The Fan sure hates acting stupid. But stupid is what stupid is and has to be faced up to. The Fan has been reporting on Spring Training games and after reading back through a whole lot of them, doggonit if this writer hasn't fallen into the same trap as so many already have: Team records have no bearing on relational success into the regular season.
And yet, the Fan has viewed the Astro's, Tigers' and many other won-loss records this spring as a sign of things to come. But that is irrational thinking. Research has shown that a team's success or failure during Spring Training is irrelevant to their won-loss record during the regular season. Want proof? Sure. Check out this link.
Surely, the Fan should have intellectualized such a fact. But we are emotional and instinctive creatures and we are conditioned to view any baseball game as important to a team's overall success. In other words, it's important to win. George Steinbrenner was famous for getting upset if his Yankee teams fared poorly in Spring Training. He obviously fell into the trap as well.
And so the Fan admits his error. The games are exhibitions. Veteran players are rounding themselves into playing shape and youngsters and fringe veterans are scrambling to impress managers and GMs that they belong on the roster. With many players away in the WBC, the won-loss scenarios are even more skewed.
Spring Training games are a good way to get a bead on how specific players are looking to perform. We evaluate and try to predict how a team will fare based on how it measures and fills its roster. But until the games are played and are for real, then stating that the Astros are going to be terrible because they have only won one game all spring is an amateur mistake and one the Fan will try to avoid making again.
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