Were We Watching Two Hall Of Fame Pitchers In Sabathia and Greinke?

Last night we watched CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke pitch a very competitive game as the Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the New York Yankees, 3-1. Sabathia gave up only two runs in 5.1 innings and notched his 3,000th strikeout against John Ryan Murphy, a catcher he used to throw to when Murphy was with the Yankees. Greinke, meanwhile, pitched 7.2 strong innings against an albeit depleted Yankee lineup and won his fifth game in six decisions. The Diamondbacks are 6-1 when Greinke pitches. Did we witness a future Hall Of Fame match up?

For better or worse, Roy Halladay's inclusion in the Hall of Fame on top of that of Jack Morris has changed the equation a bit with starting pitchers. Morris, we will not discuss at all as his inclusion was ridiculous. Halladay was one of the first "modern" pitchers voted into the Hall with the new emphasis of shorter outings, pitch counts and heavy bullpen usage--though Pedro Martinez and Mike Mussina could also be in that conversation.

Halladay finished with a Wins Above Replacement total of 64.5 (baseball-reference.com) or 65.4 (fangraphs.com). According to JAWS, he is the 43rd best starting pitcher of all time. Halladay finished with a 203 wins, a .659 Winning Percentage, a 3.39 career FIP and 2117 strikeouts. He won two Cy Young Awards and finished in the top five in that award five other times.

If Roy Halladay is our new bottom standard for Hall of Fame pitchers (no disrespect meant), then where do CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke stand? Let's start with Greinke as he seems to have a more solid argument.

Zack Greinke has two more years on his contract and is 35-years-old. At his current rate of productivity, he will add a bit to his resume. Greinke currently has compiled 66.9 career WAR (Fangraphs.com lists him more than ten wins lower!) and JAWS considers him the 47th best pitcher of all time. He won his 192nd game yesterday, good for a .617 winning percentage. He has a 3.40 career FIP and 2,481 strikeouts. He was won Cy Young Award and was screwed out of another and has finished in the top five as recently as two years ago.

Greinke is also one of the best fielding pitchers of his generation and arguably his generation's best hitting pitcher. It can easily be speculated that Greinke will finish with near 210 wins, 2,600 strikeouts and 68-70 WAR.

CC Sabathia is in his last season. Whatever he compiles this season will be it. And with the Yankees' quick bullpen trigger, Sabathia does not get the chance to pile up a lot of decisions. He made 29 starts last year and only figured in 16 decisions (Greinke figured in 26 decisions in his 33 starts). Sabathia currently has Wins Over Replacement totals of 63.2 (b-ref) and 66.4 (fWAR). Sabathia has 247 wins and should go over the 250 mark by season's end. And, as stated, he reached 3,000 strikeouts last night. Sabathia has a .616 winning percentage and should not finish under .614 even if things go flooey. Sabathia used to be a good hitter but has not had a hit since 2009 and is laughably one of the worst fielding pitchers of his generation.

JAWS considers Sabathia the 68th best starting pitcher of all time. But, he is also only the third left-handed pitcher to record 3,000 strikeouts and the last pitcher to compile ten complete games in a season AND 250 innings.

Roy Halladay had big moments in the post season. Who can ever forget that perfect game? Greinke and Sabathia have been okay in the post season but not great.

Personally, Zack Greinke is a lock. Since he left the Kansas City Royals after 2011, he has won over 70% of his decisions. That is still an important statistic to me. He has been effective even for teams who play in hitters' parks like Milwaukee and Arizona. I believe him to be one of the most underrated pitchers of his generation.

CC Sabathia will be an interesting case. The 3,000 strikeouts are impressive. The legend of what he did that season for Milwaukee will never grow old in the telling. He might just be the last pitcher to win 250 games. Pitching for the Yankees will be a blessing and a curse for his case. I think he is on the bubble which might get blown in after all is said and done.

Personally, if I had a vote, I would vote Sabathia, Greinke and Justin Verlander into the Hall of Fame. Time will tell how the voters really feel about the trio. All three are at least better than Jack Morris.

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: June 18, 2015

Another 10-5 day with another Pick of the Day incorrect! Doggone it! Talk about going 29-15 the last three days and not being able to enjoy it! How could Clayton Kershaw lose on me! Oh well. Those are the breaks.

