The fine wine of Adrian Beltre

Adrian Beltre has been perhaps the most unappreciated player in baseball over the past four seasons. They have been four seasons in which he has averaged thirty-one homers and a hundred runs batted in and a .385 wOBA. According to the Fangraphs.com leaderboard, Beltre has been the fifth best position player in the Major Leagues during that time. In fact, if Adrian Beltre were to never play another game, he would be the eighth best third baseman of all time. Six of the seven in front of him are in the Hall of Fame. The seventh, Chipper Jones, will be.

Beltre's consistency has been remarkable. You may--if you think of Beltre at all--think that his success over the last three years would be from hitting in Texas half of the time. And yes, Texas is a great place to hit. But Beltre does not have Nelson Cruz-like splits. His wOBA at home last year was .891 and on the road it was .879. In fairness, the splits were a little more dramatic his first two years in Texas and perhaps facing the Astros helped in 2013.

But look at his wOBA over the last four years. They are, in order from his year in Boston to last year: .391, .381, .388, .379. That is a great four-year spread. Beltre's triple slash line over the four years: .314/.358/.545. Nice.

But of course, Beltre is not just a great hitter. There has also been his defense at third. Beltre is currently ninth on Baseball-reference.com's all time total zone runs for third basemen. Perhaps Beltre is slowing down a bit. His numbers on both Fangraphs.com and Baseball-reference.com went into barely negative territory for 2013 for the first time in his career. And this has been part of a slow decline in his fielding numbers over the last four years.

But regression as a player probably shows up more on the field than anywhere else. He is heading into his age 35 season after all. So how much longer will Beltre be a great player? If history tells us anything, perhaps three more seasons.

I studied the WAR graphs of some of the great third basemen over time. I left off Mike Schmidt because he blows away the curve. But when comparing Beltre to Brooks Robinson, George Brett, Chipper Jones, and Ron Santo, only Santo was done by Beltre's age. The others all had three more productive seasons after Beltre's current age and then leveled off.

Take a look at the WAR graphs of some of these greats:


Source: FanGraphs -- Chipper Jones, Adrian Beltre, George Brett

What I find remarkable about this chart is how similar all those careers were. Not only that, how well Beltre stacks up against all those great third basemen. For his age, he is right there with all of them at similar points in their careers. And, again, only Santo was done by age 34. 

Adrian Beltre has been a terrific player over his entire career. He has done it with the bat and with the glove. His statistics with the bat over the last four years show consistency and have been prolific. When you watch Adrian Beltre play a baseball game, don't just think of him currently as one of the better players in the game. Think of him as one of the best third basemen of all time.

Adrain Beltre - a product of his environment

Adrian Beltre will be heading into his Age 34 season with fifteen years already accumulated in his Major League Baseball career. Since his first (partial) season was at age 19, it seems like Beltre has been around forever. And Beltre has a chance to put up the kind of counting stats that will guarantee him a spot in the Hall of Fame, especially when you combine his fielding stats. But if you look at Beltre's career, his numbers have fluctuated greatly from season to season. Mariners fans have to be looking at what Beltre has done over his last three seasons and wonder what the heck happened. And Beltre had that one big year for the Dodgers and several not so big years there. Park effect has really been a factor in Beltre's career.

Where Beltre currently plays his home games is good news for him when it comes to piling on the rest of his counting stats because it is such a good hitters' park. For example, in his two seasons there, Beltre has a triple slash line at Ameriquest Field of .328/.369/.608. Yes, those numbers are pretty. But Beltre spent the bulk of his career playing his home games in Seattle and Los Angeles. Here are his slash lines in those two parks compared to his career line:

• Dodger Stadium: .253/.316/.423
• Safeco Field: .252/304/.411
• Career Stats: .280/.331/.476

It becomes really obvious that all those games in those two ballparks had a severe impact on Beltre's career. Out of curiosity, I wanted to get rid of the stats in all three of his home ballparks to see if that could gives me some insight of what kind of offensive player Beltre really is. I realize that other stats already do this such as wRC+ and OPS+ for example. But I wanted more organic counting stats to see the difference.

