The New York Yankees have played nine games of their 162-game season. To put any kind of emphasis on trends so far would be pushing the short sample size mantra to a throbbing level. Can anything be gained from such an early look at how things are going? With ten players on the disabled list (take that!) and three series against teams headed for "also-ran" status, it would seem even more absurd to take any pulse thoughts at this early point. For the sake of an exercise (and because I felt like writing), let's take a look at the Yankees after six-percent of their season has been completed. Take it all with a grain of salt.
After watching Aaron Judge all spring, I really thought he would put up a better strikeout rate this season. I have been disappointed that he is striking out at prodigious rates and at 38%, his strikeout rate so far is the highest it has been since his 2016 cup of coffee season.
Gary Sanchez does appear to be back as an offensive force with a bat in his hands. After his pathetic showing of a year ago, that is welcome news. However, he does still have his penchant for driving fans crazy with bonehead plays. Getting picked off third with the bases loaded and no out is forgotten by a barrage of homers. But it was the second day in a row of getting picked off. The catcher looks better at blocking pitches behind the plate and is socking the ball. But, man, give us a week of smarts too please.
If you ignore his walk rate, Domingo German is doing a pretty good Luis Severino impression right now. The key will be how that translates to better clubs than the Tigers and Orioles.
For the first time ever, I do not seem to mind that Luis Cessa is on the roster. It feels weird.
I have a strong feeling that Aaron Hicks is the next Jacoby Ellsbury without the MVP season on his resume. The guy just cannot stay on the field. And after watching what a bad back did to Don Mattingly and David Wright, I am not optimistic at all.
Good or bad, Luke Voit is fun to watch. The guy is the "Everyman" on the Yankees who wears everything on his sleeve. I do hope he picks up the pace though!
Who would have thought the Boston Red Sox would have such a start after last season? And who would have thought that the Red Sox' rotation looks terrible and the bullpen looks great? But...:::pinch:::...it is only after the first three series of the season.
I predicted Gleyber Torres to have a great season and he is making me look good so far! Love that kid.
Thus far, the signs are pointing in favor of me falling in like with DJ LeMahieu. Gio Urshela is growing on me too.
How can you not smile for Clint Frazier? If Mike Tauchman starts another game, I might have to get an Aaron Boone voodoo doll. I'm just kidding! I would never wish harm or threaten harm on anyone! Whew! One has to be so careful about what is said these days.
The Yankees really need Dellin Betances. The bullpen is obviously one body short right now. Most of the bullpen regulars are getting the job done, but we are missing that guy to come in and blow people away. Plus, his absence forces Jonathan Holder to pitch multiple innings and he should be limited to one. I hope this late start doesn't mean no extension and walking papers for Betances after the season.
I cannot help it. A little part of me dies inside when Austin Romine starts a game. I cannot help it! I long for the Cervelli days...
Speaking of Jonathans, Jonathan Loaisiga is in the same mold as Severino and German, but cannot locate his fastball. If he could get a clue where it was going occasionally, he will be a terrific pitcher.
I have been thinking about Sonny Gray's complaint about being forced to throw sliders with the Yankees. I think he may have a point. Are there any Yankees pitchers that do not feature a slider? Tampa Bay for years preached the change up. The Yankees under Larry Rothschild, seem to preach the slider. Just something to keep an eye on.
I hope J A Happ's first two starts do not mean that he is an aging pitcher with his best years behind him. He has not looked great at all.
The first nine games have shown that Zack Britton is not yet all the way back from where he was. Maybe he'll never be that guy again. I think the Yankees are better off with him, but if he could put some command together, it would make the world of difference for the bullpen.
Speaking of bullpens, yes, it is early yet, but the Yankees' mercenary refusal to engage David Robertson looks like the right call so far. He was brilliant for the Yankees in 2017, but much less so last year. Chad Green looks like the new Robertson except that Green does not walk anybody.
As much as people love him, I still insist that Brett Gardner is over-the-hill now and should only be a reserve. The occasional walk and his long at bats are nice, but the reality is that both Greg Bird and Luke Voit have better OPS figures than Gardner. And those two are considered to be struggling! I would point out that Bird's current OPS is right where PECOTA pegged him to be.
I am not worried about James Paxton. He looks terrific.
The Yankees did not maximize their opportunity for a strong start against two bad teams to start the season. They need to hold their own against the Astros in Houston for three games and then have a great home stretch against good and bad teams before having to endure a West Coast swing. Nine games does not mean a whole lot. But currently sitting 5-4 feels a lot better than sitting 2-4 did. Onward!
Showing posts with label Brett Gardner. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brett Gardner. Show all posts
Monday, April 08, 2019
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Defensive statistics are still confusing
I wish I was an analytic savant. I really do. For one thing, in this day and age of baseball writing, such ability is where the action is. I try. But like most, I depend on the major stat sites to tell me what I need to know even if I do not understand how they got there. And in most cases, things make sense. Miguel Cabrera was a better offensive player than Prince Fielder. Clayton Kershaw was a much more valuable pitcher than Bronson Arroyo. But fielding stats still baffle me because the major sites do not always agree with each other.
Oh, the two sites agree on Manny Machado and Andrelton Simmons. The major sites are in agreement within a few percentage points of each other. Both had historically good fielding seasons. The sites agree that Michael Young and Miguel Cabrera were terrible in the field. They differ more widely on the awfulness, but all sites confirm they were bad.
But there are too many others that are so off the charts different that it leaves us neophytes gasping at straws. I want to give you a few examples. But first, the common disclaimer must be made. Just about everyone who is smarter than me says that you have to look at a player's fielding over a three year period to get a fairer view of a player's fielding ability. Don't ask me why. But that is what I hear all the time. And of course, the natural disclaimer that I don't always know what I am talking about.
Let's start with Brett Gardner. As a left fielder in 2011, he was rated highly, so highly in fact that it turned his rather mundane offensive numbers into a pretty good valuation. Gardner lost most of 2012 to injury and then this year took over center field--a position that most thought he was most suited for. So how did Gardner do in center in 2013. Darned if I know.
Fangraphs.com rated him at 1.7 runs above average on defense for eighth best among qualifying center fielders. Baseball Prospectus rated him at seven runs below average for his defense. But then you get to Baseball-reference.com.
According to that site, Gardner cost the Yankees more runs on defense than any other player in baseball. According to them, he was 20 total zone runs below average, the most negative number they gave anybody! How can three sites differ so much?
Well, part of that is how the information is displayed that is not necessarily the bottom line. When Fangraphs.com puts that fielding runs next to a player on that player's dashboard, the number includes positional value and replacement value. For example, if you go to the Value section of Gardner's page there, you will find that they rated him at five runs below average, which is close to what Baseball Prospectus gave him. But that -0.5 was offset by a 1.8 positional value which brings him up to a 1.3.
Baseball-reference.com gives him a -20 total zone runs below average, but if you go to where they do their valuations, they give him six runs above average for his fielding and when they add in the positional scarcity equation, he is given 1.1 dWAR based on 18 runs above average. Are you as confused as me yet?
So despite B-R giving him the highest negative on total zone runs in baseball, his defensive valuation is actually higher on their bottom line and as such, they give him 4.2 rWAR compared to Fangraphs' 3.2 fWAR. He received 2.5 WARP from Baseball Prospectus. That is because B-R uses two different fielding systems. One is total zone runs and the other is BIS. More on this in the next paragraph.
Let's take another example. I wanted to see how Shin-Soo Choo made out this year since it was quite a story before the season started that the Reds would make him their every day center fielder. This gets to be quite confusing. Baseball-reference.com actually lists two sources for their fielding stats. One is total zone runs (it has a longer name, but that will do) which is provided by BaseballProjection.com and the other is BIS defensive runs saved above average, which is provided by Baseball Info Solutions.
Choo is given +13 runs above average in total zone runs, the 21st highest in baseball in 2013! But BIS has him at -18 runs saved below average. Choo is given -13.3 fielding runs by Fangraphs and -3.3 by Baseball Prospectus. But again, like Gardner, we need to dig down to the bottom line.
