Dunn and Rodney are lazy picks for comeback awards

The Comeback Player of the Year Award is a strange animal. Basically, you qualify for the award if you completely sucked the previous year(s) or were injured and could not perform. To top off the weirdness of the animal, there are two of them. The Sporting News has awarded the prize since 1965 and then Major League Baseball came up with its version in 2005. Both have already awarded their picks for 2012. They both got it wrong. The selections were lazy, plain and simple.

The Sporting News went with Adam Dunn of the Chicago White Sox. The funny thing here is that the link was found on the Sports Illustrated site, a magazine that has long been in competition with TSN and did not even mention in the story that TSN was the author of the award. Anyway, TSN got it way wrong.

Major League Baseball gave the award to Fernando Rodney. Rodney, as we all know, had an amazing season, one of the best ever for a reliever/closer. But Rodney's season does not fall in the category of a comeback. His season was more in the, "where-the-heck-did-that-come-from," category. He did not come back. He never was before.

Let's start with Dunn. Yes, Adam Dunn had the most putrid season in baseball history in 2011. And yes, he was not nearly so putrid in 2012. For those wildly impressed with power numbers, Dunn did hit 41 homers in 2012 after hitting only eleven in 2011. That certainly is pretty. And he knocked in 96 runs and received an incredible 105 walks.

Even so, he was still only fourth on his own team in wRC+ and since he was mostly a DH and a really bad first baseman, and since he is the stodgiest of base runners, he still garnered only 1.7 fWAR or 0.9 rWAR. Dunn came within a strikeout of tying the major league record and struck out a preposterously 34 percent of the time. If you liked Dave Kingman, then Adam Dunn is your guy.

Dunn was not the best choice for comeback player on his own team, never mind the entire league. Alex Rios should have won the award. If we go by WAR for example and use Fangraphs.com's numbers for that statistic, Dunn went from -3.0 fWAR to 1.7, a jump of  4.7 wins. Alex Rios went from -0.8 fWAR in 2011 to 4.3 in 2012, a jump of 5.1 wins. Baseball-reference.com has an even bigger swing. According to that site's WAR calculation, Dunn gained four wins in 2012 higher than his 2011 figure while Rios jumped a whopping 6.2 rWAR from 2011 to 2012.

And Rios isn't the only one on the White Sox worth considering. There was also Jake Peavy who went from 111+ innings in 2011 to 219 in 2012 and went from 0.0 rWAR in 2011 to 4.3 in 2012. Here was a guy nobody thought would pitch effectively again and he finished with a 3.73 FIP.

So again, Dunn wasn't even the best candidate on his own team. But what about Fernando Rodney? There is nothing but superlatives to say about Rodney's season. But he did not come back from anything. He never was anything until this season. Before 2012, Rodney had never finished higher than 1.0 rWAR in his career since 2005 and that was the highest he'd ever finished in that statistic. 2005 and 2006 were his only two seasons to finish under 4.00 in ERA.

Rodney's lowest FIP of any full season was 3.88. Yes, he had 37 saves in 2009, but it's not like he had a good season that year. He didn't. Rodney's 2012 season came out of nowhere. His dominance in K/9, K/BB ratio, WHIP, FIP and every other statistic were unprecedented in his career. Rodney was certainly the reliever of the year and should get a top ten finish in Cy Young Award voting, but he does not qualify for the comeback thing. He just doesn't.

So yes, we've started the award season and it is already off to a bad start. The voters of the Comeback Player of the Year Award (both versions) were lazy and did not do the homework needed to get it right.  But that isn't really a surprise to anyone, is it?

Best and Worst Base Runners of 2011

Steve Slowinski, Editor-in-Chief of DRaysBay.com who also has his own site (as well as writing for SB Nation and Fangraphs!) was kind enough over on Twitter last night (@SteveSlow) to explain to this old writer how to find base running stats over at FanGraphs.com. And it was fun to look at the leaders and losers in this category in Major League Baseball. As many have pointed out, with runs per game down in the past couple of years, there is more emphasis on base running as a means of scoring runs.