So what I did was to take his career stats and subtracted all the stats from Dodger Stadium, Safeco Field and even Ameriquest since that park has inflated his stats a bit the last two seasons. I did not bother with his one season in Boston. So taking out those three parks, the rest of the stats give him a career triple slash line of .292/.340/.496. This, to me, gives a truer picture of the kind of offensive player that Beltre has been. Sure, I know these are sloppy stats because all the rest of his non-home stats have come in all kinds of different parks and conditions and I am no mathematician. But I do believe that this triple slash line gives a better picture.

If you take the triple slash line of his non-home stats and use those numbers for his whole career, Beltre would have 96 more hits than his 2,227. He would have 51 more doubles than his current 463. He would have fifteen more triples than his career 30. Surprisingly, the home run total works out almost the same and his walk and HBP totals go down. Here is a picture of my spreadsheet. Click on it to make it larger.

Now I realize that Beltre's career will be measured without any of this hoopla. And heck, he is already rated according to JAWS as the twelfth best third baseman ever. And that is only going to rise the longer he plays. Beltre seems destined for the Hall of Fame no matter what his numbers were in LA and Seattle. I just feel that those two parks dragged him down to make that HOF vote a little less than a slam dunk years from now. The odds are good that he will reach 3,000 hits, 450 homers and 1500 runs batted in if he plays five more seasons. 

In other words, the combination of his offense and defense will give him a ticket. They just might have been a little prettier if he hadn't had all those plate appearances in those two unforgiving offensive ballparks.

Adrian Beltre is the Rangers' best player

Not only has Adrian Beltre been the best player for the Texas Rangers this season, he is one of the best players in baseball when it has really mattered--the last two months. His defense is always first rate and ranks him at the head of his position class, but Beltre had a 1.006 OPS in August with a .417 wOBA and has topped that this month with a 1.161 OPS and a .470 wOBA. Holy cow! He now leads his team in WAR. Beltre has been sensational.

Let's face it, the Rangers play in a park that aids a strong offensive team. And sure enough, Beltre has a season OPS of .965 at home with a .406 wOBA. But his season on the road is not shabby at all. He has an .861 OPS on the road with a terrific .360 wOBA. He has done it all. He leads the team in go-ahead hits with 23 (Hamilton has 18).

The Rangers signed Beltre before the 2011 season and what a bargain he has turned out to be. In his two years with the team, he has hit 66 homers and has driven in 200 runs. His OPS in his two year run with the team is .904. All the while, he has brought his usual stellar play to the bag at third base. How could the Red Sox not resign this guy after the 2010 season? Crazy.

There is not much more profound things to say about Adrian Beltre. He now has the eleventh highest WAR total ever for a third baseman and should finish around seven or eight by the time he is done. He is only 33 years old. He already has the ninth highest career total zone runs as a third baseman and is closing fast on the number eight guy. At a time when the Rangers were fading a bit and losing some of their big lead in the division, Adrian Beltre has been there to make sure they did not fall too far. His season has been remarkable and its finish, outstanding.

Since there is not more more profound things to say, let's leave you with a brief highlight reel of his memorable fielding plays of 2012.

And that is just a taste of this year.

Rangers' Infield - Three Beemers and a Dodge

These new Texas Rangers have been an amazing story the past two years. Most baseball fans through the years remember how the Rangers were always a one-dimensional team. They could always pound the ball, but they could never pitch. From 1997 through 2008 (a twelve year stretch), the Rangers gave up an average of 883 runs per game. In seven of those seasons, the pitching staff gave up more runs than the batters plated. Obviously, that's not a winning formula. The last two seasons, the Rangers have allowed only 687 and 677 runs while scoring 787 and 855 runs respectively. That's as good a reason as any for two straight World Series appearances in a row. But as we all should now know, defense plays a key role in preventing runs and few teams do it better than the Rangers. A big part of that defense is the infield, which boasts three Beemers and a Dodge.

