Corey Kluber and Clayton Kershaw win Walter Johnson Award

The Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA) has announced that Corey Kluber barely edged out Felix Hernandez for the American League Walter Johnson Award and that Clayton Kershaw won every vote for the National League award.

The official ballot of the General Chapter of the BBA (made up of writers who write generally about baseball and not about one particular team or area) had King Felix just barely ahead of Kluber. The BBA tallied all the ballots from the various chapters to come up with the winners of the award for 2014 which celebrates the best pitchers in each league.

Kershaw was also an overwhelming winner on the General Chapter's ballot with every first place vote except one. Take note of the fact that both winners share the exact same initials!

For the official announcement, press release and voting results, click the link in the first paragraph of this post to the official BBA site.

Congratulations to both Corey Kluber and Clayton Kershaw for their terrific seasons which earned these awards.

Are the Indians this good?

I struggle between thinking that Spring Training means diddly to seeing a team like the Cleveland Indians being 11-2 so far in their spring schedule and wondering if I should be impressed. I think that if everyone expected the Indians to be terrible--and they don't--then I would think nothing of the record. But in light of a surprising 92-win season in 2013, maybe the spring record means something and looks ahead to the season to come.

At first glance, the Indians did not seem to improve over a year ago. In fact, some notable subtractions lead you to wonder if the team's pitching will be weaker than a season ago. Gone are Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, Matt Albers, Rich Hill and Joe Smith--all to free agency.

Jimenez and Kazmir accounted for 61 starts and 23 wins and Kazmir was the team's only left-handed starter, something the team has none of this season. Joe Smith was one of their best relief pitchers in 2013, Albers had a good season and Hill was a LOOGY with occasional successes and failures.

The current rotation projects to be Justin Masterson, Corey Kluber, Zach McAllister, Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco. That has the potential to be a pretty solid rotation. Salazar has to take the next step in his development and Kluber and McAllister have to consistently show what they did in flashes a season ago. Masterson is not your typical ace and can be anywhere from terrific to mediocre depending on the start.

For depth, Tyler Cloyd has looked good this spring, Shaun Marcum has to come back from injury, T.J. House was already optioned, but he is the only left-handed option. And Trevor Bauer continues to baffle with why he cannot break through in the Majors.

The bullpen will benefit from a healthy Vinnie Pestano, who is very hard to hit when he is on, John Axford, who needs to find his old Brewers form and Josh Outman and Mark Rzepczynski from the left side. Rzepczynski must stay in baseball because his nickname, "Scrabble," is among the funniest ever!

The bullpen could be and should be as good as last year's model. If not, they are fairly easy to rebuild.

The only real upgrade on offense should be David Murphy in right field. Murphy, if you discount last year as a fluke, is a big offensive upgrade on what Stubbs gave the Indians last year.

The other offensive upgrades should come from within the team itself. To consider the team won 92 games with Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn and Asdrubal Cabrera all having seasons below their career norms. If two of the three bounce back, a lot more offense will be created.

Jason Kipnis has turned into a star, Michael Brantley is reliable and predictable and should have some new-found confidence with his new contract. Yan Gomes has taken over behind the plate and excelled last season while former starting catcher, Carlos Santana will play third if Lonnie Chisenhall cannot figure it out, or DH.

The bench should be very strong with Ryan Raburn mashing from the right side, Jason Giambi walking more than hitting and good utility options with Justin Sellers, Mike Aviles and funnyman, Elliot Johnson.

The pitching can be as good as a year ago or it could be worse. I cannot see it being better than 2013. But if it can be as good, then the offense should be better just with internal options having bounce-back seasons.

The wild card here is Terry Francona. I happen to think Francona is in the group of top five managers in baseball. His record with the Red Sox and with the Indians last season speak volumes of somehow getting his players to perform better than the average team.

Fangraphs has the Indians projected at 82 wins. That is a full ten wins less than a season ago. That is a pretty big drop-off. I am hard pressed to think they can repeat 92 wins, though I can never discount the Francona-effect. I cannot see them losing 80 games either as predicted.

I am pretty sure this is a good enough team to win 85 to 88 games. That will put the Indians in the hunt. Just don't expect the Indians to win 82% of their games, which the team is doing this spring.

Brantley extension shows changing MLB economy

Michael Brantley will not blow you away with his statistics. He is slightly above league average for his bat, a good base runner with just barely acceptable stolen base success and a league average fielder. And yet, in these days where the cost of a win keeps going up, the Cleveland Indians spent $25 million spread over four years and a fifth could cost them another $11 million to extend Brantley. And it still ends up being a good deal for the Indians. Say what!?

This is not to belittle Michael Brantley. He is a nice player. He is useful. He is better than replacement. But with Michael Bourn in center field, Brantley is a left fielder without power and decent on-base skills. He will give you about a .320 wOBA and a range of 1.5 to 2.0 of WAR. And that is worth $25 million? These days, it is actually worth more.

A win (the "w" in the WAR equation) is currently worth $5 million. That figure has risen from about $3.7 million in the not too distant past. Brantley had his typical season in 2013 and was worth 1.7 WAR. If you do the math, 1.7 times $5 million is $8.5 million in value. $25 million spread over four seasons is $6.22 million a season. So you see that despite Brantley not being a "star," he is now a bargain.

Even if you accept the team option of $11 million at the end of the deal for the fifth year, you still stay ahead. That would make the total deal worth $36 million over five years or $7.2 million per season and you are still ahead.

According to one projection, Brantley should be worth a total of 7.5 WAR over the next four years. He is entering his Age 27 season. Regression models show two peak years and then a gradual decline. 7.5 WAR is currently worth $37.5 million, or $12.5 million over what the Indians will be paying him.

If you add in the fifth year, then Brantley should compile 9.2 WAR or $46.2 million of value for $36 million the team will have to spend. That is a good deal no matter how you look at it. And even better, the deal will end before Brantley starts to really slide down over the regression cycle of his career.

One other point is overlooked here. The price of a win keeps going up. The four year contract that is already a bargain for the Indians becomes even more so if the cost of a win keeps rising the way it has.

It is understandable if the first reaction to the total cost of the contract for a player just north of average like Michael Brantley seems like a whole lot of money. But it is really a good deal for the Indians in today's market. We are just going to have to get used to meh players being this expensive.

