A Little Story About Hal Kelleher

I received a comment a few days ago on an old post of mine about the worst batting games of all time. It was fun to read the old post and see that I used to be a pretty darned good writer. Upon reading the post, the thought struck me about who pitched the worst relief outing in history. What relief outing was so bad that it blew the doors off the game. Once I had an idea of how to proceed, I kind of fell in like with one of our main characters. Before we get to him, let's look at some lists.

Just like the worst batting game of all time, I figured the best way to approach the worst relief appearance was the same way I approached the worst batting games. It is not enough to simply come into a game and just ralph all over the place with runs galore. The failure has to mean something too. The former would be like a position player coming in to pitch in a 15-2 game and getting hammered so it was then 21-2. The way I feel to measure the latter is by either WPA (Win Probability Added) or RE24 (Base-out Runs Saved). I quickly learned that the latter would not work here.

My criteria is a relief appearance of an inning or less and there were four relief efforts in history that scored over -10 in RE24. They were:

1. Hal Kelleher - May 5, 1938:  -11.491 RE24
2. Reggie Grabowski - Aug 4, 1934:  -10.404 RE24
3. Pete Appleton - Aug 10, 1930:  -10.391 RE24
4. Travis Harper - June 21, 2005:  -10.070 RE24

Kelleher came into his game with his team already behind, 8-2. Grabowski's team was losing, 10-4, when he came in to his massacre. None of Appleton's eleven runs were earned (how is THAT possible?). Only Harper's game mattered as his team was a run ahead when he entered the game and gave up his memorable four homers to the Yankees.

No, this stat seems to measure what a pitcher does with men on base and is not about the game situation. Again, we can call the most runs allowed in an inning the worst inning of pitched baseball. But I maintain that you have to add into that equation how important the butt-kicking was in the scheme of the game. So let's look at WPA.

There have been eight relief outings that were so bad and at such a bad time that they were worth more than a negative Win all by themselves. In other words, the Win Probability Added was worse than -1. As you can imagine, most were blown saves or wins.

1. Paul Derringer - Sep 8, 1937:  -1.237
2. Mark Davis - Jun 8, 1989:  -1.229
3. Pete Ladd - Sep 18, 1983:  -1.212
4. Jeff Brantley - Jul 16, 2000:  -1.099
5. Alfredo Aceves - Aug 23, 2012:  -1.078
6. Brandon Lyon - Apr 7, 2009:  -1.057
7. Ron Davis - Apr 20, 1986:  -1.052
8. Todd Jones - Jun 1, 2007:  -1.014

All the dates on both lists are linked so you can go look at the game's boxscore yourself if you'd like. Both lists compiled using baseball-reference.com List tool

Both Derringer and Mark Davis blew a lead in the bottom of the ninth and then blew another lead in the bottom of the tenth! Pete Ladd, pitching for the Brewers came into the eighth inning against the Orioles with a three-run lead. Ladd allowed all of his inherited runners to score and then some as Eddie Murray hit a grand slam to put the Orioles up. The Brewers rallied to tie the game in the ninth only to have Ladd give up a walk-off single to John Stefero.

In a wild interleague game between the Yankees and the Phillies, Andy Pettitte started and was bombed out. He was rescued in a good outing by Doc Gooden and the game went back and forth. The Phillies had a 6-1 lead heading into the bottom of the ninth. The Phillies' Steve Schrenk and Bryan Ward quickly made a mess of that and Brantley came in with the bases loaded and needed to record one out to seal the victory. He could not do it as he gave up a single to tie the game before getting the third out. The Phillies took a two-run lead in the top of the tenth off of Mariano Rivera, but Brantley did not retire a batter in the bottom of the tenth. A walk, a HBP and three straight singles sealed Brantley's and the Phillies' fate.

Aceves gave up the most runs on this list as the Red Sox had a big lead only to have Aceves cough it all up against Angels. Lyon's game was another where he as a pitcher gave up the tying run in the eighth and then blew the lead in the ninth. Ron Davis and Todd Jones spectacularly did the same to their teams in their games.

