Game Picks - Saturday: July 14, 2012

The way the games started out last night, it appeared the picks were going to be a disaster. After the Blue Jays got beat, 1-0, by Justin Masterson and Alfonso Soriano blew away the Diamondbacks and the Orioles and Cardinals lost, the picks stood at, 1-5. The only correct pick was the Yankees and they had to come from behind to do it. But the night rallied and by the time it was all finished, the picks ended up, 8-7 with the Game of the Day coming up correct too. Phew!

There were a few lessons learned from the evening. One, the Orioles are in free-fall. Two, the Mets are sinking. Three, the Diamondbacks have become dysfunctional. And finally, we found out that the Rays' offense is really that bad. Let's see of Saturday's picks have learned anything:

• The Yankees over the Angels: Let the national announcers go on barking about the Yankees lack of clutch hitting and short porches. They will just keep winning. To do so, Freddy Garcia will have to be at his best and the Yankees will have to get to Jerome Williams.
• The Cubs over the Diamondbacks: Okay, lesson received in this one. The Cubbies are doing well after a horrid start. Ryan Dempster will again audition in front of a dozen scouts. He has been superb at home. Joe Saunders is coming back from the DL to start for the D- backs.
• The Indians over the Blue Jays: Those Blue Jays will continue to outfox this picker. Today, Aaron Laffey goes for that team against a rejuvenated, Ubaldo Jimenez. That should be an easy pick, right? Nothing is ever that easy picking a Blue Jays game.
• The Tigers over the Orioles: Here come the Tigers. Look out world. Max Scherzer has been on a roll and if he and Fister can back up Verlander, the Tigers have something cooking. The Orioles will start Wei-Yin Chen, who has been solid all season.
• The Mets over the Braves: Okay, so this picker hasn't learned enough on this one as he has a soft spot for R.A. Dickey. Tommy Hanson had ten wins one other time at the All Star Break. He finished with eleven. Different year this year? We'll see.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: Since Bill Ivie just became the new president of the BBA, the pick has to be for Kyle Lohse in his honor. Mike Leake has been pretty good despite his record. 
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: Another lesson not learned. But c'mon, David Price has been lights out all season. Clay Buchholz is coming back from the disabled list. That is good news for the Red Sox long term, but who knows what to expect in his first outing back.
• The White Sox over the Royals: There was a great line on Twitter last night. A Royals' supporter said (in paraphrase), "When the Royals drafted Luke Hochevar, he was expected to become the best Royals starter. Unfortunately, that is now true." Classic line. Love Twitter. Jake Peavy with the win.
• The Twins over the Athletics: Still can't believe Liriano struck out all those A's and the Twins still lost. What the hay!? Two young pitchers in this one makes this unpredictable. Cole De Vries matches up with Tommy Milone. Both have looked really good. The Twins should have a better offense, so going that way.
• The Brewers over the Pirates: The Pirates are running into a hot offense for the Brewers. Braun is going nuts. Kevin Correia will not be able to slow them down enough to overcome. Marco Estrada goes for the Brewers and the Pirates typically do not hit him very well.
• The Rockies over the Phillies: The Phillies are just that bad. It is so hard to imagine. They are so bad. Vance Worley is the latest victim and Jeremy Guthrie will make the most of his 75 pitches.
• The Giants over the Astros: This is not a pick for Tim Lincecum as much as it is a pick for the Giants' offense being better than the Astros'. Lucas Harrell will get little support.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: With Kemp and Ethier back, so should the Dodgers be. The Padres can't score and Aaron Harang will keep it that way. Edinson Volquez will keep it close.
• The Rangers over the Mariners: Yu Darvish has an ERA against the Mariners in two starts over eight. Seriously!?  He will improve that today immensely. The question will be if the Rangers can score against Felix Hernandez.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Nationals over the Marlins: The Nats are clearly the better team here. They are also better managed. And, geez, Gio Gonzalez is 12-3! That all adds up to a Nat's pick over Mark Buehrle.

Yesterday: 8-7

Week: 17-15

Month: 73-60

Season: 705-576

Games of the Day: 54-40

Game Picks - Friday: July 13, 2012

Ahh! Meaningful baseball is back. After a couple of evenings of not knowing what to do, Friday evening will again be filled with scores and highlights. Bless you, baseball! There will be recaps to read instead of everyone's first half MVP stories. The division and wild card races will resume. Trade speculation will be rampant. Life will get back to normal. Heck, perhaps even Robinson Cano will get cheered or something.

Friday's picks:

• The Diamondbacks over the Cubs: Baseball resumes with a day game at Wrigley. Perfect. If Paul Maholm is on, he can be very good. Ian Kennedy has been nowhere near as good as he was last season. But the D-backs are still the better team. Perhaps one day they will even play like one.
• The Yankees over the Angels: This is a tough draw for the Yankees to resume their spiritual second half. Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo killed the Yankees in their last meeting. It will all depend on C.J. Wilson and  Hiroki Kuroda. Which one will be sharp? It will be interesting.
• The Orioles over the Tigers: Doug Fister has been sort of a #facepalm this season. Jason Hammel should have been an All Star. Hammel's two-seam fastball will have the Tigers pounding the ball in the dirt. 
• The Blue Jays over the Indians: Edwin Encarnacion has a new contract and will belt at least one long ball. Justin Masterson has not been very consistent. And Ricky Romero is usually solid at his home ballpark.
• The Bay Rays over the Red Sox: Franklin Morales had to be a mirage in his early starts. The Yankees roughed him up a bit. The Rays do not have much of an offense, but if Jeremy Hellickson can hold down the Red Sox, the Rays should win.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: These teams do not like each other. And this game will be a pitcher's duel. Mat Latos has been terrific and Adam Wainwright is rounding back into ace form. Going with the experience of Wainwright in this one.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: Josh Johnson could be spectacular. Jordan Zimmermann will be solid. This could become a bullpen game and if so, the advantage goes to the Nats.
• The Braves over the Mets: Tim Hudson always has a physical problem of some sort. But he is hard to pick against. Chris Young starts in place of the injured Dillon Gee and has been good since coming off the disabled list. This is an important series for both teams.
• The Whtie Sox over the Royals: Jose Quintana has been incredible for the White Sox. You keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. But other than a rough outing against the Yankees, he's been great and has only given up three homers in eight starts. Bruce Chen is always capable of seven innings of bedevilment. But the White Sox are the better pick here.
• The Twins over the Athletics: Will Francisco Liriano finally get traded? Will A.J. Griffin finally get a win to show for his good pitching? The Twins are a better offense, so going with that.
• The Brewers over the Pirates: The picks have been going with James McDonald for game after game this season and it has paid off big time. But Zack Greinke at home is an entirely different story. The latter reality trumps the former.
• The Phillies over the Rockies: Cliff Lee gets on a roll after winning his first game before the break. But he will have to pitch well at Coors Field. Christian Friedrich has been pretty good at times for a rookie on a bad ball club with a bad home situation.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Matt Kemp is back. Everyone hold your breath that he stays this time. Clayton Kershaw should beat Clayton Richard. But that's why they play the game.
• The Rangers over the Mariners: Playing in that big ballpark in Seattle should hold the Rangers' offense down some. But the feeling here is that Derek Holland will enjoy that same reality and completely shut down the Mariners. Of course, that is not very hard to do. Kevin Millwood goes for the M's.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Giants over the Astros: Madison Bumgarner will have to get back to being spectacular after his rough last start before the beak. But that should happen against the Astros and Jordan Lyles will not be able to hold down the Giants.

