Yesterday in this space, Trevor Hoffman's career was pondered concerning his place in baseball history. Since that post, many other writers have written of Hoffman's career. Many believe he is a first-ballot Hall of Fame player. Others are in this writer's boat in not knowing how to quantify what 601 saves are worth. It's frustrating to only have Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to go by. Yeah, there are other stats similar to WAR to measure a player's worth over the course of his career, but they all do similar things. Hoffman's 30.7 accumulative WAR doesn't get the pitcher far in the valuation question. Are there other ways to look at it?
One method comes to mind but the Fan isn't sure it makes sense. But here goes. Hoffman pitched just slightly above one inning per appearance for his career. It's close enough to call it a one to one equation. He saved 601 games. Another way to look at that figure is to say he had a hand in one-ninth of the win. one-ninth of 601 equals 66.77 wins (601 divided by 9). Hoffman also won 61 games in his career. Again, crediting him for one-ninth of those wins gives him 6.77 (61 divided by nine) more wins bringing his total to 73.54 wins.
Now let's compare that total to what Jake Peavy has done for his career, most of which was with Padres. Peavy has won 102 games, but you can't credit him for the entire game because he averaged 6.77 innings (why is that number coming up so much?) pitched for those wins. So if you divide the 6.77 by 9 for the percentage of the game Peavy pitched, it comes to 75.185185 percent. Multiply that with the 102 wins and you get 76.68 wins.
Granted, this doesn't take anything into account on when Peavy pitched and didn't get a win and Hoffman when he pitched without getting a save or a win, but it does seem to give us the value of Hoffman's saves plus wins against Peavy's wins and Peavy's wins come out ahead. If Peavy finished his career tomorrow, nobody would talk about him being a Hall of Fame player despite his one Cy Young Award.
Just to be fair to Hoffman, let's do the same exercise for Mariano Rivera and A. J. Burnett. What? Bear with the Fan. Rivera's innings per appearance are enough over one-to-one to do more math. Rivera has averaged 1.176 innings pitched per appearance for his career. That comes to 13.1 percent of each game he pitched (rounding off the games to nine innings). If you multiply Rivera's 559 saves by that 13.1 percent, you get Mo 73 wins. You can then give Rivera credit for his 74 wins at a value of 1.75 innings pitched per win or 19.4 percent of a nine inning game. Multiply Rivera's 74 wins by 19.4 percent and you get 14.37 more wins for his total or 87.37 wins. That credited win total is higher than Peavy's (76.68) or Hoffman's (73.54).
Without boring you with the math again, A. J. Burnett's "adjusted" win total (ahem) comes to 85.77, a virtual tie with Rivera. NOBODY will ever argue that Burnett is a Hall of Fame player, but everyone will insist that Rivera is one.
The Fan doesn't know if this way at looking at the value of a closer's saves and wins holds any water. Frankly, the Fan's head hurts from doing all that math that may or may not make any sense. But even if you take the wins at face value and add it to one ninth of a win for each save, Hoffman would end up with a little over 127 career wins and Rivera would have won 158. Not too many pitchers have been voted to the Hall of Fame with that low a win total. Now where is that bottle of Ibuprofen?
Showing posts with label Trevor Hoffman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trevor Hoffman. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Torn on Trevor Hoffman's Legacy
Trevor Hoffman announced his retirement today and leaves the game as the all time saves leader with 601. With the announcement comes relief that the pitcher won't attempt another year after struggling so badly last year. The difficulty now is to figure out how Hoffman fits into the history of baseball. He is certainly revered by many and nobody else has ever done what he has done. But how important is that? That's the million dollar question.
Trevor Hoffman never started a single game in his career. All of his 1035 appearances were in relief. He not only holds the saves record but also the record for most games "finished" in a career with 856. Mariano Rivera may break the Saves record this year with a big season. That's great and all. But the Fan has heard so often about how little a save actually means. So then, what does Hoffman's career mean?
Not only did Hoffman never start a game, he never finished a season with more than 90 innings pitched. He averaged 72 innings pitched per season in his career. But for his last eight full seasons (not counting 2003 when he was hurt) his average was closer to 57 innings per year. If you take his total innings pitched and divide it by seven (a starting pitcher's game), it boils down to the equivalent of 155 starts, or five full seasons for that average starter.
Hoffman finished with a grand total of 30.7 in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Roy Halladay has accumulated 29.1 WAR in the last five years. How can you compare the two? Is the save an oddball stat? Would it be akin to holding the record for the most hit by pitches or sacrifice bunts? Or is saving a game more important than that? The Fan is still torn by the question. But both the gut and the brain seem to think that saving a game isn't much different than pitching a career of seventh innings just as well. Statistics show that any team over time will win 95.5% of its games when leading going into the ninth inning. But there are just as many others who believe that Mariano Rivera is the single most important figure in the Yankees run since 1996. The Fan doesn't.
