When one writes about baseball for long enough, there are always going to be times when the writing leads to eating a little crow. Back in 2009, the Florida Marlins gave Emilio Bonifacio 509 plate appearances and he produced the worst major league season that year with a negative WAR of -0.4. Last year, the Atlanta Braves gave Melky Cabrera 509 plate appearances and the Melkman came up with one of the worst seasons in memory with a negative WAR of -1.0. After those two disastrous seasons with ironically the same number of plate appearances, this writer appeased the sabr-gods and dutifully blasted the Marlins for sticking with Bonifacio and the Royals for signing Cabrera. So far this season, this writer has been dead wrong.
Look, neither player will ever be considered an elite player in the major leagues. But what they are doing this year adds consistent value to their teams. Bonifacio plays nearly every day for the Marlins at several different positions. In fact, he's played six different positions and played them all reasonably well (except maybe as a shortstop). And he's always added value with his legs. His base running statistics have always been positive. But this year, he's added much more on base capability.
Bonifacio has really improved his ability to hit a line drive somewhere and it shows in his batting average, which currently sits at .288. His walk percentage still isn't astounding for a speed guy, but at 9.8 percent, it's the highest of his career. Thus, his on base percentage is at a very respectable .360. His increased percentage of being on base has led to runs scored (third on the team) and given him an $8.5 million value of play for the Marlins thus far this season. Again, for a utility guy...a super utility guy, that's good stuff.
Melky Cabrera's addition to the Royals was roundly scorned when it happened before the season, and rightly so. He was awful last year and except for a few flashes here and there for the Yankees, he's really not been that good a player over the course of his career. An indication of that is his career win probability added or WPA. Coming into this season, Cabrera's career WPA was -4.32. In other words, his play did much more to help his team lose than to help his team win.
As mentioned, Cabrera was awful for the Braves last year. His OPS last year in 509 plate appearances was .671. His fielding metrics were awful too and his base running (for a guy that seemed sort of fast) was always in the negative numbers. It was that kind of season, with it's negative WAR, WPA and other metrics that caused all of us to deride the Royals for signing him, even if it was simply viewed as a stopgap move until its younger players were ready. The Royals have certainly struggled, but not because of Melky.
Melky Cabrera has never been a patient hitter and this year, he's even less patient than normal. His walk rate is awful at 5.8 percent and he swings at more than 35 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. Even so, his batting average is the highest it has been in his career at .295 and he's hitting for more power. He already has 12 homers and 23 doubles this season to give him his highest slugging percentage ever at .456. Melky's OPS is more than 100 points higher than last year.
To get a good gauge on how well Melky is playing this season, Fangraphs currently ranks him the seventh best centerfielder in baseball this season. With their being thirty teams, that's pretty darn good. After posting a -1 WAR last season, he's posted a WAR this season of 3.0 with the first positive base running score of his career and much better fielding numbers. Cabrera also has several game winning hits, especially earlier in the season. Fangraphs ranks his play to be worth $13.5 million this season. Perhaps it is time to stop laughing at that signing.
Again, these aren't two of the elite players in baseball. And for at least one season each, they were among the worst players in the league. And perhaps, given their career paths to this point, we could very well see regression as the season rolls along. But for right now, both players have added unexpected value to their teams and perhaps it is high time this writer shut up when it comes to their playing time. The Fan has been wrong about these two players. Admission complete.
Showing posts with label Emilio Bonifacio. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Emilio Bonifacio. Show all posts
Friday, July 15, 2011
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
The Marlins' Love Affair With Emilio Bonifacio
Everyone has to have a cause in life. This Fan has two. One is to hound the Red Sox until they retire Wade Boggs' number. The other is to figure out just what the Florida Marlins see in Emilio Bonifacio. There is nothing personal against the young man from the Dominican Republic. It's just that he's one of those guys whose only real attributes are a good attitude, speed and a willingness to play wherever he's told to play. Those are admirable qualities. It is exactly those qualities that convince those making decisions for the Florida Marlins to continue to trot Bonifacio out there in uniform day after day. The only problem is that for all intents and purposes, he has no business doing so.
