Swimming against the strikeout tide

Never in the history of Major League Baseball has the strikeout been as prevalent as it is in today's game. The rate has risen every year and 2014 stands to break another record as the average strikeout rate in baseball is 7.73 strikeouts per nine. Even so, there are a few throwbacks to a bygone era whose current strikeout rates would not have been league average unless they pitched way back in 1981.

There are currently six pitchers who have pitched at least 50 innings who have a strikeout per nine rate less than 5.0 per nine. They are: Paul Maholm (3.96), Nick Martinez (4.22), Kevin Correia and Chris Young (4.48), Bronson Arroyo (4.92) and Kyle Gibson (4.93). Two of those pitch for the Twins.

It gets worse for the Twins from there. There are eighteen pitchers who have logged twenty innings or more this season with less than five strikeouts per nine innings and five of them are Twins. And Matt Guerrier would be on the list too if he had two more innings pitched. Throw them strikes, boys, and let them hit the ball!

The K/9 rate might not actually be the best way to look at strikeouts and pitchers. There is also strikeout percentage, which is all about the percentage of strikeouts per plate appearance rather than by inning. It might be a truer picture.

There are 21 pitchers whose strikeout percentage is less than 15% and who have pitched at least 50 innings. There are 55 who have done the trick with 20 innings or more. Just to give you some perspective, 20.3% is the Major League average. So these guys really are swimming against the strikeout tide.

Only one pitcher is averaging less than 10% for a strikeout rate with 50 or more innings and that is/was Paul Maholm. If you go to twenty innings or more, there are four: Mike Pelfrey (8.4% [!]), LaTroy Hawkins--otherwise known as Methuselah--(9.8%), Scott Carroll and Maholm at 9.7%.

For those who are close to Maholm with more than 50 innings, there is Nick Martinez at 10.7% in 59+ innings whose home ballpark is in Texas--not a good combination. Kevin Correia comes in at 11.3% followed by Chris Young at 12.2% and then by Eric Stults at 12.5%. These guys are fighting the tide and only Chris Young is somewhat succeeding with his offerings.

Last year, there were only five qualified starters who finished with less than 15% for a strikeout rate. The bottom two were Jeremy Guthrie and Kevin Correia. So far this year there are twelve. I don't know if that means there are more exceptions to the rule this year than last or that injuries have forced teams to go with more pitchers who do not fit today's pitching mold.

What I do know is that ten years ago (2005) there were 42 qualifying pitchers that finished with a strikeout percentage of less than 15%. While to this point, twelve is more than the two from last year, we can easily see that this is a dying breed.

MLB Game Picks - Monday: September 9, 2013

How bad is the Game of the Day feature this year when a team breaks an eight-game losing streak just to foil it? Pretty bad. And, of course, that outcome and the final outcome of last night's game of the Reds versus the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw put a damper on what was otherwise a good picking day.

There are eleven games on the schedule and some of them have great impact on the wildcard chase. Monday's picks:

• The Indians over the Royals: This is not a stunning endorsement for Ubaldo Jimenez. The only reason I pick him is that the best way to get to Jimenez is patience and the Royals are not a patient club. They are fifth in the AL in batting average, but only tenth in on-base percentage. Ervin Santana has not been rock solid lately either. Big game for both.
• The Orioles over the Yankees: First, Chris Tillman is as close to an ace as the Orioles have. Second, the Orioles are home. Third, CC Sabathia just cannot seem to avoid giving up five or so runs nearly every game he pitches.
• The Braves over the Marlins: It took Kris Medlen a long, long time to reach the .500 mark. But he has won six of his last eight starts and his last two in a row. As long as the Braves score a few off of Henderson Alvarez, they should win.
• The Reds over the Cubs: These are the games you have to look out for. The Reds have had two big series in a row and had a great time winning most of those games (including a sweep of the Dodgers). So you would expect them to beat the Cubs. Again, a pick fraught with danger. Bronson Arroyo and Travis Wood are the starters.
• The Angels over the Twins: Jered Weaver should have little trouble with the Twins' lineup. That said, the Angels need to score some runs off of Pedro Hernandez.
• The Nationals over the Mets: Carlos Torres has been fantastic in his two starts for the Mets. He has walked only one batter in 13.2 innings. But the Mets would need to score and I don't think they will against Gio Gonzalez today. If Gonzalez is off, this pick could blow up in a hurry.
• The Rangers over the Pirates: Good golly, don't I hate picking Yu Darvish to win. Every time I do it blows up in my face. And the Pirates are a great team. The outcome will depend on how well Gerrit Cole pitches and if the Rangers can get a lead before the Pirates' bullpen comes in and takes over.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: The Tigers have their hands full with Chris Sale. But that poor bloke can't seem to buy a win with that team behind him. Max Scherzer as an opponent does not help. This will be close and perhaps Miguel Cabrera makes the difference.
• The Mariners over the Astros: Two of my favorite young pitchers go in this one with Taijuan Walker and Jarred Cosart. Neither have struck out as many batters as I thought they would. That should change in this game though. This is a toss up and I am going with the home team.
• The Rockies over the Giants: Jhoulys Chacin has had a good season. And the last time he faced the Giants was at home and he allowed only one hit. He got hit a bit hard by the Dodgers his last time out though. Tim Lincecum was very good in his next to last start and very bad in his last start. So he is hard to predict.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Did you know that Ricky Nolasco's real first name is Carlos? Anyway, old Carlos sure is having a good time in Dodgers' blue. He has a 1.65 in his four starts in Dodgers Stadium. That seems like a good pick to me even if faced by Randall Delgado.

