MLB Game Picks - Thursday: June 11, 2015

I had a much better day yesterday finishing at 9-6 with a correct Pick of the Day. As pretty good as it was, the day would have been far sweeter if the Yankees and Rangers hadn't had bullpen letdowns and blown their games. But that's the way it goes. The Blue Jays kept winning and the Tigers kept losing. What a weird season.

Thursday's picks:

• The Braves over the Padres: The Braves have been surprisingly good and the Padres surprisingly bad. I imagine Bud Black has a pretty warm fanny right now as the Padres went all in with salary this season. Today won't help Black's cause as Julio Teheran is going to be better than Andrew Cashner.
• The Indians over the Mariners: This is set up nicely for an Indians win...one they need pretty badly at this point.  Shaun Marcum isn't great, but he's been pretty good. The Indians are at home and only have to face J.A. Happ.
• The Rangers over the Athletics: This pick was correct for eight innings yesterday (frown). Chi Chi Gonzalez has been spectacular for the Rangers. Scott Kazmir has been up and down.
• The Orioles over the Red Sox: Adam Jones has been a game changer. And his cohorts have turned it on a bit. Chris Tillman has been better as of late. And I think the Orioles will jump on Wade Miley.
• The Rockies over the Marlins: The Marlins are now 8-14 under Dan Jennings as manager. Yeesh. David Phelps has not pitched that great lately and Chris Rusin has been terrific for the Rockies thus far.
• The Angels over the Rays: The one weak spot for the Rays in the last couple of weeks has been when Alex Colome pitches. He just hasn't kept up with his rotation mates. Garrett Richards needs to bounce back from his loss to the Yankees and I think he will.
• The Giants over the Mets: The Mets have gone 8-13 over their last 21 games and are 3-6 in June. They are now only two games above .500 and have seemed to hit a wall. Jon Niese hasn't been up to his standards and Tim Lincecum is quietly having a nice season.
• The Reds over the Cubs: Michael Lorenzen has been great for the Reds (if you overlook his walks) and Tsuyoshi Wada hasn't given anything to the Cubs. In other words, it has been nada from Wada.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Nationals over the Brewers: That comeback win for the Nats made a big difference yesterday. Tanner Roark has gotten his feet firmer planted on the starting end of things and the Nats should hit Matt Garza pretty well. This seems too obvious...uh oh.

Yesterday: 9-6, June: 70-65, Season: 448-418, Picks of the Day: 35-29

MLB Game Picks - Monday: July 1, 2013

Happy Canada Day to my friends north of the border. And Happy Birthday to my first wife, a lovely lady and mother to my children. June went by in a blur. But I guess that is what all older people say.

I am excited about a new month though because May and June were so ordinary and blah when it came to picking games. Both months just scraped by a bit over .500 and the season's tally is still riding a hot April with no help from the last two months. Yesterday ended the month in typical fashion at 8-7. I am so tired of being just barely adequate at picking these things.

So what has the new month to offer? A fresh slate. More of a crystallizing of what teams are good and which are not. The best weather of Northern Maine. And, with any kind of luck, better picking. Let's get it started with Monday, July 1:

• The Blue Jays over the Tigers: R.A. Dickey has pitched three good outings in a row. The Blue Jays are at home and despite a tough series against the Red Sox are playing much better ball. The Tigers go with Jose Alvarez, a fill in starter, which gives the Jays an even better chance at winning.
• The Nationals over the Brewers: The Nationals came out of their hitting slump yesterday and isn't Bryce Harper coming back today? On top of all that, my man, Jordan Zimmermann is pitching. Yovani Gallardo is nothing to sneeze at for the Brewers however.
• The Mets over the Diamondbacks: The Mets seem a lot more versatile without Duda and Davis and are playing a bit more of an exciting game. Not that they are great or anything. Shaun Marcum got his first win and the pick is for him to win again. Wade Miley has not been able to come close to his form of last season.
• The Marlins over the Padres: I just wrote about Jose Fernandez over the weekend, so it would be stupid of me to pick against him. I like him especially at home where he has not lost and has great peripherals. Jason Marquis has been great all year but got whacked last time out.
• The Reds over the Giants: I just noticed that I have not picked an away team yet. That is kind of scary. Bronson Arroyo is no stopper and has to be really on to win. But even if he is not on, the Reds should be able to score a lot off of Mike Kickham, who has not impressed in his short career so far.
• The Yankees over the Twins: I have picked against the Yankees for six straight days and that has worked out nicely, although it makes me sad. But I like Andy Pettitte against the Twins and he has a history of handling Mauer pretty well. Scott Diamond is yet another lefty and the Yankees hate lefties. But Diamond is not a high-quality lefty, so that gives them a chance at least.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Bay Rays over the Astros: I will take Matt Moore at home just about against anyone. Against Houston, yeah. Besides, even without Evan Longoria, I do not think Dallas Keuchel will be much of an obstacle for the Rays.

