The over/under of PECOTA's top 15 players

I love projections. I fully understand that they are simply computer-generated predictors based on past performance and current playing factors. I also fully understand that they are somewhat helpful to fantasy baseball players. But projections are not perfect and never have been.

I do not have a favorite projection system. I may like ZiPs a little more because I follow the guy on Twitter and he is personable. But they all have their place and some are more conservative than others.

PECOTA is Baseball Prospectus' proprietary system and it tends to be conservative. I found their top fifteen position player projections very interesting. As such, I wanted to spend some time with these fifteen players and give you an over/under on whether PECOTA was too conservative or not. Too conservative is an over vote. Not conservative enough is an under vote. I will give you the player, the projected triple slash line, WAR(P) and then a justification of over or under. Here we go.

15 - Evan Longoria - .261/.350/.480  4.3 WARP: This is very conservative, so over. I don't have too much of a problem with the triple slash line as they are near to what Longoria did last year. But I consider Longoria's season a year ago to be disappointing on the offensive side. I think he will be better. And his fielding puts him over six WAR easily.

14 - Joe Mauer - .315/.402/.456  4.4 WARP: These numbers are all under his career averages and he beat each of them last year. Playing first base will free him up physically and as I wrote a few days ago, I think that will lead to bigger offensive numbers and make up for his loss of positional value by moving to the dead zone of first base. Over.

13 - Matt Kemp - .282/.344/.486  4.5 WARP: PECOTA must be still smoking whatever Kemp was having back in 2011. Of all the systems I have looked at, this is the most optimistic version of Matt Kemp of all of them. Unless proven otherwise, the 2011 Matt Kemp is gone for good in a haze of shoulder troubles. Under.

10 - Prince Fielder - .285/.393/.518  4.7 WARP: All the systems are conservative on Fielder, which is odd considering that he is moving from one of the toughest stadiums on hitters to one of the best. PECOTA is more optimistic than all the others for the big first baseman but still only projects him to hit 33 homers. Based on an albeit small sample size, I think he will hit 20 homers at home and 13 on the road should be a piece of cake. All Fielder has to do is get back to where he was in 2012 to beat this projection. Over.

10 - Andrew McCutchen - .278/.358/.465  4.7 WARP: This is probably the easiest one of the bunch. McCutchen has beaten these numbers in each of the last two seasons. Barring injury (knocking wood), he should breeze by these numbers. My only concern is if the Pirates fall back to a non-contention team. Over.

10 - Buster Posey - .294/.367/.466  4.7 WARP: Projecting a catcher is always problematic because so much depends on dings and dents accumulated over the season. All you have to do is look at the wild swing of Posey's fWAR numbers over the last four seasons to see what I mean: 3.9, 1.7, 7.7 and 4.8. PECOTA pegs Posey right around his numbers for last year, which I considered a bit of a down year for him. If he bounces back at all to somewhat near what he did in 2012, he will blow past these numbers. But again, for a catcher, this is a crap shoot at best. Over.

7 - Robinson Cano - .293/.343/.490  4.9 WARP: PECOTA is really expecting Safeco Field and the lack of protection in the lineup to mess with Cano. But let's look at it this way: In forty games played at that field, Cano has a .837 OPS, which is four points higher than this projection. All Cano has to do to blow away this projection is to do better on the road. Cano has batted over .300 in six of his last seven seasons including the last five in a row. His OBP has been 35 to 40 points higher than this for the last two seasons. And he has been over .500 slugging for five straight seasons. Yeah, Safeco will dampen him a bit, but come on. Over.

7 - Adrian Gonzalez - .286/.366/.485  4.9 WARP: Perhaps I have to admit my bias here. I really can't stand Adrian Gonzalez. There is no rhyme or reason for my antipathy, but there is. Even so, this is overly optimistic. Gonzalez's fWAR figures the last two seasons were 3.3 and 2.8. That is hardly close to 4.9. PECOTA has him hitting 28 homers. Not a chance. Under. But I am biased.

7 - Giancarlo Stanton - .267/.345/.546  4.9 WARP: Every projection system expects Stanton to have a monster season. The average projection for him is 5 WAR and 35 homers or more PECOTA has him at 40 homers. There are two things that concern me. First, pitchers have stopped pitching to him, second he strikes out too much and lastly, he cannot stay on the field for 150 games. I see only a chance for one of those three things to change. Under.

6 - Mike Trout - .288/.354/.467   5.2 WARP: Are you kidding me? Over. Easily. The Angels are going to have a better year and that can only help Trout. Over. Over. Over.

