Yankees Look In Mirror At Twins

The Tampa Bay Rays already blew up my playoff bracket before it had much of a start. No longer needing to worry about my picks, I can concentrate on this ALDS between the Yankees and the Twins. With a five-game series, all conventional wisdom is blown away and the outcome is nearly impossible to predict. What can easily be said is that the Yankees and the Twins are so similar in structure that they could be the same image in a mirror.

Both teams have tremendous power as the Twins broke the season home run record this year and the Yankees finished one behind. The loss of the record (which really doesn't matter except for bragging rights) is another example of how the Yankees' last week of the season was atrocious. The Twins, on the other hand, finished super strong and barely ran out of time to catch up to the Yankees' win-loss record.

Both teams have very good managers. All Aaron Boone has done is win a hundred games in both of his seasons. Rocco Baldelli took the Twins to a hundred wins in his first season. One of them, probably Baldelli, will get Manager Of The Year. There is no advantage to be had here. The Yankees had a better record against teams over .500 and won the season series against the Twins and have historically beat the Twins in post season play. But all of those facts are meaningless heading into this series.

The pitching seems about as even as the offense. The Twins have had some bright spots in their rotation but no "stopper." The same can be said for the Yankees unless either James Paxton or Luis Severino are really on their games.

Boone recently announced that the rotation for the Yankees will start with Paxton, then Masahiro Tanaka at home in Game 2, and then Severino in Game 3 in Minneapolis. I am happy with that rotation and also happy (though sad) that CC Sabathia will not make the playoff roster (at least in this round). Tanaka is much better at home and Severino will give the Twins a new wrinkle they haven't seen in their home ballpark. In a short series, will the Yankees want to mess around with an "Opener" or a JA Happ in Game 4? Perhaps there will be enough days off for Paxton to pitch the second time.

One would immediately think that the Yankees have a big edge in the bullpen. I do not see it that way when it comes to the Twins. Their top four guys had great seasons with high strikeout rates and they walk less batters than their Yankee counterparts. For the Yankees to win, they need to win early.

Again, the offenses for both teams are a wash. The Yankees look like they will have the most bashable lineup of the season ready for the Twins with Edwin Encarnacion ready to play. They need him as he can be a game changer. The Twins' only question is whether Max Kepler is healthy and it looks like he will be.

I believe that one edge the Yankees have is defense. The Twins made the second most errors in the American League and all of their infield guys are in negative runs statistics. They lose a lot on defense with Byron Buxton out as it leaves the Twins without a true center fielder. The Twins do not throw out stolen base attempts on par with league average. The Yankees do.

The Twins were a much better team on the road this season than they were at home. That somewhat negates the home field advantage the Yankees hold. So really, there is no clear cut favorite in this series. Both teams are so similar and so close that it will come down to the bounce of the ball and which team makes the best plays and can do the best job pitching in the series.

What would you do with the Yankees' lineup? I have played a few scenarios in my head and like Sanchez as the DH with Romine behind the plate. But Romine would be a weaker play in the lineup.
I guess I would go something like this:

1. D.J. LeMaheau 1B, 
2. Aaron Judge - RF
3. Edwin Encarnacion - DH
4. Gleyber Torres - 2B
5. Giancarlo Stanton - LF
6. Gary Sanchez - C
7. Brett Gardner - CF
8. Gio Urshela - 3B
9. Didi Gregorius - SS

I do think that the Twins were the best possible outcome for a first series match-up for the Yankees. The Astros are going to be tough no matter what. I was really afraid the Yankees facing Oakland and am less so of Tampa Bay. All that said, playing the Twins is no walk in the park. If the Yankees do not pitch well, this series will end up poorly.

The Yankees This Week And Other Thoughts

I wrote somewhat conservatively last week about the West Coast swing the New York Yankees faced despite facing two struggling teams. The week really could not have gone better (other than the Chad Green meltdown that cost the one loss). They went 7-1 for the week and kept pace with the still-winning Bay Rays. The Yankees end their trip with two games against the highly competitive Diamondbacks and then fly home for a weekend set against the Twins. Let's take a look at the week ahead.

Tonight, the Yankees face Zack Greinke and counter with CC Sabathia. The Diamondbacks are 16-13 and battling the Dodgers for the NL West division. And they have a good team, which is surprising considering who departed this season, namely Paul Goldschmidt. To this point, that deal is looking just fine as his replacement at first base, Christian Walker, leads Diamondback position players in WAR and is having a terrific season.

He is not alone. Many of the offensive players on the team are batting well as the team is currently ranked first in slugging percentage in the NL and fifth in OPS. The only batting weaknesses they have are at short, second and behind the plate. Heck, even Zack Greinke has an OPS of 1.731 with two homers.

Greinke is homer-prone, but has won four of his five decisions and has looked particularly good lately. The second starter (tomorrow) is a 30-year-old journeyman getting his first shot in the big leagues: Merrill Kelly. Kelly should be an easier task than Greinke, but the Yankees should be very familiar with Greinke as an organization.

The Diamondbacks' bullpen is deep and talented. After some injury-plagued seasons, Greg Holland is back to being dominant as the closer. Archie Bradley, Yoshihisa Hirano and Andrew Chafin have all been effective. The one caveat with this bullpen is allowing free passes as all of their top relievers are averaging four walks per nine or more. But then again, the same can be said of the Yankees' bullpen.

Neither Gio Urshela nor DJ LeMahieu are in the lineup tonight, which is not good news and are huge losses in this hodgepodge lineup. If the Yankees are to win tonight, Sabathia and the bullpen will need to be sharp and hope the Yankees can scratch out a few runs. At least Sabathia knows what a bat looks like.

Tomorrow, it will be Masahiro Tanaka and the aforementioned Kelly, which seems a wash to me. Tanaka, in my humble opinion, is always a fifty-fifty proposition whenever he takes the mound.

After an off day on Thursday, the Yankees will face the Twins at home. The Twins at Yankee Stadium have always been a welcome sight. But they are a good team this year. They are in first place in the AL Central with a sparkling 17-9 record. Led by new manager, Rocco Baldelli, the Twins are no longer the fusty, old-fashioned team we are used to. Joe Mauer is gone.

The Twins' offense has been effective. Heck, Eddie Rosario has eleven homers already and Byron Buxton has twelve doubles! They are first in the AL in OPS.  The Twins' bullpen might be one of their biggest strengths and they are getting surprisingly good starting pitching considering its rotation makeup.