So these eight games would fit my criteria as the worst relief inning in history. But if you want to talk about pure runs allowed in a single inning, non-dependent on circumstances, you come back to Hal Kelleher, who gave up twelve runs in his one inning of work. He was tied a decade later by Bubba Harris of the Philadelphia Athletics against the Boston Red Sox. You may prefer to call these the worst inning of relief pitching in history and I would not argue.

If you want to go by multiple innings, four pitchers allowed fourteen earned runs in multiple inning relief outings. That is only two more than Kelleher and Harris gave up in just one inning. So I am less willing to go with any of those four.

Sometimes, doing this kind of list building can draw you to one of the characters on your lists. For me, Hal Kelleher is that guy. When I went to his b-ref page, his fiasco of a game was the last game of his MLB career. He had pitched parts of four seasons and made his debut for the Philadelphia Phillies on September 17, 1935 in a start against the Cincinnati Reds. Kelleher threw a complete game shutout.

I would lay great odds that he is the only pitcher in history to have a CG shutout as his first appearance and a twelve earned run appearance as his last. Of course, his season began in 1935 as a late season call-up. He pitched three times, all as a starter. His first two games were complete games. He won his second game but it wasn't as pretty. He did not get a decision in his third despite throwing seven strong innings. He looked like a pitcher with promise. But the story did not go that way.

I wanted to know this guy. So I looked at where he came from and what his birth date was. He was born in Philadelphia on June 24, 1913. That is a year earlier than what is listed on b-ref. His father, John, was the son of Irish immigrants and was a manager at a hosiery manufacturer and a former policeman. John owned a house on 23rd Street that was worth $8,000. That was pretty good for those days. This information comes from the 1930 US census report. Harold Joseph "Hal" Kelleher was 16 at the time and lived with his father along with five of his other grown siblings (a policeman, a plumber, a stenographer and two who were chauffeurs!)

Hal Kelleher was just twenty years old when he was signed by the Phillies as a hometown kid and was assigned to Hazelton of the New York-Penn League. All the records can tell us is that he pitched ten games with them in 1934 and he finished with an 0-2 record in 28 innings.

Kelleher opened the season with Hazelton in 1935 and pitched 215 innings, by far the most work in a season he would accumulate. He finished his season in the minors with a 13-15 record and a 4.83 ERA. Regardless of these pedestrian numbers, he was a September call-up and pitched relatively well. That he was a hometown kid probably worked in his favor.

Kelleher pitched with the Phillies for part of the season in 1936 and did not perform well. He had a WHIP over 2 in 44 innings of work and had a 5.32 ERA. His win-loss record was 0-5. The pitcher split the season in the International League playing for Baltimore (the Orioles). He was even worse there in 33 innings.

Despite the struggles, he remained with the Phillies for the entire 1937 season. He pitched in 27 games and compiled 58.1 innings. He started twice and usually made mop up appearances the rest of the season. The numbers were not pretty. He finished, 2-4, with an ERA over six. Still, his walks and hits per inning were down a bit from the previous season. Kelleher had a nice stretch from mid-July to the middle of August after a rough start of the season. But his finish was awful as he gave up multiple runs and three of his losses in his last four appearances of that season.

And still, the Phillies kept him to start the fateful 1938 season. Was it that hometown thing? Did he show some sort of promise in an unseen way? Who knows. His season started okay. He had a mop up five innings of a lopsided loss where he pitched five and a third innings and gave up only two runs.

His second outing went well. The Phillies faced the Boston Bees (managed by Casey Stengel) and lost, 3-1. Kelleher pitched a clean eighth inning to give his team a chance to come back in the top of the ninth. But they did not. Still, after two outings, his ERA was 2.84. His last four outings, however, did not go well.

His third outing did not credit a run against him, but he only faced one batter and walked him. It was in the 12th inning against Brooklyn and after two outs, fellow Irishman, Bill Hallahan loaded the bases on a walk, a double and an intentional walk. In came Hal Kelleher to face Buddy Hassett and Kelleher walked him to bring in the walk off run.

