Valdespin and Andrus: Youth is Wasted on the Young

The quote in the heading by George Bernard Shaw could also be modified as, "Talent is Wasted on the Young." Two different stories have caught my attention this spring. Both involve the people behind the baseball players.

The first story  caught my attention early in Spring Training and involved Elvis Andrus being in the best shape of his life (BSOL). And the second story was much more recent concerning Jordany Valdespin and how his mother told him to grow up. Andrus is 26 and Valdespin is 27.

It is easy to forget that baseball players reach their physical peak early in life. We also fail to understand that most males do not reach their maturity peak until much later. I used to tell my son that boys were always three years younger (in maturity) than their actual ages. Sometimes that is optimistic.

And yet for every Mike Trout who bursts onto the scene with nothing but determination and a level head, there are a dozen others that don't figure it out until much later. The result is losing a lot of time and talent and sometimes it is too late.

Let's start with Elvis Andrus as his is perhaps the less harsh story of the two. Andrus has been a millionaire since the age of 23. When he signed a long-term deal with the Rangers that runs unti 2022, his future became secure and he had nothing but years of money heading his way.

Andrus' reaction to that was him coming to Spring Training a year ago really out of shape. I am not being unfair here, he says it himself. As such, he wasn't ready to play and ended up having the worst year of his career when he should have been peaking as a player.

Andrus has been in the spotlight since he arrived in the Majors. The arrival coincided with the Rangers having great teams and making two World Series in a row. Andrus wanted to be talked about in the same breath as Jeter. But it never happened. While he was a much better fielder than Jeter ever was, his offense has been below league average for every season he's been in the Majors.

It appears that last season made the bell go off and he went into the off season with a plan and is having a fabulous spring. This could be the year that he actually becomes the offensive player it was thought he could be.

It's just a shame that it took him so long to figure that out.

Jordany Valdespin has an even harsher story. The Mets were excited about his talent and either thought he would be the team's future second baseman or a weapon as a super-utility type player. The trouble was, the young man was poison to his fellow players.

Valdespin has a track record of immaturity which included altercations with his manager when he didn't play or was sent to the minors. And when he did play, he angered his teammates by showboating. His results definitely show a guy who should not have been showboating.

How bad was the antipathy with his fellow Mets? When he got caught up in the Biogenesis scandal and was suspended for fifty games, his own teammate said the incident, "definitely confirms his stupidity." Ouch.

Valdespin handled the adversity the way most immature young people do. He wanted to quit after the suspension in 2013. He was frustrated. He probably felt that where he landed was everyone else's fault.

That's when his mom stepped in. She did what every decent parent has to do at some point in the life of their child. She told him to grow up. To his credit, he took that advice and accepted it.

The Miami Marlins gave him another chance. And he is having a great spring and will make the decision on whether to keep him in the Big Leagues a tough one for the Marlins. I find myself rooting for him...and for Andrus.

You have to root for someone who finally gets it. Andrus is guaranteed to be a rich man. Jordany Valdespin is fighting for his baseball life. Both have wasted their prime years and a serious chunk of talent by their immaturity.

But that's what makes this game interesting if you care to think about it. We are talking about human beings here. And human beings who try to improve themselves and grow up are human beings to root for and make an interesting story in counterpoint to the cold, harsh reality of statistics and results.

Talent is often wasted on the young. That happens. Some take longer to figure it out. Some never figure it out. Elvis Andrus and Jordany Valdespin have apparently figured it out. I hope they are rewarded with the the physical time they have left in the game. If they never get where they were supposed to become, at least it won't be because they were their own worst enemies.

What now for the Texas Rangers?

No one should speculate on what caused Ron Washington to step down as manager of the Texas Rangers. If his personal difficulties are that problematic, we should pray for him and hope that things work out for he and his family. The bottom line for the Rangers is that Washington probably saved them some trouble. Somebody was going to have to pay for this season.

That somebody is usually the manager. The Rangers, a preseason favorite for some, have a .376 winning record and are actually more than eight games behind the Houston Astros in the AL West standings. That is a steep fall from grace for a team that went to the World Series in 2010 and 2011.

Everyone can point to the injuries and they are myriad. Yu Darvish has been just the latest of the projected starting rotation to go down. A cursory look at the team's forty-man roster shows 60-day DL designations for: Matt Harrison, Martin Perez, Alexi Ogando, Pedro Figueroa, Jurickson Profar, Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland. And Derek Holland just made his first appearance of the season.

So yes, the injuries were debilitating. But can a .376 winning percentage totally be pegged on just that staggering list of injuries? Other teams like the Yankees have had similar injury issues if not to the extent of the Rangers and have at least been decent.

The Rangers' nose-dive has been across the board. The offense ranks 12th in the American League in runs scored. Adrian Beltre, cementing his Hall of Fame case, is having another great season but is the only current Rangers' starter in the lineup with an OPS+ over 100.

And the offense should not have been this bad. Alex Rios has four home runs. Four! After several seasons, it must be now assumed that Elvis Andrus will never be an offensive star at shortstop. Leonys Martin has not lived up to the promise and at Age 26, probably will not. Rougned Odor has shown flashes, but not a sustained season and the catching has been a black hole.

The offense was not as impacted as the pitching so it should have been better. The pitching has been almost historically bad. The Rangers are last in the American League in ERA. They are next to last in hits and homers allowed and next to last in strikeouts. And to top it all off, they are 13th in walks allowed. And Yu Darvish propped up a lot of those numbers!

Every pitcher in the current rotation except Nick Tepesch has an ERA over five. Colby Lewis has the best FIP among the starters (not including Darvish) at 4.33.  They have been blown out thirty times. They only have 25 total saves.

So where do the Rangers go from here? Do they simply hope all their stars return and then return to form in 2015? Things are never that simple. It is difficult for a player to miss significant time and come back at a level maintained before.

The team does not have to worry about what to do with Ron Washington as he solved that for him. The fan base is unhappy and does not totally buy into the injury excuse. And Washington does not seem to be the target of their ire. Jon Daniels gets far more heat. I don't know if that is justified or not. He gets a lot of the blame for forcing Nolan Ryan out and Ryan was (right or wrong) given much of the credit for turning the pitching around.

General Managers rarely get fired and because of the Rangers' past success, Daniels will probably get a pass and a chance to see if the team can bounce back in 2015 with a healthier team.