I am expecting a split in Arizona and a 2-1 edge over the Twins. That Twins series could go the other way, however and in a heartbeat.

With two more injuries, this time to Urshela and LeMahieu, how much more can this Yankee lineup be stretched? Success this week will totally depend on how well they pitch. If they do not pitch well, the week could be a long, long one.

Other Thoughts:

One of the great Yankees sites closed its doors this week as River Avenue Blues called it quits after twelve years. I have been blogging for a long, long, long time and I know how hard it is to keep the drive going. But these guys set the standard for all things Yankees and they were a must read. I remember when working for "It's About The Money Stupid," a favorite saying among the writers when a good idea was written about, only to have it beaten into print by RAB, was, "We've been Axisa-ed again!" Good luck to all their writers and a hearty thank you for their work over the years. One of the best things you could say about them was that they were never jerks or arrogant on Twitter despite being the leaders of the pack. Well done, folks

Chad Green had a terrific first outing for the Triple-A team as he struck out five in two innings without allowing a run. Let's see if he can repeat that a few times because the Yankees really need him.

Swimming against the strikeout tide

Never in the history of Major League Baseball has the strikeout been as prevalent as it is in today's game. The rate has risen every year and 2014 stands to break another record as the average strikeout rate in baseball is 7.73 strikeouts per nine. Even so, there are a few throwbacks to a bygone era whose current strikeout rates would not have been league average unless they pitched way back in 1981.

There are currently six pitchers who have pitched at least 50 innings who have a strikeout per nine rate less than 5.0 per nine. They are: Paul Maholm (3.96), Nick Martinez (4.22), Kevin Correia and Chris Young (4.48), Bronson Arroyo (4.92) and Kyle Gibson (4.93). Two of those pitch for the Twins.

It gets worse for the Twins from there. There are eighteen pitchers who have logged twenty innings or more this season with less than five strikeouts per nine innings and five of them are Twins. And Matt Guerrier would be on the list too if he had two more innings pitched. Throw them strikes, boys, and let them hit the ball!

The K/9 rate might not actually be the best way to look at strikeouts and pitchers. There is also strikeout percentage, which is all about the percentage of strikeouts per plate appearance rather than by inning. It might be a truer picture.

There are 21 pitchers whose strikeout percentage is less than 15% and who have pitched at least 50 innings. There are 55 who have done the trick with 20 innings or more. Just to give you some perspective, 20.3% is the Major League average. So these guys really are swimming against the strikeout tide.

Only one pitcher is averaging less than 10% for a strikeout rate with 50 or more innings and that is/was Paul Maholm. If you go to twenty innings or more, there are four: Mike Pelfrey (8.4% [!]), LaTroy Hawkins--otherwise known as Methuselah--(9.8%), Scott Carroll and Maholm at 9.7%.

For those who are close to Maholm with more than 50 innings, there is Nick Martinez at 10.7% in 59+ innings whose home ballpark is in Texas--not a good combination. Kevin Correia comes in at 11.3% followed by Chris Young at 12.2% and then by Eric Stults at 12.5%. These guys are fighting the tide and only Chris Young is somewhat succeeding with his offerings.

Last year, there were only five qualified starters who finished with less than 15% for a strikeout rate. The bottom two were Jeremy Guthrie and Kevin Correia. So far this year there are twelve. I don't know if that means there are more exceptions to the rule this year than last or that injuries have forced teams to go with more pitchers who do not fit today's pitching mold.

What I do know is that ten years ago (2005) there were 42 qualifying pitchers that finished with a strikeout percentage of less than 15%. While to this point, twelve is more than the two from last year, we can easily see that this is a dying breed.

The tale of two MLB debuts - follow up

I wrote yesterday about two pitchers making their MLB debuts in starts for their respective teams. The topic interested me because I am always rooting for a new guy to make an impression. But the difference between the two situations was so striking as to make it all the more interesting. The two pitchers were a phenom, highly touted prospect and a fighter who rode the buses in the minor leagues for a decade.

So how did they do? Let's start with the career minor-league player. His name is Yohan Pino and he pitched for the Twins. Frankly, he was brilliant. He gave up two runs in seven innings on five hits and one walk. Only one hit was for extra bases--a double. And Pino struck out seven.

When he left, the game was tied, 2-2, and the Twins went on to win the game. He did not get the win, but he allowed his team the time and ability to win it. Nice job!

I was worried that Pino would never get the start as heavy rain delayed the game for quite a long time.

Here is a link to the video of his outing.

The phenom, former Number One pick (9th overall), Andrew Heaney also pitched brilliantly. He faced the Mets, a weak-hitting team in a big home ballpark in Miami, which had to have helped. But even so, he gave up only one run in six innings pitched. He walked one and allowed four hits to go along with four strikeouts.

Unfortunately, one of those four hits was a first-inning homer to David Wright. Also unfortunate is that Zack Wheeler of the Mets had his best Major League outing of his career and blanked the Marlins on three-hits and pitched a shutout. So that one run allowed gave Heaney the loss.

But if Heaney pitches like that, he will win his share of games. Here is video of Heaney's first MLB strikeout.

All in all, it was a very satisfying night of debuts for two pitchers coming to the big leagues from opposite ends of the spectrum. Neither got the win they deserved, but both did themselves proud.

A tale of two MLB debuts - Andrew Heaney and Yohan Pino

Two pitchers will make their first Major League starts tonight--Yohan Pino for the Twins and Andrew Heaney for the Marlins. Their two paths to this point could not have been more different. Heaney was a Number One draft pick, but he's only pitched three seasons in the minors (this year being his third). Yohan Pino is not 23 like Heaney. Pino is 30-years-old and has been beating the bushes in the minors for ten long seasons. Like I said, you could not have had two different paths to this same point on the same day.

Let's start with Andrew Heaney. He was drafted in the 24th round of the 2009 draft by the Tampa Bay Rays right out of high school. But Heaney did not sign and instead went to Oklahoma State University. It turned out to be a good move because after his years in Stillwater, he was drafted in the first round of 2012, the ninth overall selection. The decision to go to college made him a few million dollars in salary.

And he has earned the draft selection. He struggled a little in his rookie league campaign despite great peripherals but the Marlins kept moving him up anyway and starting with the 2013 season, has had nothing but success along the way.

