Winning Without A-Rod

Alex Rodriguez has missed 58 games for the New York Yankees this season. That's a significant loss of playing time. And yet, with the exception of deep inside the bowels of the Yankee blog universe, the story has been nearly invisible. And even in that Yankee blog universe, the usual story about A-Rod's missed time is that the team has a .577 winning percentage when A-Rod plays and a .655 winning percentage when A-Rod doesn't play. But if anyone thinks that the Yankees are a better team without Alex Rodriguez, they have been visiting the medical marijuana facility far too often.

Perhaps this has been such a non-story because the Yankees have the best record in the American League. Who cares if A-Rod has been missing? The Yankees haven't missed a beat. You could even make a case that the offense hasn't suffered at all with his absence. The Yankees have scored 5.41 runs a game in games A-Rod played and 5.36 runs a game when he hasn't. That is such a small statistical difference that it would seem it matters little if at all whether he plays or not.

But it does matter and it will matter heading into the post season. Perhaps we shouldn't be looking at how the team has performed without or with A-Rod. That could be the biggest point that is missing in looking at such grand statistical claims. A Yankee win or loss depends on a lot of factors including pitching, hitting and defense of not only every Yankee who participates in the game but also the opposing team's pitching, hitting and defense. In other words, one player a winning percentage doesn't make. Instead, you have to look at who plays third, either A-Rod or others and how they have performed at that position when they play.

Let's start with fielding. Uh oh. We're in trouble already because everyone knows that fielding metrics aren't an exact science (yet) and we shouldn't look at one year's UZR to gauge a player's fielding. But we'll push all that aside and look at one year anyway. A-Rod has played 703 innings at third base. In those 703 innings, he's posted a UZR of 10.8. All other Yankees have played 625 innings at third base (A-Rod has DHed quite a bit due to his ailments) and have compiled a combined -4.8 UZR. That's a 15.6 run difference. And since ten runs generally lead to a win, A-Rod's play at third is a 1.5 win difference over other third basemen just in fielding alone.

Then there is batting. Alex Rodriguez has added 15.5 batting runs to the Yankees' line up. Again, that's the equivalent of a win and a half. All others that have played third base for the Yankees have a total of -11.8 batting runs. That's almost a three win difference between A-Rod's batting and anybody else the Yankees have employed at third.

Then there are the stats you can get your hands on easily. A-Rod has an .842 OPS. Eduardo Nunez is sitting at .667 and Eric Chavez at .694. A-Rod's on base percentage is .367. Nunez sits at .301 and Chavez at .331. A-Rod has thirteen go-ahead hits (hits that put his team in the lead). Nunez and Chavez have had eight combined.  A-Rod has a wOBA of .369 while Nunez and Chavez are at .299 and .301 respectively.

Don't let the win-loss records and runs scored per game fool you when it comes to if Alex Rodriguez plays or doesn't play. Despite only playing 90 games, Fangraphs rates A-Rod as the fourth most valuable third baseman in baseball this season. The Yankees are a much better team with A-Rod in the line up and fielding his position at third base. If A-Rod can be healthy and in the line up during the post season, the Yankees will have a greater chance of winning than if he isn't.

Alex Rodriguez and Intentional Walks

No matter how you may want to view Alex Rodriguez and his career, the one thing you have to admit is that he's been a prodigious slugger. One of only a handful of players to hit more than 600 homers, he also has quite a batting resume. His lifetime slash line is: .302/.386/.568. He's driven in 1884 runs and before he is done could become one of the few players ever to drive in over 2000 runs. But there is a curious thing about Alex Rodriguez and his statistics. He's only compiled 88 intentional walks in his career. Why would that be?

The intentional walk is a somewhat modern invention. Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig didn't have intentional walks. Well, that's not entirely true. There have always been intentional walks. They tried without success to ban them in 1920 for example. The correct way to say this is that they only started recording intentional walks in 1955. So guys like Ruth and Gehrig were intentionally walked, but there is no way of knowing how many of their recorded walks were intentional. The 1955 date of beginning to record intentional walks is troublesome as well because that was mid-career for guys like Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle and Ernie Banks.

