David Ortiz defies objectivity

There is a segment of the baseball writing world that can write dispassionately about baseball players. They focus on the cold, hard facts of performance. Beat writers are paid to be objective. Objectivity, in fact, is a journalistic must.  Not being a journalist but trying always to be fair, being objective about David Ortiz is impossible.

There probably isn't a player besides Ortiz (Jeter maybe?) that stirs up such passion from his own fans and those who are not fans of the Red Sox. Write any article about Ortiz and Red Sox fans are going to comment viciously and the return volleys will be just as pointed. To criticize Ortiz in any way is to provoke an entire fan base who worship the guy. To extol his accomplishments provokes anyone who isn't a Red Sox fan.

Take the latest story about Chris Archer taking aim at Ortiz for the dramatic bat flip Ortiz exhibited with the slugger's latest three-run homer. Archer wasn't pleased and in a very articulate interview, explained why he was unhappy with what Ortiz did. As reported on MLB.com, the comments show you what I mean. Dueling Red Sox fans and those not sparred endlessly to the point of nausea.

I thought to respond to what Archer said, but could not find an objective way to do so. I have long respected David Ortiz's ability to rise to the moment and change a baseball game.  The man has a .946 career OPS in high leverage situations. You can't argue with those kinds of numbers. But I cannot respond as such without admitting that I have never liked the guy.

And then I have to face the music because I have long stated that all those unwritten rules about showing emotion on the field are bogus. So what if a player celebrates? So what if a players bring a little flair to what they do. Remember Rickey Henderson snatching fly balls out of the sky? Ichiro has that flair in right field. Fist pumps by pitchers should not be a bad thing. Traditionalists do not believe that any emotion should show or any showmanship should be allowed. I don't agree.

Examining my thoughts fully, Ortiz falls under the showman category. When he flips his bat, it is no different than when Puig does so or others. The main difference is the entire persona Ortiz seems to inhabit on the field.

While Archer should probably get over the bat flip thing (fans rightly pointed out the time Archer kissed his arm after a big strikeout), he does have a point about the world revolving around Ortiz.

Ortiz and his on-field persona remind me a lot of Pedro Martinez when Pedro was king of pitchers. Martinez was in your face. He did not mind exhibiting that he was in charge, that he was going to dominate you. If you were not a Red Sox fan, it was hard to like.

The difference was that Pedro threw a hundred pitches. He was out there battling a juiced up offensive world for a hundred pitches and was nearly untouchable. He was the matador and was center stage. Ortiz has one skill: He can hit and he can hit important hits at important times. Pretty cool skills, no doubt, but not in the same category as Martinez as matador.

David Ortiz is not the only guy who flips the bat. But there are other things that add up after a while. Pitchers are not allowed to crowd him. Official scorers are not supposed to score against him. Umpires are not supposed to call a close pitch against him. And there is body language that tells you infield shifts are unseemly to him.

When was the last major event hosted by the Boston Red Sox that wasn't taken over by David Ortiz? The one-hundred year anniversary of Fenway was dominated by him. The post Marathon terrorist ceremony was dominated by him. The World Series ring presentation was dominated by him.

You could say the same thing being true at Yankee Stadium by Derek Jeter. The difference is that Jeter is the captain of the team. Ortiz is not.

All players have egos...big ones. They have been pumped up as special since they were kids in Little League. But it is obvious that Ortiz has the crowning achievement of egos. Those are strong words, I realize, and will provoke anger from Red Sox fans. I wish it wasn't so because many of my friends are such fans and I respect them and the Red Sox. But there are times when Ortiz is insufferable. Forgive me for saying it.

In the patriotic fervor following the Marathon bombing, what Ortiz said was cheered and fist pumped. I found it appalling. Call me old-fashioned, but polite speech should still be the norm and a stadium full of kids should not be given that kind of role model. There is enough of that kind of talk in their own playgrounds. Such a profane statement was pure Ortiz bravado at its worst and he did not care that such a statement would be cringe-worthy to at least 40 to 45% of people watching.

No one can deny what David Ortiz has done with his solitary baseball skill of knocking the stitches off a baseball. No one can deny or take away a career full of major accomplishments in big moments that propelled his team to improbable victories. He doesn't have to field and he doesn't have to run. He just has to hit and no one can deny that he has done that extremely well for his career.

But that doesn't mean that, for those outside of Red Sox Nation, we have to like him. His is a persona that defies objectivity. You either love him or you hate him. Red Sox Nation loves him with an almost bunker-like mentality and it is hard to blame them. Three championships in ten years is hard to argue or not be grateful about.

What I am saying (poorly) is that this gratitude should not always come at the expense of blindness to the fact that his persona and his demeanor are disrespectful and egocentric and does get old for many of those that witness it. Chris Archer was wrong. And yet, in some ways, he was right.

David Ortiz as Thorin Oakenshield

A lot goes through your mind when watching a typical four-hour marathon between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. I have watched thousands of such match-ups being in Maine and in NESN territory or otherwise on national television. And right in the middle of most of them for the last ten years has been David Ortiz. With so much time taken up by a nine-inning ballgame, the mind tends to get some strange thoughts. And one such thought last night was that David Ortiz was the Thorin Oakenshield of baseball.

I have had four main passions in my life. Baseball is one. J.R.R. Tolkien is another when I read his Middle Earth sagas as  an eleven-year-old in 1967. The Beatles and God. Those have been my four. I have combined these passions on a number of occasions. But I don't think I have ever combined Tolkien and baseball. But the thought persisted yesterday about Ortiz and the King Under the Mountain.

Bear with me here. I understand this is a weird thought. But here are the comparisons:

• Both sit on the sidelines most of the time while the rest of their teammates do most of the work.
• Both like to have every eye on them and dress to the nines.
• Both have this grand sense of who they are.
• Both consider themselves the most important member of their company.
• Both have had chips on their shoulders about how they have been treated in life.
• Both make a grand spectacle when they finally become part of the action.
• Both are bigger than life.
• Both have detractors. Thorin, the elves and Ortiz, Yankee fans.
• Both are begrudgingly given the respect they are due because when they have big moments, they have really big moments.

Thorin died with his sword on his chest and with a special stone. Someday in the distant future, David Ortiz will die with the bat on his chest and plenty of special stones on his fingers.

BBA Linkfest - General holiday greetings

I have not done this in a while and it is time to get back at it. I am the president of the General Chapter of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. General is such a bland word. I think of generic when hearing the word. But that is far from the case as you see the links below. General simply means that the writers of this chapter write about everything baseball and are not specifically a site about one team or fantasy baseball or something like that. They are a great group of people writing about baseball because they love it. This post is about their work.

What I do is go to each site and pick out one of the posts I find there. It is a time-consuming thing to do, but there is a lot of rewarding reading that occurs because of it. I have done the work for you, so all you have to do is click the link and enjoy yourself. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from this Flagrant Fan to you wherever you are.

The links:

A radio personality has issues with Matt Harvey. The Hall of Very Good rightly pokes a few holes in the stupidity of what the radio guy said.

In its most recent post, Off Base Percentage's Mike Hllywa took a look at the Yankees' spending spree this off season.

Over at The Golden Sombrero, Mike Rosenbaum posted some video from the recent Arizona Fall League featuring Austin Hedges, a Padres' prospect catcher.

This post from Grubby Glove is the oldest of the link list, but it was such a fine piece and such a noble thing, that I linked it anyway.

If podcasts are your thing (and I like them a lot), Eric and Jana from #Off the Bat presented by Number One Baseball had a great time discussing the off season.