After 38 minor league games, Heaney is 17-7 overall with a 2.31 ERA, a 1.126 WHIP, 9.0 strikeouts per nine and only two walks per nine. He has given up only seven homers and sports a nifty 0.3 homers per nine mark. In other words, he is everything a young phenom should be and worthy of his status as one of the best prospects in baseball.

Heaney made Triple-A look easy to start this season despite being 3.9 years younger than the average age of his peers. His strikeout per walk ratio at New Orleans was an amazing 13.9. It seems natural for a young guy such as Heaney to make this next natural progression for a young team like the Marlins.

Nothing could be further from the truth for Yohan Pino. Pino was a free agent signing of the Twins out of Venezuela way back in 2005. He went 9-2 for the Elizebethton Twins in the Appalachian League in his first season in 2005. Teammates of his that season, Brian Duensing, Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey have made hundreds of Big League appearances. But not Pino.

Pino went 14-2 in the next season for the Single-A Beloit Snappers, again with great peripherals. One of his teammates on that team was an 18-year-old Chris Parmalee. But Pino stalled the following season in Double-A.

Pino pitched for parts of three seasons for the Double-A New Britain Rock Cats. During the 2009 season, Pino started with the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings but he was traded to the Indians' organization and was assigned to Columbus.  After finishing with the Clippers in 2009, he pitched the entire season there in 2010 and his numbers slipped. After a bad start for Columbus in 2011, he was traded to Toronto and really struggled for that organization as he bounced between Las Vegas in the PCL and New Hampshire in the Eastern League through the 2012 season. His career seemed stalled.

Pino, then 29, signed with the Reds' organization and split the 2013 season between that team's Double and Triple-A teams with decent peripherals but mundane win-loss totals.

He re-signed with the Twins, his first organization, to start the 2014 season. Coming full circle to the Rochester Red Wings and now three years older than the average Triple-A opponent, Pino was 9-1 this year for the Red Wings with a 1.92 ERA and a 0.934 WHIP.

But Pino only started seven of his fourteen appearances this year for the Red Wings. The Twins must have liked what they saw enough to give him a shot...finally...in the Big Leagues.

Pino has thrown 1,093.2 innings in the minor leagues. He has a .597 winning percentage, a 1.198 career WHIP to go with a 8.2/2.2 strikeout to walk ratio. His 3.74 career ERA was somewhat inflated by pitching for the Blue Jays' organization. But the guy has certainly been good enough to have gotten a shot somewhere along the line. But he hasn't.

Until now. So, yes, Yohan Pino's debut could not be more different than Andrew Heaney's. The younger pitcher is making the next natural transition. The elder is finally getting a shot after paying long dues and riding way too many buses.

I will be rooting for them both because I am a sucker for both kinds of debuts. But I confess that I will really be pulling for Pino. After all, after all those years, the guy is finally getting a payoff for his efforts.

Not buying the Jason Bartlett chemistry angle

Jason Bartlett's comeback attempt after sitting out 2013 was a curiosity when Spring Training began. And when the NRI invite by the Minnesota Twins turned into a spring without any hits, the thought was the comeback attempt was doomed as much as Abreu's was with the Phillies. But despite a 3 for 36 spring, Bartlett has made the Twins!? This linked article describes the decision as due to Bartlett's flexibility and what he can add to the chemistry of the team. Are you buying that?

I, for one, am not. There are only two possibilities at work here. The first is that the Twins actually believe in this chemistry thing and, as the article linked above states, feel the team needs leadership to move forward or this reeks of a team helping an old friend reach his tenth year of Major League service thereby qualifying for the added retirement benefits such a milestone gives a player.

Let's look at the possibilities one at a time.

Let's say that the team is serious about this chemistry thing. The first thing this says is that the team does not believe in the leadership abilities of Joe Mauer and some of the other veterans. That makes Mauer and others a symptom of a "losing environment." Is that a fair assessment because the team has fallen on hard times? Is that a good message about Mauer and others?

How much stock is put in this "chemistry" or "leadership" thing? Can players who no longer have the ability to perform at a Major League level really respected by their teammates? Let's say you and me are working in a factory on an assembly line or something and one of our co-workers is a veteran of many years but can no longer keep up with the things we do. Do we respect that? Maybe. Maybe not.

Nobody predicts the Twins to make significant gains this season. The team may be a couple of years off from being competitive again. Does a stopgap "chemistry" guy like Bartlett make much difference in what will happen years from now? I cannot buy it or wrap my head around it.

I know from what many former players say that most believe that "good clubhouse guys" are a legitimate concept for players. But does that really mean anything? Kevin Millar was a great clubhouse guy for the Red Sox when he was producing. Did his shtick still mean the same when he was no longer able to produce? I don't think so.

Bartlett says that he learned about clubhouse dynamics from Torii Hunter. Didn't Hunter throw his ex-Twin teammates under the bus when he said they were afraid of the Yankees? I don't know. It seems to me that perhaps there is something to be said for veterans who can "police" a clubhouse. But leadership comes from the managers and coaches, or it should. Is Gardenhire the right guy for this current situation? Does Bartlett really help him if he can no longer contribute as a player?

Bartlett was not in the Majors last year because he career basically sank beneath the waves. After his one very good year in 2009, his career and wRC+ sank like a rock and his defense suffered toward the end too. You could blame his spring to rust after missing a year. But three singles in thirty-six plate appearances is perhaps more rust than can be scraped off.

My feeling is that all this talk is nice, but is a smokescreen for what is really happening here. Bartlett was sitting at home and at some point said to himself, "Hmm, I need another year to guarantee me $100,000 for a pension." He then called some old friends like Terry Ryan and said, "Hey, can I come to Spring Training?"

Ryan, needing all the help he could get took the flier and perhaps was complicit in his old friend's desire for one more year of service. I would not have trouble with any of that if Bartlett could still contribute. But I don't think he can. Perhaps I will be proven wrong and eat my words. If so, great for the Twins and good on Bartlett. But I wouldn't take a bet on it.

The bottom line for me has always been the same. Any team in question has a moral obligation to paying customers to put the best product out the team can. Whatever reason Jason Bartlett is on the team, whether it be as a "chemistry" teacher or as a guy getting a break to get his ten-year plateau in, is not fulfilling that obligation.  That's just my two cents and a cup of coffee.

If Bartlett doesn't last more than a couple of months on the team before being jettisoned, then we will have our answer and it will stink a bit. Because a chemistry teacher needs more time than that if you believe in such things.

