MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: June 16, 2015

I effectively reversed the results of Sunday, which makes me feel a whole lot better. Tanaka got out-dueled by Tom Koehler and I never expected the Nationals to lose their starter in the first inning due to injury. But overall, it was a good day.

Tuesday's picks:

• The Cardinals over the Twins: Michael Wacha has already won eight games. He should extend the Twins' slide tonight. Kyle Gibson is capable of staying with him for a while, but the Cardinals will prevail.
• The Astros over the Rockies: Chris Rusin and Vincent Velasquez are two good looking young pitchers. Velasquez is a little more erratic. But I still like Houston in this one, especially at home.
• The Padres over the Athletics: The Bud Black dismissal was not unexpected. Perhaps the team had a hangover about it last night. But they bounce back tonight and Andrew Cashner gets a rare win. Scott Kazmir goes for the A's.
• The Giants over the Mariners: I keep waiting for Robinson Cano to bust out, but he hasn't yet. and Nelson Cruz has hit a wall of sorts. Tim Lincecum will need to be good though. J.A. Happ goes for the M's.
• The Braves over the Red Sox: Again, they are talking about clubhouse issues in Boston. John Farrell's noose is getting tighter. Wade Miley won't help and Julio Teheran shuts them down...again.
• The Pirates over the White Sox: Picking Chicago was a big mistake yesterday. I won't make the same one today. Charlie Morton over Jose Quintana.
• The Orioles over the Phillies: The Phillies are so bad. Gosh. The Orioles should have no trouble here. Chris Tillman vs. Jerome Williams.
• The Yankees over the Marlins: Both Nathan Eovaldi and David Phelps are pitching against their former teams and both will be motivated. I think Alex Rodriguez needs to play third in this one and give Chris Headley a breather.
• The Mets over the Blue Jays: The Mets ended the Jays' winning streak last night and built their division lead in the process. Matt Harvey has had some poor outings lately. He needs to bounce back tonight. Scott Copeland was brilliant in his first start. Is that real though?
• The Nationals over the Rays: The Rays keep rolling and the only games they lose are when Alex Colome pitches. He pitches tonight. Tanner Roark goes for the Nats.
• The Cubs over the Indians: The same match-up as last night's postponed game: Jake Arrieta over Trevor Bauer.
• The Rangers over the Dodgers: Chi Chi Gonzalez came back to earth with a thud in his last outing. Will he bounce back? Can Brett Anderson hold down the Rangers' lineup? We'll see.
• The Royals over the Brewers: I do not know how Chris Young does it. But he does and picking against him has not worked for me. Matt Garza throws strikes. The Royals like strikes.
• The Angels over the Diamondbacks: I was wrong with this one last night and Jeremy Hellickson has been good of late. But I have to go with Garrett Richards and the Angels here.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Tigers over the Reds: I like Michael Lorenzen. But I like the Tigers more than the Reds and I especially like what Kyle Ryan is giving the Tigers right now.

Yesterday: 9-5, June: 106-100, Season: 484-449, Picks of the Day: 37-32

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: June 10, 2015

I got smoked by the results yesterday. Wow. For every correct pick I had, there were two incorrect picks. Yeah, that's bad. Congrats to young Mr. Jungmann winning his first MLB start and appearance. But I did not expect you to win. Congrats Chris Heston on your no-hitter, but I picked against you. Congrats Eduardo Gonzalez on another great start. But your team couldn't score. It was a good day for rookies (if you don't count Noah Syndergaard) and a bad day for me.