TheNaturalMevs of Diamond Hoggers has some real juicy gossip for you concerning the Tigers and Prince Fielder. I needed a napkin for this one.

My friend, J-Doug is a brilliant, brilliant guy. His most recent post at Rational Pasttime gives us a real cool win probability map of the most recent World Series and David Ortiz's role in it.

Mike, over at The Sports Banter left a blueprint of what the Mets' off season should look like. At least one of his suggestions has already come true.

Our German entry, Dugout 24, has an interesting article (once translated - thank you Internet!) about aluminum bats.

Ben, of Ben's Baseball Bias, gave his thoughts on the trade between the Cardinals and Angels that swapped David Freese and Peter Bourjos.

Did you know that the Mets have a Santa Claus curse? Just ask David Wright. Michael Clair of Old Time Family Baseball has all the details.

I don't always agree with Sully of Sully Baseball. But he is easily one of the most entertaining podcasters in baseball today. Here is one of his latest.

The Sisco Kid put a lot of thought on the recent mega-contract of Robinson Cano for his most recent post at Baseball Sisco Kid Style. Definitely worth the read.

I met Dan, the author of Left Field, over the summer at a minor league game. He is not only a multi-talented writer and beer connoisseur, but a great family man and a terrific guy. And he is making head way in the baseball writing world and now writes for High Heat Stats and has his articles featured in a major newspaper. This post I have linked is also his work and it caps the year in music. Awesome stuff.

A lot has happened in the past year for my good friends at MLB Dirt. They are now part of the Field Rush network and are teeming with great writing talent. I am still a part of their roster, but haven't had time to write for them in forever. Here is one of their latest and greatest from Andrew Martin.

Mario Salvini of Che Palle! has some fun with the Matt Kemp gossip that has been keeping TMZ happy.

A lot has also happened with Call to the Pen over the last year as they have become a part of the Fansided network. They also have a large crew of talented writers. Here, one of them reports on the latest Jonathan Papelbon rumor.

One of my favorite buds, Daniel Day of The Ball Caps Blog, has some perspective of our weird money distribution in light of the Robinson Cano deal.

Through the Fence Baseball has to be one of the hardest working baseball blogs in our chapter. One of their terrific team of writers, Jake Mastroianni, has a fine piece on the rebuilding of the Chicago White Sox.

I also met Bryan at a minor league game this past summer and I came away so impressed. In one of the best posts I have read this year, Bryan talks about the 2013 Red Sox and his son. An amazing piece of writing over at Replacement Level Baseball Blog. Like Dan, Bryan also now writes for High Heat Stats.

Chuck Booth of MLB Reports (one of the most faithful #FF guys on Twitter!) has a terrific piece on Tommy John Surgeries over the years.

For the last three years, Graham Womack has invited the public to list the greatest 50 players not in the Hall of Fame. Theo of Hot Corner Harbor has a very interesting post about his selections.

In a really enjoyable piece, Matt Whitener of Cheap.Seats.Please has a great run down of free agent signings. I was torn between picking this piece or the previous one on what all second place teams needed. Cool idea!

Christopher Carelli has neared the big time as he is writing for Yahoo Sports. He deserves every success. His The Baseball Stance blog is a good place to keep up with his various writings and this one shows that he has been watching closely at what the Yankees are doing this off season.

Of all the links here, and I love them all, you HAVE to read this one over at The Baseball Enthusiast. You just HAVE to. Unbelievable writing.

Nik of Nik's Baseball Corner made all his free agent signing predictions back in November. It is fascinating to look back. Nik hits the nail on several and was way off on several. But it's all fun.

The heading of this piece about the Braves acquiring Ryan Doumit (or Dumbmitt as I call him) drew me in immediately. And it gave me a good laugh. But the article is good except for the part about Doumit being a respectable catcher. Check it out at Off the Bench Baseball.

A discussion of the 2013 season's best pitchers is the topic of the latest post over at Payoff Pitch.

Radical Baseball is one of our newer sites and is written by Kenneth Matinale. I love posts like this one on the worst left-handed batters against left-handed pitching over time. Great job.

Another of our newer sites is not happy with the Seattle Mariners' off season and not for the reasons you'd think. Check out Ben's entertaining post over at Know Hitter.

Dave, over at Baseball Roundtable has some Hall of Fame predictions and thoughts.

Did the BBA really get High Heat Stats!? In my chapter!? Woo! That site is the bomb! They used to be the blog for baseball-reference.com until that site stupidly cut it loose. This post by Doug on Seth Smith shows why the site is so great.

Another great new site to the BBA is Baseball Hot Corner. Here is that site's take on the Rangers' new deal with Shin-Soo Choo.

There you have it. Phew! I had forgotten how much time that takes. I was a young man when I started this post. Have a wonderful holiday season and here's to a very good baseball New Years to all of us.

Deion Sanders and 14 / 6

I read a great piece by Stacey Gotsulias on It's About the Money, Stupid as she remembered the terrible 1990 New York Yankees team. There was one mention in the story that piqued my attention: Deion Sanders. Somehow I had forgotten that he began his baseball career as a member of the Yankees. I probably have erased the fact from my memory because Sanders did nothing really memorable for the Yankees and it was not until he went to the Braves that he had some interesting seasons.  As I do whenever I am curious, I quickly glanced at Deion Sanders' player page on Baseball-reference.com. One set of numbers really caught my eye: 14/6.

The year was 1992 and it proved to be Sanders' best year in baseball. Don't get me wrong, to be a two-sport athlete with both the MLB and NFL on your resume is pretty astounding and worthy of admiration. But for most of his time in the Majors, Sanders really was not all that great a player. He had three good seasons out of nine (most were partial seasons, which again was amazing as he split time with his NFL duties). But he was very good in 1992.

Sanders played 97 games for the Braves in 1992 and still compiled 3.2 rWAR. He was a plus center fielder that season with an .841 OPS and 130 OPS+. He also had one of the most memorable World Series in a losing cause against the Blue Jays that season. He came to the plate 17 times in that World Series and got on base ten of them. Call it David Ortiz without the homers.

Okay, but here is the part that caught my eye. That season (1992), he hit fourteen triples. He also hit eight homers. But he only hit six doubles. Fourteen triples and only six doubles. That seemed very odd to me. The guy was blazing fast and it makes sense he would rarely stop at second and head right for third. But these numbers seemed freakish.

If you look at the most recent prolific triples hitters like Jimmy Rollins and Curtis Granderson, the years they hit a lot of triples, they also hit a lot of doubles and homers. So I did some quick work on B-R's Play Index and it turns out that nobody had ever done what Sanders did (with at least ten or more triples) before 1992 or since.

Nobody in baseball has ever had a higher triples to doubles ratio when hitting more than ten triples. The closest anyone ever came to Sanders' 2.33 ratio was Edd Roush who, in 1916, hit 15 triples and seven doubles (a 2.14 ratio). Nobody else ever had a higher than 2 to 1 triple to double ratio. Chief Wilson in 1912 came close with 36 triples and 19 doubles.

I hugely enjoyed both Deion Sanders' and Bo Jackson's careers. What they did was remarkable and I wonder if we will ever see the likes of that again. But what I like best about baseball is that there are always these odd little stats to discover like 1992 when Sanders hit 14 triples and only six doubles.

Red Sox should resist extending David Ortiz

This site is well into its eleventh year and for the last six of those, there has been an annual pondering of what the Red Sox should do with David Ortiz. If you don't believe me, just do a search on his name here and you will find them all. The call here has been something like, No, No, Yes, Yes, Heck yes. All of the "Yes" years have included a caution for going beyond two years. Now, we come to year seven of such pondering since Ortiz has hinted publicly that he wants an extension. The answer this year should be, No.

