the Dodgers will prevail.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Royals over the Rangers: Even now, I have a hard time believing that the Royals are a world class team. Some day it will sink in. Danny Duffy goes today against Colby Lewis and it may not be pretty for the Rangers.

Yesterday: 9-6, May: 76-64, Season: 240-229, Pick of the Day: 19-16

MLB Picks - Wednesday: April 29, 2015

Thank goodness! I finally had a good night of picking! With the one postponement I went 9-5. Once again, I came out on the wrong end of the Kershaw / Bumgarner match-up. And, I didn't see the Twins and Astros winning again. But they did. Otherwise, things went really well.

William's humpday picks:

• The Reds over the Brewers: On the one hand, the Reds have Michael Lorenzen making his MLB debut on the mound. His stats in the minors don't bowl you over. On the other hand, Matt Garza is not exactly a sure thing either. I'm going with the Reds in a slugfest.
• The Tigers over the Twins: Two former Yankee pitchers go at it tonight in a match-up of Shane Greene versus Phil Hughes. That is fun in and of itself, but until Hughes gets the long ball under control, I'll go with the Tigers.
• The White Sox over the Orioles: In what will be the most surreal game of the season, these two teams will play today with no crowds and an empty stadium. I'm going with Jeff Samardzija over Ubaldo Jimenez.
• The Astros over the Padres: Okay, Astros, you win...and win...and win. And I'm tired of not getting the message. Dallas Keuchel over Andrew Cashner.
• The Royals over the Indians: I'm tired of getting this one wrong too. The Indians have not even shown up here for this series despite having their best pitchers lined up. Yordano Venture must be appealing his suspension and is pitching. I hope he behaves. Danny Salazar will face him.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: R.A. Dickey has been a batting practice pitcher this season. Rick Porcello has fared only slightly better.
• The Marlins over the Mets: Bartolo Colon is 4-0. Mat Latos is 0-3. Something has to break here. It's a trap to pick the Mets based on this match-up. The Marlins love fastballs and I'm going with them.
• The Nationals over the Braves: Last night's big win for the Nats could be a turning point. At least it is something to build on. I like Jordan Zimmermann over Alex Wood.
• The Cubs over the Pirates: Gerrit Cole has been fabulous and Kyle Hendricks has not been. But the Cubs are having their way with the Pirates and will sweep tonight. This has become a fun team to watch.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: Wandy Rodriguez had a good debut for the Rangers, which is cool since nobody else wanted him. But he runs into Felix Hernandez today. Sorry about that, Wandy. King Felix has struggled in the past in Arlington though...
• The Cardinals over the Phillies: Oh no! I have to pick against Aaron Harang! That has always killed me. But logic says that the Cards are the better team and Carlos Martinez has an electric arm.
• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: Josh Collmenter has had two good starts in a row and the Rockies have been flat lately. Jordan Lyles is capable of a good game. Tough call here.
• The Angels over the Athletics: Chaka Jesse Hahn is one of my favorites, but I also like Matt Shoemaker. I also like the Angels' offense better than the A's right now.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: Zack Greinke will need to be efficient and give the Dodgers some length. If he does that, he should win over Ryan Vogelsong. But these Giants never seem to die, do they?

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Yankees over the Rays: The Yankees are on a serious roll and have not lost to the Rays yet this season. They face Drew Smyly (The Emoticon) and have their best pitcher, Michael Pineda on the mound.

Yesterday: 9-5, Season: 150-156, Picks of the Day: 13-10

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: September 21, 2014

Three straight great picking days crashed down in a pile of goo yesterday. That's the way it goes sometimes. I was too silly to think the Royals would beat the Tigers with their best pitcher on the mound. The Giants lost again. The Mariners got crushed by the Astros and I should have listened to myself about Dallas Keuchel. The Yankees lost. The Pirates lost while their best player acted as a bulls-eye all game. I picked the wrong young pitcher as T.J. House beat Trevor May (easily). It just wasn't a good day.