A day later, the Phillies were facing the Bees again and held an 8-7 lead to start the top of the seventh. Tommy Reis walked the bases loaded and Kelleher came in with those bases loaded and no outs. He walked Dom DiMaggio to tie the score and he was pulled. DiMaggio later came in to score thus charging a run to Kelleher. The Bees scored six times that inning to blow the game up.

Four days later, the Phillies were beating the Cubs, 6-3 in the eight. After Claude Passaeu struggled including giving up the third run, Hal Kelleher was brought in and once again, and for the third straight appearance, faced one batter and walked him. Al Smith was brought in and saved the Phillies and the game.

To recap, Hal Kelleher started the season with two good outings. Then faced one batter thrice in the span of five days and walked that batter each time. That brings us to the fateful last game of his MLB career against the same Cubs the very next day. As mentioned earlier, the Phillies were already losing, 9-1 when Kelleher entered the game in the bottom of the eighth. Here is the sequence from there:

Single, walk, single (run), force-out (run), single, walk, double (2 runs), single (2 runs), single (1 run), walk, single (run), strikeout (!), single (run), triple (2 runs), single (run), popup to the catcher.

It must have been tough to walk off the mound and to the dugout after that performance. Twelve runs on ten hits and three walks. All the runs were earned and it sent his season ERA to 18.41. Nineteen days later, the Phillies sold his contract to the St. Louis Cardinals and the hometown kid was gone.

He pitched 136 combined innings for the Cardinals two Double-A affiliates the rest of that season with mixed results. However, he only pitched sixteen total innings for the Cardinals' minor league teams and was terrible in 1939 and they cut him lose. But unlike what reads in his obituary, Hal Kelleher had a comeback of sorts.

To find out what Hal Kelleher was doing in 1940, we look at two documents: The 1940 census and his WWII draft card, also from 1940. The census shows that his sister, Helen, the stenographer, was now the head of the household in the same 23rd Street house in Philly. Though there are no pitching records for Hal for 1940, he is listed as a baseball pitcher for his occupation. Helen worked 52 weeks and made $1,000. Hal worked 32 weeks and made $1,800. Their father had died in 1932 and the mother was gone as well. Listed in the household along with two other siblings were Hal's wife, Agnes, and their young daughter.

The 1940 WWII draft card gives good information too. It lists Hal as working for Pep Boys! That company began in Philadelphia in 1929 and had not yet blown out to the company it is now, and thus Hal probably knew Manny, Moe and Jack! It also showed Hal to be six feet tall and 175 pounds with blue eyes and brown hair.

The draft status probably caused Hal some consternation and later that year, he began his career with the Philadelphia police department (according to his obituary). There is no professional record of Kelleher playing in 1940, 1941, 1942 or 1943. But his baseball-reference.com page shows he came back to play in the minors in 1944 for the Brooklyn Dodgers' minor league affiliate for the Interstate League.

It seems the time away did him good as he had an excellent season for the Trenton Packers. Kelleher went 12-7 in 19 games (a decision for every game!?) with a 2.53 ERA. He cut his walk rate way down and his WHIP was a terrific 1.089. The Dodgers never called him up.

He pitched again for the Packers in 1945 and then was sent to pitch in Montreal for the Royals of the International league. He did not fare as well as the season before. Combined, he went 7-10 in 155 innings. Kelleher did pitch to a 2.58 ERA for the Packers where he went 6-8. But he got lit up in Montreal, which was a higher league. And that was the end of that. His professional career was again over.

Hal Kelleher worked for the Philadelphia Police Department until 1964 and then qualified for retirement. He was stationed at the 24th and Wolf Street station. After his duties as a police officer, he worked as the District Supervisor for the Police Athletic League for six years and also worked as an athletic trainer at La Salle University. According to his obituary, he also worked for the Provident Mutual Insurance Company until he retired in 1976.

He retired to Avalon, New Jersey, a coastal community just north of Wildwood. He had twelve years of retirement and then died at Cape May Courthouse in the southernmost tip of New Jersey and was buried in Avalon. He was survived by his wife, daughter and had four grandchildren.