If wishes were fishes, Brian Dozier

A happy employee is always a good thing and the employee wanting to continue to stay where he enjoys working is refreshing for a team like the Twins whose teams have not exactly been in the hunt in recent seasons. So it is good that Brian Dozier is happy and having a good time. Yet, despite his exciting and unexpected first full season, there is no incentive for the Twins club to get too far ahead of itself despite Dozier's wish for a extended contract.

Whether you believe Fangraphs.com or Baseball-reference.com's valuation systems--which differ on Dozier's value in 2013 by a win--Dozier did have a very good year. Depending on the site, Dozier was a 2.8 or a 3.8 WAR player worth either $14 or $19 million. Based on a season like that, it might be tempting to think that locking him up long-term would be a good idea.

But we are not talking Trout here. These are the cheap seasons teams count on long before a player becomes even arbitration eligible and the Twins will be just fine in paying $550,000 for that kind of value. And who could blame them? That is the system in place: Maximize value in the controllable years and then try not to overpay when the player gets the leverage.

Besides, no one saw this coming from Brian Dozier. Yeah, he had a .779 career OPS in the minors, so .726 in 2013 should not be that shocking. The average was stunted from his minor league days at .244, but the 18 homers were a big surprise. He was a good, all-around solid player at a skill position. He ran the bases well, fielded surprisingly well for moving from his natural position of shortstop to second base. And he hit for pop. What's not to like?

And as good as it was, his season still feels a bit unlucky. His batting average on balls in play was only .278, far below the league average despite having a decent 20.8% line drive percentage. Dozier's BABIP on line drives was .604, well below the league average of .674. He also pops up to the infield more than you would like to see happen.

If you normalize Dozier's BABIP for 2013, he would have hit .262 instead of .246 and his on-base percentage would be .325 instead of the .312 that it was.

Despite those observations, the projection systems are low on Brian Dozier. Only one predict him to hit above .250. Only one predict an OBP as high as 2013 and only two expect his slugging percentage to stay above .400. I expect Dozier to beat those numbers and to repeat or better his value in 2014.

Part of the reason is that I see the growth in his game. In his 81 games in 2012, Dozier swung at 33% of pitches thrown to him out of the strike zone. That same statistic was 23.1% last season. That is quite an improvement.  And while 10 of his 18 homers were on the road, he still had a slugging percentage over .400 at home, which is pretty impressive for a second baseman considering his home park.

Despite my optimism for Dozier in 2014, I still do not think the Twins have any compelling reason to even talk about an extension at this point. By the time Dozier gets any leverage, he will be pushing 30-years-old and we'll see how he is doing then. The system is set up for the teams to get a great rate on value in a player's controllable years so even if Brian Dozier has enough wishes to fill the sea with fishes, he should continue to build his case for his leverage years.

Ranking Joe Mauer among first basemen

The Twins have seen enough of Joe Mauer getting dinged and dented behind the plate and will make him the team's permanent first baseman. While most will lament that Mauer's extraordinary contract makes sense only if he is an elite catcher, the money is not the point here. It is better for the Twins to get some value for their money with Mauer at first for years than to see him ground into dust within two or three years behind the plate. The question being pondered today is: What kind of value will Mauer bring to first base?

Fortunately, this is possible because over the years, Mauer has put in some time at first and has logged 471+ innings there. While the Twin City's star will lose his positional value as a catcher to one considered of little value at first, the extra playing time should close the gap pretty smartly.

Let's take a look at where he could stand around the Majors for first basemen. The starting point is defense.

One site gives his his time at first a 2.6 runs above average which translates to 8.6 runs over the course of 150 games. Another site puts that number at 3 and 7. Where would that rank among the first basemen of last season? Would you believe that the higher number would have ranked him second and the lower number fourth?

If you add in the positional part of the equation, his overall fielding worth as a first baseman will end up somewhere between the -2.5 to -4.0 range. That sounds awful, but for first basemen, it is very good.

Let's move to base running. The two big sites have a discrepancy of two runs. One says that the last three years have been at -1 while the other says it is a plus one. Average them together and you basically get a league average base runner. Where does that put him among first basemen based on last year?

Would you believe tied for fifth? Mauer has always been a great athlete and not your typical lead-pants catcher. Since first basemen are not known for their speed either, Mauer rates quite favorably.

Now everyone's favorite part--offense. If you throw out Mauer's first cup-of-coffee season and divide his batting runs above average by nine, Mauer has averaged 23.4 runs a season. But since he was mainly a catcher, he has averaged only 127 games a season.

Last season, Mauer compiled 25 runs (or 26 depending on the site) in only 113 games! With perhaps 150 games possible or more playing first base, would not 30 runs be a reasonable expectation? It could go higher. In 2012, Mauer played 147 games and compiled 31 runs. Thirty to thirty-five runs above average seems the sweet spot here.

If we stick with the lower number, that would place Mauer sixth in the Majors among last year's first basemen. Out of thirty teams, that's pretty darned good.

If you average the three skill sets together and do the division, Joe Mauer seems likely to finish as either the fourth or fifth best first basemen in baseball. If he has a really good and healthy season at the plate, he could end up as high as third.

Fourth seems the likely destination. Since two of the three projection systems I looked at for this piece have him at an estimated 5.5 WAR, then fourth seems very logical. And by the way, with the way a win is valued these days, that is a $26 to $28 million player and above his contract value ($23 million) for the season.

Pushing Joe Mauer to first base makes perfect sense for the Twins. He will still be the team's best player and they get to keep him in the lineup more often (barring some fluke injury). And contrary to all the naysayers, if Mauer hits like he always has or even slightly less, he will still earn his contract, first baseman or not.

Twins settle on continuity with Gardenhire

How many teams in Major League Baseball would give a two year extension to a manager whose team has had two identical 66-96 seasons in a row? I cannot think of many. Thus, it was somewhat surprising that the Minnesota Twins gave Ron Gardenhire a two-year extension. After reading the link provided to you here, I can understand some of the thinking behind the Twins' decision. What I am still unsure about is whether or not I buy into the decision.

One of the difficult things about writing a piece like this is not really knowing the situation as a "blogger" versus being a beat writer who knows the organization better. For example, I cannot write with certainty over where the Twins' organizational philosophy of starting pitching comes from. The perception is that it comes from Gardenhire. But is that true? The only nuggets or hints of that being the case are his famous statements back in the day about Francisco Liriano throwing too many strikeouts. But is that a smoking gun?

