Intangibles and x-factors

Players of the World Series Champion, San Francisco Giants, were celebrating last night after the sweep was completed. Such celebrations are always fun to watch, even if it is not your favorite team. These are, after all, human beings and watching any human beings that are extremely happy brings a measure of joy intrinsically. The media would pull some players out of the melee for individual interviews. One that stood out was Barry Zito's. Zito, one of the unlikeliest of post season heroes, then said the magic words. Zito said that his team had intangibles and that x-factor to get the job done. Okay, here we go again.

Zito would go on to relate how during Game Five of the NLCS, Hunter Pence gave a speech that left the team speechless and the team took off from there. That moment was watched in this living room up here in Maine. Two things were noticed at the time. First, Pence looked like a crazy man and froth was fully expected to be seen coming from his mouth. The second thing noticed at the time was that shortstop, Brandon Crawford, went around the frenzy in the dugout to get to the other side of the dugout and the look on his face suggested that he thought Pence was crazy too and gave the entire proceedings a skunk-eye.

But that was the moment Barry Zito was mentioning. Another interview of manager, Bruce Bochy, also led the manager to talk about how his players were selfless and loved each other and that this team spirit led to the victory.

The first response here is skepticism. But then again, you have to understand that this observer never watches college sports because the whole rah-rah thing seems so otherworldly. After all, the core of the Yankees' team from 2009 was still in place in the playoffs for 2010, 2011 and 2012. With nearly sixty percent of that team the same from that World Series run to today, why would that "intangible" or "x-factor" disappear? 

And to take that a step further, the Yankees seemed to have it during the ALDS as Captain Intangible, Raul Ibanez, took that mantle from Hideki Matsui from 2009. But that "x-factor" dried up during the ALCS with the Tigers, who seemed to have found it themselves only to lose it during the World Series.

The thought here is that teams pull together as they strive to get as far as they can get into the season. Those feelings of hope and adrenaline lead to a certain level of shared experience among teammates. Those feelings have an edge on them as doubts about the final outcome linger. It is only in retrospect and after that letdown never comes that those feelings lead those players, managers and coaches to turn to a winning euphoria. Only in retrospect does this euphoric feeling transfer into thoughts of something special experienced and the logical conclusion to be that it was intangibles and special team chemistry.

The other thought here is that so much of this is random occurrences. A bunt stays fair, a ground ball hits the third base bag. Pitchers long-ineffective execute perfectly. Things just happen. And yet, this skepticism brings some personal doubts.

After all, so many players, coaches, managers, etc. believe in it and these thoughts get repeated so often all across the spectrum of sports that perhaps this skepticism is misplaced. Who knows.  

The bottom line here, from this seat, is that fans of the San Francisco Giants got a wild ride this fall and fans of the Detroit Tigers had a thrill ride that ended in disappointment during the World Series. The performance of Prince Fielder does not detract from the season he had or the talent he possesses. It just did not work out this time. Perhaps next year, the Tigers can get back to this place and win it next time. And perhaps if that happens, interviews from players will say that it was a magical team that pulled together and made it happen together. Whatever.  

Game Picks - Sunday: October 28, 2012

Yesterday's pick was a case of this game picker outsmarting himself. The logic was right there in the form of the ALCS in which the Tigers did to the Yankees what is now being done to them. If you read last night's post, you'll see how similar this World Series performance by the Tigers was to the Yankees' in the ALCS. Heck, the team OPS in the two series is remarkably similar for the team being swamped. In the end, as the Tigers' fans sat in stunned silence at the end of the game--their first chance to cheer the hometown Tigers on in the World series--the result seemed so inevitable that no other outcome seemed possible.

The gut said to pick the Giants yesterday. The gut was ignored. Why? Because two straight series couldn't happen like that in a row, right? Lightening does strike twice and yet an old saw says it does not. The old saw was believed instead of the logic that was right there.

And so the pick was wrong. But what of today? Is the end just as inevitable? Will the Tigers at least make a show of it? Will they at least give their home fans one win? It's time to pick the game:

• The Giants over the Tigers: If this pick is correct, it will be the last of the baseball season. How sad is that? And yet, as inevitable as the pick seems, the pick is troubling. Matt Cain is the Giants' ace. But he is not an ace that doesn't bend. He does bend. He usually gives up a run or two. Well...except when he throws perfect games. But the fact that he does bend is what makes the pick troublesome because Max Scherzer, when he is on, can be harder to hit than Verlander. If Max Scherzer has his best stuff, batters are helpless. Despite their ace at the top of the rotation, Scherzer gives the Tigers their best chance to win. But that would be picking against the tide. Such a pick would be to deceive what we've already witnessed. And what we have witnessed is indeed lightening striking twice.