It turns out that quantifying base running is far more difficult than it sounds. There are stolen bases and stolen base percentage. There are bases taken on hits (such as stretching a single into a double, etc.). There are base running events when on base (going from first to third on a single) and there is moving up a base on passed balls and wild pitches. That's complicated! This amateur won't even begin to try to explain all that. Fortunately, in this day and age of stats at our fingertips, others do that for us. All we have to do is know how to search and sort.

First up is your best base runners so far in 2011 along with their base running score as listed by Fangraphs:

1. Michael Bourn (Astros): Bourn is considered by many to be the fastest player in the majors. It would be fun to see Bourn in a race with Peter Bourjous, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner. Score: 4.7.
2. Elvis Andrus (Rangers): Andrus is very aggressive on the base paths and it works more often than not. Score 4.7.
3. Alex Rios (White Sox): Rios is having a bad season. His WAR currently sits at -0.5. But he's still excelling on the base paths. And he must be really good on the bases as he only has six stolen bases. Score: 3.8
4. Melky Cabrera (Royals): Another surprise. Add this up to the surprising season he is already having. His base running adds a lot to his WAR tally. Score: 3.5
5. Drew Stubbs (Reds): His base running score really points out how much better a player he would be if he could cut down his strikeouts. His K's lead the National League. Score: 3.4
6. Alex Gordon (Royals): We should call them the "Runnin' Royals" as Gordon is the second Royal on this list. Score: 3.4
7. Curtis Granderson (Yankees): Granderson is not only hitting the snot out of the ball but he is using his speed and base running skills to have one of the best all around games in baseball this season. Score: 3.4

It's surprising that Jose Reyes isn't higher on this list. He sits at 18th in the majors despite all those triples and stolen bases. Peter Bourjos, who can flat out fly is 15th. And Brett Gardner is 28th, a ranking that bespeaks those who say he is too tentative on the base paths at times.

The other thing to note is that, other than Granderson, the walk percentage for the other six guys on this list are all less than nine percent. In Cabrera and Andrus' cases, both are under six percent. If only these guys could walk more, imagine what damage they could do!

And now for the worst base runners of 2011:

1. Paul Konerko (White Sox): While Konerko's offensive numbers are overlooked in baseball, he is a really bad base runner and is rated far and above all others in base running ineptitude. Since he's also not a good fielder, his WAR is never as high as you would think it should be. Score: -7.3
2. Casey McGehee (Brewers): McGehee's stock as a player has really taken a hit this season. While he is trying to pull every pitch, his average, on base percentage and slugging have all taken hits. Plus, he's a lousy base runner. Score: -4.7
3. Brett Wallace (Astros): Wallace is hitting well and getting on base well. His power numbers are unexpectedly low. But he's a lousy fielder and a lousy base runner. Score: -3.8
4. Bobby Abreu (Angels): The Fan doesn't get this one. Abreu always steals bases, even now that he's 86 years old, he steals bases. But he must not do anything else well on the base paths. Score: -3.7
5. Aramis Ramirez (Cubs): Ramirez is hitting better lately. But his base running is substandard. Score: -3.6

Some other surprisingly bad base runners: Nick Swisher (-3.2), Andre Ethier (-3.2) and Austin Jackson (-2.7). That gives Jackson the trifecta for why he shouldn't be leading off. He's not a good base runner, he doesn't get on base and he strikes out too much.

The worst base runner last year was Adam LaRoche, who had a score of -8.4. Konerko is certainly in line to better (?) that score. Elvis Andrus was the best base runner of 2011 with a score of 8.2. Paul Konerko is the worst base runner for the last five years (2006 to present) with a scary score of -32.3, a full seven points worse than Prince Fielder. Chone Figgins has the best base running score over the last five years at 31.8 followed by Juan Pierre at 24.9.