Week: 9-8

Month: 65-53

Season: 697-569

Games of the Day: 53-40

Ten worst Yankees offensive seasons ever

Over at IIATMS:

http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2012/07/12/the-ten-worst-yankee-offensive-seasons-ever/

Another silly season for Adam Dunn

A year after putting up one of the worst statistical seasons in the history of baseball, Adam Dunn was an All Star in 2012. Of course, Encarnacion of the Blue Jays should have been instead of Dunn, but anyway, Adam Dunn was an All Star. After the season Dunn had in 2011, perhaps no one would have expected such a thing to happen. But that does not mean that Dunn's season is pretty. In fact, his season is downright messy. For people who love looking at statistics, Adam Dunn's silly numbers will provide joy for years to come.

When is the last time an All Star was batting .208? But his 68 walks, 25 homers and 61 runs batted in look a whole lot better if you can close your eyes to the batting average. Dunn's wOBA of .367 is 99 points above where he ended up last season and is right in line with his career norm. His wRC+ of 129 is slightly above his career average and a full 70 points higher than last year.

It is pretty safe to say that Adam Dunn is going to be a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. But again, his numbers are so weird! Dunn has played 84 games and has only 61 hits! 36 of those hits have been for extra bases. Dunn has as many homers at 25 as he has singles (also 25). Here is a good one for you: Of Dunn's 364 plate appearances, he has put the ball in play only 162 times. 202 of the others were either strikeouts or walks.

And the fun goes on an on. Dunn has an amazing line drive percentage of 24.2 percent. That is Votto-like. And yet he only has a BABIP of .265. That is pretty hard to do. Dunn's home run to fly ball rate is an incredible 34.2 percent. One out of every three fly balls he hits goes over the fence. 

And of course, there are the strikeouts. Adam Dunn is on pace to blow the strikeout record away. Few thought that anyone could give the record a serious run, but Dunn is on his way. He has struck out 134 times by the All Star Break. He is projected to strike out 231 times for the season. His strikeout rate is 36.8 percent. So for every 25 times Adam Dunn comes to the plate, he will strike out nine of them.

The question this observer has is why and how anyone would walk Adam Dunn? First of all, at six foot, six inches tall, he has one of the biggest strike zones in baseball. How could you miss it? Second of all, why would you? If you throw strikes to Adam Dunn, you have an eight in ten (or four in five) chance of getting him out. You have a 36.8 percent chance of striking him out. There is only a seven percent chance he will hit your offering for a homer. So why not take your chances?

All of Adam Dunn's value comes from his ability to hit homers and his ability to walk. Why pitchers walk him so much is a mystery. The homers will be hit. But the walks can be prevented. But as long as pitchers continue to walk him, Dunn will continue to defy convention as a guy who cannot seem to hit and yet slugs and on-base percentages you to death. He could hit over forty homers and strike out 240 times and still have an OPS of .850 or higher. 

Adam Dunn is about as unique a baseball player as we have seen in this generation. Of course, he can't field and he can't run. The fun is that in a full 62 percent of his plate appearances, he will either strikeout, walk, or hit a homer. Amazing. 

The Fan's response to the Cano thing

http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2012/07/11/the-cano-all-star-experience/

Game Picks - Wednesday: July 11, 2012

There was every intention to watch the All Star Game. But then Mike called and wanted to play nine holes of twilight golf and it was so nice out that the offer had to be accepted. So, after a quick nine that included four pars, the first inning was missed, and that was just as well because it looked to have been an ugly one. The television was turned on just in time to see Derek Jeter's hit. But then the daughter called. She is visiting her cousins in New Hampshire for a month. She talked an hour and Mike Trout's hit was missed and Chipper Jones'. Apparently Jones and Jeter, the two old men of the game, did not hit the ball very hard for their hits, but hits they were and that was perfect. All in all, it was a showcase for the National League and for the San Francisco Giants as Matt Cain, Buster Posey and Melky Cabrera were right in the thick of things. It was a total zonk for the American League which has now lost three of these things in a row. That does not bode well for the World Series again. And it also meant the sole pick for yesterday was again incorrect. Ah well. That's the way it goes.

There are no picks today, just the results from yesterday. There will be no game picks post tomorrow as there are no games scheduled. So let this old picker take this opportunity to again thank those of you who visit this feature every day. See you again on Friday.

Yesterday; 0-1

Week: 9-8

Month: 65-53

Season: 697-569

Games of the Day: 53-40

Game Picks - Tuesday: July 10, 2012

The early part of the Home Run Derby was sort of fun. The interviews during some of the performances were irritating. Seeing the home run balls splash in the fountain was fun. But the fun quickly wore off and there were some strong opinions of what happened late in the first round. It seems that since this picker has a particular team affiliation, any opinions here about what happened are not allowed. So we will leave it there. Let's just say the program was turned off and a rerun of Antique Roadshow was watched instead.