We tend to focus on the negative in sports and Kelleher certainly had a negative with the distinction of having the worst relief appearance in the history of baseball. But it also seems he lived a full and productive life beyond his baseball career.

Home cooking gone bad

My son made a good observation last night. He grew up with an old man who loved baseball and he inherited that love. Anyway, he was looking at the AL East in particular and observed that a lot of teams did not seem to be taking advantage of their home field. I looked at the top two teams in each division and out of those twelve teams, six had a better record on the road than at home. That seemed odd to me.

I knew that the Yankees were not doing well at home. But neither is Boston. The Tigers are not doing well at home. The Brewers, traditionally a team that dominates at home and stinks on the road is doing as well as they are because this year, they are killing it on the road much more than at home.

That led me to do a little digging on the home - road splits over the years. And what I found is that thus far, 2014 is in historic territory. I looked at pitching splits because they include the won-loss records for the last 25 seasons. This season's home record win percentage of .512 is historically low. Most years range anywhere from .526 to as high as .559.

Here is a chart that shows what I mean. This is the home winning percentage of pitchers over time:

Notice that there was only one year that came close: 1994. The winning percentage that year for home pitchers (and thus, their teams) was .517. 

So what does this mean? I have no idea frankly. Is this another symptom of the parity that everyone is talking about? It could be. I just thought it was interesting.

The walkless nine

Every year at the start of the season, a couple of batters pique the interest as to when they will record their first base on balls of the season. This season, we have nine candidates we will be watching to see who goes the longest this season without getting a walk. Some of the names are surprising due to their histories. And others might be explainable due to how hot they are hitting. After all, who wants to walk when hits are screaming off the bat.

So who will be the last man standing of the following nine (minimum of 30 PAs)?

• Melky Cabrera: The Melkman is off to a good start with the bat. He is batting .327 and already has four homers. Who wouldn't want to swing the bat with that kind of hitting going on? 55 PAs
• Dustin Pedroia: This one is a complete surprise as Pedroia has traditionally walked over 9% of the time in his career and was over 10% last year. He is only batting .237 though. The Red Sox moved him up to the lead-off position yesterday to get his mind into taking more pitches. It did not work.  55 PAs.
• Juan Uribe - The Dodgers' third baseman has never liked to walk much, but the last two years he was over 7%. He is off to a real hot start with the bat and is batting .367. Swing batta batta. 49 plate appearances.
• Aramis Ramirez: A-Ram is another who is off to a hot start with a .383 batting average. Walks need not apply. Plus the team is on an eight game winning streak. So why mess it up? Ramirez has already driven in ten runs. 47 plate appearances.
• Khris Davis: Davis is having an odd season so far. But again, he plays with Ramirez on the Brewers and they are hot. So why worry? Davis is only hitting .269, so his lack of walks makes his on-base percentage look pretty bad. He is striking out at a 32.6% clip without walks. That's an ugly combo. 43 PAs.
• Jonathan Schoop: Schoop made the Orioles team heading north because Machado was not ready to play. He is a top prospect and has looked good at times and bad at times. Having no walks is not a great thing, but is something that happens quite a bit to first year players. He has a .243 BA and a .243 OBP. 37 PAs.
• Steve Lombardozzi: This is the new Orioles' second baseman's regular MO as he only has a 3.2% career walk rate. Having two guys in the lineup with him and Schoop not walking is a problem. Lombardozzi does have a .306 batting average and has been hit once with a pitch. 37 PAs.
• Mitch Moreland: Moreland is the Rangers' DH this season and as such is going up there swinging and hacking. He has no walks and a 30.6% strikeout rate. The Rangers won't put up with that for long.  36 PAs.
• Mike Zunino: The Mariners' young catcher has a wOBA over .360, so his lack of walks have not been a problem yet. Again, it is typical for a young player getting his first shot to swing at everything. And that is what Zunino is doing. 32 PAs.

There are your nine walkless wonders. Of the nine, only Zunino, Schoop and Ramirez are in the top ten at swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. So they are the best candidates we watch as the last MLB batter without a walk.

