Ryan Howard got his big pay day as he signed a three year deal worth $54 million. The signing continues the trend of signing core young players through their productive years thus avoiding early exits to free agency that happened in the past. According to Tom Verducci in "The Yankee Years," teams are able to do this with the $26 million they all receive from proceeds of MLB.com, MLB.tv and other on-line web deals the owners split evenly.
Howard, though he once again scored big in the traditional statistics like homers and RBIs, has some troubling statistics. His Batting Average has slipped three years in a row (.314, .268, .251). His On Base Percentage has slipped as well for three straight years: .425, .392, .339. And even his Slugging Percentage has slipped: .659, .584 and .543.
Howard also has some troubling splits. He is a .261 hitter at home with a .932 OPS but a .241 hitter on the road with a .832 OPS. He bats much better against right handed pitching with a .967 OPS and really suffers with left-handed pitching where he has a .745 OPS. Plus, he made 19 errors as a first baseman last year, which is hard to do.
Ryan Howard is another of those big boned players like Mo Vaughan, David Ortiz and others. Traditionally, these types of players only have an eight year window of good production. Howard is already 29 years old and this contract would take him through the age of 31. He has four years in so far, which should give him four more, so that is within the parameters of this contract.
Should we expect continuing dwindling numbers for Howard for the next few years? His trend is that way. The Phillies better hope that he doesn't. They are certainly risking a lot of money that his decline halts and he plays much where he is right now.
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