The facts are that the Twins' pitching staffs have finished dead last in pitching strikeouts in the American League for three straight seasons. And the two previous seasons before that, the Twins finished tenth out of fourteen AL teams. In an era that has seen the strikeout become more prevalent everywhere, the Twins have refused to join the party.

Preventing walks has also been part of that philosophy. And to a degree, they have been successful. Since 2009, they have finished first, first, sixth, sixth and third in the American League in preventing walks.

Whether Gardenhire is behind this organizational philosophy or it can be attributed to someone else, it obviously is not working. Think of the pitchers the team has brought in over the last several seasons. Guys like Carl Pavano, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Correia and others are all of the low strikeout rate ilk.

Then you have pitchers they have developed and brought to the Majors like P.J. Walters, Andrew Albers, Liam Hendriks, Scott Diamond and Anthony Swarzak. There is not a strikeout pitcher among them. And their minor league system continues the same way.

At the Triple-A level, their top seven pitchers in games started feature strikeout rates from 4.3 to 7.9 with five other rates in between. At the Double-A level, Trevor May and Alex Meyer average over nine strikeouts per nine. The rest are in the 3.8 to 7.1 range. At the Advanced A level, their pitchers with the most amount of starts range from 4.4 to 6.5 strikeouts per nine.

So in their top three minor league levels, they have two starting pitchers with a K/9 rate over 7.9. This is a pitch-to-contact-limit-walk philosophy. As the last couple of seasons have shown, this is not the new market inefficiency.

It is clear that the Minnesota Twins need to do something different. Their acquisitions from the outside and their drafting on the inside has to include the possibility that a guy is going to strike people out. Retaining Ron Gardenhire and his entire staff seems to work opposite of fixing what has been an organizational problem.

But perhaps those philosophies are not Gardenhire's fault or that of his staff. Perhaps removing him would not solve the problem. Perhaps the fault lies elsewhere in their organization. I just don't know enough to validly answer. But from the linked piece, Gardenhire's bosses don't see him as the problem and say they need to get him better pitching. And pitching is just one aspect of the organization's failure.

Let's just conclude that Gardenhire would not have survived two such seasons just about anywhere else. Twins fans are restless and did not receive the news very well (for the most part). Time will tell if the Twins made the right call.

Portland Sea Dogs and new friends

This past Friday (July 5), I drove six hours south to Portland, Maine, on what would be the hottest weekend of the summer (to this point). The car air conditioner helped a great deal, but it took me an hour to figure out how to make the hotel's air conditioner work properly. I could hear in the back of my mind a relative saying decades ago, "Now I know he's Italian," when I had difficulty figuring out how to turn a shower on and off. It was the start of a very interesting weekend.

Friday night and Saturday morning were up to my own devises. Friday night, I checked out the pool (indoors regrettably). The usual family with five kids dominated the place including the parents in the hot tub. Does every hotel have a family like that?

I thought I would go to the deep end and be relatively out of the splash zone. But there was this guy there with his trainer. What the heck they were doing at a hotel pool is beyond me. So this trainer's sole function was to bark orders like a drill sergeant while holding a leash attached to the trainee. That's right, a leash. The trainee would try to swim as hard as he could while the trainer held the leash in resistance barking away like some mad dog. Between the splashing and the barking, I soon gave up in disgust.

The hotel had two ice machines. Since the place had three floors, why would it only have two machines? Neither worked the entire time I was there. The hottest weekend of the summer and I had no way of cooling off my Coca-Cola. Der.

Anyway, I chatted on Twitter and followed the ballgames and went to sleep. In the morning, I called down to order breakfast.

"How will you be paying for that, sir?"

"Cash," I answered.

"If you are paying cash, you will have to come down and get it."

"What!?"

"That's the rule."

So I gave her a credit card number, which the gal repeated in full blast to hear over the noise in the background. Forty people could have written down the number.

Things were not going so well to this point. The restaurant's coffee was horrible too.

The plan for the weekend was to meet up with Twitter buds, and fellow bloggers, Dan McCloskey (@_LeftField) and Bryan O'Conner (@replevel) over at Bryan's house for a barbecue and then we would all go to a Portland Sea Dogs' game. The Sea Dogs are the Double-A team for the Boston Red Sox and it is most certainly not funny or weird that they play in Maine. We may not be New Yawk, but we do have a few things.

Things started shaping up when I followed Google's map directions perfectly. That never happens. I can get lost in a mall parking lot. I arrived at Bryan's house around two and before Dan had arrived.

Bryan's family is wonderful. His wife is one of those people who could make anyone feel at home. She calls herself an "overcooker," There certainly was plenty of food! The O'Conners have two small children. Their son is two and a half and already loves baseball and "Big Poppy." I decided to like him anyway. He loved to play catch, but at his young age, could not catch anything. When he invariably missed the catch again, he would throw the glove like it was the glove's fault. Priceless.

Their daughter is four and a half (I think) and she is into Disney princesses. And she liked to hand one of them to you as a token of friendship. Poor Princess Jasmine ended up in my pants pocket and went to the ballgame and back to northern Maine with me. Oops.

Bryan is tall and is very comfortable in his own skin. He is handsome and very down to earth. It is funny how your perception of people can be so wrong. I pictured Bryan as cerebral (he does love his metrics, after all) and Dan as down to earth. They ended up being just the opposite. But I liked them both very much.

Dan arrived with his wife and their young toddler. The two wives met and commiserated, they all talked craft beer and I did not mind feeling like the older uncle who had not been in those circumstances in a long, long time. It turns out that Dan's son liked handing things to you as well and I was collecting quite a collection of toys, left over treats and the like.

Both families are terrific. I liked both wives and their children. I had forgotten how much young children are the center of life when at that age. I cannot imagine having to live like that again. I tried to stay out of the way and made friends with the children as best I could.

Dan looked like he was made for the baseball cap and wears it perfectly.

After a great barbecue, three cars were packed with kids, diaper bags, harnesses, toys and ready to head for the game. Well...mine wasn't. I just had the stowed away Princess Jasmine. Bryan took the lead and led us to the park. Remarkably, we all stayed together and got to the parking lot at the same time. Another miracle.