The Red Sox have handled Ortiz in a brilliant fashion. They took a chance that he would bounce back after the stumbling seasons of 2008 and 2009 and limited his contracts to a year or two at most since that time. The lack of long-term deals has worked perfectly and Ortiz for the third time helped the Red Sox win a World Series. His World Series heroics were the stuff of legend and will be discussed for years.

All the while, the Red Sox have protected themselves from the eventual breakdown that is sure to some day waylay the hulking slugger. His current two-year deal had a lower base with bonuses based on how often he was on the field. Ortiz made the max in 2013 to the benefit of himself and the Red Sox. He will again go into 2014 with the $11 million base and can make as much as $15 million depending on how often he plays.

Depending on which stat site you look at, Ortiz has averaged a valuation of $14.775 million over his last four seasons. So Ortiz has earned what he is worth and the Red Sox have not overpaid. Fortunately, no one has come up with a standardized valuation that includes the post season. But still, the deal has worked out for all parties involved.

Ortiz is entering this last year of his contract for his Age 38 season. And, after what he did with his Age 36 and 37 seasons, there is a reasonable expectation that he can repeat something close to those amazing numbers at the plate this year. But the Red Sox have hedged their bets and well they should.

Sooner or later, Ortiz will give in to Father Time. All ballplayers do. Look at Jeter's sad story in 2013 as a reminder of how quickly it can happen. If that wall hits in 2014 for Ortiz, no harm, no foul as the Red Sox have had a wonderful run with their post-season-smashing team icon. If he again performs near 2013 standards in 2014, then they can string it along a year at a time in 2015.

If Ortiz falters, they can end the relationship with a huge celebration for a guy that helped bring the team three titles.

The Red Sox have handled David Ortiz perfectly through the years. They have allowed Ortiz to make a good living while protecting themselves for what will ultimately happen. There is no reason to end that string of smartness now. Despite the giddiness of another title, the Red Sox should resist the euphoria of what just happened, resist an extension and play the final year of Ortiz's contract out and reevaluate at the end of the season.

Concerns about David Ortiz

David Ortiz has appeared on these "pages" more than just about any other player. For four straight years there was the ongoing debate about whether the Red Sox should extend him or not. At the beginning of that run, the answer was always no because of his size and his age. And sure enough, and with wisdom, the Red Sox kept bringing him back with only one year contracts. This off season, I refrained from my usual speculation, probably because the Red Sox made their decision early and for the first time, extended him two seasons instead of one. This break from their status quo on Ortiz might come back to haunt them.

David Ortiz is not playing this spring. In fact, he is just gingerly running around the bases. The Achilles tendon he hurt at the end of 2011 is still giving him problems. There are new reports now that he will not be ready for opening day. There are other reports that he is currently 260 pounds. All of which add up to a great big deal of concern that the greatest designated hitter of his era could be a loud non-factor this season.

Ortiz was never really well last season. After he hit the ball, watching him run the bases was downright painful. Every time I saw him, I half expected him to collapse in a heap. While he never did, he only played ninety games and as it became clear the Red Sox were stuck in the mud for the 2012 season, Ortiz shut it down completely.

The expectation was that he would come back this season and be healthier. But he is not. He seems to be in the same place as he was last year when the season ended. He is not as young as Ryan Howard, who has also returned from a similar injury. Howard may never be the same again either, but Howard has done a good job at taking care of himself and keeping as much pressure off his legs as possible. Ortiz looks like a caricature of Babe Ruth except he doesn't have the spindly legs.

Fortunately for the Red Sox, they picked up Mike Napoli in the off season. Napoli can replace some of Ortiz's production if Ortiz was to miss an extended period of time. But using Napoli at the DH position weakens the Red Sox' offense because it means Daniel Nava or Mike Carp will have to play first base. The Red Sox are infinitely scarier with both Ortiz in the lineup with Napoli and a lot less scary with one of them out.

Ortiz's leg problems did not affect his ability to hit last year, which is surprising. A hitter gets much of his torque from the lower body. But when Ortiz was able to hit, he creamed the ball. His 1.026 OPS in his 383 plate appearances was remarkable, especially in this day and age of pitching and computer-fed fielding positioning. His hitting hearkened back to his salad days of 2006 and 2007.

There is not a concern that Ortiz can still hit. Whatever ailed his hitting in 2009 has been long gone and his numbers have been superb from 2010 onward. But he has to be able to run after he hits the ball. If it was just a bum knee, then that is one thing. But an Achilles tendon is debilitating when injured and Ortiz looks debilitated. How did he pass a physical?

I should have written about Ortiz after the season last season. I should have had a fifth year of, "should the Sox sign him," but I missed the boat. After a 90 game season last year, I would have either said no or another one year contract. The Red Sox felt they had to make a statement after such a horrid season and Ortiz's two year extension was such a statement. It may turn out to be one which should never have been uttered.

Mulling Valentine's words on David Ortiz

The Bobby Valentine era in Boston will not be forgotten any time soon. And as long as Valentine has a mouth and someone willing to engage that mouth to action, the stories will just keep coming. Valentine has nothing to lose as he has to know that he will never get hired to manage again. So there is no need for him to be protective in what he says. And what he said about David Ortiz is explosive. 

In case you missed it, here is the money quote:

"He realized that this trade meant that we're not going to run this race and we're not even going to finish the race properly and he decided not to play anymore," Valentine said in an interview airing Tuesday night on "Costas Tonight" on NBC Sports Network. "I think at that time it was all downhill from there."

The Red Sox, who are actively trying to extend David Ortiz, of course have blasted Valentine for what he said. The linked article above quotes general manager, Ben Cherington, as saying that he wouldn't be trying to sign Ortiz if what Valentine said was true. But why IS Cherington trying to sign Ortiz? After years of one-year deals and hedging their bets, the Red Sox are suddenly interested in tying up an aging David Ortiz for two seasons? We'll talk more about that in a bit.

And most of the opinions read about what Valentine said have come out strongly against Valentine for saying what he did. But with nothing to lose, why would Valentine make something like that up? Doing so would be out of character for Valentine who has long been known for his honesty...an honesty that has gotten him in trouble.

Here is what this observer thinks: Bobby Valentine was a disaster as the manager of the Boston Red Sox. But that wasn't totally his fault as the players had a culture of entitlement that worked against Valentine from the beginning. It is the opinion here that Valentine was right about Kevin Youkilis but stupid to say so publicly. It is also the opinion here that he is probably right about David Ortiz.

That being the case, the question is, does the truth about Ortiz make him a bad guy here? No, it doesn't. Valentine is old school. In the old school, you played until your arms fell off. You played with concussions and you played with bad wheels. That old school thinking probably ended a lot of careers prematurely. Valentine had an old school player in Dustin Pedroia. "Pedey" would try to play if his head was only attached by a strand to his neck. 

But is that way of playing and thinking the best thing for the team? Was the heroic Pedroia helping his team when he had an OPS of .538 in June? Nope. The little guy should have sat out a few weeks instead. But Pedroia is the old school that Valentine respects.

Ortiz took a different route. He saw the Red Sox had given up on the season. He saw that his heel still hurt and he knew that at least $25 million was on the line with the decisions he made. There is no doubt here that Valentine is correct in what he is saying. But what is being said here is that Ortiz did what was best for his long-term future and made the right decision. This is perhaps his last chance at a big payday. And if he comes back healthier for making the decision, his decision will be good for the Red Sox too.