For being only 25 years old, Bonifacio has played for three different organizations. He started with the Diamondbacks and actually got a cup of coffee with them in 2007. In 2008, Bonifacio was traded by the D-backs to the Nationals for big Jon Rauch. The D-back turned around and traded Rauch to the Twins for a player to be named later (basically nothing) and Rauch has become a good reliever for the Twins. The funny thing about that trade is that Rauch is a full foot taller than Bonifacio.
Bonifacio got into 41 games with the Nationals and wasn't very good. But the Nationals turned around and coupled Bonifacio with a couple of minor leaguers and traded them to the Marlins for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham. Giving up some major league value like that, the Marlins immediately announced that Bonifacio would be their starting third baseman for the 2009 season.
Things started well in 2009. Bonifacio hit an inside-the-park homer on Opening Day, the first time that had been done since Carl Yastzremski did it forty-one years earlier. After the first couple of weeks, Bonifacio was hitting nearly .500 and was stealing bases and everyone gushed. It didn't last. And it didn't last long. Even so, the Marlins allowed Bonifacio to accumulate 509 plate appearances. 255 of those plate appearances came as the lead off batter. Another 193 of them came from the second spot in the batting order. As a lead off batter, his on base percentage was .299. Ugh! From the second spot in the line up, his on base percentage improved to .305.
So if you are keeping score, the Marlins gave Bonifacio 448 plate appearances in the top two spots of the line up. The end result was that Bonifacio accumulated the lowest OPS in the majors for anyone over 500 plate appearances at .611 He finished with a 61 OPS+. Yes, he stole some bases but with his speed was only successful 70% of the time. If you subtracted his nine caught stealing (he was also picked off a few times) from his OBP, things were even worse.
It almost got to be a comedy that season. Rob Neyer, then with ESPN.com, now with SBNation, wrote scathing posts about him. Others picked up on Neyer's lead. The Marlins' then manager, Fredi Gonzalez, defended Bonifacio as someone who helped the team win by doing something special every day. The Fan heard him say that while in Florida for a couple weeks that summer of 2009. The remembered emotions were disbelief.
And it wasn't like Bonifacio played great defense. His arm is too weak for third and he lacked accuracy. Baseball-reference.com rated his defense at -24 runs above replacement. Fangraphs was only slightly kinder.
So that was Bonifacio's season. And it appeared that the Marlins had learned their lessen the hard way with him and he did not make the club out of Spring Training in 2010. Whew! "Enough of that business," thought the Fan. But the Marlins weren't done with their love affair with the speedster. They brought him up mid-season and Bonifacio ended up seeing action in 73 games. he was a better base stealer. He stole 12 bases without being thrown out. He played six different positions. Fangraphs scored his fielding as above average. Baseball-reference below. So that would make Bonifacio a super-sub or a super-utility guy. Except he was still far from super. Oh, he did raise his OPS+ to 71, but that's still a long way from the MLB average of 100.
The entire trouble with Emilio Bonifacio is that he is a speedster that can't get on base, strikes out too much and has no power whatsoever. His Opening Day inside-the-park homer remains his only homer in the big leagues. In 933 career plate appearances in his career, Bonifacio has 24 doubles and 14 triples. He strikes out over 20 percent and he walks less than 10 percent of the time. If those were reversed, things would be different. Bonifacio now has a total career OPS+ of 64. And it's not like he lit up the minor leagues when he was there either. His career OPS as a minor league player was .703.
Surely, the Marlins could see all of that lack of development and ability and find another man-crush. Please don't call the Fan, Shirley, and no, they haven't. Not one of their spring players has more plate appearances in this pre-season than Bonifacio. The Marlins had hoped that Matt Dominguez would win the third base job, but the prospect slumped badly this spring and now the talk is of moving Omar Infante to third and installing Bonifacio as the starting second baseman to open the season. What!? Yes, friends, their love affair continues.
Nevermind the fact that even batting .175, Matt Dominguez still has a higher OPS than Bonifacio (.617 to .578). Nevermind that Bonifacio has proven in nearly a thousand career plate appearances that he's not going to get better. The Marlins are sticking with their man.