A little fun with numbers

Baseball is a game of numbers and statistics. And with the season still being on a bit of the short sample size variety, some strange things happen. Here is a short list of some oddities this season has so far shown us:

• Josh Hamilton has hit 17 homers. The Padres have hit 12 as a team. The Cubs have only hit 18 combined and the Twins have hit 19 as a team.
• The Padres have as many triples as homers. Each at 12.
• The Orioles have only nine stolen bases all season and have been thrown out nine times in other attempts. They are the only team not above a .500 percent success rate.
• Derek Jeter has played 32 games and has 51 hits. Clint Barmes, Sean Rodriguez and Brendan Ryan have played a combined 90 games and have a combined 50 hits.
• Carlos Beltran has hit as many homers as Matt Kemp and has driven in more runs.
• Not only has Clint Barmes only had 15 hits and is batting only .158, he also has the lowest walk rate among qualified batters at 1.0 percent. He has walked once all season and has more homers than walks with two. His on-base percentage is .192.
• Adam Dunn's current OPS+ is 106 points higher than last season.
• The Oakland Athletics are batting .216 collectively.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have a team on-base percentage of only .279. They are scoring less than three runs a game this season.
• Albert Pujols' OPS after 32 games is lower than Adam Dunn's was last year after 32 games. .521 to .583.
• Mark Reynolds of the Orioles has 36 strikeouts this season and 35 combined hits and walks. If he stays on this pace for all three, it will be his third straight season with more strikeouts than combined hits and walks.
• Orlando Hudson has already hit five triples but has no doubles. Last year, he hit three triples all season.
• Seventeen of Joey Votto's 31 hits have been for extra bases.
• Freddie Freeman leads the majors with a 37.8 line drive percentage but is only batting .283.
• Kurt Suzuki is third in baseball with a 52.9 percent fly ball rate. None of them have gone over the fence.
• Almost 45 percent of Josh Hamilton's fly balls have gone over the fence.
• Gaby Sanchez only has a line drive percentage of 7.6 percent, easily the lowest in the majors.
• Emilio Bonifacio leads the league with seven bunt base hits. He also has seven infield hits.
• Derek Jeter has only hit 17 fly balls all season. Five of them have been homers.
• Carlos Ruiz, who is having a fantastic season for the Phillies, has made contact with 99.1 percent of all pitches he has swung at in the strike zone.
• Jed Lowrie has only swung at 13.8 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. Now that is patience.
• Danny Valencia swung at 40.1 percent of pitches out of the strike zone but only 50.5 percent of pitches in the strike zone. He was sent to the minors this week.
• The three lowest percentages of swings in the strike zone are all Twins: Valencia, Carroll and Mauer.
• 30 of Emilio Bonifacio's 31 hits have been singles. He has an ISO of .008 and a slugging percentage of .254.
• But Bonifacio doesn't have the league's lowest slugging percentage. That belongs to Marlon Byrd at .206. Theo really stuck it to his old team.
• And last but not least, the player with the lowest fWAR is Brennan Boesch at -1.1. Albert Pujols and Chone Figgins are tied for second worse at -0.9.

Please Answer These Sabermetric Questions

Jay Jaffe over at the Pinstriped Bible wrote a piece today that raised questions about some sabermetric values that exist today. Jaffe was talking about Curtis Granderson and his defense and mentioned in passing that Brett Gardner has so much range that many times Gardner catches balls in Granderson's "zone." Granderson seems quite rangy himself, so how much does Gardner's range hurt Granderson's fielding statistics? The trouble with this writer asking the questions is that this writer often doesn't know what he is talking about. But still. It's too bad an average Joe like this writer can't lock a Dave Cameron or somebody in a room and let them explain this stuff.

So here are this layman's uneducated (isn't that redundant?) questions:

1. Should a fielder have a "chance" that counts on his fielding stats if someone else catches the ball and makes the out? There is a statistic called out of zone percentage. Say Gardner has a 4 percent percentage out of his zone, shouldn't at least some of that be given back to Granderson somehow? If a fielder makes plays out of his zone and those stats are counted, shouldn't we know where out of the zone those catches were made? Can you see a scenario some day (especially since these numbers start to factor into arbitration hearings, etc.) where fielders start getting in arguments over where the fielder catches the ball? It would be like a volleyball game. "Hey, that was my ball!"