5 - Troy Tulowitzki - .298/.369/.524   5.4 WARP: One of these years, Tulowitzki is going to play 150 games or more. And if he does, these numbers will look puny. He is the best overall shortstop in the game, who unfortunately, cannot seem to get a full season in. I am going out on a limb here and saying that this is the year. Over.

3 - Miguel Cabrera - .313/.392/.560  5.7 WARP: Duh. Over. He will miss Prince Fielder, but the guy has murdered these numbers for years now.

3 - Ryan Braun - .302/.364/.544  5.7 WARP: Would you really say Ryan Braun in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera? No, but he has put up these kinds of numbers regularly. But how will he react after last year's fiasco? What will it be like with all that pressure to show he is that good without the drugs? I think this is 50/50. But I'm going under.

2 - Joey Votto - .299/.400/.531  5.9 WARP: The final OPS number is similar to what Votto put up last year. His on-base percentage was much higher, but his slugging was lower. I really don't understand the knock on him that Reds fans have of the guy. He is a great hitter. All that said, last year seemed like a down year for him when he did put the bat on the ball, though his BABIP was right in range with his career average. I don't know. The guy seems like a lock to get at least 5.9 WARP, but I am not real sold on the lineup around him. Under.

1 - Albert Pujols - .296/.382/.548  6.9 WARP: Surprise! I bet you wouldn't guess this in a million years. Not only does PECOTA project Pujols as the top WARP guy in baseball, but by a win! Wow. Pujols hasn't had a WAR this high since 2010. He is older. He is not the guy anymore. The guy now is Cabrera. Pujols isn't even the best player on his team. That would be Mike Trout. But...what if his struggles the last three years were because of his legs? What if that was fixed now and he has his base back under him. The guy was the superstar of superstars. He was better than Cabrera during his peak. What if, for one magical season, we see the Albert Pujols of old with a monster year? It could happen. Will it? I would not bet real money on it. But it is in the realm of possibility. Just ask the computer. Well...ask PECOTA's computer as no other projection system has him close to these numbers.

The awards season is over - How did I do?

Now that the MVPs have been announced and Twitter has been through a day of name-calling ("Stupid" and "Moron" the most common), we have our full slate of awards for the season. I wanted to take a second to look back at my choices and see how I came out next to the BBWAA and the BBA. So I took a look at my picks and all in all, there was not a whole lot of disagreement.

The BBA differed from the BBWAA in two areas. The BBA had John Farrell for its best manager in the American League for 2013 and had Mike Trout as the best player in the American League. I differed from both organizations on two accounts each, which is sort of weird.

I had Yasiel Puig as my rookie in the National League and I had Mike Trout as the best AL player. But my manager picks both agreed with the BBWAA manager picks. Both the BBWAA and BBA had Jose Fernandez as the NL's best rookie so there was a disconnect for me with both organizations. I differed on Trout with the BBWAA and on Farrell with the BBA.

There was some division caused by the NL rookie voting, but nothing like the vitriol caused by the Trout versus Miguel Cabrera camps. The passion displayed by both sides is really heated and frankly, I find the name-calling distasteful. There is some disconnect out there on how to rate players that many have dubbed an old-school versus new-school debate.

That is unfortunate because it is divisive. Yes, Trout has not received the ultimate recognition but he did win the Silver Slugger Award and came in second in the BBWAA voting, so that is hardly sheep dip. I believe he is the best player in the American League for the second season in a row. But the fact is that 99.8% of those who voted in either organization do so because they write about a sport they love. There are simply some who disagree on how to value players and what is important in doing so.

There is one area of agreement and that is that Miguel Cabrera is the best offensive player of this generation. He might even be the best hitter I have seen in my lifetime. So the arguments have been about the best pure hitter in baseball versus the best all-around player in the game today. I worry a bit about Cabrera's rise in slugging since 2010 because of the times we live in and I have not forgotten his alcohol-related incidents earlier in his career. I still consider those egregious and thought he got a pass by baseball.

But those are side issues and do not take away the greatness of his offensive exploits. I find the argument an interesting one on how to value Cabrera versus Trout. I just hate the name calling.

We have our awards and we have our winners. They are etched in stone for the rest of baseball immortality. Debates about the winners have been going on forever. The tone is just different. I am glad my choices were made and stick with them and am somewhat pleased that I was dead on in most of them. Of course, neither the BBA or the BBWAA have come around to adopting the Dan Meyer and Kyle Davies Awards. That is there problem. Heh.