Curtis Granderson Versus Shane Victorino Versus Alex Rios

Playing centerfield is a glamour position in Major League Baseball. When you think of the position, you think Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays and all the other great players that have played there. It is a position that requires speed, range, instincts and a little bat would be good when thrown in. Teams don't generally look for a slugger for centerfield. Those are reserved for the corner outfield spot. When these "rules" came about on the kind of hitter a certain player position should be, who knows. But centerfield is rarely manned by a slugger. It's the speed guys like Kenny Lofton, Willie Wilson, Mickey Rivers and the like that play there. They lead off in the batting order and steal bases. But as Mantle and Mays proved, you could bop too and still play the position. Mr. Hamilton in Texas did that in 2010 too.

It may surprise you to know that according to Fangraphs, the top two guys in value over the last five years (playing center) are Carlos Beltran and Grady Sizemore. That those two are still on top after missing significant time to injuries in the past year or two, either speaks to how good they were/are, or it speaks to how few valuable centerfielders there are in the game. It may or may not surprise you that right behind those two players is Curtis Granderson followed by Alex Rios and Shane Victorino. In fact, this piece probably started out to figure out who was the better player, Granderson or Victorino. But that wouldn't be right without including Rios as he is right between them in value for the last five years.

Among the five players we've mentioned, Granderson and Beltran are tied for the most homers with 118. Sizemore has 104, Rios has 94 and Victorino has 60. And while power certainly helps, we need to look at the bigger picture when comparing the players. Taking Sizemore and Beltran out of the picture (though it is hoped that both return in a big way in 2011), let's take a deeper look into the three remaining centerfielders.

Let's start with defense. According to Fangraphs, Rios has the honors here. His defense is rated off the charts. It's weird, not having watched Rios play very often, you can't picture him as a great fielder. And for the first couple of years of this sample, he didn't even play center as he played with Vernon Wells in Toronto. Who would have thought that Rios would be the best fielding centerfielder of this era. Victorino comes in second behind him but the gulf is wider between Rios and Victorino than it is with Victorino and Granderson. The bottom line here is that all of our guys are great fielders who help their teams defensively as well as offensively.

When it comes to offense, it's closer than you think. Let's start with Weighted On Base Average or wOBA as it is called. Granderson comes out on top at .358 over the last five years. Victorino and Rios come in together in a dead heat at .347. Would you have guessed that? The Fan wouldn't have. Granderson walks more than the other two, but he also strikes out more. Victorino steals more bases, but not much more than Rios (another surprise), while Granderson lags behind them a bit.

Granderson had a good second half in 2010. He seems to have learned to hit lefties with Kevin Long as his coach. Victorino had a bad year in 2010. Rios had a great first half but faltered in the second. There are some good young centerfielders coming in the game like Austin Jackson and Andrew McCutchen. But for the last five years, Granderson comes out on top in the value race between he and Rios and Victorino. We'll see this year if Sizemore can get back to being one of the best in the business and it remains to be seen if Beltran has anything left in the tank or if he'll even play centerfield for the Mets in 2011.

Three Value-Added Surprises

Glancing at the the first page of leaders on www.fangraphs.com in value, many familiar and expected faces appeared. Pujols, yup. Longoria, yup. Votto, yup. Vernon Wells, yup. Beltre, yup. Zimmerman, yup. Zobrist, yup. But while looking at the list (to clarify, this is based on dollar value calculated from WAR for batters with their fielding figured in), three names popped out that simply weren't expected. They are Angel Pagan, David Eckstein and Alex Rios. Are you kidding!? Angel Pagan and David Eckstein?? Rios is a little less surprising in that he certainly had the talent to be where he is, but simply hasn't shown it for a fairly long while. This page that the Fan was looking at was the first page of six. In other words, it lists the players in the top 84th percentile currently in value in the majors. And it includes Eckstein and Pagan. Amazing. Let's look at all three and see why they are valued where they are. We'll start with Rios.

Alex Rios isn't just on the first page, he is listed tied for third with Carl Crawford just ahead of Kevin Youkilis and just behind Justin Morneau and Chase Utley. That's pretty heady company he's keeping there. And he's been doing this well quietly on a team that has been loudly disappointing so far this year.