Getting back to the Red Sox for a second, signing Ortiz for two seasons is a risk and yet a no brain decision. After the season they just had, they have to know it will take a season or two to rebuild that franchise. During that time, they will need to keep the fans engaged in the team. So despite the fact that Ortiz's value comes completely from his bat and despite the fact that the bat was worth the investment the past two seasons after not being so the three seasons prior, it is truly worth it for the Red Sox to keep the old hero around for the fans. They are doing the right thing considering where they are right now even with the risks involved.

And that is why Cherington is so adamant about blasting Valentine's words. But while Cherington and Ortiz's agent might take issue with what Bobby Valentine said, and while public opinion might be against Valentine, Valentine is probably right. Ortiz probably did pack it in for the season. But just because Valentine is right (despite the groundswell of opinion otherwise), doesn't mean that Ortiz's decision was wrong.

Feeling you David Ortiz

David Ortiz feels disrespected. The feeling is understandable. For those of you trying to understand how a guy making $14.58 million a season can feel disrespected, let us put things in real world perspective. Say you are an employee working your tail off every day. Your work has added to your company's bottom line for years. But then your company goes out and hires someone who has not put in the work you have historically, nor, has been that anchor to success like you have and yet, still gets a sweeter deal than you. How would you feel?

How about another example? Say you are a Time Warner Cable customer who has no other competition to go to if you want cable television and high speed Internet access. You have TWC's bundle because you are locked in and you have no other choices. You are paying the outrageous sum of $187 a month because TWC is going to take advantage of your lack of choices and they are heartless SOBs. Then you see offers in their commercials to new customers for drastically less than what you have been paying for years. Sucks, does it not?

David Ortiz has added value to the Red Sox for a number of years. He helped bring a long championship drought to an end, not just once, but twice. His big bat busted up the Yankees on several occasions. He has anchored a cranked up offense for years and helped put fans in the seats at Fenway. Despite his age and a couple of down years, he has roared back to again become one of the top five hitters in baseball the last two season. And yet, the team goes out and signs other players for big money for guaranteed years and all Ortiz can get is one year deals.

His feelings are natural and if we put ourselves in more realistically similar situations and forget the astronomical money involved, we can understand. The problem is that life does not work this way. There is inherent unfairness built into the system. Employees who are not yet with the firm or the baseball team are always more attractive than the workers / players you already employ. The known is always taken for granted. The solid, long-paying customer is always less coveted than new customers. Is it right? No. Is it reality? Yes.

Plus, teams have to stick within valuation guidelines. The Red Sox were one of the first to hire analysts to figure out the cost/reward relationship. They also have to weigh future performance against the past and figure in age and regression models. Baseball players are assets now that have to be assigned a value not just for the current season but in the seasons to come.

It is obvious that in the Red Sox' minds, there is no telling how a 36 year old slugger will fare a year from now. David Ortiz's entire value is based on what he does with the bat. He has no value as a fielder and a negative value as a base runner. The bat is how he makes his money. The bat is how his present and future values are established.

The assumption here is that Ortiz will again be worth about $18.8 million this season, matching last season. Add in the $10.4 million he was worth in 2010 and you have a three year average of $16 million. So the Red Sox are underpaying Ortiz by a million and a half this season. But before the season, his last two seasons of $10.4 million plus $18.8 million add up to $29.2 and when divided by two, comes up with $14.6 million. So the deal the Red Sox gave Ortiz was a square deal based on his last two years.

The human element is that Ortiz is worth something more for the intangible element he has brought to the Red Sox over the years. From that aspect, the way David Ortiz feels is perfectly understandable. But the reality is that the world does not work like that. The world is cold and harsh and bases value on what it can measure. The Red Sox hedged their bet and paid Ortiz exactly his worth in pure baseball performance based on a two year average. You could even say that they took a chance that a 36 year old player would continue to perform at that rate.

You can put David Ortiz down if you want. You can turn it into any kind of "whining" comment that appeals to you. But the truth is that Ortiz is feeling exactly the same way we would feel if we were in his situation. All of us buck the reality of the way the world works. Life is not fair and it never will be. What someone has meant to an organization will always be more important to the giver and not the taker.

If only David Ortiz could run

There is no doubt that David Ortiz is the best designated hitter in the game. The guy can flat out rake. He is batting .371 with an on-base percentage of .426 and a slugging percentage of .670. Unlike a couple of years ago, there seems no safe place or way to pitch him. He is quick inside again. He works the count to his favor. He is just a great hitter. But there is only one other thing he can do to help his team as a DH. Run. The guy can't run. In fact, he runs like Walter Brennan.

And David Ortiz is supposed to be in the best shape of his life. At least that is what the spring reports told us. And that great work Ortiz has done has seemed to do wonders to maintain his acumen at the plate. But did he forget his wheels? From a personal standpoint, it is well known here what a 56 year old man runs like. Ortiz runs like that. The legs are moving, but they aren't going anywhere. There is a hitch and a giddy-up in the attempt. Ortiz looks like that. Take the eighth inning of last night's game with the Baltimore Orioles. The game went thirteen innings before the Red Sox succumbed to the Orioles. Watch this play:

Cody Ross stings the ball toward short on a line. But Hardy made an unbelievable dive and catch. David Ortiz had started running. He tried to get back to first. It took f-o-r-e-v-e-r. Double play. 

Yes, a player is a DH because he can't do much of anything else. David Ortiz might still have a first base mitt around somewhere in case there is an interleague game, but he isn't expected to use it more than once or twice a season. Broken wheel guys like Vlad have manned the DH position since the Rico Carty days. But Ortiz has never had a leg injury. He hasn't blown out his knees. He just can't run. In fact, since 2002, only Konerko has a worse base running score on Fangraphs than David Ortiz. Since that season, Ortiz's base running has cost his team 44.6 runs. That is like 4.4 lost wins in that time frame. 

And not only can David Ortiz not run. He can't slide either. To prove that point, this post will leave you to one of our family's favorite all-time plays. We laugh about it to this day. And here it is. If the embedded video doesn't work, click the link. David Ortiz is the bomb as a hitting DH. There is no other weapon in baseball like him at his position. But gosh, the guy cannot run...or slide. It is almost embarrassing.

Remember this?

Applauding the Red Sox Deal with Ortiz

Last season, David Ortiz became relevant again. It was quite the surprise. And since it has been a tradition in this spot each year to ponder what the Red Sox should do with David Ortiz, such a post was written way back in November. Recently it was announced that the Red Sox and Big Papi have reached a deal to avoid arbitration. The announcement made it kind of fun to go back to those November musings. According to the announcement, Ortiz will be compensated to the tune of $14.6 million for 2012. That's about a million and a half more than what November's post recommended but at least the Red Sox were wise to resist a multiple year deal. So, well done, Mr. Cherington.

As the November post indicated, it is unlikely that Ortiz will earn his contract. And stating that seems like a contradiction to the first paragraph. But it's not really. Sometimes you have to go with a situation that is good for your ball club despite perhaps a bad value judgement on a player's worth. The Red Sox with David Ortiz in the line up in 2012 is simply a better line up than without him. Heading into his thirty-seventh year makes Ortiz a long shot to reproduce what he did last year. And no projection system consulted predicts that he will.

David Ortiz put up a slash line last year of .309/.398/.554. As noted in the November piece, Ortiz hit lefties and inside fastballs again like he did in the past. He cut down on his strikeouts. His season was among the biggest surprises in baseball. All the projections predict he will be more in the .277/.378/.515 range in 2012. That's still potent production at the designated hitter position that few teams will be able to match. With the injury to Martinez in Detroit, no other contending team has a weapon like that in their arsenal. Frankly, the projections seem a bit optimistic, but the thoughts here remain the same: The Red Sox line up will be better with David Ortiz than without him.