The odds were long on picking a winner. And those odds certainly worked against the pick. But that is okay. Being wrong was expected. It will count as a loss on the tally and that is fine. Today, the pick is for the winner of the All Star Game. The National League has won two years in a row. But those games began with power arms. This year will be different, hence the pick:

• The American League over the National League: The American League appears to have the stronger lineup. Matt Cain is a great pitcher. But he does not have blow-you-away stuff. Justin Verlander, on the other hand, has that kind of stuff. Here is a guess at how it will  go. The AL will score two or three runs in the first two innings. The NL will score a run or two off of Jered Weaver and Verlander. The AL will score a run against R.A. Dickey. The final score will be something like, 5-2. Enjoy.

Yesterday: 0-1

Week: 9-7

Month: 65-52

Season: 697-568

Games of the Day: 53-40

Oakland Oaks and Joe "Migraine" Magrane

Spending an afternoon watching the MLB Network's MLB Tonight (which just made this sentence an oxymoron) can make a viewer very restless. If Mitch Williams is one of the "analysts," then it is not watchable. Dan Plesac is slightly better. One of the worst but slightly above those two dudes just mentioned, is Joe "Migraine" Magrane, the former pitcher for the Cardinals and others. Magrane comes off as sort of a better-than-you kind of guy. He does have a pretty daughter that can sing though. But anyway, in the course of an hour, Magrane's Sunday performance was cheer-worthy and cringe-worthy all at the same time. And both happened during the same "Look in" during the late innings of a game between the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics.

First the cheer-worthy. The game featured throwback uniforms. And since the Mariners do not have any history to throw back to, they decided on wearing uniforms from notable Pacific Coast League minor league teams. The Oakland A's became the Oakland Oaks and the Mariners became the Washington Raniers. Frankly, throwback uniform days bring no joy from this long-time watcher of games. They often confuse the viewer until you can figure out which team is which and once that is navigated, you then have to figure out which player is which.

Again, this is less of a problem if the team has some actual history to it. And sometimes the ploy can be enjoyable such as seeing the Royals' powder-blue again. But when a team has no history, then the ploy is downright stupid. And this observer's opinion still stands. The entire goal of throwback uniforms is to increase the number of merchandising options there are in the MLB store.

So armed with those feelings in mind, Magrane became a hero of sorts because he called out the practice during the "Look in." He clearly showed his disdain for the practice and then covered himself slightly by saying his opinions were not those of the network he worked for. The moment was cheer-worthy.

But during the same "Look-in," Magrane undid all the positive. The Mariners and Athletics were locked in a 1-1 battle, which is all too typical in their match-ups. The Mariners wasted another great pitching performance from Felix Hernandez and the game went into extra innings. The "Look in" captured the drama of the bottom of the tenth inning.

In that half inning, Cliff Pennington started the inning with a single off of action-figure confab, Brandon League. Charlie Furbush was brought in to face Coco Crisp. Now there is a name- dropper's delight. Anyway, in almost predictable fashion, Crisp was asked to sacrifice the runner to second. MLB Tonight host, Ahmed Fareed, immediately said that he did not like the move. Magrane's rebuke of Fareed was immediate and pointed. He said something like, "You've got to get the runner to second and have two shots at bringing the run home."

This is the perfect opportunity to intimate that the sacrifice bunt is hated in this space. Absolutely hated. And thus articles like this, written by Dave Cameron are heroic in nature. So Fareed is this site's kind of guy. But Magrane used the moment to put on his "I-played-the-game-so-I-am- smarter-than-you" hat and used the occasion to scold Fareed. Boy did Magrane look stupid a moment later.

Crisp did get the bunt down, but it was too much to the pitcher, who threw a perfect strike to second to get the lead runner. Fareed even gloated a little. Magrane gargled something about execution. But anyway, the poor-hitting A's had just traded base runners and gave the Mariners a free out. Crisp complicated the move even further when he was picked off just seconds later.

The sacrifice attempt blunted what could have been a game-ending rally. And sure enough, after the failure of the sacrifice and the pick-off, Furbush walked two batters and threw a wild pitch. But with runners on second and third, the A's only had one out to play with and Jonny Gomes struck out.

The A's did win the game in the thirteenth inning. In that inning, the lead-off batter again singled. But this time,  Josh Reddick wasn't asked to sacrifice and hit a double to win the game.

For Magrane and the A's, the game was the best and worst of the analyst and the team. Magrane--always imperious--used that for good with the uniform comment but abused it with his rebuke and the old saws of baseball strategy. The A's almost worked themselves out of a chance to win but later were allowed to redeem themselves to win the game because the Mariners cannot hit to save themselves.

Game Picks - Monday: July 9, 2012

This game picker is a man obsessed. This Game of the Day feature is starting to become a big issue. To refresh your memory, every game is picked every day. But the pick that seems the most likely to be correct is selected as the Game of the Day. Seven days ago, the record stood at twenty games over .500 at, 53-33. Seven days in a row now, the pick has been wrong. So even though the body of picks have gone 21-10 the last two days, all that matters is that Game of the Day pick. And right now it's going about as well as the Phillies.

Oh, and speaking of the Phillies, they lost again today for their tenth loss in eleven games. The pick bucked the trend and looked for a Phillies victory. Wrong again, big boy. There were other failures. The Nationals' meltdown in the late innings messed up that pick. Oh yes, and Brad Mills. Not the manager. The pitcher. Brad Mills. Yesterday's picks made fun of him starting for the Angels.Who is laughing now? The maddening Athletics and Mariners' series finished on the wrong side despite Felix Hernandez's heroics. Terrible offenses on those teams.

So, you might be asking why there is a Game Picks column today when there are no games. Good question. For one, yesterday's results had to be reported. Secondly, this picker thought it would be fun to pick the winner of the Home Run Derby. Perhaps this is an artificial means of stirring interest in an non-stirring event for this observer. But whatever. And the kicker is, the pick has only a one in eight chance of being correct. Those sure beat the 50/50 odds of a regular game pick.

