The Astros first round pick castoff club

The projections for 2013 for the Houston Astros are all pretty grim. And that is understandable considering the team lost 107 games in 2012, have to switch leagues in 2013 and have a projected 2013 payroll of $14.6 million. Baseball Prospectus expects the team to lose 97 games in 2013. And any kind of optimism for the Astros to surprise anyone in the coming year would be supremely "pie-in-the-sky." But the second-year Astros' GM, Jeff Luhnow has done something fairly interesting in compiling a team with a starting lineup that will feature no less than five former first round picks and the rotation will feature one starter who was once the third overall pick in the country. What if two or three or four of those former first round picks were to suddenly recall that kind of promise?

Yeah, it probably won't happen. Most of them were given up on by their original drafting teams, which means something because you don't easily give up on a first round pick simply because of the money involved and the emphasis placed on their development. Even so, it is always fun to dream. Maybe a couple of the castoffs can find the star brilliance that garnered them that kind of pick placement in the first place. Let's take a look at who they are.

Carlos Pena

Well, yeah, Pena doesn't really fit the profile here. The guy has already logged twelve years in the big leagues and his first round pick (Texas) was way back in 1998. Pena is pretty much a known commodity. As a DH and occasional first baseman, he is going to strike out thirty percent of the time, walk thirteen to fifteen percent of the time and hit in the low .200s (if that). But he can still hit 20 to 25 homers and give the Astros an on-base percentage over .320 no matter how badly he hits. And that is worth something at least for a team like the Astros. Pena is going to be 35 in May, but who knows, he could have one more decent season in him.

Brett Wallace

Wallace was the thirteenth pick overall (Cardinals) in the 2008 draft and is already with his fourth organization. He mashed at every level in the minors (.307/.381/.491). But he hasn't hit his stride with the Astros in parts of three seasons and has only compiled an OPS of .699 (.304 wOBA) in 792 plate appearances. Unlike Pena, Wallace can hold his own against left-handed pitching though he does not walk as often against them. The problem with Wallace is that even if he can still put it together as a batter, his glove is fairly catatonic. It would almost seem that Pena would be a better option at first base to let Wallace DH, but Pena is a short-term option whereas the Astros hope Wallace becomes a big Major League hitter long-term. Projection systems see him progressing in the power department with a little fewer strikeouts and a few more walks. And they grant that his fielding will improve marginally.

Jason Castro

Castro is not a castoff as he was drafted by the Astros as the tenth overall pick in the 2008 draft. In parts of two seasons with the Astros, the catcher has not shown the promise as of yet that he can become a top flight catcher in the majors. But part of that problem can also be attributed to some pretty severe injury problems involving his knee and his foot in that time frame. He is having a monster spring this year if that can be taken with any kind of optimism. His minor league career showed very good patience at the plate and much better defense than he has shown in the majors thus far. Projections for 2013 are soft and perhaps justifiably so. But Castro is going to get the opportunity to be the starting catcher this season and if he is healthy, could be one of the nicer surprises of 2013. I am going to keep an eye on him optimistically.

Matt Dominguez

Dominguez was cast off by the now Miami Marlins  for Carlos Lee. The Marlins may live to regret that trade. Just add it to that team's pile of trash legacy for the last year. Dominguez can become a star that befitted his tenth overall selection in the 2007 draft. The third baseman is still only 23 years old and is hampered somewhat by a lack of patience at the plate. But that is combined with a low swing and miss rate and a fairly good strikeout rate considering. If he can be more selective and not swing at 33% of the pitches out of the strike zone, he could be quite good. The projections aren't buying it, of course. But he, at least, is one of the few players that ZiPS at least predicts will be league average for the Astros in 2013. I think he can be much better if his fielding improves (league average right now) and he gets in the lineup for 150 games. Thus far, he has hit too many ground balls in his brief Major League career and that probably stems from his lack of selectivity at the plate. His home run to fly ball rate was 20% in a small sample size. So, if he hits the ball in the air a bit more, he can hit 20 homers or way above projections.