But that fact remains that David Ortiz is a risk. As we saw in the early stages of 2009 and 2010, what Ortiz does well can disappear just as fast. By resisting a multiple year offer, the Red Sox have continued to protect themselves from an older player suddenly declining past the reclamation point. And by signing the deal at below Ortiz's asking point in an arbitration deal probably saved them a few million if Ortiz would have won his case. In the end, the Red Sox probably paid more than market value. But the move was a wise one.

There is no doubt that David Ortiz could have one more good season in him. If he does, the Red Sox will be that much tougher to beat. If he doesn't, the Red Sox haven't sunk a cost beyond the upcoming season. Well done. Well done, indeed.

Fourth Annual David Ortiz Pondering

This off season will mark the fourth straight this writer (and a billion others) will be pondering what the Red Sox should do with David Ortiz.  In the first annual pondering, the Red Sox were encouraged to break ties with Ortiz. That was after his 1.9 ($8.4 million) fWAR season 2008. The second annual version was the same as Ortiz was even worse and had a 0.3 ($1.2 million) fWAR season in 2009. The third annual edition changed its tune after Ortiz posted a 2.6 ($10.4 million) fWAR season in 2010. That edition said that the Red Sox should pick up his option for 2011 but not sign him to a new long-term contract. That's exactly what the Red Sox did. Now, in this fourth annual edition, Ortiz is coming off his best season in quite a long while where he was worth $18.8 million with a 4.6 fWAR season. So what should the Red Sox do?

Ortiz could again hit a fastball again in 2011. He could hit lefties again and he led the league off of them. That was after three straight seasons of being fairly pathetic against southpaws. You could no longer pound him inside to get him out. He had his best line drive percentage since 2005. He had sixty-two less strikeouts than the year before. Unlike the previous four seasons, David Ortiz had positive runs over average against every pitch type thrown at him. So again, what should the Red Sox do?

Ortiz has made $13 million or so the past several seasons. That doesn't seem like a lot of money for the threat that David Ortiz gives a line up. If you add up his last four seasons and divide them by four, Ortiz has earned an average of $9.7 million of this $13 million salary. Do you go by that or go solely by his last year's production worth $18.8 million? You have to go with the four year average, right? And you have to consider that David Ortiz will turn 36 five days from now. Clearly, you have to figure his best days are behind him rather than in front of him.

And as good as his season was a year ago, it didn't end well. He hit all of one homer the entire month of September and drove in only eight runs. That has to figure into the equation doesn't it? Ortiz reversed his recent trend of starting terribly and finishing strong to starting well and finishing with a dud of a month. A month which we all know what happened to the Boston Red Sox.

Ben Cherington, Boston's new GM says that a lot of their off season strategy will depend on if David Ortiz "is here" or not "here."  In other words, after last year's post season splurge, there are limited funds and if the Red Sox give a big chunk of change to Ortiz, there is less to do other things. Ortiz is a big part of the Red Sox mystique. He has the persona as a professional assassin, especially in the clutch. How does that figure into Cherington's plans or does it at all? Frankly, that's all a bunch of talk and the only relevant facts here are the numbers, which you have already been given.

Okay, it's time to get to the bottom line. Last year, this observer said the Red Sox should pick up the last year of Ortiz's option. It was a good investement, earning more than $5 million more than his paychecks. The recommendation here is a one year deal only with perhaps an option year for no more than $12 million. That is higher than his four year average, but gives him the benefit of the doubt based on last year. The one year does not tie the Red Sox up for years to come.

That's what the Red Sox should do. It's unclear as to what they will do. Ortiz will ultimately feel slapped in the face with such an offer. Ball players aren't very realistic about their own worth. Perhaps he'll grumble and take it to stay in Boston for another year. If he stupidly gets a higher offer somewhere else, be sure he will take it. But that doesn't mean that the Red Sox should try to match a higher offer if some sort of bidding war develops. His future is not long, nor bright--not when he's 36 and can't play a position in the field. Cherington seems somewhat ambivalent or perhaps he is simply not optimistic that Ortiz will take a reasonable offer. The Red Sox would love to have David Ortiz back. But it should only be on their terms no matter how good he was in 2011.

Annual David Ortiz Apologetic

A writer is supposed to be neutral right? But perhaps when a site is called, "The Flagrant Fan," that's a little silly. As such, there has to be the admission that David Ortiz is this writer's least favorite player in the game of baseball. The Fan hates everything about the guy. The way he spits into his batting glove [ewww], the way he looks so self-assured and cocky, the way he's called, "Big Papi," all grate on the nerves to the nth degree. Of coarse his heroics leading to the obnoxious Red Sox Nation back in 2004 is reason enough to hate the guy. And then there was his calling out of players who were confirmed PED users only to find out that he, himself, was on that list of shame. Never has a player been so rooted against from this corner of the planet.

With such a grand and noble hatred, this writer rejoiced when David Ortiz struggled in 2009. His demise was gleefully predicted...until he had a much better second half and the Fan had to apologize. Then there was more happiness when Ortiz started 2010 so poorly that his manager was getting serious flak for sticking with Ortiz. His manager was right and again, this Fan had to eat crow on those feelings that David Ortiz was done as an effective player. 2010 ended up as a very successful season for the king of designated hitters. Crap. The apologetics were so bad the Fan thought the Red Sox had no choice but to pick up Ortiz's option for 2011.

This season, there were no slow starts. Ortiz hit even when the Red Sox started poorly. He was their only constant. He never gave anyone any reason to question his presence in the Red Sox line up. All he has done all year is hit and hit and hit and hit. So what's the reason for this year's version of the now-annual David Ortiz apologetic? Well, the guy has simply showed that the hatred has no reason for existing.

Ortiz was unbelievable in that 2003, 2004 stretch as he came up big over and over again. Whether his performance was enhanced at the time is irrelevant. He wasn't the only one. He came up so big so often that it was just crazy. His legend was earned. When he was just so-so in 2008 and 2009, his walk rate was unjustified. Pitchers were still fearing Ortiz and simply refused to go right after him when he had two strikes on him. Some of that fear factor had worn off. But that fear became more justified in 2010 and is back in full bloom in 2011 as Ortiz has been outstanding. Alastair Ingram over at Fenway Faithful Report has an eloquent take on the fear being back in pitchers. David Ortiz is as good as ever.

Drat. So again, for the third straight year, this Fan has to humble himself in the sight of the world and state for the record that David Ortiz very often hits the ball very well. He is hitting lefties again, as Ingram pointed out so well. For several years, he couldn't do that. His strikeout rate has tumbled dramatically. That rate was at 24.8 percent in 2009 and 28 percent in 2010. It's only 11.8 percent this year. Perhaps this version of David Ortiz doesn't have to be the man anymore in the Red Sox line up. Adrian Gonzalez has ably assumed that mantle to become the one guy in that line up you have to get out. Ortiz is just a cog now in a great revolving wheel of a great line up. Despite being one of the most lumbering and worst base runners in the majors, he's scored 34 runs already.

David Ortiz is batting .325. His on base average is .392. He is slugging at a .594 clip. His wOBA of .427 is easily his highest since 2007. This Fan doesn't buy the crap about players playing much better in their contract year. But Ortiz and Jose Reyes are making that stance a little tenuous. Both are playing the snot out of the ball and having huge seasons. Ortiz has bucked recent history and has not started the season in a deep hole. Since he traditionally murders the ball in the second half, what will this year bring? That's scary to even think about.

Once again, David Ortiz is a force. Once again, this Fan stands open-mouthed and has to come to grips with reality. Sometimes life really is that "B" word.