Ralph Kiner and the 1955 pennant race

Ralph Kiner's play in 1955 almost made a difference in the pennant race between the Indians and the Yankees. Unfortunately, his back broke down in the home stretch and it was the Yankees who went to the World Series. Check out my post on It's About the Money, Stupid.

American League Manager of the Year - Terry Francona

Selecting one Major League manager over another is truly a subjective enterprise. How do you measure managers? I have tried over the course of this site's history to try to figure out such a system. It does not work. I have looked at Pythagorean Win-Loss figures. I have looked at other models and methods of measuring a manager. Nothing solid comes from the exercises. How can John Farrell be a terrible manager in Toronto and then great in Boston? Were the Yankees lucky to win as many games with their talent or did Joe Girardi do a masterful job? There really is no way to quantify it. And yet, there is this award given to managers every year. So our job as baseball writers is to figure it out...somehow.

There are no shortage of candidates in the American League. You have the aforementioned Girardi and Farrell. You have Terry Francona, who, in his first year, got the Indians into the post season and won 92 games. You have Bob Melvin of the Oakland A's. You have Joe Maddon and Ron Washington and Jim Leyland. All of these managers had teams that performed admirably and most at least gave their teams a shot at the post season.

I have pluses and minuses for each one. Jim Leyland, for example, refuses to join the 21st Century game and only finished a game above the Indians, a team they thrashed in head-to-head competition. Joe Girardi did seem to get the most out of his awful, injury-riddled and aging team. He is the master of bullpen manipulation. But at the same time, he stuck with guys too long like Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay. Some will argue that he had nobody else. There is always somebody else.

Francona's team was terrible against the Tigers. Joe Maddon is the master of the metrics and for motivating his team (or so we are told). But he gets too cute at times and moves too many players around too often. Ron Washington gets criticized often for his love of the bunt and other on-field decisions. The Red Sox should have won even more than 97 games with their run differential. There are hardly clear-cut answers here. But somebody has to win.

I have boiled down my three choices to Terry Francona, John Farrell and Bob Melvin.

Melvin's team, the A's, proved that last year was not a fluke. They finished dead on with their run differential. They should have won 96 games and they won 96 games. They also had three awful teams in their division that they played nineteen times a piece in the Mariners, Angels and Astros.

Melvin got the nod last year because his team was considered a surprise. They were not a surprise this year. Does that rule him out? It shouldn't.  But again, I am rattled a bit by the competition in his division. Even the Rangers were not as strong as past years.

John Farrell certainly got rid of the bad mojo left behind by Bobby Valentine. With a few exceptions, his team performed brilliantly and stayed relatively healthy. He caught a break when his first two choices for closers came up lame and Uehara became the best relief pitcher in the American League. I cannot get beyond the fact that with the Red Sox scoring so much and pitching so well, their Pythagorean win-loss record was 100 wins and they won 97. And how could he go from being so terrible in Toronto to being so good in Boston?

There was that record against the Tigers. But Francona did finish one game behind the Tigers and won 92 games. According to their run differential, they should have won 90. So that is a plus. Then, Francona also had 38 games against the Twins and the White Sox which was a similar argument against Melvin.

But my choice comes down to Francona. Again, I would not argue if any of these guys won because it is so subjective. My final reason for picking Terry Francona is that he won 92 games despite an offense that finished eighth out of fifteen AL teams in OPS and seventh in pitching ERA. In other words, his team won with less talent than the Red Sox, the A's and the Tigers. And unlike Farrell, Francona's track record speaks for itself.

Here is my final (yes, subjective) list (I would fire the last six):

1. Terry Francona
2. Bob Melvin
3. John Farrell
4. Joe Girardi
5. Joe Maddon
6. Jim Leyland
7. Buck Showalter
8. Ron Washington
9. Bo Porter
10. Ned Yost
11. Mike Scioscia
12. Ron Gardenhire
13. Eric Wedge
14. John Gibbons
15. Robin Ventura

Batting third for the Indians, Ryan Raburn

The Cleveland Indians have won eight games in a row. They are two games back from the Tigers. If the season ended today, they would be the second wild card team. They have the best home record in baseball. And they have Ryan Raburn batting third last night against Chris Sale. Ryan Raburn batting third!?

This is the same Ryan Raburn the Tigers ditched after a disastrous .480 OPS last season, right? How can he be batting third when the third spot in the order is reserved for the team's best hitter? That is probably because, as of right now, Ryan Raburn is the Indians' best hitter. How the heck did that happen?

Raburn has never been a starting player for an entire season. He peaked at 121 games for the Tigers in 2011. And he has not been a regular starter for the Indians either. He has played in only 62 of the Indians' 108 games. Drew Stubbs started the season as the Indians' right fielder. And Stubbs has played more games than Raburn.

But Stubbs strikes out almost 30% of the time and his power does not warrant such a high strikeout total. Seeing this, Terry Francona has given Raburn more and more starts in right field in the last month or so. But still, Raburn is not out there every day. Both he and Stubbs bat from the right side, so this is not a platoon situation. And Raburn has an OPS over .900 against right-handed pitchers this season.

Perhaps Francona feels that Raburn is better in small doses. Judging from the results, it is hard to argue with him. After his two homers last night, Raburn now has an OPS of .961 with an impressive .377 on-base percentage and an even more impressive .584 slugging percentage.

So where did this Raburn come from? He has shown flashes of this kind of hitting in the past. He had an .847 OPS in 2007 and an .891 OPS for that same team in 2009. But then there have been some clunker years too. He had a .666 OPS in 2008 and then, of course, last year was a disaster.

Can we get a clue to what is going right for Raburn? It is difficult. A lot of his peripherals look the same as last year. His strike rate is actually a bit higher at 24.1%, but his walk rate of 11.6% is way above his 7.1% career average. He showed that kind of walk rate in the minors, but that was a long time ago. Corresponding to his walk rate, his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone is currently the lowest of his career.

So, it may be said that he is being much more selective at the plate and is hammering pitches he can handle. His home run to fly ball rate is easily the highest of his career at 26.5%. Perhaps he is benefiting a lot from his fly balls being hit outside of that big ballpark in Detroit.