Let's start with Fangraphs. In that site's valuation section, he is given -15.5 for his fielding runs above average. He gets a 1.8 positional adjustment which gives him a total of -13.3 fielding score. Over at Baseball-reference, he get a +13 for his total zone runs but a -18 for his BIS score. In that site's valuation section, they use the -18 number and then add in three for his positional scarcity but still give him a 1.8 dWAR. Baseball Prospectus gives him a defensive score of -3.2. Yes, that hissing sound is my head about to explode.
The bottom line or WAR score for Choo goes like this: 5.2 fWAR, 4.2 rWAR and 6.1 WARP. Ugh.
Let's do one more: Norichika Aoki of the Brewers. Baseball-reference.com gives him a total zone runs of 26, the third highest of anyone! And his BIS score is 13, or half of the other score. Fangraphs gives him a -3.5. Uh. Baseball Prospectus gave him a -3.8. So at least two out of three agree.
Drilling down again to the value sections, Fangraphs actually lists his fielding score at a positive 3.2, but since he played a corner outfield spot, he gets a lot of negative positional hit to bring him down to the -3.5 score and an fWAR of 1.7.
Baseball-reference.com gives him a positive 13 number for his fielding (it seems obvious they use the BIS score) and after knocking him some for his positional scarcity, he ends up with a +0.6 dWAR and a 3.0 rWAR. Baseball Prospectus knocks him all the way back to 1 WARP. With a win valued around $5 million (1.7 fWAR = $8.7 mil in value), that is a $10 million swing in the bottom lines.
I am not doing all this to criticize these sites. How can you criticize when you have no idea how the analysis is done? All I am saying is that the uneducated writer like me who tries his darned best to use these metrics, the slope is slippery and very, very confusing.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Still Confused By Fielding Stats
Wins Above Replacement or WAR is a pleasant taste on the palate from a batting perspective because it is understandable. Jose Bautista walks more, has a higher slugging percentage and strikes out less than Curtis Granderson. As such, when we are fed those statistics, the dominance of Bautista over Granderson in WAR makes solid sense. Base running is pretty easy to swallow too, though there are inherent questions such as what happens when a base runner doesn't take the extra base because the game is lopsided. But fielding metrics, an integral part of WAR, still taste bitter when rolled around the tongue.
Let's make it perfectly clear before moving forward that this writer doesn't know anything about how these numbers are compiled. Before this post gets roasted on some heady site about being the stupidest thing ever, this writer fully admits to his total lack of inherent knowledge on these things. The point of this post is that it's one thing to tell us novices what we should believe. When it comes to the fielding aspect of these statistics, tell us why we should believe them.
Okay, here's the crux of the question: The Fan understands why Bautista is having a better offensive year than Granderson. But how is he having a better defensive season? If you were to pick an outfield on the playground and offense was not the main picking criteria, which outfielder would you want out there? Okay, we must grant the obvious question that both men play different positions. And the positional aspect is played out in the computation of WAR with different values being assessed to each position. Granderson gets positive points for playing a more important position.
But all this Fan can see is that when you look at Fangraphs' Leaderboard, you see a -1.0 next to Bautista for fielding and -8.0 next to Granderson. If you look at Granderson's page on Fangraphs, you see that there have been 237 plays in Granderson's "zone." Baseball-reference.com's page for Granderson says he's had 269 chances. The difference might be that B-R doesn't mention plays out of his zone and Fangraphs does separately. But this Fan doesn't know if that's the difference from the two sites. All this Fan knows is that both sites give Granderson -8 runs below average for his body of work this season.
Bautista, on the other hand--who has a few games at third base to muck things up a bit--has had 170 chances in the outfield or roughly 2.27 chances per game out there compared to Granderson's 2.40 chances per game. Both have made three outfield errors and Bautista has two more assists (8 to 6). But here is where it gets confusing. Granderson (according to Fangraphs) has made 52 plays out of his zone in 112 games this year compared to 55 plays out of his zone last year in 134 games. And yet, he is supposedly having a much worse year in the field this year than last. Huh? Jose Bautista has made 41 plays out of his zone in the outfield and 6 at third base but he has a better fielding rating.
And this is a dumb question probably but this Fan has asked it before and hasn't gotten an answer. And how can you learn anything if you don't ask questions, right? But say that the Fangraphs stats say that Granderson has had 237 balls in his zone and he's made 210 plays. That comes to .886 for his Revised Zone Rating, a figure lower than last year. According to that same site, Brett Gardner has made an incredible 91 plays outside of his zone as the left fielder. How many of those plays happened in Granderson's zone? Does that count against Granderson? Even if an out was made? Please, someone, let this Fan know the answer.
What this Fan does get is that according to the Fans Scouting Report, Gardner has much better instincts than Granderson and an off the chart first step. But if an out is made because Gardner gets there quicker and catches the ball in Granderson's zone, does that count negatively against Granderson?
The sheer ignorance of this writer is probably showing. A layman shouldn't be trying to write a doctoral thesis. But there is no crime in simply trying to understand. It's simple and easy to understand that Bautista is having a better offensive season than Granderson. It's easy to understand that Granderson is having a better year on the basepaths. But the fielding thing continues to boggle the mind. Give this Fan three Grandersons in the outfield over three Bautistas. But from what the numbers say, Bautista is having a better fielding season. It's darned confusing.
Let's make it perfectly clear before moving forward that this writer doesn't know anything about how these numbers are compiled. Before this post gets roasted on some heady site about being the stupidest thing ever, this writer fully admits to his total lack of inherent knowledge on these things. The point of this post is that it's one thing to tell us novices what we should believe. When it comes to the fielding aspect of these statistics, tell us why we should believe them.
Okay, here's the crux of the question: The Fan understands why Bautista is having a better offensive year than Granderson. But how is he having a better defensive season? If you were to pick an outfield on the playground and offense was not the main picking criteria, which outfielder would you want out there? Okay, we must grant the obvious question that both men play different positions. And the positional aspect is played out in the computation of WAR with different values being assessed to each position. Granderson gets positive points for playing a more important position.
But all this Fan can see is that when you look at Fangraphs' Leaderboard, you see a -1.0 next to Bautista for fielding and -8.0 next to Granderson. If you look at Granderson's page on Fangraphs, you see that there have been 237 plays in Granderson's "zone." Baseball-reference.com's page for Granderson says he's had 269 chances. The difference might be that B-R doesn't mention plays out of his zone and Fangraphs does separately. But this Fan doesn't know if that's the difference from the two sites. All this Fan knows is that both sites give Granderson -8 runs below average for his body of work this season.
Bautista, on the other hand--who has a few games at third base to muck things up a bit--has had 170 chances in the outfield or roughly 2.27 chances per game out there compared to Granderson's 2.40 chances per game. Both have made three outfield errors and Bautista has two more assists (8 to 6). But here is where it gets confusing. Granderson (according to Fangraphs) has made 52 plays out of his zone in 112 games this year compared to 55 plays out of his zone last year in 134 games. And yet, he is supposedly having a much worse year in the field this year than last. Huh? Jose Bautista has made 41 plays out of his zone in the outfield and 6 at third base but he has a better fielding rating.
And this is a dumb question probably but this Fan has asked it before and hasn't gotten an answer. And how can you learn anything if you don't ask questions, right? But say that the Fangraphs stats say that Granderson has had 237 balls in his zone and he's made 210 plays. That comes to .886 for his Revised Zone Rating, a figure lower than last year. According to that same site, Brett Gardner has made an incredible 91 plays outside of his zone as the left fielder. How many of those plays happened in Granderson's zone? Does that count against Granderson? Even if an out was made? Please, someone, let this Fan know the answer.
What this Fan does get is that according to the Fans Scouting Report, Gardner has much better instincts than Granderson and an off the chart first step. But if an out is made because Gardner gets there quicker and catches the ball in Granderson's zone, does that count negatively against Granderson?