The fans will be watching. They have already spoken by attending over 200,000 less times to games this season for an average loss per game of over 4,100 seats. A loss of that kind of revenue should give Daniels a shorter leash (if he makes it to 2015).

The team also has to select a manager going forward. Will it be a rebuilding manager or one that takes the talent they have and brings them back to a team to contend. When a team like the Rangers sinks this low this quickly, the most difficult part is to know how much the injuries played in how badly the season went. Those injuries certainly didn't help.

Jon Daniels will have an interesting off season and an unhappy fan base will be watching closely.

So maybe 2013 wasn't a fluke for Choo

When the Texas Rangers signed Shin-Soo Choo to a very nice chunk of change many writers panned the idea a bit and mentioned that 2013 was a bit out of line with the rest of Choo's career and that he was a target for regression. Surprisingly, I was not one of those writers. It has not been noteworthy since the Rangers have struggled out of the gate, but Choo is having an even better year so far in 2014.

So far this season, Choo is second in baseball in on-base percentage. He is third in wOBA and wRC+ and is 20th overall in fWAR. Consider what I consider the best stat thus far: In 30 games, Choo has been on base 62 times!  That includes five HBPs, 34 hits and 23 walks. He is tied for fifth in that category and eighth in runs created. Choo has been sensational.

Here is a ridiculous stat for you: Of all of the pitches Choo has seen out of the strike zone, he has only swung at 14.8% of them. That puts him second in baseball behind Joyce of the Rays (really!? who knew?).

The .343 batting average is going to come down. After all, his BABIP is .419 and you should not be able to sustain that kind of average on balls in play. Plus, his number of infield hits is by far the highest of his career. On the other hand, he currently is sporting his highest line drive percentage of his career (full time years) and that helps.

A couple of other numbers you should know. First, his swinging strike percentage is easily the lowest of his career. Between his 17.8% walk rate, his low swinging at strikes out of the strike zone and his low swinging strike percentage, it is obvious that Choo is very locked in at the plate and has a definite plan of attack when he gets there.

Choo's current fWAR of 1.3 is ahead of the pace to have him blow past of the 5.2 fWAR he accumulated last season. Playing left field instead of being out of position in center like he was for the Reds helps out too. Choo won't be nearly as hurt by his defensive numbers as last year. On the other hand, his defense is less valued in a corner outfield position than it would be in center field.

Oh, and in case you are saying, "Yeah, yeah, but look where he plays his home games." I might tend to agree with those sentiments if it wasn't for the face that Choo is sporting a 1.410 OPS on the road compared to .723 at home. That is strange, eh? Ah, the wonder of early season short sample sizes.

Small sample size or not, Shin-Soo Choo is having another great season. And the offensive numbers he put up in 2013 are showing more and more to be his norm and not some sort of fluke season.

Projecting the five least valuable players of 2014

Without much else to do in this dead zone waiting to see where the last remaining free agents wind up and Spring Training games, looking at projections is a fun way to pass the time. Whether you do this for fantasy baseball purposes or--if you are like me and do not play fantasy--just for the fun of it, There is a lot of stuff to sort through and ponder. Projection systems are difficult to wrap your head around because some project actual playing time and others assume everyone is going to get 550 plate appearances. The latter, I suppose, is helpful in case a player breaks out in Spring Training and ends up as a starter (which rarely happens). What I thought I would do on this Sunday afternoon was cull through the various projection systems and determine who the five least valuable players would be in 2014.

Such an exercise is harder than you think. First, I have an artificial number of projected plate appearances of 450. I want to consider starters and not part-time players. Secondly, I have to figure out which of these players will actually get the playing time he is projected to obtain. For example, one of the lowest rated was Brett Wallace. But he was just DFA'd by the Astros and doesn't figure to catch on with a full-time gig anywhere else. And lastly, most of the projection systems have to agree on the lack of value a player will have in 2014.

After making my list, a discussion on the merits of each will occur. Think of it as sort of an over/under type discussion. For disclosure sake, I used PECOTA, Steamer, Oliver and Fans projections. I used MLB Depth Charts to confirm possible playing time.

Okay, the list:

1. Garrett Jones - Average Projection of 0.23 WAR
2. Raul Ibanez - Average Projection of 0.3 WAR
3. Mitch Moreland - Average Projection of 0.55 WAR
4. Adeiny Hechavarria - Average Projection of 0.65 WAR
5. Ryan Ludwick - Average Projection of 0.78 WAR

Garrett Jones - Jones holds one of the most extreme L/R splits in the Majors with less than a .600 OPS against left-handed pitching and in the high .878 against right-handed pitchers. He is penciled in as the platoon partner with Jeff Baker at first base. That would be a good thing for Jones as he is capable of hitting more than twenty homers. If he can field first base at near league-average level, he could score 2.0 in WAR. If he plays full time or spends any time in the outfield, all bets are off.

Raul Ibanez - The projections are logical since Ibanez is 41 years old and should never wear a glove. But the Angels only need him as a DH and have plenty of outfielders. So unlike last year in Seattle, Ibanez should only be a DH. That said, will he get 400 plate appearances? He won't if he is platooned (and he should be). Based on offense alone, he could get 1.5 in WAR.

Mitch Moreland - Moreland has no home at first base with the Rangers' addition of Prince Fielder. MLB Depth Charts has him listed as the Rangers' DH. Plus, he has spent plenty of time in the outfield too. Moreland's career doesn't seem to be going anywhere and I think these projections are pretty money.

Adeiny Hechavarria - Not only is his name a bear to spell, but he was awful for the Marlins last season. And still, he is pegged as their starting shortstop again this year. I don't think he will ever hit and a sub-.300 on-base percentage could be his norm. He gets bonus WAR points for his "important position" on the field, but doesn't score all that well as a fielder. If he reaches 1.0 in WAR in 2014, it will be a surprise.

Ryan Ludwick - I kept hearing last year that the Reds will be okay once Ludwick comes back from injury. And it made me scratch my head. Yeah, he had a pretty good 2012, but that is the anomaly for him over the past five seasons. The Reds have him penciled in as the starting left-fielder. I think it is a pie-in-the-sky scenario for them. He is not great in the field, and 2012 aside, his bat has been missing since his days with the Cardinals. I think his projection is fair. His positional ranking hurts him, his fielding hurts him and I don't see him repeating 2012 for offensive production.

