MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: May 12, 2015

Yesterday was a decent day at 6-4. But the Pick of the Day was wrong....again. The Yankees have won four straight this year at Tropicana Field. Has that happened in the last half dozen years? I shouldn't have picked against them. The Nationals are blasting the ball right now and it looks like they are ready to charge to where they were predicted to be before a slow start made people question them. It's a long season.

Tuesday's picks:

• The Cardinals over the Indians: Carlos Carrasco is a tough customer, but so is Lance Lynn. Lynn, despite his 1-3 record, has only had one bad outing and he's dealt with a lot of bad luck. I think the Cardinals win.
• The Pirates over the Phillies: Sean O'Sullivan has been a fringe MLB pitcher for several years now. He's never bad enough to count out and never good enough to stick. A.J. Burnett is a total wild card every time he pitches. The Pirates have put together a little winning streak here and I expect that to continue.
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: I have serious misgivings over both starters in this one. Chris Tillman has not started the season well after a great year last year. Mark Buehrle had a good outing last time out after getting blasted twice in a row. Which big offense takes advantage of a struggling pitcher tonight?
• The Tigers over the Twins: Alfredo Simon has looked good, but I still have a hard time buying it over the long season. Kyle Gibson has to have perfect location to succeed. Both pitchers are capable. The Tigers at home.
• The Reds over the Braves: The Reds are playing really well. But this one is hard to pick with the worst to spell pitching match-up ever. Anthony DeSclafani goes for the Reds against Mike Foltynewicz. Come on, guys, what's with that!?
• The Rays over the Yankees: Chris Archer always pitches the Yankees tough and despite two clunkers in a row in his last two outings, I expect him to do it again tonight. Nathan Eovaldi has not lost a game, but he certainly looks shaky.
• The Royals over the Rangers: I was wrong about this pick yesterday, but I'll keep going with the better team. Nick Martinez hasn't lost a start yet, which is amazing. Edinson Volquez pitching in Texas is a bit frightening. But I'll stick with my pick.
• The Cubs over the Mets: Mets fans will get their first chance to watch Noah Syndergaard, another tough name to spell. The kid makes his MLB debut tonight. I still go with Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta.
• The White Sox over the Brewers: This same pick blew up in my face yesterday. But Chris Sale is a whole different story. The Brewers' offense has come alive, but I'm going with Sale to slow them down. Mike Fiers goes for the Brewers and he has not been good thus far.
• The Astros over the Giants: Collin McHugh is my guy and I have to go with him nearly every time. It has certainly paid off thus far this season. "Charlton" Chris Heston goes for the Giants. Will Heston come out with guns blazing? Sorry, I couldn't resist.
• The Nationals over the Diamondbacks: I am worried about going with the Nats here with Stephen Strasburg on the mound. For one, I am concerned about his health. Secondly, he doesn't pitch well on the road. But I think the Nats will knock Rubby De La Rosa all over the place.
• The Red Sox over the Athletics: The A's have played really poorly thus far in May and the Red Sox are playing better. Much will depend on Justin Masterson. Drew Pomeranz will go for the A's and he has struggled in his last few starts.
• The Marlins over the Dodgers: There are two reasons I'm going this way with this pick. First, Dan Haren has been really good and is home in California to pitch this one. Secondly, the Dodgers are forced to start Mike Bolsinger due to some attrition.
• The Mariners over the Padres: James Paxton has been much better his last two starts but has little to show for it. Ian Kennedy has looked pretty good thus far, but I think the Mariners will get to him.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Angels over the Rockies: I have a hard time ever picking the Rockies on the road. C.J. Wilson has been solid for the Angels. Kyle Kendrick should keep the Rockies in the game.