When Albert Pujols was better than Miguel Cabrera

Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball. Pretty much everyone agrees with that assessment. Oh, you might get a few Votto votes, but Cabrera has pretty much dominated the offensive world for the past three seasons. It was not long ago when that title belonged to Albert Pujols. The run Pujols put together in his first ten seasons rivaled any player that has ever played the game. It seems strange to say that now, doesn't it? Since his last season in St. Louis to his first two years for the Angels, Pujols seems a cut above ordinary. But even the great Miguel Cabrera could not match Pujols at his best.

If you put their first ten years side by side, Pujols comes out on top in just about every category. Pujols had 98 more hits, 40 more doubles, 86 more homers, 205 more walks, 107 more runs driven in and over 200 more runs scored. In some bit of fairness, Pujols had 308 more plate appearances. But even then, there would have been no way for Cabrera to catch up to those numbers.

This is not knocking what Cabrera has done after his first ten years. This exercise is just to show how good Albert Pujols really was. Perhaps you might also argue that Cabrera had all those years with the lowly Marlins to depress his totals. Fair enough. Then just take Cabrera as a Tiger and compare it to Pujols' Cardinal years and he still cannot match what Pujols did.

For example, Cabrera has an amazing 161 OPS+ during his six years with the Tigers. Pujols was at 170 for his ten years with the Cardinals. Cabrera has a .404 on-base percentage with the Tigers. Pujols was at .420 for the Cardinals. Cabrera has a .585 slugging percentage with the Tigers. Pujols slugged .617 with the Cardinals. Heck, Pujols even stole more than 40 bases more than Cabrera in their first ten years as ballplayers in the majors.

About the only thing you can give Cabrera when comparing the two players through their first ten seasons is that he hit into nine less double plays.

The big question for the future is whether Cabrera can keep up the pace of his hitting longer than Pujols did. Since joining the Angels in his Age 32 and Age 33 seasons, Pujols has hit at an .825 OPS pace. That is so far below his career average that it seems like a totally different player. If you look at both players from their Age 27 seasons to their Age 30 seasons, they are too close to call.

Can Cabrera keep up the pace better than Pujols has? Or will he too decline dramatically a couple of seasons from now when he too hits his Age 32 and Age 33 seasons?

The one thing that gives Cabrera fans hope that he can maintain his peak longer than Pujols is that his trend is totally different. Take a look at their two wOBA charts from Fangraphs.com:

The top chart shows not only that Pujols had an amazing peak and hovered around the .400 wOBA mark for years, but also that there has been a sharp decline for four years now. On the bottom graph, or Cabrera's, the trend is up, up and away. 

That is not to say that Cabrera will not start to slow down as he goes past thirty like Pujols has. They have similar body types despite Pujols being more of a workout guy with less body fat. Let's just say that Cabrera is trending better and has a chance to stay better.

While it is true that Albert Pujols has been a disappointment since joining the Angels, especially for that contract he signed, the other truth is that this generation of baseball fans has had a chance to see two of the really special careers in the history of baseball. Someday we will look back and reflect on both careers and say, "Man, they were awesome offensive players."

Miguel Cabrera Merits Concern, Not Judgement

There is a certain slice of our society that received the news concerning the arrest of Miguel Cabrera with either glee or condemnation. Throw the bum in jail was probably an oft repeated thought. And yes, on the one hand, over-pampered athletes that make millions of dollars to do something we would all love to be able to do get little sympathy when they get into trouble. And yes, there is always the knowledge that what Cabrera chose to do could have killed somebody. The Fan gets all of those thoughts and ideas. And perhaps the Fan is an old softy, but this news was not good news. It was sad news.

It was sad because most of us believed that Cabrera was over the problems that made him an embarrassment at the end of the 2009 season when he let his teammates down during the pennant stretch. If Cabrera was not forthright about his shame at his problems, if he hadn't apologized so profusely or worked so hard to beat the alcohol, we wouldn't be sad. But he did all those things. He was a different man last year and his play reflected his sobriety and his new status as a dry ball player. That Cabrera was worth rooting for and someone to be encouraged about. His arrest is shocking to the system and shocking how far a person can fall.