But other than the home run rate and the walk rate, the rest of his numbers look familiar. He has always been ground ball / fly ball neutral and that still holds. His line drive rate is still similar to his norms. His BABIP is only a little out of line at .321, but that jumped after last night's three for four performance. It was at .302 before the game started.

So, yeah, perhaps this is an outlier for Raburn this season. But these things happen and you ride it if you are Terry Francona. Raburn has a tidy little 1.310 in the second half thus far and had a 1.034 OPS in July. And of course, his August has started with a bang. Perhaps Francona should ride this hot hitter even harder until it falters.

Baseball is funny and it is hard to explain when a player like Ryan Raburn comes out of the blue to rake like he is. But there is no sense in trying to explain it. The best thing is to put him out there every day and ride it for all it is worth. It has been a charming season thus far in Cleveland and Raburn has been the biggest charm of all.

Justin Masterson - gold or pyrite?

Every year in the Major Leagues, some players jump out in the early part of the season and astound us in small sample size wonder. This year, John Buck and Chris Davis have been pretty astounding. And yet, when a position player jumps way out ahead of his normal stats, we expect regression. Pitchers sometimes get more of a pass. But what about the case of Justin Masterson, the pitcher for the Cleveland Indians who has started the young season at 3-0 with an 0.41 ERA. Is Masterson setting a new gold standard for his career or his this pyrite or fools gold?

Where a score of 50 is average, Masterson has already garnered Game Scores of 63, 78 and 83. He gave up a run in the third inning of his first start of the season and has now thrown nineteen straight scoreless innings. He seems to be getting stronger as those Game Scores indicate. So what is going on here? Is not this the same pitcher that went 11-15 with an ERA of 4.93?

Let's look at some numbers to see if this is basically a short sample size fluke or if it shows Masterson doing something different or more effectively.

On the gold side:

Masterson has always been a ground ball pitcher. His career ground ball percentage is 56.1% and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is at 2.11 for his career. He has upped the ante on the ground balls this season and currently sits at a ground ball percentage of 60% and a ground ball to fly ball ratio of 2.31. As such, his sinker is getting the job done on batted balls.

At the same time, Justin Masterson is adding (to this point) more sliders to his game plan. In the last three seasons, Masterson has thrown his slider 19.9%, 14.3% and 19.5% respectively. This year, he has thrown it 26% of the time and the pitch has been great for him. His game charts show that he has always had good movement on the pitch, but that movement is even wider horizontally than in the past. After PITCHf/x rated his slider at only 1.7 runs above average for the entire season last year, that services has already attached five runs above average for a score on the slider already. And just for historical perspective, that pitch was rated at 6.5 in 2011 and 4.4 runs above average the year before that.

One aspect that may be related to the slider is that not only is Masterson inducing a lot of ground balls, but his popup to the infield rate is way up so far this season.

A better defense around him. Last season, the Indians finished 24th in team fielding efficiency for the season. This season (which is young yet), the team is rated fifth. All his fielders except for Cabrera at short are having in the positive fielding seasons. Again, it is early yet. Let's see if the Indians can maintain that.

Some other things on the positive side include no homers allowed, which really is not a fluke since Masterson has always been stingy in the home run department. Also, his strikeout rate is up slightly despite not increasing the amount of swing and miss percentage or swinging outside the strike zone percentage.

He is also pitching at a faster pace this season. After averaging in the 18+ range in seconds per pitch (which is great), he is in the 16+ range this season. I am personally a big fan of a fast pace for a pitcher.

What the numbers seem to show is that Masterson has his highest first pitch strike percentage of his career, has a slider that has been killer and is inducing even more ground balls than usual. Ground balls and infield fly balls do wonders for balls in play finding an out somewhere.

On the pyrite side:

No matter how good Masterson's pitches, first pitch strikes, etc., have been, there is no way he is going to go through the season with a .196 BABIP that he has right now. Somewhere around .260 is doable in a great season, but .196 is just screaming for regression.

Also screaming for regression is Masterson's strand rate. Granted, Masterson's WHIP is outstanding at 0.818 so there are less runners to strand. But a strand rate of 94.7% is not going to hold up no matter how good he pitches.

Competition. Of the three teams Masterson has beaten, two of them (Blue Jays, Rays) are in the bottom five in runs per game. The White Sox were in the top ten, so he did beat a good offensive team (thus far) in this last outing. Let's see what happens when he faces some tougher offensive teams.

Basic conclusions:

One thing that has to be remembered here is that Justin Masterson's FIP was -.78 compared to his ERA in 2012, a very big difference. He pitched in front of a weaker defense and had a bit of an off year with his slider. His batted balls already lend itself to low BABIPs but expect his to rise as the year progresses. Justin Masterson will not be this great all season. But there is no reason why he cannot be of All Star caliber and build on this start for a terrific season.

Nick Swisher - Ready to rock Cleveland

Nick Swisher is ready to rock Cleveland. After four quietly terrific seasons in New York, Swisher is now taking his laughter and baseball delight to a dugout where he will be teamed up with old Yankee nemesis, Terry Francona. Swisher reminds me of cats--you either love him or hate him. The word, "douche" seems to come up a lot on Twitter from baseball fans and writers who have not had Swisher play on their teams. But for those who have, Swisher is a great big old fun machine. And he is going to have fun in Cleveland.

Frankly, I have never understood the hatred of Nick Swisher. I can probably understand if you are a White Sox fan simply because Swisher did not perform well there and did not fit in with their fiery manager at the time. And it is one thing to dislike him in Chicago for his performance in his one season there and perhaps even in New York for his post season letdowns. But how can you not like that guy as a baseball playing human being?

Nick Swisher plays like he has the best job in the world. And, gosh, he does have the best job in the world. Instead of acting like he is suffering because of his fame, Swisher embraces it and the fans and puts smiles on people's faces. He also did a pile of charity work in New York during his years there thus showing that he appreciates what he has been given and has given back.

What is really different between the way Swisher enjoys the game and say, Jose Reyes? Is it because Reyes has a toothier smile? Baseball is a game and it should be fun and I do not understand anyone for being hated for enjoying the ride. He gets excited when his team does well. Shouldn't he? Is that showboating or a good team guy? He points to the sky when he doubles or homers. Is that a showboat or someone who has made a point of honoring those who came before him?

Hate on Nick Swisher if you will, but from this seat, the guy is what baseball is all about.