The sheer ignorance of this writer is probably showing. A layman shouldn't be trying to write a doctoral thesis. But there is no crime in simply trying to understand. It's simple and easy to understand that Bautista is having a better offensive season than Granderson. It's easy to understand that Granderson is having a better year on the basepaths. But the fielding thing continues to boggle the mind. Give this Fan three Grandersons in the outfield over three Bautistas. But from what the numbers say, Bautista is having a better fielding season. It's darned confusing.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Jeter and Gardner Need to Be Separated
There has been some discussion this week of whether Brett Gardner will lead off for the Yankees or whether it will be Derek Jeter. Most favor moving Gardner into the lead off spot and moving Jeter down to second. To this observer, neither matters as long as Jeter is batting behind Gardner. If Jeter leads off and Gardner bats ninth or if Gardner leads off and Jeter bats second, you still have the problem of Jeter behind Gardner. And why is that a problem? Double plays and Jeter's desire to hit the first pitch of any sequence, especially if it's a fastball.
Derek Jeter has averaged 21 grounded-into-double-plays in the last four years. Despite any kind of change to his stance or approach to hitting, Jeter is going to get his fair share of double plays. He hit 22 GDPs last year. Of those 22, thirteen occurred when Gardner was on base. Why is this important? Well, the one reason you want Gardner in the line up is his ability first, to get on base, and second, to create havoc on the bases once he gets there. Gardner's on base percentage in 2010 was .379. But since he was on base thirteen of the times Jeter hit into a double-play, that effectively ruins thirteen of his on base opportunities and in effect lowers Gardner's OBP to .356 (subtract 13 from his 216 on base events in 2010). That's thirteen less times that Gardner can steal and cause the defense and the opposing pitcher more stress while he romps around the base paths.
Add to this Jeter's penchant for hitting the first pitch. Derek Jeter loves to jump on a first pitch fastball. He's made a Hall of Fame career doing so. Of Jeter's 739 plate appearances in 2010, 102 of them were decided on the first pitch. A guy like Gardner on the base paths needs enough pitches to make his move. He can't always run on the first pitch. If he does and Jeter hits a line drive, he's dead. If Jeter hits a fly ball, Gardner's effort is wasted. If Jeter hits the ball on the ground, at least the double-play is avoided. The other problem with Gardner on first and Jeter hitting behind him is that Jeter likes to hit the ball the opposite way. If Gardner steals, Jeter loses the hole between the first and second baseman. That would lead to Gardner staying put on first more often than not with Jeter batting, which leads to double-plays.
The solution in this Fan's eyes is two-fold. If you want to bat Gardner first, you have to move Jeter down in the line up to sixth or something. And then you have to risk upsetting the long-time Yankee captain. Personally, the Fan believes Jeter is going to bounce back quite a bit in 2011 and should get his OBP up to a respectable .360 to .375. If he does that, he's still worth leading off. Then slide Gardner into the number two hole. If Jeter doesn't get on base, you can still get Gardner on base in front of the big boys batting behind him. If both get on base, you have the possibility of double steals (Jeter still stole 18 bases last year).
With those two solutions, you accomplish the one thing you want to accomplish. You never want Jeter batting behind Gardner. Consider all you want whether you bat Jeter lead off with Gardner ninth or Jeter second with Gardner leading off. Neither works optimally. Getting Jeter out from behind Gardner is your best move.
Derek Jeter has averaged 21 grounded-into-double-plays in the last four years. Despite any kind of change to his stance or approach to hitting, Jeter is going to get his fair share of double plays. He hit 22 GDPs last year. Of those 22, thirteen occurred when Gardner was on base. Why is this important? Well, the one reason you want Gardner in the line up is his ability first, to get on base, and second, to create havoc on the bases once he gets there. Gardner's on base percentage in 2010 was .379. But since he was on base thirteen of the times Jeter hit into a double-play, that effectively ruins thirteen of his on base opportunities and in effect lowers Gardner's OBP to .356 (subtract 13 from his 216 on base events in 2010). That's thirteen less times that Gardner can steal and cause the defense and the opposing pitcher more stress while he romps around the base paths.
Add to this Jeter's penchant for hitting the first pitch. Derek Jeter loves to jump on a first pitch fastball. He's made a Hall of Fame career doing so. Of Jeter's 739 plate appearances in 2010, 102 of them were decided on the first pitch. A guy like Gardner on the base paths needs enough pitches to make his move. He can't always run on the first pitch. If he does and Jeter hits a line drive, he's dead. If Jeter hits a fly ball, Gardner's effort is wasted. If Jeter hits the ball on the ground, at least the double-play is avoided. The other problem with Gardner on first and Jeter hitting behind him is that Jeter likes to hit the ball the opposite way. If Gardner steals, Jeter loses the hole between the first and second baseman. That would lead to Gardner staying put on first more often than not with Jeter batting, which leads to double-plays.
The solution in this Fan's eyes is two-fold. If you want to bat Gardner first, you have to move Jeter down in the line up to sixth or something. And then you have to risk upsetting the long-time Yankee captain. Personally, the Fan believes Jeter is going to bounce back quite a bit in 2011 and should get his OBP up to a respectable .360 to .375. If he does that, he's still worth leading off. Then slide Gardner into the number two hole. If Jeter doesn't get on base, you can still get Gardner on base in front of the big boys batting behind him. If both get on base, you have the possibility of double steals (Jeter still stole 18 bases last year).
With those two solutions, you accomplish the one thing you want to accomplish. You never want Jeter batting behind Gardner. Consider all you want whether you bat Jeter lead off with Gardner ninth or Jeter second with Gardner leading off. Neither works optimally. Getting Jeter out from behind Gardner is your best move.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
The Fan Was Shouting At His Screen Again
Ah, the life of a Fan. Watched Josh Tomlin of the Cleveland Indians make his major league debut against the New York Yankees. In a nice, feel-good story, Tomlin got the win going seven innings. He only gave up three hits and didn't walk anybody. That's the feel-good part. The Fan shouting at the screen part was watching Yankee batters take meatballs for strikes only to let Tomlin make his pitch with the count in his favor...that was the bad part.
It's enough to drive a Fan crazy. In Rob Neyer's blog today, he quoted another writer whose theory on why this is a pitcher's year is that major league hitters are taking strike one which puts them immediately in a pitcher's count and the pitchers are throwing first pitch strikes. Exactly. Good call. And the Yankees are the de facto poster boys for such activity. The two biggest antagonists? A-Rod and Brett Gardner.
As you probably know, A-Rod is trying to hit his 600th homer. That's one reason why the Fan has been watching every Yankee game to try to catch history. Tonight against Tomlin, A-Rod let at least four glorious meatballs (chest high) go right by him for called strikes. Two were hanging sliders. And the others were batting practice fastballs. Tomlin had a nice game. But he isn't overpowering by any means. He threw strikes and he kept the Yankees off balance. His most effective weapon was throwing that first pitch strike.
This Fan is no expert or he would be on the field playing. But golly geez, it sure looked like A-Rod could have pounded those pitches. Putting himself behind in the count on all occasions, he had to hit the pitcher's pitch, which meant lunging for outside corner strikes and hitting them weakly.
Brett Gardner is simply maddening. He never swings at the first strike and rarely swings at the second one. It seems he is always in the hole in the count, which makes it amazing how well his average and on base percentage have held up. Tuesday night against Tomlin was no different. Belt-high and downtown Broadway strikes and Gardner just stood there looking just like always. And like A-Rod, he gets in a pitcher's count and has to swing at anything close and makes easy outs.
ARRRRGGGHHH! It's enough to drive a Fan to the basement to write a blog. Good for Tomlin though. Might as well exploit a weakness and keep yourself in counts that benefit your own pitches. Smart.
It's enough to drive a Fan crazy. In Rob Neyer's blog today, he quoted another writer whose theory on why this is a pitcher's year is that major league hitters are taking strike one which puts them immediately in a pitcher's count and the pitchers are throwing first pitch strikes. Exactly. Good call. And the Yankees are the de facto poster boys for such activity. The two biggest antagonists? A-Rod and Brett Gardner.
