The New York Yankees emerged from the four division series as the only team that had an easy time moving on. Of course, for Yankee fans, that was a lot of fun. For Twins' fans, not so much. But the other three series have been utterly fascinating while going the distance. We had a blowout Game Five in Atlanta as the Cardinals surprisingly moved on. And we had heartbreak in Los Angeles for Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. Tonight we find out who will emerge from the remaining division series as those scrappy Rays take the Astros to the limit.
The five-game series format of the division series does post angst of whether it is the best format for this stage of the Major League Baseball season. It seems to make it easier that the best team can be beaten in the frenzy. The Dodgers were easily the best team in the National League and they are going home. If the Rays pull off the impossible and beat the Astros tonight, then the best team in the American League will go home. That is a big "If" of course. But if it does, that means that both of the bests and most favored in their respective leagues will end their seasons against wildcard teams.
The wildcard gives those teams the sense of being the underdog with absolutely no pressure. The underdog is not expected to win. So they can play with abandon while the Number One seeds have all the pressure to go the distance because of the expectations. Since the five-game format does lead to such excitement, and because nobody wants to play baseball in the snow, I would leave that format as is, but I would make one tweak.
There has to be a bigger benefit for a top seed against a wildcard team. There has to be a premium for having the best record and winning a division. A wildcard team does not have home field advantage with the 2-2-1 format. But I think the format still gives a wildcard team a route to get a playoff series win. If the wildcard wins its two games at home, then you are guaranteed a Game Five (unless the wildcard team took one of the first two on the road). And anything can happen in a Game Five as we have seen.
I propose that the wildcard team only gets one home game out of the five. Again, there needs to be a reason to win a division and have the best record. Would a team such as the Yankees have fought harder down the stretch for the best record in the AL if they knew it meant four home games in the division series? I think so. As for the wildcard team, there has to be a real disadvantage for not winning a division. I think a 2-1-2 format does that.
This will never happen, of course, as there would be an outcry from the Nationals or the Rays about lost revenue. But my answer to them would be, "Then win the division!" If you think about it, the wildcard teams have just as much of a shot as the Twins and Cardinals received. I don't think that's right. There has to be a real benefit for winning the division and a real cost for not winning a division.
The National League Championship Series will feature the unlikely match-up of the Nationals against the Cardinals with the Cardinals getting a 4-3 home field advantage. I am not sure I would mess with that as a seven-game series seems to benefit the best team. But if a wildcard was involved, you could make it a 5-2 split something like 2-2-3. But, again, the seven-game format does make it harder for the emotional edge a five-game series gives a team as an underdog.
The American League is yet to be determined. And even though my Yankees are involved, I would want them to play the Astros. You want the two best teams slugging it out. There is a reason a heavyweight fight draws more than a welterweight. Plus, having half the games (or three of them) in that abomination of a stadium in St. Pete is not good for baseball. Plus, the Yankees have played the Rays 19 times already. Enough already! Facing the Rays in the ALCS is like playing Whack-A-Mole after winning the division over them in the first place.
It has been a fascinating playoffs already. And the buzz is good for baseball. You cannot ask for much better than having three of the four series go the distance. On the other hand, you want the best teams slugging it out in the Championship Series and the current format only gives division winners a slight advantage of making that happen. With apologies to wildcard teams and not denigrating the accomplishment of making it as a wildcard team, there should be a bigger penalty for not winning the division. We need to make it harder for Davy to beat Goliath.
Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Rays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Rays. Show all posts
Thursday, October 10, 2019
Wednesday, July 17, 2019
Yankees and Rays: Baseball Highs And Lows In Two Games
The New York Yankees came into this home series against the Tampa Bay Rays with an opportunity to increase their distance from the team's closest rival. On Monday night, after an exhilarating homer by Edwin Encarnacion put the Yankees ahead by two in the bottom of the eighth with the usually reliable, Aroldis Chapman, on the mound for the ninth to close it out. He never did, of course, and, for the team and the fans alike, the Rays gave the Yankees the most deflating loss of the season. In the course of one half inning, two games switched in the standings. As low as that loss was and as angry the reaction, the following night turned the tables as the Yankees scored six in the eighth to bury the Rays and provided one of the best and most fun win of the season. Two nights led to anguish and euphoria!
And that is the beauty of baseball. This is why I chafe when all these talking heads on sports radio call baseball boring and needing a heavy dose of fixing. Bah humbug! I have even heard the talk of paring the season down to a hundred games! Sacrilege! The most I would ever accept would be 154 because there is a historical value to that number. That is how many games Babe Ruth played in a season.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with baseball as it stands right now. The game is as beautiful for me at 63 as it was when I was 13. Oh, I know, I stand on the wrong side of demographics. It is a young person's world and I am the anachronism. Bah humbug again. My generation has buying power. My generation watches the games religiously. My generation grew up with the marvelous wave of each baseball season and love it as passionate as can be.
Once again, it is the media that is driving the narrative which drives social media which catches young people's attention like moths to flame. I will not beat this too far in the ground, but it is the me-first NBA and the head-cracking NFL and their crooked college counterparts who get all the media love and nothing else stands a chance.
These beacons of media say that baseball needs personalities. I do not totally disagree with the assessment. But if Mike Trout is considered boring because all he lives for is to play baseball, that passion itself for the game and his team is enough. And lets define personality for a second. What exactly are they talking about?
Apparently, on some level, personality means a sort of primal pounding of the chest when a player does something particularly above average. A big dunk or a long run or touchdown catch deserves such chest pounding. Am I all wet when my favorite memories were of Barry Sanders simply handing the ref the ball after another spectacular jig to the end zone? That was class. Sanders was quietly saying, I did this before and I'll do it again.
I remember the Knicks in the late sixties and early seventies when passing the ball was the prettiest thing I've ever seen and long shots getting buried with just a move back into assuming defense after the made shot. We went crazy over those teams as kids just like I'm sure Laker and Celtic fans cheered on Magic and Bird as their artistry on the court had no peers. There was no chest thumping and we ate it up.
So what then is personality? Is it becoming an "influencer" in social media? If that means having a good time with fans, well, great. Yeah. I seem to remember baseball players doing that first. Remember LoMo? I am all for such fun accounts online. But if it leads to politics, leave me out. Just like the stars of Hollywood, being really good at sports does not make one an expert on politics. I simply don't care what they think. I have my own mind, thank you.
Is personality when players get caught up in romances and gossip fodder with other famous people? Do I really care which Kardashian is shacking up with which famous basketball player? What does that have to do with the sport they play?
All the definitions of personality that I see so far are negatives. It is about the starved for attention, the adulation of a gullible public and the mockery of what is really news. The argument goes nowhere unless the idea is to get a bunch of gullible youngsters to want to emulate these news makers. And is that really what you want to have emulated? Should all kids want $200 sneakers because LeBron wears them?
No, it is the sport that counts. Mike Trout's problem is not that he is boring. Watch the dude play, for heaven sakes! The problem is that more than half of his games start after ten o'clock Eastern Time. And while we are on the Mike Trout subject, let's interject a minute about the All Star Game. I remember growing up and the really big stars like Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle played the entire All Star Game. Those were the guys everyone really wanted to see. Mike Trout is the biggest star in MLB. And he played four innings and got two at bats. Really!? Way to give the radio sports hounds some ammo.
I enjoy watching the NFL. I do. But I hate the primal peacock strutting. Seriously, your team is losing by three touchdowns and you are going to stomp around and pound your chest because you got a sack? Give me Barry Sanders' class any day. And the last I checked, an NFL game lasted just as long as most MLB games and the last time I studied this subject, there was even less time actually playing the game in the NFL than there is in a baseball game. I cannot watch the NBA. I was taught the game and loved it. But then players were allowed to travel at will, play zones with impunity, palm the basketball bringing it up the court and the inevitable primal exhibition when a successful dunk takes place. It is unwatchable for me.
I cannot watch college sports because of all the shenanigans that go on recruiting players and all the money that is made by the schools when the players receive nothing. I cannot support that.
All that aside, baseball is not perfect. Bad things happen. Players cheat. Players misbehave. Players get arrested just like any other sport. But baseball is as much a key part of my life as The Beatles were and are. It has been with me through loss and gain and more loss. Life lessons like: If things go badly, there is always tomorrow and this may have been a bad year, but there is always next year. It is a fabric of my being.
And this--for the millionth time--becomes crystal clear with the games Monday and Tuesday between the Yankees and the Rays. On Monday, Rays and Rays fans are soaring with a thrilling win by unlikely hero, Travis d'Arnaud. Yankee fans are crushed. The next night, Rays fans are crushed and Yankee fans are celebrating Aaron Judge and Didi Gregorius. That is baseball. That is the greatest sport on earth. That is the beauty of six games a week for six months and then a month of drama. Leave baseball alone. It is perfect the way it is.