But it really isn't shocking if you have any experience with alcohol or drug addiction. This writer has a family riddled with the stuff and it's a painful family shame and the stress is extreme. When you live through that kind of thing, you understand that addiction is never beaten. It is only handled and overcome on a daily basis.  Many addicted who spend some time away from the root of their problem think that one drink won't hurt or that an occasional taste won't hurt. But it's all that is needed to restart the snowball from hell to start running down a hill. Consider cigarette smoking. Many have quit that awful and sad addiction for months or even years at a time only to fall prey to the addiction from a family stress situation or a few too many to drink at a party.

No, Miguel Cabrera doesn't get a free pass this time. He needs to confront and face this episode and work with doctors to get him back on the dry side. But the last thing Cabrera needs is judgement and punishment. If anything, facing his problem should be the alternative to punishment and only failing to work on solutions for his life should lead to suspensions and that sort of thing.

You have to have experience with addiction to know how difficult this is. If you and your family have been immune to this kind of situation, it's very difficult to explain to have you understand. Yes, all addiction stems from choices. Yes, to a strong degree, we have control over those choices. But life can be hard and sometimes resolve can crumble in a quick spate of depression. It happens.

Ultimately, this Fan will root for Cabrera. He's not just a rich ball player. He's a human being with a family and children. His blood runs red and he's part of the human family. How can you not root for him to learn from this experience and work diligently to keep it from being repeated? People around him are affected too and thus they need our support and prayers. Point fingers if you must. Be one of the throng that shout epithets to him at the stadium. Not this Fan. This Fan will be concerned with thoughts only on Cabrera being well and a healthy member of society and our human family.

Re-thinking Cabrera and MVP

As most baseball fans know, Miguel Cabrera was having a monster season when it was cut short on September 27. Most baseball fans also know that his name has fallen out of favor when it comes to MVP voting because, first, he plays first base and is below average at doing so and secondly, his Tigers fell out of contention a month an a half ago. Heck, even this writer didn't pick him with his BBA vote. But this last week has given at least this writer a bit of a pause.

When Cabrera got hurt, the Tigers were on a roll. They had won eight of their last ten. Cabrera was right in the middle of all that with four homers and a lot of ribbies. The Tigers were climbing back to respectability. They had beaten the Twins, the Royals and the White Sox quite handily. Since Cabrera got hurt, the Tigers have lost five straight including two double-headers to the Indians and the Orioles. During their 8-2 run, the Tigers were scoring 6.7 runs a game. Since Cabrera got hurt, they've scored 2.6 runs a game. Granted, we're looking at a small sample size, but it seems like more that a coincidence.

Without Cabrera, Raburn bats clean up. Raburn is a good player, but his OPS is 200 points lower than Cabrera. Cabrera's replacement at first is Don Kelly, a journeyman minor league player with 300+ at bats in the majors with a .619 OPS. That's 400 points less than Cabrera. Yeah, Kelly hit a homer on Friday night, but shoot, the pitchers on the other team are going to pitch this line up completely different than they would if Cabrera was stuck right in the middle of it. Cabrera struck fear into pitchers like Jim Rice did (that was a joke by the way). Pitchers can be more careful to Damon and the rest because they don't have to worry about Cabrera.

Miguel Cabrera has been walked intentionally 32 times in 2010. Nobody else on the team has more than five. That's one of the reasons that Cabrera scored 111 runs this season. All those walks mean more men on base. More men on base means greater odds at scoring. It's all pretty simple.

The bottom line is that the Tigers suck without Miguel Cabrera. The Tigers are pretty good with Miguel Cabrera. That's a big difference and the essence of a most valuable player, is it not? Sometimes we make these educated assumptions such as first basemen aren't that important so their defense that figures into WAR are devalued compared to shortstops, third basemen and center fielders. In essence, the Fan gets that. But what it doesn't tell you is the value a player adds to the line up and what happens to that line up when the player isn't there. Cabrera isn't there and the Tigers have lost five straight. That's no coincidence.

Quite a Race Going for AL MVP

Josh Hamilton has been amazing for the Rangers. Every single day the box score reveals multiple hits, doubles, homers, ribbies. The guy is just on another planet right now. But he's still not a lock for MVP. Another candidate is Miguel Cabrera, who has been putting up his own monster season. Robinson Cano has faded a bit in recent weeks, but if he heats up again, he is currently fourth in the majors in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Youkilis is a long shot and Morneau needs to come back hot from his concussion.