The Sea Dogs play at Hadlock Park and there is a Green Monster in left, just like at the big boy park. There is also a giant fisherman and a giant L.L. Bean boot on the roof in right field. It is a very attractive place and very fan friendly. Things go on for the kids in between every inning and are sponsored by local businesses. The fans are very enthusiastic and the place was nearly filled. It appears the Sea Dogs have a lot going on that is positive.

We arrived in the bottom of the first, so I gave up my idea of keeping score. And Sea Dogs' shirts were selling from $25 to $40, so I reneged on my promise to bring one home for my wife. Someone in the stands had a fried dough, but I was never able to find out where the vendor was.

I did not get to see Matt Barnes pitch. He faced one batter, who got a hit and later scored and Barnes was pulled right after that. I do not know if he hurt himself. He was followed by Noe Ramirez, who was more like Woe Ramirez and Mike McCarthy followed Woe...uhh...Noe and was even worse. Between the two of them, they gave up two homers and six doubles to the New Britain Rock Cats and it was 9-0 by the fifth inning. Eddie Rosario and Jasmil Pinto both hit a homer and a double in the game.

The Rock Cats' starter, DJ Baxendale was a typical Minnesota Twins pitcher. He pitched five innings and only struck out one batter. But he topped out at 93 on his fastball (stadium gun) and induced a lot of weak pop-ups.

Our gang occupied a large section of a row and we were all spread out. Bryan was the furthest one in and then his children and then his wife. Then Dan's wife, their son and Dan next to me. Later in the game, Bryan came down and the three of us got to talk a little baseball. I was able to talk a little bit to Dan about his times at Joe Brinkman's umpire school and that was fascinating. Bryan is furthest down and Dan closest to you.

Here are some observations about the prospects we were watching:

• Miguel Sano, a top Twins prospect was one of the few Rock Cats without a hit. He did not look that impressive.
• J.C. Linares, a Cuban the Red Sox signed looked old and out of shape. He did get two hits in the game but came in batting .208. He, like all the players, had walk-up music. To me, if you are batting .208, you should not have walk-up music. Bryan, Dan and I decided that a .330 wOBA should be required at least before walk-up music is allowed.
• I was really impressed with the Sea Dogs' last pitcher, Miguel Celestino. He pitched three scoreless innings and hit 97 and 98 with every pitch that was not a breaking ball. His stuff looked electric.
• Garin Cecchini can really, really hit. He had three hits to all fields and just looked like he could do anything he wanted with a bat. He was the DH, so I did not get to see him at third base.

Three bloggers sitting in a row (Dan, Bryan and me):

Dan and family had a rough night the night before with sleep, so they left after the sixth inning. Bryan and his family stayed until after the seventh inning stretch and then they too had to leave. I sat for a while taking it all in and then left myself after the eighth inning. I did not even get lost on the way back to the hotel.

I enjoyed the little adventure and meeting Dan and Bryan was really great. Again, I really liked their families. Perhaps next time, we can take two or three hours and have a beverage and talk baseball. It was great to put people behind a screen name. They are great guys and I would not mind at all getting to see them again.

Separate Mauer from the money

If you do a Google search on baseball's worst contracts and look them over, Joe Mauer's name comes up a lot. Heck, even Head and Shoulders gave up on him. And the famous, "Well played, Mauer," commercial seems far in the past. All of that is because of the contract Mauer signed. And that happens a lot. You heard it when Beltran played for the Mets. You have heard it with Soriano with the Cubs. And yet, I always believe you cannot blame the player for the money he makes. And often times, that money obscures how good a player still is. Joe Mauer is still one of the best catchers in the game. It just does not feel like it because of the money.

Quick, who led the American League in on-base percentage last year? No, it was not Cabrera or Trout. It was Joe Mauer. Mauer also suffers because of the one year when he hit 28 homers (2009). We all know now that was a fluke much like the year Wade Boggs hit that many homers with the Red Sox. But that did not mean that Boggs was a bust after that season, and neither is Joe Mauer.

Would you guess that Joe Mauer currently ranks second among catchers in the majors in fWAR according to Fangraphs.com's leaderboard? Would you guess that he is fourth in the American League in batting and third in on-base percentage? How about that he is sixth in wOBA and wRC+? The guy flat out rakes on a regular basis, but the picture is always clouded by the money.

Joe Mauer is only 30 years old. He has only played ten years. And yet he is already seventeenth among catchers all time in WAR. And he will be rising up that leaderboard quickly. I like to look at baseball-reference.com's way of parsing out a player's stats per 162 games. When they do that with Mauer, he averages 195 hits, 89 walks and 39 doubles.

He has already won three batting titles. He is a catcher. That just does not happen. And check out his lifetime triple slash line compared to this year:

• Lifetime: .323/.405/.469
• 2013: .330/.412/.492

First, you see the consistency. Then, you see that he is over his career numbers in all three. The guy is a stud. And here are two facts about that on-base percentage: First, his last two seasons have been over his career average. And secondly, he has more career walks than strikeouts. How many of today's players can say that?

And then there is the quality of his batted balls. Joe Mauer's line drive percentage this year is 28%! Wow. And that can hardly be called a fluke. Mauer has had a line drive rate over 22% in eight of his ten seasons. His career average is an incredible 23.4%.

I could go on and on. How about that he has thrown out 41% of base steal attempts this season? How about that he only has four passed balls in the last two seasons combined!?

Joe Mauer is judged by the money he makes and that is unfortunate. He will make $23 million a year until like forever. He was only worth $21.5 million last year. His season this year is already worth $15.5 million. The bum. Fault the Twins if you would like to fault anyone about his contract. But separate the player from the money and appreciate that Joe Mauer is one of the best catchers ever and is truly a special player by any of today's standards.

Pedro Florimon - not a star, but an improvement

The Minnesota Twins have admitted the mistakes of the past when it came to their middle infielders. One official is quoted by MLB Reports as admitting the mistake of sending away J.J. Hardy and the fiasco caused by Nishioka and Casilla. Admitting your problems is the first half of the battle, so they say. And it should be noted that the Twins' current options will not hit anywhere near where Hardy can hit. But at least for the time being, they have Pedro Florimon Jr., who can certainly field his position.

There is much to like about Florimon at short. In each of his last two seasons in the minors, he had over 350 assists in less than 125 games. And then last year with the Twins, he had 125 assists in just 42 starts. So he can go get it. In fact, in those 42 starts, he made 29 plays considered out of range.