There you have it. The projections have spoken. But of course, nobody knows how any player's season will go until he actually plays the games.

So long, Lance Berkman and Michael Young

A couple of Texas institutions during the past fifteen years hung up their spikes this week. Between the two of them, Lance Berkman and Michael Young banged out 3,940 hits while wearing the uniform of teams from Texas. Berkman, of course, was the first round draft pick of the Houston Astros who had quite a career there and Young plied his trade with the Texas Rangers for his long career.

Though they were both drafted in 1997 and both were institutions where they played and banged out consistent .300 batting averages over the years, the similarity between the two players pretty much ends there. If the sun were Cooperstown, Lance Berkman was the Earth and Young, probably Jupiter. I said Pluto last night on Twitter, but that was a bit unkind and in response to another blogger who stated that Young retired on the cusp of Cooperstown. Young was not even close to that kind of player.

But Lance Berkman was. If he could have stayed healthier, he could have really put up the kind of numbers that would get him a plaque. Berkman's injuries led him to have only twelve seasons where he played more than a hundred games. Out of those twelve, he slugged over .500 eleven times and had over a .400 on-base percentage eight times.

Just to give you an idea of how different they were offensively, Lance Berkman had a career wOBA of .400 on the dot. Michael Young had a career wOBA of .342. Lance Berkman's offense was worth 433.6 batting runs during his career. Young's offense was worth 44.2, almost ten percent of Berkman's contribution. Berkman finished with a 144 wRC+ (same as his OPS+) and Young, 104.

Interestingly, they finished within six total bases of each other for their career, but Berkman compiled his in almost 800 fewer plate appearances. Berkman's 1,201 career walks more than doubles Young's career total.

Young was much more durable. In one twelve year stretch, Young played more than 150 games in eleven of those seasons. He also led the league in hits twice and batting average once. He made seven All Star teams and finished in the top ten in MVP voting twice.

Young was more of a cog in a wheel of some very good Rangers teams (and some very bad ones). Berkman was a contemporary with Biggio and Bagwell for years and was just as much as an offensive star as either of them.

Young will always be marked down a bit because he played half of his games in Texas Rangers' home parks, always considered hitters' paradise. Indeed, his home OPS for his career is 108 points higher than his road OPS.

Berkman just flat out hit no matter where he was. For his career, Berkman a .946 OPS guy at home and .940 on the road. His OPS was over .900 for every month of the year--over .950 for three of those months. He had a career .970 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position, a .926 OPS in late and close games and a .956 OPS in tie games.

Young played more valuable positions on the field and his versatility is somewhat what kept him a fixture for so long. That is not to say that he always played them well. Berkman played the bulk of his career as a left-fielder (while Bagwell was at first) and then as a first baseman: two positions that do not rate highly on the positional skill ranking. But he played them reasonably well most of the time.

Young was strictly a right-handed batter who was consistent against pitchers who threw with either arm. Lance Berkman was a switch-hitter who was much, much better batting left-handed.

Both players were considered good clubhouse guys. Berkman was known for his humor and for keeping things loose and teammates laughing. Young was a leader of his clubhouse in Texas for many years.

Both played quite a few post-season games. Berkman over-performed his career numbers there was killer in his two World Series appearances. Young under-performed in his post-season career.

As you have seen, Lance Berkman was twice as valuable a player than Michael Young. But both are gone now and after watching them for all these years, they are going to be missed. Baseball goes on, but every so often, you lose players that have seemed to be with you forever. Michael Young and Lance Berkman were Texas baseball and it won't be the same without them. 

The fine wine of Adrian Beltre

Adrian Beltre has been perhaps the most unappreciated player in baseball over the past four seasons. They have been four seasons in which he has averaged thirty-one homers and a hundred runs batted in and a .385 wOBA. According to the Fangraphs.com leaderboard, Beltre has been the fifth best position player in the Major Leagues during that time. In fact, if Adrian Beltre were to never play another game, he would be the eighth best third baseman of all time. Six of the seven in front of him are in the Hall of Fame. The seventh, Chipper Jones, will be.

Beltre's consistency has been remarkable. You may--if you think of Beltre at all--think that his success over the last three years would be from hitting in Texas half of the time. And yes, Texas is a great place to hit. But Beltre does not have Nelson Cruz-like splits. His wOBA at home last year was .891 and on the road it was .879. In fairness, the splits were a little more dramatic his first two years in Texas and perhaps facing the Astros helped in 2013.

But look at his wOBA over the last four years. They are, in order from his year in Boston to last year: .391, .381, .388, .379. That is a great four-year spread. Beltre's triple slash line over the four years: .314/.358/.545. Nice.

But of course, Beltre is not just a great hitter. There has also been his defense at third. Beltre is currently ninth on Baseball-reference.com's all time total zone runs for third basemen. Perhaps Beltre is slowing down a bit. His numbers on both Fangraphs.com and Baseball-reference.com went into barely negative territory for 2013 for the first time in his career. And this has been part of a slow decline in his fielding numbers over the last four years.

But regression as a player probably shows up more on the field than anywhere else. He is heading into his age 35 season after all. So how much longer will Beltre be a great player? If history tells us anything, perhaps three more seasons.

I studied the WAR graphs of some of the great third basemen over time. I left off Mike Schmidt because he blows away the curve. But when comparing Beltre to Brooks Robinson, George Brett, Chipper Jones, and Ron Santo, only Santo was done by Beltre's age. The others all had three more productive seasons after Beltre's current age and then leveled off.

Take a look at the WAR graphs of some of these greats:


Source: FanGraphs -- Chipper Jones, Adrian Beltre, George Brett

What I find remarkable about this chart is how similar all those careers were. Not only that, how well Beltre stacks up against all those great third basemen. For his age, he is right there with all of them at similar points in their careers. And, again, only Santo was done by age 34. 

Adrian Beltre has been a terrific player over his entire career. He has done it with the bat and with the glove. His statistics with the bat over the last four years show consistency and have been prolific. When you watch Adrian Beltre play a baseball game, don't just think of him currently as one of the better players in the game. Think of him as one of the best third basemen of all time.

