Where would sites like this one be without the great statistic sites on the Internet? Nowhere, man. Nowhere. There is so much information at our fingertips. While such information automatically leads to terrific analysis performed all over the blog-sphere, these stats can also lead to silly little posts like this one. A Tangotiger this writer is definitely not. One of the places the Fan likes to mess around on is Fangraph.com's Leader Board. Speaking of the term, spell check should really allow that to be one word. But back to the point: By clicking headings on the tab, you can quickly find leaders in losers in all the categories. Here are some of the Fan's favorite clicks:
Lowest walk percentage by qualifying batters: 1. Yuniesky Betancourt - 3.1 percent, Darwin Barney - 3.1 percent, 3. Vladimir Guerrero - 3.3 percent.
Barney and Guerrero at least hit enough to have on base percentages at league average (.320). But imagine how valuable they could be if they took a walk once in a while. Betancourt's .276 on base percentage is just another facet in a really bad year for the Brewers' shortstop. Plus, if you take away intentional walks, these players would be even worse. Barney has twelve walks all season and one was intentional. Guerrero has two intentional walks out of his twelve and Betancourt has three intentional walks out of his twelve. Who cares if the pitcher is due up next, why would you intentionally walk Betancourt?
Lowest on base percentage by qualifying batters: 1. Alex Rios - .252, 2. Miguel Olivo - .253, Alex Gonzalez - .254.
Lowest ISO (Isolated Power) by qualifying batters: 1. Chris Getz - .029, 2. Ichiro Suzuki - .048, 3. Juan Pierre - .050
Chris Getz has eight extra base hits in 94 games. Eight! 85 percent of Ichiro's hits have been singles.
Lowest strikeout rate by qualifying batters: 1. A.J. Pierzynski - 6.2 percent, 2. Jose Reyes - 6.6 percent, 3. Juan Pierre - 6.8 percent.
Highest walk percentage by qualifying batters: 1. Jose Bautista - 19.7 percent, 2. Miguel Cabrera - 16.1 percent, 3. Carlos Santana - 15.4 percent.
Yeah, that third one is surprising. Bautista has been intentionally walked 17 times, Cabrera 14 times and Santana, only five times.
Top three fielding scores for players who qualify: 1. Brett Gardner - +16.2, 2. Dustin Pedroia - +14.6, 3. Howie Kendrick - +12.4.
Kendrick is having a wonderful and overlooked season.
Top three base runners for players who qualify: 1. Elvis Andrus - +6.0, 2. Michael Bourn - +5.4, Drew Stubbs - +5.1
Lowest BABIP for players who qualify: 1. Alex Rios - .220, 2. Dan Uggla - .225, 3. Evan Longoria - .233
It's hard to believe that Evan Longoria is batting .226 on the season.
Highest BABIP for players who qualify: 1. Adrian Gonzalez - .398, 2. Michael Bourn - .380, 3. Emilio Bonifacio - .373.
Fewest runs scored for players who qualify: 1. James Loney - 26, 2. Chris Johnson - 28, 2. Adam Dunn - 28
Adam Dunn has only scored 18 times when he hasn't hit a homer!
Most runs scored: 1. Curtis Granderson - 98, 2. Jacoby Ellsbury - 87, 3. Jose Bautista and Jose Reyes - 79.
Fewest RBIs for players who qualify: 1. Jimmy Carroll - 10, 2. Kosuke Fukudome - 15, 3. Emilio Bonifacio - 18.
How about some pitching stats:
Walks per nine innings for starters who qualify: 1. Josh Tomlin - 1.02, 2. Roy Halladay - 1.04, 3. Dan Haren - 1.34.
Lowest strikeouts per nine for starters who qualify: 1. Carl Pavano - 3.72, 2. Brad Penny - 3.76, 3. Wade Davis - 4.38.
Lowest home runs per nine innings for starters who qualify: 1. Justin Masterson - 0.24, 2. Madison Bumgarner - 0.35, C.C. Sabathia - 0.36
Highest home runs per nine innings for starters who qualify: 1. Bronson Arroyo - 2.0, 2. Colby Lewis - 1.75, 3. Ted Lilly - 1.67.
Lowest ground ball percentage for starters who qualify: 1. J.A. Happ - 32.4 percent, 2. Jeremy Hellickson - 32. 6 percent, 3. Ted Lilly - 32.8 percent.
Highest ground ball percentage for starters who qualify: 1. Jake Westbrook - 61.3 percent, 2. Charlie Morton - 59.6 percent, 3. Derek Lowe - 59 percent.
