The walkless nine

Every year at the start of the season, a couple of batters pique the interest as to when they will record their first base on balls of the season. This season, we have nine candidates we will be watching to see who goes the longest this season without getting a walk. Some of the names are surprising due to their histories. And others might be explainable due to how hot they are hitting. After all, who wants to walk when hits are screaming off the bat.

So who will be the last man standing of the following nine (minimum of 30 PAs)?

• Melky Cabrera: The Melkman is off to a good start with the bat. He is batting .327 and already has four homers. Who wouldn't want to swing the bat with that kind of hitting going on? 55 PAs
• Dustin Pedroia: This one is a complete surprise as Pedroia has traditionally walked over 9% of the time in his career and was over 10% last year. He is only batting .237 though. The Red Sox moved him up to the lead-off position yesterday to get his mind into taking more pitches. It did not work.  55 PAs.
• Juan Uribe - The Dodgers' third baseman has never liked to walk much, but the last two years he was over 7%. He is off to a real hot start with the bat and is batting .367. Swing batta batta. 49 plate appearances.
• Aramis Ramirez: A-Ram is another who is off to a hot start with a .383 batting average. Walks need not apply. Plus the team is on an eight game winning streak. So why mess it up? Ramirez has already driven in ten runs. 47 plate appearances.
• Khris Davis: Davis is having an odd season so far. But again, he plays with Ramirez on the Brewers and they are hot. So why worry? Davis is only hitting .269, so his lack of walks makes his on-base percentage look pretty bad. He is striking out at a 32.6% clip without walks. That's an ugly combo. 43 PAs.
• Jonathan Schoop: Schoop made the Orioles team heading north because Machado was not ready to play. He is a top prospect and has looked good at times and bad at times. Having no walks is not a great thing, but is something that happens quite a bit to first year players. He has a .243 BA and a .243 OBP. 37 PAs.
• Steve Lombardozzi: This is the new Orioles' second baseman's regular MO as he only has a 3.2% career walk rate. Having two guys in the lineup with him and Schoop not walking is a problem. Lombardozzi does have a .306 batting average and has been hit once with a pitch. 37 PAs.
• Mitch Moreland: Moreland is the Rangers' DH this season and as such is going up there swinging and hacking. He has no walks and a 30.6% strikeout rate. The Rangers won't put up with that for long.  36 PAs.
• Mike Zunino: The Mariners' young catcher has a wOBA over .360, so his lack of walks have not been a problem yet. Again, it is typical for a young player getting his first shot to swing at everything. And that is what Zunino is doing. 32 PAs.

There are your nine walkless wonders. Of the nine, only Zunino, Schoop and Ramirez are in the top ten at swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. So they are the best candidates we watch as the last MLB batter without a walk.

Who is laughing at Melky Cabrera now?

When the San Francisco Giants traded Jonathan Sanchez and Ryan Verdugo to the Royals for Melky Cabrera on November 7, 2011, we all tittered. Yes, we all said, Cabrera was surprisingly good last season at 4.1 fWAR, but it was an outlier. It was a career season for a guy who just is not that good a player. ZiPS projections agreed and predicted Cabrera would have a 1.9 WAR season. Who is laughing now? Could it be that we were all wrong? It certainly looks that way as Cabrera's play has already garnered 1.4 fWAR in just 39 games for the Giants. If the season were to end now, Cabrera has already earned his $6 million price tag.

The Giants get a lot of flak for their front office and a lot of the criticism has been earned. The Aubrey Huff contract was stupid. But give credit where credit is due. Melky Cabrera has been a steal for the Giants and Jonathan Sanchez has been awful for the Royals. After a 201 hit season in 2011, Cabrera already has 53 this season and has a triple slash line of: .331/.379/.475, good for a 142 OPS+. He is still not a great outfielder, but he is holding his own and his defense has been neutral thus far.

We were right about one thing. Cabrera is not going to hit eighteen homers this season like he did a year ago for the Royals. But he has hit nine doubles and four triples so we are not talking about a Bonifacio here. His BABIP is a bit high at .373. But it was high a year ago at .332. So while there is some room for regression, maybe it won't be as much as we thought. ZiPS has already adjusted its initial WAR projection from the original 1.9 to 3.3. That would still be an excellent season for the Giants. 

There is one area of concern though. While Cabrera is hitting his share of line drives (20.1 percent), he is hitting more ground balls than ever before in his career. After a career ground ball percentage of 49 percent with each previous season not deviating much from that base line, that rate for Cabrera is up to a Jeter-like 60.1 percent. His career ground ball to fly ball ratio of 1.56 is up to 2.53 this year. This ground ball rate does throw up a caution flag that Cabrera cannot continue his current pace.