Yesterday: 6-4, May: 82-68, Season: 246-233, Picks of the Day: 19-17

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: May 6, 2015

Tuesday was not a very good day. Stephen Strasburg finally pitched well, but for only two innings and couldn't get any run support. I shouldn't ever pick against Bartolo Colon and I should never pick FOR Scott Feldman. I would say, "Live and Learn," but I never do.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Nationals over the Marlins: See? I never do live and learn. But I believe that Max Scherzer will get the run support his teammate did not get as the Nationals score four or so against Tom Koehler.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: If they ever play a game in this series after two straight postponements. I'm still sticking with Tyler Matzek over Josh Collmenter like I did two days ago.
• The Rockies over the Diamondbacks: Robbie Ray gets his first start of the year for the D-Backs. I'm not expecting that to go well. I'm not sure how much better Jordan Lyles will be, but that's the pick.
• The Giants over the Padres: Ian Kennedy used to be the Giant killer. But not so much anymore. "Charlton" Chris Heston has had all good starts except the one at Coors and you can throw that out.
• The Pirates over the Reds: If Gerrit Cole keeps pitching like he has been, that should be a win. Mike Leake will leak at least a little.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: The Yankees have made Mark Buehrle's career miserable. That said, he faces CC Sabathia, of who I have no confidence in at this point. This should be interesting.
• The Mets over the Orioles: Jacob deGrom bounced back nicely from his Yankees' fiasco and has a decent overall record in interleague play. I like his chances better than Ubaldo Jimenez, though the latter looks a lot better this year.
• The Braves over the Phillies: The Phillies are REALLY bad this year. The Braves were supposed to be bad but haven't been. Mike Foltynewicz has an impossible name to spell but makes his second start of the season. Jerome Williams goes for the Phillies.
• The Red Sox over the Rays: The Rays don't hit that much, which helps Justin Masterson quite a bit. Alex Colome is a bit of a wild card and I don't know how he will do. He was great his first time out.
• The Indians over the Royals: Yeah, this hasn't been a good pick for me, but I believe (still) in Carlos Carrasco and think he will do just fine. Danny Duffy is so unpredictable. He could be great or not.
• The White Sox over the Tigers: Chris Sale should win. That doesn't mean he will. Alfredo Simon seems like the real deal after I poo-poohed him so much.
• The Dodgers over the Brewers: I should not pick the Dodgers because they are starting Joe Weiland, who has never really made it in the Majors. Wily Peralta is 0-4. That's pretty scary.
• The Athletics over the Twins: Scott Kazmir is my guy and I hate picking against him. Kyle Gibson seems to win his share despite not striking too many people out. In other words, I have no idea here.
• The Rangers over the Astros: I'm not sure about this pick. I don't really trust Colby Lewis. But then again, neither do I trust the Astros' bullpen as starter, Samuel Deduno will be lucky to last five innings.
• The Cubs over the Cardinals: I really love Lance Lynn. But I also love how Jon Lester is getting better each time out. I think Lester corrals the high-flying Cards.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Angels over the Mariners: I feel so much more comfortable with C.J. Wilson than I do with Roenis Elias. And that's the tune I'm singing here.

 Yesterday: 6-8, May: 38-31, Season: 202-196, Picks of the Day: 16-14

MLB Game Picks - Friday: May 1, 2015

Ah, May. Welcome. I love May. My son was born in May. Spring actually hits Maine in May. We usually start playing golf in May. The days are longer in May. And it also means April is gone. By April! Take care! Don't let the door hit you on the way out! April ended up one game under .500. That is awful. Terrible. And the month ended perfectly with a dismal 4-4 record yesterday. Good riddance! Now on to good times!

Friday's picks:

