Nasty boys - The best relief pitcher stuff of 2013

Last year I had this idea that if you added together the value given the pitches a pitcher throws you could rate the pitchers nearly as accurately as other measurements such as WAR, ERA+ and FIP. The results do not match up perfectly, but they are close in most cases. After all, if you throw consistently nasty stuff over the course of a season, the results you obtain with those pitches will lead to success. I have seen others rate the best fastball, the best splitter, the best curve, etc. But I like to add them all together to come up with a total "stuff" ranking.

Fortunately, this is fairly easy to do. Otherwise, I would not be doing it as I am no genius. All I did was go to Fangraphs.com's leaderboard and then go to the PitchF/X tab. And then I go to the Pitch Value tab. I prefer to use the PitchF/X calculations instead of Fangraphs' own proprietary pitch valuations as the latter seems (to me) more accurate for the type of pitch thrown. For example, Fangraphs.com says that Kenley Jansen throws a fastball and that is what they rate. But it is pretty obvious watching him pitch that he throws a cutter, which is what PitchF/X says he throws.

Anyway, once I have the pitch values in front of me, I downloaded the CSV file (Isn't it fabulous these stat sites are so generous with their data?). The CSV opens like a Microsoft Excel file and I can then delete the columns I don't want and do a Sum function to the first pitcher listed on the sum value of all his pitches to come up with a total pitch value. I copy that down for all the pitchers and then do a Sort to be able to see the top and the bottom. I did this for both starters and relievers. In my last post, I gave you my results for the starting pitchers. Today the relievers are rated..

You may wonder why I used the pitch values and not the pitch values per hundred. Unfortunately, the latter does not work for me because the numbers get skewed. For example, a pitcher may have pitched four curves all season. If the four were crappy, then his pitch value per hundred on the curve would be like -25 runs or something. That doesn't work for what I am doing.

Without further ado, I give you the nastiest relief pitchers by pitch value for 2013:

1. Koji Uehara: 27.7
2. Kenley Jansen: 21.8
3. Craig Kimbrel, Joe Nathan: 19.4
4. Greg Holland: 18.8
5. Mark Melancon: 18.3
6. Alex Torres: 18.1
7. Tyler Clippard: 17.7
8. Luke Hochevar: 17
9. Luis Avilan: 16.8

The really interesting part of this list is that each pitcher killed with different pitches. Uehara, the most dominant relief pitcher in baseball in 2013, scored well with his fastball and his split finger was off the charts good. Kenley Jansen killed with his cutter. Kimbrel and Nathan used a combination of the fastball and slider to have great seasons. Nathan had a really great comeback season. Melancon relied on a deadly cutter. Torres and Avilan used a two-seam fastball to great effect.

The list also showed a strong season for Luke Hochevar, a pitcher that never lived up to his starter potential, but found a great home in the eighth inning setting up Holland, who was also terrific.

These guys were nasty good and their combined pitch values really showed how difficult a task batters had facing them.

And, of course, if you see the good, you want to hear about the bad, right? The five relief pitchers with the combined lowest pitch value scores were:

• Carter Capps and Michael Gonzalez with -11.9
• Brandon League with -11.6
• Jose Mijares with -9.9
• Chris Perez at -9.7

No other qualifying relief pitcher scored below -6, so that gives you an idea of how ineffective these relievers were.

Nathan Signing Comes With Marginal Risk

The Texas Rangers again struck hot in the free agent market by signing Joe Nathan, the former Twins' closer to a two year $14.5 million contract. The move is not about Neftali Feliz's problems closing out Game Six of the World Series. If anything, Joe Nathan's post season record is even spottier than Feliz's. This is not about Feliz not having enough "steel" in big moments as Jon Heyman suggested in a tweet last night. Feliz is hardly the first closer to give up a series-clinching opportunity. Even the great Mariano has done that. This is more a deal about wanting Feliz to start games instead of close them. But the move is not without risk.