And Cabrera has been bothered a bit lately with a sore toe. A lot of Cabrera's game revolves around his running and though he isn't the swiftest guy in baseball, he does hustle down the line and a sore toe hurts his chances on those ground balls.

But as of right now, many of us so called experts are eating a little crow when it comes to Melky Cabrera. Perhaps he is a lot better than we've all thought he was. And if so, perhaps the Giants' front office can get something right after all.

Melky and Emilio Down By the Schoolyard

When one writes about baseball for long enough, there are always going to be times when the writing leads to eating a little crow. Back in 2009, the Florida Marlins gave Emilio Bonifacio 509 plate appearances and he produced the worst major league season that year with a negative WAR of -0.4. Last year, the Atlanta Braves gave Melky Cabrera 509 plate appearances and the Melkman came up with one of the worst seasons in memory with a negative WAR of -1.0. After those two disastrous seasons with ironically the same number of plate appearances, this writer appeased the sabr-gods and dutifully blasted the Marlins for sticking with Bonifacio and the Royals for signing Cabrera. So far this season, this writer has been dead wrong.

Look, neither player will ever be considered an elite player in the major leagues. But what they are doing this year adds consistent value to their teams. Bonifacio plays nearly every day for the Marlins at several different positions. In fact, he's played six different positions and played them all reasonably well (except maybe as a shortstop). And he's always added value with his legs. His base running statistics have always been positive. But this year, he's added much more on base capability.

Bonifacio has really improved his ability to hit a line drive somewhere and it shows in his batting average, which currently sits at .288. His walk percentage still isn't astounding for a speed guy, but at 9.8 percent, it's the highest of his career. Thus, his on base percentage is at a very respectable .360. His increased percentage of being on base has led to runs scored (third on the team) and given him an $8.5 million value of play for the Marlins thus far this season. Again, for a utility guy...a super utility guy, that's good stuff.

Melky Cabrera's addition to the Royals was roundly scorned when it happened before the season, and rightly so. He was awful last year and except for a few flashes here and there for the Yankees, he's really not been that good a player over the course of his career. An indication of that is his career win probability added or WPA. Coming into this season, Cabrera's career WPA was -4.32. In other words, his play did much more to help his team lose than to help his team win.

As mentioned, Cabrera was awful for the Braves last year. His OPS last year in 509 plate appearances was .671. His fielding metrics were awful too and his base running (for a guy that seemed sort of fast) was always in the negative numbers. It was that kind of season, with it's negative WAR, WPA and other metrics that caused all of us to deride the Royals for signing him, even if it was simply viewed as a stopgap move until its younger players were ready. The Royals have certainly struggled, but not because of Melky.

Melky Cabrera has never been a patient hitter and this year, he's even less patient than normal. His walk rate is awful at 5.8 percent and he swings at more than 35 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. Even so, his batting average is the highest it has been in his career at .295 and he's hitting for more power. He already has 12 homers and 23 doubles this season to give him his highest slugging percentage ever at .456. Melky's OPS is more than 100 points higher than last year.

To get a good gauge on how well Melky is playing this season, Fangraphs currently ranks him the seventh best centerfielder in baseball this season. With their being thirty teams, that's pretty darn good. After posting a -1 WAR last season, he's posted a WAR this season of 3.0 with the first positive base running score of his career and much better fielding numbers. Cabrera also has several game winning hits, especially earlier in the season. Fangraphs ranks his play to be worth $13.5 million this season. Perhaps it is time to stop laughing at that signing.

Again, these aren't two of the elite players in baseball. And for at least one season each, they were among the worst players in the league. And perhaps, given their career paths to this point, we could very well see regression as the season rolls along. But for right now, both players have added unexpected value to their teams and perhaps it is high time this writer shut up when it comes to their playing time. The Fan has been wrong about these two players. Admission complete.

Best and Worst Base Runners of 2011

Steve Slowinski, Editor-in-Chief of DRaysBay.com who also has his own site (as well as writing for SB Nation and Fangraphs!) was kind enough over on Twitter last night (@SteveSlow) to explain to this old writer how to find base running stats over at FanGraphs.com. And it was fun to look at the leaders and losers in this category in Major League Baseball. As many have pointed out, with runs per game down in the past couple of years, there is more emphasis on base running as a means of scoring runs.

It turns out that quantifying base running is far more difficult than it sounds. There are stolen bases and stolen base percentage. There are bases taken on hits (such as stretching a single into a double, etc.). There are base running events when on base (going from first to third on a single) and there is moving up a base on passed balls and wild pitches. That's complicated! This amateur won't even begin to try to explain all that. Fortunately, in this day and age of stats at our fingertips, others do that for us. All we have to do is know how to search and sort.