The "D" in DH stands for Dinosaur

Vladamir Guerrero had to take a hit to the midsection when the Rangers told him they were going with Beltre and would no longer need Vlad's services. The Rangers, like a growing number of teams are moving away from the DH as a one-guy-with-bad-wheels-swinging-the-bat kind of thing. The Yankees haven't had a prototypical DH since Giambi left. Last year, the Yankees used the DH position as a way to rest starting fielders on a rotation basis. This year, the Yankees seem committed to using Posada as their DH, but don't be fooled by that. Posada might see action in about 110 to 120 games while they continue to use the DH as a rest stop.

The Bay Rays of Tampa didn't get anything from the DH last year and still won the American League East. The Twins rotated the postion based on need. The most telling signal of the times is that Vlad, Giambi, Thome, Branyon, Manny and others are still unemployed. Teams are not overly excited about clogging up the position with guys who can't do anything else. Branyon might be the exception because he can still play first. But how many teams need a first baseman? Not many. Johnny Damon is another exception because he can also play left and first base. But Damon isn't your typical DH nor is he much willing to take a big pay cut and partial playing time.

The only DH types signed so far this winter have been David Ortiz and Hideki Matsui. Matsui can play an occasional game in left, but he is a pretty true DH. There isn't a much truer DH than Ortiz. But the Fan fully expects 2011 to be Ortiz's last hurrah with the Red Sox. The Red Sox, like other teams, would prefer the position become a flexible one giving the team line up options depending on the opposition and the pitcher.

The DH is dying and the "D" probably stands for "Dinosaur" when it comes to that position being held down by an aging, no-field veteran.

All Nine Positions In A Game

There are a few standard trivia questions that get passed around concerning baseball. One of them is: What player has played all nine positions in a major league baseball game? The answer given is usually Cesar Tovar. It seems that Tovar's game has become famous as a unique adventure. But others have lived the odyssey as well. There are four players that have played all nine positions in a game: Tovar, Bert Campenaris, Shane Halter and Scott Sheldon. The latter two were the last and they did both did it in 2000. Bert Campenaris did it first (as far as we know) in 1965, three years before Tovar. But few remember anyone but Tovar. Though considered sort of an prankish sort of feat much like pitching with both arms, it does make for an interesting story.

It seems fair to start with Bert Camparis since he did it first. Campaneris was a Cuban player that began his career in 1964 with the Kansas City Athletics. He was one of the few players that spanned the A's history from the years in KC through the early years in Oakland and then to the powerhouse A's teams of 1970s. Campy, as he was nicknamed, was the A's shortstop for many years and their lead off batter. Known for his speed, he averaged 51 stolen bases for eight seasons between 1965 and 1972. But despite all the stolen bases, he wasn't much of an offensive player. He never scored 100 runs and he never had much of an OBP. He also wasn't that great a shortstop as he made a lot of errors. But he was Campy, and that team was great during his years and thus he seemed to have a better career than he actually did. The truth is, he was a lousy lead off batter other than three years of his career.

But in his second year, on September 8, 1965, Campaneris played all nine defensive positions. He started at shortstop and moved methodically around the diamond. He started at short, then moved to second, then third, then left, then center, then right, then first, then he pitched and finally he caught. Through all of that, he went 0-3 with a walk and a run scored and he stole his 49th base of the season. The Athletics were in last place, 35 1/2 games behind the leader. They played the Angels that day who weren't much better. The Angels were 23 games back and in seventh place. As we will see as we go along, this kind of thing doesn't happen on contending teams.

Campanaris played 39 games in the outfield that season, so that wasn't particularly novel. But the game featured the only time in his career that he played first, catcher, right field or pitched. The funny thing was that he got a chance at every position. He did make an error in right field though.

It was the eighth inning when Campy came in to pitch. The A's were leading at the time, 3-2. The second Angel run scored on Campy's error in right field. Campaneris got the first out on a Jose Cardinal pop up to second. But then Pearson walked and Fregosi walked. Adcock followed with a single to score Pearson but then, mercifully, Knoop hit into a double play. The inning pitched would today be known as a blown save in a game the A's lost in 13 innings. Perhaps the A's didn't care about losses at that point in the season, but starting pitcher, Dick Joyce couldn't have been too happy to lose out on a win. It was a memorable stunt, but the reality is that it cost the A's the game.

Tovar's game came in 1968 on September 22. Tovar was from Venezuela and was a contemporary of Campanaris as Tovar debuted a year after Campy did. But for a stretch between 1966 through 1972, Tovar was the much better player. Tovar was ahead of his time and was a super utility guy that happened to play every day. He played over 200 games in his career at several positions including third base, second base, left field, centerfield and right field. He also played 77 games at shortstop. But he only had one appearance as a catcher, a pitcher and a first baseman and that was on September 22, 1968.

The game was in Minnesota at Metropolitan Stadium and the Twins played the Athletics. Campaneris was on the other side watching someone else pull off his trick this time. But unlike Campanaris, Tovar was the starting pitcher so at least he couldn't blow somebody else's game. But he wouldn't have as his inning on the mound went really well. Campenaris popped out foul to third, Reggie Jackson struck out. Danny Cater walked and then Tovar balked him to second. But Cater died there as Tovar got Sal Bando to foul out. That's a good inning!

Tovar then caught the second inning. Tom Hall relieved him on the mound and pitched a great game. Tovar then went to first base in the third. He had one chance there, but it would have been a tough one as he got a ground ball and had to feed the pitcher covering first. But it was successfully completed. Tovar moved to second in the fourth and caught a pop up. The then went to short in the fifth with no action other than covering second. It was on to third in the sixth and got no action. He moved to left in the seventh and got two putouts on a liner and a fly ball. It was on to center in the eighth and he had one putout on a fly ball that ended up being a sacrifice fly. He played right in the ninth with no action and his mission was complete. Tovar went 1-3 in the game with a stolen base, a run scored and a walk. The Twins won the game.

Jose Oquendo played with the Mets and the Cardinals from 1983 to 1985. He had the nickname of, "Secret Weapon." The name would fit because of all the positions he played (he pitched in three games in his career) but he wasn't that great a player. He had two decent seasons in 1988 and 1989. But other than his super utility status, he didn't have that great a career AND he never played all nine positions in a game. He played all nine positions in the 1988 season, but that's not the same thing (though impressive). And thus, we once again learned not to believe everything we read.

We jump now to the year 2000 when two players pulled this stunt. One of them was Shane Halter, a thoroughly forgettable player who played all or parts of eight seasons for the Royals, Mets, Tigers and Angels. He was only a semi-regular for two seasons (2001, 2002) and those seasons were his only seasons with a WAR above zero. Halter's claim to fame again came from being a super utility guy. He played over fifty games at five different positions and more than 15 games at seven positions. He also caught twice and pitched twice. He had the game of his life though on the last day of the season (October 1) in 2000. That was the game he played all nine positions, batted 4-5 with four RBIs and he scored two runs including the game winning run in the ninth inning. In between, he played all nine positions. He only pitched to one batter and that batter walked, so Halter didn't even have an ERA that season.

Halter started the game at first base and in the inning, fielded a grounder from David Ortiz that he flipped to Moehler to get the out. In the second inning he moved to third and had one grounder that he fielded without problems. He went to right field in the third and didn't have any putouts, but he got his exercise running down two doubles to the gap. The next inning he went to center and had a putout on a fly ball, then it was to left field in the fifth. He did not get any putouts there, but there were two doubles hit his way. There is no telling from the box score if a better fielder would have had them. But if Moehler was upset about all the doubles, he should have stopped pitching where they could hit the ball to Halter.