Adrain Beltre - a product of his environment

Adrian Beltre will be heading into his Age 34 season with fifteen years already accumulated in his Major League Baseball career. Since his first (partial) season was at age 19, it seems like Beltre has been around forever. And Beltre has a chance to put up the kind of counting stats that will guarantee him a spot in the Hall of Fame, especially when you combine his fielding stats. But if you look at Beltre's career, his numbers have fluctuated greatly from season to season. Mariners fans have to be looking at what Beltre has done over his last three seasons and wonder what the heck happened. And Beltre had that one big year for the Dodgers and several not so big years there. Park effect has really been a factor in Beltre's career.

Where Beltre currently plays his home games is good news for him when it comes to piling on the rest of his counting stats because it is such a good hitters' park. For example, in his two seasons there, Beltre has a triple slash line at Ameriquest Field of .328/.369/.608. Yes, those numbers are pretty. But Beltre spent the bulk of his career playing his home games in Seattle and Los Angeles. Here are his slash lines in those two parks compared to his career line:

• Dodger Stadium: .253/.316/.423
• Safeco Field: .252/304/.411
• Career Stats: .280/.331/.476

It becomes really obvious that all those games in those two ballparks had a severe impact on Beltre's career. Out of curiosity, I wanted to get rid of the stats in all three of his home ballparks to see if that could gives me some insight of what kind of offensive player Beltre really is. I realize that other stats already do this such as wRC+ and OPS+ for example. But I wanted more organic counting stats to see the difference.

So what I did was to take his career stats and subtracted all the stats from Dodger Stadium, Safeco Field and even Ameriquest since that park has inflated his stats a bit the last two seasons. I did not bother with his one season in Boston. So taking out those three parks, the rest of the stats give him a career triple slash line of .292/.340/.496. This, to me, gives a truer picture of the kind of offensive player that Beltre has been. Sure, I know these are sloppy stats because all the rest of his non-home stats have come in all kinds of different parks and conditions and I am no mathematician. But I do believe that this triple slash line gives a better picture.

If you take the triple slash line of his non-home stats and use those numbers for his whole career, Beltre would have 96 more hits than his 2,227. He would have 51 more doubles than his current 463. He would have fifteen more triples than his career 30. Surprisingly, the home run total works out almost the same and his walk and HBP totals go down. Here is a picture of my spreadsheet. Click on it to make it larger.

Now I realize that Beltre's career will be measured without any of this hoopla. And heck, he is already rated according to JAWS as the twelfth best third baseman ever. And that is only going to rise the longer he plays. Beltre seems destined for the Hall of Fame no matter what his numbers were in LA and Seattle. I just feel that those two parks dragged him down to make that HOF vote a little less than a slam dunk years from now. The odds are good that he will reach 3,000 hits, 450 homers and 1500 runs batted in if he plays five more seasons. 

In other words, the combination of his offense and defense will give him a ticket. They just might have been a little prettier if he hadn't had all those plate appearances in those two unforgiving offensive ballparks.

Six things you might not know about Lance Berkman

There have been a lot of mixed feelings out in the blogging world on what the Texas Rangers have done by signing Lance Berkman. There is a palpable risk for the Rangers since Berkman only played 32 games in 2012 due to continued problems with his knees. But what if Berkman could play a hundred games in 2013? If that could happen or more, then Lance Berkman will be worth every penny of that $10 million the Rangers will be paying him. At times quietly (most of his seasons in Houston) and at other times noisily (Cardinals in 2011), Lance Berkman has been one of the best offensive players of his generation. Don't think so? Check out these six things you may not know about him.

1. Lance Berkman has a career on-base average over .400 (.409). That is 38th all time. He has walked more than 90 times in a season in ten of his fourteen seasons and three of those were over a hundred times. Only ten players in history have walked more than 90 times in a season in more seasons than Berkman. And they list like the Who's Who of baseball history. Since 2009, which includes some injury-riddled seasons, he is tied with Jose Bautista for the highest walk percentage at 16.2%. If you go back as far as 2004, Lance Berkman is fourth in the majors in walk percentage (min 3,000 plate appearances) behind only Thome, Dunn and Giambi. And this is despite not being in the top 30 in plate discipline as far as swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. Berkman has been an on-base machine.

2. Since 2004 (the post Bonds era), Lance Berkman has the seventh highest wOBA in baseball among players with more than 3,000 plate appearances. Those ahead of him?  It's a pretty good list: Pujols, Votto, Manny, Miggy, Big Papi and Braun. So getting on base is not his only strength. Berkman also has a career Slugging Percentage of .544 and his rank since 2004 with the same criteria as before is 12th. If you go by OPS+, Berkman is fifth in baseball since 2004 behind only Pujols, Votto, Cabrera and Manny. In other words, one of the best offensive players of his generation.

3. Can we dare say that Lance Berkman is as clutch a player as there has been in baseball? Yeah, people hate that word. But consider these facts. First, since 2004, Berkman is third in all of baseball (position players) in WPA behind only Pujols and Cabrera. For his career, Berkman has an OPS of .984 with two outs and runners in scoring position. In tie games, his OPS is .969. In high leverage situations, his career OPS is .970.  For his career, he has a .954 OPS in the ninth inning. That's a pretty good argument, is it not?

4. Lance Berkman is remarkably consistent. He has a career OPS of .914 or higher in every month of the season. His career OPS at home is .955. On the road it is .950. He's had a .909 OPS at every position he's played except as a pinch hitter. His OPS with no outs in an inning is .978. His OPS with one out is .946. His OPS with two outs is .936.

5. There is one exception to Berkman's consistency. He is no where near as good a hitter when batting from the right side against left-handed pitching as he is from the left side against right-handed pitching. His career OPS on the former is .777. His OPS in the latter situation is 1.007. That is a 230 point difference. It is a little better against left-handed starters where his career OPS is .833. But still, this is a huge difference.

6. If the Rangers are going to the post season, Berkman is a great guy to have along for that ride. Berkman has been as good or better in the post-season as he has been in the regular season. In 233 post season plate appearances, Berkman's triple slash line is: ..317/.417/.532. Yeah, that will do, eh?

Hopefully, the case has been made here of Berkman being among the best offensive players of his generation. Hence the Rangers' risky move here. If Berkman can slot into the DH and get 350 to 400 plate appearances, he should reward the Rangers' risk. And of course, he has always been highly rated for those clubhouse intangibles. But if his wheels are as toasted as they were for the Cardinals last season, then the Rangers' risky move will blow up big time. Health will be the key.

