Austin Jackson living large

One of the great joys of following baseball is watching young players develop and come into their own. Guys like Wieters for the Orioles now look totally more confident than just a couple of seasons ago. Easy outs become clutch hits. Weaknesses are mitigated. And magic happens. That is all what we are seeing from Austin Jackson this season. He has grown right before our eyes. Now in his third full season, Jackson looks more confident and his play readily reflects a player who is figuring out life in the Major Leagues.

The glaring weakness in Austin Jackson's game to this point was the strikeouts. When he made contact, good things happened. His BABIP has always been way above league average, but putting the ball in play has been the problem. And since he hits line drives at a pace above most mortals, he will always have a good BABIP. Contact was the problem. Much was made of attempts to cut down on his tendency to go down on strikes this spring. And though we've heard that before from other big-time strikeout guys, this time, it actually seems to have meant something.

In Austin Jackson's first 304 games in the majors, Jackson struck out 351 times. This season. in 21 games, he has struck out only 20 times. His 21 percent strikeout rate still seems a bit on the high side. But that is a darn sight better than the 25.8 percent he has averaged for his career. And while he is striking out less, he is walking more. His 12.8 percent walk rate is far and above his career 8.0 percent walk rate. For years, people have been talking about those silly Tigers that kept batting Jackson at the lead off position. And yes, his OBP of .317 last season did make that decision silly. But this year, his .376 on-base percentage justifies his batting order position for perhaps the first time in his career.

And this is a progression at work for Jackson. His O-swing percentage, or the percentage of pitches he swings at out of the strike zone, has decreased in each of his big league seasons. Currently at 26.7 percent, he is already getting there. But if he keeps progressing and can get that discipline down a few more percentage points, there will be no stopping him.

To see Jackson's offensive game round into something near awesome, a complete package is developing. He is already one of the most exciting center fielders in the game today. That play he almost made on Curtis Granderson on Sunday was unbelievable and no other center fielder in the game would have come close to that ball, never mind almost catch it. A case could be made that Jackson is the best fielding center fielder in baseball right now. Seriously. Name someone better.

Everything about Austin Jackson's game is better. He has the highest ISO of his career, the highest wOBA, the highest OPS, the lowest strikeout rate. There was a time as recent as last year's post season, when it was a relief to have Austin Jackson come to the plate in a big situation. A relief for the opposition that is. Now, seeing the young center fielder stride to the plate brings apprehension. 

It is early in the season. The sample size is still a big small. Let's see if Austin Jackson can keep this up. This observer thinks he can. Fangraphs currently ranks him as the third most valuable non-pitcher in baseball. And he's still not as good as he is going to be.

Rookie of the Year Award - One Out of Two Ain't Bad

The Rookie of the Year Award was announced today and this writer can't quibble with the Posey selection in the National League. Posey and Heyward both would have been solid choices. Heyward played more and showed great patience at the plate, but injuries sapped him of some of his power during the season and left the door open for Posey to win. But, for the second year in a row, a relief pitcher (Neftali Feliz) won the American League award and you all know how the Fan feels about that. There is no way that 69 innings of relief can equate to the every day quality of Austin Jackson's year.

This Fan is nothing if not consistent in this belief. This space has been devoted a number of times to how no relief pitcher should be eligible for a post season award. Mariano Rivera, as great as he's been should never have won a Cy Young Award and he hasn't. Starting pitchers who win the award pitch from 200 to 230 innings a season. Rivera averages around 60 to 65. There is no comparison to the value. What Andrew Bailey contributed to the Oakland A's last year was no way near as valuable as what his teammate, Anderson, did as a starter.

The Fan has already run the numbers and presented the WAR of all the rookie candidates and won't rehash them again now. Youz guyz can go ahead and search the blog and you'll find it. Feliz came in third or fourth according to the Fan's research. You can argue until you are blue in the face and this Fan will never agree that a relief pitcher is as valuable as a good every day player.

The writers who make these selections have a majority of old school kind of guys. And for many of them, the value of a golden armed relief pitcher is just too glitzy to ignore. On the other hand, the young whippersnappers who make up the core of those great baseball analysts that have rocked our baseball world, tend to undervalue closers. The Fan falls exactly in the middle. Teams are devastated when a closer can't get the job done. But again, there is no comparison between getting three outs compared to 18 to 27 of them.