So the thought process goes like this. First, nobody from the National League is going to win the derby. Most of them are first timers except for Matt Kemp, who really should not be risking his health to participate. So the winner has to be from the American League. Mark Trumbo is a first-timer and though he could hit the moon with his bat, big and young guys like him never do well. Joey Bautista has an excellent shot at it. Prince Fielder is doing this for the fourth time. He has the experience and knows what to expect. And of course, Robinson Cano won it last year. So that is three guys with a real shot at winning.

And the pick goes to: Robinson Cano.

Yesterday: 9-6

Week: 9-6

Month: 65-51

Season: 697-567

Games of the Day: 53-40   grrrr

Game Picks - Sunday: July 8, 2012

Was that fair? Yesterday's post indicated that the Game of the Day feature was on a five day losing streak. So after carefully considering which game was the best lock for being correct, the feature settled on Zack Greinke and the Brewers. You probably heard how that went. Greinke faced two batters, the second of which grounded to first. Greinke raced over and took the throw and thought he beat the runner. But the umpire called the runner safe. Greinke threw the ball down in disgust and was promptly thrown out of the game. Of course, with 27 outs to be recorded by the Brewers' bullpen (not their strong suit), the Brewers lost and now the feature has a six game losing streak. Never mind that the day went 12-4 otherwise. It is that one thing that will stick in the craw all day.

Alas, with the All Star Break, today is the last day of games until Friday. Whatever will this picker do with his time? Not watch the Home Run Derby, that's for sure. With one last gasp before the break, here are today's picks:

• The Tigers over the Royals: Max Scherzer is finally starting to put it together. That is good news for the Tigers. But it is not good news for the Royals and Everett Teaford, who has been respectable for his team as a starter.
• The Bay Rays over the Indians: More of a pick for James Shields than anything else. He is not as good as last year, but good enough to be the Indians. Zach McAllister has been good for the Indians since joining the rotation. The Rays should score three or four off of him though.
• The Mets over the Cubs: Jonathon Niese is a very good pitcher. Ryan Dempster was having a great season until he got hurt. The Cubs still want to trade him and will hope he will resume his great first half. Which pitcher cracks first?
• The Phillies over the Braves: The team from Philadelphia sneaks out a win to end this series. Vance Worley will bounce back from his bad start and Jair Jurrjens' gaudy ERA since returning from the minors cannot be backed up by a good FIP.
• The Nationals over the Rockies: Every day, the Nationals throw a quality pitcher at you. What a great job Rizzo has done with that team. Today it is Jordan Zimmermann's turn. Jeremy Guthrie will probably keep the Rockies in the game.
• The Pirates over the Giants: The first place Pirates. Kinda like the sound of that. A.J. Burnett bounces back from his last start and Tim Lincecum will have that one inning that will keep people scratching their heads.
• The Brewers over the Astros: Oh yeah, this is a fun game to pick. Where the Brewers' starter is supposed to be on the schedule is a big fat, TBO. So who will it be? Will Greinke come back and pitch? Not with the All Star thing coming up. Jordan Lyles goes for the Astros and will lose to somebody.
• The Blue Jays over the White Sox: Dylan Axelrod will pitch in three days rest so Chris Sale can be fresh for the All Star Game. Does anyone else see something wrong with that picture? Excuse this Fan, White Sox brass, but this game counts. Brett Cecil goes for the Blue Jays. Always wanted to write a recap for Cecil if he happened to hit someone with a pitch. Then the headline could be, "Beanie and Cecil."
• The Cardinals over the Marlins: Joe Kelly never gives up more than three runs a start. The Cardinals average scoring four runs a game. That is a pretty good recipe for this pick. Enigma: Anibal Sanchez will go for the Marlins who have lost Giancarlo Stanton.
• The Orioles over the Angels: Wei-Lyn Chen is just a darn good pitcher. And he faces Brad Mills. That's right. That Brad Mills.
• The Reds over the Padres: Johnny Cueto will win his tenth game and thumb his nose at Tony La Russa for not picking him in the All Star Game. Jason Marquis might keep it close.
• The Mariners over the Athletics: Can we put an end to this series already? Sheesh, Felix Hernandez will pitch great. Bartolo Colon will either be great or awful as he knows no middle ground.
• The Rangers over the Twins: Was not a fan of the Rangers signing Roy Oswalt. And his results have borne that out. But the Rangers have still won two of those three starts. And Cole De Vries does not do it for this picker.
• The Yankees over the Red Sox: A lot depends on Jon Lester. Ivan Nova will pitch a good game. If the Yankees can get to Lester early, they will win. If not and Lester gets on a roll, then this pick will look stupid.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Okay. Trevor Bauer is not impressing this picker very much and he can't get along with his catcher. Guess which one will win that battle. That's right. Miguel Montero. Chris Capuano gets the win.

Yesterday: 12-4

Last week: 56-45

Month: 56-45

Season: 688-561

Games of the Day: 53-39

Game Picks - Saturday: July 7, 2012

July is turning into a struggle for your humble game picker. Three straight negative days have now gone by and the Game of the Day feature is on a five game losing streak. Here is an idea. How about shutting Stephen Strasburg down now until the hot season has passed and then use him later in the season when it is cooler outside? Here is another idea for an inner note: Don't pick the Astros! Duh! That was probably the dumbest pick. But there were a lot on the bad side of the register. The Angels did not win. The Cardinals did not win. The Rangers did not win. The Dodgers did not win. Barry Zito won. Geezum Pete!

This picker is up way too early to do this today, but it is a special day. The biggest local golf tournament begins today and let's hope that goes as good as the picks today. And the Fan's mom turns 86 today. She was born in 1926. Imagine all the things she has seen in her lifetime! Happy Birthday, Mom! Wish this picker was there to celebrate with you.