Precedent has been set by the Hall of Fame .Sutter is in there and so are Eckersley, Gossage and Fingers. So the odds are certainly favorable that Hoffman will be elected to that grand body five or six years from now (or soon after). This Fan just can't quite justify it. Hoffman DID finish in the top five for Cy Young voting four times. He does finish with a career 9.4 K/9 rate and a 1.058 WHIP to go along with his 2.87 and career 141 ERA+. He did have eight seasons with 40 or more saves and one season where he hit 53. His three-year run from 1996 to 1998 was about as good as it will ever get for a closer.
Again, the Fan is simply confused by what it all means. At this point in time, Hoffman will be considered the second best closer ever (with Rivera everyone's favorite). But Billy Wagner might have been better. Then again, does that mean anything in the grand scheme of things with five seasons worth of innings pitched? Perhaps we just don't know yet. Perhaps someday some sabermetrician will figure out how to properly value closers. And that will be a godsend because as of right now, Hoffman's exploits were either overrated or under appreciated.
In either case, thanks for the memories, Mr. Hoffman. You are a class act.
Trevor Hoffman never started a single game in his career. All of his 1035 appearances were in relief. He not only holds the saves record but also the record for most games "finished" in a career with 856. Mariano Rivera may break the Saves record this year with a big season. That's great and all. But the Fan has heard so often about how little a save actually means. So then, what does Hoffman's career mean?
Not only did Hoffman never start a game, he never finished a season with more than 90 innings pitched. He averaged 72 innings pitched per season in his career. But for his last eight full seasons (not counting 2003 when he was hurt) his average was closer to 57 innings per year. If you take his total innings pitched and divide it by seven (a starting pitcher's game), it boils down to the equivalent of 155 starts, or five full seasons for that average starter.
Hoffman finished with a grand total of 30.7 in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Roy Halladay has accumulated 29.1 WAR in the last five years. How can you compare the two? Is the save an oddball stat? Would it be akin to holding the record for the most hit by pitches or sacrifice bunts? Or is saving a game more important than that? The Fan is still torn by the question. But both the gut and the brain seem to think that saving a game isn't much different than pitching a career of seventh innings just as well. Statistics show that any team over time will win 95.5% of its games when leading going into the ninth inning. But there are just as many others who believe that Mariano Rivera is the single most important figure in the Yankees run since 1996. The Fan doesn't.
Precedent has been set by the Hall of Fame .Sutter is in there and so are Eckersley, Gossage and Fingers. So the odds are certainly favorable that Hoffman will be elected to that grand body five or six years from now (or soon after). This Fan just can't quite justify it. Hoffman DID finish in the top five for Cy Young voting four times. He does finish with a career 9.4 K/9 rate and a 1.058 WHIP to go along with his 2.87 and career 141 ERA+. He did have eight seasons with 40 or more saves and one season where he hit 53. His three-year run from 1996 to 1998 was about as good as it will ever get for a closer.
Again, the Fan is simply confused by what it all means. At this point in time, Hoffman will be considered the second best closer ever (with Rivera everyone's favorite). But Billy Wagner might have been better. Then again, does that mean anything in the grand scheme of things with five seasons worth of innings pitched? Perhaps we just don't know yet. Perhaps someday some sabermetrician will figure out how to properly value closers. And that will be a godsend because as of right now, Hoffman's exploits were either overrated or under appreciated.
In either case, thanks for the memories, Mr. Hoffman. You are a class act.
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Trevor Hoffman Saves Number 600
Milestones! We love them in baseball, don't we? Our passion for them is unlike any other sport. A quarterback reaches 100 touchdown passes. So? But young pitcher like Felix Hernandez who notches his 100th win? Now that's big news. We had ourselves another milestone on Tuesday night as Trevor Hoffman picked up his 600th save. People say that anyone can save a ball game. It's just three outs in the grand scheme of things. But the Fan is looking around and nobody else has ever done what Hoffman just did. That, friends is a milestone.
Kudos to the Brewers for giving Hoffman the chance to get the milestone. For a while there, there seemed to be doubt that the Brewers were let Hoffman give it a go. Hoffman's season has been well chronicled. He's had a bad season by his standards. But really, he had two bad months. He's been decent since the end of May. He's been pretty darn decent since the end of May for a guy who is going to turn 43 in October. Hoffman
Trevor Hoffman was drafted 21 years ago. The Fan was a hardy young man back then. He was drafted by the Reds in the eleventh round. Hoffman was a shortstop back then like his older brother, Glenn Hoffman. The hitting thing wasn't happening for Trevor and his minor league manager suggested he try pitching. Without that suggestion, it's likely Hoffman wouldn't have had a major league career at all, never mind a seventeen year one.
