Odds are Long on Kendrys Morales Comeback

Bobby Abreu is an unhappy guy right now. His role with the Angels will be diminished since the Angels signed Albert Pujols. The Pujols signing created a domino effect that pushed Mark Trumbo off of first base and into an already crowded outfield picture. The picture gets further complicated by the expected return of Kendrys Morales from an injury saga that resulted on a leap of joy following a walk off home run early in the 2010 season. Morales is being pushed as the designated hitter. But Bobby Abreu should sit tight. To expect any kind of comeback from Morales seems like very long odds.

It is not historically unusual for a player to miss as much time as Morales has and come back to be productive. Heck, during and after World War II, it happened all the time. In more recent times, Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals missed a long time and came back to be a terrific starter for that team. But even so, the injury to Kendrys Morales involved one of his wheels and the guy is only recently getting back to running and will soon test his recovery by running the bases. Does that sound as scary to you as it does here? The legs are the most important aspect of a ball player. A pitcher gets his drive from his legs and the same for a batter. And Morales has had multiple surgeries on his injured ankle. It's one thing to consider running. It's another to consider starting from that far back to actually playing the game.

For fascinating stuff, simply look at projections for Morales for 2012. Bill James is typically bullish. The zen master projects Morales to hit a slash line of, .296/.341/.504 in 141 games played. Holy cow! If Morales could come close to that number of games played and production, the Angels should regain the top spot in the division. But is that realistic? Not from this basement office chair.

ZiPS projections are a bit more cautious. That projection has Morales at, .274/.321/.455 in 87 games. RotoChamp is even more ambitious than Bill James and projects Morales at, .298/.356/.528 in 436 plate appearances. Steamer Projections seem to be the most cautious with a projection of only 246 plate appearances at, .282/.338/.484. To round out our projection field, we end at Baseball Prospectus which has Morales at, .283/.328/.469 in 350 plate appearances.

All these projections listed, even the most cautious, assume that Morales will be able to come back and be immediately close to as effective a hitter as he was before he was injured. The most cautious still thinks he will attain 246 plate appearances while doing so. That seems like a stretch to anyone's imagination. Granted, those people are all smart people. They have all earned the respect they have in the baseball writing and analysis world. But this observer thinks they are all crazy on this one.

First, Kendrys Morales has to prove he can even play baseball again. He hasn't done that yet. So that is still an open question. Secondly, once Morales can prove he can play baseball, to expect him to play close to his former ability after nearly two years of an absence seems a stretch.

Look, we all root for the comeback story and therefore, we all hope that Kendrys Morales can resume what was once a promising career. That career was derailed in one of the freakiest accidents ever to occur on a baseball field. But the reality is that Morales first has to prove he is physically able to play and then prove he can still perform at the high level that all these folks expect. If this writer was a betting man, Bobby Abreu should keep his bat and batting gloves warm in 2012. He's going to need them more than the Angels think.

Say Me, Say You, Bobby Abreu

Despite rumors to the contrary last night on Twitter (And rumors went bananas last night), Bobby Abreu is still a member of the Angels and according to the wonderful website, MLB Depth Charts, Abreu is still penciled in to the Angels' starting line up as this seasons' Angels designated hitter. That could change, of course, with a trade or if the Angels decide to eat the last year of Abreu's contract. Abreu is now 37 years old and his presence along with the erstwhile, Vernon Wells, effectively blocks prospect Mike Trout from the starting line up and perhaps the opening day roster. Such is life for Bobby Abreu that his relative worth will be debated for the next couple of weeks. It won't be much different than the rest of his career.

There will come a time when Bobby Abreu retires. Perhaps it will be after this year when his contract ends. Perhaps not. But the end will come someday and when it does, there are sure to be wide discussions of his career. Some will point to his eye-popping career slash line: .293/.397/.481, good for a 129 OPS+ (according to baseball-reference.com). Those same supporters will point to Abreu's 393 stolen bases and 75 percent success rate. They could point out his 554 doubles, 58 triples and 1,412 runs scored.