Friday's Picks:

• The Orioles over the Phillies: The Phillies have a chance in this one as Bud Norris has not been pitching well. But even if this is a high scoring game, I expect the Orioles to win it. Sean O'Sullivan goes for the Phils.
• The Cardinals over the Twins: The Twins finally won last night but have been in a tailspin. They face Jaime Garcia who has been pitching great. Mike Pelfrey will probably not fare well here.
• The Rockies over the Astros: The last few times I've picked Collin McHugh, he has let me down. I will probably turn him around by picking against him. Heh. David Hale goes for the Rockies.
• The Athletics over the Padres: Unless the A's blew their wad last night in scoring all those runs, they should win this one. Kendall Graveman has been pitching well and is opposed by Ian Kennedy.
• The Diamondbacks over the Angels: I had a feeling that Allen Webster would thrive outside of Boston. And I could be right. I am picking him tonight over C.J. Wilson.
• The Yankees over the Marlins: I am probably a fool for picking the Yanks in a game that CC Sabathia starts. But Dan Jennings did not inspire me with his managerial moves last night. How can you not pinch hit for that catcher last night!? Mat Latos goes for the Fish.
• The Rays over the Nationals: The Nats are one big confusing team to me this year. Doug Fister is back from the DL. But I don't trust that. Besides Chris Archer is going for the Rays and expecting them to lose is futile these days.
• The Braves over the Red Sox: So yeah, the Red Sox were supposed to be pretty good and the Braves were supposed to be really bad this year. How has that worked out so far? Shelby Miller over Clay Buchholz.
• The Indians over the Cubs: You know...I am really over the position player pitching thing. Teams have never carried more pitchers than they do these days. There should never be a reason to put position players on the mound. It's ridiculous. Anyway, Danny Salazar over Jason Hammel.
• The Tigers over the Reds: Justin Verlander looked good in his first start. He had is velocity back too. He should go deeper into this game making it easier for me to take him over Mike Leake.
• The Royals over the Brewers: The Royals are simply the better team here and that makes me pick them even though Jeremy Guthrie is pitching for them. Jimmy Nelson goes for the Brewers.
• The Pirates over the White Sox: The White Sox are losing regularly these days and Jeff Samardzija is not getting much help. He won't tonight either with Gerrit Cole going for the Pirates.
• The Mariners over the Giants: The Mariners aren't getting much for offense. But if they pitch, they have a chance. I like Mike Montgomery a lot. So he is the pick over Ryan Vogelsong.
• The Dodgers over the Rangers: I'm still smarting from last night with this pick. The only thing having me pick against the very hot Rangers is that they are starting Anthony Ranaudo. Zack Greinke goes for the Dodgers.

And the Pick of the Day (come on now!)

• The Blue Jays over the Mets: I have a sick feeling that the Blue Jays offense is going to whack Bartolo Colon into submission. R.A. Dickey is usually just fine at home in the dome.

Yesterday: 10-5, June: 126-110, Season: 504-459, Picks of the Day: 37-34

MLB Game Picks - Friday: October 3, 2014

The two home teams in the ALDS had completely opposite days. The Orioles romped and the Angels lost to a gritty Royals team that knows how to play those close games. The results gave me a 1-1 day picking. At least I finally got my first correct pick of the post season.

Of course it was the extra-inning game that got me yesterday. And the home loss puts the Angels in a bind. Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton went a combined 0-13 in the game. There is no way the Angels win if that continues.

Today is playoff nirvana with four games. If you were so inclined, you could watch all four games from noon today (Eastern Time) through after midnight. It should be a fun day.