Adrian Beltre is the Rangers' best player

Not only has Adrian Beltre been the best player for the Texas Rangers this season, he is one of the best players in baseball when it has really mattered--the last two months. His defense is always first rate and ranks him at the head of his position class, but Beltre had a 1.006 OPS in August with a .417 wOBA and has topped that this month with a 1.161 OPS and a .470 wOBA. Holy cow! He now leads his team in WAR. Beltre has been sensational.

Let's face it, the Rangers play in a park that aids a strong offensive team. And sure enough, Beltre has a season OPS of .965 at home with a .406 wOBA. But his season on the road is not shabby at all. He has an .861 OPS on the road with a terrific .360 wOBA. He has done it all. He leads the team in go-ahead hits with 23 (Hamilton has 18).

The Rangers signed Beltre before the 2011 season and what a bargain he has turned out to be. In his two years with the team, he has hit 66 homers and has driven in 200 runs. His OPS in his two year run with the team is .904. All the while, he has brought his usual stellar play to the bag at third base. How could the Red Sox not resign this guy after the 2010 season? Crazy.

There is not much more profound things to say about Adrian Beltre. He now has the eleventh highest WAR total ever for a third baseman and should finish around seven or eight by the time he is done. He is only 33 years old. He already has the ninth highest career total zone runs as a third baseman and is closing fast on the number eight guy. At a time when the Rangers were fading a bit and losing some of their big lead in the division, Adrian Beltre has been there to make sure they did not fall too far. His season has been remarkable and its finish, outstanding.

Since there is not more more profound things to say, let's leave you with a brief highlight reel of his memorable fielding plays of 2012.

And that is just a taste of this year.

Michael Young has cratered

Michael Young has long been the poster boy of the analytic crowd when it comes to poking holes in empty superstars. His fielding--or lack thereof--has greatly reduced the value of his offensive benefits over the years to put him on that poster. But all fielding aside, the guy has always been a good offensive player for the Rangers. In his eleven seasons, Baseball-reference.com has him at 35 oWAR (wins above replacement from just an offensive standpoint). His average season equals 199 hits, 90 runs scored and driven in with a .791 OPS. That has to be adjusted for his home ballpark and it still gives him a 104 OPS+ for his career. And he had one of his best seasons offensively a year ago. But this year? Crater city.

Michael Young currently has the tenth lowest wOBA of all qualifying batters in baseball. Add that to the times he plays in the field and you come up with the second LEAST valuable player in Major League Baseball behind only Francoeur of the Royals. And for once, Fangraphs is more kind than B-R. Fangraphs gives Young a -1.5 fWAR whereas B-R gives him a -2.2. Ugh and ouch, that is a lousy season. So what happened?

For one, his power has disappeared. And he has been trending that way for the last couple of years. He hit only eleven homers last season despite the very good offensive season he had. And that came after two 20+ homer seasons the previous two years and an average of 16 dingers a season. This year, Young has hit four homers. Four. But at least Young hit 41 doubles last season and six triples. This season, with a little more than a month to go, he has hit 20 doubles and three triples. His slugging percentage is 124 points below last season and his OPS is down a whopping 200 points. His homer to fly ball rate is the lowest of his career at 3.9 percent.

Perhaps Michael Young just had a bad start and hasn't had a full chance to recover. Nope. His OPS in the first half was .656. His OPS in the second half is .650. His OPS for August is a bit better at .703. He is not taking advantage of his home park like he did in the past. For his career, Young has an .849 OPS at home. That is 114 points higher than his road OPS. But this year, he actually has a higher OPS on the road than at home and neither one of them are any good.

The two biggest things his stats show are first, he is hitting a lot more ground balls. And, secondly, his BABIP is way off on his career mark. The ground balls have to be hurting him. His ground ball percentage for his career is 46.3 percent. This season, that mark is 53.4 percent. His career ground ball to fly ball ratio is 1.57. This season, it is 2.25. He is still hitting line drives at a good clip at 23 percent. But the high ground ball rate and much lower BABIP is killing his production.

Another big thing to notice is that he is struggling against the fastball. Michael Young has always been a good fastball hitter. Just last year, his ability to hit a fastball was worth in the positive at 29.4 and he has been over ten on that pitch for five straight seasons. This year, his score on fastballs is -9.7. He is hitting off-speed stuff at a decent clip, but the fastball? No. 

This leads to the question of whether at the age of 35 if Young's bat has slowed down the point where pitchers can overpower him. The only other possibilities are that his mechanics are off or he is fighting injuries we haven't heard about.

Whatever the case, Michael Young is having a very bad season and has another year left on his contract to the tune of $16 million. That cost is a sunk one for the Rangers this year. As such, what will they do with Young next season? Are his intangibles and leadership worth that kind of money if his days as an offensive producer are over? Those are tough questions the Rangers are going to have to figure out over then next five to six months.

Matt Harrison is vastly underrated

Unlike a former Texas Rangers pitcher who was voted by players to be the most overrated pitcher in baseball, Matt Harrison might be the most underrated. And that includes his own team. Before the season started, he was not even a lock for the rotation after posting a 4.2 fWAR season at 14-9 a season ago. Why doesn't Harrison inspire respect for his pitching? Frankly, it is baffling. No, he does not strike out a gaggle of hitters. He is not going to overpower you. He is just going to get you out and keep his team in the game. He is now tied for the American League lead in wins. Do folks outside of Texas even know that?

Since the beginning of 2011, Matt Harrison has gone 22-12. While we all know that wins is not the strongest of statistics, that is still pretty impressive. And in that time, Fangraphs ranks him tied for the seventeenth best pitcher in the majors. That is more impressive still. Only that overrated guy, the former Rangers' guy, is rated better of all pitchers who have worn the Rangers' uniform. And this is a guy who was not a lock for the rotation at the start of the season? Whuh?

Matt Harrison pitches half of his starts in Texas, where the ball carries like it wears sails. And yet, Harrison has only allowed twenty homers in his last forty-four starts. His home runs per nine innings last year was an impressive 0.63 and this year is at 0.73. Part of the reason is that he is a ground ball pitcher. His ground ball to fly ball ratio is 1.7 and 51 percent of his batted balls are hit on the ground. But that does not tell the entire story either. Of the balls he does allow in the air, only 8.4 percent of them end up as homers. So, despite his home ballpark, he does not wreck his outings with the long ball.