But just as many will counterpoint that he only made two All Star teams in his sixteen years of play and was somewhat ineffective as an outfielder. Despite piling up great numbers with the Phillies, not many fans shed tears when he was traded to the Yankees in 2006. Nor were there many New York tears shed when that team let him walk away to the Angels after the 2008 season. And now there are grumpy Angels fans that Abreu is still a member of their team heading into 2012. It's not Abreu's fault that the Angels signed him to a contract that in hindsight was two years too long. Abreu certainly earned his keep in 2009 and 2010. But he didn't come close last year.

What makes perfect sense is that Bobby Abreu's nearest comp on baseball.reference.com is Bernie Williams. Both players had similar career numbers. Both were better offensive players than defensive players. And both cause a lot of heartburn among writers and fans as to their relative career value. Williams' defense cost him more WAR than Abreu's tally according to Fangraphs. But B-R has them much closer.

Bobby Abreu, if he remains with the Angels through the season, is not going to have a good PR season. And that's unfortunate. The Angels have painted themselves in a box with the atrocious Vernon Wells deal they took on by obtaining him from the Blue Jays. They have to play Wells to try somehow to justify what they will pay him the next couple of years. Abreu's on-base skills are much superior to Wells (in the understatement of the year). Since Wells has to play, if the Angels desire Abreu's on-base skills, he will be forever known to Angel fans as the guy who blocked Mike Trout (who everyone wants to see play in the big leagues).

And we can't leave Torii Hunter out of this discussion either. Hunter quietly (who ever talks about it?) has just as much of a dead contract as Wells. Hunter is going to make $18 million this season and there's no way he'll ever earn it. For those counting such things, that's $39 million committed to three guys who probably shouldn't be in the line up instead of Mike Trout. Hunter and Wells will play because of the money. Abreu becomes the expendable one and he might still be the better offensive player of the three. Abreu can't win no matter what he does. Either he's traded or cut, or he's reviled for blocking a prospect.

It's a fitting problem for a player that has caused so much debate in his career and will after it's over. Bobby Abreu might have been a superstar for two seasons. But he has been a very good player for his career. He is probably not a Hall of Fame player. But in a day and age of on-base mania, he's Exhibit A for how to do it.

Best and Worst Base Runners of 2011

Steve Slowinski, Editor-in-Chief of DRaysBay.com who also has his own site (as well as writing for SB Nation and Fangraphs!) was kind enough over on Twitter last night (@SteveSlow) to explain to this old writer how to find base running stats over at FanGraphs.com. And it was fun to look at the leaders and losers in this category in Major League Baseball. As many have pointed out, with runs per game down in the past couple of years, there is more emphasis on base running as a means of scoring runs.

It turns out that quantifying base running is far more difficult than it sounds. There are stolen bases and stolen base percentage. There are bases taken on hits (such as stretching a single into a double, etc.). There are base running events when on base (going from first to third on a single) and there is moving up a base on passed balls and wild pitches. That's complicated! This amateur won't even begin to try to explain all that. Fortunately, in this day and age of stats at our fingertips, others do that for us. All we have to do is know how to search and sort.

First up is your best base runners so far in 2011 along with their base running score as listed by Fangraphs:

1. Michael Bourn (Astros): Bourn is considered by many to be the fastest player in the majors. It would be fun to see Bourn in a race with Peter Bourjous, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner. Score: 4.7.
2. Elvis Andrus (Rangers): Andrus is very aggressive on the base paths and it works more often than not. Score 4.7.
3. Alex Rios (White Sox): Rios is having a bad season. His WAR currently sits at -0.5. But he's still excelling on the base paths. And he must be really good on the bases as he only has six stolen bases. Score: 3.8
4. Melky Cabrera (Royals): Another surprise. Add this up to the surprising season he is already having. His base running adds a lot to his WAR tally. Score: 3.5
5. Drew Stubbs (Reds): His base running score really points out how much better a player he would be if he could cut down his strikeouts. His K's lead the National League. Score: 3.4
6. Alex Gordon (Royals): We should call them the "Runnin' Royals" as Gordon is the second Royal on this list. Score: 3.4
7. Curtis Granderson (Yankees): Granderson is not only hitting the snot out of the ball but he is using his speed and base running skills to have one of the best all around games in baseball this season. Score: 3.4

It's surprising that Jose Reyes isn't higher on this list. He sits at 18th in the majors despite all those triples and stolen bases. Peter Bourjos, who can flat out fly is 15th. And Brett Gardner is 28th, a ranking that bespeaks those who say he is too tentative on the base paths at times.