• The Cubs over the Brewers: Jon Lester still hasn't won a game for the Cubs. That doesn't bother me much. I would think it bothers the Cubs fans. He faces Wily Peralta who also hasn't won a game this season. Either one of them will finally win a game, or the relievers will win because...you know...the NL is the thinking person's baseball.
• The Orioles over the Rays: The Orioles are the home team. But they are playing the game in Tampa. That will be weird. And once again, they will be playing without a crowd. That was low, wasn't it? Chris Tillman over Alex Colombe. Will the O's wear their home unis? Will the Rays wear their road unis?
• The Red Sox over the Yankees: The Red Sox always kill CC Sabathia. Unfortunately, that used to be a novelty. Now everyone kills Sabathia. Justin Masterson has been better of late. I'll have to watch the game on NESN, so I hope I get to see Daniel Nahver play.
• The Marlins over the Phillies: Both Florida teams are in the same state today. I bet the Cubs have a bigger attendance than the combined Florida games. Tom Koehler and Jerome Williams square up.
• The Mets over the Nationals: In a great match-up, Max Scherzer faces Matt Harvey. Both pitchers cancel each other out and then the bullpens take over. Advantage: Mets.
• The Reds over the Braves: The Reds win the battle of funny-named pitchers. Anthony DeSclafani goes against Mike Foltynewicz. Oh come on now. How am I going to remember that? It's not like I am Babe Ruth and can call everyone, "Kid."
• The Rangers over the Athletics: Everything tells me that the A's should win this game. That is why I don't trust it. This is my anti-self pick. Colby Lewis and Scott Kazmir are the pitchers.
• The Twins over the White Sox: It is far obvious that I cannot figure these two teams out right now. Heck, if Chris Sale gets pounded by the Twins, what will happen with Jose Quintana? Kyle Gibson goes for the Twins.
• The Royals over the Tigers: Big statement last night by the Royals. They kicked booty. Remember when they could never beat the Tigers? But wait, Chris Young is starting for the Royals. Uh oh. But before I get all panicky and listen to all his naysayers, the guy is 66-52 in his career. He does something right. Kyle Lobstein goes for the Tigers.
• The Mariners over the Astros. Ugh! What do I do with this game? Sam Deduno against Roenis Elias!? Heaven help me.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: The Pirates don't seem to be all that peppy so far I don't know what to make of them. A.J. Burnett doesn't help me figure that out. I guess I'll go with Lance Lynn and the Cards at home.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks. The D-backs are playing some decent ball. And Rubby De La Rosa has been good. The Dodgers have Carlos Frias going for them and he has started one game in the Majors. Seems easy. Seems like a trap. Seeing the trap and leaping over it.
• The Rockies over the Padres: I am not comfortable going with Ian Kennedy just coming off the disabled list. Eddie Butler walks as many people as he strikes out. But he does okay otherwise. Maybe I'm over-thinking this...
• The Giants over the Angels: Charlton Chris Heston got rocked his last time out. But that was in Coors, so we'll give him a pass.  C.J. Wilson goes for the Angels. The Angels lose the DH, but they also lose the game.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Blue Jays over the Indians: I thought Carlos Carrasco was a sure thing and then he got bombed last time. Heck, Chris Sale got bombed last night. Who saw that coming? Anyway, Mark Buehrle continues to bamboozle.

Yesterday: 4-4, April: 164-165, Picks of the Day: 14-11

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: April 9, 2015

Man, I am terrible. My picking season is off to a brutal start. And all I can say is Aaron Freakin' Harang. Sheesh. The Pick of the Day, which tries to pick the most obvious pick to get right, is 0-3. Nice. Well...let's just say that I've started my season like the Chicago White Sox and let's see where it goes from here.

Thursday's picks:

• The Reds over the Pirates: I don't like the odds for either pitcher in this one. A.J. Burnett always seems to be a couple of pitches away from disaster. And Anthony DeSclafani is a fly ball pitcher in the smallest ballpark in the bigs. Hmm...  I like the place the Reds are in right now and the Pirates seem a bit flat. So that's the way I'm going.
• The Nationals over the Mets: What a big time and exciting match-up as Matt Harvey goes against Stephen Strasburg! That should be a lot of fun to watch. My thought is what happens with the bullpens after the studs are out of the game. Advantage: Nats.
• The White Sox over the Royals: My commenter from yesterday gave the tip that I should pick John Danks today as he always pitches well against the Royals. With the way my picking season has started, who am I to argue? Edinson Volquez is easy to pick against anyway.
• The Astros over the Indians: I have no idea how to pick this one. Asher Wojciechowski makes his MLB debut for the Astros. He's a former first round draft pick (Blue Jays) with a so-so MiLB record. Trevor Bauer is said to be throwing much better, but we'll see. Again, I have no idea. I do know that Wojciechowski just took over as the hardest name to spell in baseball. I wonder if he is related to Steve Wojciechowski?
• The Athletics over the Rangers: Kendall Graveman makes his first MLB start after the A's acquired him from the Blue Jays. That fact and Nick Martinez's overall non-excitement level make that match-up a wash. The A's are clearly the better team right now.
• The Padres over the Giants: Picking against the Giants never seems to be a good idea even if this is supposed to be a down season for them. Yesterday's victory is a case in point. Tim Hudson had the first losing season of his career last year and looked a bit toasted, especially near the end of the season. I'm going with Ian Kennedy.
• The Red Sox over the Phillies: It is hard to think about Justin Masterson pitching after hs season a year ago. And it seemed that all I heard during Spring Training is that he wasn't concerned about getting bombed in his spring outings. That all said, the Red Sox bats have been quiet and should win a high scoring game. David Buchanan pitches for the Phillies and will try to prove me wrong.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: CC Sabathia has to keep the ball in the park against the Blue Jays' big bats. And Daniel Norris had a very good spring. I'm going to go with the Yankees at home though and predict that Sabathia surprises people this season.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Tigers over the Twins: The Twins look awful. I thought they would look better. But not so far. I have a fanboy interest in Shane Greene doing well. I would probably pick him anyway over Kyle Gibson.