2. Say the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees have 28 blowout games apiece. In theory, once a team is so far ahead, they stop taking the extra base on a hit from first or second. They settle for a single instead of a double or a double instead of a triple. Should those times be counted against a base runner when say, a player from the San Francisco Giants always plays in close games and would always take the extra base when needed? Dustin Pedroia's base running score looks awfully low for a guy that really plays with reckless abandon.

That's it for now. Just two things this Fan wishes someone would answer. They may be idiotic questions. But that's what happens when they let any old idiot write a post.

Messing Around on Fangraphs' Leader Board

Where would sites like this one be without the great statistic sites on the Internet? Nowhere, man. Nowhere. There is so much information at our fingertips. While such information automatically leads to terrific analysis performed all over the blog-sphere, these stats can also lead to silly little posts like this one. A Tangotiger this writer is definitely not. One of the places the Fan likes to mess around on is Fangraph.com's Leader Board. Speaking of the term, spell check should really allow that to be one word. But back to the point: By clicking headings on the tab, you can quickly find leaders in losers in all the categories. Here are some of the Fan's favorite clicks:

Lowest walk percentage by qualifying batters: 1. Yuniesky Betancourt - 3.1 percent, Darwin Barney - 3.1 percent, 3. Vladimir Guerrero - 3.3 percent.

Barney and Guerrero at least hit enough to have on base percentages at league average (.320). But imagine how valuable they could be if they took a walk once in a while. Betancourt's .276 on base percentage is just another facet in a really bad year for the Brewers' shortstop. Plus, if you take away intentional walks, these players would be even worse. Barney has twelve walks all season and one was intentional. Guerrero has two intentional walks out of his twelve and Betancourt has three intentional walks out of his twelve. Who cares if the pitcher is due up next, why would you intentionally walk Betancourt?

Lowest on base percentage by qualifying batters: 1. Alex Rios - .252, 2. Miguel Olivo - .253, Alex Gonzalez - .254.

Lowest ISO (Isolated Power) by qualifying batters: 1. Chris Getz - .029, 2. Ichiro Suzuki - .048, 3. Juan Pierre - .050

Chris Getz has eight extra base hits in 94 games. Eight! 85 percent of Ichiro's hits have been singles.

Lowest strikeout rate by qualifying batters: 1. A.J. Pierzynski - 6.2 percent, 2. Jose Reyes - 6.6 percent, 3. Juan Pierre - 6.8 percent.

Highest walk percentage by qualifying batters: 1. Jose Bautista - 19.7 percent, 2. Miguel Cabrera - 16.1 percent, 3. Carlos Santana - 15.4 percent.

Yeah, that third one is surprising. Bautista has been intentionally walked 17 times, Cabrera 14 times and Santana, only five times.

Top three fielding scores for players who qualify: 1. Brett Gardner - +16.2, 2. Dustin Pedroia - +14.6, 3. Howie Kendrick - +12.4.

Kendrick is having a wonderful and overlooked season.

Top three base runners for players who qualify: 1. Elvis Andrus - +6.0, 2. Michael Bourn - +5.4, Drew Stubbs - +5.1

Lowest BABIP for players who qualify: 1. Alex Rios - .220, 2. Dan Uggla - .225, 3. Evan Longoria - .233

It's hard to believe that Evan Longoria is batting .226 on the season.

Highest BABIP for players who qualify: 1. Adrian Gonzalez - .398, 2. Michael Bourn - .380, 3. Emilio Bonifacio - .373.

Fewest runs scored for players who qualify: 1. James Loney - 26, 2. Chris Johnson - 28, 2. Adam Dunn - 28

Adam Dunn has only scored 18 times when he hasn't hit a homer!

Most runs scored: 1. Curtis Granderson - 98, 2. Jacoby Ellsbury - 87, 3. Jose Bautista and Jose Reyes - 79.

