MLB Game Picks - Saturday: April 25, 2015

I went 9-5 yesterday with one game awaiting completion after being suspended. The day finally brought me out of a deep early hole and I am above .500 for the season. Gosh, that was an uphill battle. At my lowest ebb, I was seventeen games below .500. At least I feel a little better about things. Once again, there were two extra-inning games and once again, both went against me. That was a common theme last year.

Saturday's picks:

• The Royals over the White Sox: I have little faith in John Danks, I have a little bit more in Edinson Volquez. I am also worried about the health of the White Sox' first baseman.
• The Tigers over the Indians: Alas, Shane Greene did not do well yesterday and that brings us today to Alfredo Simon who is also entering this game at 3-0. Will he fall too? Trevor Bauer has been outstanding for the Indians. Tough call.
• The Reds over the Cubs: Both teams are going to have gassed bullpens. So which team will have a starter rescue it today? I'm going with Anthony DeSclafani, who has been amazing over Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta.
• The Athletics over the Astros: The A's bullpen blew this yesterday. Perhaps that won't happen today. Scott Feldman goes for the Astros. Meh. Kendall Graveman goes for the A's. Meh. I don't like the match-up. So I'll go with the home team.
• The Yankees over the Mets: The Yankees have been killing aces lately and breaking streaks. And the team nobody likes is tied for first. CC Sabathia is 0-3 and Matt Harvey is 3-0. Something either has to give, or it will continue going in that direction. I am encouraged by the Yankees lately.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: I don't understand either of these teams right now. They are just spinning around going nowhere. Stephen Strasburg has to figure out how to win on the road and in Miami. Tom Koehler will keep his team in the game.  Not confident here.
• The Blue Jays over the Rays: The Rays got a big boost from getting James Loney back and the Rays are slugging remarkably well, which has been unexpected. The Blue Jays suffer when Jose Bautista is hurting and Daniel Norris has struggled thus far. So why am I picking the Jays? Because Erasmo Ramirez is starting for the Rays. That's why.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: The Orioles have lost five in a row. Wei-Yin Chen isn't a great match-up against the Red Sox who like to go with the pitch. Justin Masterson has been encouraging with recovering strikeout and ground ball rates. Going with Boston.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: The Brewers are really bad. I mean, they are tank city bad. Wily Peralta is capable of a good day. But the Brewers cannot hit and Adam Wainwright should exploit that.
• The Diamondbacks over the Pirates: Rubby De La Rosa is one of two De La Rosa pitchers pitching today. I'm not sure about him other than that the Pirates won't be familiar with him. A.J. Burnett goes for the Pirates.
• The Rockies over the Giants: The other one, Jorge De La Rosa pitches against the Giants in his second start of the season. The first start didn't go well at all. Tim Hudson has to pitch at Coors. The winner of this game will score double-digits in runs.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Ian Kennedy is coming off the DL to pitch this one. That makes me uncomfortable. Brandon McCarthy has been really good for the Dodgers and is pitching in a big ballpark. I like his chances. Puig is dinged up again though.
• The Angels over the Rangers: Old friends C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis square up here and I prefer Wilson at home.  The whole Josh Hamilton thing still bothers me when it comes to the Angels.
• The Mariners over the Twins: James Paxton is such a key for the Mariners and as of yet, has not pitched well. They need him to if they want to dominate the AL West. Trevor May pitched very well his last time out, but I don't trust that. Nelson Cruz is amazing.

And the Pick of the Day

• The Braves over the Phillies: These two teams will struggle this year and will play each other a lot. The pitching match-ups will mean a lot here. That being the case, I'll take Shelby Miller over David Buchanan.

Yesterday: 9-5, Season: 126-125, Picks of the Day: 10-9

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: April 19, 2015

I had a second very good day in a row. I am feeling much better about myself, but still a far way from even a .500 record. One of the few I got wrong was saying that I really wanted to pick Dallas Keuchel and then not doing so. Listen to your first instincts!