Tyler Greene

Perhaps no player has ever engendered more arguments by Cardinal fans over the years than Tyler Greene. The Cardinals drafted him in the first round of the 2005 draft and then never really gave him a chance to be their shortstop. When he did get calls to the big club, they moved him all around the field--so much so that he has played seven different positions in his 266 games played. Greene had good hitting numbers in the minors, especially for a shortstop. But, whether because he is over-matched in the majors or because of a lack of a true shot at playing regularly, his hitting has never gelled in the majors. His .292 career on-base percentage is fairly pathetic. His fielding metrics are equally troubling. But then again, how much of that was from being bounced around and knowing he wasn't going to really get a shot with the Cardinals? He is going to get that shot with the Astros, especially now with Lowrie gone to the A's. At the age of 29 now, this will be a make or break year for Greene.

Philip Humber

Philip Humber was the third overall pick (Mets) in the 2004 draft. After a long and winding road, he became a surprisingly decent pitcher for the White Sox in 2011. Then he started the 2012 season well and in his second start of the 2012 season, threw a perfect game. You go, Philip Humber! Well, not exactly. The wheels came off after the perfect game and his season went to hell in a hand-basket. The final numbers were ugly: A 6.44 ERA with a 5.77 FIP, a 1.539 WHIP and a 2.0 homer per nine rate. Woof, that is some stinky pitching. His ground ball rate tumbled and everything else fell apart. But Humber is pitching well this spring for the Astros so maybe he can bounce back to his 2011 form, which is certainly going to improve on the Jordan Lyles of the world.

Six former first round draft picks. Six possibilities to live up to that long lost hype. Of the six, Matt Dominguez and Jason Castro can be special. Tyler Greene could be a middle of the pack shortstop. Stranger things have happened. If it does, it still won't make the Astros a great team. But they could be a heck of a lot more entertaining than last season.

Glut of First Base/DH Free Agents

It's probably not a good year to be a free agent this year if you are a first baseman or DH. The pond is full of those types of ducks. The list? Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena, Johnny Damon, Lance Berkman, Manny Ramirez, Lyle Overbay, Aubrey Huff, Jorge Cantu, Russell Branyon, Hideki Matsui, Marcus Thames, Troy Glaus, Adam LaRoche, Derrek Lee, Ty Wigginton and Adam Dunn. Obviously, Damon and Ramirez are more known as outfielders, but Damon could probably survive in left field for a couple of dozen games. Manny could not.

That's seventeen players who need to find a job among thirty teams. It seems pretty reasonable that Huff will re-sign with the Giants, so the Fan will leave him out of this conversation. Cantu, Glaus and Thames will be considered role players. The Fan is tempted to put LaRoche in that category, but won't for now. So that brings us down to thirteen to consider as starter types in this position. As the Fan mentioned yesterday, all of the value of these players has to be generated by their bats. Few analysts give first baseman any brownie (or WAR) points for playing first and certainly there are none for playing DH.

Saying all of that, let's take a look at each of the remaining thirteen and rate and rank them and perhaps even make a suggestion or two about which teams they may end up with:

1. Johnny Damon: Surprised? Yeah. Understood. But at 37, Damon still provides flexibility. He can play left, first or DH. Damon can still steal a base for you (22 of 24 the last two years) and hit an occasional dinger. He would be worth a one year deal at $12 to $14. Angels? Tigers?

2. Lance Berkman: Berkman really doesn't want to DH. But he's been a first baseman for a long time and won't hurt you too badly there. Teams shouldn't give up on batting him right handed. The Fan still thinks he has a good year in him. One year deal at $12 to $14 with options.

3. Lyle Overbay: This ranking is surprising the writer as much as you probably. But Overbay is perhaps the best fielder of the bunch at first, has some pop and will give you 70 or more walks a year. Useless against lefty pitchers though. Tampa Bay?