Fewest RBIs for players who qualify: 1. Jimmy Carroll - 10, 2. Kosuke Fukudome - 15, 3. Emilio Bonifacio - 18.

How about some pitching stats:

Walks per nine innings for starters who qualify: 1. Josh Tomlin - 1.02, 2. Roy Halladay - 1.04, 3. Dan Haren - 1.34.

Lowest strikeouts per nine for starters who qualify: 1. Carl Pavano - 3.72, 2. Brad Penny - 3.76, 3. Wade Davis - 4.38.

Lowest home runs per nine innings for starters who qualify: 1. Justin Masterson - 0.24, 2. Madison Bumgarner - 0.35, C.C. Sabathia - 0.36

Highest home runs per nine innings for starters who qualify: 1. Bronson Arroyo - 2.0, 2. Colby Lewis - 1.75, 3. Ted Lilly - 1.67.

Lowest ground ball percentage for starters who qualify: 1. J.A. Happ - 32.4 percent, 2. Jeremy Hellickson - 32. 6 percent, 3. Ted Lilly - 32.8 percent.

Highest ground ball percentage for starters who qualify: 1. Jake Westbrook - 61.3 percent, 2. Charlie Morton - 59.6 percent, 3. Derek Lowe - 59 percent.

Lowest FIP for starters that qualify: 1. Roy Halladay - 2.20, 2. Madison Bumgarner - 2.49, 3. Clayton Kershaw - 2.51.

Lowest left on base percentage for starters that qualify (with ERAs to prove it): 1. J.A. Happ - 62.6 percent, 2. Fausto Carmona - 63.5 percent, 3. Carl Pavano - 63.8 percent.

Highest left on base percentage for starters that qualify: 1. Ryan Vogelson - 84.7 percent, 2. Jeff Karstens - 84.5 percent, 3. Josh Beckett - 83.6 percent.

Offense is Back in 2011

We heard a lot about last year being the "Year of the Pitcher" in Major League Baseball. The numbers bear out that 2010 was a very good year for pitching. The majors earned run average of 4.04 was the lowest number of earned runs per game since 1992. The home run per nine inning rate was its lowest since 1993. After a hundred and four games are in the books for 2011, several of the key numbers have bounced back to near 2009 levels.

The earned run average in 2011 is back up to 4.23 or more in line with 2009's 4.28. Last year was the first time in the history of the game (why didn't we hear more about this?) that strikeouts per game rose to over seven. Strikeout rates have risen dramatically over the years. In 1988, the strikeout rate was 5.56. It has risen gradually from there to its peak in 2010 at 7.06. That's a 27 percent increase over time. This year, the strikeout rate has shrunk back below seven and sits at 6.96.

As most people know, homer rates have risen dramatically since 1993. The homer rate was never over one per game until 1987 when it peaked at 1.06. The rate shrunk quite a bit in the few years after 1987 and then blew up in 1994. The rate has been over one ever since. That is until 2010 when the rate shrunk under one for the first time since 1993. This year, it's back to 1.14 and if the trend continued, would be the highest since the year 2000.

Surprisingly (or not since it's being stressed so much), the walk rate is down to its lowest level since 2005. And who knows if this is a factor of it being early in the season or what, but the Intentional Walk rate is down to its lowest level since the stat has been counted in 1955 and it's not even close. Most years, the rate sits anywhere from .25 to .29 per nine innings. The current figure is .17.

What might not be helping the pitching is defense. The current error rate in the majors is the highest rate since 1989.

So yes, the numbers did show that pitching had its best showing in 2010 than it has for a very long time. But so far this year, the offense is back in charge and other than walk rates, the batters are back in business in 2011. It's still very early, but that's how the trends look so far.

Playing in the Sandbox

Playing with statistics is a lot like playing in a sandbox. You can do it by yourself and you can make any sort of interesting patterns you want. The biggest difference is that you don't get any actual sand in your underwear. You might get some in your reputation though because for every statement about statistics, someone is going to dispute what you say and a lot of times it's justified. But it's still fun. The Fan's sandbox of choice is www.baseball-reference.com. Let's play.