Sunday's picks:

• The Blue Jays over the Braves: This is a very tough call. Shelby Miller has looked great. But so has Daniel Norris. Shelby Miller has more experience having been to the post season. But the Blue Jays have an explosive offense. When in doubt, go with the home team.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: I'm expecting Shane Greene to have his bubble popped sooner or later. But perhaps not today. The Tigers got whomped last night. Today will be different. Jose Quintana could be a tough customer though.
• The Mets over the Marlins: It's Matt Harvey day and that has become must-see baseball. Tom Koehler has been doing just fine himself, but he is no Harvey. Taking Harvey at home as it seems a no-brainer.
• The Yankees over the Bay Rays: I like thinking about Michael Pineda in the heat where he can be loose and himself. That could be spectacular. I know little about Matt Andriese, who goes for the Rays.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: Miguel Gonzalez won't pitch like he did against the Yankees. The Yankees make him look like Cy Young. And I think Rick Porcello will keep the Orioles in check.
• The Nationals over the Phillies: Here we go with Stephen Strasburg again. Between him and Harang, from yesterday, the two dog my days and give me bad dreams. But good golly, Strasburg should be better than David Buchanan.
• The Indians over the Twins: Ugh. Two pitchers I have no faith in with Trevor May going for the Twins and T.J. House going for the Indians. Both but a bad taste in my picks. One of the teams has to win...
• The Angels over the Astros: First, I have little faith in Scott Feldman. Secondly, it is the 2015 debut for Garrett Richards and all I can say to that is, weeeeee!
• The Royals over the Athletics: This is a really tough one. I really like Scott Kazmir and I really like Danny Duffy. I am going with the Royals because they are at home and can win in a variety of ways.
• The Cubs over the Padres: Here are two clubs who thought they were significantly better this season and neither has been. Will either of them live up to the expectation? Jon Lester over Andrew Cashner.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: I'm looking good in my thought that the D-backs made a mistake in acquiring Jeremy Hellickson.  Then again, I never know how good Tim Hudson is going to be these days.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Eddie Rogers has gotten away--thus far--with walking ten batters in eleven innings. That will burn him sooner or later, especially since he isn't a big strikeout guy. Brandon McCarthy has become a wicked tough pitcher again.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: James Paxton needs to tighten it up a little bit but he can be really good. Ross Detwiler gave up five runs in his last outing and his ERA went down. Heh. I think the M's will romp.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: The Cards have had their way this series and finish it off with Adam Wainwright. So it's nice how that worked out. Mike Leake just sort of exists out of the corner of the mind, doesn't he?

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Pirates over the Brewers: I'm pretty convinced that the Brewers are going to have a really bad season. Gerrit Cole should have his way with their offense and Matt Garza will yield a couple of runs.

Yesterday: 10-5, Season: 83-88, Picks of the Day: 5-8

MLB Game Picks - Monday: April 13, 2015

Well, what do you know!? I actually had a good picking day and even had the Pick of the Day come in. And the Yankees actually scored a bunch of runs. What a good day! I am actually pinching myself in disbelief.

Here are Monday's picks:

• The Mets over the Phillies: Aaron Harang has made a career out of making me look foolish. In all his years of pitching, I have probably picked against him 85% of the time. And since he has won 49% of his decisions, that is a problem. And guess what? I'm picking against him again today. Jacob deGrom goes for the Mets.
• The Pirates over the Tigers: The Tigers have to lose some time and they lose the DH today. Anibal Sanchez was really good his first time out. I'm thinking Gerrit Cole will be even stronger at home.
• The Nationals over the Red Sox: The Nats and Jordan Zimmermann ruin the Red Sox home opener. The Red Sox have to be really tired today. Rick Porcello goes for the beantowners.
• The Royals over the Twins: The Royals' perfect record should not come to an end today. First, Trevor May has not proved he can pitch in the Majors and secondly, Danny Duffy should be able to hold down the Twins' limited offense.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Anyone who has read my stuff for a while knows my feelings about Matt Garza. I don't respect him. I don't trust him. Adam Wainwright at home is a whole different story of comfort for me.
• The Giants over the Rockies: I'm not sure what will happen with the two starting pitchers. Both Eddie Butler and Chris Heston had very good first starts and that was unexpected in both cases. I just think the Giants will win their home opener.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Perhaps last night made me a bit giddy, but I like the Yankees against left-handed pitching and think they are better served facing Wei-Yin Chen now than at any time last year. Plus, if Michael Pineda is on, he won't give up much.
• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: In the first battle of the Ays this year, I give the advantage to the Blue Jays in their home opener. R.A. Dickey likes it at home and Jake Odorizzi faces a tough lineup.
• The Cubs over the Reds: Jon Lester makes his second start for the Cubs and they sure hope it gets better than the first time out. And it should. A lot will depend on the wind in Wrigley though. Mike Leake goes for the Reds. I hope the toilets work.
• The Angels over the Rangers: The only game the Angels have won is because Matt Shoemaker pitched. He pitches again today, so that should prove helpful. Ross Detwiler goes for the Rangers and that did not go so well the first time around.
• The Athletics over the Astros: It won't be a good day for Texas as both the Rangers and Astros lose. Scott Feldman goes for the 'Stros and Scott Kazmir for the A's.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: Andrew Cashner was a little unlucky in his last outing and looked good otherwise. Rubby De La Rosa was awful his first time out and still got the win. So there you go. I'm guessing a 4-1 win here for the Padres.
• The Mariners over the Dodgers: I think this game will be decided by the bullpens. I think Brandon McCarthy and James Paxton will both be great and turn it over to the pens. The Dodgers' bullpen is a mess, hence, the Mariners' pick.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Braves over the Marlins: I have serious misgivings about Mat Latos. He just doesn't seem right anymore. The Marlins have come out of the gate very slow. Shelby Miller was a great pickup for the Braves and should keep the Marlins on the downside.

Yesterday: 10-5, Season: 42-49, Picks of the Day: 2-4

MLB Game Picks - Sunday, April 5, 2015

And so it begins. The 2015 Major League Baseball season beings tonight in Chicago in a torn up ballpark that used to be and may someday again be Wrigley Field. ESPN will cover the game. Check that...it is ESPN2. MLB doesn't even rate the prime network. This is the first Game Picks post of the year.

What are Game Picks? Every day, I will give a preview of each game and predict which team will win. This is not a betting feature and not meant to help you with your wagers, if that is your thing. There are a lot more scientific tools to use than this! I do this for fun and has run for several years now. I haven't missed a day for over three years.

So here we go.

The Cardinals over the Cubs: The Cardinals are the perennial NL Central champs and until they are dethroned, have to be considered the favorites again. The pitching match-up is an interesting one. Adam Wainwright is pitching under a cloud of concern after the way he broke down at the end of the season. Jon Lester is starting fresh with the Cubs after signing on to be their ace in years ahead. I'm expecting the game to go against type and become an offensive battle with the Cards out-slugging the Cubs.

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: October 16, 2014

My post season record got a little better last night as both picks were correct. But it did not take some kind of genius to see what writing has been on the wall in the LCS. Congrats to the fans of the Kansas City Royals who have blown their way into the World Series with eight straight post season wins. A small ball team like the Royals are a perfect exclamation mark on this year the offense died in Major League Baseball.

The Giants' Bruce Bochy manages these playoff games like he has been there before. Mike Matheny manages them like you should be glad his finger is not on the atomic bomb buttons. You can actually see the panic in his moves and it did not take long for Matheny to manage that mess after being staked to a 4-1 lead. Two of the managers that get the most in-game flak in baseball are Ned Yost and Matheny. Yost has written his contract for the next three or four seasons. Matheny could be in a whole lot of trouble.

Will the Giants turn out the switch tonight on the Cardinals' season? It sure looks like they are set up to do so.