Perhaps it is unfair to pick on Dodge. From their television commercials, they are trying hard to change their brand/quality image. The Yugo has all but disappeared, so that analogy is too obscure. But anyway, you get the idea. The Rangers boast three sparkling defenders and then there is first base. Adrian Beltre at third? One of the best ever. Elvis Andrus? The reason Michael Young is a DH. Ian Kinsler? One of the most underrated, all around players in the game. And then there is the first base gaggle of Mitch Moreland, Mike Napoli (when he isn't catching) and Michael Young. The Rangers are one cog away from a beautiful wheel.

Elvis Andrus hasn't developed as expected as a hitter, but his defense more than justifies his existence. It is not mere coincidence that the Rangers started pitching better once he became the shortstop. He was the fifth (or sixth depending on which site you believe) best fielding shortstop in baseball last season. No offense to Michael Young, but once Elvis took over, the difference was night and day.

Ian Kinsler was the third best fielding second baseman in baseball last season. He wasn't rated as highly in 2010, but injuries can explain a lot of that story. But his defense in 2011 was even better than his stellar defensive season of 2009. We can safely state that if Kinsler is healthy, then he's one of the best at his position in baseball.

We all know about Adrian Beltre. The guy is a flat out magician over at third base. Despite ups and downs with his health, Beltre (according to Fangraphs) has been 152.8 runs better than average for his career. If he can continue his pace, he won't catch Brooks Robinson in that category, but he will finish a solid second. He is the best fielding third baseman of his generation.

And then you get to first base. Mitch Moreland got the bulk of the time there. He played first for 99 games and spent another 34 games in right field (due to injuries to Nelson Cruz). Baseball-reference.com gives Moreland a -1 runs lost below average, which isn't terrible. Fangraphs has him at league average for his 99 games at first. Mike Napoli played 35 games at first. B-R has him 2 runs better than average, Fangraphs at -1.5. Michael Young played 36 games at first and B-R gives him -2 runs below average and Fangraphs, -2.1. The obvious statement is that first base fielding at first base does not match the high rent district found elsewhere around the diamond.

Despite endless Google searches, "scoop" data could not be found for an individual seasons like 2011. Tango Tiger and others have done superb studies on such data for a large number of years. Basically, these studies show how many errors are saved by first basemen. But suspicions are at least aroused by the fact that Ian Kinsler made only two throwing errors in all of 2009 and none in 2010 and yet that figure jumped to six in 2011. It's possible that he air-balled all six of those throws and without the data, who knows. But let's call it suspicious.

The bottom line here is that the Rangers are one positional fielder away from having the best infield in baseball. It's a shame that Justin Smoak needed to be traded away to obtain Cliff Lee. Smoak has all the makings of a good fielding first baseman (though his numbers there went south some in 2011). While Prince Fielder may have made the Rangers' line up invincible, he wouldn't have helped in the field. So at least that's a positive. But with Mitch Moreland penciled in as the starting first baseman and Young and Napoli continuing to take their turns over there, the Rangers' infield will continue to contain three Beemers and a Dodge...or a Kia...or..oh you get the idea.

Top Ten Position Players of the Past Ten Years

Putting lists together is sort of like trying to run across the highway. Somebody is bound to run you over for your efforts. But lists are fun even if, in the end, people end up poking holes in your logic. For this little exercise, this writer went to Fangraphs and used their handy and amazing leader board to find the top ten position players for the past ten years (2002 through 2011). The criteria used was fWAR. Again, you can poke holes in that logic. But so what? The amazing thing about the list is that all of the players on it are still playing. Yeah, a few of them are getting ancient now, but they are all still with us. Such long term performance signifies greatness in this writer's book. There are a few obvious players on the list and a few that may surprise you.