And that is the beauty of baseball. This is why I chafe when all these talking heads on sports radio call baseball boring and needing a heavy dose of fixing. Bah humbug! I have even heard the talk of paring the season down to a hundred games! Sacrilege! The most I would ever accept would be 154 because there is a historical value to that number. That is how many games Babe Ruth played in a season.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with baseball as it stands right now. The game is as beautiful for me at 63 as it was when I was 13. Oh, I know, I stand on the wrong side of demographics. It is a young person's world and I am the anachronism. Bah humbug again. My generation has buying power. My generation watches the games religiously. My generation grew up with the marvelous wave of each baseball season and love it as passionate as can be.
Once again, it is the media that is driving the narrative which drives social media which catches young people's attention like moths to flame. I will not beat this too far in the ground, but it is the me-first NBA and the head-cracking NFL and their crooked college counterparts who get all the media love and nothing else stands a chance.
These beacons of media say that baseball needs personalities. I do not totally disagree with the assessment. But if Mike Trout is considered boring because all he lives for is to play baseball, that passion itself for the game and his team is enough. And lets define personality for a second. What exactly are they talking about?
Apparently, on some level, personality means a sort of primal pounding of the chest when a player does something particularly above average. A big dunk or a long run or touchdown catch deserves such chest pounding. Am I all wet when my favorite memories were of Barry Sanders simply handing the ref the ball after another spectacular jig to the end zone? That was class. Sanders was quietly saying, I did this before and I'll do it again.
I remember the Knicks in the late sixties and early seventies when passing the ball was the prettiest thing I've ever seen and long shots getting buried with just a move back into assuming defense after the made shot. We went crazy over those teams as kids just like I'm sure Laker and Celtic fans cheered on Magic and Bird as their artistry on the court had no peers. There was no chest thumping and we ate it up.
So what then is personality? Is it becoming an "influencer" in social media? If that means having a good time with fans, well, great. Yeah. I seem to remember baseball players doing that first. Remember LoMo? I am all for such fun accounts online. But if it leads to politics, leave me out. Just like the stars of Hollywood, being really good at sports does not make one an expert on politics. I simply don't care what they think. I have my own mind, thank you.
Is personality when players get caught up in romances and gossip fodder with other famous people? Do I really care which Kardashian is shacking up with which famous basketball player? What does that have to do with the sport they play?
All the definitions of personality that I see so far are negatives. It is about the starved for attention, the adulation of a gullible public and the mockery of what is really news. The argument goes nowhere unless the idea is to get a bunch of gullible youngsters to want to emulate these news makers. And is that really what you want to have emulated? Should all kids want $200 sneakers because LeBron wears them?
No, it is the sport that counts. Mike Trout's problem is not that he is boring. Watch the dude play, for heaven sakes! The problem is that more than half of his games start after ten o'clock Eastern Time. And while we are on the Mike Trout subject, let's interject a minute about the All Star Game. I remember growing up and the really big stars like Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle played the entire All Star Game. Those were the guys everyone really wanted to see. Mike Trout is the biggest star in MLB. And he played four innings and got two at bats. Really!? Way to give the radio sports hounds some ammo.
I enjoy watching the NFL. I do. But I hate the primal peacock strutting. Seriously, your team is losing by three touchdowns and you are going to stomp around and pound your chest because you got a sack? Give me Barry Sanders' class any day. And the last I checked, an NFL game lasted just as long as most MLB games and the last time I studied this subject, there was even less time actually playing the game in the NFL than there is in a baseball game. I cannot watch the NBA. I was taught the game and loved it. But then players were allowed to travel at will, play zones with impunity, palm the basketball bringing it up the court and the inevitable primal exhibition when a successful dunk takes place. It is unwatchable for me.
I cannot watch college sports because of all the shenanigans that go on recruiting players and all the money that is made by the schools when the players receive nothing. I cannot support that.
All that aside, baseball is not perfect. Bad things happen. Players cheat. Players misbehave. Players get arrested just like any other sport. But baseball is as much a key part of my life as The Beatles were and are. It has been with me through loss and gain and more loss. Life lessons like: If things go badly, there is always tomorrow and this may have been a bad year, but there is always next year. It is a fabric of my being.
And this--for the millionth time--becomes crystal clear with the games Monday and Tuesday between the Yankees and the Rays. On Monday, Rays and Rays fans are soaring with a thrilling win by unlikely hero, Travis d'Arnaud. Yankee fans are crushed. The next night, Rays fans are crushed and Yankee fans are celebrating Aaron Judge and Didi Gregorius. That is baseball. That is the greatest sport on earth. That is the beauty of six games a week for six months and then a month of drama. Leave baseball alone. It is perfect the way it is.
Monday, July 08, 2019
Yankees Miss Jugular
The New York Yankees won the first two games in their series against the Tampa Bay Rays and built their largest lead of the year in the division. They lost a tough game on Saturday on a walk-off homer. Hey, that happens. The team still had a chance of leaving that house of horrors called, Tropicana Field, of taking three of four games. Instead, Aaron Boone said it was a good time to rest his two most reliable and versatile hitters (and All Stars), DJ LaMahieu and Gleyber Torres. The Yankees scored one run against Charlie Morton and settled for a split. Instead of stepping on the Rays' jugular, the Yankees stuck to their every game is not important way of life.
I should be ecstatic with the lead the Yankees have in the division considering all the injuries the team suffered over the first half of the season (and continue to have). I should feel good about where the team is heading into the break. The team's place in the standings beats my expectations and hopes to this point. I should be grateful, right?
I would be more grateful if the Yankees' manager and staff (and those analytic squad-mates) had more of a killer instinct. I keep going back to my lack of understanding of the value of rest when a game is lost in the process. In theory, the rested player will perform at a higher level and be worth a few more percentage points in Wins Above Replacement from being rested. What I do not get is how hypothetical "wins" are more important than actual wins.
The counter argument would be: Can you guarantee that the Yankees would have won against Morton if DJLM and Gleyber played the game? Of course not. That said, I still think the odds of winning would have been far greater. The value of DJLM and Gleyber Torres is that they are versatile hitters. Those are the types of hitters needed against an ace like Charlie Morton. Without BOTH in the lineup, the Yankees are basically full of three-outcome batters (walk, strikeout, homer). A pitcher like Morton can fully exploit a lineup like that just as Morton did with one run and a gazillion strikeouts.
Aaron Boone said that he felt that both needed a break as the team leaned on them heavily during the first half. How heavy is heavily? Both DJLM and Gleyber Torres have played in 81 of the Yankees' 88 games. They each now have seven days off to this point in the season. That does not sound overworked to me. Gleyber Torres is 23-years-old. Brett Gardner has played 83 games thus far. He is the older veteran. Cody Bellenger is also 23 and has played in 88 of the Dodgers' 91 games. Max Muncy is closer to LeMahieu's age and has played 89.
One could also make a point that Torres and LeMahieu will not get a normal break like the others because of the All Star Game and have to travel to Cleveland. Oh boohoo! Mike Trout played Sunday as did Bellinger. Both are the best players in their respective leagues and have to travel further away from and to home for the All Star Game than any of the Yankees' players.
I do not advocate the Billy Martin way of playing his players and his pitchers until they dropped. Boone is observant enough to see the signs that a player needs a day. But this feels all too programmed and, at the same time, illogical. All I know is that the Yankees allowed the Rays to get two games closer and keep their hopes alive and, more importantly, allowed the Red Sox to creep two games closer instead of being buried in a deeper hole come the All Star Break. AND, it hurt them in the "best record in the AL" department.
The Yankees are in a tough division that is far from decided. Injuries still present problems and question marks. Pitching is still a bit of problem. The Yankees need to present the best possible lineup on the field. That means having versatile hitters interspersed with the boppers who sometimes deliver and sometimes do not. I should be happy. And I am. But I would be happier if this team had more of a killer instinct.
I should be ecstatic with the lead the Yankees have in the division considering all the injuries the team suffered over the first half of the season (and continue to have). I should feel good about where the team is heading into the break. The team's place in the standings beats my expectations and hopes to this point. I should be grateful, right?
I would be more grateful if the Yankees' manager and staff (and those analytic squad-mates) had more of a killer instinct. I keep going back to my lack of understanding of the value of rest when a game is lost in the process. In theory, the rested player will perform at a higher level and be worth a few more percentage points in Wins Above Replacement from being rested. What I do not get is how hypothetical "wins" are more important than actual wins.