Florimon has a great first step, lots of speed, good instincts and good strength in his throwing arm. Five of his seven errors were fielding errors and only two were throwing errors, so it's not like he is going to throw the ball all over the place. He is someone who can man the position for the first time since Hardy. His fielding will make people in Minnesota get some of the bad taste out of their mouths from Nishioka, Casilla and even Dozier.

The problem with Florimon is that there isn't much hope for him at the plate. He showed decent patience, swinging at only 44% of the pitches he saw and kept his O-swing below 30%. Those numbers did not translate into many walks. His walk rate was 6.7%. If he can get that up to over 8% like he did in his minor league career, that would be much better.

Florimon's BABIP was well below average at .274 in his 150 plate appearances. And part of that is that he hit grounders at a Jeter-inspiring rate of 2.65 for every fly ball he hit. If he is a slap and dash kind of hitter, he will always be somewhat limited by whatever his BABIP is. He has no appreciable power.

So, no, Pedro Florimon Jr. is not going to hit and be a star with the stick. But if he can field his position like I think he will, Florimon is going to be a huge improvement over the past two futile seasons.

My first ever roto draft and Joe Mauer

Thanks to my colleagues over at MLB Dirt, I participated last night in my first ever mock draft. I had no strategy since I had no clue what I was doing and I never anticipated it would last three hours. But it was fun and it was a good exercise for a baseball writer because it forces you to think about players at different positions and make value judgements as to their relative worth. I picked Verlander first and Sabathia second. That meant that most of the great hitters were unavailable. So I picked the best of what was left in each of the next ten rounds or so. By the end, I was pretty happy with my team. The bonus of the whole thing is that I now have twenty-four stories I can write, one for each of my players. Today's inaugural entry is on Joe Mauer.

I was able to pick Mauer very late in the draft. I think I got him in the sixth round or thereabouts. This just goes to show how far his stock with people has fallen since his MVP season in 2009. It is perhaps also a verdict at how low the Twins have fallen and nobody seems to pay any attention. But after looking at Joe Mauer's 2012 season with fresh eyes, what am I missing?

After all, the triple slash line is pretty darned impressive: .319/.416/.446. That was good for a 141 OPS+ in what has become a pitching era. His on-base percentage led the American League. We are not talking peanuts here.

Another part of the fall in perceptions is that he doesn't just catch anymore. He caught 74 games, DHed 42 games and played first base another 30. And most people think his value lies only because he is a catcher. As if. The guy, no matter where he was playing, got on base 41.6 percent of the time! Baseball-reference.com valued his season at 4.1 rWAR. Fangraphs.com came in higher at 5.0. That is hardly invaluable. Others say his salary, which is huge, is only valid if he is a catcher. Well, maybe. But Fangraphs pegs his value last season at $22.5 million, just a slight hair under his $23 million salary.

I do not have any quibble with that though because of all the value he gave the Twins in those years before he was making big money. I know that's not the way the world works, but the way I think, if a player's overall career value is way above what he has made in his career, he has been worth every penny.

I have already mentioned his triple slash line for his 2012 season. His career line is now: .323/.405/.468. What we see in Joe Mauer is one of the best hitters of his generation. His season in 2009 was obviously an outlier. But it was in the same way that Wade Boggs' was in 1987. Few would not call Wade Boggs a Hall of Fame player. And right now, Mauer's career stats are very similar to Boggs. Oh Boggs will probably have a higher peak and Mauer still has to go through his regression years, but still. Joe Mauer has been fantastic.

Consider a couple of things. In today's strikeout happy baseball, Joe Mauer's career strikeout percentage at 10.4 is lower than his walk percentage of 12.3. And as far as the walk percentage, he is only getting better as his 14% in 2012 was the best of his career. For his career, Mauer has only swung at 20.3 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. For his career, he has swung and missed only 4.1 percent of the time. This is a remarkable hitter.

He is not going to hit 28 homers. So what? Put him on the Yankees and he is sung praises around the world. Put him on the Red Sox and he would be their best player and Nick Carfardo would have a good attitude.

Joe Mauer fell to me in a late round because he is an undervalued player. Because he plays for the Twins and because he doesn't wallop a bunch of homers, he isn't sexy? Because his hair always looks so nice, he has become a joke? Oh please. Just mark him down in 2013 for .320/.400/.450 because you know it is going to happen. He is one of the players of this generation people will talk about for a long time.

Vance Worley a nice move by the Twins

After trading Denard Span to the Nationals earlier in the off season, it seemed rather odd that the Minnesota Twins would also trade his replacement, Ben Revere. However, the Twins improved their present rotation with Vance Worley in the deal and also received a decent prospect in Trevor May. With the myriad of problems the Twins had last season, the pitching was the largest problem and Worley should be a nice improvement.

To be honest, Revere for Worley straight up would have been a good deal for the Twins. To get May in the deal as well is a bonus. You might not agree from casually looking at Worley's statistics for 2012. A 6-9 record with a 4.20 ERA and 1.511 WHIP hardly seems like an improvement for the Twins who gave up more hits as a pitching staff in 2012 than any other American League team. The Twins also finished next to last in runs allowed and homers allowed and were dead last in strikeouts.

But sometimes you have to go deeper than those surface stats to see the bigger picture. The linked article at the top of this post indicated that Worley battled most of the year with a bone chip in his elbow. The chip was removed in a September operation that ended Worley's season. If you look closely at Worley's numbers, you can see the effect of the injury in his pitching.

For example, His velocity was down slightly and his slider went from being a very good pitch for him in 2011 to being terrible in 2012. His fastball also went from 10.2 runs above average in 2011 (7.3 according to PitchF/X) to -0.6 in 2012 (-3.1 for PitchF/X). Clearly, the elbow problem had to figure into some of the loss of effectiveness in those pitches.

The clearest indicator of the problem came with how he fared against left-handed batters. In 2011, he held left-handed batters to a triple slash line of: .201/.271/.299. Those numbers went silly in 2012 and against those same sided batters, his triple slash line was: .312/.386/.462.

One last indicator of how the injury affected his pitching: In 2012, batters across the board had better plate discipline against Worley last season. During his cup of coffee season in 2010 and his larger season of 2011, batters would swing at 28 percent of Worley's pitches out of the strike zone. That number fell off to 26.4 percent in 2012. It seems pretty clear that Worley was not as able to fool batters last year as he did the year before.