Incredible.
For being only 25 years old, Bonifacio has played for three different organizations. He started with the Diamondbacks and actually got a cup of coffee with them in 2007. In 2008, Bonifacio was traded by the D-backs to the Nationals for big Jon Rauch. The D-back turned around and traded Rauch to the Twins for a player to be named later (basically nothing) and Rauch has become a good reliever for the Twins. The funny thing about that trade is that Rauch is a full foot taller than Bonifacio.
Bonifacio got into 41 games with the Nationals and wasn't very good. But the Nationals turned around and coupled Bonifacio with a couple of minor leaguers and traded them to the Marlins for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham. Giving up some major league value like that, the Marlins immediately announced that Bonifacio would be their starting third baseman for the 2009 season.
Things started well in 2009. Bonifacio hit an inside-the-park homer on Opening Day, the first time that had been done since Carl Yastzremski did it forty-one years earlier. After the first couple of weeks, Bonifacio was hitting nearly .500 and was stealing bases and everyone gushed. It didn't last. And it didn't last long. Even so, the Marlins allowed Bonifacio to accumulate 509 plate appearances. 255 of those plate appearances came as the lead off batter. Another 193 of them came from the second spot in the batting order. As a lead off batter, his on base percentage was .299. Ugh! From the second spot in the line up, his on base percentage improved to .305.
So if you are keeping score, the Marlins gave Bonifacio 448 plate appearances in the top two spots of the line up. The end result was that Bonifacio accumulated the lowest OPS in the majors for anyone over 500 plate appearances at .611 He finished with a 61 OPS+. Yes, he stole some bases but with his speed was only successful 70% of the time. If you subtracted his nine caught stealing (he was also picked off a few times) from his OBP, things were even worse.
It almost got to be a comedy that season. Rob Neyer, then with ESPN.com, now with SBNation, wrote scathing posts about him. Others picked up on Neyer's lead. The Marlins' then manager, Fredi Gonzalez, defended Bonifacio as someone who helped the team win by doing something special every day. The Fan heard him say that while in Florida for a couple weeks that summer of 2009. The remembered emotions were disbelief.
And it wasn't like Bonifacio played great defense. His arm is too weak for third and he lacked accuracy. Baseball-reference.com rated his defense at -24 runs above replacement. Fangraphs was only slightly kinder.
So that was Bonifacio's season. And it appeared that the Marlins had learned their lessen the hard way with him and he did not make the club out of Spring Training in 2010. Whew! "Enough of that business," thought the Fan. But the Marlins weren't done with their love affair with the speedster. They brought him up mid-season and Bonifacio ended up seeing action in 73 games. he was a better base stealer. He stole 12 bases without being thrown out. He played six different positions. Fangraphs scored his fielding as above average. Baseball-reference below. So that would make Bonifacio a super-sub or a super-utility guy. Except he was still far from super. Oh, he did raise his OPS+ to 71, but that's still a long way from the MLB average of 100.
The entire trouble with Emilio Bonifacio is that he is a speedster that can't get on base, strikes out too much and has no power whatsoever. His Opening Day inside-the-park homer remains his only homer in the big leagues. In 933 career plate appearances in his career, Bonifacio has 24 doubles and 14 triples. He strikes out over 20 percent and he walks less than 10 percent of the time. If those were reversed, things would be different. Bonifacio now has a total career OPS+ of 64. And it's not like he lit up the minor leagues when he was there either. His career OPS as a minor league player was .703.
Surely, the Marlins could see all of that lack of development and ability and find another man-crush. Please don't call the Fan, Shirley, and no, they haven't. Not one of their spring players has more plate appearances in this pre-season than Bonifacio. The Marlins had hoped that Matt Dominguez would win the third base job, but the prospect slumped badly this spring and now the talk is of moving Omar Infante to third and installing Bonifacio as the starting second baseman to open the season. What!? Yes, friends, their love affair continues.
Nevermind the fact that even batting .175, Matt Dominguez still has a higher OPS than Bonifacio (.617 to .578). Nevermind that Bonifacio has proven in nearly a thousand career plate appearances that he's not going to get better. The Marlins are sticking with their man.