Wednesday picks:

• The Reds over the Phillies: I have no idea about this one. Jon Moscot starts for the Reds and I know very little about him. I know Jerome Williams of the Phillies and he throws an occasional good game. But Joey Votto is on fire, so I'll go with the Reds.
• The Blue Jays over the Marlins: This is another one to throw up my hands and go, "I don't know!" Scott Copeland is an overachiever for the Blue Jays as a high round draft pick who worked quickly through the Blue Jays' system. He doesn't strike people out. The Marlins start Tom Koehler, but their team is in such disarray (besides Giancarlo Stanton) that I can't trust them. Eight in a row for the Blue Jays?
• The Yankees over the Nationals: Speaking of eight in a row, that is what the Yankees are shooting for tonight. Nathan Eovaldi will either give them a good outing or get blown up by homers. There is no in between. Get the bullpen ready. Gio Gonzalez can be had right now.
• The Rockies over the Cardinals: Ugh! Another tough pick. Chad Bettis has been spectacular as has Carlos Martinez. Which one cracks tonight? The Cards have some injuries right now.
• The Orioles over the Red Sox: The Red Sox are doing slightly better against lefties lately, but are still poor overall. That's why I give the edge to Wei-Yin Chen over Rick Porcello. The Orioles are hitting again.
• The Cubs over the Tigers: Shane Greene is still in the Tigers' rotation after pitching terribly since the first month of the season. Not good. Meanwhile, Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta can be very tough.
• The Rays over the Angels: You have to tip your cap to the pitching coach of the Rays. He stayed put while everyone left and look what he has done for Erasmo Ramirez. It's quite remarkable, really. Jered Weaver remains my least favorite player in baseball. What a jerk on the field he is.
• The Braves over the Padres: Tyson Ross is a very talented pitcher whose control has been his worst enemy this season. If he puts it together, this pick is toast. If not, and if Williams Perez keeps being decent, the Braves should win.
• The Mets over the Giants: The young phenom, Matt Harvey, faces the borderline Hall of Fame pitcher, Tim Hudson. Interesting match-up. I have to go with Harvey.
• The Mariners over the Indians: Trevor Bauer pitched great for the Indians last time they faced the Mariners last week. But he lost. Will that change tonight? It all depends on Taijuan Walker, a kid everyone has been waiting for to put it together. If he does, look out.
• The Astros over the White Sox: Carlos Correa has been fantastic thus far. And Vincent Velasquez is making his MLB debut after blowing people away in the minors since he was drafted in 2010. I like his chances tonight against the White Sox and Jose Quintana.
• The Royals over the Twins: The Royals are just the better team here. That said, whenever I pick against Kyle Gibson, I look stupid. And picking Edinson Volquez still makes me queasy.
• The Rangers over the Athletics: The Rangers have been really surprising to me. That being the case, I'm picking them here behind Yovani Gallardo against the A's and Jesse Hahn.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: Jeremy Hellickson has been on a nice roll and Brett Anderson has not been. So that's the pick.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Pirates over the Brewers: This pick was wrong yesterday and I hate picking Charlie Morton. But he is another pitcher I don't believe in that makes me look foolish all the time. He is 3-0 after all. Kyle Lohse goes for the Brewers.

Yesterday: 5-10 (ouch), June: 61-59, Season: 439-412, Picks of the Day: 34-29 (-2)

MLB Game Picks - Monday: June 2, 2014

June began with a 9-6 day and I would be okay with that except the Game of the Day pick was incorrect...AGAIN! I figured Zack Greinke was pretty much a lock at home. I figured wrong. Every other ace won. But not Zack Greinke. There is no light at the end of that feature's tunnel. And the Yankees pick was correct for eight innings. Unfortunately, they play nine innings. What a spectacular blown save that was.