So here's the list in descending order with a few comments:

1. Albert Pujols: (80.1 fWAR): Ten of Albert's eleven year career are covered by these stats. And they are amazing. Everything about his ten seasons lead the world. In those seasons, he had the highest wOBA, the highest wRC+, the highest ISO, the highest slugging percentage, the highest batting average, the highest on base percentage. He scored the most runs, drove in the most runs, hit the most homers and struck out fewer than any player that follows him on this list. Incredible. But what about the next ten years?
2. Alex Rodriguez: (67.9 fWAR): This is the Pujols Era and everyone else is chicken fodder. But with all the negative press he's received, A-Rod has been an amazing player. And even with a few years of late that were below his standards (he is getting old), he's been just below Albert in most every category.
3. Carlos Beltran (51.2 fWAR): Surprised? You shouldn't be. Not if you have been a steady reader here in the FanDome. Beltran easily earned (as the Fan proved) his Mets contract with a decade of good defense, good base running and consistently good offensive numbers. He is the best centerfielder of his era.
4. Chase Utley (50.6 fWAR): Utley has the fewest games played over the ten years of all the players on this list. But when he has played, he's been amazing. Great fielding metrics, very good base running and good offensive numbers. He might not be the best second baseman in baseball right now, but over the last decade, he has been.
5. Lance Berkman (49.7 fWAR): Another surprise. Tucked away on the Astros for most of his career, few have really noticed how excellent he has been. It took a comeback year for a higher profile Cardinal team to show how really good Lance Berkman is and has been. Berkman has the second highest on base percentage on our list and third best slugging percentage and wOBA. If it wasn't for his positional adjustment (1B), his less than stellar fielding and his leaden base running, Berkman could easily have been third on our list. Even so, he's been far better than most realize.
6. Ichiro Suzuki (46.9 fWAR): Ichiro along with the next two players on our list built his high fWAR based just as much on defense as he has on offense. He's not a great on-base guy and he has shown no power, his ability to blow past 200 hits every season takes somewhat of a hit because of those facts. But according to Fangraphs, Ichiro has saved 104.6 runs with his defense over the past ten years and has been an above average base runner. This writer would put him in the Hall of Fame already.
7. Adrian Beltre (46.7 fWAR): Seattle Mariner fans might choke a bit on this one. But he was much better for them than people thought. And his overall defense for the past ten years make him the best defensive player on our list with 138+ runs saved at third base. His offense had some off seasons (hence the Seattle hate) but he's averaged 28 homers and 88 runs driven in over the ten year period. Hardly shabby. He's been a great, great player.
8. Scott Rolen (46.3 fWAR): Rolen is the third of four third baseman that will make our list. And he is a surprise of sorts to be here. But he has saved 114.5 runs with his defense and his ten year slash line of: .281/.360/.485 is not chopped liver either. It's a shame that injuries have kept him from building more WAR and being the household name that he should be. He's played the third least amount of games of our list of ten players.
9. Chipper Jones (46.2 fWAR): It's a shame that a lot of baseball fans will only remember the last couple of broken down memories of Chipper Jones. His offense might be the third best of our ten players with a ten year slash line of .302/.404/.521. Defense has chipped away a bit of his value and he hasn't been a great runner on the bases. But he's a first ballot HOF guy in this Fan's book.
10. Derek Jeter (45.6 fWAR): Yes, Jeter has given away 48.9 runs on defense over the ten year period. But he's also averaged 189 hits, 100 runs scored, 70 RBI and 20 stolen bases. His base running over the decade was excellent (though he's stumbled the last two years). His offense put him four wins above replacement above Jimmy Rollins over the same time period.

So that's the Fan's list. The compiler will now commence dodging speeding cars on that highway! Happy Boxing Day everyone!

Warts and All

There is an old expression that you can take someone or something "warts and all." Apparently that's no longer the case. Brian Matusz, the promising pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles, has become the second player (that we know of) that is missing time this spring due to a wart. A while back, Michael Cuddyer of the Twins was said to miss at least two weeks of Spring Training because he had to have a wart removed from his foot. The Fan isn't making light of the problem. It's just odd, isn't it?