First up is your best base runners so far in 2011 along with their base running score as listed by Fangraphs:

1. Michael Bourn (Astros): Bourn is considered by many to be the fastest player in the majors. It would be fun to see Bourn in a race with Peter Bourjous, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner. Score: 4.7.
2. Elvis Andrus (Rangers): Andrus is very aggressive on the base paths and it works more often than not. Score 4.7.
3. Alex Rios (White Sox): Rios is having a bad season. His WAR currently sits at -0.5. But he's still excelling on the base paths. And he must be really good on the bases as he only has six stolen bases. Score: 3.8
4. Melky Cabrera (Royals): Another surprise. Add this up to the surprising season he is already having. His base running adds a lot to his WAR tally. Score: 3.5
5. Drew Stubbs (Reds): His base running score really points out how much better a player he would be if he could cut down his strikeouts. His K's lead the National League. Score: 3.4
6. Alex Gordon (Royals): We should call them the "Runnin' Royals" as Gordon is the second Royal on this list. Score: 3.4
7. Curtis Granderson (Yankees): Granderson is not only hitting the snot out of the ball but he is using his speed and base running skills to have one of the best all around games in baseball this season. Score: 3.4

It's surprising that Jose Reyes isn't higher on this list. He sits at 18th in the majors despite all those triples and stolen bases. Peter Bourjos, who can flat out fly is 15th. And Brett Gardner is 28th, a ranking that bespeaks those who say he is too tentative on the base paths at times.

The other thing to note is that, other than Granderson, the walk percentage for the other six guys on this list are all less than nine percent. In Cabrera and Andrus' cases, both are under six percent. If only these guys could walk more, imagine what damage they could do!

And now for the worst base runners of 2011:

1. Paul Konerko (White Sox): While Konerko's offensive numbers are overlooked in baseball, he is a really bad base runner and is rated far and above all others in base running ineptitude. Since he's also not a good fielder, his WAR is never as high as you would think it should be. Score: -7.3
2. Casey McGehee (Brewers): McGehee's stock as a player has really taken a hit this season. While he is trying to pull every pitch, his average, on base percentage and slugging have all taken hits. Plus, he's a lousy base runner. Score: -4.7
3. Brett Wallace (Astros): Wallace is hitting well and getting on base well. His power numbers are unexpectedly low. But he's a lousy fielder and a lousy base runner. Score: -3.8
4. Bobby Abreu (Angels): The Fan doesn't get this one. Abreu always steals bases, even now that he's 86 years old, he steals bases. But he must not do anything else well on the base paths. Score: -3.7
5. Aramis Ramirez (Cubs): Ramirez is hitting better lately. But his base running is substandard. Score: -3.6

Some other surprisingly bad base runners: Nick Swisher (-3.2), Andre Ethier (-3.2) and Austin Jackson (-2.7). That gives Jackson the trifecta for why he shouldn't be leading off. He's not a good base runner, he doesn't get on base and he strikes out too much.

The worst base runner last year was Adam LaRoche, who had a score of -8.4. Konerko is certainly in line to better (?) that score. Elvis Andrus was the best base runner of 2011 with a score of 8.2. Paul Konerko is the worst base runner for the last five years (2006 to present) with a scary score of -32.3, a full seven points worse than Prince Fielder. Chone Figgins has the best base running score over the last five years at 31.8 followed by Juan Pierre at 24.9.

Melky Wins It Again

Perhaps all a guy needs is a little competition. Melky Cabrera fell apart last year. He wasn't spectacular in 2006 and 2007, but he was at least useful. His OPS+ of 95 and 89 were less than league average but his defense was a little better than league average and he played with enthusiasm which was something the Yankees needed. Last year, there were times when he couldn't hit a ball safely if he there were ten strikes instead of three. His OPS+ fell to 68 and he even found himself back at AAA for a while.

He came back to Spring Training and got off to a slow start. He had been told that he was in a competition for the starting centerfield position with Brett Gardner and it was all but assumed that it was Gardner's position to lose. Gardner did really well in the competition and after a slow start, Melky finished the preseason strong but not strong enough to catch Gardner.

Then Gardner started slowly in the regular season and Melky produced when called upon. Slowly, he started more than Gardner. Then exclusively. His OPS+ thus far is a hefty 137. Tonight, he had his second walk off base hit of the season. Things are going really well.

Gardner got a chance Friday night because a red hot Johnny Damon was kicked out of the game after his second straight strikeout. Apparently, Damon and the umpire didn't see eye to eye. So Gardner was put into center and Melky moved over the left. Gardner went three for three with an inside-the-park homer (his second homer in as many games) and two runs scored.

Gardner is by far the better centerfielder. His RTZ and Zone Ratings are off the charts. It still feels like the Yankees are a better team when he is in there. But you don't want to lose Melky the way he is going either. So here's what the Fan thinks the Yankees should do:

Lefty pitching: Swisher in Right, Melky in Center
Righty pitching: Melkey in Right, Gardner in Center.