Saturday's picks:

• The Yankees and Red Sox split a double- header: Yeah, this is sorta cheating. The Red Sox are going to light up one of the Yankee pitchers today with Freddy Garcia and Phil Hughes to choose from. The Yankees like lefty pitching and get two of them today with Franklin Morales and Felix Doubront.
• The Nationals over the Rockies: Jeff Francis has been very good for the Rockies and that is a nice story. But Gio Gonzalez has been even better for the Nationals. That is where this pick ends up.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Which of these pitchers will have the better outing, Bruce Chen or Doug Fister? That is tough to call. Fister has a record like his Seattle days and has been getting banged around. Haven't heard a Maddux comparison in a long time with him. Chen's slop has to be pinpoint perfect. It only is about a third of the time.
• The Pirates over the Giants: James McDonald has been this picker's guy all season and he is 8-3. That is a pretty sure bet. Except, he faces Ryan Vogelsong who has been terrific himself. Somebody remind this picker why he tortures himself this way every day...
• The Cubs over the Mets: If Jeff Samardzija can keep throwing split-fingered pitches like he did against the Braves, he is hard to hit. Dillon Gee is not half bad as a starter but his fielders always seem to have a bad game behind him. Going with the Cubbies.
• The Cardinals over the Marlins: Let's try this one again after it did not work out yesterday. Carlos Zambrano just cannot throw enough strikes for some reason. Kyle Lohse is quietly having a very good season. The Cards are due for an offensive explosion.
• The White Sox over the Blue Jays: Ricky Romero may be 8-3, but he has been getting lit up like a fireworks barge on the fourth of July. Gavin Floyd is no gimme pick though. Gracious.
• The Indians over the Bay Rays: Ubaldo Jimenez has seen his velocity increase in his recent outings and he is pitching much better. He still walks too many people. If he is on, he can shut down the weak-hitting Rays. Matt Moore has been underwhelming to this picker. His fastball is straight and looks hittable no matter if it is 95 MPH. Johnny Damon will be saying, "I'll show you Luke Scott."
• The Braves over the Phillies: Tommy Hanson has been homer prone. But he'll keep the Braves in the game long enough for them to square up Joe Blanton. It was fun to see Ryan Howard get two hits in his season debut.
• The Rangers over the Twins: Derek Holland will make his first start off the disabled list. Hope his elbow will be okay. The Twins are starting Samuel Deduno, whose six career relief appearances have totally slipped by this picker's notice. He is making his first MLB start against the Rangers. Not fun for him.
• The Angels over the Orioles: Nice pitching match-up here with Jered Weaver versus Jason Hammel. Weaver is clearly the better pitcher.
• The Reds over the Padres: Homer Bailey was hitting 97 MPH on the radar gun in his last outing. Homer Bailey!? Who knew? Clayton Richard is tough at Petco though as he proved against the Diamondbacks his last start.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Chad Billingsley. Just saying that name makes the skin on this picker's neck crawl. He is impossible to predict. Trevor Cahill hasn't been as good as the D-backs have hoped.
• The Athletics over the Mariners: Hate this series. Gah! Jarrod Parker has been terrific. REALLY terrific. Jason Vargas can be good too. Sounds like a 1-0 game. But which team will get that one run?

And the Game of the Day! (c'mon now!)

• The Brewers over the Astros: Learning from yesterday's stupid mistake. Do NOT pick the Astros. But Wandy Rodriguez is pitching! Argh! Zack Greinke is the pick.

Yesterday: 6-9

Week: 44-41

Month: 44-41

Season: 676-557

Games of the Day: 53-38

Feeling you David Ortiz

David Ortiz feels disrespected. The feeling is understandable. For those of you trying to understand how a guy making $14.58 million a season can feel disrespected, let us put things in real world perspective. Say you are an employee working your tail off every day. Your work has added to your company's bottom line for years. But then your company goes out and hires someone who has not put in the work you have historically, nor, has been that anchor to success like you have and yet, still gets a sweeter deal than you. How would you feel?

How about another example? Say you are a Time Warner Cable customer who has no other competition to go to if you want cable television and high speed Internet access. You have TWC's bundle because you are locked in and you have no other choices. You are paying the outrageous sum of $187 a month because TWC is going to take advantage of your lack of choices and they are heartless SOBs. Then you see offers in their commercials to new customers for drastically less than what you have been paying for years. Sucks, does it not?

David Ortiz has added value to the Red Sox for a number of years. He helped bring a long championship drought to an end, not just once, but twice. His big bat busted up the Yankees on several occasions. He has anchored a cranked up offense for years and helped put fans in the seats at Fenway. Despite his age and a couple of down years, he has roared back to again become one of the top five hitters in baseball the last two season. And yet, the team goes out and signs other players for big money for guaranteed years and all Ortiz can get is one year deals.

His feelings are natural and if we put ourselves in more realistically similar situations and forget the astronomical money involved, we can understand. The problem is that life does not work this way. There is inherent unfairness built into the system. Employees who are not yet with the firm or the baseball team are always more attractive than the workers / players you already employ. The known is always taken for granted. The solid, long-paying customer is always less coveted than new customers. Is it right? No. Is it reality? Yes.

Plus, teams have to stick within valuation guidelines. The Red Sox were one of the first to hire analysts to figure out the cost/reward relationship. They also have to weigh future performance against the past and figure in age and regression models. Baseball players are assets now that have to be assigned a value not just for the current season but in the seasons to come.

It is obvious that in the Red Sox' minds, there is no telling how a 36 year old slugger will fare a year from now. David Ortiz's entire value is based on what he does with the bat. He has no value as a fielder and a negative value as a base runner. The bat is how he makes his money. The bat is how his present and future values are established.

The assumption here is that Ortiz will again be worth about $18.8 million this season, matching last season. Add in the $10.4 million he was worth in 2010 and you have a three year average of $16 million. So the Red Sox are underpaying Ortiz by a million and a half this season. But before the season, his last two seasons of $10.4 million plus $18.8 million add up to $29.2 and when divided by two, comes up with $14.6 million. So the deal the Red Sox gave Ortiz was a square deal based on his last two years.

The human element is that Ortiz is worth something more for the intangible element he has brought to the Red Sox over the years. From that aspect, the way David Ortiz feels is perfectly understandable. But the reality is that the world does not work like that. The world is cold and harsh and bases value on what it can measure. The Red Sox hedged their bet and paid Ortiz exactly his worth in pure baseball performance based on a two year average. You could even say that they took a chance that a 36 year old player would continue to perform at that rate.

You can put David Ortiz down if you want. You can turn it into any kind of "whining" comment that appeals to you. But the truth is that Ortiz is feeling exactly the same way we would feel if we were in his situation. All of us buck the reality of the way the world works. Life is not fair and it never will be. What someone has meant to an organization will always be more important to the giver and not the taker.