Yesterday: 10-5

Week: 10-5

Month: 60-52

Season: 1202-947

Games of the Day: 89-66   -2

MLB Game Picks - Monday: August 19, 2013

Did Ryan Dempster throw at Alex Rodriguez on purpose? Of course he did. If he got suspended because of the act (which he won't because the tensions did not escalate), I am sure he would be glad that he had the appeals process in place. I can certainly understand not liking what A-Rod has done to the game. But the big complaint from players is that he is playing under the appeals process. Excuse me, union members, but that was a hard won victory for the union in the agreement process with MLB. If Marvin Miller is not turning in his grave, I would be surprised.

The point is that the Red Sox and my pick would have been okay if Dempster had not made it personal. Elsewhere, bullpens and lack of runs cost Matt Harvey and Yu Darvish wins after pitching brilliantly...again...and cost me picks...again. The only ray of sunshine of a cloudy day of picks was picking the end of the Dodgers' winning streak.

Monday's picks:

• The Mets over the Twins: Kyle Gibson, like most Twins' pitchers does not strike batters out. That makes him have to be really fine with his pitching. His last four games were not really fine. Dillon Gee, on the other hand, is pitching great but cannot get help from his mates. Tough pick.
• The Rockies over the Phillies: Talk about tough picks. Jeff Manship against Ethan Martin? How do I pick that? I am going with the Rockies because they have a better offense. But it is a total crap shoot on this one.
• The Orioles over the Rays: I do not understand people making fun of Chris Tillman's won-loss record. I understand that such is not the best way to evaluate a pitcher. But Tillman has given up more than three runs just twice in his last ten starts. Anyway, it is tough to pick against David Price, but I like the Orioles at home.
• The Reds over the Diamondbacks: This game is pretty significant in terms of playoff implications. The Reds, of course, would like to win the division, but they hold a small lead over the D-backs in wildcard terms. I like the Reds at home and the way they are playing lately. Bronson Arroyo versus Randall Delgado.
• The Marlins over the Dodgers; Jose Fernandez has had an amazing season. But if you really want to be amazed, check out his home numbers. He is untouchable at home. Hyun-jin Ryu has been great too and will pitch well. But Fernandez will be dominant.
• The Rangers over the Astros:  Matt Garza has done exactly what the Rangers wanted him to do when they traded for him. He should be fine today. Lucas Harrell has hung in there and taken his lumps every five days. Poor guy.
• The Nationals over the Cubs: The sad truth is that the Nats currently are not that much better than the Cubs. I still can't get over their season. But Jordan Zimmermann is still my guy and even though I like Jeff Samardzija too, I have to go with Jordan.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: The Cardinals are confusing and Shelby Miller is confusing. How good are they? I don't really know at this point. Milwaukee has never seemed that great a place for them to go either. But the Brewers are going nowhere and Marco Estrada is blah.
• The Angels over the Indians: We can pretty much count the Indians out now, right? Right. And though I like Danny Salazar, I like Jered Weaver at home even better.
• The Pirates over the Padres: This pick does not make me feel comfortable. Francisco Liriano has been unbelievable and the Padres' offense is not there. But Andrew Cashner has the kind of stuff to shut down the Pirates too. Going with the better team, but I am nervous.
• The Red Sox over the Giants: After watching the Red Sox a lot, there are some holes on this team. Middle relief is one. Starting pitching is another. But they should win tonight even though they flew all day to get to San Francisco. Jon Lester goes against Tim Lincecum.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Athletics over the Mariners: The Mariners have not been an easy team to play lately. They certainly took it to the Rangers over the weekend. The A's are the weirdest good team ever though and they will win. Aaron Harang will be okay. Jarrod Parker will be okay. The A's win.