One group says that the closer is indispensable and the other says they are fungible. They are neither. This Fan truly believes that any great arm in a team's farm system can become a great closer. The difference between most of them is that Mariano Rivera has never faltered. But they aren't fungible either for the same Rivera argument. Very few closers keep their mojo beyond a few years...not Papelbon, not Nathan, not Fuentes, etc.

Neftali Feliz had a fantastic year. He saved forty games. He pitched 69, mostly great innings. But that intrinsic value just doesn't add up to what Austin Jackson did over the course of an entire season as an excellent outfielder and slightly above league average batting. But thank goodness for these post season awards. At least it gives us something to write and argue about.

Working the Math on the Granderson Deal

About 39% of the season has been completed and it seemed time to take a look at where we stand on the big trade that sent Granderson to the Yankees for Austin Jackson with Ian Kennedy going to the Diamondbacks as part of the three part deal. The Fan wants to preface this conversation with two things. First, the Fan is going to attempt to use math to figure this out. Thirty years ago, that would have been a good idea. But at the Fan's age, the math has to be suspected. Secondly, the Fan isn't going to discuss the Arizona side of the deal but will only consider two things, how did this deal affect the Yankees and the Tigers. Oh, one other thing. The Fan is also going to consider Damon signing with the Tigers opening a spot for Gardner as a trade: Gardner for Damon. Seems to make sense anyway.

So here's how it looks to date:

The Yankees' side:

Curtis Granderson will make 5.5 million this year. His current WAR gives him a current value this season of 3.9 million. With 61% of the season to go, his projected value for the season would be 10.02 million. But Granderson missed a big chunk of time. So you have to figure that in to the year's projection. If Granderson had played without missing any time, his current value would be 6.3 million. So, to give him an accurate year projection, he would be worth 13.79 million (16.19-(6.3-3.9)). Got that?

Brett Gardner will make .425 million this year and has a current value of 6.4 million giving him a year's projection of 16.45 million. The Fan doesn't see any reason why his current performance will diminish over the season. In fact, if he loses any at the plate, he'll gain it in the field where he should improve as the season goes along.

Chan Ho Park. Chan Ho Park? Yeah, the Fan is submitting that Park is Phil Coke's replacement. Yeah, he isn't a lefty, but he covers pretty much the same role that Coke did. Park is making 1.2 million this year and his current value comes to a negative number. Due to a poor start and some time lost, he's sitting with a value of -1.9 million. But Park has been decent of late and if he gets into his 2009 groove, he should finish around 3 million in value or about half of what he was worth last year. That wasn't exactly scientific, but it is what it is.

The Tigers' side

Austin Jackson is making the minimum this season or $400,000. His current value sits at 7.6 million which projects to a season value of 19.83 million. Many believe he will come down quite a bit at the plate as the season progresses, but though he has been in a slump of late that seems to bear out that belief, we'll keep the year's projection as is for now. This is just a first look, right? We'll update this as the year goes along.

Johnny Damon is making 8.0 million this season and so far has a value of 5.9. That should give him a yearly projection of 15.40 million. There are two comments about this. First, Damon is now pretty much a full time DH. Boesch is playing left most days. So part of Damon's current value comes from time played in left, where he has a 1.0 rating as a fielder. This tempted the Fan to devalue Damon's projection, but perhaps the Tigers will figure out that Damon is actually a better fielder (as of now) than Boesch who is scoring in the negative numbers in value. Plus, Damon really hasn't had one of his hot streaks at the plate yet. So the Fan will leave the projection as is.

Phil Coke is making .425 million this year and is sitting with a current value of 1.5 million. That gives him a yearly projection of 3.9 million. That sounds reasonable.

To recap all of this, the Yankees tab for the three players listed is 7.15 million in salary this year. Detroit's tab for the three players listed is 8.83 million. The Yankees dollar projection for the year (based on what the Fan hopes is good math) is 33.24 million or 4.64 million in value for every million spent. Detroit's projected value for the three players is 39.14 million or 4.43 million of value for every million spent.

