This Year's Surprise Teams - Who Will Last?

The standings in Major League Baseball are all upside down so far this year and after the Bay Rays exciting emergence last year, it's hard to discount another team busting out from the projections and the odds. Let's look at this year's surprise starts and see who is going to be a factor in the long run.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are in first place in the American League East after eight games which is really a surprise. They are getting timely hitting and have won six of their first eight games. But it seems unlikely they can continue at this pace. Guthrie has had a good start for the rotation and has thrown two brilliant games. It is very possible that Guthrie continues in this positive direction, but he doesn't have enough help with the rest of the rotation. Hendrickson can be decent, and newcomer, Koji Uehara is 2-0. But Uehara's first start was against a flat Yankee team and his second start was not very good. He has given up 17 base runners in ten innings of work. The rest of the rotation consists of Alfredo Simon, who has looked terrible and Adam Eaton, who has made terrible a career art form. And Sherrill as a closer is not impressive at all and a big weakness for this team. The overall bullpen has a couple of guys doing decent and the rest is real iffy.

Melvin Mora is getting up there in years and cannot be counted on for upscale production. He'll probably miss some time to injuries like he always has. The offense has five or six guys who can rake pretty well, but it might be the Orioles' insistence on using an ancient Gregg Zaun to eat up at bats (while they squander Matt Wieters in the minors until June so they can save money in the future) that might help in the team's undoing. How many rallies can Zaun kill before they get the right guy in there?

Prediction: The Orioles will sink due to lack of starting pitching depth, questionable closing and two clunkers in their batting order.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals currently sit on top of the American League Central and it's not all that surprising. They have three really strong starters in Greinke, Meche and Davies. If they can win consistently when those three pitch and get an occasional win from Ponson and Ramirez, there's no reason they can't win three of every five games they play. If the Royals can keep that kind of pace, they have a legitimate shot at this weak division.

Coco Crisp gives this team a whole new look in the batting order and though he isn't hitting much for average, his patience at the place thus far still gives him an OBP of .358. If he starts hitting--and he's shown some consistency there over the years--and maintains his patience, he is going to keep the bases clogged for some pretty good hitters behind him. Overall, to this point, the Royals haven't hit well and they are still 5-3. They should get more offense in the weeks ahead with Jacobs and Teahen. Gordon's injury is a concern though. It's hard to think that Buck, who has been their offensive hero to this point, will have that great a year with his history.

Prediction: With strong starting pitching, they should contend. If they lose any of their top three starters to injury, they will be in trouble. The hitting is a bit of a concern. But they look and feel legitimate to this point.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners sit on top of the American League West and that also is surprising. When a team does as poorly as the Mariners have done in recent years, it seems inevitable that they will return to form. But a lot of things look positive for the Mariners thus far. They are getting good starting pitching from Hernandez, Washburn and Bedard and Silva had a good outing last night after a poor first one.

This team has more excitement so far in their demeanor than at any time in the last two years. Is that a Griffey affect? It's hard to give the old slugger that much credit. Maybe it's the new manager and some of the younger guys that have added a spark. All the Fan knows is that guys like Chavez and Betancourt have been spark plugs. Griffey isn't hitting all that much, but he does have a .400 OBP and Ichiro Suzuki hasn't even played yet. He's back tonight though.

The two glaring weaknesses for the Mariners are not having a stud closer and horrid catching. Morrow has been the closer thus far and though he has two saves in two opportunities, he's walked six batters in 3+ innings. If he keeps that up, blown saves will come in bunches. Johjima and Johnson have been terrible at the plate thus far and both are far below the Mendoza Line. Neither of them walk much and they are rally killers to say the least.

Prediction: This is a weak division and if their starting pitching holds up (Bedard is always in injury waiting to happen), they have a chance to contend. Who would have thought it?

Florida Marlins

There is no team the Fan is more excited about than the Florida Marlins. Emilio Banifacio has given the team a spark on offense as he runs around the bases and he brings excitement when he plays. His ability to bunt for base hits really make him a threat. His one weakness is that he doesn't walk much. If he can develop some patience, look out! Hitting in front of Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu has been deadly to this point. Ramirez is really taking to his new spot in the lineup and has been an RBI machine thus far.

But what is really exciting about the Marlins is their pitching. Johnson, Volstad, Nolasco and Sanchez are all potential studs and three of those four have had great starts to their season. The bullpen has not been solid and they are questionable at closer with Lindstrom, but they have a couple of good arms like Penn, Colero and Nunez that could keep them in games.

Prediction: This is a tough division and the Braves look strong. But if the Marlins pitching holds up, they could be the Bay Rays of 2009.