The picks:

• The Orioles over the Tigers: Again, there is something about this Orioles team. They just seem to have it, if you know what I mean. Justin Verlander is no longer the top dog on the Tigers' rotation and the Orioles already beat the top dog. Wei-Yin Chen is the wild card here. How he pitches will depend on how the game goes. I'm going Orioles.
• The Nationals over the Giants: Stephen Strasburg worries me. How will he pitch today? But Jake Peavy scares me more. The odds of the Nationals' lineup getting to Peavy seem greater in this case. Peavy has been here before, however, and Strasburg has not.
• The Dodgers over the Cardinals: What a great match-up this is (on paper). Clayton Kershaw versus Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has been through this a half dozen times and knows what he has to do. Kershaw has had one crack at it and did not do well. But head to head, you've got to believe that Kershaw completely shuts down the Cardinals while Wainwright begrudgingly gives up a two-spot.
• The Angels over the Royals: Nothing like picking only home teams, there, William. How has that worked out for you so far? Not very good. I worry more about Yordano Ventura than I do Matt Shoemaker. But the worry for Shoemaker is his health. He didn't pitch the last couple of weeks and who knows how effective he will be. If this was the Matt Shoemaker that was on the roll for July and August, I would not hesitate. Now there is much hesitation.

Yesterday: 1-1, Post Season: 1-3, Season: 1366-1093

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: September 24, 2014

Five picks from yesterday were incorrect. I had hoped the Yankees would run it and at least give themselves a chance. But their old RISP problem cropped up again and sank them and probably their season for good. The Mariners got pounded. I really thought Felix Hernandez would be better. He had nothing.

I had the Padres and the Rockies wrong. I had the Diamondbacks and the Twins wrong. Good old Kyle Gibson did me in again with his bamboozle balls. And finally, I thought the A's would beat the Angels with so much on the line and Sonny Gray on the mound. But Wade LeBlanc of all people shut them down which just goes to show how badly the A's are hitting.

So those were the bum picks. But speaking of Bums, I did get the Dodgers and Greinke over Bumgarner. I did get the Cubs over the Cards and those were two pretty good picks.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Orioles over the Yankees: The Orioles simply have too much offense for someone like Shane Greene. Buck Showalter shows no letup and is managing each game for the win (which he should). Bud Norris will benefit from the offensive support.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: Justin Verlander is finishing the season strong and he will have to here as the Tigers face Chris Sale. The Tigers are far from clinching the division and have to keep winning.
• The Twins of the Diamondbacks: The D-backs are fighting for the top draft pick, which is about the only positive thing you can say to their season. Vidal Nuno has not won a game for them yet. Phil Hughes should dominate.
• The Athletics over the Angels: This pick did not work out yesterday even though Pujols and Trout and combined oh-fers with five strikeouts between them. Jon Lester is the difference maker, however, and Hector Santiago will keep the Angels in the game.
• The Nationals over the Mets: Gio Gonzalez has won three of his last four starts and is the only reason I am picking the Nats. Gonzalez is going to want one more strong start to see if he can get himself in the playoff rotation. Dillon Gee won't make it easy for him.
• The Mariners over the Blue Jays: Taijuan Walker will try to do what Paxton and King Felix have not been able to do: Stop the Blue Jays' offense. Their own offense has a chance at least against Mark Buehrle.
• The Royals over the Indians: The Royals are playing well down the stretch. They have taken over the wild card lead and still want to run down the Tigers. Jason Vargas is not the guy I want on the mound, but I will pick him over Trevor Bauer.
• The Reds over the Brewers: The Brewers fall from grace is complete. They looked so good in the first half of the season and then pfffttt. I'm taking Danny Corcino over Kyle Lohse. That's how bad the season has ended.
• The Marlins over the Phillies: I have no idea which team will win this game. I don't think I have gotten a Kyle Kendrick game pick correct all season. Brad Hand is not a favored pick. Whatever...
• The Pirates over the Braves: The Pirates can rest easy except they would like to play the wild card game-off at home. Jeff Locke has been good down the stretch and Julio Teheran will hope his team scores something...anything.
• The Rays over the Red Sox: I hope the Red Sox keep playing Cecchini. He is my favorite prospect and I see another Wade Boggs in him. But that is the only reason to watch the Red Sox these days. Jake Odorizzi over Anthony Ranaudo.
• The Rangers over the Astros: The Rangers have totally blown their first round pick status with this hot streak. Lisalverto Bonilla hasn't exactly been gangbusters, but he keeps winning. Scott Feldman will pitch for the Astros. Meh.
• The Cubs over the Cardinals: The Cardinals seem determined to keep this interesting right up to the end. Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta has looked terrific and John Lackey throws better tantrums than fastballs these days.
• The Padres over the Rockies: This pick did not work out yesterday and today's pitching line is messy. Joe Wieland is the definition of a 4-A pitcher (no offense) and Yohan Flande has not been impressive.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Giants: What better way for the Dodgers to clinch the division over the rivals than for it to be Clayton Kershaw. Put a cap on your season, bud. Tim Hudson should probably retire.