Incredible.
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
What's Going On in Florida?
It's been three weeks now since the Fan and his lovely wife returned from the annual trip to Florida. The Marlins were still stuck as a .500 club, but good feelings abounded with the hiring of Edwin Rodriguez. And the team has gone 19-16 under Rodriguez. But things have gotten weird down there. The vibe is weird. Or maybe the Fan just doesn't get what Rodriguez is doing. Here are some of those things the Fan is talking about.
First, why did they put Hanley Ramirez back in the lead off spot? What do the Marlins think he is, Soriano or something? Ramirez has slugged over .540 for the past three years. He is off of that pace this year in what has been a down year for him so far, but he is still fourth on the team in slugging, second in OPS+ and has a track record far and away better than anyone else on his team. So why regress him back to first in the order? He has now played in eight games from the lead off spot and he is 4 for 37. Can we all agree that this wasn't a good idea?
Why is Emilio Bonifacio back? Egads! It was thought that we had been rid of Bonifacio when he was nowhere to be seen in the beginning of the season. Whew! We didn't have the least successful major leaguer of them all to kick around anymore. We couldn't shake our heads and wonder how a guy with a 61 OPS+ could get over 500 plate appearances and play terribly in the field to boot (literally). Fredi Martinez got fired, Rodriguez got hired and what's one of the first moves the Marlins make? Emile Freakin' Bonifacio. He's gotten 43 plate appearances and his OPS+ has improved all the way to 71, but it's early yet. At least he is playing the outfield where he's serviceable. Some things just defy explanation. We should just call them the Nick Punto awards.
You would think that if a team trades away a guy like Jorge Cantu, some plan would be in place for how to replace him. Not with the Marlins. The plan went something like this:
1. See if Wes Helms wants the job.
2. Say Number 1 in public and then start Hector Luna there. Hector Luna? THAT Hector Luna? Apparently.
3. Say Donnie Murphy will get some starts there, but he doesn't.
4. If all else fails, that's where Bonifacio played last year. ARRRGGHH!!
Ronny Paulino is good, but he never, ever gets a day off. He caught 25 times in June. He came darn close to that in July but the All Star break saved him. Granted, John Baker isn't very good, but Paulino is going to fall apart at this pace.
First, why did they put Hanley Ramirez back in the lead off spot? What do the Marlins think he is, Soriano or something? Ramirez has slugged over .540 for the past three years. He is off of that pace this year in what has been a down year for him so far, but he is still fourth on the team in slugging, second in OPS+ and has a track record far and away better than anyone else on his team. So why regress him back to first in the order? He has now played in eight games from the lead off spot and he is 4 for 37. Can we all agree that this wasn't a good idea?
Why is Emilio Bonifacio back? Egads! It was thought that we had been rid of Bonifacio when he was nowhere to be seen in the beginning of the season. Whew! We didn't have the least successful major leaguer of them all to kick around anymore. We couldn't shake our heads and wonder how a guy with a 61 OPS+ could get over 500 plate appearances and play terribly in the field to boot (literally). Fredi Martinez got fired, Rodriguez got hired and what's one of the first moves the Marlins make? Emile Freakin' Bonifacio. He's gotten 43 plate appearances and his OPS+ has improved all the way to 71, but it's early yet. At least he is playing the outfield where he's serviceable. Some things just defy explanation. We should just call them the Nick Punto awards.
You would think that if a team trades away a guy like Jorge Cantu, some plan would be in place for how to replace him. Not with the Marlins. The plan went something like this:
1. See if Wes Helms wants the job.
2. Say Number 1 in public and then start Hector Luna there. Hector Luna? THAT Hector Luna? Apparently.
3. Say Donnie Murphy will get some starts there, but he doesn't.
4. If all else fails, that's where Bonifacio played last year. ARRRGGHH!!
Ronny Paulino is good, but he never, ever gets a day off. He caught 25 times in June. He came darn close to that in July but the All Star break saved him. Granted, John Baker isn't very good, but Paulino is going to fall apart at this pace.
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