Yesterday: 7-8

Week: 7-8

Month: 143-102

Season: 1046-815

Games of the Day: 79-55  -1

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: August 14, 2013

Tuesday was not a good game picking day. There were six extra-inning games last night. Six! Four of them went the opposite way of the pick. So that did not help. Bartolo Colon has not been as automatic. Max Scherzer pitched well, but was hurt by an error and his team's lack of scoring. Austin Jackson, Torii Hunter and Miguel Cabrera went a combined one for sixteen with two walks. That does not happen. It was just one of those nights.

Let's see if Wednesday can become a better day of picking. There are six day games:

• The Twins over the Indians: The Indians turn to Carlos Carrasco. Ugh! There had to be a better choice out there than that! Give the pick then to Kyle Gibson because Gibson is a decent pitcher. The only hope for the Indians here is if Gibson is off and it gets to be a high scoring game.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: John Danks used to be a really good pitcher. Somewhere along the line, his stuff has not been the same and he gets hit hard fairly regularly. The Tigers have no problems with lefties. Rick Porcello needs to have a good game though.
• The Royals over the Marlins: A big reason the Royals started this surge of theirs was when Ervin Santana started throwing zeroes. And his stuff has been magnificent since. Jacob Turner has been throwing well for the Marlins. But the Royals have to be the pick here.
• The Reds over the Cubs: Chris Rusin has been fairly stingy for the Cubs when it comes to base runners and runs. But he has been more of a fly ball pitcher than in the past and that is worrisome, especially against the Reds. Bronson Arroyo never ceases to amaze me. Pitch quick, throw strikes and boom.
• The Rockies over the Padres: There seems to be little difference between these two teams as far as results go. You would think the Rockies would be more talented. I am going with Jorge De La Rosa at home against Andrew Cashner.
• The Diamondbacks over the Orioles: Chris Tillman has had a good season. He is not as good as his numbers, however. Patrick Corbin is having a great season. His numbers are as good as he is. Going with the D-backs at home.
• The Yankees over the Angels: The body language of the players on the Angels says it all. They are a down bunch of players. And everything seems to go wrong from umpire calls to bouncing balls. Jered Weaver is a great pitcher and has made the Yankees look bad before. But I am going with Ivan Nova and the Yankees to go on a roll here.
• The Nationals over the Giants: Tim Lincecum has been pitching much better and Jordan Zimmermann has lost his command in his last bunch of outings. So why, then, am I picking the Nationals? Because Zimmermann is my guy, that's why.
• The Braves over the Phillies: John Lannon can throw an occasional good game but the nod has to go to Brandon Beachy and the high flying Braves.
• The Bay Rays over the Mariners: Aaron Harang has a chance at least when he pitches at home in Seattle. But the Rays should win this one behind the blazing, but efficient tosses of David Price. The Rays have been slumping, but this should be their game.
• The Rangers over the Brewers: The Brewers may have something special in Tyler Thornburg as he has pitched very well for them. But he is a fly ball pitcher and that scares me in Texas where the ball flies far into the night. Besides, Matt Garza was a great pickup for the Rangers and should win.
• The Pirates over the Cardinals: Oh man, that error in the ninth inning last night was a killer for the Pirates. What an bad, bad moment for them. But I think they show some resilience tonight with Francisco Liriano throwing really well and Shelby Miller is not yet the consistently great pitcher he is going to be.
• The Athletics over the Astros: The Astros won last night and that threw me for a loop. And Jarred Cosart has been terrific for them. But he only has one decision (a win) in five starts for them. Jarrod Parker should win for the A's.
• The Dodgers over the Mets: Dillon Gee will give the Mets a good game. He always seems to. And Chris Capuano is hard to bank on. But the Dodgers have been surreal in how many games they win and the nod has to go to them at home.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: Esmil Rogers has been a batting practice pitcher for his last bunch of starts. It has been ugly. Jon Lester has not had a great season. But I have to think he will be better than Rogers.

Yesterday: 6-9

Week: 24-17

Month: 105-69

Season: 1008-782

Games of the Day: 77-52    -1

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: July 7, 2013

The day started 0-2 on the picks yesterday as the Yankees beat the Orioles and the Blue Jays got pounded by the Twins. But then the rest of the day went 10-3 to finish off the week with a good day. The only three incorrect after the first two were the Red Sox (extra innings, of course), Rangers and Pirates. The Rangers losing to the Astros was again a surprise.