But even with that said, Mays, Aaron, Mantle and Banks were all afforded the "four-finger salute" many more times than Alex Rodriguez. Again, why is that? To prove the point, take a look at this little spreadsheet this writer put together:

As you can see, on this list, only Jose Canseco hit more than 450 homers and had less intentional walks per homer than Alex Rodriguez. You could understand that to a degree because Canseco was an all or nothing kind of hitter. But Alex Rodriguez has been a much more balanced, all around hitter than Canseco ever was. So what gives?

In A-Rod's first six years, he batted in front of Ken Griffey, Jr. for the Seattle Mariners That would explain some of those early years. Griffey, as you can see on the list above compiled far more IBBs than A-Rod because there wasn't a hitter to protect Griffey like Griffey protected A-Rod. But even so, In 1996, A-Rod hit 91 extra base hits and batted .358. You would think you might want to take your chances with Griffey, no? By 1998, A-Rod was clearly the better hitter. But from his rookie season in 1994 to 1999 (the Griffey years), A-Rod was intentionally walked only four times.

In 2000, Griffey was gone and Alex Rodriguez had another great season but was nearly matched in hitting performance by Edgar Martinez. Still, A-Rod was the guy. His IBBs increased to five. But Edgar Martinez was intentionally walked eight times and even Jon Olerud was intentionally walked eleven times.

In 2001, Alex Rodriguez was with the Texas Rangers and hit 52 homers. His 1.021 OPS was clearly the best on what was one of the best offenses in the game of baseball. He was intentionally walked six times. Rafael Palmeiro was walked intentionally on eight different occasions. Palmeiro had a great season, but was he more fearsome than A-Rod? In 2002, A-Rod hit 57 (!) homers and his IBBs bumped up to twelve--the highest of his career. But he was still outpaced by Palmeiro who was walked intentionally sixteen times.

It wasn't until 2003, his tenth season in the big leagues, that Alex Rodriguez led his team in intentional walks with ten. Palmeiro had nine and Mark Teixeira had six. 

2004 began A-Rod's Yankee years and in his first year, he was intentionally walked six times. Gary Sheffield was given seven free passes that season. From 2005 to 2008, A-Rod led the Yankees in intentional walks with 36 total or an average of nine a season. Eleven was his high water mark with the Yankees in 2007 when he hit 54 homers. Since 2009, his totals went from seven in 2009 (Teixeira had more) to one in each of the past two seasons. It's been common in the past couple of years for Teixeira to be walked to get to A-Rod. Plus, with the emergence of Robinson Cano, nobody wants to face him with runners on base.

Alex Rodriguez is in his eighteenth season and again, has been one of the most prolific run producers in major league history. And yet, despite that fact, he has averaged only seven intentional passes per 162 at bats. For a slugger his caliber, nobody has been intentionally walked less. It's puzzling. It might even be confounding. And the lack of free passes might be one of the reasons he shares the major league record for career grand slams. Has it been a lack of respect? Has it been the deepness of the line ups he's been a part of? It can't be because of the myth that he isn't a clutch player. A-Rod has a .943 career OPS with runners in scoring position and a .966 career OPS in high leverage situations.

It's certainly puzzling. But there it is.

Gnash Your Teeth - A-Rod's Back

Many have chosen to enjoy the fact that Alex Rodriguez seemed to regress over the past few years. That he was no longer among the elite players of the league made people happy. See? The guy can't play without steroids. See? He's getting old. See? How stupid the Yankees are for paying him so much. Unfortunately for these folks, Mr. Alex Rodriguez came into Spring Training in his best shape in years thanks to finally being cleared by doctors to do full flexibility workouts years after his hip surgery. A-Rod ripped the ball all over Florida and in the early going, he's doing it in the games that count too.

If you look over at Fangraphs.com and their leader board, these are the top five right now in baseball. There's Tulowitski--another guy getting healthy now. There is Matt Kemp, who is enjoying life after Larry Bowa. Both are sitting with a 1.3 WAR. Right below them and tied with 1.0 is Joey Votto (whom you would expect), Colby Rasmus (who is having a breakout season) and Alex Rodriguez. And A-Rod leads them all in wOBA and wRC+.

Having watched A-Rod play for a long time, this does not have the feel of an early season fluke (ahem - Miguel Montero). He started like this in 2007 and he never let up. Yeah, he had more early homers in 2007, but he was just as locked in and it carried through the entire season. Watching him this early season, you can just see he knows he's going to hit the ball hard. You can sense that he feels comfortable and focused. No, he's not going to finish with a 1.400 OPS, but there is no doubt that barring injuries, he can climb his way back to his familiar 1.000 and higher.