Halter played short in the sixth and did not have any assists or putouts, but he was certainly busy as the Twins scored five times in the inning. Halter must have been running around a lot that inning too. In the seventh, Halter went behind the plate. The move forced Brad Ausmus to move to third. Halter got his money's worth behind the plate as the Twins scored three more runs and he was back there a long, long time. In the eighth, he pitched to and walked the first batter and then moved to second base, where he stayed the rest of the game.

Scott Sheldon might have had the most undistinguished career of this bunch. He played a total of only 141 major league games spread out over five seasons. But again, he played all over the field  He had multiple games at seven different positions, but only pitched and played first base once, on September 6, 2000 in Comiskey Park II. And unlike the three previous instances we've talked about, this one game for Sheldon seems like a fluke that wasn't planned. The White Sox blew out the Rangers in the game 13-1 and were ahead in the game 10-0 by the bottom of the second. Secondly, Sheldon didn't even get into the game until the fourth inning. Entering the game so late, he had to move fast to play all the positions. It helped that he entered the game as a catcher, replacing Bill Hasselman. He moved to first in the fifth. He played short and second in the sixth. He played right and center in the sixth and then he went to left in the seventh.

It was the eighth inning where it really got interesting. He started the inning in left for his seventh position. Then he pitched a third of an inning, striking out Liefer for his only batter. Then he went to third to finish out the game.

And there you have it. A complete run down of the four guys that played all nine positions in the same game. Of current major league players, only Bill Hall seems like a current candidate to repeat the "history" of this stunt. Hall has played multiple positions...everything really...except catcher. Hall has even pitched and was recorded with an 89 MPH fastball. If the feat is going to be done again, Bill Hall is the guy. But again, the feat requires a meaningless game played by a team going nowhere.

***UPDATE***  Was just thinking: If a player would start the game at DH, this record can be broken! There could be ten positions in the game. Of course, the AL team would have to go without the DH the rest of the game...

Papi Had a Better Year than Vlad

The Commissioner's Office announced that Vladimir Guerroro won the Edgar Martinez Outstanding DH Award. While it remains a puzzle to this writer on who votes for such an award that apparently has been around since 1973 and was renamed for the guy who won it five times, they got it wrong. The only criteria that you can vote on for such an award is offensive production. There is, of course, no fielding. And by the only criteria available to us (offense), Ortiz had a better year.

Here are some comparisons:

OBP - Ortiz (.370), Guerrero (.345)
SLG - Ortiz (.529), Guerrero (.496)
OPS - Ortiz (.899), Guerrero (.841)
OPS+ - Ortiz (137), Guerrero (122)
WAR - Ortiz (3.3), Guerrero (2.4)
Runs - Ortiz (86), Guerrero (83)

The only areas that Vlad beat the Big Papi on were batting average (.300 vs .270) and RBI (115 vs 102). Ortiz struck out more but hit into ten less double plays.

This is purely an offensive award and David Ortiz had the more valuable offensive season. This Fan isn't a big fan of Ortiz, but facts are facts and Ortiz should have won this award.

Lesson Learned: Don't Be Good in the World Series

sAs the Fan predicted right after the World Series, the Giants declined to pick up the option of Edgar Renteria. In that previous post, Renteria's lack of production the last two years cost the Giants about $16 million of value (he made $18 million and was worth about $2 million). So despite Bruce Bochy's emotional tribute to Renteria being a leader and a great man to be next to in the clubhouse and dugout, the Giants effectively have shown that they don't want Renteria any more. At least not at that price.

Renteria now has something in common with Hideki Matsui. Matsui, you'll remember, was 2009's World Series MVP after single-handedly destroying the Phillies to end that series. A few days later, Brian Cashman cut ties with the DH/LF from Japan. And now a year later, Renteria (often called, "Rent-a-rear" in this Fan's house), the 2010 World Series MVP has felt the same fate. There are no tears in baseball. There is no sentiment. If anyone forgets that baseball is a business, these last two years should cure you of that for life.

So let's peak into 2011's crystal ball. Who will it be next year? The Fan already sees the answer. David Ortiz will have a so-so campaign for the Red Sox but then the Red Sox get to the World Series. David Ortiz hits two homers and a double and drives in six runs in the World Series. A few days later, Epstein will announce that the Red Sox have no interest in David Ortiz for 2012. Book it.

Will David Ortiz Get an Extension?

Let's start this post with the obvious: We were all wrong about David Ortiz last year. And the chief, top of the list writer wrong about Ortiz was this writer. The Fan buried him early last year, but at least the Fan wasn't the only one. According to this article, David Ortiz wants an extension and would not be happy with the Red Sox simply picking up his $12 million option for 2011. His reasoning is all the negativity he received last year and the year before (guilty!) and in Ortiz's mind, a multi-year deal would allow Ortiz to just play and have fun and not worry about it. There is no doubt of Ortiz's sincerity. But Mr. Ortiz is simply not dealing in reality.

First of all, David Ortiz DID have a great year last year. His 899 OPS+ and all those homers and RBIs added up to a 137 OPS+. But even saying that, his WAR or Wins Above Replacement came in at 3.3 which is just about perfectly dead on for the $13 million he was earning. That's the good news. The bad news is that it was the first time in the last three years that he came close to earning his salary. The Red Sox could use his bat and if he can come close to his production of a year ago, he would be worth the $12 million option. But, why in the world would the Red Sox do anything other than pick up the option?

Ortiz is going to be 35 next year. He is not an athletic 35. He is a big-bodied, tall son-of-a-gun that needs a lot to go right to catch up to a major league pitch. With each year that passes, he will be less and less able to do that. His peak years physically and statistically are behind him (not going down the PED conversation here). The Red Sox are taking a gamble by simply picking up his option. They would be playing Russian Roulette with five bullets in their gun if they signed him to a multi-year deal.

And what about Ortiz's contention about the extension taking care of the negativity? What exactly does he mean by that? Does he mean that by signing a multi-year contract that he will be all set for the rest of his baseball life and can point to his posterior if someone complains about his production? The Fan can buy that. Does he mean that by signing a multi-year deal, the negativity will go away? Preposterous. It would get worse. The "Red Sox Nation" (shiver) is a pretty smart fan base. If Papi is known to have been given the silver platter and doesn't produce, he will get roasted. And it won't be just the fans. It will be the same talk radio, newspapers, blogs and sports networks that filled him with all that negativity in the first place.

The Red Sox have only two choices here. Either pick up Ortiz's option and tell him to earn more time or don't pick up the option at all. They can't worry about how Ortiz will react to the former choice because if they do, then they should just choose the latter. If they don't pick up the option, they can sign John Buck and let Victor Martinez handle the DH. If they pick up the option, then they have to hope Ortiz hits like 2010 and not like 2008 and 2009. But those are the only sane options. The third option of giving Ortiz a multi-year deal is just not rational and not in the Red Sox best interest. And it is hard to imagine where this writer sits that the Red Sox would not do what's in their best interest.

Apologies, Mr. Ortiz about last year. But no apologies for feeling your current sentiments are all wet.

David Ortiz Clobbering Mistakes

The Fan has watched several games involving David Ortiz over the course of the season and the pattern always seems the same. The pitcher gets two quick strikes on Ortiz and the big man doesn't even come close to hitting the pitches. But then the pitcher can't put him away. Do the pitchers' knees suddenly get weak? Do they believe that the first two strikes were flukes? It's hard to understand.