Yesterday: 8-7

Week: 8-7

June: 211-197

Season: 676-546

Games of the Day: 52-37

MLB Game Picks - Friday: June 14, 2013

The picking day on Thursday finished a game over .500 and it still feels like a major victory. Granted, it was mediocre and barely acceptable, but it was the first day in the black this week. That is a victory. Of course, two games went a combined 32 innings to be wrong. Those extra inning games never help. Ever. And it seems there have been more of them than ever before. As usual, Yu Darvish was very good and could not win. The same was the case for Matt Harvey, but at least I predicted that one.

And here is a little tidbit for you. In one of those extra inning games, Travis Hafner, Kevin Youkilis and Vernon Wells were back to back to back in the lineup. They went zero for 23. That's right. Zero for 23. Just keep running them out there, Girardi. Yup.

Here are Friday's picks:

• The Orioles over the Red Sox: Like I told you yesterday, the Orioles like playing the Red Sox. It is just one of those things. Both teams will be exhausted after their long game yesterday. But the Orioles will hit Ryan Dempster more than the Red Sox will hit Chris Tillman.
• The Pirates over the Dodgers: I keep forgetting that the Pirates are a good team now. For all the years I have been doing this, the Pirates were the easy mark. They still have some problems occasionally on offense, but they are a good team. And Jeff Locke will be Barney Stephen Fife.
• The Indians over the Nationals: The Nats have run out of pitchers named, "Ross." They win with pitchers named, "Ross." They have not won often with pitchers named Gio Gonzalez. Besides, Justin Masterson is the Indians' best pitcher.
• The Mets over the Cubs: The two pitchers in this contest are a combined 2-15. Yes, those are the kinds of messes I have to deal with. I have a new theory about Edwin Jackson. He was born in Germany and in that country, most citizens get five weeks of vacation a year. Jackson takes his during the baseball season. Shaun Marcum is going to get his first win of the season.
• The Reds over the Brewers: Kyle Lohse has always pitched pretty well against the Reds. He has one of his better K/BB splits against the Reds over the years. But the feeling here is that the Brewers will find some way to screw it up and lose. Bronson Arroyo is hit or miss and when he is hit, he is hit.
• The Cardinals over the Marlins: Jake Westbrook has not pitched in a while and it is almost a bad thing he has come off the disabled list because the young pitchers have pitched better than him. And the Cardinals have Stanton back and young, Jose Fernandez, has been pitching well. Despite all that, I am going with the Cardinals.
• The Braves over the Giants: This is a tough, tough game to predict. Kris Medlen has not had a good start to the season but has not given up an earned run over his last two starts and wants to stay out of the bullpen. But the Giants are pitching Madison Bumgarner, which means with the free swingers on the Braves, he could strike out twelve of them.
• The Rangers over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have been on a bit of a roll. The Rangers have been in a funk. Justin Grimm has not been very good lately. Mark Buehrle is a powder-puff guy who keeps teams off balance...most of the time. When he does not, it ain't pretty. The Rangers at home are still tough to deal with.
• The White Sox over the Astros: Chris Sale was supposed to pitch the other night, but the game was rained out. The extra rest should do him good. Erik Bedard could surprise with a good game tonight. But that would indeed be a surprise.
• The Tigers over the Twins: This game is no gimme for the Tigers and the Twins have played them tough. Scott Diamond should not be able to hold Miguel Cabrera and company down. Rick Porcello has been decent for the Tigers.
• The Rockies over the Phillies: The Rockies are losing players to injuries, which is a shame. But I have a feeling they will still rock Kyle Kendrick's world today at home in Coors Field.
• The Angels over the Yankees: The Angels have at least three hitters that can do something. The Yankees cannot say that. And as long as the Yankees play Vernon Wells, I cannot pick them anymore. Despite Andy Pettitte pitching, I am going with C.J. Wilson.
• The Athletics over the Mariners: I cannot see the Mariners' offense doing anything in this game. The A's are a really good team. Tommy Milone over Joe Saunders.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: I can tell I am being set up here. I have picked against the Padres and picked against them and they keep on winning. Today, I think they will win behind Eric Stults. But that is a setup and I recognize it. So I am going to foil it and pick the Diamondbacks and the terrible Trevor Cahill. So there. Nice try. Gosh, I am going insane.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Bay Rays over the Royals: The Rays have been pretty sucky for a couple of weeks now. And the once unhitable Matt Moore has been getting bombed. The thinking here is that Moore rediscovers himself in this game and the struggling Rays' lineup gets a few runs off of Luis Mendoza.

Yesterday: 5-4

Week: 25-39

Month: 83-89

Season: 546-439

Games of the Day: 43-29

Shaun Marcum - Nice Pick Up for Brewers

The Blue Jays traded their opening day starter for a blue chip prospect and the Brewers got the pitching help they desperately needed. While losing Shaun Marcum to the Brewers, the Blue Jays seemed to weaken themselves, but as we shall see, it's not going to be as big a loss for the Blue Jays as it seems. Meanwhile, pitchers going to the National League from the tough American League East seem to thrive. There is nothing but upside for the Brewers.