The counter argument would be: Can you guarantee that the Yankees would have won against Morton if DJLM and Gleyber played the game? Of course not. That said, I still think the odds of winning would have been far greater. The value of DJLM and Gleyber Torres is that they are versatile hitters. Those are the types of hitters needed against an ace like Charlie Morton. Without BOTH in the lineup, the Yankees are basically full of three-outcome batters (walk, strikeout, homer). A pitcher like Morton can fully exploit a lineup like that just as Morton did with one run and a gazillion strikeouts.
Aaron Boone said that he felt that both needed a break as the team leaned on them heavily during the first half. How heavy is heavily? Both DJLM and Gleyber Torres have played in 81 of the Yankees' 88 games. They each now have seven days off to this point in the season. That does not sound overworked to me. Gleyber Torres is 23-years-old. Brett Gardner has played 83 games thus far. He is the older veteran. Cody Bellenger is also 23 and has played in 88 of the Dodgers' 91 games. Max Muncy is closer to LeMahieu's age and has played 89.
One could also make a point that Torres and LeMahieu will not get a normal break like the others because of the All Star Game and have to travel to Cleveland. Oh boohoo! Mike Trout played Sunday as did Bellinger. Both are the best players in their respective leagues and have to travel further away from and to home for the All Star Game than any of the Yankees' players.
I do not advocate the Billy Martin way of playing his players and his pitchers until they dropped. Boone is observant enough to see the signs that a player needs a day. But this feels all too programmed and, at the same time, illogical. All I know is that the Yankees allowed the Rays to get two games closer and keep their hopes alive and, more importantly, allowed the Red Sox to creep two games closer instead of being buried in a deeper hole come the All Star Break. AND, it hurt them in the "best record in the AL" department.
The Yankees are in a tough division that is far from decided. Injuries still present problems and question marks. Pitching is still a bit of problem. The Yankees need to present the best possible lineup on the field. That means having versatile hitters interspersed with the boppers who sometimes deliver and sometimes do not. I should be happy. And I am. But I would be happier if this team had more of a killer instinct.
Monday, June 24, 2019
The Anonymous Chad Green
The New York Yankees revolve in a whirlpool of interest with every game, action, roster move, etc., covered from multiple angles. Under such scrutiny, no player is truly anonymous, but, Chad Green has been nearly so. Ever since Domingo German went down with an injury and the Yankees had no other starters available, Chad Green has been the "Opener" for the Yankees and has sort of become lost in the shuffle of attention. While I watch constant walks the last four innings of relief outings on winning nights, I wish that were not so.
If you have followed this blog along its bumpy course, you know that I hate everything that happens to do with this Opener thing. It is one part of my old-fashionness that I cannot seem to get out of my system. I can live with defensive shifts because batters can break it and do not. But there is something about Openers that rub me in all the wrong places.
The fact that the Tampa Bay Rays started it probably has something to do with it. The Rays are the "smart" team. The Rays are the "hip" team. The Rays are the "scrappy" team. Blech. Give me a root canal instead. I was dreading the Yankees copying the "smart" team and going with an Opener. When German went down with his hip problem, the Yankees could not wait to jump into the Opener pool. It is embarrassing to me.
While saying all that, I do have to admit that the decision to pursue such a personally embarrassing course has worked. And it has worked spectacularly. The Yankees have employed the tacky tactic six times and have won each of those games. The last three games Chad Green has pitched have been as the Opener. He has six "starts" or "opens" altogether.
The unfortunate thing for Green in these outings is that he gets little recognition. He cannot get a win. He cannot get a Hold or a Save. He cannot get any juice on the leverage index. All he can get is a pat on the back. Of his six starts, the second pitcher has gotten the victory four times. David Hale won the earliest one. Chance Adams won the second. The bullpen blew the lead but got the win later in the game in the third. Nestor Cortez Jr. has won two and the later bullpen got the sixth. All those wins and Chad Green got an inning or two in the box score.
It is too bad that so few people have noticed because Green has been awesome in his outings beginning the last week of May. Most know that he was truly horrible to start the season. His first ten outings led to an OPS against of 1.228. His ERA was 16.43 and his WHIP was 2.478. Brutal. He was sent to the minors, regained a bit of his mojo and came back to the Yankees.
Green was better in May after his call back to the Big Leagues. He still struggled a bit early in that callback. He finished the month with a 4.70 ERA and 1.304 WHIP. But he walked only one and struck out ten in 7.2 innings pitched. He was approaching more Chad Green historical numbers.
Starting with his last two appearances in May and now all of June, Chad Green has been spectacular covering eight appearances. He has not given up a homer, walked only one batter and struck out 20 batters in 11.1 innings pitched. He has given up one run in that span. His ERA for June is 0.96 and his WHIP is 1.071. If you toss out his one less than stellar relief outing in Toronto on June 6, he has been nearly perfect.
But here's the thing. Chad Green's last three appearances have been Opens. The Yankees have won them all, of course, but Green has not pitched in any games in between those Opens. So basically, this again stellar Chad Green is pitching two innings every fifth day. While he is thus employed, every time a Yankee starter goes five innings (which is nearly every night), and the team is winning closely, there is no option but going with Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman. Missing Dellin Betances does not help. But neither does missing Chad Green. Oh, the Yankees can throw Jonathan Holder out there if they feel like blowing the lead and having to fight to get it back.
Chad Green seems ready to resume his killer innings in high leverage situations but cannot as long as he is the Opener. Meanwhile, games like Saturday night where the latter three relievers could not throw strikes and yet somehow survived will sooner or later start turning into losses because you cannot live that close to the edge all the time. That quartet has to be getting tired and all the extra pitchers they are throwing does not help.
At the same time, the Open games are all wins and none of them happen without Green pumping in those strikes and being a beast. What winning percentage would there be if a Chance Adams or someone had been plugged in there? It wouldn't be 1.000. Jonathan Loaisiga and Domingo German are expected back around the All Star Game. Maybe that will help. The top four relievers are giving me a great deal of heartburn while a Chad Green who could help is toiling anonymously at the front of games, albeit very successfully.
If you have followed this blog along its bumpy course, you know that I hate everything that happens to do with this Opener thing. It is one part of my old-fashionness that I cannot seem to get out of my system. I can live with defensive shifts because batters can break it and do not. But there is something about Openers that rub me in all the wrong places.
The fact that the Tampa Bay Rays started it probably has something to do with it. The Rays are the "smart" team. The Rays are the "hip" team. The Rays are the "scrappy" team. Blech. Give me a root canal instead. I was dreading the Yankees copying the "smart" team and going with an Opener. When German went down with his hip problem, the Yankees could not wait to jump into the Opener pool. It is embarrassing to me.
While saying all that, I do have to admit that the decision to pursue such a personally embarrassing course has worked. And it has worked spectacularly. The Yankees have employed the tacky tactic six times and have won each of those games. The last three games Chad Green has pitched have been as the Opener. He has six "starts" or "opens" altogether.
The unfortunate thing for Green in these outings is that he gets little recognition. He cannot get a win. He cannot get a Hold or a Save. He cannot get any juice on the leverage index. All he can get is a pat on the back. Of his six starts, the second pitcher has gotten the victory four times. David Hale won the earliest one. Chance Adams won the second. The bullpen blew the lead but got the win later in the game in the third. Nestor Cortez Jr. has won two and the later bullpen got the sixth. All those wins and Chad Green got an inning or two in the box score.
It is too bad that so few people have noticed because Green has been awesome in his outings beginning the last week of May. Most know that he was truly horrible to start the season. His first ten outings led to an OPS against of 1.228. His ERA was 16.43 and his WHIP was 2.478. Brutal. He was sent to the minors, regained a bit of his mojo and came back to the Yankees.
Green was better in May after his call back to the Big Leagues. He still struggled a bit early in that callback. He finished the month with a 4.70 ERA and 1.304 WHIP. But he walked only one and struck out ten in 7.2 innings pitched. He was approaching more Chad Green historical numbers.
Starting with his last two appearances in May and now all of June, Chad Green has been spectacular covering eight appearances. He has not given up a homer, walked only one batter and struck out 20 batters in 11.1 innings pitched. He has given up one run in that span. His ERA for June is 0.96 and his WHIP is 1.071. If you toss out his one less than stellar relief outing in Toronto on June 6, he has been nearly perfect.
But here's the thing. Chad Green's last three appearances have been Opens. The Yankees have won them all, of course, but Green has not pitched in any games in between those Opens. So basically, this again stellar Chad Green is pitching two innings every fifth day. While he is thus employed, every time a Yankee starter goes five innings (which is nearly every night), and the team is winning closely, there is no option but going with Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman. Missing Dellin Betances does not help. But neither does missing Chad Green. Oh, the Yankees can throw Jonathan Holder out there if they feel like blowing the lead and having to fight to get it back.