Yesterday: 0-1

World Series: 2-1

Post Season: 16-20

Season: 1,349-1,037

The Tigers have become the Yankees and yet they're not

After the first three games of the 2012 World Series, the Detroit Tigers have become a parallel universe from what happened to the Yankees in the 2012 ALCS against this same Tigers' team. After tonight's 2-0 loss to the San Francisco Giants, the Tigers now have scored just three runs in three games. How closely do they parallel what the Yankees did in the ALCS? The Tigers' OPS in the World Series now stands at .486. The Yankees' OPS in the ALCS was .488. How does this happen?

The best way to answer the question is to define what it is not. The first thing the narratives will say is that both teams lived by the long ball and died by the long ball. The so-called one-dimensionable aspect of the Yankees and the Tigers will be ballyhooed as the trumpet call for what went wrong in the post season. Of course, that is so bogus that we shouldn't even have to talk about it. What we are looking at is a short series and a random series of events that happen when such a short stretch of time is measured.

The teams didn't have speed, the pundits will say. But when both teams tried to add speed, it fell completely flat. Brett Gardner did nothing for the Yankees in those last two games of the ALCS and Quintin Berry has done nothing for the Tigers.

The next big narrative is that the bats just went cold. If you have a four game stretch in the middle of the season where the team does not hit, nobody notices because it is just four games in the middle of 162 and things tend to even out according to the ability of the players. But these four games (three for the Tigers) are in the most public spotlight of the entire baseball world. And so the explanation is the blanket cold bats idea.

Another narrative is that the Giants were just awesome on the mound and executed their pitches perfectly. Well, yeah, they did most of the time, just like the Tigers did against the Yankees. But the Yankees had some chances and the Tigers have had some chances and it just did not work out. Credit has to go to the Giants' pitching staff for executing a plan that is working. Just like you have to credit the Tigers' staff against the Yankees. But again, it's just a random series of events that turned into brilliant pitching for a four game series. If these pitchers were this good, they would have better records during the season, right?

But there is one major difference between what is happening to the Tigers and what happened to the Yankees. When it happened to the Yankees, the roar became deafening concerning Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Nick Swisher. It was so much so that the Yankees caved in or bought in to the outrage and started messing with their core team the last two games. The results were exactly the same.

The Tigers will stay with the guys who got them to this dance. Prince Fielder is one for ten with no extra base hits. He struck out twice tonight and hit into a big double play. Nobody is going to scream for him to get benched and Jim Leyland will never even think about such a scenario. Jhonny Peralta is one for eleven. Better get him out of there. No chance!

There are two things to remember about what happened to the Yankees and what is happening to the Tigers. The first is that this fluke of circumstances does not negate what the two teams did during the season or mean that their teams were too flawed to win their series. The second is that it does not mean that the two teams' players were choke artists or forgot how to hit during a short series. All it means is that when all the stars aligned just so, the Giants were able to eke out a few runs while keeping the Tigers from scoring hardly any.

And barring the biggest miracle in the history of the World Series, the Tigers and its players will be remembered fondly by its fans for the 2012 season and the Yankees will have fans and radio talk shows (and some media members) calling for the team to get blown up because they suck.

On this big a stage and in such a setting with only four games needed to win or lose a season, stuff happens. It's not fun when it happens to your team or your players. But that's what it is...stuff that happened.

Game Picks - Saturday: October 27, 2012

The World Series moves to the cold confines of Comerica Park today and temperatures are supposed to be in the upper 30's by the end of the game. Of course, that would be different if Major League Baseball and their sugar daddy, Fox, would allow any of the World Series to be played during the day. But we can't have that. After all, who needs to have kids watching for the next generation and those kids are certainly less important than Fox losing their precious college football games on Saturday or their prime time revenue stream.

By the way, just out of curiosity, have any of you paid MLB extra to have a few extra camera angles on MLB.tv? Just wondering. You're still stuck with Buck and McCarver, right? So it's not like you get a break with the announcing crew unless you are allowed to switch to the radio broadcast.