By all accounts, Marcum had a terrific 2010 season and all his peripherals were great for his comeback season after losing time to Tommy John surgery. All the numbers are terrific starting with his 1.247 WHIP  and 3.84 strikeout to walk ratio. Marcum throws strikes and he will pay occasionally with a somewhat high homer rate. But he's easily better than anything the Brewers had behind Yovanni Gallardo. But why would the Blue Jays give him up?

Essentially, the Blue Jays traded from depth as they have a wealth of good young pitching talent. Plus, Marcum did not help the team in the AL East. Yes, Marcum was 3-0 against the Orioles, but against the Yankees, Red Sox and Bay Rays, he was a combined 1-5. His ERA against Boston was 5.55 with seven homers allowed in five starts. He only started one game against the Yankees but he lost it and had a 7.50 ERA in that game. Against the Bay Rays, he had an ERA of 5.55 in four starts and lost both of his decisions. It's all well and good to have a solid pitcher like Marcum, but you have to be able to beat your division rivals too.

The Brewers have to like that Marcum was 3-0 in four interleague starts. He beat the Padres, the Diamondbacks and the Phillies and had a strong start against the Giants in a no decision. He averaged more than nine strikeouts per nine innings in his outings against NL opponents.

The Blue Jays get a terrific prospect in Brett Lawrie, considered the Brewers second best prospect. Lawrie is only 20 years old and he's a bit without a position. He started as a catcher but has been playing second in the minors. Most project him as a corner outfielder. But the Jays have to love that Lawrie is Canadian and can hit the stuffing out of the ball. He has great doubles and triples power and could develop homer potential as he gets older. He's shown fair patience at the plate but strikes out a bit too much. Lawrie could be a star for the Blue Jays in a year or two and give them a home town favorite. If Aaron Hill doesn't bounce back, he could play second for the Blue Jays.

This is a great deal for the Brewers. Marcum is only 29 and has a brand new elbow that should be able to give them reliable starts from the start of the season on. The Blue Jays give up starting depth they can replace and get a great prospect. There is little downside to find in this deal for either team.

Two Pitchers to Watch for 2010

There are a lot of intriguing stories for 2010. Will Joba or Hughes start? Will Dice-K come back strong? Can Hudson put it together for the Braves? Can Feldman repeat last year's success for the Rangers? Can Carpenter repeat for the Cards and stay healthy? All of these are great stories and don't even include other interesting ones like Halladay for the Phillies, Lackey for the Red Sox, etc. But two stories have piqued the Fan's interest, probably because both started Spring Training games yesterday. The two? Shaun Marcum and Chris Capuano. Both were promising pitchers who missed 2009.

Let's start with Marcum. The Blue Jays' pitcher was a former #3 draft pick who flew unnoticed (except by Toronto fans) for his first three years. In just about every major category, Marcum had improved over those two years and put up decent numbers. He was an up and coming pitcher who showed a lot of promise.

Marcum went 9-7 in 2008 starts after going 12-6 the year before in the same number of starts. The record again shows how little wins and losses indicate the worth of a pitcher. The 25 starts in 2008 were much better than 2007's starts. Here is a comparison:

2007/2008

ERA: 4.13/3.39
WHIP: 1.246/1.163
K/9: 6.9/7.3
H/9: 8.4/7.5

The trouble was that Marcum's elbow started acting up in the middle of the 2008 season (which might account for an increase of walks). He went on the disabled list in June for what was then termed an elbow strain. But the plug was pulled in September and he had surgery on that right elbow and of course missed all of 2009.

Marcum is on the road back and threw two excellent innings for the Blue Jays yesterday against the Yankees. If the Blue Jays can get even a 2008 type year out of Marcum, it will be similar to making a great trade and getting a good new pitcher.

Chris Capuano has been gone even longer than Marcum. The Brewers' pitcher last pitched in September of 2007. That's a long time to be away from the majors. After two Tommy John surgeries, a non-tender, a release (all with the same team), Capuano and the Brewers have some sort of cosmic connection because he keeps trying to come back and the Brewers keep giving him minor league deals to give it a go.

Capuano, who may be one of the smartest players in the game with an economics degree from Duke (after finishing high school as the valedictorian), was very good in 2005 and 2006 and looked like he was going to be a good pitcher for them for a long time. He then started 2007 at 5-0 and everything looked great. He made 22 more appearances in 2007, most of them as a starter. Milwaukee lost each and every one of those games. That seems like it has to be some sort of record.

Capuano hoped to come back in 2008, but had to shut it down. The same thing happened in 2009. But here he is back in 2010 and he made his first Spring Training start yesterday and had two sharp innings.

The Fan has an open heart for the underdog story and both Shaun Marcum and Chris Capuano are underdogs in that they were once promising until significant arm injuries ended their development. Now they are making the long road back to where they once were. The Fan is rooting that they both make it and have great 2010 seasons.