Last night was typical. Shields is pitching for the Bay Rays. The sequence went like this:

First pitch: Fastball in - Swing and miss.
Second pitch: Curve ball in - Swing and miss.
Third pitch: Fastball outside - Ball one
Fourth Pitch: Curve ball inside - Almost hits Ortiz. Ball two.
Fifth pitch: Fastball outside - Ball three.
Sixth pitch: Curve on inner half - Ortiz just missed a homer and flied out to deep right.

Later on, the pattern repeated itself except this time Ortiz hit a three run homer and the game was for all intent and purposes, over. It seems to this Fan that the pattern has been consistent ever since Ortiz got hot. But how do you prove it?

Well, the Fan went to www.baseball-reference.com one of the most wonderful places on earth and looked at Big Papi's splits for this season and sure enough, Ortiz has put more balls in play on a 3-2 count than on any other count. And it isn't even close. 62 plate appearances have come from a 3-2 count for Ortiz. The second highest is 36 with a 2-2 count. Ortiz has a .968 OPS on those 62 plate appearances.

Ortiz, like most hitters, does the most of his damage when he is ahead in the count. And also like most batters, he does little damage when his plate appearance results from an 0-2 count but that precisely is where pitchers are failing. Only 9 of Papi's plate appearances have occurred on an 0-2 count with only one feeble little single. Compare that to the 62 with a full count.

The numbers seem to match the observations. Ortiz is very willing to let the pitcher try to get cute on an 0-2 count and wait for a mistake. The pitchers usually comply. If the Fan was a pitching coach, the thing the Fan would tell his pitchers would be to put the guy away when you get two strikes on him and never mind futzing around.

David Ortiz is Not a Happy Man

David Ortiz has had a really good May and for the time being has tamed his critics (this one included) who thought he may be done. But he doesn't appear to be enjoying himself and his comeback. In a recent Boston Globe article, he blasts writers (including Buster Olney) for "changing" him from a fun guy into a jerk. The whole article reminded this observer of Sammy Sosa who was fine and "fun" until he started facing criticism in the latter third of his career. Perhaps it is a trait of people from their area of the world to not take criticism very well. But seriously, should the press change who a person is?

Frankly, from the perspective of a struggling working stiff, what does David Ortiz have to be upset about? If you are not performing, you're not supposed to be questioned? If your manager loses faith in you when you are batting .178, he's to be faulted? To be unhappy and feel persecuted when you are making $13 million a years is just preposterous. Give the Fan thirteen million a year and the Fan will take all the criticism you can dish out and would keep smiling. The man is living a charmed existence. He's at the pinnacle of the employment food chart. He works about five hours a day and doesn't even have to play in the field. Unlike a lot of players, the press has basically given him a pass for the steroid allegation he faced (and admitted to). He should thank the press for that.

Last year, Ortiz finished at league average in OPS+ despite a fairly torrid second half. This year his OPS+ is a healthy 116. But we still don't know if the April Ortiz is the real one or the May one is the real deal. We'll see how it all plays out. From what the Fan has seen, pitchers are making a ton of mistakes against him. The Fan reserves the right to reconsider whether he is done or not when the time comes. For now, he seems to have some life left. But not fun.

The Fan's message to Ortiz is pretty straightforward though it is highly improbable he'll ever read this. The message is: Oh boo hoo and poor you. Get over yourself. You've made $39 million over the last three years while the country has been in the throes of a major economic disaster. Cheer up and stop sulking. You have no right to feel the way you do and it's highly unseemly.

Just One of Those Days

Ever have one of those days where the entire day seemed uphill? Where everything you picked up or tried to pick up ended on the floor and every job you attempted had to be done twice or three times to get correct? Yeah. It's been one of those days. Not sure what this post will do to correct things. Surely moods aren't the best moods to write posts from. Heck, that was a lousy sentence with poor construction. See?


As long as things seem more of the dark cloud variety today rather than the silver lining, this post might as well focus on some negative things. Some of them this space predicted long ago and some were just so surprising that it would have been impossible to predict. Either way, there is no joy in reporting on them. They just are what they are.

Let's start with the Cubs. Harden pitched another game on Wednesday and bears no resemblance to the pitcher he has always been before. He lasted all of three innings, walked three and gave up five hits. Granted, the Cubs played shoddy defense behind him and maybe that is the most telling thing about the Harden this year and last. But that can't completely explain how last year he was a combined 10-2 in 25 starts with a WHIP around 1 and 96 hits in 148 innings. This year, he has the same 25 starts and his WHIP is around 1.3 and he's given up 117 hits in 138 innings. That's still pretty impressive except that he only gave up eleven homers last year and has given up 23 this year. Plus, he's only averaged about five and a half innings a start.

For a while, it seemed that by the time Milton Bradley finished the season, his stats would be fairly respectable. But he has gone into another tailspin and is now likely to finish the season below .400 in slugging percentage and below .800 in OPS. Hardly what the Cubs were hoping for. He did manage to play his 123rd game Wednesday night, so that, at least, exceeded expectations.

What about Geovany Soto? He was one of the best catchers in the game last year. This year, he's just a shell of that and his stats in almost every category (except errors) are down this year.

When it is all said and done, it just seems like Lou Piniella is not the right guy for that team. Sure, he has a right to be upset and disgusted with the likes of Bradley and Zambrano. But that's the nature of today's players. Pineilla is a throw back to another era, and people aren't the same as they were then.

There are three teams that fielded starting line ups Wednesday night that did not include a .300 hitter. Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Baltimore. Is there something wrong with the water in that middle section of the country?

The Fan was feeling a little sorry for Mike Hampton today after it was learned that he had surgery to repair a completely torn rotator cuff and will miss all of next year. After all, the guy has tried really hard to compete and just can't stay healthy enough to do so. Then the Fan remembered all the money Hampton has made in the game of baseball and the sympathy went out the window. Hey, that's just the way the mood is today.

Speaking of health, Josh Hamilton will probably miss the rest of the year now. If you could have put Hamilton's numbers of a year ago on this year's Rangers team, how many more wins would the Rangers have? Would they still be in the race? As it is, the Rangers have died and Hamilton's season was stillborn from the start. It's hard to root against Hamilton who overcame so much to have a career again in baseball. His fragile health and his embarrassing bar fiasco have put an end to what was a pretty baseball story. Maybe next year.

Jimmy Rollins had an OBP of .287 the first half and .292 the second half. His second half has been more productive as his slugging percentage went from .355 the first half to .490 the second half. But even so, he has only walked ten times in the second half. Ten times. Can the Phillies really get away with a lead off batter in the playoffs who gets on base that seldom?

Earlier in the season, the Fan said that Jason Varitek was done. Comments were to the contrary as he started the year hitting some homers and stuff. But come on. His average is down to .213 and has particularly tanked since Victor Martinez came over from the Indians. He has had a brutal year with base runners stealing all over the place. Varitek's OPS and OPS+ are up slightly from a year ago, but slightly better than awful is still pretty bad.

And yeah, David Ortiz has hit 24 homers and his OPS the second half is .841 but he is still only batting .251 the second half. He is going to finish the season 30 points below last year in average, 40 points below last year's OBP, 50 points below last year's slugging percentage, 100 points behind last year's OPS and at least 25 points below last year's OPS+. And last year was a down year. Just to put things in perspective, Nick Swisher has a better OPS this season than Ortiz.

Incentive clauses are in the news these days. Magglio Ordonez reached enough at bats to automatically pick up his $18 million in salary next year. That's a lot of tamales for what is now a singles hitter. Kevin Millwood's next start will guarantee him $12 million next year. There is a lot of call for the Rangers to shut him down for the rest of the year. They can't. If they did, they would lose to the union and it will cost them that much anyway. And yeah, $12 million is a lot of money for a league average pitcher this year (his best in quite a while too).