Wednesday, May 14, 2014

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: May 14, 2014

I am back on the 8-7 train again. When it comes to full schedule days, that is four straight such finishes. The Game of the Day pick was wrong again. And Stephen Strasburg lost again. And Cliff Lee lost again and the entire thing is starting to make me cranky. Oh wait. The Yankees have already made me cranky.

Wednesday's picks:
  • The Tigers over the Orioles: On the Tigers' side, you have an established ace (Justin Verlander). On the Orioles' side, you have a prospective ace in Kevin Gausman. It seems more prudent to pick the established one.
  • The Angels over the Phillies: My problem with this pick is that you never know what A.J. Burnett is going to do. He can be the crappiest pitcher in the world, or the best one. And that is week to week! Garrett Richards has been the bomb thus far though.
  • The Royals over the Rockies: The Rockies are going to have to hit on the road someday to quiet the skeptics. This road trip, they have not--at least recently. Jason Vargas over Jhoulys Chacin.
  • The Athletics over the White Sox: I usually pick against Tommy Milone, but he won last time out. I usually pick against Andre Rienzo and he hasn't lost a game yet. So one of my usual wrong picks has to be right in this one. Okay, that confused even me.
  • The Mariners over the Rays: Brandon Maurer has a 1.67 WHIP. Jake Odorizzi has a 1.74 WHIP. Ugh. They are both terrible. The only recourse then is to pick the home team and rub a rabbit's foot.
  • The Diamondbacks over the Nationals: Brandon McCarthy has some pretty impressive peripherals for a guy with a 1-6 record. His strikeout to walk rate is 4.5. That's very good. And his WHIP isn't bad at 1.38. But he did have a real clunker in his last outing. The problem is that Doug Fister still looked awful rusty in his first start of the year last time out.
  • The Giants over the Braves: Let's be honest, I have no idea who is going to win this game. How do you pick between Madison Bumgarner and Julio Teheran if both are at the top of their game? Again, defaulting to the home team when all other logic fails.
  • The Indians over the Blue Jays: Dustin McGowan has pitched pretty well in his last three starts, but I'm still not buying. I much prefer Corey Kluber here. The Blue Jays are hitting really well though.
  • The Yankees over the Mets: I don't know if the Yankees are ever going to beat the Mets. But if they are, having Masahiro Tanaka on the mound is their best chance. He will be challenged by the Major League Debut of Rafael Montero and the Yankees struggle against power pitchers. Oh boy.
  • The Reds over the Padres: Both Ian Kennedy and Johnny Cueto have been pitching super well. And that should continue in San Diego. But I still have more faith in Cueto and in the Reds' offense than the other way around.
  • The Brewers over the Pirates: I keep picking Francisco Liriano like he is last year's version. But he isn't. He is this year's version and 2012's version and 2011's version, etc. On the other hand, Wily Peralta seems to be getting better and better.
  • The Astros over the Rangers: This pick is dependent on how well Scott Feldman pitches for the Astros. I like the Astros' chances to score against Nick Tepesch in a teapot. But if Feldman isn't good, it will be a slugfest and the Rangers would hold sway.
  • The Cardinals over the Cubs: Maybe last night's extra-inning win put the curse away for the Cards against the Cubs.  I do like the way Jason Hammel is pitching for the Chicago team though. Michael Wacha needs to have a good night.
  • The Dodgers over the Marlins: I hate to pick Paul Maholm. I really do. But I generally don't like to pick pitchers making their Major League debuts. Anthony DeSclafani is from New Jersey and pitches for Miami. That is so historically anomalous. If you were here with me, I would be doing my best New Jersey accent (I grew up there) saying, "ANTony DeSlafani, how yooo doooin?" DeSlafani has shown very good control in the minors and I like that.
And the Game of the Day
  • The Red Sox over the Twins: The Red Sox pushed Felix Doubront back a day and that makes sense as he will now match up with the squishy Kevin Correia. Of course doing so meant pushing Jake Peavy ahead last night and that did not work out so well.
Yesterday: 8-7, May: 98-84, Games of the Day: 18-22, Season: 331-256


forged said...

For a few years, I have had a conjecture on the Coors Field effect on the Rockies.

Coors Field is a beautiful ballpark. However, it seems to be that breaking balls move less at Coors Field. This has some obvious effects and some not so obvious effects.

The non-obvious effect is that pitchers that aren't used to that, tend to overthrow while pitching at Coors Field.

The obvious effect is that it tends to be easier to hit at Coors Field and not just because the size of the field.

The Rockies offense after a long homestand is pretty used to breaking balls not having as much movement. So when the go on a road trip afterwards, they tend to have their offense disappear because they don't catch up to the breaking balls when they go back to normal movement.

After being on the road for a while, they tend to get it sorted out and start hitting toward the end of a road trip. Then they get back to Coors Field and hit better because they are seeing less movement from breaking balls.

This tends to cycle throughout their seasons. A lot people blame the road offensive woes on the Coors Field being such a large field, but I'm guessing that they actually have a balls put in play split between home and away that is large.

Anyway, that's been my conjecture to-date on what leads to the road offensive woes that the Rockies seem to annually experience.

William Tasker - Caribou, ME said...

Good stuff, forged. Thanks!