The pick:

• The Giants over the Cardinals: This is a renewal of the Adam Wainwright and Madison Bumgarner match-up. The Giants could not ask for a better setup. Bumgarner has been brilliant and Wainwright has spent most of his last month fighting off speculation that he is injured. When most of the talk is about a pitcher's health instead of his pitching, that is never a good thing. From what I am seeing here in the cheap seats, The Giants look poised to continue their every other year walk to victory.

Yesterday: 2-0, Post season: 10-14, Season: 1375-1104

Tweet of the night:

@FlagrantFan @dmbfan81 “I like what water brings to the table. Water is our guy and it doesn’t matter what kind of fire it is.” Matheny
— cigarmike (@cigarmike) October 16, 2014

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: October 11, 2014

A very exciting game started off the American League Championship Series and if that game is a harbinger of things to come, it's going to be a great series. Unfortunately for me, the outcome went against my pick. I got the substance of the pick right with the Royals taking the early lead and the O's coming back strong. But the O's merely tied the game instead of going ahead and that allowed the Royals to win the game in extra innings. The Royals' bullpen was superb.

We have two games today as the ALCS continues and the NLCS begins. There is a big match-up in the NLCS and that should be difficult to figure out. With my record in the post season, my confidence at this point is pretty low. But here goes.

The picks:

• The Orioles over the Royals: The Royals have been unbelievable so far this post season. There is no doubt about that. They have not wilted in any sense of the word. That said, I have a little more confidence in Bud Norris at this point than Yordano Ventura. My only reservation with this pick is watching the O's go down easy against the power-pitching Royals' bullpen. Will Ventura similarly outmatch them? We'll see, but I have to go again with the Orioles at home.

• The Giants over the Cardinals: This is a big time pitching match-up of Adam Wainwright and Madison Bumgarner. I looked up both of their career records against their opposing teams and both have only been so-so over the years against the team they are facing. The Cardinals used to be vulnerable to lefties, but not anymore. This pick comes down to which pitcher is best capable of a big shutdown game and that would be Bumgarner. Besides, with one exception, the opening game of every series this post season has been won by the visiting team.

Yesterday: 0-1, Post Season: 6-11, Season: 1371-1101

MLB Game Picks - Friday: October 3, 2014

The two home teams in the ALDS had completely opposite days. The Orioles romped and the Angels lost to a gritty Royals team that knows how to play those close games. The results gave me a 1-1 day picking. At least I finally got my first correct pick of the post season.

Of course it was the extra-inning game that got me yesterday. And the home loss puts the Angels in a bind. Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton went a combined 0-13 in the game. There is no way the Angels win if that continues.

Today is playoff nirvana with four games. If you were so inclined, you could watch all four games from noon today (Eastern Time) through after midnight. It should be a fun day.

The picks:

• The Orioles over the Tigers: Again, there is something about this Orioles team. They just seem to have it, if you know what I mean. Justin Verlander is no longer the top dog on the Tigers' rotation and the Orioles already beat the top dog. Wei-Yin Chen is the wild card here. How he pitches will depend on how the game goes. I'm going Orioles.
• The Nationals over the Giants: Stephen Strasburg worries me. How will he pitch today? But Jake Peavy scares me more. The odds of the Nationals' lineup getting to Peavy seem greater in this case. Peavy has been here before, however, and Strasburg has not.
• The Dodgers over the Cardinals: What a great match-up this is (on paper). Clayton Kershaw versus Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has been through this a half dozen times and knows what he has to do. Kershaw has had one crack at it and did not do well. But head to head, you've got to believe that Kershaw completely shuts down the Cardinals while Wainwright begrudgingly gives up a two-spot.
• The Angels over the Royals: Nothing like picking only home teams, there, William. How has that worked out for you so far? Not very good. I worry more about Yordano Ventura than I do Matt Shoemaker. But the worry for Shoemaker is his health. He didn't pitch the last couple of weeks and who knows how effective he will be. If this was the Matt Shoemaker that was on the roll for July and August, I would not hesitate. Now there is much hesitation.

