Saturday, May 04, 2013

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: May 4, 2013

The month of May has not been kind to this old game picker. For every brilliant pick like A.J. Burnett shutting down the Nationals, there is the Mets beating the Braves because all-world closer, Craig Kimbrel could not save a game. And who would ever expect that the Red Sox, Yankees and Orioles would all be shut out?

The weather has really been frustrating too. The Royals were washed out again and they were the Game of the Day and they could have been the tie breaker for the day too. Ah well. That is the way it goes.

Here are Saturday's picks:

  • The Reds over the Cubs: As much as I love Jeff Samardzija, he is up against Tony Cingrani, who is making the Major Leagues look easy so far. And even if these two hot pitchers cancel each other out, the advantage goes to the Reds because of their bullpen, which is so much better than the Cubs' bullpen.
  • The Twins over the Indians: I keep picking against Kevin Correia but "Chick" keeps winning. I would not expect him to beat the Indians except that Scott Kazmir is pitching is pitching for the Indians. And in this case, jazz is better than Led Zeppelin.
  • The Yankees over the Athletics: Yes, Shrek (Bartolo Colon) is back in Yankee Stadium and yes, Yankee Stadium means a homer or two off of Phil Hughes. But if Hughes can keep those to being solo homers, the Yankees win this one at home.
  • The Mariners over the Blue Jays: I am really feeling for the Blue Jays fans. This was going to be the year. I predicted it. You predicted it. Instead, ennui. And they face a weak team like Seattle and face the two hottest pitchers right now in Hernandez and today, Hisashi Iwakuma. R.A. Dickey is not feeling good and his velocity is down.
  • The Angels over the Orioles: So I look at the pitching line on this one and see the name, "Garcia," listed for the Orioles. So I thing, "Who is that?" So I click on the name and it says, "Freddy Garcia." Freddy! The Chief is back! Oh. But the Chief is back. The Angels win behind Tommy Hanson.
  • The Cardinals over the Brewers: I was thinking about picking Yovani Gallardo in this one, especially since he is home and has his home run stroke back. But then I looked at some statistics (you thought I just winged this, didn't you). And Gallardo has faced the Cardinals fifteen times in his career. He has won one of those games. His has lost ten of them. His ERA in those games is close to seven. Yes, this pick is for Adam Wainwright.
  • The Nationals over the Pirates: I am very worried about Stephen Strasburg. I do not want him to be hurt. But neither do I want to see him keep losing either. Jeff Locke has won a surprising number of his starts so far, which is a concern.
  • The Phillies over the Marlins: Jose Fernandez's starts are beginning to have diminishing returns. His outings are getting shorter and his success less. It was fun for one start though. Meanwhile, Cole Hamels is starting to pitch like Cole Hamels.
  • The Royals over the White Sox: It is surprising that the teams would not play a double-header today to try to make up some of these games. But why do something today that you could put off until later, right? The pitching line is the same with Jeremy Guthrie versus Dylan Axelrod. You would have thought the White Sox would skip Axelrod.
  • The Braves over the Mets: The Braves have now lost two in a row and they are too good of a team to make it three even if Julio Teheran is pitching. Jonathon Niese always seems better than his results and when he does pitch well, the Mets do not score. And let's face it, Craig Kimbrel is too good to keep blowing saves.
  • The Rangers over the Red Sox: The Red Sox got a nice outing out of John Lackey last time and that was encouraging for them. But my feeling here is that Alexi Ogando shuts them down today at home. The Rangers will score three or more against Lackey.
  • The Rays over the Rockies: As thought, Matt Moore was not as effective in the thin Denver air yesterday and the Rays still won the game. David Price will have the same kind of day and still win. Power pitching is the ticket at Coors. Jon Garland has been a nice story for the Rockies this year though.
  • The Diamondbacks over the Padres: The D-Backs have lost three straight and have not look good doing so. I guess they need to scrap a little harder. Patrick Corbin is a nice looking young pitcher but I still think the D-Backs need to separate him from Miley in the rotation since they are so similar. Anyway, going with Corbin over Clayton Richard who is pretty decent at his home park.
  • The Dodgers over the Giants: Matt Magill had a nice first start for the Dodgers last time. If he can repeat it, the Dodgers should score a few off of Ryan Vogelsong. The only problem is that the Giants always seem to win these games somehow. They really are a remarkable team.

And the Game of the Day!

  • The Tigers over the Astros: The Astros have their best pitcher, Lucas Harrell, going in this one, but there is no way the Astros hit Max Scherzer. Heck, do not be surprised if Scherzer ties the record with 20 strikeouts in this one.

Yesterday: 7-7
Week: 43-37
Month: 16-21
Season: 246-185
Games of the Day: 23-9

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