Everything has gone the Giants' way thus far in the series. Will that take them all the way to a sweep? Here's the pick:

• The Tigers over the Giants: A little home cooking should help the Tigers, even if what's cooking will freeze in the pan. Plus, for the first time in the series, they will face a right-handed starter in Ryan Vogelsong. They are a much better team against right-handed pitching. Vogelsong has had a terrific post season run thus far, but traditionally, he's not as good on the road. The Tigers go with Anibal Sanchez, a talented pitcher with a lot of different weapons in his arsenal. Sanchez has also pitched well in the post season and has good career numbers versus the Giants. The big thing is for the Tigers to take an early lead so this does not become a bullpen game. Their bullpen is a mess and will lose the game if it comes to that. The Tigers do not want to face the back end of the Giants' bullpen if they can help it. Look for Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder to come up big in this one. The DH helps the Tigers more than the Giants.

Thursday: 1-0

World Series: 2-0

Post season: 16-19

Season: 1,349-1,036

Game Picks - Thursday: October 25, 2012

Yes, October baseball is always unpredictable. In the first game of the 2012 World Series, Barry Zito easily out-pitched Justin Verlander and even singled in a run against the stud pitcher along the way. The Giants would go on to score more runs in the game (8) than the Yankees managed against the Tigers in four games total. Heck, with three homers and a run scoring single, Pablo Sandoval drove in only one less run in the game than the entire output of the Yankees. What a crazy game baseball is.

You've got to love the narratives the MSM latches on to in these games. During several cutouts for commercials, FOX would show the fierce look on Angel Pagan's face after his double. What a gamer, eh? What a big time player. Oh brother.

So anyway, Game Two is tonight and a pick has to be made. Did you happen to notice that yesterday's pick called the Giants' win? Let's see if it can go 2-0 for the series. The pick:

• The Giants over the Tigers: Yeah, yeah, Doug Fister is a big time post season pitcher. He's had two good outings this season too. And Madison Bumgarner is supposed to be a bad thing having to pitch for the Giants. Say what!? Has everyone forgotten what Bumgarner did to the Rangers two years ago in that World Series? He won sixteen games this season with a 3.90 strikeout to walk ratio! Here's the deal: Bumgarner has supposedly found a flaw as to why he was struggling. He will pitch well. Doug Fister has pitched well and that will continue, but he doesn't go deep into games lately. The Giants will foul off and run up the pitch count. The Tigers will then have to get into their bullpen. Game over. The orange towels fly.

Yesterday: 1-0

Post season: 15-19

Season: 1,348-1,036

Game Picks - Wednesday: October 24, 2012

After a long 162 game season, wild card games, division series and championship series, we have finally made it to the World Series. There is no other sport like baseball that tests its players and teams to get to the bottom line. The Detroit Tigers and San Francisco Giants have an opportunity to win it all as the World Series starts tonight. Will it be a drama-filled event? Will one team dominate and make this a one-team celebration? At this point, anything can happen.

It is said that the Tigers are in a better place because they are rested and have their rotation set up perfectly. Apologies to those that think that way, but a short series is a crap shoot, plain and simple. The best laid plans can turn to dust in a heartbeat. Come on, did anyone expect Marco Scutaro to be the hero of the NLCS? Marco Scutaro!? And the climax of the series was Barry Zito pitching the game of his broken down life? Who saw that coming?

So, yeah. Talk about who is in a better place all you'd like. The series starts at 0-0 and neither team has the advantage other than the Giants getting an extra home game thanks to a player the team won't even allow back on the field (see Jeff Passan's column today--excellent).

The prediction here is that the Giants will win the series in six. But that is just a guess. What actually happens is anyone's guess. Whatever the case, the Game Picks will end the year with this series. So let's start it off right.

The game pick:

• The Giants over the Tigers: Call this picker crazy, because Justin Verlander is a great pitcher. But he is not unbeatable. That Giants home crowd will be nuts, absolutely nuts. Barry Zito is the zeitgeist star of the post season. He exemplifies all that can happen in a short series in its glorious unpredictability. Of course, the Tigers have a ton of right-handed bats they can throw at Zito. But they also have lousy fielding. Fielding won't matter if Verlander strikes out fifteen. But we'll see. Everyone in the world is picking Verlander to win. This pick flies in the face of all of that. We'll just have to see what happens.

Monday: 1-0

Post season: 14-19

Season: 1,347-1,036