4. Paul Konerko: Last year feels more like an outlier than anything else. It would seem improbable for Konerko to match it. But his problem is that he will want to command the dollars such a year would bring. But at 35, he still may have a couple of valuable seasons left in him. He really isn't much of a first baseman any more but he can play there if that's what you need. He would be an asset for Tampa Bay, but it's doubtful they will spend that kind of money he will want.

5. Derrek Lee: Lee is the same age as Konerko but didn't have the kind of year Konerko did. He looks much older. It wouldn't seem wise to move Lee to the AL, but after watching that World Series, perhaps we have to stop thinking of the AL as the dominant league, eh?

6. Adam Dunn: Dunn is one of the youngest of the bunch, but he plays old. He's slower than a mule and he wasn't disastrous at first base, but he isn't great either. It's also troubling that his walks, long one of his staples, were way down this past year. But he still hit his 38 homers, no? He is another bat that could help the Bay Rays. He would be a perfect fit for them.

7. Carlos Pena: Pena has had two awful seasons in a row. But it really seems like if he had a chance to work with a really good batting coach, he could come back in a big way. His power is still there. He's still a tremendous fielding first baseman. And, best of all, he could be a major bargain for somebody. The Fan doesn't think Tampa Bay should re-sign him as he is in too much of a rut there.

8. Jim Thome: The Twins certainly got their money's worth with Thome last year. He can still hit the ball a mile and can still get his fair share of walks. But golly, the guy has to slow down some time. Shown a willingness to play for peanuts.

9. Adam LaRoche: He may be rated too far down this list. Had a serviceable year last year with 25 homers with 100 ribbies. But this Fan just can't get past the strikeouts. 172 last year is just intolerable. And his power may have been inflated by playing in Arizona for half his games.

10. Ty Wiggintin: Wigginton, by all accounts, is a good egg and a great teammate. His willingness to keep trying hard despite his team's struggles early last year say a lot about the type of player he is. But he's simply a marginal talent who, if put in the right place, could have an Aubrey Huff type season.

11. Vladmir Guerrero: Vlad had a great half of a season last year, but really looked ancient in the second half and in the post season. He can only DH which limits his options. He just might have another league average season in him before he heads to the Hall of Fame. It's too bad that the carpet in Montreal ruined so many legs of so many great players.

12. Hideki Matsui: Matsui had a marginal season for the Angels. This Fan feels he is done as a productive major league hitter. He is a proud man who has done great things in his career. Can you see him being a marginal player somewhere for peanuts? This Fan can't.

12. Russell Branyon: Good golly, can he play for another team? He probably will. His power will always get him a cheap look with someone.

13. Manny Ramirez: Wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole. Sorry. He can ride off into the Barry Bonds sunset.

The first six on this list may get close to what they want for money. But the rest will be scrambling for jobs and it wouldn't be a surprise if a third of this list wasn't signed by the opening of Spring Training. Life goes on.

The Rob Deer Awards

Rob Deer played for eleven seasons between 1984 and 1996. His claim to fame was the strikeout record with 186 in 1987. A record that would be shattered three times by Mark Reynolds of the Arizona Diamondbacks. But this post isn't about strikeouts. Deer had another claim to fame. In the last forty years, nobody has hit 25 or more homers with a lower batting average. The Fan stopped at forty years because the old eyes were bugging out going year by year through baseball-reference.com. In 1991, Rob Deer hit 25 homers and batted .179. He struck out 175 times that year or seven times the amount of homers he hit. He was joined in that dubious club by Mark McGwire in 2001, McGwire's last season. McGwire hit 29 homers that season and batted .187. The difference was that McGwire only had 364 plate appearances that year.