A week left to go in the regular season! Sunday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: How can you call this one? Masahiro Tanaka hasn't pitched in forever, so how can he be picked. At the same time...what if he is his brilliant old self? Hmm...  Drew Hutchison gets the start for the Blue Jays.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: How long will Stephen Strasburg pitch? What will happen after. Can the frustrating Nathan Eovaldi put together a great game? Will he? I have nothing but questions this morning.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: Joe Kelly might be the best Red Sox' starter left. Heaven knows their other starters aren't doing anything. Miguel Gonzalez goes for the Orioles. Does he fit into their post season plans? If not, will he go longer than the other starters?
• The Brewers over the Pirates: Wily Peralta has had a very good season and his last two starts have been quality. The Pirates have to be concerned about how many times Andrew McCutchen is getting hit. Vance Worley starts for the Bucs.
• The Mets over the Braves: Jacob deGrom cements his ROY credentials while the Braves still can't hit a lick right now. Ervin Santana has had a nice season, but he needs support. He won't get it.
• The Indians over the Twins: The match-up of Corey Kluber and Anthony Swarzak should end all questions here. But baseball is played on the field and not in the mind or on paper.
• The Tigers over the Royals: I'm sorry to say this, Royals' fans, but goodnight. Rick Porcello will take advantage of aggressive-swinging Royals and Jeremy Guthrie is a offensive charge waiting to happen.
• The Astros over the Mariners: The Astros were a bad team for the Mariners to run into right now and Collin McHugh is the wrong pitcher for their offensively-challened team. If Hisashi Iwakuma can hang with McHugh for six innings, the M's have a chance.
• The Cubs over the Dodgers: Jamey Wright is starting for the Dodgers!? Did I read that right? Uh. Okay. He is a good relief pitcher, I'll say that. Jacob Turner continues to try and make progress with his new home.
• The Angels over the Rangers: Cory Rasmus gets stretched out a little bit more with each start and is doing quite well. Nick Tepesch has been the better of a really weak Rangers' rotation (until Derek Holland came back).
• The Athletics over the Phillies: I have no confidence in this pick. If A.J. Burnett is sharp, then the A's offense will be the same old crap one it has been for weeks now. And Scott Kazmir has begun to walk people again, which is frightening. But I can't give up on the A's as they have been too resilient over the years.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: I'll be glad when this series is over. I haven't picked one game right yet. Christian Bergman goes for the Rockies and Wade Miley goes for the D-backs. Your guess is as good as mine.
• The Padres over the Giants: It seems like no contenders want to actually win these days and the Giants are no different. Ryan Vogelsong has been awful lately and that isn't promising. Ian Kennedy is my pick today.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: Remember when Alfredo Simon was an All Star pitcher? Yeah, me too. What happened with that? He is 2-7 with a 4.46 ERA since. Lance Lynn, meanwhile, is becoming an ace for the Cardinals.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Rays over the White Sox: Nate Karns was great in his first start, but I still can't believe it. Except the Rays are brilliant with turning around pitchers. Either way, John Danks can't be counted on for anything.

Yesterday: 6-9, Sept.: 163-113, Games of the Day: 100-63 (+8), Season: 1293-1047

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: September 16, 2014

Yesterday, I got cute and picked against Stephen Strasburg and he threw a gem. Of course, the Braves offense is similarly futile as the Yankees' offense these days. Jacob deGrom was sailing along, striking a ton of people out and then the Marlins erupted. I didn't see that coming. I shouldn't have picked against the Dodgers and I should not have picked the Giants. All those decisions led to a 6-6 day. At least the Game of the Day feature is on a three-game positive streak.

Tuesday's picks:

• The Pirates over the Red Sox: Why would the Pirates, who need to win every game, pitch Charlie Morton? No matter, the offense will pick him up against Anthony Ranaudo and win a high scoring game.
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: I have learned over the years not to pick a team the day after they seal the division. Besides, the Orioles are pitching Ubaldo Jimenez. I'll go with Drew Hutchison in hopes he will have a good game.
• The Mets over the Marlins: I know this didn't work out yesterday. And Nathan Eovaldi is capable of a big game. I just think that Bartolo Colon is due for one of his good games at home.
• The Rays over the Yankees: I asked Katie Sharp about the Yankees' line drive rate for the last two weeks and she told me that it was the lowest in the majors. I'm not surprised. They made a 4-A pitcher look like a god last night. Imagine what will happen against Jake Odorizzi. Actually, Odorizzi was the last guy they scored more than three runs against. No matter. The Yankees never score for Michael Pineda anyway.
• The Nationals over the Braves: The Braves are now a .500 team. Amazing. The Nationals are pushing for the clinch. Tanner Roark over Aaron Harang.
• The Reds over the Cubs: This pick did not work out yesterday because the Reds have sipped the same offensive Kool-aid as the Yankees and Braves. But Johnny Cueto goes for his nineteenth win, so I need to go there. Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta will try to prevent it.
• The Royals over the White Sox: Despite the fact that Jose Abreu might hit a ball thrown by Liam Hendriks to St. Louis, I'm going with the Royals with a win over Chris Bassitt who did pitch well his last time out.
• The Tigers over the Twins: The odds of Ricky Nolasco beating the Tigers? 100-1? Rick Porcello hasn't had a great second half, but he should win this thing as the Tigers inch closer to another danged division win.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: With a day off, the Cardinals should be fresh as daisies and Lance Lynn has been solid all season. Wily Peralta seems to be running out of steam. The Brewers showed so much promise earlier this season. It all fizzled.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Yes, this could be high scoring. But I've learned not to pick the Rockies (again). I must have lost my mind or something. Dan Haren and Tyler Matzek get the starts.
• The Diamondbacks over the Giants: The Giants have been the biggest hot and cold teams all season. They are either great for stretches or terrible for stretches. It's weird. Jake Peavy has been sensational for the Giants. But he is due for a bad game. Josh Collmenter has been one of the bright spots for the D-backs all season.
• The Mariners over the Angels: What did I say about picking against teams that just clinched? Yeah. Roenis Elias is not exactly reliable. But the Angels will be giddy. And I don't get warm fuzzies when Cory Rasmus starts.
• The Athletics over the Rangers: The Rangers have come alive and they are pitching suddenly. So this pick is uncomfortable. It is especially so since Scott Kazmir's wild streak has come back. Nick Tepesch goes for the Rangers. The A's will find a way.
• The Phillies over the Padres: Ian Kennedy simply doesn't do it for me. Ever. I mean, I root for him, but he is just an average pitcher. That might be enough against the Phillies if the Padres could hit. A.J. Burnett goes for the Phillies.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Indians over the Astros: Nick Tropeano did win his first MLB start, but let's not get carried away. He is facing Corey Kluber after all.