The other thing to note is that, other than Granderson, the walk percentage for the other six guys on this list are all less than nine percent. In Cabrera and Andrus' cases, both are under six percent. If only these guys could walk more, imagine what damage they could do!

And now for the worst base runners of 2011:

1. Paul Konerko (White Sox): While Konerko's offensive numbers are overlooked in baseball, he is a really bad base runner and is rated far and above all others in base running ineptitude. Since he's also not a good fielder, his WAR is never as high as you would think it should be. Score: -7.3
2. Casey McGehee (Brewers): McGehee's stock as a player has really taken a hit this season. While he is trying to pull every pitch, his average, on base percentage and slugging have all taken hits. Plus, he's a lousy base runner. Score: -4.7
3. Brett Wallace (Astros): Wallace is hitting well and getting on base well. His power numbers are unexpectedly low. But he's a lousy fielder and a lousy base runner. Score: -3.8
4. Bobby Abreu (Angels): The Fan doesn't get this one. Abreu always steals bases, even now that he's 86 years old, he steals bases. But he must not do anything else well on the base paths. Score: -3.7
5. Aramis Ramirez (Cubs): Ramirez is hitting better lately. But his base running is substandard. Score: -3.6

Some other surprisingly bad base runners: Nick Swisher (-3.2), Andre Ethier (-3.2) and Austin Jackson (-2.7). That gives Jackson the trifecta for why he shouldn't be leading off. He's not a good base runner, he doesn't get on base and he strikes out too much.

The worst base runner last year was Adam LaRoche, who had a score of -8.4. Konerko is certainly in line to better (?) that score. Elvis Andrus was the best base runner of 2011 with a score of 8.2. Paul Konerko is the worst base runner for the last five years (2006 to present) with a scary score of -32.3, a full seven points worse than Prince Fielder. Chone Figgins has the best base running score over the last five years at 31.8 followed by Juan Pierre at 24.9.

Comparing Carl Crawford to Bobby Abreu

There is no doubt in every one's mind that the Carl Crawford signing by the Boston Red Sox combined with their acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez makes them the team to beat in the American League East. This writer certainly has no arguments with those sentiments. The Fan thought the Red Sox were the favorites before Crawford signed. It just seemed a good time to take a good look at Crawford as a player since he will be in the thick of Red Sox seasons for years to come. When considering Crawford, the first name that came to mind was Bobby Abreu. But is that even close to being a good comparison?

Obviously when it comes to fielding, the Abreu/Crawford comparison is stupid. Abreu was at best an adequate fielder in his prime and an awful one after. Crawford, by all accounts is a wonderful left fielder. But Fenway Park and its configuration mitigates some of that value Crawford provides because left field in Fenway is like playing in a sandbox. But there are other comparables.

First, neither hit much for power. Abreu did have some good power years early in his career, but they are somewhat suspect in retrospect. His true power value seemed to be anywhere from 18 to 22 homers. Crawford hit 19 homers in 2010, his highest total in his career. That gives an edge to Abreu. Crawford hit many more triples than Abreu though. But still, Abreu's career slugging is .488. Crawford's is .444 and 2010 was the first season in Crawford's career that he slugged higher than .488 in a season.

Second, Abreu always had more patience at the plate. Both stayed around the .300 mark in batting average, but Abreu would consistently post .400 OBP or higher. Abreu walked over 100 times in a season for eight straight seasons. Crawford has never walked more than 51 times and has a career OBP of .337. In his peak years, he should post OBP totals from .350 to .365. Edge Abreu.