Lowest FIP for starters that qualify: 1. Roy Halladay - 2.20, 2. Madison Bumgarner - 2.49, 3. Clayton Kershaw - 2.51.
Lowest left on base percentage for starters that qualify (with ERAs to prove it): 1. J.A. Happ - 62.6 percent, 2. Fausto Carmona - 63.5 percent, 3. Carl Pavano - 63.8 percent.
Highest left on base percentage for starters that qualify: 1. Ryan Vogelson - 84.7 percent, 2. Jeff Karstens - 84.5 percent, 3. Josh Beckett - 83.6 percent.
Showing posts with label Fangraphs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fangraphs. Show all posts
Thursday, August 04, 2011
Wednesday, February 02, 2011
Writer Go Round - Writers Making News
This post is not about baseball. It's about those who cover baseball. Usually the players are the ones making the news, but for one flashy week, the baseball writers are the ones making the news. The biggest shock, of course, was Rob Neyer's sudden departure from ESPN.com to SB Nation, where he is now the national baseball editor (and he still writes). That was such a bomb on the market that for a short while, Rob Neyer was the number one trending story on Twitter. Now that's amazing. But Neyer isn't the only one. The highly popular and much lauded Wezen-ball writer, Larry Granillo, is taking his keyboard over to Baseball Prospectus. In fact, BP made a flurry of additions. Fangraphs, not to be outdone, has added the dynamic Jonah Keri. What does all this mean?
For this observer, it means that some of the power is moving away from the traditional powerhouses in sports media and shifting to upstart sites that have become just as big as those former monoliths. It also means that these upstarts like BP, BR and Fangraphs are gobbling up talent. Such a talent grab has always been the way of American business. New industries arise and a few companies do it better or get luckier and get bigger than everyone else. Soon, there are less and less competitors and those large success stories swallow up the rest. There is one difference though. The Internet.
The new industry in this case is sports blogging. This Internet phenomenon has in many ways supplanted the old style media world and spun them around on their hind corners. Some have gracefully entered the new world and others have been dragged into it kicking and swinging. Former stars for newspapers and big print services are now Internet blogging stars. Some, like Joe Posnanski, have gracefully started in the old world, joined the new one and now have feet planted in both worlds. But while Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball-reference and SB Nation continue to grow and expand, they won't be able to stop what the Internet does better than anything else. New writers and new blogs will continue to appear and talent will rise to the top. It wasn't long ago that Big League Stew was just a lowly blogger with big talent and now is in the big time. There will be others.
One thing that has to shake out is the definition of good writing. Currently, those proficient with sabermetrics have a greater edge. The spreadsheet and those able to unscramble the math have carried the day. Numbers don't lie and discoveries in the numbers carry huge weight with readers around the country and rightly so. But after a while, entertaining writing will always be desirable and writing can be entertaining without a spreadsheet. For every Yin there is a Yang and writers who do the math will be rivaled by writers who are simply great at turning a phrase.
There are already too many generalities in this post and the Fan doesn't mean there to be. It isn't like there is this polar shift or something. Probably the most beloved of writers is Joe Posnanski, and though he has trained himself in the fine art of crunching numbers, his popularity is in his prose. No one does it better. In this writer's mind, he inherits Peter Gammons' crown as the king of writers. Let's just hope that he doesn't get sucked into the visual media like Peter Gammons did and thus lose something along the way.
The Rob Neyer story has been the most fascinating. He was such an institution over at ESPN.com. He was there for fifteen years! He really was the bridge between the early guys like Bill James to the new guys like Dave Cameron. What Neyer did best was discover talent. He was sort of like Johnny Carson. If a comic made Carson laugh, he became big. If Rob Neyer thought you had the writing and numbers savvy, he would promote these small bloggers in his links columns and careers were made.
The Fan thinks this move will be good for Neyer. We've already seen some of his best writing in years this past week with his last couple of posts on ESPN.com and his first couple of posts on SB Nation. In this Fan's view, Rob Neyer got a little stale in his last two or three years at ESPN.com. He became less of a writer and more of a commenter on other people's writing (good or bad). Everyone, no matter how good they are, needs a change of pace once in a while. This should be a new breath for Rob Neyer.
It's unfortunate that in the wake he left behind at ESPN.com, that site's readers are not being kind to the writing being performed in Neyer's old house. ESPN.com has had a couple of revolving writers add posts in the Sweet Spot and the comments haven't been kind. And that's unfair. This writer happened to think both pieces were quite good. Look, nobody is going to replace the original. Nobody could replace Johnny Carson. But the shows that followed found their own voice and gained a good following. Give it time. ESPN.com has too much at stake.