Yesterday: 10-5, Sept.: 190-128, Games of the Day: 101-65 (+1), Season: 1320-1062

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: September 14, 2014

Yesterday I was complaining because of having two great days but having the Game of the Day feature come up empty. I should have kept my mouth shut. I got the Game of the Day feature correct (the Cardinals hung on to win) but had a crappy day overall. I think the great day / bad Game of the Day is preferable.

How about Mike Trout with two big flies? How about Zack Greinke with a double an a homer? Tim Hudson and Tim Lincecum have both had great success pitching in the Major Leagues. The Dodgers destroyed them both. Hudson's string of winning seasons is surely going to be ended now.

I didn't think the Twins could lose another double-header. I was wrong. King Felix was not clutch as he gave up the game-tying homer to Josh Donaldson and the A's eventually won a game the Mariners had to have. I have no idea what Fernando Rodney was doing in the tenth, but needless to say, he did not shoot any arrows. The Yankees did their patented "score-early-and-then-die" offense but still hung on two win. That bullpen is terrific. The Blue Jays beat the Rays in the battle of the Ays. I got all those games wrong.

Here we go, Sunday, treat me right:

• The Blue Jays over the Rays: This is a scary pick because you never know with Mark Buehrle. But he has been on one of his good streaks again and Chris Archer has not been as effective in the last month or so. The Blue Jays at home.
• The Tigers over the Indians: Justin Verlander is no longer an ace. But he can still be good enough to beat the Indians at home. Trevor Bauer simply doesn't do much for me at any time--even less today.
• The Nationals over the Mets: Again, I like Jon Niese. I like him a lot. The Nationals are just too hot at the plate right now and Jordan Zimmermann really shouldn't have any trouble with the Mets' lineup.
• The Pirates over the Cubs: This pick did not work out yesterday, which was a huge shock to me. Edinson Volquez needs to come up big. Jacob Turner is starting to turn it around for the Cubs. Scary pick.
• The Marlins over the Phillies: This is another pick that did not work out yesterday. It is another pitching match-up that makes me go this way. Tom Koehler is a better pick than David Buchanan. The Marlins' offense is pretty dead without Stanton though.
• The Red Sox over the Royals: I just like Joe Kelly. Is that okay? Jason Vargas would not survive the Boston lineup in the past, but this is a different Boston lineup. In other words, it's not any good. But I'm still going with Joe Kelly.
• The Reds over the Brewers: I will admit that I have no idea which team will win this game. Mike Leake is so unpredictable and Matt Garza can look so ugly at times that I have no idea. None.
• The White Sox over the Twins: Who would have ever thought three months ago that I would be picking Hector Noesi to win a game? How strange is baseball. But there it is. I like him over Trevor May.
• The Cardinals over the Rockies: I have no delusions of Marco Gonzalez pitching great for the Cardinals. The pick is based on the belief that the Cardinals will score eight runs on Jordan Lyles and company.
• The Rangers over the Braves: The Braves are terrible now. They simply don't win very often. I don't know, frankly, how they have won 75 games. Colby Lewis over Mike Minor. Of course, I said all that and the Braves will win...
• The Angels over the Astros: I think it is going to be the Orioles and the Angels in the ALCS and that's going to be a great series. The Angels just don't lose these days no matter if Hector Santiago or anyone else is pitching. Dallas Keuchel will try to stop the streak. Good luck, young man.
• The Dodgers over the Giants: After scoring 17 runs yesterday, I'm not sure the Dodgers are all tuckered out or not. I do know that Yusmeiro Petit might give the Dodgers problems. But would you ever pick against Clayton Kershaw? No, me neither.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: If I keep picking the Padres, they have to win sooner or later, right? I'm not thrilled with picking Odrisamer Despaigne in Arizona's hot air, but Trevor Cahill is even more of an uncomfortable pick.
• The Orioles over the Yankees: I hate Sunday night games. They are un-American, especially when the game doesn't even start until an hour after the two teams usually start night games. Chris Tillman over Hiroki Kuroda.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Athletics over the Mariners: The Mariners had their chance yesterday and didn't get it done. Both teams are still challenged offensively. But you have to go with Jon Lester over Chris Young in this one. Young was a nice story for most of the year, but if you pin your playoff hopes on him, I don't know...