Base running is again a silly question, though not as silly as you would think. Crawford has averaged 50 steals a season with an incredible 82% success rate. Part of that could be explained by all those games facing Varitek and Posada, but still. It's incredible the success Crawford has had on the bases. Abreu was no slouch on the bases and in his peak nine years averaged 30 steals a season with a 77% success rate. But pitchers were never rattled with Abreu on the bases like they are with Crawford. Edge Crawford.

The Fan saved his favorite stat for last. It was interesting to note that Abreu has a career BABIP of .343. Crawford's career mark is .331. That means that more of Abreu's career batted balls fell in for hits than Crawfords. Why would that be? This observer thinks the difference is line drive percentage. Abreu's career live drive percentage is 22.1% (since 2002. The stat wasn't kept before that). It was common for Abreu to break the 25 to 26% mark during his best years. Carl Crawford has a career line drive percentage of 19.6% and it was 16.5% in 2010.  The highest mark Crawford ever put together for a season was 2003 with a 21.1% season. A lot of comments around the Net today mentioned that Crawford should pepper the Green Monster. But you have to hit line drives to do that. Crawford doesn't with regularity.

Abreu during his peak years had WAR ratings that rivaled or surpass Crawford's yearly totals and it wouldn't be close except for Crawford's fielding edge. So, believe it or not, Abreu was as good a player as Crawford is now.

What's the reason for bringing all this up? Two reasons. The first was to make the point that Bobby Abreu never scared this Fan with his play. If he was coming up in an All Star Game or a playoff game or a World Series game, there was never any quaking about what he might do at the plate. There were always other betters that scared you more. The same is true for Crawford. When the Yankees played the Bay Rays, Crawford was never a batter that put dread into you when you were watching in a close game. The question the Fan has is who would scare you more during a big playoff moment, Crawford or Werth. This Fan would have to say Werth.

The second reason for bringing all this up was to mention that Abreu's WAR totals started declining in his age 31 season. That's two years away for Crawford and his deal is for seven years. Again, don't get the Fan wrong. Crawford is a wonderful player and the Red Sox are the team to beat. The Fan just doesn't think he's as great as he's made out to be and doesn't think he will be worth over $20 million for the next seven seasons.

Chone Figgins or Bobby Abreu - MVP?

Last night, Chone Figgins showed why he is a serious MVP candidate. He only got on base once via a walk. The rest of the night, he was 0-4 with a strikeout. But that one time he got on base, he stole second, stole third and scored. He rattled Danks, the pitcher, so much that three homers ensued. Meanwhile, the steal of the year, Bobby Abreu, hit a homer, stole a base and scored two runs. Either player could be a viable MVP candidate.

Let's start with Figgins. Two years ago, Figgins played in 115 games and batted .330 with an On Base Percentage of .393. He stole 42 bases in only those 115 games and scored over 80 runs. Then last year, he became quite ordinary. He still stole a lot of bases, but his batting average fell to .276 with an OBP of .367. His OPS+ (82) was the lowest of his career.

But this year, he's been the catalyst at the top of the order and his line of .303/.395/.404 leads up to an OPS+ of 109. He leads the league in runs scored with 87 (in just 105 games). Unlike other years where he has played all over the field, Figgins has been pretty much anchored at third where he is league average in fielding percentage with above league average range.

It's usually the sluggers who get all the MVP votes, but Figgins has been the disruptive, on-base dynamo that makes this Angel offense go.

Bobby Abreu couldn't find a job this spring, remember? The Yankees didn't want him. Nobody wanted him. Then the Angels picked him up for a song (and a few million). He has responded by having one of his best seasons ever. His current line stands at: .322/.416/.458. He has an OPS+ of 128 and it seems like every game, he is on base, scoring a run, or driving in a run. He has 77 RBI, right up there with the leaders. He has scored 80 runs, right behind Figgins. And he has 23 steals in only 28 attempts.

It is hard to see the Angels being nearly as good as they are without either player. But if the Fan had a vote, Bobby Abreu would be the MVP this year.