Chad Green seems ready to resume his killer innings in high leverage situations but cannot as long as he is the Opener. Meanwhile, games like Saturday night where the latter three relievers could not throw strikes and yet somehow survived will sooner or later start turning into losses because you cannot live that close to the edge all the time. That quartet has to be getting tired and all the extra pitchers they are throwing does not help.
At the same time, the Open games are all wins and none of them happen without Green pumping in those strikes and being a beast. What winning percentage would there be if a Chance Adams or someone had been plugged in there? It wouldn't be 1.000. Jonathan Loaisiga and Domingo German are expected back around the All Star Game. Maybe that will help. The top four relievers are giving me a great deal of heartburn while a Chad Green who could help is toiling anonymously at the front of games, albeit very successfully.
Monday, May 13, 2019
The Yankees This Week
The New York Yankees' past week could not have gone more swimmingly. They took three of four from the fading Seattle Mariners (The Red Sox would demolish that team later in the week) and then went down to their personal house of horrors at Tropicana Field and took two of three from the front runners. Both of those wins came against the Bay Rays' stud pitchers, Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell. Of course, they still haven't found a way to beat the abominable "Opener" whenever the Rays cheapen the game by using that strategy. Sorry, folks, just my opinion...
The best news of all came yesterday when Chad Green was called back from Triple-A and threw bullets and struck out three straight batters. Welcome back to greatness, Mr. Green.
And so the Yankees find themselves just a half a game back in the AL East and the Red Sox are starting to play like the Red Sox and are only three back. Everything is starting to gel just like I predicted it would. The Yanks have returned home to Yankee Stadium and this week will play the Baltimore Orioles and those same Rays for the weekend. The Red Sox will host the Rockies and the Astros this week.
I believe tonight will mark the return of Aaron Hicks. I don't know if that will be a good thing or not. Other teams get players back like the Rays did Austin Meadows and he hits moonshots all over the place. The Yankees get players back like Miguel Andujar and they get one hit in the month of May. I have to say that I was surprised that the Yankees sent Mike Tauchman down to the minors as the corresponding move. It seemed to me that it should have been Andujar who needs to get some playing time and figure things out. Perhaps he should have had that operation after all.
The Yankees also placed Jonathan Loaisiga on the DL for a shoulder strain (uh oh) and have called up Chance Adams, who might start tonight's game. Hmm...
Let's face it, the Yankees need to sweep the Orioles. Teams like the Orioles are going nowhere and the Yankees other AL East competitors have no problem beating the O's regularly. The Yankees need to do so as well. Anything short of a sweep will be disappointing. The Orioles have zero pitching. I mean, none. Baltimore is dead last in the AL in ERA and the Yankees face starters, David Hess, Andrew Cashner and Dan Straily. All three are struggling with perhaps Cashner being the best of the trio.
The Yankees will counter with Adams (perhaps), JA Happ and Domingo German. It would be nice if Adams could pitch well and give some hope that he is a prospect many have hoped he would be, especially after last year's abysmal three game debut. He is only 24. But the clock is ticking. The thing is, even if Adams blows up, the Yankees should win in a slugfest.
After an off day on Thursday, the Yankees will host the Rays. Glasnow went on the DL right after his Yankee start, so they will not have to worry about him. But they cannot seem to hit Charlie Morton, Blake Snell is elite and, to be sure, there will be an opener in there somewhere.
When the Yankees have the Rays at home, they have to win and winning two of three would be great if they can do that again next weekend. It is a lot to expect from this continuing rag band of players, but they have spoiled us by keeping things interesting (understatement alert). A 6-1 week would be great. Anything less than 5-2 would be disappointing.
The best news of all came yesterday when Chad Green was called back from Triple-A and threw bullets and struck out three straight batters. Welcome back to greatness, Mr. Green.
And so the Yankees find themselves just a half a game back in the AL East and the Red Sox are starting to play like the Red Sox and are only three back. Everything is starting to gel just like I predicted it would. The Yanks have returned home to Yankee Stadium and this week will play the Baltimore Orioles and those same Rays for the weekend. The Red Sox will host the Rockies and the Astros this week.
I believe tonight will mark the return of Aaron Hicks. I don't know if that will be a good thing or not. Other teams get players back like the Rays did Austin Meadows and he hits moonshots all over the place. The Yankees get players back like Miguel Andujar and they get one hit in the month of May. I have to say that I was surprised that the Yankees sent Mike Tauchman down to the minors as the corresponding move. It seemed to me that it should have been Andujar who needs to get some playing time and figure things out. Perhaps he should have had that operation after all.
The Yankees also placed Jonathan Loaisiga on the DL for a shoulder strain (uh oh) and have called up Chance Adams, who might start tonight's game. Hmm...
Let's face it, the Yankees need to sweep the Orioles. Teams like the Orioles are going nowhere and the Yankees other AL East competitors have no problem beating the O's regularly. The Yankees need to do so as well. Anything short of a sweep will be disappointing. The Orioles have zero pitching. I mean, none. Baltimore is dead last in the AL in ERA and the Yankees face starters, David Hess, Andrew Cashner and Dan Straily. All three are struggling with perhaps Cashner being the best of the trio.
The Yankees will counter with Adams (perhaps), JA Happ and Domingo German. It would be nice if Adams could pitch well and give some hope that he is a prospect many have hoped he would be, especially after last year's abysmal three game debut. He is only 24. But the clock is ticking. The thing is, even if Adams blows up, the Yankees should win in a slugfest.
After an off day on Thursday, the Yankees will host the Rays. Glasnow went on the DL right after his Yankee start, so they will not have to worry about him. But they cannot seem to hit Charlie Morton, Blake Snell is elite and, to be sure, there will be an opener in there somewhere.
When the Yankees have the Rays at home, they have to win and winning two of three would be great if they can do that again next weekend. It is a lot to expect from this continuing rag band of players, but they have spoiled us by keeping things interesting (understatement alert). A 6-1 week would be great. Anything less than 5-2 would be disappointing.
Monday, May 06, 2019
The Yankees This Week - Seattle and Tampa Bay
The New York Yankees enter the second week in May and continue to hang on despite their incredible string of injuries. The two-game sweep by Arizona last week was unfortunate but taking two of three from a much-improved Minnesota Twins helped ease the pain a little bit. This could be an important week as the Yankees face two unexpectedly good teams in the Mariners and Bay Rays.
As expected, the Red Sox are starting to right their ship and are only a game under .500. They just lost David Price with elbow problems, but are in good shape otherwise. Also as expected, the Rays are not running away with the AL East as the opening weeks of the season seemed to portend. I did not believe it then and I do not believe it now. Still, they are a smart team and will pose problems for the Yankees this coming weekend, especially at their stink-house, Tropicana Field. More on that later.
First, the Yankees must deal with the Seattle Mariners who come to Yankee Stadium for a four-game set. The Mariners started on fire and were the big story (along with the Rays) in the AL at the start of the season. But they have lost nine of the team's last twelve games and the Astros have regained their expected spot at the top of the AL West. Frankly, the Mariners are a team with a ton of holes.
First off, the Mariners' current rotation consists of Felix Hernandez who, at this stage of his career, sort of resembles Pedro Martinez in his Mets days. There has been a lot of gas leaked out of his arm over the long haul and his reputation will get him a while, but he's no longer a great pitcher. The rest of the rotation consists of Mike Leake, Marco Gonzalez (who will come back to earth), Yusei Kikuchi and Eric Swanson. Despite Gonzalez's early success, Kikuchi and Swanson might be their best two. The Yankees will face the entire rotation except for Swanson.
The Mariners lead the American League in homers. Who saw that coming? But along with those homers comes many, many strikeouts as they lead the AL in that category too. This drags their OPS down to third in the AL and falling. However, Edwin Encarnacion always gives the Yankees fits and they have a DH named, Daniel Vogelbach, who is killing the ball and does not strike out a lot. Mitch Haniger is probably the team's best all-around player.
The Yankees will start CC Sabathia tonight which means two starting pitchers with 951 combined MLB starts, but their better days behind them. Which one can spin the most magic tonight? Masahiro Tanaka--always a 50-50 proposition--will be battling with Marco Estrada tomorrow. The Yankees have not announced a starter for Wednesday, but it could be Jonathan Loaisiga taking what was James Paxton's spot. JA Happ will face Kikuchi on Thursday.