Game Picks - Friday: July 6, 2012

Thursday was an exciting and strange day in baseball. Bullpen meltdowns helped picks like the Mets, but hurt picks like the Twins and Scott Diamond (who was great again). All in all, the day ended up just slightly in negative territory, the second straight negative day in a row. To his credit, Jose Quintana out-dueled the great Matt Harrison and that went against the pick.  The Blue Jays continue to fluster any kind of predictions.  And the Padres beating the Reds is just too weird to talk about.

The last two days of the week need to rally to bring the luster back to the week. It all starts with Friday:

• The Braves over the Phillies: For two months people have been looking for the Phillies to get their horses back. Chase Utley came back last week and now Ryan Howard comes back today. But the Phillies problems go way beyond those two hitters in the lineup. The fact is, both are past their prime and while they both might add a win or two to the final total, it is not the answer to all the problems. Tim Hudson over Kyle Kendrick (one of the problems).
• The Tigers over the Royals: This picker can't in any good conscience pick Jonathan Sanchez to win a game. Going with The Emoticon instead, Drew Smyly.
• The Pirates over the Giants: The Giants are a surprisingly good offensive team. But they are starting Barry Zito and it won't be enough. Erik Bedard will hold the runs down below Zito's level.
• The Indians over the Bay Rays: Alex Cobb has been losing quite often and Justin Masterson seems to be peaking into top form. So that is the pick.
• The Mets over the Cubs: Two hot teams and two hot starting pitchers in Travis Wood and Johan Santana. With those two canceling each other out, the home team Mets are the pick.
• The Yankees over the Red Sox: With Josh Beckett going for the Red Sox, this will be a four hour game. Hiroki Kuroda has been terrific. But can he keep it going? The Red Sox will be without Dustin Pedroia, who went on the disabled list.
• The Astros over the Brewers: This is just a hunch that J.A. Happ will be very good at his home park and Yovani Gallardo will struggle on the road.
• The Rangers over the Twins: Francisco Liriano is such a scary guy to pick for or against. You just never know. The Rangers have been in an offensive funk and they should break out of it soon. Martin Perez does not instill a lot of confidence though.
• The White Sox over the Blue Jays: The Red Sox will miss Kevin Youkilis. The White Sox keep getting big hits from him. Jake Peavy should out-pitch Aaron Laffey.
• The Cardinals over the Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton is a big bat that's missing from the Marlins' attack. Jake Westbrook will be solid. Ricky Nolasco is the wild card. He was great his last time out, but you just never know with him.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: The D- backs are in trouble and Josh Collmenter is not going to help. Clayton Kershaw should dominate.
• The Angels over the Orioles: The Angels comeback win last night had to be a gut punch for any hope the Orioles can stay in the AL East rate. And a reality check. C.J. Wilson should be good and Miguel Gonzalez gets his first start for the Orioles. Who?
• The Reds over the Padres: Kip Wells won his last start with seven scoreless innings. Is that not the most improbable statement ever declared in this space? To think it can be repeated just stretches reality. Bronson Arroyo should enjoy Petco.
• The Athletics over the Mariners: These teams have played each other like fifty-five times already, right? Tommy Milone over the "to groin or not to groin" Kevin Millwood.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Nationals over the Rockies: If anyone is left wondering if the National are for real, well, you then are a pessimistic sort aren't you? Stephen Strasburg needs to beat the heat at his home ballpark. If he does, he will easily beat the Rockies. Drew Pomeranz goes for the Rockies.

Yesterday: 6-7

Week: 38-32

Month: 38-32

Season: 670-548

Games of the Day: 53-37

The Summer of Kevin Maas

Written by yours truly for It's About the Money Stupid: http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2012/07/05/the-summer-of-kevin-maas/

Game Picks - Thursday: July 5, 2012

The Independence Day picks did not sour like a rocket into the sky. Rather, they fared about as well as an alien from space did in the movie starring Will Smith. So many things went wrong. The Yankees won a game that David Price started against David Phelps. Not that this picker is complaining about that. But what a shock. The Red Sox were swept by Oakland! Who saw that coming? Cliff Lee finally won a ballgame. Did not predict that. The Blue Jays got great pitching. Did not see that either. And the Angels were mutilated by the Indians putting a huge dent in their new-found status as an elite club. So, yes, the picks on July 4 were the firecracking equivalent of a dud.

Thirteen games are on the schedule today. Four teams have the day off. Three of the games are day games, which is always fun. Thursday's picks:

• The Twins over the Tigers: The picks begin with a real puzzler. Scott Diamond has been very good all season and is 7-3 with an ERA under three. But Rick Porcello has been coming on strong himself these days after a rough start to the season. Overall, the Twins are playing better than the Tigers these days.
• The Brewers over the Marlins: Mike Fiers has been outstanding and with him on the mound, the Brewers have to be given the nod at home. Mark Buehrle will give up two or three runs. The question will be if that is low enough for Fiers.
• The Rangers over the White Sox: The White Sox are hugely susceptible to left-handed pitching and Matt Harrison is one of the best. Jose Quintana continues to win, but his fastball looks straight and he can roll his slider at times. Quintana should neutralize Josh Hamilton, but not the big right-handed bats in the Rangers' lineup.
• The Pirates over the Astros: This picker is beginning to get excited about the Pirates. This is fun! Jeff Karstens surprised in his last outing. Bud Norris seems to be the ace that never becomes the ace. Maybe someday he'll put it together.
• The Nationals over the Giants: The Nats have been impressive in this series as they took care of Bumgarner yesterday. Matt Cain struggled against Cincinnati last time out. Is he tired? Is he okay? Or was it just a BABIP game? Hmm... Ross Detwiler should be good for six innings. Davey better take him out after that.
• The Indians over the Bay Rays: The Rays are coming off a successful series against the Yankees that did not end well. The Indians destroyed the Angels in their series and have Travis Hafner back. Jeremy Hellickson still seems overrated to this picker. Josh Tomlin needs to be fine though.
• The Blue Jays over the Royals: This picker is through trying to figure out Luke Hochevar. He is maddening! Going with Henderson Alvarez and the Blue Jays' bats at home.
• The Cubs over the Braves: The Braves are as maddening as Hochevar. They are supposed to be a good team, right? But the Cubs have looked far better. Matt Garza over Mike Minor.
• The Mets over the Phillies: Great match-up of Cole Hamels and R.A. Dickey. In these super match-ups, it seems impossible to pick which one will have the stellar day. This pick is a 50/50 deal.
• The Cardinals over the Rockies: This picker is officially worried about Lance Lynn. It would have been better for him not to have been picked for the All Star Team. He hasn't been as sharp. Is he fatigued? On talent alone, he should beat the Rockies once a decent Christian Friedrich eats up his 75 pitches.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: Two teams that need to get going and can't seem to. Nathan Eovaldi deserves to win a game. But will today be the day? That is the dilemma here. On the other hand, Wade Miley has been SO good but was bad his last time out. Ugh.
• The Angels over the Orioles: Both pitchers, Garrett Richards and Jake Arrieta (Arrieta gentille Arrieta) had really rough starts their last time out. Richards seems the better pick to snap out of it.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Reds over the Padres: Mat Latos faces his old team. And with the way he's been pitching lately, it will be painful for Padres' fans to watch. Edinson Volquez goes for the Padres.