And Harrison's control is getting better too. Last year's walk rate of 2.8 walks per nine was the best of his short career. But this year he is even stingier with a rate of 2.1. This has allowed him to have a higher strikeout to walk ratio even though his strikeouts are down a bit from a year ago.

Most people who think of Matt Harrison think of last year's post season when he went 0-2 and did not pitch well. The suspicion here is that Harrison had just finished throwing the most innings of his career and was gassed by the playoffs. Look for things to be much different this year if the Rangers again make it to the playoffs.

PitchF/X data shows that Harrison is relying more and more each season on the two-seam (or sinking) fastball. His reliance on that pitch have increased every season including this one. His percentage rates of using that pitch have risen from 18.8 percent in 2009 to 33 percent last year. This year, he is using the pitch 41.4 percent of the time. Of all his pitches, his least effective seems to be a cutter that he throws about seven percent of the time. He should probably just ditch that pitch. 

Harrison is not the kind of pitcher who gets batters to chase his pitches. His O-swing rate of 28 percent shows that batters wait for him to throw strikes. That he has lowered his walk rate despite that batter patience is even more impressive. The data shows that his first-pitch strikes have risen dramatically this season from 56 percent last year to 60.1 percent this year. Getting ahead of the batters can only help him in his contests.

Harrison is also getting deeper into games this season. Last year, he averaged 6.17 innings per start. This year, that statistic is over 6.6 innings. 

Harrison is only 26 years old and has a bright future. He will be arbitration eligible next season and should be locked up before that day comes. His team does not believe in him as much as perhaps this writer does. And that's a pity. He is a really good pitcher and the Rangers would be a seriously weaker team without him. Harrison is truly one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball.

Not to take anything away from Josh Hamilton...

Josh Hamilton had a historic night. He not only hit four homers in a game, something that had only happened fifteen other times in baseball history, but he also hit a double which combined to break the all-time American League total bases record for a game. That is very cool. We saw history. You cannot say that every day. And of course, your happiness level for Hamilton depends on how you view him and his story. Some love his overcoming addiction story and others think he's a jerk who has had too many chances. But again, his game was one for the record books. But to take nothing away from Hamilton's game heroics, there is another side of the story: The pitchers who threw the pitches. Frankly, they deserved what they got.

To show that side of the story, here are five pictorial views of what Hamilton hit. Yes, credit the guy with hitting them. He didn't miss these pitches or foul them off. But it's not like they were well thrown. Here they are in sequence:

The first homer off of Jake Arrieta:

Middle of the strike zone where Hamilton could get his arms extended. Meat.

The second homer off of Jake Arrieta:

Better. But still belt high where Hamilton could extend his arms. Hamilton hit it to the opposite field.

The double off of Jake Arrieta:

Again, out where Hamilton could extend his arms. You would think after the first two, Arrieta would have gone somewhere else.

The homer (number 3) off of Zach Phillips:

As the host of Baseball Tonight would say: "You don't want to go...there." Notice the pattern here? Every single hit on the outside part of the plate up where Hamilton can get his arms extended and crush it.

And finally, homer number four against Darren O'Day:

Once again. Stupid pitch. Once again, creamed.

Josh Hamilton's night was historic and you have to give him all the props in the world. He went opposite field once and to straight away center twice. But still, the five at bats showed an inappropriate amount of stupidity on the part of the pitchers involved. Or perhaps for Wieters for the pitches he called. Or perhaps for Buck Showalter to allow his pitchers to pitch to the guy. In any case. It was a serious case of Duh times five.

Kinsler deal a steal for the Rangers

Three baseball fans are sitting in a sports bar talking baseball. One proclaims, "Cano and Pedroia are the two best second basemen in baseball." The second fan lets out a whoop and raises a beverage. The third, who is sitting with head down on folded arms pondering fantasy baseball picks, adds, "and Kinsler." The first two look at the third like seeing an alien. The first raises a bottle and says, "To Cano and Pedroia!" The second clinks bottles with the first and says, "Yeeeah!" The third raises a head and says more firmly, "And Kinsler!"

Ian Kinsler should always be in the same breath as Cano and Pedroia. He simply is not. Despite the Texas Rangers playing in the past two World Series, Kinsler is considered the third or fourth best player on his own team. Cano is considered the best player on his team. And Pedroia is the little engine that could. According to Tim McCarver, Pedroia is the "soul of the Boston Red Sox." But if you look at the Fangraphs.com leaderboard over the last two seasons, Cano has accumulated 12.1 fWAR despite no love for his defense. Pedroia has accumulated 11.5. Ian Kinsler has accumulated 11.4. In other words, Kinsler is right there with those other two.

Of all second basemen since 2010, Ian Kinsler has the second highest walk rate. The only one higher is Ben Zobrist, who is more a right-fielder these days than second baseman. No second baseman has a lower strikeout rate than Ian Kinsler. Kinsler has stolen more bases than any second basemen. His overall base running skills put him above all others at his position. Kinsler has been the fourth best fielding second baseman. He has scored the second most runs and hit the fourth most homers. He has an all-around game that has few weaknesses.

And that is why, five years at $75 million is a steal for the Rangers. Heck, Ian Kinsler's Fangraphs valuation over the past two seasons has been just shy of $50 million. Only injuries and/or a calamitous falloff in skills can ruin this deal. Ian Kinsler is one of the three best second basemen in all of baseball.

Is Michael Young the next Paul Molitor?

Michael Young was a fashionable pinata after the 2010 season. The Texas Rangers had just signed Adrian Beltre to play third and Mike Napoli to split time between catching and first base. Michael Young was going to be the designated hitter. Michael Young was not happy and requested a trade. He was skewered by this space and by others around the Web. After his 2011 season, nobody is laughing now. Sure, Young still makes a lot of money from an ill-advised contract. Sure, you really should not give him a glove. But boy, the guy handled the transition after his initial pout and quietly put up a monster offensive season. It was a season that rivaled the 34 year old season of a Hall of Fame designated hitter, Paul Molitor.