The Fan never knew until researching this post that Trevor Hoffman made his MLB debut in 1993 for the Florida Marlins. That was the Marlins' first season and they picked up Hoffman in the expansion draft. He's the only player still playing from the Marlins' first season. Halfway through that season, the San Diego Padres were stripping themselves of all of their expensive (for them) players. The sell off was famous for a long time. Hoffman was part of the deal where he was sent to San Diego for Gary Sheffield. That's a pretty good guy to be traded for.
The Padres made Hoffman their closer in 1994 but the strike ended the season early and Hoffman finished his first season as the full time closer with 20 saves. He's been off an running ever since. Hoffman's best statistical seasons were from 1996 to 1999. He was nearly unhittable during that period and it was 1997 when he set the NL record for most saves in a season with 53.
There aren't too many people that would call Hoffman a power pitcher. He is more known for his change up. But in his younger days, he threw heat. Shoulder problems took away his velocity. Even so, in ten of Hoffman's seventeen seasons, he averaged over nine strikeouts per nine innings. In fact, his career K/9 is 9.4. That is very impressive over that long a time span.
Some of Hoffman's statistics:
Many like to compare Trevor Hoffman to Mariano Rivera, who most consider the best closer to ever live. But you can't short shrift Hoffman. It doesn't appear likely that Rivera will catch Hoffman's record total. In this Fan's opinion, Hoffman is a Hall of Fame career type of player. Congratulations to Trevor for save # 600 and to the Brewers for making it happen.
Kudos to the Brewers for giving Hoffman the chance to get the milestone. For a while there, there seemed to be doubt that the Brewers were let Hoffman give it a go. Hoffman's season has been well chronicled. He's had a bad season by his standards. But really, he had two bad months. He's been decent since the end of May. He's been pretty darn decent since the end of May for a guy who is going to turn 43 in October. Hoffman
Trevor Hoffman was drafted 21 years ago. The Fan was a hardy young man back then. He was drafted by the Reds in the eleventh round. Hoffman was a shortstop back then like his older brother, Glenn Hoffman. The hitting thing wasn't happening for Trevor and his minor league manager suggested he try pitching. Without that suggestion, it's likely Hoffman wouldn't have had a major league career at all, never mind a seventeen year one.
The Fan never knew until researching this post that Trevor Hoffman made his MLB debut in 1993 for the Florida Marlins. That was the Marlins' first season and they picked up Hoffman in the expansion draft. He's the only player still playing from the Marlins' first season. Halfway through that season, the San Diego Padres were stripping themselves of all of their expensive (for them) players. The sell off was famous for a long time. Hoffman was part of the deal where he was sent to San Diego for Gary Sheffield. That's a pretty good guy to be traded for.
The Padres made Hoffman their closer in 1994 but the strike ended the season early and Hoffman finished his first season as the full time closer with 20 saves. He's been off an running ever since. Hoffman's best statistical seasons were from 1996 to 1999. He was nearly unhittable during that period and it was 1997 when he set the NL record for most saves in a season with 53.
There aren't too many people that would call Hoffman a power pitcher. He is more known for his change up. But in his younger days, he threw heat. Shoulder problems took away his velocity. Even so, in ten of Hoffman's seventeen seasons, he averaged over nine strikeouts per nine innings. In fact, his career K/9 is 9.4. That is very impressive over that long a time span.
Some of Hoffman's statistics:
- 1032 games
- 853 games finished - a major league record.
- A career K/BB ratio of 3.69
- Over 40 saves nine times.
- A career WHIP of 1.060
- A career average of 7.0 hits per nine innings.
- A career average of 0.8 homers per nine innings
Many like to compare Trevor Hoffman to Mariano Rivera, who most consider the best closer to ever live. But you can't short shrift Hoffman. It doesn't appear likely that Rivera will catch Hoffman's record total. In this Fan's opinion, Hoffman is a Hall of Fame career type of player. Congratulations to Trevor for save # 600 and to the Brewers for making it happen.
Monday, August 02, 2010
Give Hoffman the Save Opportunities
The Milwaukee Brewers are not going to contend this year. There is no miracle coming. There is no hope. They are a second division team looking up at two stud teams who aren't going to falter. It's over for the Brewers. The only thing left to wonder about is how many losses they will end up with. With all that being said, why can't they put Trevor Hoffman back as the closer so he can get four more saves to reach 600?