Yesterday: 6-9

Week: 32-25

Month: 32-25

Season: 664-541

Games of the Day: 53-36 (three day losing streak)

Game Picks - Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Happy 236th birthday, America!

When this picker went to bed last night, the picks sat at 8-3 and a good day seemed to be on its way. The Yankees' loss was frustrating. The Miami pick was right until Heath Bell stepped on the mound. And the Tigers continued their personal crusade to give this picker constipation. But otherwise, things were going well. Not a single pick went right the rest of the evening as the Red Sox, Reds, Cardinals (the pick of the day) and Mariners all lost. Instead of a good day, it became simply another mediocre one.

Ah well. Today is a great day. Today celebrates a brave group of leaders who hammered out a declaration of freedom. That is infinitely more important that who won what baseball game. And yet baseball goes on and as it does, so does the picks:

• The Giants over the Nationals: This game starts before noon! Madison Bumgarner should be better than Edwin Jackson. But you never know with Jackson who can be brilliant just as much as he can be awful.
• The Mets over the Phillies: The Cliff Lee story has become fascinating. Can he turn it around? Is he the symbol of a lost Phillies campaign? And what of Chris Young? You keep waiting for his arm to fall off and he keeps throwing gems. Going with Young and knocking on wood.
• The Pirates over the Astros: Dallas Keuchel continues to confound and Kevin Correia continues to be a fringe major league pitcher. And even so, the Pirates will win.
• The Angels over the Indians: Which pitcher will be worse? That is the story in this one as the struggling Ervin Santana meets the struggling Derek Lowe. Whichever team wins, this picker hopes Shelley Duncan hits another homer. You never should have lost playing time to Johnny Damon, son.
• The Red Sox over the Athletics: Which surprising pitcher will win? AaRon Cook missed no bats in his last start and managed to pitch a gem. Talk about your BABIP starts! Meanwhile, A.J. Griffin has been baffling teams since he first came up this season.
• The Orioles over the Mariners: The Orioles will bring back Chris Tillman to start this one. It's been a long time, man! Giving him the nod over poor Hector Noesi who just loses and loses.
• The Marlins over the Brewers: Okay, here's the thing. Josh Johnson will be terrific for six innings but will not go any further because he cannot find a way to cut down his pitch count. The Marlins have to build enough of a lead on Randy Wolf to make this game bullpen proof.
• The Tigers over the Twins: The Twins are red hot and no longer the laughingstock of baseball. Good on them. But Justin Verlander is still the best pitcher on the planet and single-handedly keeps the fading Tigers division hopes alive. Brian Duensing will keep it close.
• The Royals over the Blue Jays: Luis Mendoza is so hard to predict. He is a BABIP pitcher which means that things all depend on where his batted balls go during the game. Carlos Villanueva is a decent all around kind of pitcher and much like Mendoza in difficulty to predict.
• The Braves over the Cubs: Paul Maholm (read Luis Mendoza up above - same thing) versus Randall Delgado. There has to be a reason why the Braves keep running Delgado out there. Haven't figured that one out yet.
• The White Sox over the Rangers: Going with Dylan Axelrod in this one over Scott Feldman. It was like weighing them on a scale and Axelrod just felt heavier. The White Sox are a tough team right now anyway.
• The Cardinals over the Rockies: The Rockies four man rotation sure seems to have more than four guys in it. Today features Jeremy Guthrie who had been banished to the bullpen. He will probably throw a surprising outing today because that is the way baseball goes. But Adam Wainwright should be better.
• The Reds over the Dodgers: Mike Leake has been very good in his last three starts. Aaron Harang is good at home though. Tough one.
• The Diamondbacks over the Padres: The Padres have been killing the Diamondbacks. But man-crush, Ian Kennedy, is back on the hill for the D-backs. The Padres go with Jason Marquis.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Rays over the Yankees: The Yankees have Tropiphobia and cannot beat the Bay Rays. No matter how flawed this team is and loses to other teams, they will always beat the Yankees at home. David Price over David Phelps.

Yesterday: 8-7

Week: 26-16

Month: 26-16

Season: 658-532

Brett Lawrie's value is a cluster you know what

Brett Lawrie is the perfect example for what is wrong with relying on WAR to settle arguments on how well a player is playing. We want something like WAR because it is simple: One number to symbolize how many wins a player is worth to his team. The problem is that we do not know who to believe. According to Baseball-reference.com, Brett Lawrie is currently the most valuable player in baseball with 4.8 bWAR. Yet, according to the Fangraphs.com leaderboard, Lawrie is not even on the first page of leaders and has a 2.8 fWAR.  Just to round out the roster, Baseball Prospectus has Lawrie at 2.9 WARP. So how can we know how to choose?