Molitor, like Young, had a difficult season at age 33. But both came back with a vengeance at age 34. Compare the numbers:

• Molitor (1991 - Twins): .325/.399/.489 .888 OPS. 752 plate appearances. 216 hits
• Young (2011 - Rangers): .338/.380/.474  .854 OPS. 689 plate appearances. 213 hits

Pretty similar seasons, eh? Molitor continued on a tear for several more seasons. He played seven more seasons after his age 34 season and collected 1,233 more hits to cement his Hall of Fame ticket. While not predicting Michael Young as an eventual Hall of Fame candidate, the two players were at a similar crossroad before their age 34 season. Molitor was a designated hitter long before Young in his career. But Molitor had never had quite a season like his age 34 season before. He famously shortened his swing and well, he just went crazy. 

Are we seeing a similar life change for Michael Young? It's possible. Young cut his strikeout rate from 16 percent in 2010 to 11.3 percent in 2011. Paul Molitor struck out less than Young and walked more. Molitor had a slightly higher career wOBA and wRC+. And Molitor played in an era that was less of an offensive era. Thus, his OPS+ was higher than Young's. But their age 34 seasons seem otherwise to be so strikingly familiar. And Young is creaming the ball again this spring training. So again, is Michael Young the next Paul Molitor?

One last comparison for you. After Molitor's age 34 season, he had compiled 2,086 hits. Michael Young after his age 34 season now has 2,061 hits. Who is to say that Young can duplicate Molitor's amazing 1,233 hits after his age 34 season. But who is to say he can't? 

Rangers' Infield - Three Beemers and a Dodge

These new Texas Rangers have been an amazing story the past two years. Most baseball fans through the years remember how the Rangers were always a one-dimensional team. They could always pound the ball, but they could never pitch. From 1997 through 2008 (a twelve year stretch), the Rangers gave up an average of 883 runs per game. In seven of those seasons, the pitching staff gave up more runs than the batters plated. Obviously, that's not a winning formula. The last two seasons, the Rangers have allowed only 687 and 677 runs while scoring 787 and 855 runs respectively. That's as good a reason as any for two straight World Series appearances in a row. But as we all should now know, defense plays a key role in preventing runs and few teams do it better than the Rangers. A big part of that defense is the infield, which boasts three Beemers and a Dodge.

Perhaps it is unfair to pick on Dodge. From their television commercials, they are trying hard to change their brand/quality image. The Yugo has all but disappeared, so that analogy is too obscure. But anyway, you get the idea. The Rangers boast three sparkling defenders and then there is first base. Adrian Beltre at third? One of the best ever. Elvis Andrus? The reason Michael Young is a DH. Ian Kinsler? One of the most underrated, all around players in the game. And then there is the first base gaggle of Mitch Moreland, Mike Napoli (when he isn't catching) and Michael Young. The Rangers are one cog away from a beautiful wheel.

Elvis Andrus hasn't developed as expected as a hitter, but his defense more than justifies his existence. It is not mere coincidence that the Rangers started pitching better once he became the shortstop. He was the fifth (or sixth depending on which site you believe) best fielding shortstop in baseball last season. No offense to Michael Young, but once Elvis took over, the difference was night and day.

Ian Kinsler was the third best fielding second baseman in baseball last season. He wasn't rated as highly in 2010, but injuries can explain a lot of that story. But his defense in 2011 was even better than his stellar defensive season of 2009. We can safely state that if Kinsler is healthy, then he's one of the best at his position in baseball.

We all know about Adrian Beltre. The guy is a flat out magician over at third base. Despite ups and downs with his health, Beltre (according to Fangraphs) has been 152.8 runs better than average for his career. If he can continue his pace, he won't catch Brooks Robinson in that category, but he will finish a solid second. He is the best fielding third baseman of his generation.

And then you get to first base. Mitch Moreland got the bulk of the time there. He played first for 99 games and spent another 34 games in right field (due to injuries to Nelson Cruz). Baseball-reference.com gives Moreland a -1 runs lost below average, which isn't terrible. Fangraphs has him at league average for his 99 games at first. Mike Napoli played 35 games at first. B-R has him 2 runs better than average, Fangraphs at -1.5. Michael Young played 36 games at first and B-R gives him -2 runs below average and Fangraphs, -2.1. The obvious statement is that first base fielding at first base does not match the high rent district found elsewhere around the diamond.

Despite endless Google searches, "scoop" data could not be found for an individual seasons like 2011. Tango Tiger and others have done superb studies on such data for a large number of years. Basically, these studies show how many errors are saved by first basemen. But suspicions are at least aroused by the fact that Ian Kinsler made only two throwing errors in all of 2009 and none in 2010 and yet that figure jumped to six in 2011. It's possible that he air-balled all six of those throws and without the data, who knows. But let's call it suspicious.

The bottom line here is that the Rangers are one positional fielder away from having the best infield in baseball. It's a shame that Justin Smoak needed to be traded away to obtain Cliff Lee. Smoak has all the makings of a good fielding first baseman (though his numbers there went south some in 2011). While Prince Fielder may have made the Rangers' line up invincible, he wouldn't have helped in the field. So at least that's a positive. But with Mitch Moreland penciled in as the starting first baseman and Young and Napoli continuing to take their turns over there, the Rangers' infield will continue to contain three Beemers and a Dodge...or a Kia...or..oh you get the idea.

Why is Colby Lewis a Rotation Lock?

Almost forgotten in the "Rangers didn't get Fielder," story line which has eclipsed all other news this week, is that, yes, the Rangers signed Yu Darvish. Without thinking about it deeply, Darvish simply rolls into C.J. Wilson's vacated slot since Wilson signed with the Angels. But it's far more complicated than, "Darvish equals Wilson." The Rangers are also intent on trying Neftali Feliz in the starting rotation which gives the Rangers a bit of a nice problem with too many starting pitchers. That brings us to this post over at ESPN.com's Dallas affiliate which presented a debate by two writers there about what the Rangers should do about it. Their conclusions were a bit astounding.

One of the writers said that Alexi Ogando should go to the bullpen where he was such a force in the playoffs. The other writer posited that Ogando should be given a full chance at starting and Matt Harrison should be traded for needed parts (center field and first base). Both writers based their calls on Darvish followed by Derek Holland, Neftali Feliz (and this is the kicker) and Colby Lewis being a lock for the rotation. The swing spot was either Harrison or Ogando depending on the writer. The big question this Fan has is: Why is Colby Lewis a lock?