Clint Frazier is back and in the lineup for the Yankees tonight and will play right field. That should help. The Yankees have wisely listened to me (heh) and are DHing Miguel Andujar and starting Gio Urshela at third. Nice. The lineup looks more potent than it has in more than a week now but Luke Voit has been slumping the last couple of games.
It would be nice if the Yankees could win three of four of these games and they are certainly capable of that. The Mariners' bullpen and the Yankees' bullpen have both been an adventure and it might come down to which team's pen performs better. The minimum is that the Yankees have to at least split this series.
After Thursday's game, the Yankees will fly down to that house of horrors in St. Petersburg to play the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays' offense is just middle of the road and the Yankees will catch them with Joey Wendle and Austin Meadows on the DL. Meadows has been a nice break out star and losing him hurts the Rays. Brandon Lowe and Tommy Pham are their two best remaining offensive players.
It will be a tough three game series for the Yankees offensively. They will miss Charlie Morton who gives them fits, but they will probably see Blake Snell at the end of the weekend (though he has struggled a bit lately) and definitely will see this year's wunderkind, Taylor Glasnow. Glasnow has been amazing thus far. I mean, super amazing.
There is a possibility of Aaron Hicks being ready for the weekend series, but frankly, the Yankees should wait until after the Tampa series. Why have Hicks running around on that green concrete as his first taste back?
My gut feelings is that facing Snell and Glasnow and thinking about the Yankees at that horror field and their lack of success there, the Yankees will be fortunate to win one of the three games. That is why winning three against the Mariners is important. This is certainly a week where the Yankees need to hold their own because, on review, it could be a long, long week for Yankee fans.
As expected, the Red Sox are starting to right their ship and are only a game under .500. They just lost David Price with elbow problems, but are in good shape otherwise. Also as expected, the Rays are not running away with the AL East as the opening weeks of the season seemed to portend. I did not believe it then and I do not believe it now. Still, they are a smart team and will pose problems for the Yankees this coming weekend, especially at their stink-house, Tropicana Field. More on that later.
First, the Yankees must deal with the Seattle Mariners who come to Yankee Stadium for a four-game set. The Mariners started on fire and were the big story (along with the Rays) in the AL at the start of the season. But they have lost nine of the team's last twelve games and the Astros have regained their expected spot at the top of the AL West. Frankly, the Mariners are a team with a ton of holes.
First off, the Mariners' current rotation consists of Felix Hernandez who, at this stage of his career, sort of resembles Pedro Martinez in his Mets days. There has been a lot of gas leaked out of his arm over the long haul and his reputation will get him a while, but he's no longer a great pitcher. The rest of the rotation consists of Mike Leake, Marco Gonzalez (who will come back to earth), Yusei Kikuchi and Eric Swanson. Despite Gonzalez's early success, Kikuchi and Swanson might be their best two. The Yankees will face the entire rotation except for Swanson.
The Mariners lead the American League in homers. Who saw that coming? But along with those homers comes many, many strikeouts as they lead the AL in that category too. This drags their OPS down to third in the AL and falling. However, Edwin Encarnacion always gives the Yankees fits and they have a DH named, Daniel Vogelbach, who is killing the ball and does not strike out a lot. Mitch Haniger is probably the team's best all-around player.
The Yankees will start CC Sabathia tonight which means two starting pitchers with 951 combined MLB starts, but their better days behind them. Which one can spin the most magic tonight? Masahiro Tanaka--always a 50-50 proposition--will be battling with Marco Estrada tomorrow. The Yankees have not announced a starter for Wednesday, but it could be Jonathan Loaisiga taking what was James Paxton's spot. JA Happ will face Kikuchi on Thursday.
Clint Frazier is back and in the lineup for the Yankees tonight and will play right field. That should help. The Yankees have wisely listened to me (heh) and are DHing Miguel Andujar and starting Gio Urshela at third. Nice. The lineup looks more potent than it has in more than a week now but Luke Voit has been slumping the last couple of games.
It would be nice if the Yankees could win three of four of these games and they are certainly capable of that. The Mariners' bullpen and the Yankees' bullpen have both been an adventure and it might come down to which team's pen performs better. The minimum is that the Yankees have to at least split this series.
After Thursday's game, the Yankees will fly down to that house of horrors in St. Petersburg to play the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays' offense is just middle of the road and the Yankees will catch them with Joey Wendle and Austin Meadows on the DL. Meadows has been a nice break out star and losing him hurts the Rays. Brandon Lowe and Tommy Pham are their two best remaining offensive players.
It will be a tough three game series for the Yankees offensively. They will miss Charlie Morton who gives them fits, but they will probably see Blake Snell at the end of the weekend (though he has struggled a bit lately) and definitely will see this year's wunderkind, Taylor Glasnow. Glasnow has been amazing thus far. I mean, super amazing.
There is a possibility of Aaron Hicks being ready for the weekend series, but frankly, the Yankees should wait until after the Tampa series. Why have Hicks running around on that green concrete as his first taste back?
My gut feelings is that facing Snell and Glasnow and thinking about the Yankees at that horror field and their lack of success there, the Yankees will be fortunate to win one of the three games. That is why winning three against the Mariners is important. This is certainly a week where the Yankees need to hold their own because, on review, it could be a long, long week for Yankee fans.
Thursday, April 18, 2019
A Realistic View Of The AL East
The title might be more of a reach as biases will surely crop up here. The one thing that is realistic is that the American League East is nowhere near where anyone expected it to be. The Tampa Bay Rays have jumped the season and its AL East rivals to build a quick five-and-a-half-game lead on the second place New York Yankees and an eight-and-a-half-game lead on the last place Boston Red Sox. How many people saw that coming?
The Yankees' rough start can be (in part) attributed to injuries. No team in baseball has a longer list of disabled players (I will never use the newfangled IL thing, so sue me). The bullpen has not been as much of a strength as expected. Who knows what having a healthy Dellin Betances available at the start of the season would have meant for the Yankees. The offense has been spotty with too many regulars missing and 4-A players getting too many at bats. Then there is the Red Sox.
The Red Sox have started the season in a real funk. Is it a World Series hangover? Did the long post-season take too much out of the starting pitchers? They have some holes, particularly at second, third and behind the plate. Expecting Dustin Pedroia to be able to come back was a pipe dream and now the Red Sox are stuck with an over-the-hill Eduardo Nunez who is terrible in the field and Brock Holt who seems unlikely to repeat last year's career year.
And, finally, there are the Bay Rays who never seem to lose in a similar way the Red Sox never seemed to lose last year. The Rays were projected as a 90-win team and, frankly, I thought that was high. The projection has now shifted to 94 wins and a division title. A lot has gone right for them so far. They lead the Majors in hard hit balls and their offensive OPS is terrific. Pitching was expected to be good, but it has been REALLY good as has the bullpen. Add to all these things the Rays' defense and you have a winning formula.
But let's be realistic here for a moment and try to remain as unbiased as possible. I do not care what the numbers are saying (run differential, offense, pitching), the Bay Rays are not this good of a team. Heck, I'll eat those words if I am wrong, but I do not think I am. Why exactly?
First, look at the early schedule thus far. Yes, they opened the season with the Houston Astros and beat them three out of four. The Astros were not themselves those first four games. The Astros started the season with a slumbering offense. That offense has since woken up and they are playing dominating baseball again. If the Rays were to play THESE Astros, the results would be far different.
After the Astros, the Bay Rays have faced the dregs of the dregs of baseball teams. The Rockies are a bad baseball team. Then they played the Giants, another bad baseball team. Those two teams are going to spar for last place in the NL West. Then they played the White Sox, another team that is not going anywhere. Then, to bring us up to date, the Rays have played five games against the Blue Jays and the Orioles. To recap, they had two series against the worst two teams in the NL West, a series against an also-ran in the AL Central and the two worst teams in the AL East.
The Rays' schedule stays somewhat soft until June. They do have two series against the Red Sox coming up, but those games are sandwiched around two series against the Royals. The other thing to look at is who the Rays are winning with on their roster. Their offense consists of a bunch of guys who they assembled and it has all miraculously worked. Ji-Man Choi? Brandon Lowe? Yandy Diaz? Austin Meadows? These guys have no track records. Are they this good? All of them? We'll see.
Plus, the only serious injury thus far is to Joey Wendle, last years ROY candidate. Ian Snell broke his toe, but he'll only miss one start. The Rays have zero depth. If anything happens to any of its players, they do not have replacements. The return to form of Kevin Kiermeier has been great and Tommy Pham was a good pickup as he has been an on-base machine.
I believe the Rays' pitching will hold up. But I do not believe in this offense over the long season. I still think that after all is said and done, they will be a 90-win team. That is good. Will it be better than the Red Sox and the Yankees?
