Friday, June 19, 2009

Is It Too Early to Think About .400 and Mauer?

The Fan has resigned himself to the fact that he would never see a .400 hitter in his lifetime. Rod Carew came close once. Gwynn flirted with it. George Brett came close once. But nobody has really given it a good run. Joe Mauer has come back from a mysterious back ailment after a mysterious surgery to lead the world in batting. Mauer has always been a good hitter, but he's been out of his mind. Is it too early to start thinking about .400?

The Twins have 93 games left. Mauer figures to play in 90% of them or roughly 84 games. If he averages 4.5 at bats a game, he'll have about 378 at bats. Mauer sits at 68 for 160 for an unbelievable .425 average. If the previous projections are close, then he will end up with 538 at bats. To hit .400, he will need to have 215 hits in those 538 at bats. That means he will need to have 147 hits in his next 378 at bats. That's a .388 average. Hmm... That doesn't seem likely.

Okay, so what if he only averages four at bats a game instead of 4.5 because he will walk a lot. Then he'll end up with 496 at bats. To end up at .400, he'll need 196 hits. Which means, he'll have to go 128 for 336, or bat .381 the rest of the way. Ugh. That doesn't seem doable either.

Okay, let's go by his current at bats per game. He has 160 at bats in 43 games which works out to 3.72 at bats per game. Multiply that by 84 and you get roughly 313 at bats which will give him a total of 473 at bats (with his walks, he will easily qualify for the batting title). To bat .400 with 473 at bats, he'll need 189 hits. So he'll have to go 121 for 313 or bat .386 the rest of the season.

It looks like the Fan is resigned to never see a .400 batter in his lifetime.


Josh Borenstein said...

Won't happen. Don't get me wrong. He's a great hitter. Just not THAT great a hitter. The Metrodome gives him more hits because of the playing surface (he's hitting over .500 there this year), but it helps if you can leg out infield hits.

eyebleaf said...

Will be tough, but I'm rooting for him.