According to Fangraphs.com, this was the following fWAR scores by starting pitcher: Wilson (5.9), Harrison (4.2), Holland (3.6), Ogando (3.6) and Lewis (2.3). Aren't you seeing what this Fan is seeing? Baseball-reference.com has them in the same exact order though the numbers differ a little bit. Baseball Prospectus agrees with the same order. Is there any basis to bump Colby Lewis above both Ogando and Harrison?

The answer to that question depends on which statistic you believe to be the fluke number for Colby Lewis. He was wonderful in 2010 after coming back from Japan. He put up a 4.6 fWAR season. His FIP that season at 3.55 was better than his final ERA of 3.72. He struck out a healthy 8.78 batters per nine innings while only walking 2.91. Last year wasn't as good for Lewis. His FIP rose up to 4.54 and his homers per nine really spiked to 1.57 per nine after limiting them to under one in 2010. So was 2010 the fluke or the homers in 2011?

This writer doesn't believe the homers were a fluke. Why? Colby Lewis is a fly ball pitcher. His ground ball to fly ball ratios the past two seasons have been 0.84 and 0.70 respectively. Fly balls fly far in Texas. Matt Harrison, on the other hand, doesn't strike out as many batters as Lewis (6.11 to Lewis' 7.59 in 2011). But Harrison is a ground ball pitcher pitching to the best fielding infield in baseball. Harrison's ground ball to fly ball ratio the past two seasons have been 1.42 and 1.47. Doesn't that work better in Texas with that infield?

Ogando is pretty neutral in the ground ball category. His ground ball to fly ball ratio was 0.91. Everyone falls on Ogando because he collapsed a bit in the second half. But the Rangers stretched him out to 169 innings which was uncharted territory. It's only natural that he might have run out of gas. And Ogando simply has better stuff than either Harrison or Lewis and should be allowed to develop as a starter.

The left-handed angle with Matt Harrison is not a good argument. Unlikely as it seems, Harrison had more trouble with left-handed batters in 2011 than he did with right-handed batters. You would think it would be the other way around. But Lewis is even worse against left-handed batters and such batters had an .829 OPS against Lewis last season. To be fair, Colby Lewis is death to right-handed batters.

This post is no knock on Colby Lewis. The guy has been a terrific story for the Rangers since he got back from Japan. His post-season heroics are noted. And Lewis is a good guy to have around with his Japanese connection as Darvish makes the transition. But in this humble writer's opinion, the Rangers' future revolves around Darvish, Ogando, Harrison and Holland. The Rangers should be building these guys for the long run.

The wild card in all this is Feliz. Can he make the transition? Is he worth the risk? Certainly, Wilson and Ogando have paved the way and make it hard to say that Feliz can't make the transition. You have to think that if any team can pull it off, the team would be the Rangers. It simply grieves the inner geek in this writer to have the experiment happen at the expense of either Harrison or Ogando. When Wilson and Ogando were converted, there were no other options available. There are now.

One of the writers in the article linked above threw off the comment that the Rangers could use Ogando in the bullpen in 2012 and still convert him to a starter in 2013. As soon as that comment was read, the mind immediately raced to Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Oh man, don't go down that road if you can help it.

The Rangers have a nice problem on their hands with too much starting pitching. We will all be interested in how that works itself out. Feliz will get his chance. Colby Lewis is even being talked about as the Opening Day starter. This Fan just can't get away from the feeling that Lewis is the sixth best option of this rotation (giving Feliz the benefit of the doubt). And don't forget, a now healthy Scott Feldman could probably start on most teams. Look at the post season he had. This writer isn't sold on Colby Lewis and the Texas Rangers shouldn't be either. These things have a way of working themselves out so we'll just have to wait and see.

Nathan Signing Comes With Marginal Risk

The Texas Rangers again struck hot in the free agent market by signing Joe Nathan, the former Twins' closer to a two year $14.5 million contract. The move is not about Neftali Feliz's problems closing out Game Six of the World Series. If anything, Joe Nathan's post season record is even spottier than Feliz's. This is not about Feliz not having enough "steel" in big moments as Jon Heyman suggested in a tweet last night. Feliz is hardly the first closer to give up a series-clinching opportunity. Even the great Mariano has done that. This is more a deal about wanting Feliz to start games instead of close them. But the move is not without risk.

There is little risk for adding Joe Nathan as your closer. Last year was his first off of Tommy John surgery and Nathan struggled out of the box. But that is normal in having to build up the trust in his elbow and the strength needed to throw the ball 95 MPH. Nathan showed in the second half of last year that he was all the way back to form. His strikeout to walk ratio in the second half was at 4.40, higher than any of his salad days except for 2006 when he was nearly unhittable. Nathan's second half OPS against was .654. His fastball wasn't quite back to where it was in 2009 in either velocity or movement. But with another winter to build up his strength, he should be back to 2009 levels (although he is 37 years old).

Nathan needs to be nearly as good as he was in 2009 to earn his salary, so that's a pretty minimal risk. The risk is basically replacing C.J. Wilson, a proven commodity with Neftali Feliz, who hasn't started since he was a very young prospect in the Rangers' minor league system. The Rangers have had terrific success converting relievers to starters the last two season. C.J. Wilson made the move two years ago and has gone 31-15 since while compiling 10.5 fWAR. Then in 2011 Alexi Ogando made the switch and compiled 3.6 fWAR covering 29 starts and two relief appearances. Most importantly, Ogando maintained his velocity during the course of the season.

So the Rangers do have a track record of making this happen successfully. If they can hit the jackpot again with Feliz in the rotation in 2012, they basically trade Wilson's $20 million (if his asking price is to believed) salary for about $8 million for both Nathan and Feliz combined. If it all works out perfectly, then the Rangers won't lose too much performance and save themselves $14 million a year. Not a bad thing.

If Feliz can't make the transition successfully, then they might toast one of the best arms in their system. The Rangers sill have Scott Feldman under contract for one more season and Feldman could be more than adequate in the rotation as a Plan B. Feldman mitigates some of the risk and if it doesn't work out for Feliz, too many arms in the bullpen isn't exactly a bad thing. If Feliz can successfully make the switch, Feldman will make nice trade bait for needed pieces.

At least the Rangers are being aggressive and going after what they want. Jon Daniels did a good job of not terribly overpaying Nathan, especially with the market prices we've seen lately. The move allows him to keep from bidding against himself for Wilson's services and cushions the loss if Wilson signs elsewhere. Not a bad day's work for one of the best general managers in the business.