Let's start with the Red Sox. Chris Sale will be better than he has started. He has been too good for too long to think otherwise. David Price will be fine. Nathan Eovaldi showed good signs last night of getting back to last year's form. The big question marks in the rotation are Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez. Porcello has had a very odd career where he has gone from Cy Young to terrible and back and forth. If this is another of those stinker years for him, that will hurt. Rodriguez still hasn't proved he can take his "stuff" to a winning level.
The offense will not be as good as last year, but it will be better than it is now. Mookie Betts is too talented not to think this is just a slow start. Andrew Benintendi is very good. Xander Bogaerts and Mitch Moreland will contribute meaningfully. JD Martinez is one of the best hitters in the game. The offense will be fine despite a black hole at catcher and at second. Rafael Devers is still only 22-years-old so who knows what he will be. Somehow, the Red Sox will find a second baseman and this offense will be fine.
Can they win 90 games? Yes, sure--even if it does not seem likely at the moment.
And then, there is the Yankees. Realistically, Aaron Judge has not gotten going yet. The jury is still out on Luke Voit long term. Gleyber Torres has been effective but can be so much better. Clint Frazier has found it. DJ LeMahieu has been a great pickup. Giancarlo Stanton will come back as will Gary Sanchez and the ball will start flying around the park again.
The Yankee bullpen will be fine even if Betances does not get back any time soon. Joe Harvey has been a nice find. It would do the bullpen good if CC Sabathia was treated as a five-inning "Opener" with Luis Cessa designated as his caddy (or Gio Gonzalez if they choose to go that route). The Rotation is not killer, but it is good depending on how well Domingo German can hang in there.
The bottom line? Can the Yankees win 90 games? Sure they can. Will they? I still think they will. The injuries sucked off several games of the team's original projection, but you would think things will have to improve on that front eventually.
The Bay Rays are not as good as they have appeared. The Yankees are not as mediocre and the Red Sox are not this bad. Injuries to the Yankees and the bad start by the Red Sox have guaranteed a three team race. But that is what it will be in the end. The Rays are not running away with the division, not in my humble opinion. But talk to me again in July and my perspective might be different.
The Yankees' rough start can be (in part) attributed to injuries. No team in baseball has a longer list of disabled players (I will never use the newfangled IL thing, so sue me). The bullpen has not been as much of a strength as expected. Who knows what having a healthy Dellin Betances available at the start of the season would have meant for the Yankees. The offense has been spotty with too many regulars missing and 4-A players getting too many at bats. Then there is the Red Sox.
The Red Sox have started the season in a real funk. Is it a World Series hangover? Did the long post-season take too much out of the starting pitchers? They have some holes, particularly at second, third and behind the plate. Expecting Dustin Pedroia to be able to come back was a pipe dream and now the Red Sox are stuck with an over-the-hill Eduardo Nunez who is terrible in the field and Brock Holt who seems unlikely to repeat last year's career year.
And, finally, there are the Bay Rays who never seem to lose in a similar way the Red Sox never seemed to lose last year. The Rays were projected as a 90-win team and, frankly, I thought that was high. The projection has now shifted to 94 wins and a division title. A lot has gone right for them so far. They lead the Majors in hard hit balls and their offensive OPS is terrific. Pitching was expected to be good, but it has been REALLY good as has the bullpen. Add to all these things the Rays' defense and you have a winning formula.
But let's be realistic here for a moment and try to remain as unbiased as possible. I do not care what the numbers are saying (run differential, offense, pitching), the Bay Rays are not this good of a team. Heck, I'll eat those words if I am wrong, but I do not think I am. Why exactly?
First, look at the early schedule thus far. Yes, they opened the season with the Houston Astros and beat them three out of four. The Astros were not themselves those first four games. The Astros started the season with a slumbering offense. That offense has since woken up and they are playing dominating baseball again. If the Rays were to play THESE Astros, the results would be far different.
After the Astros, the Bay Rays have faced the dregs of the dregs of baseball teams. The Rockies are a bad baseball team. Then they played the Giants, another bad baseball team. Those two teams are going to spar for last place in the NL West. Then they played the White Sox, another team that is not going anywhere. Then, to bring us up to date, the Rays have played five games against the Blue Jays and the Orioles. To recap, they had two series against the worst two teams in the NL West, a series against an also-ran in the AL Central and the two worst teams in the AL East.
The Rays' schedule stays somewhat soft until June. They do have two series against the Red Sox coming up, but those games are sandwiched around two series against the Royals. The other thing to look at is who the Rays are winning with on their roster. Their offense consists of a bunch of guys who they assembled and it has all miraculously worked. Ji-Man Choi? Brandon Lowe? Yandy Diaz? Austin Meadows? These guys have no track records. Are they this good? All of them? We'll see.
Plus, the only serious injury thus far is to Joey Wendle, last years ROY candidate. Ian Snell broke his toe, but he'll only miss one start. The Rays have zero depth. If anything happens to any of its players, they do not have replacements. The return to form of Kevin Kiermeier has been great and Tommy Pham was a good pickup as he has been an on-base machine.
I believe the Rays' pitching will hold up. But I do not believe in this offense over the long season. I still think that after all is said and done, they will be a 90-win team. That is good. Will it be better than the Red Sox and the Yankees?
Let's start with the Red Sox. Chris Sale will be better than he has started. He has been too good for too long to think otherwise. David Price will be fine. Nathan Eovaldi showed good signs last night of getting back to last year's form. The big question marks in the rotation are Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez. Porcello has had a very odd career where he has gone from Cy Young to terrible and back and forth. If this is another of those stinker years for him, that will hurt. Rodriguez still hasn't proved he can take his "stuff" to a winning level.
The offense will not be as good as last year, but it will be better than it is now. Mookie Betts is too talented not to think this is just a slow start. Andrew Benintendi is very good. Xander Bogaerts and Mitch Moreland will contribute meaningfully. JD Martinez is one of the best hitters in the game. The offense will be fine despite a black hole at catcher and at second. Rafael Devers is still only 22-years-old so who knows what he will be. Somehow, the Red Sox will find a second baseman and this offense will be fine.
Can they win 90 games? Yes, sure--even if it does not seem likely at the moment.
And then, there is the Yankees. Realistically, Aaron Judge has not gotten going yet. The jury is still out on Luke Voit long term. Gleyber Torres has been effective but can be so much better. Clint Frazier has found it. DJ LeMahieu has been a great pickup. Giancarlo Stanton will come back as will Gary Sanchez and the ball will start flying around the park again.
The Yankee bullpen will be fine even if Betances does not get back any time soon. Joe Harvey has been a nice find. It would do the bullpen good if CC Sabathia was treated as a five-inning "Opener" with Luis Cessa designated as his caddy (or Gio Gonzalez if they choose to go that route). The Rotation is not killer, but it is good depending on how well Domingo German can hang in there.
The bottom line? Can the Yankees win 90 games? Sure they can. Will they? I still think they will. The injuries sucked off several games of the team's original projection, but you would think things will have to improve on that front eventually.
The Bay Rays are not as good as they have appeared. The Yankees are not as mediocre and the Red Sox are not this bad. Injuries to the Yankees and the bad start by the Red Sox have guaranteed a three team race. But that is what it will be in the end. The Rays are not running away with the division, not in my humble opinion. But talk to me again in July and my perspective might be different.
Monday, December 22, 2014
Who are the Tampa Bay Rays now?
We have become so used to the Tampa Bay Rays being the smartest kids on the block that last year's down season seemed unreal. Now, after a turbulent off season that has seen two pieces of the brain trust leave for greener pastures, are the Rays still the Rays? Well, they still have Evan Longoria and Tropicana Field, so there's that. But who or what is this team now?
The body blows actually began last year when David Price was dealt to the Tigers. Price, more than any other Rays player was the face of that team. His presence on Twitter, his personality and, of course, his talent on the field made him a star. A bit of the genius luster came off on what was perceived to be little return for Price with the trade.
As soon as the 2014 season was over, Andrew Friedman bolted to the Dodgers. Friedman was long considered one of the best front office people anywhere. His departure also created a loophole in Joe Maddon's contract. Maddon opted out and after a brief courtship and bidding war, he has now gone to manage the Cubs.
Whether the reputation is earned or not, Maddon had become the model of what a great manager was supposed to look like. He was the master motivator and innovator. He helped turn what was a devil of a franchise into a winning one. He made other managers over-manage to try to keep up with him. If Friedman was one part of the brain, then Maddon was the other along with being the heart of the franchise.