I head back from Portland back north to home this morning, so let's get straight to Sunday's picks:

• The Orioles over the Yankees: The Yankees have won six in a row after losing five in a row and they have had that kind of season. They never seem to do well against Jason Hammel and the Orioles hit Hiroki Kuroda the last time the two met.
• The Tigers over the Indians: The first two games of this series were not even close and today does not bode well either as Corey Kluber has not pitched well lately. Doug Fister should get enough run support to win even if he gives up four or five runs.
• The Blue Jays over the Twins: Now you may say, "William, what are you thinking? The Jays are pitching journeyman pitcher, Todd Redmond." And that would be true. But Redmond had an excellent season going in the minors with excellent control and good strikeout numbers. His first few relief appearances have been successful. Besides, the Blue Jays should hit Scott Diamond.
• The Phillies over the Braves: I have picked against Jonathan Pettibone a lot this year and at least half the time I end up wrong. So let's go with him at home to pitch a little better than Kris Medlen and a Braves' lineup that is hit or miss.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: I still like Robbie Erlin, who pitches for the Marlins today. He lost his last time out, but I just like the way he pitches. Which is bad news for Stephen Strasburg, who never gets run support. But I have to go with the big guy.
• The Bay Rays over the White Sox: David Price sure was fine upon his return his last time out. But that was against the Astros. Oh wait. The White Sox are not any better than the Astros. John Danks has had two good outings in a row with not much to show for it.
• The Mets over the Brewers: Has any pitcher shown more improvement since the start of the season than Jeremy Hefner? I do not think so. He has been terrific. Meanwhile, the Brewers are starting Tom Gorzelanny. Alrighty then.
• The Athletics over the Royals: A.J. Griffin will always seem to be a better option to me than Luis Mendoza. But every once in a while, Mendoza will have a great BABIP game and drive you crazy. Oh well. That is the pick.
• The Cardinals over the Marlins: Jose Fernandez was amazing his last time out and I have written about him in recent days. So it is hard to pick against him. But I believe he has already pitched well once before against the Cardinals and the Cardinals will figure it out, especially at home. Lance Lynn goes for the Cards and needs to avoid his one bad inning a game thing.
• The Pirates over the Cubs: A.J. Burnett returns from the disabled list so we are back to having both A.J.s pitch on the same day again. Cool. Burnett should not have any trouble and the Cubs are pitching Carlos Villanueva.
• The Rangers over the Astros: This pick is made very tentatively as the Astros have won their fair share of games against the Rangers and Angels this season. Erik Bedard goes for the Astros and Justin Grimm, whose season has been far from fairy-tale, goes for the Rangers.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: This pick feels far from a lock as well. Just because Clayton Kershaw is pitching does not mean the Dodgers will win. The only thing making the pick feel better is that Chad Gaudin is pitching for the Giants. :::former Yankee willies:::
• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: Raise your hand if you thought this Roy Oswalt comeback would go well? Nobody? Yeah, me either. Patrick Corbin gets back on track and Oswalt takes his fourth straight loss.
• The Angels over the Red Sox: This is an interesting game. Josh Hamilton is back slugging. Trout is still on fire. Jered Weaver is still one of the best. But those Red Sox are good and John Lackey has been one of the reasons. Going with the Angels at home.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Reds over the Mariners: Joe Saunders in a small ballpark like in Cincinnati does not seem very savory. Then again, Bronson Arroyo can give up his share of dingers as well. The Reds are home and are the better team. Let's leave it there.

Yesterday: 10-5

Last week: 57-39

Month: 50-32

Season: 727-578

Games of the Day: 58-37

MLB Game Picks - Monday: July 1, 2013

Happy Canada Day to my friends north of the border. And Happy Birthday to my first wife, a lovely lady and mother to my children. June went by in a blur. But I guess that is what all older people say.

I am excited about a new month though because May and June were so ordinary and blah when it came to picking games. Both months just scraped by a bit over .500 and the season's tally is still riding a hot April with no help from the last two months. Yesterday ended the month in typical fashion at 8-7. I am so tired of being just barely adequate at picking these things.