Everybody today is focuses on On Base Percentage. A big part of OBP is how many walks a batter or a team receives. So it would make sense that preventing walks would go a long way towards pitching effectively and defeating that game plan. The top five pitching staffs in limiting walks before Friday's games:

1. Twins - 202
2. Phillies - 241
3. Rays - 278
4. Cardinals - 280
5. White Sox - 284

Yup, all contenders and it makes sense. The Twins are ridiculous at how good they are at preventing walks. Their 202 is amazing considering the average pitching staff has given up 316 walks. So which pitching staff has given up the most walks? The Giants. Now that is a surprise, but there it is. They've given up 384 free passes. You would expect teams like Cleveland and Milwaukee to be among the leaders and they are at second and third.

Walks are something a pitching staff can definitely do something about and the Twins seem to do it better than anyone else. They were second in the league last year and only gave up 466 walks. The Cardinals did them better though and came in at 460. The league average last year was 554. You have to wonder how the Twins and Cardinals can get these kinds of results and nobody else can. The Cardinals, though, have more talent than the Twins and are in a great three-way race for the MLB ERA race. The Cardinals sit at 3.26, the Padres at 3.33 and the Giants at 3.38. The Giants are the MLB leader in ERA+ though at 127. The Pirates and the Brewers have the worst ERA+ in the majors with 81. Yuckie.

How about defense? That's the other thing teams are stressing these days. The best five teams in defensive efficiency thus far:

1. Rays - .710
2. Padres - .707
3. Rangers - .706
4. Yankees - .705
4. Athletics - .705.

Athletics? Heck, that's what the numbers say. The A's have had a decent season considering their talent level. All the other four teams are among the best teams in the majors and this is just one of the big reasons. The two top teams in fielding percentage are the Twins at .991 (an incredible number) and the Padres at .990. The worst fielding team in the majors is the Astros and it isn't even close. According to the stats, their defense has compiled a -45 runs below replacement level. Astounding. That alone makes Myers and Oswalt look even better than their current counting stats.

The Royals continue to be an impressive offensive team. They still lead the majors in batting average and their batters have the fewest strikeouts in the league. The average major league team strikes out 663 times. The Royals have struck out only 489 times. They are the only team under 500 in that category. That's the good news. The bad news is that only two teams in the majors have walked less than the Royals: Houston and Baltimore.

The Yankees and Red Sox are one and two in OPS+ as a team. The Red Sox have the highest slugging percentage in baseball. The Twins are the only team to have hit into more than 100 double plays (the league average is 74). The Rays are the only team with more than 100 stolen bases. They have stolen 116 bases and have only been thrown out 28 times. That's an 80% success rate. Amazing.

The flip side of the coin is that the Rays have only two teams in baseball that have struck out more times than they have: The Diamondbacks, who will break all kinds of records, and the Marlins. Strikeouts must be a hot weather event.

The Astros have the worst OPS+ in baseball at 74. Oof! So they have the worst offense and the worst defense. That's a potent combination for disaster. The Astros are batting .238 as a team and they are the only team in baseball with a team On Base Percentage under .300 (.296). That's pretty sad stuff right there. Close on their heels is the Seattle Mariners who sport a nifty OPS+ of 77. The Mariners have the worst slugging percentage in baseball.

The slowest teams in baseball are the Blue Jays and the Red Sox. The Blue Jays have stolen 33 bases and the Red Sox, 32. The Red Sox lost Ellsbury which is one reason for that low a number. The White Sox lead the majors in being thrown out trying to steal. They have been thrown out 45 times. Eight teams have less steals than the White Sox have caught stealings. The White Sox have stolen 87 bases or tied for second in the majors, but they are only successful 66% of the time, which is the second worst in baseball. The only team caught stealing at a higher percentage is the Orioles. Figures.

Boston leads the league in doubles (Toronto is second). The Rockies lead the league in triples (by quite a bit too). The Blue Jays lead the league in homers with 144. The Brewers are second with 123.

By playing in this sandbox, it's easy to see the team numbers and see why some teams are so bad and others so good. What's the old saying? "Numbers Don't Lie."