This trade is much closer than it appears for this season. The Yankees are getting better value for the dollars spent, but the Tigers are getting the higher total value. This, of course, gets blown all to hell when Granderson's salary increases next year and Austin Jackson is still making just a few bucks over base. But for this year, at first glance, the trade is working out for both teams and buck for buck is pretty close. We will certainly revisit this from time to time.

The other wildcard here is the loss of Ian Kennedy to the Diamonbacks. Kennedy is making .435 million and is sitting at a value of 2.8 million, giving him a projection of 7.09 million for the year. If you throw him together with the Tigers' former Yankees, then the value per million spent jumps to 4.99 million and way past the value the Yankees are currently paying per million. But the Fan is pretty sure the Yankees are just as happy with Phil Hughes as their starter instead of Kennedy, right?

Phenom Report Card

This has been the year of the phenom so far as several teams have their top prospects on the 25 man rosters. It's been exciting to watch in most cases and a bit disappointing in others. And Strasburg hasn't even arrived yet. He threw six no-hit innings yesterday so perhaps it's just a matter of time now. Mid-May seems a good time to get a report card of how these new hopes are doing. Hopefully, the Fan won't leave any out.

Jason Heyward: Heyward continues to impress and despite a muscle problem in his leg that kept him out a while, he is among the league leaders in Runs Batted In and Runs Scored. His .431 OBP, 1.044 OPS and 177 OPS+ are all big numbers. As a left-handed batter, he is holding his own against left-handed pitching with a .917 OPS and a .400 OBP. His fielding has been just south of league average in right field, but that should improve as he gets more comfortable. No assists yet in the outfield. Heyward was batting most of the year in the sixth position in the batting order. But the last two games has featured him batting third and he's responded really well to that with two great games. Heyward has certainly lived up to the hype. Grade A+

Starlin Castro: Hey, it's only been six games so far. Hardly fair to give a report card on such a small sample size. But the bottom line here is that he's been Sterling Starlin at the plate and Starvin' Starlin in the field. You can't ask for more at the dish as Castro has shown that he can hit major league pitching. He currently sports a nifty 167 OPS+ and most impressively, he's only struck out twice. He's got a triple, a homer and a double among his eight hits. Defensively, he's really struggled. His five errors in six games are alarming and already that total is the fifth highest error total in the league. He made 39 errors in the minors last year in only 119 games so his defense is a work in progress, to put it at its most kind. Grade B+

Mike Leake: Who needs the minor leagues? Last year, Leake was pitching college ball. This year, he's 3-0 with the Reds with a 3.10 ERA. He's pitched very well with a WHIP thus far of 1.205. He's given up only three homers which is the fewest among the Reds' starters plus he is batting over .300. Not a bad start for the young guy. There are a few areas of concern. He's been a bit lucky so far with a .257 BABIP and his walk rate is a bit high at 3.8 per 9. His K/BB ratio is at 1.65 and you'd like to see that over 2 in time. He's off to a great start, but those latter numbers bear watching. I has to be exciting though for Reds' fans with Leake, Bailey and Cueto all being 24 years of age or younger and Aroldis Chapman on the way. Grade B+

Cleveland's Young Pitching Rotation: Huff (25), Masterson (25), Carmona (26) and Talbot (26) are not really young enough to be phenoms but they are still all young. Carmona and Talbot have had success in the wins column and both have walked more than they have struck out. That's a bit worrisome. Talbot has thrown two stinkers in a row. Huff hasn't shown last year's success, but he's been better of late. He pitches to contact and how he does is totally dependent on his BABIP rate. The one mystery has been Masterson. He seems to have an uncanny ability to have his contacts falling in for hits. His strikeouts per nine and his K/BB ratio are out of this world though. So he still has a world of promise. He just needs to find a way for the balls put in play to find their way into somebody's mitt. Grade C

Jhoulys Chacin: Two starts don't make a career, but man is he off to a great start. No homers allowed, a 3.2 K/BB ratio, 16 Ks in 15.1 innings all add up to overpowering. When De La Rosa comes off the disabled list, there is no way in the world this guy should go back to the minors. He's not going to maintain a WHIP of 0.783 all year, but he's been awesome so far. Grade A+