Consider that a year ago, when everyone could see that he couldn't move vertically, he still hit 30 homers and slugged over .500. Consider that some scouts are saying that he has more freedom in his hip movement than they've ever seen from him...ever. Everyone at Yankee Stadium III knew he was going to get a big hit in the tenth inning against Baltimore yesterday. Watching him, you just knew. He might make an out, but he was going to hit the ball really hard. He did and he didn't make an out.

You may hate him, but he's back and as good as ever. His head and his place with his teammates have never been better. Barring injury, Alex Rodriguez is going to have a monster season. The Fan is greatly sorry if that is disturbing to many of you. But if you can put your prejudices aside for a few moments and watch the guy hit, what Alex Rodriguez is doing now is as pretty as it gets in baseball.

What Does A-Rod Mean?

[[switching to first person]] We have been told by so many people on how we should feel about Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez that I simply cannot figure out how I feel about his 600th home run. It seems fitting that I've watched every game of the "chase" to 600 until today (because I forgot it was a day game). His entire career has been elusive and political. The fact that becomes so hard to grasp is that this may be the finest ballplayer this side of Barry Bonds that we'll ever see. Why can't we enjoy it?

I want to like A-Rod. I really do. But how can you even relate to a man like him? He isn't a ball player, he is a businessman. He is a Texas Rangers' creditor. He is Tiger Woods with half the charisma. This year, that seems like more an apt comparison than ever before. But again, I really want to root for him. It was neat that he and Jeter hugged after the milestone. But isn't it weird that even while the milestone was happening...even as I was watching the replay, I was wondering how the media was going to cover this. That's what A-Rod does to anything he touches. He makes it surreal. This isn't just home run number 600. It's another debate about steroids. This isn't another Yankee team moment, it's an A-Rod moment. This isn't an accomplishment that is amazed at or celebrated, it is ho-hummed by most of the baseball world. Why?

Put your fingers around a guy who is only 35 years old already having 600 homers. Before you go thinking that doesn't mean much, imagine getting two homers a game every day for most of two season. Think about hitting a home run a day for almost four years. Think of mulitplying Jose Bautista twenty times where he is now. That's a lot of homers. Alex Rodriguez now has 1100 extra base hits. That's more doubles, triples and homers than Robinson Cano has hits in his career. If he gets just 100 more extra base hits in his career, he'll finish sixth all time. Alex Rodriguez now has 4960 total bases. That's 19th on the all time list. A-Rod has averaged 354 Total Bases for every 162 games he's played. If he averages a paltry 200 a year for the next six years (he already has 176 this season and it's an off year), then there will be only three men ahead of him: Hank Aaron, Stan Musial and Willie Mays.

If Alex Rodriguez were to quit tomorrow, he'd already be a Hall of Fame caliber player. He's already built the stats in EVERY category to do that. His next stolen base will be his 300th. He's rewritten batting prerequisites for shortstops and third basemen. And unfortunately, there will be lots of debate about whether he belongs in the Hall or not because of his PED admission. And that's a shame.

You can't compare A-Rod with Mark McGwire. You can't compare A-Rod with Sammy Sosa. Not only did he play a more highly skilled position than either of them, but he was always a better player than them. He has 1100+ more Total Bases than McGwire and his career OPS+ is 21 points higher than Sosa's. And I believe both of those gentlemen should be in the Hall of Fame. But I can also see the resistance. I can't see that resistance for A-Rod as he was a complete package who could do it all and do it regularly.

All that I have written in the last three paragraphs is the truth. All of it contains accolades that A-Rod has exceeded in deeds and accomplishments. But there has never been a more polarizing player ever. Sure, Bonds was hated everywhere and loved feverishly in San Francisco, but A-Rod has never even been feverishly loved anywhere he's played. I marvel at his accomplishments. I respect his mad skills that are superior to all but one of his generation. I acknowledge that he is a complex and inscrutable person and human being. I attempt sincerely to like him. I applaud his milestone. I recognize that he is a superhero of sorts with his boy-wonder conqueror first name and messianic middle name.

At the end of the day, the sad reality at the bottom core of it all is that I only like him when he hits and hits often. And even if it's the best of times, that's only going to be a third of the time.