The Blue Jays have had a very good start to the season. This site has sung the praises of Cito Gaston (and rightly so) for the success they have had so far. But the feathers are starting to fly off the birds as they face a stretch against tough rivals. They lost two of three to the Yankees and were swept by the Red Sox.
Looking at the Blue Jays schedule so far, their impressive run differential might be explained by all the games they have played against the White Sox and Oakland and Baltimore and the Angels. It probably has worked both ways. Their patchwork rotation has seemingly held together but faced weak hitting teams in Chicago, Oakland and California. They also faced the Twins before-Mauer and Detroit before that team got rolling.
Along the way, their batters have faced really weak staffs in Oakland, Chicago, Cleveland, Minnesota and Baltimore. But they only scored three runs a game against the Yankees and four runs in three games against the Red Sox. Meanwhile, the Tallets, Cecils and Rays that have had success against those weak hitting teams are not winning against the tough Red Sox and Yankees.
The season is still unfolding, but the Blue Jays are moulting against tough competition, and that won't win them a division.