Those who vote for MVP usually vote on traditional counting stats. Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera lead the way in those categories. Currently first and second in batting respectively, they combine a high batting average with plenty of power and both are driving in runs in prodigious regularity. Hamilton is batting .360. Cabrera is batting .347. Both are amazing averages. Cabrera has Hamilton by one homer and fourteen RBIs. He also leads Hamilton in runs scored by four. Those are the traditional stats that MVP voters look at when the season is over. But there are other factors. If any of the voters are interested in some of the newer statistics, we'll get to those in a minute.

Team factors will arise for voters. Cano will have problems because he plays with a bunch of superstars. Hamilton isn't the only force in the Rangers' lineup. Young, Kinsler and especially, Vlad Guerrero, are all having great years. So that may be a detraction from Hamilton. Cabrera is the only great hitter in his lineup. Yes, rookies Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch are having good seasons. But they can't carry the lineup like Cabrera can. The problem Cabrera might face is if the Tigers fall out of the race and become irrelevant. If that happens, Cabrera's chances will suffer.

Youkilis and Morneau will have arguments as well. Morneau led all of baseball in WAR for most of the season until the last couple of weeks. Youkilis has had a great season and has been a rock for the Red Sox in a season of injury and upheaval. If the Red Sox cannot catch up to the two top teams in the AL East, he'll have problems getting votes. Morneau has been slowed by his concussion, but he also has a problem with his own teammates. Joe Mauer is considered one of the best players in baseball at a premier position and Delmon Young is having an amazing breakout season. Young might be the Twins MVP right now. Both Morneau and Youkilis have one other problem that Cabrera shares. They are all first baseman and because that position is so loaded throughout baseball (the NL MVP will come down to two first basement too in Votto and Pujols), all those great players get jumbled up in jumbo.

Will anybody with an MVP vote care about the newfangled statistics? Probably a few. If so, Cabrera leads all of baseball with an OPS of 1.067. Morneau is second and Hamilton is third. Morneau leads all of baseball in wOBA at .447. But that category is really tight. Cabrera is at .444 and Hamilton is at .441. Youkilis is fourth at .421. There is another stat called Win Probability (WPA) and Cabrera is first in that category and Hamilton second. Nobody is remotely close to them in those categories.

Where it gets dicey is if you go by value which includes fielding. Cabrera still isn't considered an elite first baseman. He has improved, no doubt. But he is not great. Hamilton is having a fine season in left and Morneau is having a great season in the field. When you add fielding to batting, you get a statistic called WAR or Wins above Replacement which is used to figure a dollar value on a player's performance. Hamilton leads the majors with a WAR of 5.4 and a value of $21.6 million. Morneau is second at 5.2 and $20.6 million. Carl Crawford, a long shot for this award, is a surprising third at 5.1 and $20.5 million. But it's really not that surprising to those who look at these kinds of numbers. Crawford has hit for some power, steals bases and is the best left fielder in the game today.

So where are we? Well, we have to take into consideration what the old-fogey voters vote for. They want average. They want power. And they want their winner to be on a contending team. Hamilton fits. Crawford fits, but again, he suffers from playing with Longoria and Zobrist who will distract some votes. Cabrera will lose out because the Tigers are fading and because he is a first baseman. That leaves us with Josh Hamilton, who would win if the vote was held tomorrow. And for once, the voters would not be wrong.

Rooting for Cabrera

A story on ESPN.com today confirmed that Miguel Cabrera has a drinking problem and spent three months in treatment. According to the story, Cabrera has said that he has changed his life around and hasn't had a drink in a long time. This Fan is hoping that Cabrera can stay strong through this and kick it.

The Fan knows all about alcohol abuse. There has been a lot of personal experience with family members and it isn't pretty. Knowing first hand the emotional stress such experiences can bring, it is really hoped for him and his family's sake that he is on the right road.

It has to be difficult for someone so young to be so talented and so rich. Most of us learn a little bit of wisdom before we get any scratch in life. But these players are rewarded so richly so quickly that it has to be difficult to keep on any kind of even keel. The Fan doesn't believe that money is the root of all evil, but it sure makes the temptations in life easier to obtain.

Miguel Cabrera has always seemed like a good guy. He plays like he enjoys what he is doing. And he should. One can only imagine how formidable he can be now that he is sober if he performed as well as he did with an addiction. And like anything else, it took a crisis for him to realize that he had a problem. Fortunately, that crisis didn't cost him his life or someone else's.

So the Fan is rooting for Cabrera just like the Fan is rooting for Josh Hamilton. We are all put on this earth with special gifts and talents. Too bad some of us don't get paid for our talents as richly as others. Or maybe it isn't too bad at all depending on how you look at it. All the Fan knows is that it would be great if Cabrera and Hamilton and others that struggle with abusive natures and conquer them and be the best they can be with the abilities they are given.