After all this is said and done, how does the old Fan feel about all this? It's EXCITING! Yeah, it is. Many of these writers have sat in the basement like this Fan does and cranked away and built followings and created careers. There is certainly room for more. There's no reason to not try and chase the old American Dream. The Internet does provide a level playing field. And this writer is leveling his best shot. And if this is as good as it ever gets, so be it. As long as the experience is enjoyable, the Fan will keep typing. The success stories like Jonah Keri, Dave Cameron, "Duk" and so many others gives hope that if we keep on plugging, good things can happen. Best of luck to all those who found new jobs and new homes this week. Thanks for the inspiration.
For this observer, it means that some of the power is moving away from the traditional powerhouses in sports media and shifting to upstart sites that have become just as big as those former monoliths. It also means that these upstarts like BP, BR and Fangraphs are gobbling up talent. Such a talent grab has always been the way of American business. New industries arise and a few companies do it better or get luckier and get bigger than everyone else. Soon, there are less and less competitors and those large success stories swallow up the rest. There is one difference though. The Internet.
The new industry in this case is sports blogging. This Internet phenomenon has in many ways supplanted the old style media world and spun them around on their hind corners. Some have gracefully entered the new world and others have been dragged into it kicking and swinging. Former stars for newspapers and big print services are now Internet blogging stars. Some, like Joe Posnanski, have gracefully started in the old world, joined the new one and now have feet planted in both worlds. But while Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball-reference and SB Nation continue to grow and expand, they won't be able to stop what the Internet does better than anything else. New writers and new blogs will continue to appear and talent will rise to the top. It wasn't long ago that Big League Stew was just a lowly blogger with big talent and now is in the big time. There will be others.
One thing that has to shake out is the definition of good writing. Currently, those proficient with sabermetrics have a greater edge. The spreadsheet and those able to unscramble the math have carried the day. Numbers don't lie and discoveries in the numbers carry huge weight with readers around the country and rightly so. But after a while, entertaining writing will always be desirable and writing can be entertaining without a spreadsheet. For every Yin there is a Yang and writers who do the math will be rivaled by writers who are simply great at turning a phrase.
There are already too many generalities in this post and the Fan doesn't mean there to be. It isn't like there is this polar shift or something. Probably the most beloved of writers is Joe Posnanski, and though he has trained himself in the fine art of crunching numbers, his popularity is in his prose. No one does it better. In this writer's mind, he inherits Peter Gammons' crown as the king of writers. Let's just hope that he doesn't get sucked into the visual media like Peter Gammons did and thus lose something along the way.
The Rob Neyer story has been the most fascinating. He was such an institution over at ESPN.com. He was there for fifteen years! He really was the bridge between the early guys like Bill James to the new guys like Dave Cameron. What Neyer did best was discover talent. He was sort of like Johnny Carson. If a comic made Carson laugh, he became big. If Rob Neyer thought you had the writing and numbers savvy, he would promote these small bloggers in his links columns and careers were made.
The Fan thinks this move will be good for Neyer. We've already seen some of his best writing in years this past week with his last couple of posts on ESPN.com and his first couple of posts on SB Nation. In this Fan's view, Rob Neyer got a little stale in his last two or three years at ESPN.com. He became less of a writer and more of a commenter on other people's writing (good or bad). Everyone, no matter how good they are, needs a change of pace once in a while. This should be a new breath for Rob Neyer.
It's unfortunate that in the wake he left behind at ESPN.com, that site's readers are not being kind to the writing being performed in Neyer's old house. ESPN.com has had a couple of revolving writers add posts in the Sweet Spot and the comments haven't been kind. And that's unfair. This writer happened to think both pieces were quite good. Look, nobody is going to replace the original. Nobody could replace Johnny Carson. But the shows that followed found their own voice and gained a good following. Give it time. ESPN.com has too much at stake.
After all this is said and done, how does the old Fan feel about all this? It's EXCITING! Yeah, it is. Many of these writers have sat in the basement like this Fan does and cranked away and built followings and created careers. There is certainly room for more. There's no reason to not try and chase the old American Dream. The Internet does provide a level playing field. And this writer is leveling his best shot. And if this is as good as it ever gets, so be it. As long as the experience is enjoyable, the Fan will keep typing. The success stories like Jonah Keri, Dave Cameron, "Duk" and so many others gives hope that if we keep on plugging, good things can happen. Best of luck to all those who found new jobs and new homes this week. Thanks for the inspiration.