Rios is a player that many suspected didn't care that much about how good he could be or was. The perception was intensified with some damaging statements he made during the latter stages of his tenure in Toronto. And last year certainly didn't help the image any. In combined time with the Blue Jays and the White Sox in 2009, Rios put up the terrible line of: .247/.296/.395. That's an ugly line. And it wasn't just his hitting. His fielding tanked too. He went from a 21.7 UZR in 2008 to a -0.5 in 2009. Blue Jay fans who had come to loathe him were particularly glad the Jays got rid of him.

But there he is at third in the league in value for 2010. Rios had some very good years at the plate for the Blue Jays. His wOBA from 2006 through 2008 was .365, .368 and .350. Those are good numbers. He averaged 18 homers a year during that time and a .296 batting average and threw in 64 steals for good measure. But then came last year and many thought the White Sox were idiots for taking him on. Rios also has a pretty fat contract which made it seem all the stupider. But so far this year, Rios has the following line: .309/.362/.568 and his wOBA is a nice fat .410. He's already hit nine homers and has stolen fifteen bases. And the hitting isn't fluky either as his BABIP is right where it should be.

Alex Rios isn't just doing it with the bat. He is also rated as the sixth best outfielder in baseball so far this year. That's great fielding! Kenny Williams gets a lot of criticism for his personnel decisions, but Rios has proven out to be a shrewd move.

David Eckstein has been around so long that it was hard to remember that he was still in the big leagues. He started with the Angels and in his first couple of years with the Cardinals but his playing time started to diminish in 2007. When the Cardinals let him go, it surprisingly wasn't his hitting they jettisoned (he hit .302 that year) but his fielding. Eckstein was always weak-armed for an infielder, but his UZR fell to -9.8 in 2007 and the Cardinals felt they had no choice but to improve themselves. In 2008, Eckstein signed on with the Blue Jays organization, but they ultimately didn't want him so he went to the Padres. There he had another bad year in the field (-8 UZR) and batted only .265.

But apparently, the Padres like the "intangibles" that Eckstein brings to the table. He hit only .260 in nearly full time duty last year for the Padres and had a .323 OBP. Nothing to write home about. But his defense improved some and finished out last year at -2.3. But this year, playing second base exclusively, Eckstein has turned around his fielding completely and has a 6.8 UZR. Remarkable. He is also batting .297 with a .358 OBP, so everything is roses for the Padres and Eckstein. He just came off a stint on the DL, but it sure was surprising to see him so high in the value ratings. The Fan isn't sure if Eckstein would even come to mind if the task was to put a 25 man roster together.

The third member of the shocking trio of top value-added players is Angel Pagan. For all this Fan knew, Pagan was just a place holder until Beltran came back. But Pagan hit a surprising .306 last year in 88 games for the Mets with a .350 OBP with a surprising Slugging Percentage of .487. Hit hit 11 triples and 22 doubles in just 88 games. This year, Pagan is showing the numbers weren't a fluke as he is batting .296 with a .361 OBP. His Slugging Percentage is a bit lower, but he's not a patsy at the plate by any means.

The value added by Pagan is his defense. Last year, Pagan finished with a +7 for his UZR and this year is even better at 7.6. He is in the top five for outfielders in fielding plus he already has four outfield assists this season.

So there you have it. There are three guys you would never expect to see ranked that high on the value charts this far into the season. Did it shock you too?

Being Human in the YouTube Age

It's difficult for this writer to get too worked up about Alex Rios and his YouTube exploits. Seven straight strikeouts is enough to get anyone a little angry. Cito Gaston had a great quote concerning the strikeouts: "They'll call him on his cell, that's how much they had his number." It was only human for Rios to be a bit steamed at that point. The problem is that public figures have no escape from the technology that is out there today.

The Fan can understand losing one's temper. If you were on the golf course the other day when the Fan chunked an iron after a good drive, you would have been shocked at the language that came streaming forth from this normally pristine mouth. Hey, it happens. It's stupid and it shouldn't happen, but Rios is a competitor. Frankly, it would have been more disrespectful to the game if he took that stunning lack of success of hitting the ball in stride and had a big old smile on his face. At least Rios apologized for his YouTube notoriety.

Bashing Rios for not quite reaching his potential is understandable. Bashing him for being human is not quite the same thing. Give the guy a break already, okay?