Yesterday: 6-6, Sept.: 121-85, Games of the Day: 95-63 (+3), Season: 1251-1019

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: September 10, 2014

Have you ever noticed that my picks are always more successful west of the Mississippi than they are east of it? For example, I started yesterday with the east coast and was 1-3 before my supper digested. I built that up to 5-5 and then did not get another game wrong the rest of the day. Weird. Maybe in the east, the teams are more on par and play closer games and in the west, there are more differences between the teams. Whatever it is, the west gave me a good night.

I did pick Collin McHugh and Houston to beat the Mariners. That was a nice pick. I was unfortunately correct about the Tigers though Joe Nathan made it interesting as he always does.. I did not see the Phillies beating the Pirates though.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Orioles over the Red Sox: Brandon Workman wants to start and not be in the bullpen. He hasn't exactly made a case for himself. Wei-Yin Chen has a great record but it hasn't changed much in a while. I just pick the Orioles every night and that seems to work pretty well.
• The Nationals over the Braves: Here we go again...picking Stephen Strasburg against the Braves. Hey, he has to have a good outing against them some time...even if it's just lucky or something. Aaron Harang goes for the Braves.
• The Indians over the Twins: This pick did not work out yesterday. Mr. T.J. House has put it together, however, and has two really good outings in a row. Kyle Gibson wins more than he loses, but you got me as to how.
• The Pirates over the Phillies: I told you in the past that Jerome Williams' magic only lasts for a couple of starts with each new team. Then he turns into the guy his team wants to DFA. That's just his history. Vance Worley isn't grooving much better these days...
• The Rays over the Yankees: Jake Odorizzi over Chris Capuano. I don't want to talk about it.
• The Blue Jays over the Cubs: Hmm...which great young pitcher will pitch better, Drew Hutchison or Kyle Hendricks? That's a tough one. I turned it around to which team is better able to hit against each pitcher. There was my answer.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Poof. I knew this series would go down just like it did. Let's see if I'm right through the end. Rick Porcello needs to be better than he has been lately. James Shields is "Big Game" except when it comes to the Tigers.
• The Mets over the Rockies: Location is everything. If Rafael Montero wasn't pitching in vast Citi Field, I wouldn't pick him. But since he is with his fly ball tendencies, he can get away with that and get his first big league win. Tyler Matzek grimly takes the ball every fifth day...
• The Cardinals over the Reds: Despite a bad loss last night in which the Cardinal twitter universe spewed all over manager, Mike Matheny, I am predicting a good game from John Lackey and a bad one from Alfredo Simon.
• The Angels over the Rangers: Until Derek Holland came back and with Darvish out, Nick Tepesch was the best of the Rangers' young starters. That still wasn't saying much. Matt Shoemaker is a machine. Does he have a flaw?
• The Marlins over the Brewers: The Brewers can't do anything right and are sinking like a mafia swimmer. Wily Peralta has had a good season and maybe he can stop the bleeding. I wouldn't count on it. Jarred Cosart has been really good for the Marlins.
• The Mariners over the Astros: Nick Tropeano is from West Islip, NY, so you have to say his name right. Turn your hand up and tough your thumb to your forefinger and say, "Nick Trop-ee-AH-no." The young man, making his MLB debut, has impressive numbers for the PCL (a hitter's league) and good control. Too bad he goes against Hisashi Iwakuma at home. Sorry about that.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Dan Haren and Ian Kennedy both confuse and confound me, so I'll just pick the home team.
• The Diamondbacks over the Giants: Josh Collmenter has really impressed me this season. Nice job, sir. Ryan Vogelsong has a very nice wife.

And the Game of the Day

• The Athletics over the White Sox: I hate to be a hound, but Chris Bassitt doesn't have the command to beat a team like the A's. Jeff Samardzija should feel at home back in Chicago.

Yesterday: 10-5, Sept.: 71-52, Games of the Day: 92-60 (+6), Season: 1201-986