With all that said, what kind of player is Nick Swisher going to be in Cleveland and away from the bright lights of the Bronx? I can't see him being much different than he has been in the last four years. His WAR might take a one win hit because of playing first base more than right field this season. But he has been very consistent offensively. His wOBA has been over .360 for five out of this last six seasons.

Nick Swisher is what you dream about when it comes to patience at the plate. His O-swing level has risen slightly in the last three seasons, but is still well below league average and his total swing percentage of 36.7% is very low and has been consistent throughout his career. Both of his last two seasons have also seen a rise in his line drive percentage, though that is a volatile statistic that is hard to predict.

And yet, his projections all predict his wOBA will be under .360 with only the Fans being close at .359. Heck, ZiPS has him finishing at .337. That is simply too pessimistic for what Swisher has done in his career. ZiPS also assigns him a .175 ISO for 2013. Swisher has never been below .188 in that department...ever. So why is his power going to dry up? Because he is playing in Cleveland? And Cleveland is a tougher park than Yankee Stadium?

Well, it is. But Swisher's ISO has remained consistent throughout his career and that included years in Oakland which makes Cleveland look like the Great American Ballpark.

Here's what I predict. Nick Swisher is older and wiser. He does have his hot and cold streaks, but his patience at the plate is streak proof. He will have freedom to be himself with Terry Francona in the clubhouse. He is going to have a blast. He is going to hit 25 to 30 homers, drive in from 85 to 95 runs and have an on-base percentage over .360. His wOBA and ISO will be at career levels or higher. Again, if he plays first base because of the positional difference between right field and first, he will lose anywhere from a half a win to a win in WAR. But otherwise, he'll be Nick Swisher.

Indians fans are really going to enjoy Nick Swisher. He was loved in New York (at least until the post season) and he was loved for a reason. The guy simply puts a smile on your face if he plays for your team and not only that, he produces year after year. Have fun, Cleveland and enjoy the Nick Swisher Experience.

Nick Swisher's Yankee obituary

In case you are interested, yours truly wrote Nick Swisher's Yankee obituary over at It's About the Money, Stupid this morning. This is truly an odd and troubling Yankee off season.

Queasy about Cleveland's pitching

The Cleveland Indians made a nice early run in 2011. After flying out of the gate with an 18-8 record in April, the team sat on a 32-20 record by the end of May. The team was in first place until June 10 and stayed among the division leaders and even grabbed it by a game as late as July 22. Their big play at the trade deadline for Ubaldo Jimenez did not pan out as they hoped and the team played sub-.500 baseball from June through the end of the season. The Tigers zoomed past them and never looked back. Given Ubaldo's track record, you could perhaps think that his 2011 season was a blip. But a poor spring and rumors of his attitude and diminished radar gun readings make you wonder. And he isn't the only pitcher suspect this spring. Of course, spring baseball doesn't count and we can't read too much into it. Plus, the team plays its spring games in Arizona where the balls fly without much hindrance. How much concern should there be?

The Indians' best pitcher this spring has been newcomer, Derek Lowe. Lowe is trying himself to overcome one of his worst seasons ever last season with the Braves. So his spring success is encouraging. But every other projected starter has struggled this spring. Well, check that. Jeanmar Gomez has had a terrific spring. But is he really their fifth starter? Perhaps. Gomez has only started once this spring in his four appearances while guys like Josh Tomlin, Kevin Slowey, Jimenez and David Huff have started four or five games each. Lowe has had success in his career and Jimenez is still considered a great arm. But do the rest of those rotation options give us any kind of optimism. Not really.

After looking at the Baseball Prospectus depth chart for the team, the projections are not appetizing. Justin Masterson should be better than the 3.99 ERA BP projects for him and better than the 1.7 WARP that sight predicts. Take the upside there. But BP's projection for Ubaldo Jimenez comes in with an ERA of 3.47 and a WARP of 2.8. Judging on the last year, you'd have to take those numbers with a grain of salt. The Indians would be thrilled with that Ubaldo. Don't count on them.

Derek Lowe is projected poorly, most likely based on last season and moving from the National League to the American League. His projection of a 4.62 ERA and a measly 0.2 WARP are very pessimistic. Lowe should have a decent season left in him and beat those numbers.

Josh Tomlin is projected for a 4.17 ERA with a WARP of 1.1. The former seems optimistic and the latter perhaps a bit pessimistic. His sinker is a good one but it all depends on his balls in play. The expectation here is an ERA closer to the 4.50 mark. He'll have his fair share of good outings though. 

BP's projections for Jeanmar Gomez and David Huff are gruesome to look at. Both are projected with negative WARPs. It's hard to argue with either projection. BP rates Kevin Slowey higher, but that's hard to justify after seeing what happened to him last season.

What we are seeing here is an experiment. The Indians are going almost entirely with extreme ground ball pitchers. Such pitchers can get "hot" depending on where their ground balls are hit. But this rotation's success will likely revolve around the type of season Ubaldo Jimenez has. If the 2010 version shows up, then some of the other weaker links are less exposed. But if the 2011 version is what they get, then this rotation blows up.

Baseball Prospectus predicts the Indians will win 80 games just like last season. But this rotation leaves much of a feeling of queasiness. If Lowe bounces back and Masterson continues to grow and Jimenez can get his stuff together, this team could win 85 games pretty easily. But if two of the three of those scenarios do not develop, this team could struggle to win 75 games in 2012.

Justin Masterson - The One That Got Away

The date was July 31, 2009 and it was the last day of that season's trade deadline. The Boston Red Sox needed a boost to help that season's playoff chances. And so on that deadline day, the Red Sox pulled the trigger on a deal with the Cleveland Indians for Victor Martinez. In return, the Red Sox sent Justin Masterson, Bryan Price and Nick Hagadone. Martinez performed admirably for the Red Sox and they did indeed make the playoffs but were swept in the first round by the Angels. Martinez had another good season for the Red Sox in 2010 but the Red Sox failed to make the playoffs. The Red Sox had little to show for their year and a half rental of Martinez and perhaps have given up one of the rising stars in the American League.