As you probably know, A-Rod is trying to hit his 600th homer. That's one reason why the Fan has been watching every Yankee game to try to catch history. Tonight against Tomlin, A-Rod let at least four glorious meatballs (chest high) go right by him for called strikes. Two were hanging sliders. And the others were batting practice fastballs. Tomlin had a nice game. But he isn't overpowering by any means. He threw strikes and he kept the Yankees off balance. His most effective weapon was throwing that first pitch strike.
This Fan is no expert or he would be on the field playing. But golly geez, it sure looked like A-Rod could have pounded those pitches. Putting himself behind in the count on all occasions, he had to hit the pitcher's pitch, which meant lunging for outside corner strikes and hitting them weakly.
Brett Gardner is simply maddening. He never swings at the first strike and rarely swings at the second one. It seems he is always in the hole in the count, which makes it amazing how well his average and on base percentage have held up. Tuesday night against Tomlin was no different. Belt-high and downtown Broadway strikes and Gardner just stood there looking just like always. And like A-Rod, he gets in a pitcher's count and has to swing at anything close and makes easy outs.
ARRRRGGGHHH! It's enough to drive a Fan to the basement to write a blog. Good for Tomlin though. Might as well exploit a weakness and keep yourself in counts that benefit your own pitches. Smart.
Tuesday, July 06, 2010
The Yankees Mess With Their Line Up
Joe Girardi, manager of the New York Yankees, mixed up his line up last night against the Athletics. He batted Brett Gardner in the first spot and Jeter second. The move seems to make sense in that besides Cano, Gardner has been the Yankees top on base guy from the ninth spot. The Yankees won the game 3-1 thanks to a nice performance by Vazquez with just enough runs off of Ben Sheets, who pitched well. But Gardner went 0-4. Here's why the Fan doesn't like it.
First, Gardner has been like the Yankees' secret weapon. In the ninth spot, he's like a second lead off batter and accounts for a lot of ribbies for Jeter, Swisher, Teixeira and A-Rod. Now you take that secret weapon and force him to the top of the line up where the pitcher will bear down on him more. Plus, Jeter is prone to the double-play ball as he hits a lot of grounders. So keeping Gardner in front of Jeter still keeps that in play.
It would have been better to either put Gardner in the seventh spot after Cervelli or keep him ninth where he's done so much damage. Jeter is bound to get hot here soon. He always does, so the Fan would leave him batting lead off. Granderson should bat ninth as his production doesn't rank anything higher than that. But if he does get on, he serves the speed value just the same as Gardner did.
We'll see how it all plays out as the manager is usually smarter than the writer. But one thing is nice and that is during Spring Training, we were all wondering if Gardner would get enough at bats to show what he can do. Not only has he gotten those at bats, but now he's become a quandary as to where to bat him.
First, Gardner has been like the Yankees' secret weapon. In the ninth spot, he's like a second lead off batter and accounts for a lot of ribbies for Jeter, Swisher, Teixeira and A-Rod. Now you take that secret weapon and force him to the top of the line up where the pitcher will bear down on him more. Plus, Jeter is prone to the double-play ball as he hits a lot of grounders. So keeping Gardner in front of Jeter still keeps that in play.
It would have been better to either put Gardner in the seventh spot after Cervelli or keep him ninth where he's done so much damage. Jeter is bound to get hot here soon. He always does, so the Fan would leave him batting lead off. Granderson should bat ninth as his production doesn't rank anything higher than that. But if he does get on, he serves the speed value just the same as Gardner did.
We'll see how it all plays out as the manager is usually smarter than the writer. But one thing is nice and that is during Spring Training, we were all wondering if Gardner would get enough at bats to show what he can do. Not only has he gotten those at bats, but now he's become a quandary as to where to bat him.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Working the Math on the Granderson Deal
About 39% of the season has been completed and it seemed time to take a look at where we stand on the big trade that sent Granderson to the Yankees for Austin Jackson with Ian Kennedy going to the Diamondbacks as part of the three part deal. The Fan wants to preface this conversation with two things. First, the Fan is going to attempt to use math to figure this out. Thirty years ago, that would have been a good idea. But at the Fan's age, the math has to be suspected. Secondly, the Fan isn't going to discuss the Arizona side of the deal but will only consider two things, how did this deal affect the Yankees and the Tigers. Oh, one other thing. The Fan is also going to consider Damon signing with the Tigers opening a spot for Gardner as a trade: Gardner for Damon. Seems to make sense anyway.
So here's how it looks to date:
The Yankees' side:
Curtis Granderson will make 5.5 million this year. His current WAR gives him a current value this season of 3.9 million. With 61% of the season to go, his projected value for the season would be 10.02 million. But Granderson missed a big chunk of time. So you have to figure that in to the year's projection. If Granderson had played without missing any time, his current value would be 6.3 million. So, to give him an accurate year projection, he would be worth 13.79 million (16.19-(6.3-3.9)). Got that?
Brett Gardner will make .425 million this year and has a current value of 6.4 million giving him a year's projection of 16.45 million. The Fan doesn't see any reason why his current performance will diminish over the season. In fact, if he loses any at the plate, he'll gain it in the field where he should improve as the season goes along.
Chan Ho Park. Chan Ho Park? Yeah, the Fan is submitting that Park is Phil Coke's replacement. Yeah, he isn't a lefty, but he covers pretty much the same role that Coke did. Park is making 1.2 million this year and his current value comes to a negative number. Due to a poor start and some time lost, he's sitting with a value of -1.9 million. But Park has been decent of late and if he gets into his 2009 groove, he should finish around 3 million in value or about half of what he was worth last year. That wasn't exactly scientific, but it is what it is.
The Tigers' side
Austin Jackson is making the minimum this season or $400,000. His current value sits at 7.6 million which projects to a season value of 19.83 million. Many believe he will come down quite a bit at the plate as the season progresses, but though he has been in a slump of late that seems to bear out that belief, we'll keep the year's projection as is for now. This is just a first look, right? We'll update this as the year goes along.
Johnny Damon is making 8.0 million this season and so far has a value of 5.9. That should give him a yearly projection of 15.40 million. There are two comments about this. First, Damon is now pretty much a full time DH. Boesch is playing left most days. So part of Damon's current value comes from time played in left, where he has a 1.0 rating as a fielder. This tempted the Fan to devalue Damon's projection, but perhaps the Tigers will figure out that Damon is actually a better fielder (as of now) than Boesch who is scoring in the negative numbers in value. Plus, Damon really hasn't had one of his hot streaks at the plate yet. So the Fan will leave the projection as is.
Phil Coke is making .425 million this year and is sitting with a current value of 1.5 million. That gives him a yearly projection of 3.9 million. That sounds reasonable.
To recap all of this, the Yankees tab for the three players listed is 7.15 million in salary this year. Detroit's tab for the three players listed is 8.83 million. The Yankees dollar projection for the year (based on what the Fan hopes is good math) is 33.24 million or 4.64 million in value for every million spent. Detroit's projected value for the three players is 39.14 million or 4.43 million of value for every million spent.
This trade is much closer than it appears for this season. The Yankees are getting better value for the dollars spent, but the Tigers are getting the higher total value. This, of course, gets blown all to hell when Granderson's salary increases next year and Austin Jackson is still making just a few bucks over base. But for this year, at first glance, the trade is working out for both teams and buck for buck is pretty close. We will certainly revisit this from time to time.
The other wildcard here is the loss of Ian Kennedy to the Diamonbacks. Kennedy is making .435 million and is sitting at a value of 2.8 million, giving him a projection of 7.09 million for the year. If you throw him together with the Tigers' former Yankees, then the value per million spent jumps to 4.99 million and way past the value the Yankees are currently paying per million. But the Fan is pretty sure the Yankees are just as happy with Phil Hughes as their starter instead of Kennedy, right?
So here's how it looks to date:
The Yankees' side:
Curtis Granderson will make 5.5 million this year. His current WAR gives him a current value this season of 3.9 million. With 61% of the season to go, his projected value for the season would be 10.02 million. But Granderson missed a big chunk of time. So you have to figure that in to the year's projection. If Granderson had played without missing any time, his current value would be 6.3 million. So, to give him an accurate year projection, he would be worth 13.79 million (16.19-(6.3-3.9)). Got that?