Yesterday: 7-8, Season: 16-21, Picks of the Day: 0-3

The 2014 Kyle Davies Award

The CYA were just announced the other day and that is the good news side of the coin. But for every Yin there is a Yang. The CYA celebrate the best pitchers of 2014. This award celebrates the worst. Call that negative if you want and it probably is. But, ultimately, baseball is about failure. All baseball players fail. The best batters fail 60% of the time. The best pitchers fail at least 40% of the time. Some fail more spectacularly than others. That's where I come in.

First, why Kyle Davies? Well...just ask a Royals fan next time you find one. I don't want to beat up Mr. Davies because he's probably a great guy and is still toiling in the minors trying to work his way back to MLB. As such, I root for him. But I had to have a symbol of what I am shooting for and Mr. Davies qualifies as such.

My method for compiling this list starts with rWAR. I have a preference for the way baseball-reference.com calculates pitching WAR over the way Fangraphs.com does. This is strictly personal. But I did not want to rely solely on rWAR. But it was a starting point. I did a search for all starting pitchers with 22 or more starts with a negative rWAR. That rWAR was turned into points. If a pitcher finished with an rWAR of -2.3, then he got 23 points. If i was -0.9 rWAR, then it was 9 points.

But then I took the bottom five of the following categories: ERA+, OPS+ against, FIP, IP per start, Quality Start percentage, Game Score Average and walks per strikeout. The worst stat in each garnered five points, the next to last, four points and so on down to one point for fifth worst. Then I simply added up all the points and the guy with the most won the award. I will list the best worst five with the highest point totals.

So here we go:

5. Franklin Morales. It's no fun pitching half of your starts at Coors Field. Morales did not have a Rocky Mountain High. Well...he did if you look at his stats. A 5.37 ERA to go along with a 5.42 FIP will help  you rack up the points. His WHIP over 1.6 wasn't pretty either. In the age of the pitcher, Morales did not get the memo.

3 and 4. Clay Buchholz and Kevin Correia. With all the goop Buchholz puts in his hair and on his arms, it's hard to watch the guy pitch. For Red Sox fans, it was even harder. His peripherals were not all that bad, but man, he went from a stud in 2013 to a really poor 2014. Kevin Correia is a pitcher only the Twins could covet.

2. Justin Masterson: For Indian and Cardinal fans, they know all about Masterson's struggles. When a sinkerball pitcher loses his sink, his pitches get whacked like a bad wrestler. For those looking for an example of a trade deadline deal gone bad, just look at Masterson. Never has a pitcher gotten in a fan base's dander faster than Masterson in St. Louis.

1. Our winner! Edwin Jackson! Theo Epstein will never stop hearing about this signing. Jackson has a .298 winning percentage for his two years with the Cubs with a 5.58 ERA. His ERA topped six in 2014 and his WHIP was over 1.6. He had the lowest ERA+ for all pitchers and his -2.3 rWAR is simply indicative of a guy that did not provide Cubs fans with a whole lot to cheer about (except when the manager came to get him).

So there it is, Edwin Jackson is our 2014 Kyle Davies Award winner. I really expected Ricky Nolasco to be on this list.

We have to have a relief pitcher edition. For this, I went just by rWAR. And your top bottom five are:

5. Rex Brothers: Cool name. But perhaps another victim of Coors.

4. Craig Breslow: A hero from the 2013 season tanked in 2014.

3. Ronald Belisario: The Windy City got windier with the catcalls.

2. Ernesto Frieri: His pitching did not fool anyone in 2014. Lost the closing job twice.

1. Our winner! Jim Johnson: His season was legendarily bad for Johnson. From 101 saves for the 2012 and 2013 Orioles, Johnson finished 2014 with a 1.950 WHIP. That's really, really bad.