Monday is a short day with only eight games on the schedule. Here are the picks:

• The Indians over the Red Sox: This pick only works if Justin Masterson has a good day. He has had some good games against Boston over the years and some bad ones. He is the key. John Lackey has been awfully good, but less so on the road. Masterson has led the league the last two years in hitting batters. That aught to be fun.
• The Mets over the Phillies: The game will probably go into extra innings again. Heh. I like Bartolo Colon over Roberto Hernandez here.
• The Rays over the Marlins: The Rays went zero for the weekend, so you just know they are going to win today. That's how it always works. Alex Cobb came back dominant and should be today in that big ballpark. Randy Wolf? Not so much.
• The Twins over the Brewers: Kyle Gibson has been very good this season. Matt Garza is 2-4. So are the Brewers losing you wins too, Matt? Maybe you lose your own wins, son.
• The Cardinals over the Royals: Danny Duffy has the stuff to do well. But he cannot put it together as a starter. I'm not sure why. Watch him do so tonight as I pick against him. I picked him last time and he was bombed. Shelby Miller goes for the Cards.
• The Dodgers over the White Sox: Jose Abreu should be back. Jose Quintana is better than people think and none of that will matter if Clayton Kershaw is on his game. He hasn't always been since he got back though.
• The Pirates over the Padres: This might be a reaction to the last time I picked Tim Stauffer to win. I've always liked him, so I picked him and he did not get out of the first inning. Charlie Morton is a better pitcher than I've ever given him credit for, but I still don't inwardly believe it.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Mariners over the Yankees: Felix Hernandez loves pitching against the Yankees and isn't it kind of the Mariners to save him up for the makeup game today? The Yankees are slumping at the plate and David Phelps can't match zeroes with the King.

Yesterday: 9-6, June: 9-6, Games of the Day: 26-32, Season: 465-383

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: May 28, 2014

I should be happy. I reversed a 5-10 day on Monday to go 10-4 on Tuesday. But that darned Game of the Day feature is driving me crazy. For a reminder, the Game of the Day is the pick that seems the easiest of the day or the one I feel the most confident about. Last year, that feature was correct 60% of the time and was 35 correct picks over .500. That still wasn't great for being that confident a pick, but this year, the feature is simply terrible.

Take yesterday for example. I had Yu Darvish and the Texas Rangers. Reasonable, right? But what is announced around six o'clock in the evening? Darvish has a sore neck and might be going on the disabled list. Poof goes the pick, the Twins win and the stupid feature is back to three games under water. Grrr.

Wednesday's picks:

• The Pirates over the Mets: I don't like this pick because Charlie Morton is pitching for the Pirates. But he is doing so in a good pitchers park at Citi Field. Plus, a fastball pitcher like Bartolo Colon pitching to fastball happy Pittsburgh doesn't seem favorable.
• The Royals over the Astros: The Royals need a kick in the pants and they won't get it from the manager they have now. But they should still win behind Danny Duffy over Jarred Cosart.
• The Giants over the Cubs: Tim Lincecum has been pitching fairly well and the Giants are rolling. They should roll over the Cubs and Edwin Jackson.
• The Rockies over the Phillies: A lot of attention has been placed on the Rockies and the team's non-Coors offense and rightly so. But the Phillies are no great shakes on offense home or away. And Jordan Lyles is pitching really well. Look for the Rockies' road offense to get a boost off of Roberto Hernandez.
• The Nationals over the Marlins: This is the same pitching line that was supposed to happen yesterday but couldn't because of the rain. And I still think Blake Treinen comes out better than Henderson Alvarez.
• The Bay Rays over the Blue Jays: The battle of the ays continues and I think the Blue Jays finally lose a game here. Yes, Liam Hendriks won his first start. But he is still Liam Hendriks. Chris Archer has had some command issues, but he hasn't given up an earned run in his last two starts.
• The Red Sox over the Braves: Talk about any meme you want. The Red Sox have woken up. They will pounce on Gavin Floyd and John Lackey will win a game at Fenway most of the time.
• The Brewers over the Orioles: Yovani Gallardo had the pinch hit game winner on Tuesday night, so I have to pick him to win today, right? He is good at home anyway and Bud Norris is not a guy I ever have confidence in.
• The White Sox over the Indians: The Indians are banged up. There is no Nick Swisher or Carlos Santana. My only problem here is the pitching match-up which is like picking the worst of two negatives. Hector Noesi versus T.J. House. Yikes!
• The Twins over the Rangers: Maybe this is one too many incarnations for Joe Saunders. Maybe he'll make me look like a chump and pitch a good game. Maybe it won't matter because Kyle Gibson is pretty good, especially at home.
• The Cardinals over the Yankees: The Yankees look really tired. Mark Teixeira's bat is missed in the lineup. They struggle over power arms like Shelby Miller and Hiroki Kuroda has no stamina left. This has Cardinal win all over it.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: Chase Anderson has been fairly productive so far for the D-backs. But I have always liked Tim Stauffer and it looks like the latter is back to where he needs to be. I have to go that way.
• The Athletics over the Tigers: The two teams have split the series so far. And a lefty like Scott Kazmir doesn't have the match-up advantage over the Tigers' lineup like he has other times. But I still like the A's here over Anibal Sanchez.
• The Mariners over the Angels: This is a great pitching match-up with Felix Hernandez going against C.J. Wilson. On the one hand, I like lefties against the Mariners. But it's just too hard to pick against King Felix.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Reds: Anytime you have Clayton Kershaw on the mound, you have to give the Dodgers the nod. Make it a home game and even more so. Homer Bailey could have a great game and spoil the party, but I still think the Dodgers win.