Justin Masterson had a much better 2011 season as the anchor in the Indians' rotation than most people realize. He finished with a 12-10 record for his 33 starts which is yet another reason why a pitcher's win-loss record is meaningless. According to Fangraphs' valuation methods, Masterson was tied for being the sixteenth most valuable pitcher last season. The guys he was tied with? Cole Hamels, James Shields and Daniel Hudson. That's pretty good company. Just think if Masterson had been in the Red Sox rotation last September when they sank faster than a leaky rowboat!

And the good news is that Masterson is only going to be 27 in 2012. He showed all the signs that he is going to be a star for the Cleveland Indians for years to come. Perhaps getting to learn on the job with the Indians over the past three seasons has allowed Masterson to reach his full potential. Seriously out of contention in 2009 and 2010 allowed the Indians to have patience with Masterson to give him room to grow. Those first two seasons weren't pretty as Masterson went 7-20 with a WHIP over 1.5. And the patience paid off beginning with the second half of the 2010 season. Despite his final record in 2010, Masterson cut his walks down in the second half of that season and he carried that even further into the 2011 season. His 2.7 walks per nine innings in 2011 along with an improved 2.43 strikeout to walk ratio were easily the best of his career.

But the good news doesn't stop there. Statistics show that Masterson's change up became a much better pitch in 2011 and now all three of his pitches are in the plus category. He only allowed eleven homers all season for a sparkling 0.5 homers per nine innings, again, the best of his career. Batters had a total OPS against him of .667 with a slugging percentage of .349. No matter how you judge pitching, he was terrific. If you like holding on to ERA, that was 3.21. If you prefer FIP, that was 3.28. xFIP? 3.64. SIERA? 3.68. tERA? 3.53. ERA+? 128. It's all good across the board.

Going deeper into Masterson's numbers, you have to love the way he gets batters to hit ground balls. His ground ball percentage of 55.1 percent in 2011 was just below his career average and for his career, he induces two ground balls for every fly ball he allows. Showing that Masterson is hard to square up, his lifetime line drive percentage sits at only 16.7 percent for his career. And he also increased the number of infield pop ups in 2011 pretty significantly (9.1 percent compared to a career rate of 6.4). Perhaps the real key to his success was that Masterson increased the contact rate on pitches out of the strike zone. His 70.7 percent contact rate on those pitches was up almost eight percentage points of his previous best season.

After all is said and done, so far all three projections for Justin Masterson for 2012 show a regression of his 2011 numbers. That's hard to understand. Perhaps that is a reflection of a ground ball pitcher pitching in front of a notoriously bad infield. Asdrubal Cabrera rated as the worst fielding (qualifying) shortstop last season. Jason Kipnis at second, came in with a -5.6 fielding runs. If Carlos Santana continues to play first as often as he catches, that won't help either. At least Lonnie Chisenhall over at third base seemed above average with his fielding stats last season.

Even so, it's this writer's opinion that Justin Masterson will not regress and that he'll continue to improve and will be one of the best pitchers in the American League in 2012. He shows all the signs of an emerging star and if this writer is correct, then he will continue to be the pitcher that got away for the Red Sox. And now that the same Victor Martinez is lost for the season for the rival Tigers, Masterson will have a lot to say about whether the Indians can compete in the AL Central this coming season. Oh, and by the way, Nick Hagadone has great stuff as a lefty reliever and might also be a big key for the Indians. It should be fun to watch.

Graig Nettles Worthy of HOF Consideration.

The Web is flowing with Hall of Fame posts. Ron Santo was just elected by the veteran's committee, which is a great thing. But that body also left out a couple of deserving candidates. Bill over at The Platoon Advantage bounced off of a Rob Neyer piece and asked who the next Ron Santo should be. The great Bob Netherton of On the Outside Corner made an excellent case for Ken Boyer. Graham Womack is doing some nice things with his collection of the best players not in the Hall of Fame. This Fan hates to be left out and has his own candidate: Graig Nettles.

Yes, the Yankees are over-represented in the Hall of Fame. But Nettles also played the early part of his career with the Indians and a few good seasons with the San Diego Padres before he hung up his spikes. But if you look at Nettles as an offensive player, you might be sorely disappointed by his traditional numbers. His career slash line of .248/.329/.421 will not exactly make you giddy with excitement. But there are two things you have to put into context. First, you have to compare him with other third basemen in history and secondly, you have to consider the offensive landscape of the time he played.

Let's deal with the latter first. It's hard to judge a player like Nettles from the perspective of today's offensive game. Yes, the last couple of years have gone down offensively, but we are just coming out of an era of unprecedented offense. So Nettles numbers look rather tame. But for his time, Nettles' numbers were well above average. He finished his career with a 110 career OPS+. And that number would have been better if perhaps Nettles hadn't hung around three years too long. Nettles was a six-time All Star and had two seasons where he finished fifth and sixth in MVP voting. As a power hitter, he struck out only 73 times a season on average and walked 65 times. His slash line, therefore, is deceiving.

If you rate Nettles along with other third basemen in history, you get another great picture. To qualify for this writer's list, you had to play 80 percent of your games for your career at third base. Of all such players, Nettles is third in career homers behind only Mike Schmidt and Eddie Matthews. He is sixth all time at his position in RBIs. He is ninth in hits and seventh in walks. Add all this up and you have a largely positive offensive player who was also excellent on defense.

Baseball-reference.com ranks Nettles as the sixth best fielding third baseman ever. Fangraphs has him seventh. If you look at WAR, Fangraphs has him ninth all time for his position and B-R, seventh. Surely, one of the top ten third basemen of all time deserves consideration.

Shelly Duncan - Starter?

A story over at MLB.com caught this writer's eye today. That happens every once in a while when certain headlines are read quickly and the headline reads, "Duncan prepared to be more than a role player." So the Fan went ahead and clicked the link with a scoff waiting to form at the back of the throat. Seriously!? Shelly Duncan? Duncan, of course, is the son of Dave Duncan, Einstein pitching coach with the World Champion, St. Louis Cardinals. Shelly's real first name is David too, but "Shelly" avoids the confusion. The MLB.com story certainly paints a rosy picture for Duncan in his .293 heroics in the last 43 games of the 2011 season. But the reality continues to be that Duncan has been pegged as a role player for so long that it's hard to imagine anything else for him. He is 32 years old after all.

