Sunday, April 28, 2013

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: April 28, 2013

The week's comeback is complete. After a disastrous 15-27 start to the week, the picks then went 36-19 the rest of the week to finish in the black after a 10-5 day yesterday.

The day had trouble getting started as the Tigers beat the Braves again. I guess it is official that Kris Medlen has regressed to the mean. The Orioles beat the A's again as A.J. Griffin lost for the first time in his career at home. And the Twins took care of Derek Holland and the Rangers which was a surprise. I did not get the Marlins win I had expected, but Giancarlo Stanton hit his first homer of the year and boy was it a bomb.

There are sixteen games on the schedule today as the Indians and Royals make up a game as part of a double-header. Sunday is easily the best baseball day of the week. Here are the picks:

  • The Yankees over the Blue Jays: As surprising and good a season as the Yankees have had so far, they have had trouble completing sweeps. The Blue Jays are such a down team right now. I still believe they will bounce back, but until they do, it is hard to pick them. Phil Hughes over R.A. Dickey.
  • The Marlins over the Cubs: Sure. Maybe I was just a day too early. Stanton is going to get hot now. He did the same thing last year. The exact same thing. Ricky Nolasco over Carlos Villanueva. Nolasco better be good because Villanueva has been dealing this season.
  • The Phillies over the Mets: Is Cole Hamels this year's Cliff Lee in that he cannot buy a win? Jonathon Niese is good at home, so Hamels will have to be at the top of his game. But his left arm should neutralize Duda and Davis at least.
  • The Reds over the Nationals: The Reds avoid the sweep here behind Tony Cingrani, who has been terrific thus far. I also like that he is left-handed against this Nats' lineup. Ross Detwiler will keep the Nationals in the game though. This one could go either way.
  • The Red Sox over the Astros: Ugh. This one is tough. John Lackey is back from the DL and I do not expect him to pitch well or last long. But the Astros have never won at Fenway. The Red Sox lineup is hot. They are at home. I just cannot predict an Astros win.
  • The Royals over the Indians: The Indians are off to a bad, bad start. The Royals are above .500. Justin Masterson started the season great but has faltered a bit. Jeremy Guthrie has been terrific for the Royals. The Royals win the first game.
  • The Rangers over the Twins: This pick is a complete distrust of Kevin Correia. Yeah, "Chick" is capable of a good game now and then when his batted balls against end up in someone's glove. But I cannot pick him. Alexi Ogando for the win.
  • The Cardinals over the Pirates: Here is what the Cardinal manager should do. The previous day's starter should be the closer the next day. That way, only starting pitchers are pitching and none of those bullpen guys are. Makes sense right? And yes, I know who the Cardinal manager is. I simply did not want to look up how to spell Methany or whatever it is. Trevor Miller over Jeff Locke.
  • The Orioles over the Athletics: I struggled big time with this one. Every time I pick against Bartolo Colon, he wins. But these Orioles are really good and are not going away any time soon. Miguel Gonzalez might be the weakest link in the Orioles' rotation. But the A's are struggling on offense too.
  • The Mariners over the Angels: I have a lot of trust in Hisashi Iwakuma, especially at home. Jason Vargas returns to his roots for the Angels and that might mean a good game for him too. A low scoring game means a bullpen game and the Mariners have the edge over the Angels there.
  • The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: I really think the D-Backs should separate Patrick Corbin (who pitches today) from Wade Miley (who pitched yesterday) as they are too similar. Two days in a row with basically the same pitcher gives the other team time to adjust eventually. But I still like Corbin in this one at home against Jon Garland. Garland has been a nice comeback story thus far so it is hard to root against him.
  • The Dodgers over the Brewers: Clayton Kershaw has not been as dominant in his last three starts, but he is definitely the choice at home. Kyle Lohse will keep the Brewers in the game but he cannot match Kershaw in zeroes.
  • The Giants over the Padres: As long as the game does not go into extra innings, we are good here. The Giants do not do extra innings well. Jason Marquis does not inspire me. Neither does Ryan Vogelsong if truth be told. The Giants are the better team.
  • The Tigers over the Braves: Okay. I give up picking the Braves in this series. Which almost guarantees they will win today. Doug Fister over Mike Minor.
  • The Indians over the Royals: Here is some fun for you all. Every time I read Corey Kluber's name in my head, it sounds just like the chef on the Muppets. Try it. Picture that chef's voice and say the name in your head a few times. There it is, right? Anyway, the Indians have to win one of these games. The Caucasian Will Smith pitches for the Royals.

And the Game of the Day!

  • The Bay Rays over the White Sox: The White Sox are a black hole to me for some reason. I bet that I could not even name most of their lineup. I do know the Bay Rays' lineup and it is flawed. But David Price is hard to pick against even though Dylan Axelrod has been pretty good for the White Sox.

Yesterday: 10-5
Last week: 51-46
Month: 203-148
Games of the Day: 19-8

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