MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: August 14, 2013

Tuesday was not a good game picking day. There were six extra-inning games last night. Six! Four of them went the opposite way of the pick. So that did not help. Bartolo Colon has not been as automatic. Max Scherzer pitched well, but was hurt by an error and his team's lack of scoring. Austin Jackson, Torii Hunter and Miguel Cabrera went a combined one for sixteen with two walks. That does not happen. It was just one of those nights.

Let's see if Wednesday can become a better day of picking. There are six day games:

• The Twins over the Indians: The Indians turn to Carlos Carrasco. Ugh! There had to be a better choice out there than that! Give the pick then to Kyle Gibson because Gibson is a decent pitcher. The only hope for the Indians here is if Gibson is off and it gets to be a high scoring game.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: John Danks used to be a really good pitcher. Somewhere along the line, his stuff has not been the same and he gets hit hard fairly regularly. The Tigers have no problems with lefties. Rick Porcello needs to have a good game though.
• The Royals over the Marlins: A big reason the Royals started this surge of theirs was when Ervin Santana started throwing zeroes. And his stuff has been magnificent since. Jacob Turner has been throwing well for the Marlins. But the Royals have to be the pick here.
• The Reds over the Cubs: Chris Rusin has been fairly stingy for the Cubs when it comes to base runners and runs. But he has been more of a fly ball pitcher than in the past and that is worrisome, especially against the Reds. Bronson Arroyo never ceases to amaze me. Pitch quick, throw strikes and boom.
• The Rockies over the Padres: There seems to be little difference between these two teams as far as results go. You would think the Rockies would be more talented. I am going with Jorge De La Rosa at home against Andrew Cashner.
• The Diamondbacks over the Orioles: Chris Tillman has had a good season. He is not as good as his numbers, however. Patrick Corbin is having a great season. His numbers are as good as he is. Going with the D-backs at home.
• The Yankees over the Angels: The body language of the players on the Angels says it all. They are a down bunch of players. And everything seems to go wrong from umpire calls to bouncing balls. Jered Weaver is a great pitcher and has made the Yankees look bad before. But I am going with Ivan Nova and the Yankees to go on a roll here.
• The Nationals over the Giants: Tim Lincecum has been pitching much better and Jordan Zimmermann has lost his command in his last bunch of outings. So why, then, am I picking the Nationals? Because Zimmermann is my guy, that's why.
• The Braves over the Phillies: John Lannon can throw an occasional good game but the nod has to go to Brandon Beachy and the high flying Braves.
• The Bay Rays over the Mariners: Aaron Harang has a chance at least when he pitches at home in Seattle. But the Rays should win this one behind the blazing, but efficient tosses of David Price. The Rays have been slumping, but this should be their game.
• The Rangers over the Brewers: The Brewers may have something special in Tyler Thornburg as he has pitched very well for them. But he is a fly ball pitcher and that scares me in Texas where the ball flies far into the night. Besides, Matt Garza was a great pickup for the Rangers and should win.
• The Pirates over the Cardinals: Oh man, that error in the ninth inning last night was a killer for the Pirates. What an bad, bad moment for them. But I think they show some resilience tonight with Francisco Liriano throwing really well and Shelby Miller is not yet the consistently great pitcher he is going to be.
• The Athletics over the Astros: The Astros won last night and that threw me for a loop. And Jarred Cosart has been terrific for them. But he only has one decision (a win) in five starts for them. Jarrod Parker should win for the A's.
• The Dodgers over the Mets: Dillon Gee will give the Mets a good game. He always seems to. And Chris Capuano is hard to bank on. But the Dodgers have been surreal in how many games they win and the nod has to go to them at home.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Esmil Rogers has been a batting practice pitcher for his last bunch of starts. It has been ugly. Jon Lester has not had a great season. But I have to think he will be better than Rogers.

Yesterday: 6-9

Week: 24-17

Month: 105-69

Season: 1008-782

Games of the Day: 77-52    -1

MLB Game Picks - Friday: August 9, 2013

Bruce Chen. What is going on there? 5-0 with a 1.79 ERA? And he totally shuts down one of the best offenses in baseball? The world is upside down. Of course that game was the Game of the Day. And it was one of the two out of seven picks that were incorrect yesterday. The other was the Phillies destroying Jeff Samardzija and the Cubs. Samardzija drives me crazy. He is like the new Bud Norris: brilliant at times and awful at times.

And yeah, it looks like the Tigers totally spanked the Indians and told them maybe next year, kids. And you know Max Scherzer's 17 wins are stupid because wins are a stupid statistic. Whatever.