Yesterday: 10-4, May: 197-174, Games of the Day: 25-28, Season: 430-346

MLB Game Picks - Friday: April 18, 2014

Yesterday was brutal. The picks got their butts paddled like those guys in the movie, "Turning 21." Yes, the things we will watch for our teenage children. The Twins? What is with the Twins!? Sabathia was good while David Price was bad!? A.J. Burnett, who has looked like the Yankees' version all season thus far throws a gem!? Why would I pick the Astros to win!? And there were two great pitching match-ups yesterday. Both went against me.

But, we move on. Baseball is an every day sport. So, like Joe Maddon said in his tweet last night, "When you let it bother you, that's when it gets more profound." Okay, Joe.

Friday's picks:

• The Reds over the Cubs: Alfredo Simon has been incredibly good thus far as a starter. Will that continue? Not likely. But the Cubs can't hit. Jeff Samardzija spits into the wind.
• The Pirates over the Brewers: Yesterday's whipping kind of rips away the Brewers' 2014 mystique. Charlie Morton over Kyle Lohse. I'm not sure about this pick because Morton is always a scary deal.
• The Nationals over the Cardinals: Left handed pitching has the Cards a more of a chance to lose than the opposite and Gio Gonzalez is a good one. Michael Wacha can shut the Nats down though and if that happens, anything can happen.
• The Indians over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays got spanked by Minnesota. So you would think the Indians could beat them too, especially at home. Justin Masterson has to pitch well and Drew Hutchison can be very good at times too.
• The Tigers over the Angels: Jered Weaver has looked awful. Watch him throw a gem tonight. Heh. Drew Smyly <--the Emoticon goes for the Tigers.
• The Mets over the Braves: There is no way that Aaron Harang is this good. The coach has to turn into the pumpkin and it has to be midnight soon. Jonathon Niese isn't a great option either.
• The Yankees over the Bay Rays: The Yankees have caught the Rays in a down time. Erik Bedard is the wild card here and Hiroki Kuroda needs to be good for the pick to come in.
• The Marlins over the Mariners: Nathan Eovaldi is starting to convince me. Chris Young can't put two good performances in a row in, can he?
• The Rangers over the White Sox: Martin Perez has been very good. Felipe Paulino has been very bad. Thus are the basis of some picks made.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: The Red Sox are starting to look resilient again. You didn't think they were going to stay bad, did you? John Lackey over Chris Tillman.
• The Royals over the Twins:  I keep rubbing my eyes and when they clear, the Twins keep winning and I keep picking against them. We all have our weaknesses. Jason Vargas over Ricky Nolasco.
• The Phillies over the Rockies: You just know that the score of this one will be like 10-9 or something, right? Jonathan Pettibone versus Tyler Chatwood means a wild night at Coors.
• The Athletics over the Astros: You know that Sonny Gray is my guy, right? I never pick against him. He is like that Strat-O-Matic baseball pitcher that you pitch every night and he wins 30 games in a season. Jerred Cosart has his good moments.
• The Giants over the Padres: Tyson Ross was very good in his last start and so was Matt Cain. So this is a tough call. I'm going with the Giants.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: The Dbacks haven't beat the Dodgers all year and are 4-14. They face Zack Greinke. They pitch Wade Miley. None of this is looking good.