Who knows if Shelly Duncan could have been a star. He was drafted eleven years ago by the Yankees in the second round. Before Brian Cashman got his way and started banking on home gown talent again, the Yankee reality from 2001 until the latter part of that decade was that young players were trade bait. The Yankees would fill their major league roster with older, more established players. Therefore, you got the endless parade of Ruben Sierra/Gary Sheffield types to play with over-padded paychecks while guys like Shelly Duncan were never realistically going to get a chance.

And so Shelly Duncan became lost in that endless shuffle as a 4A player who never got traded in those big deals. He had his first cup of coffee for the Yankees in 2007 and made quite a scene in 83 plate appearances. He belted seven homers good for an .883 OPS. But Spring Training came around again in 2008 and Duncan didn't fit. Subsequent cups of coffee in 2008 and 2009 produced diminishing returns. After eight years in the Yankees' system, he was going nowhere and was finally a free agent after the 2009 season. He signed with the Cleveland Indians.

Duncan saw his most amount of playing time with the Indians in 2010 getting into 85 games covering 259 plate appearances. His .736 OPS was hardly inspiring, nor was his 29.3 percent strikeout rate. But his wOBA wasn't bad at .324 and surprisingly for such a big guy, his defensive metrics weren't bad. In 2011, he again split time between Triple A and the majors but after the first half, his OPS stood at .674. He probably would have sunk into oblivion if the Indians hadn't had an outfield that couldn't stay out of the trainer's room. All the outfielders got hurt and somebody had to play out there. Duncan was given the call and had the second half mentioned earlier.

So what does it all mean? Choo will be back and Brantley will be back. So will Shelly Duncan get any kind of shot to get significant playing time? And should he? After parts of five seasons, Duncan has about a season's worth of plate appearances at 669. Judged by his slash line of .239/.313/.441, it hardly inspires much. But in those season worth of appearances, he has hit 30 homers and 31 doubles and has driven in 105 runs. So maybe...maybe what? If you clicked over to that link that started this piece, you get the words of Jim Thome who calls Duncan, "a monster." Thome has been around long enough to inspire a listen. Plus, Thome himself carved out a lot of serious WAR well into the late stages of his career.

Is there anybody like Duncan out there we can look at? Well there's Michael Morse, who was drafted a year after Duncan and who was similarly passed over a number of years before his breakout season last year. But Morse is two years younger on one hand and a much worse fielder than Duncan on the other. Is Morse a good comp? Could a full time Duncan put together a 4 WAR season?

Such a season might not be beyond the levels of reason. Brantley can play center, Choo in right and Shelly Duncan can play left. Such an outfield isn't horrible defensively and could be quite good offensively. We all know that Sizemore isn't in the mix anymore, so why not? There are few other options the Indians have without dipping into trade and free agent waters.

It's certainly a possibility that Duncan could get a shot full time and there is just as much a possibility that he can succeed. It just sounds awfully weird doesn't it? You have to root for a guy like Duncan. He's played 976 minor league games including 355 in Triple A. His Triple A OPS is .883. If he can put together an .850 OPS and hit thirty homers, would you take that for league minimum pay? This writer would. It's just the skeptics in us that find the notion unreasonable.

One Rank of Contenders' Starting Pitching

Cherry picking statistics is hazardous to your health (and reputation). But this writer wanted a quick and dirty overview of how contending teams have stacked up according to their starting pitching. One stat consulted is Game Score or Average Game Score. Developed by Bill James, the formula goes like this:

1. Start with 50 points.
2. Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3. Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4. Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

Again, lots of different statistics should be looked at before making judgments. But the Average Game Score is a good place to start for a quick look at starting pitching. Here's how the current contenders rank in the Average Game Score of its starters:

If you have trouble seeing the list, just click on it to make it bigger. Some conclusions based on the list:

• There is no surprise in the two leaders. The Phillies and Angels' have had great starting pitching. The Angels' rotation is the only thing keeping them in the race.
• That said, the Rangers' score is surprising. Their staff seems uneven at times, but overall, it's been a good rotation.
• The Indians rate the lowest here, but eliminating their weakest link and replacing him in the rotation with Ubaldo Jimenez was a great move. 
• The Red Sox scored surprisingly well considering their injuries. And Erik Bedard should be more help than hindrance.
• The Yankees rotation was supposed to be crap when the season started, but they have held their own. Tweaks must be made though as they sort through whether Burnett or Hughes should get the bulk of the starts and whether they can come to grips with Ivan Nova being as successful as he's been.
• The Braves have to worry about Tommy Hanson's health but they've been strong all year.
• The White Sox hang in a lot of games because of their pitching. Peavy has been a help.
• There is a lot of worry about the Tigers' rotation in this corner. Furbush was a nice pick up along with Doug Fister but inconsistency from Porcello and Scherzer are disconcerting.
• The Brewers' rotation has been a strength as can be seen easily from the list.

That's a quick view from here. Nothing profound. Just a peek and what we have to look forward to down the stretch.

The Indians' Fast Start

Manny Acta was never a favorite here in the FanDome, but you have to give the man some credit for the Indians' fast start. Not only do they sit on top of the AL Central, but their 7-2 record isn't a fluke. They are +15 in runs scored versus runs allowed and are winning with the long ball and with small ball (as their suicide squeeze bunt win the other day showed). Let's take a closer look at this team to see what's under the hood.

Offensively, the Indians are hitting the ball really well so far despite their best player, Shin-Soo Choo, off to a slow start. To be sure 36 year old, Orlando Cabrera is not going to hit .375. He is a career .274 batter with occasional pop and is playing second base, a move in response to his age. But by all mean, he seems to be a positive influence on shortstop, Asdrubal Cabrera. The younger Cabrera is off to a great start, but it's not a start out of line with his career. He's a .285 career hitter and him hitting .312 doesn't seem a stretch for a 26 year old hitting his stride. The three homers is a surprise. His lack of plate discipline is the only thing that brings up warning bells. He's struck out 10 times in 38 at bats and has only walked twice.

Travis Hafner isn't going to hit .370. But perhaps his shoulder is stronger than it has been in the last few years and he could return at least part ways back to the kind of killer he was five years ago. He used to be one of the most feared hitters in baseball and it's certainly possible for him to have an excellent year. It is impressive that he's only struck out five times against three walks. He's hit two homers so far. Is 30 out of the question? Not really.