Yesterday: 7-9, Sept.: 105-74, Games of the Day: 93-63 (+1), Season: 1235-1008

MLB Game Picks - Monday: September 8, 2014

My success of Saturday was short lived and Sunday thumped me with another sub-par day. Pitchers I should have counted on and did not: R.A. Dickey, Franklin Morales, Yordano Ventura, Brad Hand and Derek Holland. Pitchers I counted on and should not have: Cole Hamels, Tyson Ross, Ryan Cook and Tim Hudson.

That above pretty much sums up what went wrong yesterday. One thing that has gone well for quite a while now is the Game of the Day feature. Each day I pick a game I feel the most strongly about that is as much of a sure thing as you get in baseball. When I went on vacation at the end of June, that feature was unbelievably six games under .500. Here it is two months and change later and that feature is thirty games over.

Oh, and Nelson Cruz had a pretty good day yesterday, eh?

Monday's picks:

• The Indians over the Angels: I think I have mentioned it to the point of being sick of myself that the Indians are very good at home. And Danny Salazar has started to become brilliant again after a long absence of such. That combination should be enough to defeat Jered Weaver and the Angels.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Miguel Cabrera has gotten hot even if he can't even trot. Ha! The Tigers always seem to find a way to get back on top. I would personally love to see the Royals change things up and win the division. But I will believe it when I see it. Justin Verlander over Jeremy Guthrie.
• The Nationals over the Braves: Who scares you right now in the Braves' lineup? Nobody, right? They got zipped by Brad Hand. What will Doug Fister be able to do? Mike Minor is not the same bad pitcher he was in the first half of the season.
• The Pirates over the Phillies: The Pirates have climbed back in the race for the wild card and are peaking at a good time. Jeff Locke is the only question mark here. Kyle Kendrick has confounded me all season though.
• The Blue Jays over the Cubs: Jacob Turner was really good his last time out, but that was against a really struggling Brewers. The Blue Jays are a different offense for him to deal with. Marcus Stroman has been great and my only regret is that I did not hold on to him in my Fantasy league.
• The Orioles over the Red Sox: I like Joe Kelly a lot. I think he was well worth the Lackey deal straight up. However, today he faces the machine called the Orioles and you cannot resist the machine. Miguel Gonzalez goes for the O's.
• The Mets over the Rockies: Jon Niese has quietly put together another nice season as a Mets' starter. The pun in that sentence was accidental. He has a good chance of winning today because I cannot remember the last time Jordan Lyles won a game despite his nice, 6-2 record.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: The Cardinals are like that snowball you tried to build into the boulder and it got so big that you could barely roll it to the top of the hill. Once the hill was crested, that thing is pounding down the hill taking everything in its path. Shelby Miller over Dylan Axelrod.
• The Brewers over the Marlins: The Brewers are decimated and depressed. They are this dead heap of stuff that is still mathematically alive in the wild card race. They get a reprieve tonight as Yovani Gallardo should be better than Brad Penny.
• The Athletics over the White Sox: You can almost guarantee a homer by Adam Dunn against his old team, can't you? I am worried about the A's bullpen which really melted down last night against the Astros. I'm still a Sonny Gray guy and think he'll be better than the surprisingly good Hector Noesi.
• The Mariners over the Astros: The Astros continue to be better than their payroll and had a good series against the A's. But I cannot see Felix Hernandez losing to them at home and Brad Peacock will be the hard luck loser.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Padres: How can today's game of the day not be anyone but Clayton Kershaw against the Padres? He has decimated them all season. Being a lefty, he also puts two of the Padres' most potent hitters on the bench. Sorry, Odrisamer Despaigne. I can now spell that name without looking it up.

Yesterday: 7-8, September: 52-44, Games of the Day: 90-60 (+5), Season: 1182-978