Swisher does have 8 homers. But he has three hits in the entire month of May (you called it, Josh!) He's coming off a year where he batted .219. Yes, both of those numbers are incredible: three hits in May, .219 in 2008. You don't lose anything in right field when Melky plays in place of Swisher. The only position you can't play Melky is in left (according to the fielding stats).

Now that A-Rod is back and Teixeira seems to be coming around, Swisher seems less and less necessary and the Yankees might be better off with Melky and Gardner running down balls in the outfield and running around the bases. Oh, and by the way, Gardner has more homers in May than Swisher does.

That should be qualified a bit. One of the two homers Gardner has hit this year (and this month) was the inside the park homer mentioned earlier. It was one of the strangest ever. He hit a little cue shot to left and when it landed, it took a weird hop and skipped by the left fielder. By the time the fielder picked up the ball by the wall, Gardner was already at third and heading home.

That's the kind of excitement that speed brings. That speed also brings fantastic defense and the defense is much better if Gardner is in center and Melky in right.

The Strange Case of Melky Cabrera

Watched a really long Yankee/A's game today that went 14 innings and lasted over five hours. The game featured a start by Melky Cabrera, who spelled Brett Gardner with a left-hander starting for the A's. The game showed the best of the worst of Melky and left this writer just as confused about him as ever.

First, there is the lingering issue over replacing Bernie Williams. Everyone knows that Bernie slowed down and the time had come, but it was still emotionally difficult. The guy was such a steady and classy force for a long time. And he was pushed out by this awkward, graceless kid named Melky Cabrera. Cabrera was everything that Williams was not. He was emotional and voracious. He never looked smooth, yet he did okay to start with.

Perhaps part of his problem was that, in a rarity for the Yankees, this home grown youngster was rushed to the big leagues. He only has 179 At Bats in AAA and 52 of those came last year when he was demoted in the middle of the season. He hit well in AAA, but perhaps he wasn't given enough time to grow there.

He started well for the Yankees. In 2006, he hit .280 and had an OPS of .752 to go along with an OBP of .360. Those are decent numbers. His lack of power, though, left him with an OPS+ of under 100, which is league average. His numbers dropped two straight years after 2006. The OPS from 2006 to 2008: .752, .718, .641. His OBP dropped similarly: .360, .327, .301.

Watching him regularly, the appearance was that he had some good moments, but was over matched against good pitching. Some players can put the ball in play against league average to better pitchers. Melky wilted in such situation, which also explains his well-under-the-Mendoza average in playoff appearances.

Last year was pitiful for Cabrera. He seemed totally lost. He still couldn't hit good pitching, but he wasn't hitting bad pitching either. He flailed around and just looked like he didn't have a clue. Every day, it was like watching Soriano against Red Sox pitching in the playoffs.

So this year, coming into Spring Training, it was announced early that he had to fight for his job. He was going to compete with Brett Gardner for the centerfield position. Gardner, who didn't light the world on fire in his debut last year, has some skills. He is a better fielder than Cabrera, is faster on the base paths and allegedly had more patience at the plate. Plus (shhh), he's white. Apologies for bringing that up, but, hey, it's more of a factor than you may think.

The competition from the beginning was Gardner's to lose. And he didn't. He had a great spring. Melky started roughly in Spring Training and never could catch up, though his ending numbers were very good. Just not good enough to win the job from Gardner.

Today's long game was Melky Cabrera in a nutshell. He started off the night with a right-handed homer. Then he whiffed three times and looked terrible. His strikeout with the bases loaded and no out was particularly horrible. The relief pitcher was throwing the ball all over the place. He couldn't find home plate. That's why the bases were loaded. You would think that Cabrera would only swing at something fat and let the pitcher hang himself. But he didn't. First he swung at one below his knees and then looked like a Little Leaguer by striking himself out on a pitch way over his head. Pathetic.

Of course, it didn't help that his replacement pitch hit right after him and Gardner popped out weakly to the third baseman and after a Jeter pop up, the inning was over and the game droned on for another two hours.

And so we go to the fourteenth inning. There was one out and Swisher was on first with another walk. Swisher is like a younger Giambi in almost every way. Then Cabrera steps up to hit. You can't blame the Fan for rolling his eyes. A double play or a strikeout was fully expected. But instead, Melky crushed one and as soon as he hit it, everyone watching knew the game was over.

So there you have it. Six at bats, two homers, a walk and three strikeouts. That's Cabrera. Who knows. He's terrible, he's a hero. He's terrible. He's okay. It's strange. Maybe he just needs a fresh start and another team that believes in him. Or maybe he's just going to be a usable replacement player who won't necessarily kill you when he gets in there. All the Fan knows is that he is one of the strangest cases in all of baseball.