Brett Gardner will make .425 million this year and has a current value of 6.4 million giving him a year's projection of 16.45 million. The Fan doesn't see any reason why his current performance will diminish over the season. In fact, if he loses any at the plate, he'll gain it in the field where he should improve as the season goes along.
Chan Ho Park. Chan Ho Park? Yeah, the Fan is submitting that Park is Phil Coke's replacement. Yeah, he isn't a lefty, but he covers pretty much the same role that Coke did. Park is making 1.2 million this year and his current value comes to a negative number. Due to a poor start and some time lost, he's sitting with a value of -1.9 million. But Park has been decent of late and if he gets into his 2009 groove, he should finish around 3 million in value or about half of what he was worth last year. That wasn't exactly scientific, but it is what it is.
The Tigers' side
Austin Jackson is making the minimum this season or $400,000. His current value sits at 7.6 million which projects to a season value of 19.83 million. Many believe he will come down quite a bit at the plate as the season progresses, but though he has been in a slump of late that seems to bear out that belief, we'll keep the year's projection as is for now. This is just a first look, right? We'll update this as the year goes along.
Johnny Damon is making 8.0 million this season and so far has a value of 5.9. That should give him a yearly projection of 15.40 million. There are two comments about this. First, Damon is now pretty much a full time DH. Boesch is playing left most days. So part of Damon's current value comes from time played in left, where he has a 1.0 rating as a fielder. This tempted the Fan to devalue Damon's projection, but perhaps the Tigers will figure out that Damon is actually a better fielder (as of now) than Boesch who is scoring in the negative numbers in value. Plus, Damon really hasn't had one of his hot streaks at the plate yet. So the Fan will leave the projection as is.
Phil Coke is making .425 million this year and is sitting with a current value of 1.5 million. That gives him a yearly projection of 3.9 million. That sounds reasonable.
To recap all of this, the Yankees tab for the three players listed is 7.15 million in salary this year. Detroit's tab for the three players listed is 8.83 million. The Yankees dollar projection for the year (based on what the Fan hopes is good math) is 33.24 million or 4.64 million in value for every million spent. Detroit's projected value for the three players is 39.14 million or 4.43 million of value for every million spent.
This trade is much closer than it appears for this season. The Yankees are getting better value for the dollars spent, but the Tigers are getting the higher total value. This, of course, gets blown all to hell when Granderson's salary increases next year and Austin Jackson is still making just a few bucks over base. But for this year, at first glance, the trade is working out for both teams and buck for buck is pretty close. We will certainly revisit this from time to time.
The other wildcard here is the loss of Ian Kennedy to the Diamonbacks. Kennedy is making .435 million and is sitting at a value of 2.8 million, giving him a projection of 7.09 million for the year. If you throw him together with the Tigers' former Yankees, then the value per million spent jumps to 4.99 million and way past the value the Yankees are currently paying per million. But the Fan is pretty sure the Yankees are just as happy with Phil Hughes as their starter instead of Kennedy, right?
Friday, May 28, 2010
Working the Count
In an excellent article, Thomas Boswell brings to our attention the importance of a two-strike count. He seems to prove that before there are two strikes, major league batters are Babe Ruth but after two strikes are more like Mario Mendoza. It's fascinating stuff and well worth the read. So this Fan won't be offended if you go here to read it.
The story got the Fan to thinking about how the game has changed so much that working the count and getting the pitcher to throw a lot of pitches seems to be the latest and greatest thing to do these days. It seems that in order to facilitate that new mantra, major league hitters are encouraged to take that first pitch. Heck, most little league players are told to take the first pitch, so that goes back a long way. But if the first pitch is a strike, then doesn't the hitter lose one of his best opportunities to get a hit? Isn't he giving away an opportunity?
Of course the subtle difference here is that batter who aggressively swings at the first pitch if it is a strike and the guy who "chases" the first pitch that isn't in the strike zone. But the Fan isn't talking about the latter, but the former.
The Fan was thinking about this article and about Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner of the Yankees. Jeter loves to look for a first pitch fastball and drive it somewhere. It truly is surprising that pitchers still throw him fastballs on the first pitch. Jeter has put the ball in play on the first pitch 36 times this season, the most for any count. His average on those balls in play is .417 with a .957 OPS. Predictably, as Boswell so aptly points out, once Jeter gets two strikes on him, he's much less effective. So Jeter likes to take advantage of one of his best opportunities to hit.
Brett Gardner always takes the first pitch. Always. And quite often, it's a strike. Gardner has only put six first pitch pitches in play all season or one sixth of the time that Jeter does. But on those six times, Gardner has a .500 batting average. So if Boswell is right, and this Fan knows he is, Gardner is losing precious opportunities. With two strikes, Gardner is a .250 hitter, so why make it easy for the pitcher to get there? Gardner is great when he is ahead in the count and his ability to get on base and make the pitcher throw a lot of pitches are all admirable things. But Gardner shouldn't let so many grooved fastballs go by on the first pitch, at least according to Boswell it seems.
The story got the Fan to thinking about how the game has changed so much that working the count and getting the pitcher to throw a lot of pitches seems to be the latest and greatest thing to do these days. It seems that in order to facilitate that new mantra, major league hitters are encouraged to take that first pitch. Heck, most little league players are told to take the first pitch, so that goes back a long way. But if the first pitch is a strike, then doesn't the hitter lose one of his best opportunities to get a hit? Isn't he giving away an opportunity?
Of course the subtle difference here is that batter who aggressively swings at the first pitch if it is a strike and the guy who "chases" the first pitch that isn't in the strike zone. But the Fan isn't talking about the latter, but the former.
The Fan was thinking about this article and about Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner of the Yankees. Jeter loves to look for a first pitch fastball and drive it somewhere. It truly is surprising that pitchers still throw him fastballs on the first pitch. Jeter has put the ball in play on the first pitch 36 times this season, the most for any count. His average on those balls in play is .417 with a .957 OPS. Predictably, as Boswell so aptly points out, once Jeter gets two strikes on him, he's much less effective. So Jeter likes to take advantage of one of his best opportunities to hit.
Brett Gardner always takes the first pitch. Always. And quite often, it's a strike. Gardner has only put six first pitch pitches in play all season or one sixth of the time that Jeter does. But on those six times, Gardner has a .500 batting average. So if Boswell is right, and this Fan knows he is, Gardner is losing precious opportunities. With two strikes, Gardner is a .250 hitter, so why make it easy for the pitcher to get there? Gardner is great when he is ahead in the count and his ability to get on base and make the pitcher throw a lot of pitches are all admirable things. But Gardner shouldn't let so many grooved fastballs go by on the first pitch, at least according to Boswell it seems.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Winn Lose or Draw?
So the Yankees are reportedly going to sign Randy Winn for a few million. Winn, a right-handed batter, brings a couple of possibilities to the Yankees. He either puts a right-handed bat (he is a switch hitter) in the line up instead of Gardner or Granderson (more likely the former) and it effectively closes the door on Johnny Damon's Yankee career. The other possibility is that he replaces Gardner completely.
One of the questions the signing brings is how much Randy Winn has left to offer. A career .762 OPS and Winn finished last year at .671. At the age of 35, does he have anything left, or was last year what you are going to get from now on? His BABIP was .308 which is right about where it should have been. In other words, he wasn't lucky or unlucky. So he fully deserved the low level he finished up with.
Now here is the devastating part. He is being brought in primarily to bat right handed and balance out the lefties, Granderson and Gardner. BUT, his batting line against lefties last year? Ugh, try .158/.184/.200. Now that's ugly. Even Gardner could do that with one hand, right?
So how does this move make sense? To add a bit of fairness to this evaluation, while Winn's over all BABIP was .308, his BABIP was under .200 batting from the right side. That's pretty unlucky. Winn's career numbers against lefties are .280/.332/.426. Not great, but better than last year (understatement alert!). To continue the fairness end of things, Winn posted an .812 OPS as a right-handed batter in 2008. So maybe last year was just a fluke.