Yesterday: 1-1, Post Season: 1-3, Season: 1366-1093

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: September 28, 2014

The last day of the regular season. Or is it? There is a possibility of three ties today if the Cards, Tigers and Oakland lose and the Mariners, Royals and Pirates win. You cannot get much more exciting than that!

I went 9-6 yesterday which isn't bad considering how crazy this all is and how a lot of teams are just playing out the string. The one big takeaway from the season was the party Chicago threw for Paul Konerko. Well done, White Sox. He deserved such a grand exit.

It should be an interesting day!  The picks:

• The Rays over the Indians: This will be a low scoring game I think. T.J. House has been pitching well and the Rays don't hit lefties particularly well. I have to go with Alex Cobb who has been terrific this season.
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: R.A. Dickey is another pitcher that has baffled me when picking his games. I am never correct with him. I think the Orioles will hit him. But I think the Blue Jays will hit Miguel Gonzalez too. Two great offenses.
• The Tigers over the Twins: David Price hasn't exactly been shut-down for the Tigers on most occasions. And Kyle Gibson can make you hit into a lot of outs. But I can't see the Twins winning this one and the Tigers always tease us and then take the division anyway.
• The Astros over the Mets: There is a lot going on in this game. Nick Tropeano is from the New York area and will want to do well. He has looked good in his handful of starts. Bartolo Colon is always a mystery. His 14-13 record tells you that. He's ether decent or he's very generous. Who knows.
• The Pirates over the Reds: Johnny Cueto goes for his 20th win. That would be cool. It's not going to happen. Gerrit Cole will pitch even better and the Pirates will force the Cardinals to win and waste Wainwright...well, not waste him, but have to use him.
• The Phillies over the Braves: Two teams going home after today. I got this pick wrong yesterday. Cole Hamels is not A.J. Burnett and James Russell is a loogy who has relieved 65 times this year...and he is the starter!?
• The Nationals over the Marlins: Sure, Henderson Alvarez has had a terrific season. His team faces Jordan Zimmermann who will match him for zeroes, and then what happens? It won't be good for the Marlins.
• The Yankees over the Red Sox: The last time Micheal Pineda pitched against the Red Sox, the infamous pine tar incident played out. Jeter's last game, Pineda's revenge and one more Clay Buchholz meltdown and the season will be over for both teams.
• The Royals over the White Sox: Chris Bassitt messed up the Tigers in his last outing with a great performance. Can he do it again against the Royals? Maybe, but he will be more than matched with Yordano Ventura who will come through today where Duffy did not yesterday.
• The Athletics over the Rangers: I have to admit that I am rooting for a tie between the A's and the Mariners. But I don't think it will happen. The A's will beat the Rangers behind Sonny Gray simply because Nick Martinez will not be able to hold back the A's.
• The Giants over the Padres: Chris Heston had very good numbers in the Pacific Coast League, which is impressive since that league eats up pitchers for breakfast. I think he'll have a big day in his first MLB start. Robbie Erlin can be decent.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: I'm not sure why the Dodgers are starting Zack Greinke. Is that necessary for them to do so? But that's what the pitching line says. The Dodgers win then against Christian Bergman.
• The Mariners over the Angels: The Mariners have only one chance to win the wild card, which means they have to win. That also means Felix Hernandez has to get it done. The M's season is on the line. Hernandez's CYA is on the line. It should be interesting because the Angels are not going to play dead. Cory Rasmus pitches for the Angels.
• The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: This game has two scenarios: First, getting the late game, the Cards will know whether the Pirates won or not. If the Pirates won, then Adam Wainwright will have to start to win the division. So that would be one pick. If the Pirates lose, the Cards win the division without even playing, put a scrub pitcher in there and Josh Collmenter wins. Tough call for a game picker.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Brewers over the Cubs: Mike Fiers makes the ultimate impression and seals his spot in the rotation for next year. I still can't understand why it took the Brewers half the year to get him in there in the first place. Jacob Turner will keep improving with the Cubs. But he will get beat today.

Yesterday: 9-6, Sept.: 226-149, Games of the Day: 103-67 (-2), Season: 1356-1083