Wednesday, October 06, 2010
Some Questions About Fielding Metrics
This is going to be one of those posts that frustrate you by posing questions without giving the answers. The Fan fully recognizes his in advance. And the reason this post will work out that way is because the Fan doesn't know the answers. These are simply questions that baffle the poster. And the reason for the questions in the first place is because the two most respected sources for WAR (Wins Above Replacement), Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference.com completely disagree far too often and the disagreement comes down to fielding. Both organizations use different fielding metric sources to equate the fielding part of the WAR equation. Baseball-reference.com has heard about these disparities so often that it has taken the drastic step of listing WAR, bWAR (batting WAR) and fWAR (fielding WAR) for those who want to rate players without the distraction of the fielding metrics.
Take for example, the case of Robinson Cano. The Yankees' second baseman was four in the majors in assists and made three errors all year. But according to Fangraphs, he's only the ninth best fielding second baseman in the majors. They place his fielding as a negative value at -0.6. How can his fielding be a negative value!? Baseball-reference.com doesn't really help Cano's case either. They flat lined him at 0.0. In other words, he didn't provide any value for his defense. How is that possible? And Cano's case isn't the only one. His infield-mate, Teixeira, also gets no love from fielding metrics despite scouts raving about him. Yeah, the Fan knows the observation versus stat argument and agrees that the stats usually come out ahead. But clearly something is deficient here.
So what are the questions then? Okay. Here they are. But remember, they don't have answers and thus frustrate not only the readers of the post, but the one who writes it:
Those are this Fan's questions. They may very well be very stupid questions and this post may well be chewed up on some baseball think-tank site (and yes, that's happened before. Just do a search on the Flagrant Fan and you'll find them). The fielding metrics may already take that stuff into account. But the Fan doesn't know that and what if it doesn't? Either way, the fielding metrics are not trusted by a large percentage of writers these days and it seems for good reason. Signs point to even better ways of measuring fielders with FieldF/X. That would be welcomed. Any improvement would sure go a long way to properly value a player.
Take for example, the case of Robinson Cano. The Yankees' second baseman was four in the majors in assists and made three errors all year. But according to Fangraphs, he's only the ninth best fielding second baseman in the majors. They place his fielding as a negative value at -0.6. How can his fielding be a negative value!? Baseball-reference.com doesn't really help Cano's case either. They flat lined him at 0.0. In other words, he didn't provide any value for his defense. How is that possible? And Cano's case isn't the only one. His infield-mate, Teixeira, also gets no love from fielding metrics despite scouts raving about him. Yeah, the Fan knows the observation versus stat argument and agrees that the stats usually come out ahead. But clearly something is deficient here.
So what are the questions then? Okay. Here they are. But remember, they don't have answers and thus frustrate not only the readers of the post, but the one who writes it:
- If a good third baseman routinely ranges deep to this left (as he is encouraged to do) and continuously snares the ball in front of the shortstop, does that count against the shortstop since he didn't field the ball in his zone?
- The same thing applies for first baseman ranging far to the right to field a ball in the second baseman's zone (remember the Cabrera play in the infamous Galarraga one-hitter?). Does the second baseman get a minus for not fielding that ball in his zone?
- The centerfielder is told to run down balls no matter where they are hit. So he routinely races to right or left to make a catch. Is that a minus for the left fielder or right fielder for not making the play in their zones?
- Big Papi is at the plate and a shift is put on and the shortstop is playing on the right side of the second base bag. Papi hits the ball right to him. Does that count against the second baseman since the shortstop fielded the ball in his zone?
- Say a shortstop ranges far up the middle and dives and stops the ball but can't get the runner out at second. In the meantime, his efforts kept the runner on second from scoring as he would have if the ball had gone into the outfield. Does that count against the shortstop? He didn't get an out, right?
- A ball is slammed up the middle but the pitcher gets a good piece of it with his glove. Unfortunately, the ball trickles over to third and the third baseman tries to bare hand it because that is his only shot at getting the runner, but he misses it. Does that dink against the third baseman in the fielding stats?
Those are this Fan's questions. They may very well be very stupid questions and this post may well be chewed up on some baseball think-tank site (and yes, that's happened before. Just do a search on the Flagrant Fan and you'll find them). The fielding metrics may already take that stuff into account. But the Fan doesn't know that and what if it doesn't? Either way, the fielding metrics are not trusted by a large percentage of writers these days and it seems for good reason. Signs point to even better ways of measuring fielders with FieldF/X. That would be welcomed. Any improvement would sure go a long way to properly value a player.
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