With the exception of those two seasons, no players in the last 40 seasons have batted lower than .200 and still hit 25 homers. But this year, two players may join that exclusive club. Mark Reynolds and Carlos Pena are in serious contention for that honor. Pena is now batting .198 in 561 plate appearances and he's hit 27 homers. Mark Reynolds has hit 32 homers and is batting .199 in 587 plate appearances. Both players have been high strikeout/high walk, all or nothing type of players for most of their careers. But this year is more all or nothing than ever. Just to show you how hard it is to do what they are doing, here is a list of the players who have hit 25 or more homers with the worst batting averages in the last forty years:

1. Rob Deer (1991) - .179 with 25 homers
2. Mark McGwire (2001) - .187 with 29 homers. Again, McGwire did not play the whole season and retired.
3. Carlos Pena (2010) - .198 with 27 homers.
4. Mark Reynolds (2010) - .199 with 32 homers
5. Dave Kingman (1984) - .204 with 37 homers. Kingman finished that season with a .432 slugging percentage. He only hit 9 doubles and had one triple to go along with his 37 round trips. Plus he had many years where he hit in the .220s with over 25 homers.
6. George Thomas (1985) - .210 with 32 homers
7. Rob Deer (1989) - .210 with 26 homers
8. Gene Tenace (1974) -.211 with 26 homers
9. Adam Dunn (2003) - .215 with 27 homers
10. Jose Valentin (2004) - .216 with 30 homers
11. Tony Armas (1983) - .218 with 36 homers. One of the most futile offensive players on this list. His On Base Percentage that year was .254.

That's the list. And so, baseball friends, we are witnessing history. Two players in 2010 are going to finish number three and four in a category that goes back 40 years in their unique ability to mash the long ball and hit little else that lands safely on the playing field. Steve Balboni almost made this list. In one of his years in Kansas City, he hit 24 homers and batted .205.

Carlos Pena - Continued Force for Rays?

By most standards of today's new statistics, Carlos Pena had a productive and valuable year last year. He had an OPS+ of 130 and hit 39 homers and drove in 100. PECOTA projects him this year to have a line of: .252/.366/.532. If he does that and hits the 35 homers PECOTA projects, then he will be a valuable player again. But those projections look a bit hopeful to this writer.

For one thing, Pena batted .227 in 2009 after batting .247 the year before. His batting average has dropped nearly 60 points since his big year in 2007. His OBP has dropped two years in a row too and he finished out at .356 last year. After batting .247 and .227 in the last two years, is it realistic to think he's going to hit .252 this year? If Spring Training is any indication (and it usually isn't), he won't hit .252. He's been awful this spring with a batting average below .100. He is a year older at 32 and it just doesn't appear as if he will get better as PECOTA predicts.

There are a couple of factors that could alter that feeling. First, Pena is in the last year of his contract and will have even more motivation to produce. At 32, Pena will want to score one more good deal before all is said and done. The problem for him will be that most teams are set for first basemen/DH types. He might be a good fit for the Dodgers who have Loney at first and he is not that productive. Seattle is another possibility. It will be super unlikely if the Rays sign him to continue his career there...not at over $10 million a year.

The other positive on his side is that his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was pretty low for the year (.250) last year and really low in the second half (.221). Plus, his power has been consistent no matter how many base hits he has. Nearly half of his paltry 107 hits last year were for extra bases. So there is every reason to believe his power numbers will continue. Plus, Pena walks a lot. He walked 87 times last year. But then again, that number dipped for the second year in a row too.

According to most fielding stats the Fan looked at, Pena isn't that impressive in the field. His RTOT are in the minus numbers and PECOTA has him a a negative 1. That isn't terrible, but it isn't great either. The Fan watched a number of Rays' games last year and Pena seemed pretty nimble and effective over there, but the numbers don't back up the observation.

The Fan's gut says that Pena will drop off some more this coming year. Meanwhile, Zobrist is the next great player in the league and can play anywhere and this kid, Sean Rodriguez, has been outstanding at second base for the Rays all spring. It seems the best scenario for the Rays would be to play Pena against right-handers and when a lefty starts for the other team, put Zobrist at first and Rodriguez (who bats right-handed) at second. Those latter two could take over after the trade deadline if the Rays can find a suitor for Pena to get a little value out of him before free agency.

Pat Burrell looks done too with a terrible spring. The Rays should cut their losses and release him.