There are sixteen games on the schedule as the White Sox and Twins play two. Double your yuck, baby. Friday's picks:

• The Twins over the White Sox: I continue my Kyle Gibson fetish. But also, with John Danks pitching, the Twins are a much better hitting team against lefties. That seems illogical, but there it is. On the other hand, the Twins have hit .220 as a team in August so far. So there is that.
• The Indians over the Angels: One of two things is going to happen tonight. Either the Indians are going to take out all their Tigers frustration on Jered Weaver and the Angels, Or they will be so down and out after getting whupped by the Tigers that they will be helpless against Weaver. A 50/50 shot here. Scott Kazmir has been great.
• The Yankees over the Tigers: See above with 50/50. I have no business picking the Yankees here. But they are home. Ivan Nova has been great lately. Rick Porcello is the Tigers' most vulnerable starter. Let's see what happens.
• The Nationals over the Phillies. The Nationals now have no shot at all of doing anything this year. What a shocking season. Dan Haren was the most vulnerable pitcher in the NL for most of the season and lately has been throwing amazing. Go figure. John Lannon hardly seems capable of getting in the way.
• The Athletics over the Blue Jays: Esmil Rogers have been getting his butt handed to him for a month now. But Jarrod Parker does not always pitch that well on the road. The Rangers have caught the A's again and the A's have been sputtering. Tough call.
• The Reds over the Padres: You have to look for Bronson Arroyo to bounce back from his last start, which was awful. Andrew Cashner looked great against the Yankees. But then again, that is not hard to do these days.
• The Braves over the Marlins: Brandon Beachy's comeback has not been going well and Jacob Turner has been decent for the Marlins. But the Braves are on fire and their offense is clicking now. So I have to go with them at home.
• The Red Sox over the Royals: I am completely torn about this one. Ervin Santana have been terrific for two months now. He is in one of the best stretches of his career. At the same time, the Red Sox are starting Jake Peavy who the Royals know really well. But he also knows them really well. Gosh, I don't know.
• The White Sox over the Twins: Yuck. For the White Sox, Charles Leesman will make his Major League debut. Leesman has a great track record of winning games in his semi-long career (he is not a prospect) without the corresponding great peripherals to think it will transfer. Liam Hendriks and a whole lot of MLB sucktitude to his credit.
• The Rangers over the Astros: This one should be a no-brain pick. Matt Garza should shut down the Astros and the Rangers should hit Erik Bedard. I hate the word, "should."
• The Cardinals over the Cubs: The Cards had a really tough series against the Dodgers and need to rebound before the Pirates get out of sight. Lance Lynn should help make that happen. The Cubs go with Chris Rusin.
• The Pirates over the Rockies: Speaking of those Pirates, I think they will win again tonight. Francisco Liriano has been brilliant and my only concern is him pitching at Coors. But then again, so is Jorge De La Rosa.
• The Mariners over the Brewers: Joe Saunders is like Bruce Chen. How the heck does he ever get anyone out or win games? Saunders has won ten of them despite being his usual stinky self. Kyle Lohse is an old pro whose hot streak was cut down his last outing.
• The Bay Rays over the Dodgers: David Price should have a good game in this one. Puig is the only real challenge here. I love how Price is killing the strike zone. Chris Capuano will meet Wil Myers for the first time. I bet he will enjoy that.
• The Orioles over the Giants: Funny how two contenders in the AL East are both in the NL West this weekend. I am going with the Orioles because I never am comfortable picking a pitcher fresh off the DL like Ryan Vogelsong is tonight. Chris Tillman pitches for the Orioles who lose a bat from the DH.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Diamondbacks over the Mets: Patrick Corbin has been my guy all season long. Just like Miley was my guy last season and Kennedy the season before that. Now if only the D-backs could get follow up seasons by these guys, eh? Jeremy Hefner goes for the Mets.

Yesterday: 5-2

Week: 34-27

Month: 63-39

Season: 966-752

Games of the Day: 74-50    -3

MLB Game Picks - Monday: July 29, 2013

July has been such a good month. It is a shame that the month is not finishing well. Two straight negative days were the only blight on what was a great weekend around here. That being the case, the world is still a good place. Picking baseball games may be an obsession for me, but it is still just for fun.

My son is correct. The only time the Yankees win is when I pick against them. Heh. Derek Jeter, Alfonso Soriano and Ichiro Suzuki turned back the clock for a day to win the boys from the Bronx a game despite Phil Hughes. Elsewhere, the Diamondbacks wasted another brilliant performance by Patrick Corbin and lost. That was the Game of the Day, so it was a double-ouchie.