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: August 24, 2014

To quote the Beatles, yesterday was a long and winding road that ended up semi-positive at 9-7. I was 5-2 at one point, so the rest of the day did not go so well. And my six-day correct streak on the Game of the Day feature ended with a Rays loss, disputed though it may have been.

Some trends to note: The Pirates are fighting back with with Andrew McCutchen back in the lineup. He makes everyone around him better. The Oakland A's continue to defeat the Angels in their home ballpark stunting the Angels attempts to take over the division. The Red Sox are mired in their worst slump of the season. The Baltimore Orioles are stumbling a bit with Manny Machado out for the season. And Seattle is going to be tough to beat the rest of the season.

Let's keep these trends in mind as we deal with Sunday's picks:

• The White Sox over the Yankees: It seems that the Yankees have fared better against aces in the last month than against mediocre pitchers. But if Chris Sale is on, nobody hits him. If you compare him to Chris Capuano, I don't know how you can pick the Yankees.
• The Indians over the Astros: The Astros have been hanging tough in most of their games. And I worry a bit about Trevor Bauer pitching. Bauer does have a chance at least of pitching better than Brett Oberholtzer.
• The Blue Jays over the Rays: Drew Hutchison is so hard to predict. His one good game in the last four outings was spectacular against the Orioles. But he was hit hard since. He has the stuff to shut down the Rays. Chris Archer ran into a wall his last start. Tired arm, maybe.
• The Braves over the Reds: I should have gone with Mike Leake yesterday. Oh well. I don't have the same qualms about not picking Alfredo Simon who has not been good at all in the last month. Aaron Harang has to pitch well in that small ballpark though.
• The Mariners over the Red Sox: Hisashi Iwakuma has been every bit the ace that Felix Hernandez has been. Allen Webster has been holding his own, but the Red Sox are in a downward spiral these days.
• The Nationals over the Giants: Has Stephen Strasburg at last found some consistency? Perhaps. He is great at home even when inconsistent. So he is the pick over Ryan Vogelsong.
• The Cardinals over the Phillies: I'm not thrilled at picking Justin Masterson. I think that trade was questionable for the Cards. If you have looked at Jerome Williams in his three stops this year, his first start was always good and then he pooched to the point of getting released. He's already had his good start for the Phillies.
• The Tigers over the Twins: The Tigers really need Max Scherzer to be himself today and go deep into the game. The Twins have been beating them up regularly. Kyle Gibson likes to play with my mind.
• The Brewers over the Pirates: Yes, this pick has not gone well the last two days. But gosh, it is Mike Fiers Day in Milwaukee. That has to be the pick over Vance Worley and the Pirates.
• The Cubs over the Orioles: Why not go for the sweep here? The Cubs! Tsuyoshi Wada has not given up more than two runs in his last five starts. If he does so today, the Cubs have a chance with Miguel Gonzalez.
• The Marlins over the Rockies: While I'm not a big proponent of Brad Hand, I cannot trust Christian Bergman either. Coors Field crap shoot once again.
• The Mets over the Dodgers: Putting aside the differences in the Mets and Dodgers' offenses for a second, compare Bartolo Colon and Kevin Correia. Uh, yeah. I'll go with Colon. Colon versus Puig should be entertaining television.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: Yes, Ian Kennedy would like to do well in Arizona, the site of his best year. But I'm going with Chase Anderson instead.
• The Athletics over the Angels: The A's did weaken their offense in their quest for pitching, but they still hold a bamboozling effect on the Angels at the Coliseum. Scott Kazmir over Jeff Weaver.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Royals over the Rangers: Picking the Rangers yesterday was pretty dumb. I don't want to be dumb today. I'll take Jason Vargas over Scott Baker. Baker has been fine out of the bullpen but hasn't started since mid-July. That means five innings and way too much exposure of the Rangers' bad bullpen.

Yesterday: 9-7, August: 178-134, Games of the Day: 79-56 (-1), Season: 1072-883