The spigot stayed open after Friedman and Maddon. Jeremy Hellickson is gone. Wil Myers (in a shocker) is gone. Joel Peralta, Ryan Hanigan and Matt Joyce are gone. Jose Molina finally tipped over the age scale.
This should go without saying, but time will tell on how these trades all work out. But from this early standpoint, only two of all those prospects netted by all those trades are ranked by Baseball Prospectus. Add them to the Price trade haul and all the deals feel more like salary dumps than strategic moves.
David Price's departure hurts, but the pitching still looks like the most impressive part of this team. Alex Cobb has become a star. Chris Archer was terrific until it seemed like he hit a wall in the second half. He should benefit from that experience. Matt Moore will be back in the early part of the season. Jake Odorizzi can be as good as Hellickson or better. Drew Smyly has a chance to be very good. The only real question in the rotation is Alex Colome, but he is a highly rated prospect who has shown poise in his two cups of coffee.
The bullpen needs to get a healthy Jake McGee back but, otherwise, has some good arms, especially in Brad Boxberger. Kevin Jepsen and Ernesto Frieri can make the group formidable.
And so the pitching looks solid at least with perhaps a hole or two that time will sort out. But the offense, already 14th in the American League last year in OPS has taken more of a hit than the pitching.
I cannot understand giving up on Wil Myers, but perhaps they had their reasons. Longoria was finally healthy and played all 162 games. But his output offensively was surprisingly mundane. Desmond Jennings has to be considered a disappointment thus far. Ben Zobrist has been great, but will be 34 in 2015. Other than those guys, there is a whole lot of meh in the rest of the lineup.
Kevin Kiermaier is a very good player but his offense faded a bit at the end and he will need to prove himself again in the lineup. James Loney is useful, but behind these five guys previously mentioned, the lineup as it stands now does not scare anyone. An unproven Steven Souza, David DeJesus, Rene Rivera and Yunel Escobar round out the group.
The other bothersome thing about the offense that is currently constructed is that it is overly right-handed in a park that seems to favor left-handed batters more. Both catchers are right-handed and of a really weak bench, only Nick Franklin is a switch-hitter who shows some promise and is at least young enough to emerge from the group.
With the Rays' 2014 finish, perhaps some of the mystique was already gone on these upstart Rays. After an impressive run of success, everything came to a screeching halt last season and only a late-season surge prevented them from fighting the Red Sox for the bottom spot in the AL East.
A year later, with their GM and manager gone and several players becoming more expensive gone as well, it is difficult to gauge who this team is now. Has the sun set on this Rays team or is a new dawn about to begin? The former seems more likely than the latter, but time will tell. The only thing that is sure about the 2015 Rays: They will feel really different.
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Jeremy Hellickson and thoughts on defense
I have been looking at all the angles on the Jeremy Hellickson trade that brought two prospects to the Tampa Bay Rays from the Arizona Diamondbacks. And all that contemplation led to some thoughts about the recent history of both teams and what might have contributed from their falls from grace over the past few seasons. A lot of my thoughts ended up settling on defense.
The thought for years was that Jeremy Hellickson was not nearly as good as his results. In 2011 his ERA was 2.95 but his FIP was 4.44. Similarly, in 2012, Hellickson's ERA was 3.10 but his FIP was 4.60. He also had a high strand rate of 80% or better in both seasons.
It all seemed to catch up with Hellickson in 2013 and his ERA ballooned to overtake his FIP and that lack of success continued into his injury-shortened 2014. Those of us who felt that Hellickson was overrated clucked like proud chickens and said, "See!?" Perhaps our thinking is too simplistic.
The reason this resonates with me was watching the post season this past year. The Orioles and, more pointedly, the Royals seemed to make hay with flawed teams because their fielders seemed to catch everything in sight, especially in big spots. Every time you tuned in, some Royal was diving and making a play. More than anything else besides perhaps the bullpen, defense seemed to define the Royals.
If you look closely at the Orioles, the most drastic change from 2011, when they were terrible, to 2012, 2013 and 2014 was their pitchers' team BABIP or batting average for balls in play. In 2011, the Orioles' BABIP was .302. The next year, that figure went down to .285 and the team won 93 games. In 2014, that figure went down to .280 and they won 96 games.
While BABIP is not a magic bullet to point at for the sole reason a team succeeds, it does point to better defense and team positioning.
The Royals lost 90 games in 2012. Their pitchers' BABIP was .311! The team has won 86 games or better both of the last two seasons and that BABIP is down to the .291 range for both seasons. This corresponds to a defense that ranked first among all teams in team defense in 2014. In 2012, the Royals' team defense finished 18th among 30 teams in team defense. That has to make a difference.
Let's look at the Rays during Hellickson's career. In 2011, the Rays finished second among the thirty teams in defense. The Rays were sixth in 2012. They fell to ninth in 2013 and were only fourteenth in 2014. Just to give you an idea of the drop, according to Fangraphs.com, the Rays' defense was worth 59.8 runs in 2011. It was worth 4.5 runs (total!) in 2014. That is a huge drop. Hellickson's BABIP is only .269 for his career, but has been over .300 the last two seasons.
Just for kicks and giggles, I looked at David Price's BABIP statistics over the years with the Rays and 2014 marked the third year in a row that his BABIP had gone up, so there does seem to be some sort of relationship.
So what is going to happen as Hellickson goes to the Diamondbacks? The Diamondbacks have had a similar and maybe more dramatic fall in team defense. In 2011 the Diamondbacks were the best defense in baseball. They were strong at shortstop, the outfield could fly and they were also strong behind the plate and at third base. They won 94 games and their pitchers' BABIP was .290.
In 2012 Stephen Drew got hurt, someone thought it was a good idea to break up the terrific outfield defense and put Jason Kubel out there and the defense fell to 13th and the team won thirteen less games. The BABIP for its pitchers went up over .300.
The 2013 Diamondbacks won the same number of games as the 2012 version, but this time the defense bounced back to second place. The outfield minus Kubel was again strong and the up the middle infield was strong as well.
2014 was a fielding disaster for the Diamondbacks. Mark Trumbo proved that the team hadn't learned from the Kubel education, Gerardo Parra was moved from left to right. It just didn't work and the team was awful. The team went from a pitching BABIP of .296 in 2013 to .316 in 2014. That is a full twenty point swing!
The bad news is this is what Jeremy Hellickson is getting himself into. However, there is hope. The entire front office and the manager on the field have all been cleaned out and perhaps the focus will again be on defense and preventing runs. Heck, it couldn't get much worse, so it has to get better under Tony La Russa's house.
The Diamondbacks play in Arizona where the hot and dry air means that the baseball flies. Defense has to be a key to how well the team can compete in those conditions. It's not quite as bad as playing in Coors Field, but it's a tough environment. Hellickson is more of a fly ball pitcher. Outfield defense will be very important to him.
If the Diamondbacks improve defensively, Jeremy Hellickson, if healthy, will thrive in his new environment. He will get to pitch quite a few times in LA, San Diego and San Francisco, which should help even out the Chase Field disadvantage. He will not have to deal with the DH regularly and lineups aren't as deep. IF the Diamondbacks can support him defensively, he can be a nice addition. That is one heck of an IF though.
Saturday, November 01, 2014
Joe Maddon jumps sinking ship
Much of the focus of this week's Joe Maddon escapades centers around the benefit to the Cubs and the hose job to Rick Renteria, the (now) former Cubs manager displaced by Maddon. Personally, I can't blame the Cubs for what they did and I think they handled things with Renteria the best they could. The thing is, thus far, this has been a Cubs story. But what about the Tampa Bay Rays?
Joe Maddon became a "free agent" due to the jumping ship of Andrew Friedman to the Dodgers. The two associated geniuses are given much of the credit for building the Rays to a perennially contending team using smarts and research. They were the modern twosome superheroes of the information age of baseball.
Looking at the decisions both made at face value, you could call this a salary grab. The Rays do not have deep pockets and neither Friedman or Maddon were likely to make the kind of money staying in St. Pete than they receive with their new ventures. We could just leave it there if we want since so many of us consider money the most important consideration to humanity.
How many of us have made a truly financial decision without considering the situations we are leaving and the ones we are heading to? Would most of us take a salary leap if we had to work in a no-win situation? I think most of us would hesitate. Would we pause if we were really happy where we were? Many of us would. It's not always about money. The important goals of anyone's pyramid of needs are complex once you get beyond the survival block at the bottom of the pyramid.
All that said, perhaps it can be stated that Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman jumped ship at the right time. The losing record put up by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2014 after a handful of 90+ win seasons could indicate that baseball has caught up to the Rays. The Rays have made hay because they were smarter than most teams and had to be because they could not pay high priced talent. The pipeline of talent from the minors, often enhanced by well-timed trades of expensive talent, may be drying up.