Let's take a minute to talk about the other ramifications. Damon's Yankee career is dead. Scott Boras really didn't gauge this one correctly. The Yankees would have welcomed Damon back, but not for $10 million a year. Damon has been a popular player, but his wheels are falling off (lots of calf problems) and it will be nice for Yankee fans to see a throw actually make it to the infield once in a while. Damon was fun. But he is done.
Brett Gardner can't get a break can he? The Yankees get rid of his main competition in Melky Cabrera and then along comes Winn. Let's face it, the Yankees do not believe in Brett Gardner. And as much as the Fan wanted to see what happened if he got 500 at bats, it's not to be. First the Fuld dream in Chicago dies and now Gardner. The Fan could be wrong, but there is no way that Gardner gets 300 at bats now, never mind 500. The kid was simply fun to watch. Yeah, we know...fun doesn't equal stats and Gardner didn't excite anyone with his OPS or even his OBP. But he sure was a lot of fun.
Okay, bottom line: If Winn can prove that last year was a fluke (on all fronts) and can continue to bring superior defense from the corner outfield spots (he's much less effective in center), then a platoon role makes a lot of sense for the chump change the Yankees spent on him. The Yankees might miss Matsui and Damon in the post season. Or they may not. Who knows. But if last year wasn't a fluke for Winn...If the guy has simply gotten too old to be effective, then this is a bad deal. Time will tell.
One of the questions the signing brings is how much Randy Winn has left to offer. A career .762 OPS and Winn finished last year at .671. At the age of 35, does he have anything left, or was last year what you are going to get from now on? His BABIP was .308 which is right about where it should have been. In other words, he wasn't lucky or unlucky. So he fully deserved the low level he finished up with.
Now here is the devastating part. He is being brought in primarily to bat right handed and balance out the lefties, Granderson and Gardner. BUT, his batting line against lefties last year? Ugh, try .158/.184/.200. Now that's ugly. Even Gardner could do that with one hand, right?
So how does this move make sense? To add a bit of fairness to this evaluation, while Winn's over all BABIP was .308, his BABIP was under .200 batting from the right side. That's pretty unlucky. Winn's career numbers against lefties are .280/.332/.426. Not great, but better than last year (understatement alert!). To continue the fairness end of things, Winn posted an .812 OPS as a right-handed batter in 2008. So maybe last year was just a fluke.
Let's take a minute to talk about the other ramifications. Damon's Yankee career is dead. Scott Boras really didn't gauge this one correctly. The Yankees would have welcomed Damon back, but not for $10 million a year. Damon has been a popular player, but his wheels are falling off (lots of calf problems) and it will be nice for Yankee fans to see a throw actually make it to the infield once in a while. Damon was fun. But he is done.
Brett Gardner can't get a break can he? The Yankees get rid of his main competition in Melky Cabrera and then along comes Winn. Let's face it, the Yankees do not believe in Brett Gardner. And as much as the Fan wanted to see what happened if he got 500 at bats, it's not to be. First the Fuld dream in Chicago dies and now Gardner. The Fan could be wrong, but there is no way that Gardner gets 300 at bats now, never mind 500. The kid was simply fun to watch. Yeah, we know...fun doesn't equal stats and Gardner didn't excite anyone with his OPS or even his OBP. But he sure was a lot of fun.
Okay, bottom line: If Winn can prove that last year was a fluke (on all fronts) and can continue to bring superior defense from the corner outfield spots (he's much less effective in center), then a platoon role makes a lot of sense for the chump change the Yankees spent on him. The Yankees might miss Matsui and Damon in the post season. Or they may not. Who knows. But if last year wasn't a fluke for Winn...If the guy has simply gotten too old to be effective, then this is a bad deal. Time will tell.
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Pettitte Gets a New Deal
Andy Pettitte will wear the pinstripes for one more season at least. He and the Yankees agreed on a one year contract worth $11.75 million. That's a raise over last year when he proved this writer and others wrong by having a great season and a great post season. Pettitte set the all time record for post season wins and won the clinching game in all three of the Yankees' post season series. Not bad for a pitcher this writer called mediocre a year ago. He was so mediocre that he saved the Yankees high paid buttocks.
The Fan is also warming up to the Granderson idea. He is a tremendous guy and should fit right in with a winning team. Last year could have been a one-fer and he could bounce back to the outstanding player he was three seasons ago. It still doesn't seem like a good idea to give up a top prospect like Austin Jackson (isn't that a great baseball name too?). And you have to feel bad for guys like Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner who will not ever get the chance to work centerfield for the Yankees. Gardner still seems to have promise, though he is not aggressive enough on fastballs in the strike zone. But man, can that guy run and play centerfield!
In the Fan's perfect world, Granderson would play left and Gardner would play center, but that will never happen. Gardner doesn't have enough buzz and probably not enough upside for the Yankees to give him 500 at bats.
Yankee fans should feel good about Pettitte coming back to their team and providing those 200 or so solid innings as the third guy in the rotation. It's a comforting thing, you know?
The Fan is also warming up to the Granderson idea. He is a tremendous guy and should fit right in with a winning team. Last year could have been a one-fer and he could bounce back to the outstanding player he was three seasons ago. It still doesn't seem like a good idea to give up a top prospect like Austin Jackson (isn't that a great baseball name too?). And you have to feel bad for guys like Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner who will not ever get the chance to work centerfield for the Yankees. Gardner still seems to have promise, though he is not aggressive enough on fastballs in the strike zone. But man, can that guy run and play centerfield!
In the Fan's perfect world, Granderson would play left and Gardner would play center, but that will never happen. Gardner doesn't have enough buzz and probably not enough upside for the Yankees to give him 500 at bats.
Yankee fans should feel good about Pettitte coming back to their team and providing those 200 or so solid innings as the third guy in the rotation. It's a comforting thing, you know?
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Notes from the Yankees - Marlins Game
Had a chance to watch the Marlins and the Yankees on the Florida Sports Network. It was nice to see where the Marlins play again. The Fan has fond memories of seeing a game there on his fortieth birthday. The Marlins will get a new ballpark, which apparently is much needed, but memories will remain rooted in their current yard.
The first note from the game is that Josh Johnson is really, really good. He seems to be a ground ball pitcher that really throws hard. His fastball was consistently around 96 and his final pitch was a 97 MPH beauty. Plus, he has a nasty slider that busts left handed batters inside and has them swing consistently at what is basically a ball inside. It was easy to see why Johnson is so successful. After watching the game, he might be in the top five pitchers in the National League.
The slider showed a lack of proper scouting by the Yankees. It seems that video of Johnson's starts would pick up that he gets a lot of outs on that inside pitch. If the Yankees had scouted properly, they would have had a plan to lay off that pitch and force Johnson into honest strikes.
The Marlins on the other hand, showed great scouting, particularly on how they played Derek Jeter. Jeter hit several balls up the middle that would have been hits against most teams. But the Marlins bunched him toward the middle and turned those hits into several double plays in the last two days.
It just goes to show how the Yankees field a better team, but always have inferior braintrust. It's the same reason why they cannot stay with the Red Sox who always outthink them and have since 2004. If the Yankees put as much emphasis in thinking as they do in players, they would be unstoppable.
The next thing about watching the game was a reminder of just how much Tommy Hutton annoys as an announcer. The Fan hated listening to him when he did Blue Jays games and he hasn't improved with time as he now calls the Marlins' games. It's not just that he is a "homer" for the Marlins. Most team announcers are homers. It's just that his way of reading into everything the Marlins' players do with some sort of mawkish babble grinds up the insides of anyone listening.
For example, before the Marlins' closer came out to pitch the ninth, Hutton prattled on about how if the stuggling closer could do well against the Yankees in that situation, it could turn his season around. In another example, he went on about how Bonafacio--who has truly proved that he is not a valid major league ball player--could be a powerful force if he learned to bunt and take a walk. Well, duh and shoot us. But the point is that he can't and won't and still gets thrown out on steal attempts when he does get on.
Hutton is to announcing what Sweet N. Low is to coffee.