Yeah, the Fan knows how the season started. It was all too painful to watch. The great Trevor Hoffman was getting smacked around. He gave up six early homers. His ERA was 13.00 at the end of April. Those facts are what they are. There is no getting around them. But he's been good of late. He's had six straight scoreless outings covering six innings of work. He has struck out seven batters in those six innings, given up no walks and has only given up three hits. Should the greatest Save machine in the history of baseball be limited to one measly Hold in those six appearances?
Look, we all understand that John Axford is the closer right now and of the future. But what does it matter at this point in the Brewers' season? They can't give Hoffman (who is making $7.5 million by the way) enough save opportunities to get to 600? The Fan is sure that Axford would understand.
Yeah, the Fan knows how the season started. It was all too painful to watch. The great Trevor Hoffman was getting smacked around. He gave up six early homers. His ERA was 13.00 at the end of April. Those facts are what they are. There is no getting around them. But he's been good of late. He's had six straight scoreless outings covering six innings of work. He has struck out seven batters in those six innings, given up no walks and has only given up three hits. Should the greatest Save machine in the history of baseball be limited to one measly Hold in those six appearances?
Look, we all understand that John Axford is the closer right now and of the future. But what does it matter at this point in the Brewers' season? They can't give Hoffman (who is making $7.5 million by the way) enough save opportunities to get to 600? The Fan is sure that Axford would understand.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
A Sad End for Hoffman?
When a pitcher is 43 years old, it's very difficult to state with any kind of certainty whether he is just in a slump or if his age has finally and mercilessly caught up with him. That is the dilemma for the Milwaukee Brewers as they contemplate the amazingly sad state of Trevor Hoffman's season to date. The all time leader in saves with a stunning 93% success rate is now three for seven this year in converting save opportunities.
The problem is that Hoffman was so good last year at age 42. He posted his best batting average against since 1999. He tied his second best WHIP for his career. He gave up two homers all year and only blew four saves. So the Brewers have to ask themselves is if one chronological year for a guy that is unprecedented can really make this much of a difference? How they answer this question determines whether he keeps getting the ball or not.
Right now, he cannot make it happen. He has given up a run in six of his nine outings. He has blown four saves already. He has given up six homers already. His WHIP is double his career average. Teams are batting .357 against him. His ERA is 13.00. The numbers boggle the mind. This is Trevor Hoffman we are talking about. It has to be a slump right? He couldn't have fallen off a cliff this fast, could he?
Last year's splits don't help us any. Hoffman had a better ERA in the second half than he had in the first half despite being perfect in April and May (he had a bumpy June). So last year gives no indication of what is happening this year.
That, of course, is little comfort to the brass in Milwaukee. The Brewers have little in their rotation. When they have a lead with that rotation at the end of the game, they have to get the win. Losing four games after being ahead when they gave the ball to Hoffman is unacceptable on every level no matter who the closer is.
With the hole the Brewers have dug (with Hoffman's help unfortunately), they have little chance in being a factor in the division. They have small odds at the wild card. So it really won't hurt them terribly to give Hoffman a few more weeks to see if he can bounce back. If he doesn't, it may be the end of a long and classy career.
The problem is that Hoffman was so good last year at age 42. He posted his best batting average against since 1999. He tied his second best WHIP for his career. He gave up two homers all year and only blew four saves. So the Brewers have to ask themselves is if one chronological year for a guy that is unprecedented can really make this much of a difference? How they answer this question determines whether he keeps getting the ball or not.
Right now, he cannot make it happen. He has given up a run in six of his nine outings. He has blown four saves already. He has given up six homers already. His WHIP is double his career average. Teams are batting .357 against him. His ERA is 13.00. The numbers boggle the mind. This is Trevor Hoffman we are talking about. It has to be a slump right? He couldn't have fallen off a cliff this fast, could he?
Last year's splits don't help us any. Hoffman had a better ERA in the second half than he had in the first half despite being perfect in April and May (he had a bumpy June). So last year gives no indication of what is happening this year.
That, of course, is little comfort to the brass in Milwaukee. The Brewers have little in their rotation. When they have a lead with that rotation at the end of the game, they have to get the win. Losing four games after being ahead when they gave the ball to Hoffman is unacceptable on every level no matter who the closer is.
With the hole the Brewers have dug (with Hoffman's help unfortunately), they have little chance in being a factor in the division. They have small odds at the wild card. So it really won't hurt them terribly to give Hoffman a few more weeks to see if he can bounce back. If he doesn't, it may be the end of a long and classy career.
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