I remember earlier in the season when Maddon was asked about all the teams shifting infielders--something the Rays pioneered. Maddon said that things were getting harder because everyone is using information when the Rays were one of the few in the past to do so.
Friedman and Maddon had to be somewhat discouraged of having to trade away their best talent all the time. David Price had to be particularly galling to jettison due to money reasons. Constantly having to retool after moving talent that gets too expensive had to be exhausting and frustrating.
Friedman can take what he learned in St. Pete and now has unlimited pockets in Los Angeles. That has to feel really good. The chance to turn the Cubs around with so much talent in the system and the Cubs' willingness to spend to get to the next step had to be appealing to Maddon. Plus, it has to be any manager's dream to be the one to break the 107 year drought in Chicago.
My totally speculative suggestion is that perhaps both Friedman and Maddon knew that they had taken the Rays as far as they could take them and that a drought is about to begin anew for the Rays. Ben Zobrist is getting too expensive and a decision will have to be made there and the minor leagues look thinner than at any point in the past five years.
I am not saying that talented people still do not sit in positions of authority for the Rays. There is every indication that Michael Silverman, Chaim Bloom and Erik Neander are talented executives. What I am saying is that financial limitations will always exist for the Rays with their current stadium situation and that they currently have less talent to cull from than in years past.
The Andrew Friedman and Joe Maddon years in St. Pete were exciting and fun. Perhaps both men knew the fun would be harder to come by in the next few years and this might be the best time to sell their abilities to new teams. They have sold themselves at the highest peak of their financial worth to teams which could blossom in the next few seasons.
That potential along with what seems to be a sinking of the Rays' current situation make the timing of these moves. The Rays should be watched closely in the next couple of seasons. As for Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman, they have parlayed their success for the Rays to set themselves up for life.
Thursday, July 24, 2014
The Rays would not stay dead
American League East fans outside of Florida had to feel good about life on June 10, 2014 when the Tampa Bay Rays were fifteen games out of first place and were eighteen games under .500. After all, the Rays have been the perennial thorn in everyone's side winning over 90 games five of the previous six seasons on a shoestring budget and with a manager who had too much fun, showed too much cool and was everyone's resident genius. The Rays' plight was a comfort.
Even as late as June 24, 2014, the Rays were seventeen games under .500 and thirteen games back. People started speculating on where David Price and Ben Zobrist would end up by the trading deadline. The Rays were dead. They were out of it. They could not score. They had a lousy bullpen. Injuries had wrecked its rotation.
But since June 24, the Rays took three of four from the Orioles, swept the Yankees three straight, took three of four from the Tigers, had a little problem with Kansas City, took two of three from the Blue Jays, swept three from the Twins and have beaten the Cardinals' two best pitchers on successive nights. They were 17-5 from that point to now and are 13-4 in July.
Now the team is just four games under .500 and just seven games out of first place. Suddenly, every fan of every other AL East team is nervous and sweating those danged Rays who would not stay dead.
Now there seems to be little question for the need to trade David Price or Ben Zobrist. The bullpen that was terrible has flipped with Jake McGee as the closer and Brad Boxberger as the set up guys. McGee has a WHIP of 0.864 and Boxberger's is even better at 0.857. McGee has a strikeout to walk ratio of 5.50.
And they pretty much don't have to worry about much more than those two because Price has been amazing, Alex Cobb has come back with a vengeance, Chris Archer is nasty and even Jake Odorizzi has really turned his season around.
Did you know that Odorizzi is striking out more than ten batters per nine innings? I didn't until I started looking at those statistics. This is suddenly a really challenging rotation.
So far, we have just discussed the pitching. The offense has averaged 4.9 runs scored per game for those last 22 games after averaging 3.96 runs per game for the season. Kevin Kiermaier has provided a huge lift to the offense (where do they get these guys!?) and Zobrist and company have hit much better as the season has hit the present time.
The Rays have a +27 run differential in July as the pitching has hit its stride and the offense has gained more traction. Not too much is going wrong for the Rays right now.
If the Rays can survive a coming stretch where they play the Red Sox, Brewers, Angels and A's, they will be in good shape and then have seven games against the Cubs and Rangers. They do not have an easy road in their last sixty games. But they are set up to make some noise.
Yeah, the Rays were dead and fans all over the American League East were feeling good and making toasts. The Rays did not stay dead. They never do. And those toasts have turned to drinking binges of worry. They may take some comfort in the odds-makers giving the Rays a slim choice, but they know better. We all know better.
Wednesday, June 04, 2014
Teams and players that are really slow
I read with interest David Brown's reporting of a warning the Dodgers received from Major League Baseball about their pitchers being too slow delivering pitches. The piece interested me because the pace of some players (or lack of it to put it properly) is a pet peeve of mine. As soon as I read the piece, I thought of Josh Beckett because he has always been slow. But he isn't the main culprit. And if the truth is told, the Dodgers are baseball's biggest time problem.
As Brown points out, the Dodgers are the third slowest team when it comes to a nine-inning game behind the Rays and the Yankees. One would hope that the two teams ahead of the Dodgers received the same warnings. But as usual, nothing will become of any of it. Brown also pointed out the fines issued for slow play are a mere pittance and will cause no significant behavior modifications.
If you do a custom search on Fangraphs.com's leaderboard to add pace to the mix, the Dodgers have two slow starters in the top 25 slowest pitchers to the plate. Zack Greinke is thirteenth and Clayton Kershaw is 23rd. Both of those pitchers make a gazillion dollars and neither is going to worry about a $5,000 fine. Heck, they probably spend that once a week taking teammates out to eat.
But the Yankees have two in the top ten in Masahiro Tanaka (ninth) and Hiroki Kuroda (fourth). The Rays hold the top three spots as Chris Archer, Erik Bedard and David Price ALL average over 26 seconds to the plate. That is ridiculous.
I don't watch a lot of Rays' games, but I do watch the Yankees every day and those two Yankee pitchers are ball rubbers (boy, that sounds bad). And since the game has changed drastically in my lifetime and a baseball is replaced if someone sneezes, the pitchers are always getting new balls.
Both Tanaka and Kuroda throw the splitter and put a lot of balls in the dirt. So they are always getting new balls. They always rub the baseballs when receiving a new one. That adds to the time. I don't know how you fix that except by reverting back to the days when a baseball had to be nearly cover-less before it was replaced.
The Rays as a team are the slowest staff in baseball. The entire team averages 26.6 seconds to deliver the ball on average. The closest team to them is the Giants at 24.6 seconds. That is a major difference. I have always respected the pitching coach for the Rays, but face it, the Rays aren't pitching all that well this year and their fielders are not fielding that well either. Maybe they should speed it up a little. At this point, it couldn't hurt.
Whereas the Dodgers' starters aren't as slow as the Yankees' or the Rays' starters, the bullpen is slower than death. J.P. Howell and Chris Withrow (may his elbow rest in peace) both averaged over 28 seconds and Kenley Jansen and Jamey Wright both average well over 26 seconds. Those are numbers that used to be reached only by Jose Valverde and now we have an entire bullpen that slow. Come on now.
We shouldn't focus on just the pitching. Batters determine pace too. Every batter in baseball seems to have to adjust their batting gloves, body armor and the like to hit a baseball after every pitch. It has gotten terrible. Derek Jeter has gotten slower as he ages and has become a culprit as well. Are you old enough to remember Jeter making fun of Nomar Garciaparra at the All Star Game? Now he is just as bad as Nomar ever was averaging over 25 seconds in between pitches and he is the 14th slowest in baseball.
Troy Tulowitzki, who wears the Number 2 on his back because of Jeter is currently the slowest batter as far as pace goes. He is over 27 seconds, which is terrible. He is one of three over the 27 second threshold. There is also Hanley Ramirez and Danny Espinosa. The Dodgers have three in the top twenty with Yasiel Puig at Number 7 and Matt Kemp at Number 16.
Dodgers' batters are the slowest as a group followed by a tie of the Rockies and Brewers. The quickest team to step into the box is the Toronto Blue Jays at 22 seconds. And the way they are hitting shows that you don't need all that extra time to get the job done.
It is no wonder why we like guys like Mark Buehrle so much. Get the ball and fire. That's the way it should be. It is up to baseball to stop all the walking around out of the batters' box in between pitches and all the walks around the mound. It is in MLB's purview to enforce its own rules and starting handing out balls for not delivering the ball on time. And forcing guys into the batters' box. But MLB doesn't have the gumption to do so. And little gnat sting fines are not going to change anything.
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