Even so, Worley's season was not quite as bad as it looked. His ERA was 4.20 but his FIP was 3.85. His xFIP and SIERA were also lower than his actual ERA. Some luck had to be involved too as his BABIP rose to an extremely high .340 after finishing at .283 the season before. Also consider that in all nine of Worley's losses, the Phillies scored two runs or less.

What should we expect from Vance Worley in 2013? His strikeout rate should remain nearly the same. His 7.2 rate per nine in that category was almost a full strikeout less than his 2011 rate. But that will be offset from not pitching to pitchers every nine at bats. His three-plus walks per nine should improve as the Twins really emphasize that aspect. His OPS against at home last year was a ghastly .861 compared to .739 on the road. With friendlier dimensions at Target Field, those numbers should improve.

The key for the Twins will be how well Worley bounces back after his surgery. If his pitches return to the bite of 2011, then they will have made one heck of a deal. But even if he pitches to his 2012 numbers, which seems hardly likely, he will be better than three of the five rotations spots the Twins were throwing out there last season.

Kyle Gibson tearing up Arizona Fall League

The Minnesota Twins have to be thrilled with what they have seen from top prospect, Kyle Gibson, after his return from Tommy John surgery. After putting up good numbers in the minors in three stops following his rehab, Gibson has pitched three times in the Arizona Fall League and looks tremendous. Obviously, this is all terribly small sample sizes, but still. His success is enough to believe the elbow problem has been successfully corrected and he has a great chance to be the kind of pitcher they hoped he would be when the Twins drafted him with the 22nd overall pick in the 2009 draft.

We are always cautioned when it comes to the AFL. The games are played in the thin, dry air of Arizona and batting numbers are inflated and pitching results have to be taken with a grain of salt. Well, pass the Morton's then because Gibson is killing it.

He has started three games and pitched a total of thirteen innings. Yes, ultra small sample size, granted. But he has only allowed one run on thirteen hits and two walks and has struck out nineteen. Except for the 9.0 hits per nine innings, those are pretty gaudy numbers. And they follow right in line with his 28.1 innings pitched in the minors once he returned from his long rehab.

Gibson pitched at three different levels in the minors this year after getting cleared following his rehabilitation. And granted, he did get cuffed around at the Triple-A level for the six-plus innings he pitched there. But he did strike out ten batters and only walked one in those innings.

And it is those strikeout and walk peripherals that have to get the Twins all excited. After all, the Twins loooove guys who can throw strikes. In his 28.1 innings at all three levels in 2012, he struck out 10.5 batters per nine while only walking 1.9 per nine. Those are nice numbers to dream about, no?

So, if you follow his 19 strikeouts and only two walks in the AFL with what he did in those minor league innings and you see where this piece is going.

Kyle Gibson was one of the Twins' best prospects before he got hurt. And though the team and the organization will have to slowly build up his innings again, they again seem to have themselves a prize.

Joe Mauer - The very good and not so good

The Minnesota Twins had such a bad April that the team has become nearly invisible except for those die-hard fans that love and follow their team. And this invisibility is sort of a shame because they really have not played poorly since the middle of May. Few people would guess, for example, that the Twins played above .500 for the month of June. The lack of attention has also hidden some nice seasons for guys like Scott Diamond, Josh Willingham and Joe Mauer. This post features the latter who has bounced back nicely from pretty much a lost 2011 to again offer the baseball world more than shampoo commercials.

Currently, Jue Mauer is second in the American League in batting with a BA of .332. There is a slight chance that Mauer can claim his fourth batting title. A certain Angels' phenom must cool off a bit for that to happen, but there is plenty of time for Mauer to win another title. Mauer is also first in the American League in on-base percentage of .422. That is an excellent figure and his highest since 2009. There is no way for him to match his slugging of 2009, though, as he has only hit six homers to go with 21 doubles and a triple.

All that said, Mauer has again taken his place among the best hitters in the league. Even so, this observer would dispute some of what Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweeted this afternoon: "...Joe Mauer deserves some MVP votes. He has been superb." Mauer is currently tied for ninth in the American League in fWAR and Fangraphs is much higher (3.4) on him than Baseball-Reference.com which has him at 2.5 rWAR. And he is only eleventh in the league in wOBA. Mauer is back to being an offensive weapon, but MVP votes? No.

Let's start for a moment with his fielding. Mauer is not a full-time catcher anymore. He has caught 49 of the Twins' 99 games. Mauer has DHed (isn't it great how we turned that into a verb?) 25 times and has played first base 19 times. Behind the plate, he has been less than ordinary. Both Fangraphs and B-R have him in negative territory with his fielding. Plus, Mauer has only thrown out a paltry 15% of runners attempting to steal. That is Varitek-like. And while you have to give the pitchers some of the credit for not being able to hold the runners on, you also have to give the Twins' catching some of the responsibility for the Twins being dead last in most pitching categories.

There are also some strange things going on with Mauer's batted balls. His BABIP is a very high .375. That is higher than his .345 career BABIP. But what doesn't make sense is that Mauer is at a higher BABIP while hitting more ground balls than he's ever hit in his career. His current ground ball to fly ball ratio of 2.68 is easily the highest of his career. And yet, he is batting .282 when he hits ground balls. That is high. He doesn't hit many fly balls, but when he does, they are effective. He has a .946 OPS on fly balls which is also kind of unbelievable against the league norm. And his homer to fly ball ratio is pretty good too at just over ten percent.

Mauer is absolutely raking when he hits a line drive. His OPS on line drives is 1.860. Of the 53 line drives he has hit, 45 have found a safe place to land or hit or dent. It should be mentioned that his line drive percentage of 24.9 percent is the highest of his career if he were to maintain it.

So there is some really good stuff here and some not so good stuff. He has only swung and missed 4.2 percent of the time this season. That is astounding. And yet, he leads the league in grounding into double plays with an amazing 19, well on pace to beat his career high of 22.

The great news is that Joe Mauer is back as an offensive player. He is one the best pure hitters of this generation. The not so good news is that not only is he not an every day catcher anymore, he is no longer a very good one when he does.

The good news is that Head and Shoulders doesn't have to be embarrassed about its spokesperson anymore (except at how dumb the commercials are). The bad news is that the Twins are paying him at $23 million a season and he only has an outside shot of reaching that value according to Fangraphs and no shot according to Baseball-reference.com. This writer would still pay to see him hit though.