Do not misunderstand. Brett Lawrie is having a nice sophomore season. It is slightly disappointing compared to the flying start he had last year. Offensively, he currently has a 106 OPS+. Not spectacular, but solid. His wOBA at .332 is a full 80 points behind last year's figure. His wRC+ is down 58 points from last year at 108. His triple slash line of .291/.337/.435 is pretty good, but still a bit of a letdown from last season. There is a lot of season to go, but as of now, we expected more from Lawrie.

The on-base percentage is troubling and presents a bit of a reality check when looking at Lawrie as an offensive player. Last season, Lawrie was much more patient at the plate. His walk rate was 9.4 percent and his on-base percentage finished at .372. But perhaps that was a fluke because his minor league walk rate was around 7.7 percent. But even that would be preferable to the 5.2 percent this season. Last year, Lawrie walked 16 times in 171 plate appearances. This season, he has 329 plate appearances and has 17 walks. That is just one more than last year. Last year, he only swung at 22.3 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. This season, that rate has jumped to over 30 percent.

Lawrie's slugging percentage is off by a full 144 points. Lawrie had an ISO of .287 last season and this year, it sits at .144. His home runs per fly ball rate is down and that combined with the fact that he his hitting far less fly balls than a year ago have contributed to the power decline. This year, 50.2 percent of his batted balls are grounders compared to a year ago when that rate was at 38.4 percent.

And one thing Lawrie should stop doing is trying to steal bases. He does have eleven stolen bases, but he has been thrown out eight times! Stop running!

Okay, so Lawrie is a bit of a disappointment over a year ago. Still, his numbers show him to be a solid offensive player. 

All that said, Baseball-reference.com thinks he is the most valuable player in baseball right now. Baffling. Fangraphs and BP disagree dramatically. So where is the difference. Fielding of course. B-R gives Lawrie three batting runs. Fangraphs hikes that to 4.3. B-R gives Lawrie a minus 0.1 for base running. Fangraphs gives him 1.2. B-R must factor in the stolen base percentage. Anyway, both of those categories are pretty much in the same ballpark. But the fielding isn't even close.

Fangraphs gives Lawrie 9.1 fielding runs above replacement. Baseball-reference.com gives him 30! B-R breaks their WAR into oWAR (offensive categories only) and dWAR (defensive). They give Lawrie an oWAR of 1.7 but a dWAR of 3.4. If you convert Fangraphs' defensive runs into WAR, you don't even get a full win of WAR from Lawrie's defense.

This disparity really shows the struggles of lay people like yours truly to figure out rankings of players. The rankings are so far off on a player like Brett Lawrie, that they become nonsensical and not reliable. And it will remain this way until the sites and services can come up with some sort of fielding standards that everyone can agree upon.

Brett Lawrie is a breath of fresh air in baseball. His intensity and flair really add excitement to the game and have quickly given the fans of the Blue Jays something special to root for. Just don't ask anyone how good he really is. Because at this point, nobody can agree with that valuation.

Game Picks - Tuesday: July 3, 2012

In the immortal words of the Mamas and the Papas, "Monday, Monday. Can't trust that day." The picks only broke even yesterday in about as blah a day as you could get. The Rays were correctly picked, but the Orioles were not. Those Tigers fooled this picker yet again. The Dodgers seem to be the stupidest pick lately as they keep losing. The Cubs are the hottest team in baseball. What? And the Blue Jays are unfathomable. Ah well. Tuesday is another day.

Tuesday's picks:

• The Marlins over the Brewers: Very tough game to pick. Anibal Sanchez might be the best pitcher in the NL who never wins. Marco Estrada hasn't really done anything for the Brewers. 
• The Nationals over the Giants: Jordan Zimmermann is terrific even if his record doesn't show it. That other Zimmerman over at third base is hot. Tim Lincecum has looked much better, but a big inning by the Nats will sink him.
• The Indians over the Angels: Dan Haren has not been pitching well. Zach McAllister always seems to pitch well when he gets the chance. Tough pick because the Angels' offense is much better than the Indians.
• The Pirates over the Astros: Another pick for A.J. Burnett. Heaven help us all. But he should beat the Astros though Lucas Harrell has looked really good lately.
• The Tigers over the Twins: Another crappy game to pick. Duane Below gets the start for the Tigers after being in the bullpen all season. That's never encouraging. But Nick Blackburn has had nothing all season. Ugh.
• The Blue Jays over the Royals: Another crappy game to pick. What is going on here? Vin Mazzaro versus Brett Cecil? What do you do with that?
• The Braves over the Cubs: So after going 0-6, Chris Volstad was sent to the minors. His ERA there has been 4.52. That doesn't offer any encouragement at all to pick the Cubs. Jair Jurrjens is almost the exact same story as Volstad. So...what is going on today? Is this somebody's idea of a picking joke?
• The Yankees over the Rays: The Yankees have gone zero for Tampa for the last two years now. Today is their only realistic chance to win a game this series as tomorrow's Price versus Phelps match up strongly favors the Rays. With Ivan Nova on the mound for the Yanks, he has to be better than James Shields.
• The Mets over the Phillies: A tough game to call but at least for better reasons. Jon Niese and Vance Worley are both good pitchers. The Mets' offense is simply better than the Phillies' right now.
• The White Sox over the Rangers: Roy Oswalt has two wins. But he really hasn't been all that impressive. Chris Sale goes for the White Sox and that has been an event lately.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: What a fun game this will be! Andrew Cashner versus Trevor Bauer? It doesn't get much more fun than that. Cashner is the more overpowering of the two, so leaning that way.
• The Red Sox over the Athletics: Bartolo Colon is back. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Depends on the Red Sox whose offense has shriveled up the last week or so. Jon Lester gets the start for Boston and that seals the pick.
• The Mariners over the Orioles: Felix Hernandez is back to lights out and seems impossible to hit lately. Wei-Yin Chen is no slouch, but he can't keep up with King Felix if he is right.
• The Reds over the Dodgers: Two pitchers having good years this season: Chris Capuano and Johnny Cueto. Cueto will have something to prove as he was snubbed from the All Star Game. And the Dodgers can't hit right now.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Cardinals over the Rockies: Joe Kelly will hold the Rockies down just enough for the Cardinal offense to do its thing against Jeff Francis, who has been tough lately.

Yesterday: 6-6

Week: 18-9

Month: 18-9

Season: 650-525

Games of the Day: 53-34