So what has the new month to offer? A fresh slate. More of a crystallizing of what teams are good and which are not. The best weather of Northern Maine. And, with any kind of luck, better picking. Let's get it started with Monday, July 1:

• The Blue Jays over the Tigers: R.A. Dickey has pitched three good outings in a row. The Blue Jays are at home and despite a tough series against the Red Sox are playing much better ball. The Tigers go with Jose Alvarez, a fill in starter, which gives the Jays an even better chance at winning.
• The Nationals over the Brewers: The Nationals came out of their hitting slump yesterday and isn't Bryce Harper coming back today? On top of all that, my man, Jordan Zimmermann is pitching. Yovani Gallardo is nothing to sneeze at for the Brewers however.
• The Mets over the Diamondbacks: The Mets seem a lot more versatile without Duda and Davis and are playing a bit more of an exciting game. Not that they are great or anything. Shaun Marcum got his first win and the pick is for him to win again. Wade Miley has not been able to come close to his form of last season.
• The Marlins over the Padres: I just wrote about Jose Fernandez over the weekend, so it would be stupid of me to pick against him. I like him especially at home where he has not lost and has great peripherals. Jason Marquis has been great all year but got whacked last time out.
• The Reds over the Giants: I just noticed that I have not picked an away team yet. That is kind of scary. Bronson Arroyo is no stopper and has to be really on to win. But even if he is not on, the Reds should be able to score a lot off of Mike Kickham, who has not impressed in his short career so far.
• The Yankees over the Twins: I have picked against the Yankees for six straight days and that has worked out nicely, although it makes me sad. But I like Andy Pettitte against the Twins and he has a history of handling Mauer pretty well. Scott Diamond is yet another lefty and the Yankees hate lefties. But Diamond is not a high-quality lefty, so that gives them a chance at least.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Bay Rays over the Astros: I will take Matt Moore at home just about against anyone. Against Houston, yeah. Besides, even without Evan Longoria, I do not think Dallas Keuchel will be much of an obstacle for the Rays.

Yesterday: 8-7

Week: 8-7

June: 211-197

Season: 676-546

Games of the Day: 52-37

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: June 25, 2013

Closers. Everyone hates the statistic. Most believe that anyone can close. But they are the bane of my existence. It is fairly easy to predict which starting pitcher is going to be effective, or more effective than the other. But then the game gets into the eighth and ninth inning and all hell breaks loose. I should have been a game picker in the days of complete games. That would have been gravy.

There were only four games last night, and as such, a 2-2 record compared to a 3-1 record does not mean a whole lot. But 3-1 would have felt better. But Cliff Lee beating the Padres was also the Game of the Day. And he beat them just as predicted...for eight innings. And then he did not. His manager tried to get a complete game out of him. That did not work, so he panicked and brought in Jonathan Papelbon in the middle of the ninth instead of the beginning. That did not work either, thanks in part to a lazy play by his catcher. And the game blew up. And the pick blew up. Never go to bed on a three-run lead.

Tuesday's picks:

• The Nationals over the Diamondbacks: It is hard to believe that Gio Gonzalez has only won three games. His peripherals are impressive. The strikeouts are there. The WHIP is good. But three wins out of fifteen starts? This should turn around. Trevor Cahill, on the other hand, has earned most of his losses.
• The Orioles over the Indians: Who would have thought that Chris Tillman would become the Orioles' most consistent winner as a starting pitcher? But he is 8-2. Justin Masterson is good too, but if Masterson has any flaw, it is the home run ball. The Orioles hit them prodigiously.
• The Rangers over the Yankees: Yu Darvish has only pitched against the Yankees once in his career. But boy was it a doozy. His stuff is crazy. Hiroki Kuroda will need to be nearly perfect to win this one.  He won't be.
• The Tigers over the Angels: This Angels' team took a big hit with that blown save the other day. Yeah, closers. Speaking of closers, the Tigers do not have one. But they should still win this one behind Rick Porcello and a bunch of runs off of C.J. Wilson.
• The Red Sox over the Rockies: This will either be a close game not settled until late, or Ryan Dempster will finally have a good game and the Red Sox blow out Juan Nicasio. Either way, this feels like a Red Sox win.
• The Marlins over the Twins: The Marlins have not been the roll over and die team of late. They have won their fair share of games the last two weeks. If Jose Fernandez can pitch well tonight, something he is certainly capable of doing, then the Fish could score some runs against Chick Keven Correia.
• The Rays over the Blue Jays: Matt Moore was messed up for three games. Then the Yankees' putrid lineup fixed him back up. The Blue Jays will pay for it. And the Rays will score against Mark Buehrle.
• The Braves over the Royals: Two of the most unpredictable teams right here. You never know from day to day what they will do. I like Kris Medlen better than I like Ervin Santana. Though Santana has had some good outings lately.
• The White Sox over the Mets: Great match-up of Chris Sale against Zack Wheeler. I will take experience here over Wheeler in just his second big league start. David Wright is on fire though.
• The Cardinals over the Astros: The Cards did not have a "happy flight" that its local media likes to promote. They just got swept by one Texas team and will try to take it out on the other. Jake Westbrook over Lucas Harrell, who seems to pitch every other night.
• The Reds over the Athletics: I tried this pick either way and did not like the looks of either. So I will go with my first impression. Bronson Arroyo is having a good season. Tommy Milone has a good outing and a bad one. If he has a good one, this pick is dead.
• The Padres over the Phillies: Jason Marquis is pitching like he has a beef against the world. He is a "battler" as they like to say. He is also 9-2. I will take those stats over Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies.
• The Pirates over the Mariners: Jeff Locke has given up four earned runs over his last seven starts. Yeah, give me some of that. Joe Saunders is always capable of giving up four runs in every start. Yeah, he will have his occasional gem at home.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: If the Giants' starter in this one, Mike Kickham, pitches like he did in his debut, they will Kickham back to the minors quickly. Stephen Fife does not seem that great a pick either. But at least he has a better chance to do well.