Yesterday: 4-8 Oof, Games of the Day: 7-7 Come on now! Season: 135-96

MLB Game Picks - Monday: October 7, 2013

Both games were picked correctly yesterday though the Dodgers - Braves game did not go according to what I envisioned. Hyun-jin Ryu was ineffective for the Dodgers and they quickly went to Chris Capuano. That decision won the game because Capuano was terrific and he earned the win. The Braves, as we shall see in a minute, are now in big trouble.

The Pirates also have the Cardinals on the ropes, but we shall see if the shortness of their rotation becomes a factor as they lack a shut down guy today and if the series extends, have to come back with A.J. Burnett, who was shellacked in his last outing.

The two ALDS games will be exciting too. The Tigers and A's are tied and the series goes to Detroit. The Red Sox have a chance to sweep the Rays but must do so down in St. Pete. Four big games today. It should be fascinating.

The picks:

• The Tigers over the Athletics: Jarrod Parker is my problem here. At times, he looks spectacular and on others, not so much. His one start against the Tigers this season was disastrous. His home/road splits do not tell us much nor do his day/night splits. I think the Tigers hit him. Anibal Sanchez goes for the Tigers and few people realize what a great season he had. His record does not pop out at you, but he is right there among the leaders in many categories. If he pitches well, the Tigers win.

• The Cardinals over the Pirates: This game completely depends on how Michael Wacha pitches. The young stud pitcher for St. Louis has the kind of arm that can shut down anyone. But he is young and he makes mistakes. If he can limit them today and get off to a good start, the Cardinals win. If he doesn't start well, then anything can happen with the fans in Pittsburgh going nuts. Charlie Morton does not strike fear in anyone. He is a pitcher totally dependent on BABIP or where his batted balls go upon contact.

• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: I see a sweep. Clay Buchholz has been unbelievable this season and if he is good today, the Rays will not get him. I questioned Lackey in Game 2, but as a Twitter pal pointed out, Lackey is better at home and if the Red Sox won, could come back with Buchholz for game, set and match. The only sticking point is Alex Cobb, who has been amazing himself. But that amazing goes against every team except the Red Sox. The Red Sox can make any pitcher look mortal and if that offense shows up, there will be nothing Cobb can do to stop them. Cobb lost only three games this season. One of them was to the Red Sox. Overall, he faced them four times and had a 5.16 ERA against them.

• The Dodgers over the Braves: The Braves are in big trouble and I see the Dodgers closing out the series today. Fredi Gonzalez's decision to bring Alex Wood into the game as a long reliever in yesterday's game means that Freddy Garcia will start for them today. Excuse me while I pause to gag. Oh, Freddy is capable of a surprise good start. He has done it a couple of times this season. But he has given up 18 homers in just 81 innings. Yeah, that's bad. Alex Wood should have started this game and Garcia should have performed the long relief. Of course, Ricky Nolasco had a great start with the Dodgers and kind of petered out as the season went along. But gosh, all he has to do is be ordinary today and the Dodgers should win.

Yesterday: 2-0

Post season: 8-5

Season: 1382-1073

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: September 18, 2013

Although I had a decent picking day and am having a good picking week, a failure milestone was reached yesterday. I went past a thousand incorrect picks for the season yesterday. While I know from four years of experience that such a failure rate will occur, it is one of those numbers that brings reality home. I have been wrong a thousand times this season. I am pretty sure that this is the earliest I have reached the mark as this has been a difficult season.