Today is a short schedule Monday. Here are the picks:

• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: David Price is 5-1 in his career at Fenway Park with a 1.96 ERA. Those numbers (SSS) are hard to pick against. Felix Doubront pitches well against weaker competition but struggles a bit against good teams.
• The Rangers over the Angels: Jered Weaver has been eye-poppingly good since returning from the disabled list. But he should be matched by Matt Garza, who has been just as brilliant. If the two starters cancel each other out and it becomes a bullpen game, the Rangers win.
• The Indians over the White Sox: John Danks has not fared well the last two seasons and perhaps needs a change of scenery. I have a feeling quite a few Pale Hose players need a change of scenery. Not thrilled to be picking Zach McAllister here, but the Indians are clearly the better team.
• The Pirates over the Cardinals: Jake Westbrook is not a great pitcher. But he does give his team a chance to win with most of his outings. But tonight, he will need to be perfect because Francisco Liriano has been on a roll. The guy, when on, is an amazing talent.
• The Braves over the Rockies: The Braves are flying high after sweeping the Cardinals over the weekend and today they get Brandon Beachy back. If he is anywhere close to being as good as when he was injured, the Braves just got better. Jorge De La Rosa is a good pitcher too though.
• The Marlins over the Mets: Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison have both been hot in the lineup and Jacob Turner has lost his last two starts, but pitched well. Jeremy Hefner had a hot streak going for about a month or more, but has since fallen on hard times again.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: Jeff Samardzija is very talented. I would love to see him be a bit more consistent. The pick depends on him having a good day. Kyle Lohse might still be with the Brewers to pitch his turn. If so, this pick could be in trouble as Lohse has won six straight.
• The Blue Jays over the Athletics: This game is a hunch. Esmil Rogers has not won a game since June 24. But he should benefit from pitching in that ghastly ballpark. A.J. Griffin is usually pretty strong at home. But I am feeling the Blue Jays here.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Reds over the Padres: The Reds had a tough series against the Dodgers. But the Dodgers are on fire. So that is not a surprise. They should have no trouble against the Padres. Sean O'Sullivan has a 1.88 WHIP. Enough said there. And all Mike Leake does is win games.

Yesterday: 7-8

Week: 7-8

Month: 204-143

Season: 878-692       I did some auditing and fixed this statistic

Games of the Day: 68-45  -1

Where Did Brandon Beachy Come From?

Brandon Beachy has truly been one of the surprise stories of the 2011 MLB season. He wasn't on anyone's top prospect list. He wasn't drafted. He beat out Mike Minor (who was on top prospect lists) for the job in Spring Training and has since thrown seven starts for the Braves. And he's been terrific! Who the heck is this guy and where did he come from?

If you look at Beachy's Wikipedia page, you'll learn that he played Indiana high school ball with his two brothers and helped take his team to that state's Class AA championship. But he wasn't offered a big time college scholarship and went to a small Indiana college where the biography goes on to say that he played the infield and pitched occasionally. It wasn't enough to get him on anyone's draft radar. Somehow, the Atlanta Braves found him and signed him to a free agent contract in 2008. Nice find, that.

And so this amateur free agent that nobody but the Braves noticed went to their minor league system and rose like a rocket. 2010 became a magical season. He started in the Southern League (Double A) and started a handful of games but pitched mostly in relief. He was fabulous. He got promoted to the International League (Triple A) and all he did there was pitch with a 2.17 ERA with a 9.45 K/1.2 BB ratio. Just two years after he was signed, he made his major league debut.

Beachy made three starts for the Braves after his call up. He lost his only two decisions. His walk rate wasn't what it was in the minors, but he gave up no homers and finished with a 3.00 ERA. Hardly anyone noticed. That was enough, though, for the Braves to invite him to Spring Training where he flat out beat Mike Minor for a job in the rotation. Again, this is a guy who wasn't on anyone's prospect radar. Skeptical was the only word for his expectations.

But here he is now after seven starts to begin the season. His WAR is tied with David Price, Tommy Hanson and Jaime Garcia. That's some pretty good company. His won-loss record continues to be unlucky and he's only 1-1, but his ERA is an impressive 2.98. And if you think that ERA is fluky, his FIP is exactly the same at 2.98 and his xFIP is only slightly higher at 3.19.

All of Beachy's numbers are good. He has struck out 9.6 batters per nine innings, which leads starters on his team. He's walked only 2.3 batters per nine for a very impressive 4.09 strikeout to walk ratio. His WHIP sits at 0.969 and he's been stingy with hits with only 6.4 hits per nine innings. Yes, his BABIP is very low at .245 so he may regress a little bit. But when you are striking out that many people, BABIP isn't as important as if more balls were being hit in play.

Fangraphs' Pitch/FX data shows his fastball to average about 91.8 MPH. That's not blow away fast, but Fangraphs does rate the pitch this year at well above average in effectiveness. His other very good pitch is the slider. He throws the slider 16.6 percent of the time and Fangraphs again rates that pitch as well above average. His change up, which he throws 9.6 percent of the time and his curve ball (9.9 percent) are both given negative scores by Fangraphs. One interesting statistic is that Beachy gets batters to chase 33.4 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. It will be interesting to see if teams start making him throw strikes as the season progresses.

The fifth starter of any rotation is a guy you hope will at least keep his team in the game for a chance to win. Most teams around the league struggle with this rotation spot. But the Braves have a guy who is rated currently among the top pitchers in the league. Brandon Beachy has been a startling story to this point and despite the Braves' somewhat sluggish start this season, gives the team hope that they can remain relevant throughout the season.