Every year we seem to have a fashionable injury. A couple of years ago there was the hip injury that afflicted Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley and Mike Lowell. Last year and heading into this year, we've seen a rash of calf strains. While some of these new maladies become fashionable, others remain fairly consistent and others seem to fall by the wayside.

Thankfully, concussion syndrome is in the news more than every before. Certainly, we aren't thankful that concussion are occurring, only in that they are being reported and treated. In the past, the only time we even heard about concussions in baseball was when a player got seriously beaned. But baseball is getting smarter that this is a dangerous injury and needs to be treated as such.

Another injury that is much more heard about than in the past is the torn meniscus in the knee. Perhaps in the past all knee injuries were lumped together. Now we separate them into torn ACL's and torn meniscus. We started hearing about the ACL tears, which are much more serious than meniscus tears, which are more painful than debilitating. C. C. Sabathia is just one who had an off season operation for such an injury. Juan Castro was just diagnosed with a torn meniscus and will miss a chunk of time now.

Before the year 2000, this writer never heard of a any player getting a calf strain. Perhaps the Fan just wasn't listening. Now we hear them a lot. Adrian Beltre has a calf strain. The hip problem only came up once a decade or so before the trio mentioned earlier in this post. Albert Belle was one. Bo Jackson was another. But can you think of any other player sidelined with a hip problem before those two? The Fan can't.

Of course the Tommy John surgery is in vogue more than ever. The percentage of pitchers that have had the operation must be getting near 10 percent or higher. It's gotten to the point where you feel better about a pitcher who has had the operation than those that haven't. We picture it almost as bionics. While the elbow problem can now be fixed, we don't hear about shoulder bursitis as much as we used to. Shoulder injuries don't seem as previlent as the elbow injury. The most likely reason for that is that in the past, an elbow blowout meant you were done where a shoulder problem at least gave you a fighting chance. Shoulder conditioning is probably much more sophisticated than it used to be. Actually, shoulder tendinitis is much more heard than rotator cuffs and bursitis. Those latter two were heard much more often in the past.

Some of these new injury descriptions are a result of the glut of reporting in our instant media age. In the past, we may have just read that a certain player was hurting and would be out for a while. Now, there are instant reports and even the doctors have news conferences. Twitter gives instant updates on a player's condition and what the team has announced about the injury. But even today a guy like Francisco Cervelli can confound team doctors and have an injury that requires much more study. Or perhaps that's just a smokescreen to get Montero in the line up. Who knows. But we've never had injury reporting like it is now. It is comprehensive, instantaneous and is giving us all an education in anatomy. Yes, even down to the warts and all.

96 Million Clams is a LOT of Clams

Once again Scott Boras worked his magic and got his player a sum nobody thought possible. The Athletics offered $65 million to free agent, Adrian Beltre. He turned it down. The Angels offered $70 million. Beltre turned it down. "He's over played his market," said this great northern Maine sage. Ehhhhhnnnnttttt. Wrong again moron. The Rangers, who were broke a year ago have signed Beltre to a six year deal worth $96 million. That's a lot of money and that's a long time. Granted, it's not as much money as Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford. But it's a lot.

In 2010, Adrian Beltre had a $28 million season. In 2004 he had a $31 million season for the Dodgers. In between, his seasons have come in at: $8.4, $18.1, $12.4, $17.9 and $11.2. Those are hard numbers to get a fix on, no? So yeah, one early projection says he'll be worth $23 million this season. If he is, then the Rangers are good as gold. But what if he comes in at $12.4 again? What is he going to look like in three years?

And one thing the Fan doesn't understand at all is how contracts are constructed for these 30-something players. For example, Beltre starts this year at $14 million and increases about $2 million a year. All the experts agree that ball players are worth less every year as they get into their thirties. Why aren't these contracts front loaded? For example, it's a reasonable risk for Beltre to be worth $20 million this year. So why not start him out at that and then gradually decrease it so that when he is worth less, he'll be getting paid less? Is it some kind of psychological thing where a person feels less appreciated if he makes less money?

