Another Chavez Ravine

Rob Neyer reported on ESPN.com that Eric Chavez is hurting again and that the A's have shut him down for a while. Mr. Neyer, like most of us, is not surprised by the news. Baseball Prospectus said it best, "...he's been living an episode of House." The news cements Chavez as Billy Beane's biggest mistake since Beane took over in Oakland.

PECOTA projections do not have feelings. It's just a computer program. Therefore, there is no "hoping" that Chavez will approach his old self again. The projections predict Chavez will barely scrape together 330 at bats and will not bat as high as .240 and will only hit eleven homers. The Fan thinks the A's will be fortunate to even get those numbers.

Chavez cost the A's $11 million last year and they are on the hook for at least that much this year. Since Chavez only had 95 official plate appearances, the player cost the A's about $116,000 per plate appearance. Or if you want to look at it by game, he cost the A's about $478,000 per game. That's more than a rookie makes for a whole year!

According to Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA, Chavez will be worth about one tenth of what he is making in 2009, even if he gets the 330 at bats they predict he will have. Consider that the third baseman's slugging percentage has slipped for six straight years. Or that his batting average has slipped for five straight years. Or that his gradual decline started in earnest in 2004. Hmm...Some might wonder about that timing, if you know what the Fan means...

Time will tell where Billy Beane ends up as far as historical reference. We know that his two biggest batting stars, Giambi and Tejada were juicers. We know that he never won a World Series. And we also know that his team ruined most of its young pitching talent over the years. Did any of the Mulders, Hudsons, Zitos, Hardens, etc., ever live up to the careers they seemed to have when they were with Oakland?

And now we have Chavez, the once heralded third baseman, who may never be a meaningful player again. If that statement comes true, it will be an $80 million albatross around Beane's legacy.