Dan Uggla should be in the minors or in the outfield. He is not a very good second baseman. Nor is he hitting that well. Uggla has been okay in the past three years because half of his hits have been for extra bases. But his comical errors in the All Star Game were not flukes.
The Yankees blew a golden opportunity in the eighth inning with Jeter up and Gardner on second and A-Rod on first. Jeter first tried to bunt and was thrown a ball. The second pitch, the runners tried a double-steal and Jeter fouled it up by fouling it off. Gardner had already stolen second. There were no outs at the time. Jeter then tries to bunt again and does a terrible job (which is surprising really) and fouls it off. Now he has two strikes. To the Fan, the obvious move was to get Gardner to third one way or another. They should have had him running with A-Rod trailing him to second. Then, when Jeter grounded up the middle, the double-play might not have been and Gardner might have scored.
Gardner should be starting in games against right handers. The Fan has said it before, the tandem of Gardner and Cabrera against righties would be much more effective in the field and in the lineup than Cabrera and Swisher. You'd get better fielding and much more pressure on teams on the basepaths.
Johnny Damon really blew this game. How he did not catch the liner by Cantu is beyond belief. And then he had a pathetic swing in a big situation. He really cost the team in this game.
The first note from the game is that Josh Johnson is really, really good. He seems to be a ground ball pitcher that really throws hard. His fastball was consistently around 96 and his final pitch was a 97 MPH beauty. Plus, he has a nasty slider that busts left handed batters inside and has them swing consistently at what is basically a ball inside. It was easy to see why Johnson is so successful. After watching the game, he might be in the top five pitchers in the National League.
The slider showed a lack of proper scouting by the Yankees. It seems that video of Johnson's starts would pick up that he gets a lot of outs on that inside pitch. If the Yankees had scouted properly, they would have had a plan to lay off that pitch and force Johnson into honest strikes.
The Marlins on the other hand, showed great scouting, particularly on how they played Derek Jeter. Jeter hit several balls up the middle that would have been hits against most teams. But the Marlins bunched him toward the middle and turned those hits into several double plays in the last two days.
It just goes to show how the Yankees field a better team, but always have inferior braintrust. It's the same reason why they cannot stay with the Red Sox who always outthink them and have since 2004. If the Yankees put as much emphasis in thinking as they do in players, they would be unstoppable.
The next thing about watching the game was a reminder of just how much Tommy Hutton annoys as an announcer. The Fan hated listening to him when he did Blue Jays games and he hasn't improved with time as he now calls the Marlins' games. It's not just that he is a "homer" for the Marlins. Most team announcers are homers. It's just that his way of reading into everything the Marlins' players do with some sort of mawkish babble grinds up the insides of anyone listening.
For example, before the Marlins' closer came out to pitch the ninth, Hutton prattled on about how if the stuggling closer could do well against the Yankees in that situation, it could turn his season around. In another example, he went on about how Bonafacio--who has truly proved that he is not a valid major league ball player--could be a powerful force if he learned to bunt and take a walk. Well, duh and shoot us. But the point is that he can't and won't and still gets thrown out on steal attempts when he does get on.
Hutton is to announcing what Sweet N. Low is to coffee.
Dan Uggla should be in the minors or in the outfield. He is not a very good second baseman. Nor is he hitting that well. Uggla has been okay in the past three years because half of his hits have been for extra bases. But his comical errors in the All Star Game were not flukes.
The Yankees blew a golden opportunity in the eighth inning with Jeter up and Gardner on second and A-Rod on first. Jeter first tried to bunt and was thrown a ball. The second pitch, the runners tried a double-steal and Jeter fouled it up by fouling it off. Gardner had already stolen second. There were no outs at the time. Jeter then tries to bunt again and does a terrible job (which is surprising really) and fouls it off. Now he has two strikes. To the Fan, the obvious move was to get Gardner to third one way or another. They should have had him running with A-Rod trailing him to second. Then, when Jeter grounded up the middle, the double-play might not have been and Gardner might have scored.
Gardner should be starting in games against right handers. The Fan has said it before, the tandem of Gardner and Cabrera against righties would be much more effective in the field and in the lineup than Cabrera and Swisher. You'd get better fielding and much more pressure on teams on the basepaths.
Johnny Damon really blew this game. How he did not catch the liner by Cantu is beyond belief. And then he had a pathetic swing in a big situation. He really cost the team in this game.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Melky Wins It Again
Perhaps all a guy needs is a little competition. Melky Cabrera fell apart last year. He wasn't spectacular in 2006 and 2007, but he was at least useful. His OPS+ of 95 and 89 were less than league average but his defense was a little better than league average and he played with enthusiasm which was something the Yankees needed. Last year, there were times when he couldn't hit a ball safely if he there were ten strikes instead of three. His OPS+ fell to 68 and he even found himself back at AAA for a while.
He came back to Spring Training and got off to a slow start. He had been told that he was in a competition for the starting centerfield position with Brett Gardner and it was all but assumed that it was Gardner's position to lose. Gardner did really well in the competition and after a slow start, Melky finished the preseason strong but not strong enough to catch Gardner.
Then Gardner started slowly in the regular season and Melky produced when called upon. Slowly, he started more than Gardner. Then exclusively. His OPS+ thus far is a hefty 137. Tonight, he had his second walk off base hit of the season. Things are going really well.
Gardner got a chance Friday night because a red hot Johnny Damon was kicked out of the game after his second straight strikeout. Apparently, Damon and the umpire didn't see eye to eye. So Gardner was put into center and Melky moved over the left. Gardner went three for three with an inside-the-park homer (his second homer in as many games) and two runs scored.
Gardner is by far the better centerfielder. His RTZ and Zone Ratings are off the charts. It still feels like the Yankees are a better team when he is in there. But you don't want to lose Melky the way he is going either. So here's what the Fan thinks the Yankees should do:
Lefty pitching: Swisher in Right, Melky in Center
Righty pitching: Melkey in Right, Gardner in Center.
Swisher does have 8 homers. But he has three hits in the entire month of May (you called it, Josh!) He's coming off a year where he batted .219. Yes, both of those numbers are incredible: three hits in May, .219 in 2008. You don't lose anything in right field when Melky plays in place of Swisher. The only position you can't play Melky is in left (according to the fielding stats).
Now that A-Rod is back and Teixeira seems to be coming around, Swisher seems less and less necessary and the Yankees might be better off with Melky and Gardner running down balls in the outfield and running around the bases. Oh, and by the way, Gardner has more homers in May than Swisher does.
That should be qualified a bit. One of the two homers Gardner has hit this year (and this month) was the inside the park homer mentioned earlier. It was one of the strangest ever. He hit a little cue shot to left and when it landed, it took a weird hop and skipped by the left fielder. By the time the fielder picked up the ball by the wall, Gardner was already at third and heading home.
That's the kind of excitement that speed brings. That speed also brings fantastic defense and the defense is much better if Gardner is in center and Melky in right.
He came back to Spring Training and got off to a slow start. He had been told that he was in a competition for the starting centerfield position with Brett Gardner and it was all but assumed that it was Gardner's position to lose. Gardner did really well in the competition and after a slow start, Melky finished the preseason strong but not strong enough to catch Gardner.
Then Gardner started slowly in the regular season and Melky produced when called upon. Slowly, he started more than Gardner. Then exclusively. His OPS+ thus far is a hefty 137. Tonight, he had his second walk off base hit of the season. Things are going really well.
Gardner got a chance Friday night because a red hot Johnny Damon was kicked out of the game after his second straight strikeout. Apparently, Damon and the umpire didn't see eye to eye. So Gardner was put into center and Melky moved over the left. Gardner went three for three with an inside-the-park homer (his second homer in as many games) and two runs scored.
Gardner is by far the better centerfielder. His RTZ and Zone Ratings are off the charts. It still feels like the Yankees are a better team when he is in there. But you don't want to lose Melky the way he is going either. So here's what the Fan thinks the Yankees should do:
Lefty pitching: Swisher in Right, Melky in Center
Righty pitching: Melkey in Right, Gardner in Center.