If that's the case, shouldn't millions of dollars make those silly feelings go away? The only important figure for the player is the total value of the deal over six years. Who cares how the money is split up as long as it all adds up to $96 million.

But that's the way these things go and that's why these long term deals become albatrosses at the end. And as Derek Jeter's situation proved, once those long term deals are done, a player has a big problem taking a big pay cut that's really cosmetic because the money Jeter made last year was based on his play in 2003. Again, it doesn't matter how the years are structured as long as the bottom (and total) line are the same.

But in any case, the Beltre signing should make the Rangers prohibitive favorites in the AL West (which they were already). The Rangers were all about preventing runs this off season. Keeping Cliff Lee was their number one goal to achieve that goal. But since they lost out on Lee, they will prevent runs a different way by putting together a dream team of a left side of the infield. Beltre and Andrus will be awesome to watch together.

But again, long term? This deal looks scary. The short term gains will make the Rangers' fans pretty darn happy.

Still Quiet on the Adrian Beltre Front

As the only high ceiling free agent left on the market (with all due respect for Mr. Pavano), things have been oddly quiet concerning Adrian Beltre. After making yet another run on all of the big sports sites, there is nary a rumor to be found. You would think that his agent would at least be planting news out there once in a while.

We know that Beltre turned down a four year deal from the Red Sox (or at least that's what we've been told). So perhaps Beltre has misunderstood his market value. Earlier news entries indicated he wanted to play for the Red Sox, but his refusal to sign that deal ended that route for him. That might have been a miscalculation. So now the question is whether or not there are any teams out there that are willing to go anywhere near what the Red Sox were offering.

Of course everyone thinks of the Angels. The Angels lost out on Carl Crawford. Everyone seems to think they need to make a statement signing. Statement signings are fictional creatures. Teams make moves based on what they think will best help their teams win. That's why all this baloney about Brian Cashman in panic mode is so obsurd. Cashman has never been in panic mode. But the Yankees don't need Beltre. They already have their third baseman for another fifty or so years, right?

So where else could he land? There are a couple of things we can assume. The first is that Beltre will not want to sign with any team that has an unfriendly hitting park. He had enough of that in Seattle. Therefore, it is doubtful he would want to go to the Giants or the Padres. Secondly, he would most likely want to go with a team he thought had a chance to win. Beltre already jilted the A's, so you get the opinion that he doesn't think the A's will be competitive.

So where does that leave us?

NL West

Dodgers - Have an aging Casey Blake. But not much money to spend. Plus, that's a tough ballpark for a hitter. Beltre's already played there.
Giants - Pablo has to lose weight, but he's their third baseman.
Padres - All set at the moment at third.
Rockies - They will stick with Ian Stewart because he is young and cheap. If he fails to come on, they have other alternatives.
Diamondbacks - They just signed Melvin Mora, but Mora can go to utility. Imagine Beltre and Drew in the same infield. Slick... But Beltre will probably not want to go to a team in transition.

NL Central

Cubs - The Cubs are stuck with Aramis Ramirez for a gazillion dollars.
Reds - Scott Rolen
Cardinals - Hoping that Freese comes back. Saving all their money for Pujols.
Astros - Good hitters park for a right-handed batter. But they will go with Chris Johnson.
Pirates - Pedro Alvarez

NL East

Mets - David Wright
Phillies - Placido Polanco. But Polanco is best as a utility guy. Great hitters' park. But do the Phillies have any money left?
Braves - Will hold the spot for Chipper Jones.
Nationals - Some guy named Zimmerman plays there.
Marlins - No. Beltre would never sign with the Marlins. Cheap. Bad hitter's ballpark.

AL East

Red Sox - Already out
Yankees - A-Rod
Orioles - They've already signed Mark Reynolds.
Tampa - Doesn't have the money.
Blue Jays - Nice ballpark to hit. But can't picture Beltre going there. They could use him though.

AL Central

White Sox - They would be a good fit. They could certainly use a third baseman.
Indians - No way. No money.
Tigers - They signed Inge. Have no idea what they see in him. But however...
Royals - Beltre wouldn't go there.
Twins - They have a great young kid who will play there for years.