And the Game of the Day

• The Brewers over the Cubs: Kyle Lohse is going to go on a roll. It started with his last start and it will continue. You heard it here first, okay? Meanwhile, Edwin Jackson will be rolling in the Cubs' dough for three years. It will not be pretty.

Yesterday: 2-2

Week: 9-10

Month: 164-159

Season: 629-508

Games of the Day: 47-36

MLB Game Picks - Friday: June 14, 2013

The picking day on Thursday finished a game over .500 and it still feels like a major victory. Granted, it was mediocre and barely acceptable, but it was the first day in the black this week. That is a victory. Of course, two games went a combined 32 innings to be wrong. Those extra inning games never help. Ever. And it seems there have been more of them than ever before. As usual, Yu Darvish was very good and could not win. The same was the case for Matt Harvey, but at least I predicted that one.

And here is a little tidbit for you. In one of those extra inning games, Travis Hafner, Kevin Youkilis and Vernon Wells were back to back to back in the lineup. They went zero for 23. That's right. Zero for 23. Just keep running them out there, Girardi. Yup.

Here are Friday's picks:

• The Orioles over the Red Sox: Like I told you yesterday, the Orioles like playing the Red Sox. It is just one of those things. Both teams will be exhausted after their long game yesterday. But the Orioles will hit Ryan Dempster more than the Red Sox will hit Chris Tillman.
• The Pirates over the Dodgers: I keep forgetting that the Pirates are a good team now. For all the years I have been doing this, the Pirates were the easy mark. They still have some problems occasionally on offense, but they are a good team. And Jeff Locke will be Barney Stephen Fife.
• The Indians over the Nationals: The Nats have run out of pitchers named, "Ross." They win with pitchers named, "Ross." They have not won often with pitchers named Gio Gonzalez. Besides, Justin Masterson is the Indians' best pitcher.
• The Mets over the Cubs: The two pitchers in this contest are a combined 2-15. Yes, those are the kinds of messes I have to deal with. I have a new theory about Edwin Jackson. He was born in Germany and in that country, most citizens get five weeks of vacation a year. Jackson takes his during the baseball season. Shaun Marcum is going to get his first win of the season.
• The Reds over the Brewers: Kyle Lohse has always pitched pretty well against the Reds. He has one of his better K/BB splits against the Reds over the years. But the feeling here is that the Brewers will find some way to screw it up and lose. Bronson Arroyo is hit or miss and when he is hit, he is hit.
• The Cardinals over the Marlins: Jake Westbrook has not pitched in a while and it is almost a bad thing he has come off the disabled list because the young pitchers have pitched better than him. And the Cardinals have Stanton back and young, Jose Fernandez, has been pitching well. Despite all that, I am going with the Cardinals.
• The Braves over the Giants: This is a tough, tough game to predict. Kris Medlen has not had a good start to the season but has not given up an earned run over his last two starts and wants to stay out of the bullpen. But the Giants are pitching Madison Bumgarner, which means with the free swingers on the Braves, he could strike out twelve of them.
• The Rangers over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have been on a bit of a roll. The Rangers have been in a funk. Justin Grimm has not been very good lately. Mark Buehrle is a powder-puff guy who keeps teams off balance...most of the time. When he does not, it ain't pretty. The Rangers at home are still tough to deal with.
• The White Sox over the Astros: Chris Sale was supposed to pitch the other night, but the game was rained out. The extra rest should do him good. Erik Bedard could surprise with a good game tonight. But that would indeed be a surprise.
• The Tigers over the Twins: This game is no gimme for the Tigers and the Twins have played them tough. Scott Diamond should not be able to hold Miguel Cabrera and company down. Rick Porcello has been decent for the Tigers.
• The Rockies over the Phillies: The Rockies are losing players to injuries, which is a shame. But I have a feeling they will still rock Kyle Kendrick's world today at home in Coors Field.
• The Angels over the Yankees: The Angels have at least three hitters that can do something. The Yankees cannot say that. And as long as the Yankees play Vernon Wells, I cannot pick them anymore. Despite Andy Pettitte pitching, I am going with C.J. Wilson.
• The Athletics over the Mariners: I cannot see the Mariners' offense doing anything in this game. The A's are a really good team. Tommy Milone over Joe Saunders.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: I can tell I am being set up here. I have picked against the Padres and picked against them and they keep on winning. Today, I think they will win behind Eric Stults. But that is a setup and I recognize it. So I am going to foil it and pick the Diamondbacks and the terrible Trevor Cahill. So there. Nice try. Gosh, I am going insane.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Bay Rays over the Royals: The Rays have been pretty sucky for a couple of weeks now. And the once unhitable Matt Moore has been getting bombed. The thinking here is that Moore rediscovers himself in this game and the struggling Rays' lineup gets a few runs off of Luis Mendoza.