Third baseman, Jack Hannahan, is hitting solidly at .286 with an OPS of .891. It's hard to quantify what Hannahan can do since he is 31 years old and getting the first solid playing time of his career. His nine years in the minors show a guy who should give you a .781 OPS with only occasional power, a decent eye and a few too many strikeouts. He'll come to earth a bit, and won't provide the kind of power at third that most teams like, but he seems solid enough.

Michael Brantley is only going to be 24 in May. He's been another nice surprise as he is hitting .303 with a .368 on base percentage. Those numbers are right in line with his minor league numbers, so it's not a stretch that Brantley can put up those kinds of numbers. He doesn't have any power, but he has good speed and he should be fine at the top of the order.

Carlos Santana isn't off to a blazing start, but the young catcher is going to hit. His current slash line of .268/.316/.353 isn't very impressive and he only has one extra base hit. But give him 500 plate appearances and he'll be fine. The same can't be said with any kind of optimism for Matt LaPorta. LaPorta's .231 average is right in line with his career line of .232 and his on base percentage is down. Maybe this is just who he is and is not, at 25, going to be the star the Indians hoped he would be.

One thing you can be sure of and that is Shin-Soo Choo will hit. His track record has been one of the better kept secrets in the majors. He isn't hitting yet, but he will.

There will be some regression in the Indians' current offensive production. That would be offset some when Choo and Santana get going. Sizemore will be back at some point but you have to wonder how he will do. The team is a little thin behind the starters. Austin Kearns offers nothing, but Lou Marson, Shelly Duncan and Adam Everett are decent spot players.

The nice thing about all of these offensive players is that they are good defensively (even Kearns is adequate). They have made only four errors all season and all of their starters are in the positive numbers for zone ratings. And so we've determined that the offense and defense can keep the Indians competitive. How about the pitching?

Of course, a lot of the Indians' season success will depend on the starting rotation. They have two very good members on the top with Fausto Carmona and Justin Masterson. Carmona was lit up his first start, but was really, really good his second time around. Masterson is 2-0 and really seems to have figured out how to be a successful starter. The Fan likes those two on top. The next three offer problems.

Josh Tomlin is 2-0 after his first two starts with an ERA of 2.68. But this Fan doesn't buy it. He's struck out seven batters against six walks. It's possible for him to be a league average pitcher and that would be fine if the top two do their jobs. But he isn't as good as he is showing early on.

Mitch Talbot has to find a way to keep his pitch count down. He seems afraid to attack the strike zone and the other day threw 102 pitches in four and a third innings. He has an excellent strikeout rate, but he needs to throw more strikes. Can he do it? Possibly, but we'll see. He certainly has a better chance at doing well than Carlos Carrasco, who seems destined to be a pitcher who finishes with an ERA in the mid-five range.

The Indians need three quality starts in every five appearances, and that is certainly possible with this rotation. Whether that will happen or not really will determine how far this Indians team can go in 2011.

The bullpen has been quite good. Chris Perez is a quality closer and hasn't given up a run yet in 2011. Tony Sipp hasn't given up a walk or a run in five innings of work. Rafael Perez walks too many batters, but so far has walked that tight rope and hasn't given up any runs. If you have those three at the end of the game, you're in pretty good shape. Chad Durbin has yet to show his usual form and could be a nice addition once he gets going. The bullpen has no depth beyond that, so again, the starters have to deliver the game to the back end of the bullpen for this to work all season long.

The Indians are currently third in the league in scoring and third in preventing runs. That combination has led to their 7-2 record. They really are improved from the horror of last year and it is conceivable for this team to win 85 games. It isn't conceivable at this point for them to stay as good as they are now, but it would be a fun story, would it not? The White Sox look like the team this year, but the Indians could surprise a lot of people.

The Greatest Fielding Season Ever By A Shortstop?

Fielding metrics are still looked at by the lay analyst with a heavy dose of skepticism. There are different systems and they don't agree. In many cases, they seem to contradict the naked eye. For example, during a cursory look at last year's fielding stats in both Fangraphs and Baseball-reference.com, Pat Burrell received positive fielding metrics for his play in left field for the Giants. Hasn't it been a long-standing thing that Burrell is NOT a good left fielder? So how at his age did he suddenly have such a good year? There is hope and new metrics are on the horizon. So take with a HUGE grain of salt the entire subject of this post. And what's the subject? Adam Everett and his fielding season in 2006, which according to Baseball-references.com was the best fielding season for a shortstop...EVER.

Adam Everett? That's what the site says. What this Fan did was use the play index search to find all seasons by a shortstop (defined as playing 90 percent of his games at short) with at least 20 fielding runs above average since 1901. The search was sorted by the total of fielding runs for that season. Seventy-nine shortstops have had a season with at least 20 runs above average while playing most of their games at shortstop. There sitting on top of the list was Adam Everett, the Houston Astros' shortstop in the 2006 season. His score was 40. That gave him a fWAR for that season of 4.

According to B-R, there have been six players that have had seasons of 30 or more runs above average. They are: Everett; Mark Belanger (1975 - Orioles) with 35; Terry Turner (1906 - Indians) with 34; Rey Ordonez (1999 - Mets) with 33; Ozzie Smith (1989 - Cardinals) with 32 and Art Fletcher (1917 - Giants) with 30. Please don't ask this fan how you can rate guys from 1906 and 1917, The answer would be a "Don't Know."

Belanger and Smith are, of course, considered two of the best fielding shortstops of all time. Belanger is the career leader on B-R for fielding runs and accounts for seven of those 79 seasons we talked about. Ozzie Smith made the list three times. Rey Ordonez is forgotten by except by Mets fans. For a while there, at the turn of the century. Ordonez had some of the best fielding seasons in baseball history. He had multiple seasons over 20. Other guys with multiple seasons over 20 include Cal Ripken, Jr., Eddie Brinkman, Rey Sanchez, Phil Rizzuto, Greg Gagne, Joe Tinker, Ozzie Guillen and Travis Jackson.