Swisher does have 8 homers. But he has three hits in the entire month of May (you called it, Josh!) He's coming off a year where he batted .219. Yes, both of those numbers are incredible: three hits in May, .219 in 2008. You don't lose anything in right field when Melky plays in place of Swisher. The only position you can't play Melky is in left (according to the fielding stats).
Now that A-Rod is back and Teixeira seems to be coming around, Swisher seems less and less necessary and the Yankees might be better off with Melky and Gardner running down balls in the outfield and running around the bases. Oh, and by the way, Gardner has more homers in May than Swisher does.
That should be qualified a bit. One of the two homers Gardner has hit this year (and this month) was the inside the park homer mentioned earlier. It was one of the strangest ever. He hit a little cue shot to left and when it landed, it took a weird hop and skipped by the left fielder. By the time the fielder picked up the ball by the wall, Gardner was already at third and heading home.
That's the kind of excitement that speed brings. That speed also brings fantastic defense and the defense is much better if Gardner is in center and Melky in right.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
The Strange Case of Melky Cabrera
Watched a really long Yankee/A's game today that went 14 innings and lasted over five hours. The game featured a start by Melky Cabrera, who spelled Brett Gardner with a left-hander starting for the A's. The game showed the best of the worst of Melky and left this writer just as confused about him as ever.
First, there is the lingering issue over replacing Bernie Williams. Everyone knows that Bernie slowed down and the time had come, but it was still emotionally difficult. The guy was such a steady and classy force for a long time. And he was pushed out by this awkward, graceless kid named Melky Cabrera. Cabrera was everything that Williams was not. He was emotional and voracious. He never looked smooth, yet he did okay to start with.
Perhaps part of his problem was that, in a rarity for the Yankees, this home grown youngster was rushed to the big leagues. He only has 179 At Bats in AAA and 52 of those came last year when he was demoted in the middle of the season. He hit well in AAA, but perhaps he wasn't given enough time to grow there.
He started well for the Yankees. In 2006, he hit .280 and had an OPS of .752 to go along with an OBP of .360. Those are decent numbers. His lack of power, though, left him with an OPS+ of under 100, which is league average. His numbers dropped two straight years after 2006. The OPS from 2006 to 2008: .752, .718, .641. His OBP dropped similarly: .360, .327, .301.
Watching him regularly, the appearance was that he had some good moments, but was over matched against good pitching. Some players can put the ball in play against league average to better pitchers. Melky wilted in such situation, which also explains his well-under-the-Mendoza average in playoff appearances.
Last year was pitiful for Cabrera. He seemed totally lost. He still couldn't hit good pitching, but he wasn't hitting bad pitching either. He flailed around and just looked like he didn't have a clue. Every day, it was like watching Soriano against Red Sox pitching in the playoffs.
So this year, coming into Spring Training, it was announced early that he had to fight for his job. He was going to compete with Brett Gardner for the centerfield position. Gardner, who didn't light the world on fire in his debut last year, has some skills. He is a better fielder than Cabrera, is faster on the base paths and allegedly had more patience at the plate. Plus (shhh), he's white. Apologies for bringing that up, but, hey, it's more of a factor than you may think.
The competition from the beginning was Gardner's to lose. And he didn't. He had a great spring. Melky started roughly in Spring Training and never could catch up, though his ending numbers were very good. Just not good enough to win the job from Gardner.
Today's long game was Melky Cabrera in a nutshell. He started off the night with a right-handed homer. Then he whiffed three times and looked terrible. His strikeout with the bases loaded and no out was particularly horrible. The relief pitcher was throwing the ball all over the place. He couldn't find home plate. That's why the bases were loaded. You would think that Cabrera would only swing at something fat and let the pitcher hang himself. But he didn't. First he swung at one below his knees and then looked like a Little Leaguer by striking himself out on a pitch way over his head. Pathetic.
Of course, it didn't help that his replacement pitch hit right after him and Gardner popped out weakly to the third baseman and after a Jeter pop up, the inning was over and the game droned on for another two hours.
And so we go to the fourteenth inning. There was one out and Swisher was on first with another walk. Swisher is like a younger Giambi in almost every way. Then Cabrera steps up to hit. You can't blame the Fan for rolling his eyes. A double play or a strikeout was fully expected. But instead, Melky crushed one and as soon as he hit it, everyone watching knew the game was over.
So there you have it. Six at bats, two homers, a walk and three strikeouts. That's Cabrera. Who knows. He's terrible, he's a hero. He's terrible. He's okay. It's strange. Maybe he just needs a fresh start and another team that believes in him. Or maybe he's just going to be a usable replacement player who won't necessarily kill you when he gets in there. All the Fan knows is that he is one of the strangest cases in all of baseball.
First, there is the lingering issue over replacing Bernie Williams. Everyone knows that Bernie slowed down and the time had come, but it was still emotionally difficult. The guy was such a steady and classy force for a long time. And he was pushed out by this awkward, graceless kid named Melky Cabrera. Cabrera was everything that Williams was not. He was emotional and voracious. He never looked smooth, yet he did okay to start with.
Perhaps part of his problem was that, in a rarity for the Yankees, this home grown youngster was rushed to the big leagues. He only has 179 At Bats in AAA and 52 of those came last year when he was demoted in the middle of the season. He hit well in AAA, but perhaps he wasn't given enough time to grow there.
He started well for the Yankees. In 2006, he hit .280 and had an OPS of .752 to go along with an OBP of .360. Those are decent numbers. His lack of power, though, left him with an OPS+ of under 100, which is league average. His numbers dropped two straight years after 2006. The OPS from 2006 to 2008: .752, .718, .641. His OBP dropped similarly: .360, .327, .301.
Watching him regularly, the appearance was that he had some good moments, but was over matched against good pitching. Some players can put the ball in play against league average to better pitchers. Melky wilted in such situation, which also explains his well-under-the-Mendoza average in playoff appearances.
Last year was pitiful for Cabrera. He seemed totally lost. He still couldn't hit good pitching, but he wasn't hitting bad pitching either. He flailed around and just looked like he didn't have a clue. Every day, it was like watching Soriano against Red Sox pitching in the playoffs.
So this year, coming into Spring Training, it was announced early that he had to fight for his job. He was going to compete with Brett Gardner for the centerfield position. Gardner, who didn't light the world on fire in his debut last year, has some skills. He is a better fielder than Cabrera, is faster on the base paths and allegedly had more patience at the plate. Plus (shhh), he's white. Apologies for bringing that up, but, hey, it's more of a factor than you may think.
The competition from the beginning was Gardner's to lose. And he didn't. He had a great spring. Melky started roughly in Spring Training and never could catch up, though his ending numbers were very good. Just not good enough to win the job from Gardner.
Today's long game was Melky Cabrera in a nutshell. He started off the night with a right-handed homer. Then he whiffed three times and looked terrible. His strikeout with the bases loaded and no out was particularly horrible. The relief pitcher was throwing the ball all over the place. He couldn't find home plate. That's why the bases were loaded. You would think that Cabrera would only swing at something fat and let the pitcher hang himself. But he didn't. First he swung at one below his knees and then looked like a Little Leaguer by striking himself out on a pitch way over his head. Pathetic.
Of course, it didn't help that his replacement pitch hit right after him and Gardner popped out weakly to the third baseman and after a Jeter pop up, the inning was over and the game droned on for another two hours.
And so we go to the fourteenth inning. There was one out and Swisher was on first with another walk. Swisher is like a younger Giambi in almost every way. Then Cabrera steps up to hit. You can't blame the Fan for rolling his eyes. A double play or a strikeout was fully expected. But instead, Melky crushed one and as soon as he hit it, everyone watching knew the game was over.
So there you have it. Six at bats, two homers, a walk and three strikeouts. That's Cabrera. Who knows. He's terrible, he's a hero. He's terrible. He's okay. It's strange. Maybe he just needs a fresh start and another team that believes in him. Or maybe he's just going to be a usable replacement player who won't necessarily kill you when he gets in there. All the Fan knows is that he is one of the strangest cases in all of baseball.
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