It is hard to believe that there are only eleven days left in the season. Wednesday's picks:

• The White Sox over the Twins: The battle of bad teams continues and the White Sox have won the first two games of the series. A sweep is in sight in this getaway day game. John Danks should finally get a win and Scott Diamond has the bullpen lose it late.
• The Athletics over the Angels: A.J. Griffin at home is a really solid pick. Jason Vargas is capable of putting up a good game, especially in a big ballpark like the Coliseum. I expect low scoring and a tight game.
• The Braves over the Nationals: The Nats have won nine out of ten and are surging perhaps a bit too late to reach the Reds. They are still four and a half games out. While Ross Ohlendorf has been amazing, I think Alex Wood will be better.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: This is a battle of fringe Major League pitchers. Zach Minor has had several turns in the Majors but has never been able to stick. He has pitched thirteen times in relief for Philly, but this is his first start. Nathan Eovaldi has had a good game here and there with a bunch of mediocrity thrown in.
• The Pirates over the Padres: The Padres have beaten the Pirates two days in a row with some nice pitching. Either that or the Pirates bats have gone in a slump. The good news for the Pirates is that Tyson Ross is not nearly as good as the first two pitchers they faced in this series. Charlie Morton with the win.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Have you ever watched Survivor and one of the challenges is trying to stack these wooden card pieces to a certain height? That reminds me of the Yankees season. The Yankees come to the next to last week with their cards stacked wobbly near the top only to all come crashing down before reaching the end.  J.A. Happ over Phil Hughes.
• The Tigers over the Mariners: Hisashi Iwakuma has had a very nice season. And he should do well in the Tigers' big ballpark. So the question remains of what Justin Verlander shows up. He looked much more dominant his last outing. I have to go with Verlander at the end of the season and the Tigers' lineup.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: I was wrong here yesterday and this pick is no guaranteed one either. Wei-Yin Chen has faltered this season after a strong debut season a year ago. I have to believe that he is not really healthy. Jake Peavy needs to prove his case for the post season. In my mind, he has not done that yet. I am still rooting for Chris Davis though.
• The Rangers over the Rays: This is one of those reverse logic picks. Derek Holland has not pitched well this season and even worse of late. So naturally, he is screaming for me to pick against him. But then he shuts down the Rays and the Rangers score a few off of Chris Archer and foul it all up. I got you.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: This is a battle for youngsters trying to make a mark in the Big Leagues. Tyler Thornburg has made a better impression so far than Chris Rusin has. So that is my pick.
• The Astros over the Athletics: This is my upset special of the day. Brad Peacock has won his last two starts and four of his last six decisions. He has elevated his K-rate while lowering his walk rate. Combine those facts with the A's starting journeyman, Greg Reynolds, and you have a recipe for an upset.
• The Royals over the Indians: These two teams beating each other up what I see. They have taken turns winning this series. Bruce Chen has a winning percentage at home over the years over .600 and that is too convincing for me to not pick him over Danny Salazar.
• The Cardinals over the Rockies: Adam Wainwright did not pitch well the last time he was at Coors Field. He lives on the curveball and it will not curve as much in that park at that altitude. But the Cardinals are good enough to win a slugfest and I am still not convinced by Tyler Chatwood.
• The Diamondbacks over the Dodgers: A win here would clinch the division for the Dodgers. But that day will be postponed a day as Brandon McCarthy has a good game and the random sighting of Stephen Fife doesn't work this time.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Giants over the Mets: The Giants have had their way this series and I expect it to continue tonight. Aaron Harang has Citi Field to help him with dinger-control. But the Giants have Matt Cain on the mound and I think that trumps it.

Yesterday: 10-6

Week: 28-14

Month: 131-106

Season: 1273-1001

Games of the Day: 97-67