Yesterday: 5-4

Week: 25-39

Month: 83-89

Season: 546-439

Games of the Day: 43-29

MLB Game Picks - Monday: June 3, 2013

Yesterday was not a good picking day. It would have been better if not for bullpens. The Reds had a 4-2 lead on the Pirates until Jonathan Broxton happened. The Tigers had a lead on the Orioles until Phil Coke happened. Without those two events, the day would have been decent. But that is a four game swing on the final tally. One of those baby Cardinal pitchers finally lost a game. Matt Harvey of the Mets was uncharacteristically shelled. And unbelievably, the Angels were beaten by the Astros again!

There are nine games on the schedule today with three of them being on the West Coast. Here are Monday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Indians: Lots of questions on this one. How good will Andy Pettitte be coming back from the disabled list? Will it be the good Justin Masterson or the bad one? Can the reeling New York Yankees get their act together? Will Terry Francona and Joe Girardi spend more than fifteen minutes praising each other?
• The Reds over the Rockies: Yes, Tyler Chatwood is 3-0 and has been lights out. No, I am not quite buying it. Yes, Bronson Arroyo can give up runs in bunches and no, he will not today.
• The Pirates over the Braves: The Pirates are a legitimately good team. Their record is not a fluke. I am not quite convinced by their offense, but the pitching has been there. A.J. Burnett could strike out ten Braves today as they are prone to do that. Then again, Burnett could give up half a dozen gopher balls too. Kris Medlen is 1-6. I never expected that to happen.
• The Brewers over the Athletics: Tough game to call. The A's always seem to find a way to win. Tommy Milone is the key to the game. He really has not pitched well since his May 7 start and that was five starts ago. The Brewers feature Ryan Braun, who loves him some lefty pitching. Marco Estrada is probably under-appreciated.
• The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: Trevor Cahill has been much better the last few weeks. But Lance Lynn is a stud and the Cards' offense is terrific. I like the Cardinals here, especially at home.
• The Angels over the Astros: I have been picking it this way all weekend and have gone down in flames all weekend. I might as well finish the series being stubborn. If the Angels lose again, their manager should get sacked. Plain and simple. Joe Blanton and Erik Bedard are the starters.
• The White Sox over the Mariners: The White Sox have not won in a while, so they are due. John Danks has looked pretty good since coming back. Joe Saunders is always capable of baffling Major League batters for a game. This one can go either way.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: I might as well continue my season long streak of being zero for picking Eric Stults. I pick him to win and he loses. I pick him to lose and he wins. I think he will win today, so I picked him to lose. Desperation leads men to do strange things. Chris Capuano needs to have a good game. Eek.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Phillies over the Marlins: The Marlins just mashed the Mets for most of the weekend and are getting some offense all of the sudden. But Kyle Kendrick just somehow wins all the time. He just does. It is best not to think about it too much because your head will explode. Tom Koehler goes for the Fish.