There is little risk for adding Joe Nathan as your closer. Last year was his first off of Tommy John surgery and Nathan struggled out of the box. But that is normal in having to build up the trust in his elbow and the strength needed to throw the ball 95 MPH. Nathan showed in the second half of last year that he was all the way back to form. His strikeout to walk ratio in the second half was at 4.40, higher than any of his salad days except for 2006 when he was nearly unhittable. Nathan's second half OPS against was .654. His fastball wasn't quite back to where it was in 2009 in either velocity or movement. But with another winter to build up his strength, he should be back to 2009 levels (although he is 37 years old).

Nathan needs to be nearly as good as he was in 2009 to earn his salary, so that's a pretty minimal risk. The risk is basically replacing C.J. Wilson, a proven commodity with Neftali Feliz, who hasn't started since he was a very young prospect in the Rangers' minor league system. The Rangers have had terrific success converting relievers to starters the last two season. C.J. Wilson made the move two years ago and has gone 31-15 since while compiling 10.5 fWAR. Then in 2011 Alexi Ogando made the switch and compiled 3.6 fWAR covering 29 starts and two relief appearances. Most importantly, Ogando maintained his velocity during the course of the season.

So the Rangers do have a track record of making this happen successfully. If they can hit the jackpot again with Feliz in the rotation in 2012, they basically trade Wilson's $20 million (if his asking price is to believed) salary for about $8 million for both Nathan and Feliz combined. If it all works out perfectly, then the Rangers won't lose too much performance and save themselves $14 million a year. Not a bad thing.

If Feliz can't make the transition successfully, then they might toast one of the best arms in their system. The Rangers sill have Scott Feldman under contract for one more season and Feldman could be more than adequate in the rotation as a Plan B. Feldman mitigates some of the risk and if it doesn't work out for Feliz, too many arms in the bullpen isn't exactly a bad thing. If Feliz can successfully make the switch, Feldman will make nice trade bait for needed pieces.

At least the Rangers are being aggressive and going after what they want. Jon Daniels did a good job of not terribly overpaying Nathan, especially with the market prices we've seen lately. The move allows him to keep from bidding against himself for Wilson's services and cushions the loss if Wilson signs elsewhere. Not a bad day's work for one of the best general managers in the business.

Joe Nathan Got Really Bad News

The unfortunate fact for Joe Nathan is that the only times he seemed fallible have been on the national stage. When most baseball fans think of Joe Nathan, they remember post season failure. He's pitched in eight post season games accounting for eight innings in which he gave up twelve hits and seven runs. That is unfortunate because besides the post season, Nathan has been the best closer this side of Mariano Rivera. Today he found out that he has a significant tear in a tendon in his elbow. He has ruled out immediate surgery and is going to try to rehab it and see if he can pitch with it. That doesn't seem like it will work.

All of which leaves the Twins with a hole in the closer position. To be sure, somebody they already have like Neshak or Mijares or someone can be plugged into the spot and succeed 85% of the time. The odds are against a closer failing. Even so, Nathan was one of the best and it will be a mental letdown for the Twins' starters knowing he isn't back there to finish off their games.

Nathan had 246 saves in the last six years, more than anyone in baseball for that time period. He has averaged 5.4 hits per nine innings and WHIPs under 1 in every one of those seasons except one. His ERA was under 1.90 for four of those six years. He averaged more than ten strikeouts per nine innings during that time span. That's pretty hard to argue with.

And so Nathan was a lot like the argument concerning Alex Rodriguez all those years where he didn't perform in the post season. Granted, when Nathan needed to come up big in the post season, he didn't. But like A-Rod, there's no way the Twins get in that position without him.

Nathan is an emotional guy and his news conference today was a bit heart rending. He is 35 years old now and the only guy like him who has had an elbow injury like his at his age was Billy Wagner. Wagner looks like he has come back pretty well at an advanced age, so perhaps we haven't heard the last of Nathan. But it's a pretty serious injury and the odds are stacked pretty high against him.

The Twins are a good organization and the Fan is sure they'll find somebody to step up in the closer role. But those are pretty darn big shoes to fill.