Austin Jackson: Everybody keeps waiting for him to come back to earth, but it is mid-May and he's still batting .354 with an OPS+ of 137. His 27 runs scored and his 51 hits lead the American League but so does his 42 strikeouts. He's 2 for his last 12 at bats so he's having his first rough patch of the season. His BABIP is what most people cite as their problem with his performance thus far and they are right as it is an obscene .495. There is no way he can maintain that. Jackson's fielding stats are below league average so far. After watching a few of his games, he looks smooth enough out there and gets to balls quickly. But the numbers don't add up to what the eyes are seeing. Grade A

Ike Davis: The Mets have been a different team since Davis arrived on the scene. The numbers he has put up thus far have been steady if not spectacular. His .405 OBP and his 136 OPS+ are certainly impressive enough. He has struck out 19 times in 21 games, but that is part of his MO, so as long as he produces, the K's are tolerated. His BABIP is a bit high at .354 suggesting he will come down a bit in average, but not alarmingly so. He's not hitting well in high leverage situations which needs to be improved upon. As far as his fielding, he's not elite, but he's made three great plays and he's a darn sight improvement over Tatis, Jacobs or Murphy. Grade B+

Kyle Blanks: Killer Kyle has not gotten untracked yet for the Padres. As well as they are playing, if he can get going, how good can they be? His OBP of .311 is fairly impressive for a guy batting .180, but it's hard to ignore that 180 after 106 at bats. He's struck out 41 times in 28 games and really needs to have some of his other counting stats justify that Mark Reynolds-like whiff total. His fielding in left has been okay which is all you can ask of a left fielder. Blanks needs to stop shooting blanks and soon. Grade D

Matt Latos: Matt Latos has pitched far better than his 2-3 record indicates. His K/BB ratio is great. His WHIP is 1.194 which leads all Padres' starters. His problem thus far has been homers as he has given up seven so far. But over all, you can't ask much more from a 22 year old starter. Grade A.

David Freese: Can you call Freese a phenom when he is 27 years old? Maybe. He was drafted only four years ago and is a solid part of the Cardinals' line up. All his numbers are above average including his .321 average and .400 OBP. He doesn't strike out at an alarming rate and his 22 RBIs are impressive indeed. As you could expect from all those runs driven in, he's batting really, really well in high leverage situations with a 1.081 OPS in those instances. That's terrific. As a right handed batter, he kills lefty pitching and is just okay against righties. His BABIP is slightly elevated at .386 so he could come down a bit in average over the long haul. His fielding has been solid at third. No problems there. Grade A.

Wade Davis: David came up last year so he might be a year beyond phenom-dom. But at 24 and a former top prospect, the Fan will include him in this list. It's hard to fault anything Davis has done in his six starts this year. His 3.12 ERA is solid. He's only given up three homers in 34 innings which is excellent. His 7.1 hits per nine innings is also excellent. The only thing holding Davis back is his control. His 4.8 walks per nine is too high and leads to an early high pitch count which gets him out of games far too soon. He's averaging just over five innings per start thus far as a result. But still, if this is the fifth guy in your rotation, that's pretty sweet stuff. Grade B.

Justin Smoak: Just a few weeks into his rookie campaign, it would be easy to dwell on Smoak's .194 batting average after 19 games. But the feeling here is that he's been on the unlucky side. His batting average on ground balls, for example is .000. That won't continue. He's shown great discipline at the plate with 12 walks in 19 games and only 11 strikeouts. He's already hit four homers and his OPS+ is over league average despite his average. His fielding at first has been excellent thus far too. Mr. Smoak will be just fine. Just give him some time and watch him fly. Grade B-

Travis Snider: Snider is only 22 and has already playing in his third season for the Blue Jays. This is the first time though where he is playing every day and his numbers are encouraging despite an early .232 batting average. His 112 OPS+ is already above league average and is simply going to go up as the year goes along. His strikeout rate (while a bit high) is lower than last year. His walk rate is higher and his .267 BABIP indicates he hasn't been lucky to this point. Snider had an awful April but his OPS has been 1.054 in May. Mark the Fan's words, Snider is going to be great. He'll never be great in the field. But there are worse right fielders... Grade B

Did the Fan leave anyone out? These guys above have been tremendously fun to watch and as the season progresses, it will be super interesting to see how these players develop.