Is Miguel Cabrera Overlooked?

The Detroit Tigers are trying their best to stay on top of what is one of baseball's weakest divisions. Despite their struggles, they have managed to hold off the White Sox, before that team took a nose dive, and now the Twins. The Tigers aren't perfect. They have their share of pitching woes behind Jackson and Verlander. Their offense is sporadic at times. But one constant has been Miguel Cabrera, who has been everything the team hoped for when they got him from the Marlins. But how many times have you read about Cabrera this season in the big media outlets?

The guy is a monster with the bat. He is tied for second in the American League in OPS+ (with Kevin Youkilis). He is fifth in the league in total bases. He sports a .336 batting average and .399 On Base Percentage. What more can the guy do? Perhaps if he didn't play in the cavernous confines of the Tigers' home stadium, he'd have more than 27 homers and his name would be on more people's tongues. But the guy has been fantastic and you hear so little about it.

Just like you don't hear much about what Cabrera has already accomplished in his young career. You have to remember that the guy is only 26 years old. He's already played seven seasons. He already has over 1100 hits (almost 1200). He already has over 200 homers. He's already driven in over 700 runs. He already has almost 250 career doubles. Say he plays to the age of 40, which is 14 more years. Triple those numbers and see what you come up with. The guy could be an all-timer and yet there isn't much fanfare over the guy. Even Justin Morneau gets more ink than this guy.

What Cabrera has accomplished in his 26 years is breathtaking. Perhaps a big run in the playoffs or something like that will get him where he belongs: In the nation's attention.

Two Games. Two Simultaneously Weird Innings

Baseball is such a great game. Yes, the stats are fun. Yes, the analysis is great. But the games themselves provide so many unexpected moments. Two really weird innings happened at the exact same time in two different ballparks. One didn't factor greatly in the results of the game. The other really did. In the words of Randy Jackson, "Check it out, Baby."

First, we start in Toronto. The Tigers had scored three runs in the top of the first on a Miguel Cabrera homer. Zack Minor (check out the next post for more on him) comes out to pitch the bottom of the first for the Tigers. Marco (Polo!) Scaturo immediately greets Minor with a double to left. Aaron Hill hits a bomb to deep center for another double that scores Scaturo. Alex Rios singles to right field but Hill is held up at third. Vernon Wells then walks to load the bases. So a run is in and the Tigers are in some Minor trouble.

At the same time, in Baltimore, the Yankees are trying to win their first game of the year. But they went scoreless in the top of the first despite a walk by Jeter. Chien-Ming Wang comes out in the bottom of the first for his debut for the year after an injury-filled 2008. It doesn't start well at all for Wang. After Roberts grounded out to start the inning, Adam Jones hits a ground rule double to deep right. Nick Markakis pounds the ball to deep center for another double that scores Jones. Sounds familiar doesn't it? Aubrey Huff breaks the pattern and his the third consecutive double and plates Markakis. Melvin Mora is up next and Wang is in a heap of trouble.

The Fan, at this point is flipping back and forth to both games as all this is happening...well...simultaneously. We now flip back to Toronto. Remember the bases are loaded, one run is already in and there are no outs. Lind is up for the Blue Jays and he has already had a hot start. But he grounds it to the infield and a force is made at home and Aaron Hill is out. Runners still fill the bases and there is still only one out.

Flip back to Baltimore. Huff is on second and Mora is up. Two runs are already in. Inexplicably, Huff heads for third. Wang fires over to Ransom and Huff is tagged out. What the? What was he thinking? To make matters worse, Mora then singles and is on first with two out. The single would probably have scored Huff. But with two outs, Luke Scott grounds to the infield and Mora is forced at second to end the inning.

Flip! Toronto still has the bases loaded with one out. A run has already scored, but Zack Minor induced a ground ball force out at the plate, so that's the one out. Scott Rolen is up next and hits a fly ball to right field. Josh Anderson catches it and throws a strike to Gerald Laird and Rios is out, double play! Wow!

Two innings, lots of guys running around, lots of base runners and two very bizarre happenings. Only three runs score when it seemed like there would be a dozen between the two innings. The Orioles went ahead and won anyway, because Wang just didn't have anything tonight. But in Toronto, the Blue Jays never scored again, so that inning really did win the game for the Tigers.

Baseball is so great.