Yesterday: 7-8

Week: 7-8

Month: 18-13

Season: 480-363

Games of the Day: 38-23

MLB Game Picks - Friday: May 24, 2013

When there are only five games on the schedule, there is not much to work with and just a couple of wayward picks can sink the day. That was the case yesterday. Young, Kevin Gausman, was not terrible for the Orioles yesterday. But that team's bullpen is just awful lately and gave up eight more runs in three innings of work. Ouch. Speaking of bullpens, Ryan Dempster was not good again yesterday and gave up four runs in three innings of work. But then Clayton Mortensen and Alex Wilson gave up eight more to put that game way out of reach. And of course, waiting for Edwin Jackson to pitch a good game continues to be an exercise in futility. But hey, I did nail Joe Blanton winning his first game of the season.

Friday, weather permitting, should be back to a full schedule. The picks:

• The Nationals over the Phillies: My guy, Jordan Zimmermann is on the mound tonight. The only question is whether the Nationals will put enough runs together off of Kyle Kendrick to get Zimmermann the win.
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: Yes, a rookie will be making his Major League debut for the Blue Jays. But Sean Nolin has really good numbers in the minors and the Blue Jays are killing the ball right now and should score often against Chris Tillman. This is a really tough pick. But taking the Blue Jays at home.
• The Tigers over the Twins: This game might be closer than you think. Yes, the Twins are starting Samuel Deduno, but he is a big strong guy with a good arm. Anibal Sanchez should give the Tigers a quality start and Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder will do the rest.
• The Braves over the Mets: Kris Medlen might find himself back in the bullpen when Brandon Beachy returns unless he can put some good outings together. Even so, he should be better than Jeremy Hefner, who goes for the Mets.
• The Reds over the Cubs: I love that Scott Feldman is pitching so well for the Cubs. He has been fantastic. But this is the Reds he is facing. Bronson Arroyo goes for the hometown team.
• The Indians over the Red Sox: The Red Sox' cracks are showing the past few weeks after a really good start. John Lackey has not been able to deliver quality starters and the only big question is if this will be a good Justin Masterson start or a bad one because it is either one or the other in equal measures.
• The Yankees over the Bay Rays: St. Pete is usually a horror show for the Yankees and they are 5-16 there since the start of 2011. This might be the only game of this series that gives them a shot as Ramon Hernandez goes for the Rays. David Phelps goes for the Yankees. The Rays' bullpen has been a bit of a disaster thus far.
• The Angels over the Royals: The Royals are not this bad. They really are not. But they are certainly in a horrible stretch. And they are catching an Angels' team that has gotten hot. Jason Vargas never fills me with giddiness. But neither does Luis Mendoza. Mike Trout is on fire.
• The White Sox over the Marlins: The Marlins get an extra batter in the lineup with the DH. Insert jokes here. I do not like picking a pitcher coming off the disabled list like John Danks is right now. But against the Marlins? Yeah. Tom Koehler goes for the Fish.
• The Athletics over the Astros: The A's have been somewhat lackluster and their offense is uneven and inconsistent. And still, they should beat the Astros. Tommy Milone has not been terrific. But he has talent. Erik Bedard had talent, but that was years ago.
• The Pirates over the Brewers: Yeah, this is one where the "lines" might have a different outcome. But I do not care. This is my feature and I go with what I know come hell or high water. If A.J. Burnett is on, the Brewers will be shut down. It is as simple as that. Marco Estrada is a decent pitcher and is at home. But again, if Burnett is on, Estrada will not keep up. But then again, Burnett has to be on. Heh.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: It was great to see Brandon McCarthy get his first win his last time out, his first since he was hit in the head so badly last season. But the D-Backs faithful are still itching for their team to ditch McCarthy, so we will see. Eric Stults goes for the Padres and I never get his games correctly.
• The Cardinals over the Dodgers: The Mattingly death watch continues. What he said was dead on, by the way. Lance Lynn over Chris Capuano. This one should not be close unless the Cards get jet lagged.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: This is my upset special of the day. Joe Saunders will have a good BABIP night and give Rangers' hitters soft oh-fers. Justin Grimm will be dinged around for three or four runs and the Mariners will steal one.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Giants over the Rockies: Tyler Chatwood has a 2.66 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP. Those two are not logical and will not continue. Tim Lincecum seems to be at least competitive in most of his starts. The Giants will win this one at home.

Yesterday: 2-3

Week: 33-29

Month: 172-130

Season: 401-294

Games of the Day: 35-17