But not Adam Everett. It was the only season he appears on the list. In fact, his highest seasons other than that 40 monster were seasons of 11 and 10 the two seasons before his monster season. He was the starting shortstop in 2006, but he also played more games in 2005. Those were the only two seasons where he really played almost all of his team's games. Everett's problem in part is that he has always been a terrible offensive player. Everett has a career OPS+ of 66. Mark Belanger had a career OPS+ of 68 but he started eleven seasons for the Orioles. Everett has been a starter in two seasons. As we speak, he is trying to win a job with the Cleveland Indians.

So what made Everett's season so special? Well, he only made seven errors in 688 chances which is pretty remarkable. He participated in 105 double plays, which tied Belanger's best season in that category. Everett had 479 assists that season, by far the most of his career. But Belanger had four straight seasons with more than 500 assists.

But other than those cut and dried stats, this Fan couldn't tell you why Everett got a score that was better than any other shortstop in any season in history. Of course he didn't win the Gold Glove that season. But there it is. According to what this Fan thinks he's looking at, Adam Everett's 2006 season was tops of all time.

It Is Time, Cleveland

ESPN.com featured a story by Jerry Crasnick on the current state of the Cleveland Indians. While Crasnick's article did list some reason for optimism, the overall feel of the piece was that the team has lost a bit of the market there in Cleveland. Attendance was down again and was near the bottom of the American League pile last year as the team had its second 90+ loss season in a row. While the loss total may be part of the attendance issue and the economy the rest of it, it's time for the team to enter a brand new day. How can they do that? Change the team's name.

It's time. The whole "Indians" thing along with the Chief Wahoo logo is insulting on several levels. Several will say that the argument for keeping the name is continuity. This Fan would agree with that for just about every team except this one. The problem with the team name is that it is not politically correct and it hurts a portion of our society. Seriously, what if the team's name was the Italians and the logo was a Don WOPPO? Wouldn't that be insulting? Because of this misfortune, loyal fans who want to hang on to their loyalty are forced to be defensive. And all of that put together makes the "Indians" impossible to sell and market correctly.

Bob Feller is dead and can't get mad at anyone. A portion of the city will be upset by the change. But, there can be a major marketing and PR event to rename the team and have contests for the name and logo. This is sure to drum up interest and put the team in the news at a time when fiscal sanity is forcing the team to lie low in acquiring talent. There are lots of creative ways to turn this brand around and make it alive again.

This is a moribund team in a highly depressed area struggling to keep a muddy brand alive and viable. That isn't ever going to happen with that team name. Sure, it's easy for this outsider to push these ideas. The Fan hasn't spent his life living and dying with the Indians. That's a fair point. But the Fan is a realist and the marketing and image aspects of teams are of interest to this observer. More than one post has been devoted here to improving team images and branding. It's important.

In this day and age, all media has to be put in play to sell anything. In order to do that, a clean brand needs to be presented that everyone can rally around. The "Indians" no longer cuts it and its mascot and logo is not marketable or even humane. Sure, this Fan rebels against our PC world too. But sometimes, right is simply right. And removing this stench from Cleveland is the right thing to do. It's time, Cleveland. In fact, it's long overdue.

Tenacious Like Bull - Bob Feller

Have you seen that great commercial with some guy with a Russian accent manning a one-man call center? A guy looking for customer service says he's been waiting for twenty minutes. "Peggy," the guy with the accent, says, "You are tenacious like bull. I like." It's hysterical. But for some reason, when this writer found out that Bob Feller has passed away, that was the first thing that came to mind. Bob Feller was tenacious like bull.

And it wasn't just Feller's baseball career that was tenacious. He was a tenacious fighter in WWII. He was a tenacious self-promoter on barnstorming tours with Satchel Paige and All Stars of both all colors. Feller was tenacious with selling his image with books and autograph signings all over the country. He was also tenacious with his legacy, keeping his career alive for his blazing fastball and legendary triumphs.

There is nothing wrong with those things, of course. Feller was uniquely able to forge an entire lifelong career on Bob Feller. While he was the fastest pitcher on earth, he "raced" his fastball against race horses and sprinters. He made huge amounts of money capitalizing on the drawing power of black players like Satchel Paige, who Feller would pay to barnstorm around the country. Paige made good coin on those exhibitions. His black teammates made less and Feller made tons.

So there is no one way to remember Bob Feller. His tenacity at life built up his legend and capitalized on it. But it was a tenacity that was well earned. His exploits lived up to the hype and self-promotion. He had the goods to back it up. He joined the big leagues at 17 and he was already a legend with giant hands and an even larger right arm. He won 107 games by the time he was 21. And then at the peak of his career, he tossed it aside after hearing that Pearl Harbor had been bombed. Not content with playing baseball for the armed forces and having an easy time of it like many other ball players, Feller wanted in on the thick of it and served as a gunner on a Navy battleship and lost three and a half years to the war. Thankfully he lived through it.

When he returned to the Indians, he was as good or better than ever. His 1946 season was unbelievable. He went 26-15 with an ERA of 2.18 (ERA+ of 151). He pitched in 48 games and accumulated a total of 371,1 innings. Can you imagine!? He struck out 348 batters while only giving up 277 hits, only 11 of them homers. He completed 36 of this games and had ten shutouts. Baseball-reference.com estimates his WAR for that season at 10.1, an almost unthinkable total. Just to put that in a frame of reference, Roy Halladay's season in 2010 came in at a 6.9 WAR.

But the following season, he hurt his knee and lost his fastball. He still won 20 games, but his strikeout total went from 348 to 196 and it would fall every year thereafter. He spent the last eight years of his career recording 4.6 K's per nine or less. But he still had some solid seasons without the big fastball and even won 22 games in 1951 at the age of 32 with only 111 strikeouts for the year. The guy with the biggest fastball on earth learned quickly how to pitch without one.

Feller won 266 games in his career and researchers have estimated that he might have won over 100 more in the time he missed. Plus, he pitched countless innings touring the country on his barnstorm tours. In today's ball game, it's hard to imagine someone throwing that many pitches. He led the league in innings pitched five times. He lead the league in strikeouts seven times.

The Fan would give anything to go back in time to see him pitch. He would have been like Strasburg without the elbow injury. He would have faced Yankee greats from Gehrig to Mantle. He saw it all and his boasts and recollections weren't fables. They weren't because Bob Feller was bigger than life. He was Rapid Robert, the fastest throwing arm of them all. The word, "Legend," is overused. But in Feller, the title seemed too small.