AL West

Athletics - He already turned them down.
Rangers - They have Young
Angels - Great fit.
Mariners - You can't go home again.

As you can see, it's a smaller market than you'd think. That being the case, Beltre's bargaining position can't be perfect. He might end up settling for less than what the Red Sox offered him. Perhaps the quiet is his hoping for a better offer. Perhaps the Fan is all wet and a deal is being hammered out as we speak. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Was Right About Beltre

Life isn't fair. Just ask Crystal Bowersox. When your passion is about baseball and it's what you write about, there are simply times when you are going to look like an idiot or worse. You may have noticed that this space features game picks for each and every day of the season. Talk about unfair! There is no way to come out smelling like a rose on that one. Baseball is simply too unpredictable. So far, this writer has been wrong about David Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, Carlos Silva (still can't believe that story), and a host of others on players who produced when this writer said they were done or didn't produce when this writer said they would (ahem, Mr. Feldman). So occasionally, when an observation was particularly poignant, the only sane thing to do is to take credit for it. For this writer, that dose of sanity is Adrian Beltre.

Beltre, of course was never going to be as good as he was for the Dodgers in 2004. That was an outlier if there ever was one. Some will probably wonder if it wasn't an artificially enhanced outlier. But no matter, the year garnered Beltre a second place in the MVP vote and a huge contract for the Seattle Mariners.

Many will choose to believe that Beltre was a bust for the Mariners. He didn't reach 100 in his first year there in 2005 in OPS+. But he was over league average for the next three years while playing superb defense at third base. Ask the Angels right now if that kind of third baseman was worth the money the Mariners were paying him.

But the perception that Beltre was a bust in Seattle comes from two different places. One, the reality that he was never going to duplicate what he did in 2004. Anything less than what he did that year would be perceived to be a failure. But it was an outlier and that's what outliers are in a nutshell. An outlier is a year that just doesn't match a player's history. It's a year when some kinds of stars align and magic things happen. The second perception comes from the very real fact that 2009 was a disaster for Beltre. For the first time in three years, he didn't hit 25 homers. For the first time since his rookie season in 1998, he didn't even hit ten homers. He finished with a 79 OPS+.

So yeah, if that is what you look at, you paint Mr. Beltre with a gigantic BUST sign hanging around his neck. But Beltre's shoulder was mush last year. He tried to play through it and finally had to have it taken care of.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, saw the writing on the wall concerning Mike Lowell. Lowell had been plagued by hip injuries and other maladies and was no longer able to be counted on physically to play third base regularly. Kevin Youkilis could play over there, but when he did, his body tended to break down too. Plus, he's one of the best fielding first basemen in the league, so why mess with that?

And so the Red Sox signed Beltre. Back when it happened, the Fan hailed it in this space as a brilliant move. Beltre was the perfect gamble who, if he could regain his 100+ OPS+ that he has maintained for most of his career, and if he could be close to the kind of wizard at third that he's always been, would be exactly what the Red Sox needed.

The funny thing was, the gamble took a while to start paying off. Beltre had terrible troubles in the field early and started slowly at the plate. As of April 21, he had a line of: .259/.268/.315. Yuck! He also had a pile of errors. Starting on April 22, though, he had 24 hits in his next 16 games and has steadily produced ever since.

On Wednesday night, in a huge series against the Bay Rays and against one of the toughest pitchers in the American League, Matt Garza, Beltre had a triple and two homers and drove in six of the Red Sox' eleven runs. He now has 33 ribbies to go along with his .341 batting average. His defense is starting to pay dividends too. After a slow start as mentioned above, he is now eighth in the majors in UZR at third base, and there is no reason to believe that he won't start to climb higher as the year progresses.

To recap, Beltre leads all third basemen in batting average and is eighth out of thirty teams on defense at third. That, friends, is a brilliant pick up by the Red Sox and well worth the $9 million they spent on the guy. And it sure feels good for this old writer to get at least one good call to crow about.