Cincinatti Reds

The Reds have had a good start and are currently a game out of first place in the National League Central. They have two of the grittiest starting pitchers in baseball with Harang and Arroyo but it is really troubling that their two best arms in Volquez and Cueto cannot find a way to be consistently dominating. They have one dominating start and then they get clobbered. Until they can find a way to win when they don't have their best stuff, they will plague this team.

The Fan has watched two of the Red games this year and though Votto is off to a great start, this offense lacks patience and makes it too easy for the other team's starting pitching to get them out. They are very young and this Fan is not convinced that Bruce is the star everyone thinks he's going to be. He looks outmatched far too often.

The Reds have some good news in the bullpen. The veteran Rhodes has had a good start and Cordero is a very good closer. Burton, Weathers and Masset have also pitched well out of the pen thus far.

Prediction: Their inconsistent starting pitching and lack of patience at the plate will continue to sabotage this team and they will not be able to overcome the Cubs and Cardinals.

San Diego Padres

The Padres were expected to be abysmal this year and here they are at 6-2 and leading the National League West division. They have two very good starters in Peavy and Young and are getting a bit more offense than last year. But it seems likely that they will fall to earth in the not too distant future.

The offense is still troubling to the Fan. Giles doesn't seem to have much left. Adrian Gonzalez is a stud at first base, but will the timely hitting of Hundley, Haiston and Gerut continue? It seems unlikely. The rest of the starting rotation is a huge question mark as well. Walter Silva and Kevin Correia cannot find the strike zone often enough and never give the team more than five innings before they run out of pitch count. Shawn Hill gave the Padres a decent start, but his history is hard to overcome in thinking he will be much of a factor.

The bullpen, as always, is a strength for the Padres. Heath Bell looks fantastic as a closer and though the rest of the relievers don't blow people away, they seem very good at keeping the team in the game.

Prediction: The Padres don't seem to have enough offense and starting pitching to continue to contend. It seems inevitable that they shrink back to the pack. They still might be better than predictions though and might be better than the Giants and the Diamondbacks in the long run.

Two Games. Two Simultaneously Weird Innings

Baseball is such a great game. Yes, the stats are fun. Yes, the analysis is great. But the games themselves provide so many unexpected moments. Two really weird innings happened at the exact same time in two different ballparks. One didn't factor greatly in the results of the game. The other really did. In the words of Randy Jackson, "Check it out, Baby."

First, we start in Toronto. The Tigers had scored three runs in the top of the first on a Miguel Cabrera homer. Zack Minor (check out the next post for more on him) comes out to pitch the bottom of the first for the Tigers. Marco (Polo!) Scaturo immediately greets Minor with a double to left. Aaron Hill hits a bomb to deep center for another double that scores Scaturo. Alex Rios singles to right field but Hill is held up at third. Vernon Wells then walks to load the bases. So a run is in and the Tigers are in some Minor trouble.

At the same time, in Baltimore, the Yankees are trying to win their first game of the year. But they went scoreless in the top of the first despite a walk by Jeter. Chien-Ming Wang comes out in the bottom of the first for his debut for the year after an injury-filled 2008. It doesn't start well at all for Wang. After Roberts grounded out to start the inning, Adam Jones hits a ground rule double to deep right. Nick Markakis pounds the ball to deep center for another double that scores Jones. Sounds familiar doesn't it? Aubrey Huff breaks the pattern and his the third consecutive double and plates Markakis. Melvin Mora is up next and Wang is in a heap of trouble.

The Fan, at this point is flipping back and forth to both games as all this is happening...well...simultaneously. We now flip back to Toronto. Remember the bases are loaded, one run is already in and there are no outs. Lind is up for the Blue Jays and he has already had a hot start. But he grounds it to the infield and a force is made at home and Aaron Hill is out. Runners still fill the bases and there is still only one out.

Flip back to Baltimore. Huff is on second and Mora is up. Two runs are already in. Inexplicably, Huff heads for third. Wang fires over to Ransom and Huff is tagged out. What the? What was he thinking? To make matters worse, Mora then singles and is on first with two out. The single would probably have scored Huff. But with two outs, Luke Scott grounds to the infield and Mora is forced at second to end the inning.

Flip! Toronto still has the bases loaded with one out. A run has already scored, but Zack Minor induced a ground ball force out at the plate, so that's the one out. Scott Rolen is up next and hits a fly ball to right field. Josh Anderson catches it and throws a strike to Gerald Laird and Rios is out, double play! Wow!

Two innings, lots of guys running around, lots of base runners and two very bizarre happenings. Only three runs score when it seemed like there would be a dozen between the two innings. The Orioles went ahead and won anyway, because Wang just didn't have anything tonight. But in Toronto, the Blue Jays never scored again, so that inning really did win the game for the Tigers.

Baseball is so great.