MLB Game Picks - Friday: September 26, 2014

What a baseball day! The Giants clinched a wild card berth with the Brewers total collapse official. The Royals had a thrilling comeback win to ensure a tension-packed weekend to either determine the AL Central or the pecking order of the wild card game. And biggest of all, Derek Jeter had the walk-off hit in his last ever appearance in pinstripes.

As for the picks, they started out zero for four. The Brewers had a game that typified their season. They got out to an early lead and Yovani Gallardo was pitching effortlessly. Then he lost it and the game got away. Say goodnight, Brewers. Then I got both ends of the Nationals - Mets double-header wrong. And the Mariners finally beat the Blue Jays. Zero for four. Uh oh.

But I did not get another pick incorrectly for the rest of the day and ended Thursday at 8-4. Nice comeback, kid.

Three days to go. Today's picks:

• The Nationals over the Marlins: Holy cow! The Nationals played two yesterday and will play two again today. It's a good thing they have expanded rosters. I think they will split like yesterday, but I got the order wrong yesterday. Doug Fister should shine in his final tuneup before the post season. He will only go five or six innings, but it should be enough over Jarred Cosart.
• The Marlins over the Nationals: Who knows what will happen this game. Andrew Heaney gets the start for the Marlins. He has the most hype of any prospect in the Marlins' system, but hasn't had much fun in the Majors thus far. He faces Taylor Hill making his first MLB start. Since Hill is a BABIP kind of pitcher, I'm going with Heaney.
• The Phillies over the Braves: What will this off-season hold for the Braves? We already know part of the answer as Wren was fired as the GM. Will we see a complete house cleaning in management and coaching? It will be interesting to watch. In the meantime, the Braves have to play three more games and I imagine they are a dispirited bunch. Jerome Williams has been good for the Phillies and Ervin Santana hasn't won a game in a while.
• The Indians over the Rays: There is a lot going on in this game. If Corey Kluber pitches well, he is my CYA pick. If he doesn't, then I will have to look at it much more closely. But I think he will against the offensively-challenged Rays. Chris Archer gets the Rays' call. What the heck happened to him in the second half?
• The Blue Jays over the Orioles: I can't imagine Chris Tillman pitching very long into this game since Showalter has already said he is the Game One pitcher for him against the Tigers in the ALDS. Drew Hutchison is unpredictable, but when he is good, wow.
• The Tigers over the Twins: The Tigers have to win one more game, perhaps two. Rick Porcello has struggled down the stretch. Anthony Swarzak, however, won't hinder their offense at all.
• The Red Sox over the Yankees: Chris Capuano has been dreadful and a start should go to someone else. Plus, the Yankees should be emotionally drained after yesterday. The only caveat is how well Steven Wright will pitch. He is highly regarded for the Red Sox' system.
• The Pirates over the Reds: Finally! I can pick a visiting team! The Pirates are still alive for the division title and need to win two to have home field in the wild car. All that said, they will be motivated. Vance Worley over Mike Leake.
• The Rangers over the Athletics: It is amazing that the A's found themselves in this position. They are highly fortunate that the Mariners could not sieze the moment. I just feel like the Rangers are rolling and would like nothing better than to knock the A's around to end the season. Nick Tepesch over Scott Kazmir.
• The Cubs over the Brewers: Jimmy Nelson has just been so-so for the Brewers this season. The Cubs have a chance with him. The Cubs will give Eric Jokisch his first MLB start. The young pitcher has excellent control and that is half the battle.
• The Royals over the White Sox: The Royals' only chance for the division is to win out and hope the Tigers fall, which won't happen. But they have to give it a go. It's too bad they have to pitch Jeremy Guthrie to start it off. But if they score on Hector Noesi, they can make it happen.
• The Cardinals over the Diamondbacks: Trevor Cahill should not be much of an obstacle for the Cardinals. Michael Wacha most likely will not figure into the Cards' post season plans, so it would be nice for him to finish the season on a high note.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: The Dodgers don't have much to play for, but have the depth to win anyway, especially at home against the Rockies. Roberto Hernandez over Jordan Lyles.
• The Mariners over the Angels: The M's are totally at the mercy of what Oakland does this weekend. They have to win all three and hope. I don't think Hisashi Iwakuma is healthy. There is something wrong there. But if I am wrong, he will pitch well at home and Jered Weaver is not going to go very deep in this game.
• The Padres over the Giants: The Giants have clinched the wild card and can ease up a bit. I just don't think Ryan Vogelsong has much left to offer the Giants' rotation. Ian Kennedy has had a nice second half to his season.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Mets over the Astros: Jon Niese is very overlooked as a quality MLB starter. He should win his last start of the year working against the Astros. Brad Peacock goes for the Astros.

Yesterday: 8-4, Sept.: 205-139, Games of the Day: 103-65 (+3), Season: 1335-1073

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: June 24, 2014

Vacations make you lose all track of time and place. I suppose that is what they should do. I went a day of not putting the correct date on these posts. So that will tell you something. And perhaps being away has helped the success of the picks because I am more relaxed? The last two days have gone 17-8. But despite yesterday's 7-3, I did pick Tampa Bay as my game of the day. Duh.

We are back to a full schedule of games today. So let's get to the picks:

• The Orioles over the White Sox: The Orioles have gotten hot and are in one of those runs. They have blown by the Yankees and now have the Blue Jays in their sights. While Miguel Gonzalez is not that great, the O's win by doing enough against Jose Quintana.
• The Marlins over the Phillies: It's a battle of rookies in this one with phenom, Andrew Heaney pitching against David Buchanan. Buchanan is coming around and was good his last time out. But I like the lefty Heaney over the lefty-hating Phillies.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Yeah, the Yankees are sinking and David Phelps is no savior. Mark Buehrle should take this one in his home ballpark.
• The Pirates over the Bay Rays: I am torn on this one. Chris Archer can be very good when he is on. And Jeff Locke has made three straight, really good starts, but has nothing to show for it. The Rays don't really struggle more against lefties, but it's tough losing Matt Joyce against them. He is their most patient hitter.
• The Reds over the Cubs: Torn on this one too. Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta has been pitching really, really well. I mean, lights-out well. Homer Bailey has a great career record at Wrigley but is hard to count on. Yeesh. Flip a coin.
• The Rangers over the Tigers: I like the Rangers in this one simply because I don't trust The Emoticon, Drew Smyly. It's not that I trust Colby Lewis that much more. Maybe just picking all those road teams to win in a row freaked me out. Gosh, I'm a mess.
• The Astros over the Braves: I used to root a lot for Scott Feldman. Now he just seems to exist on the periphery of my consciousness. He isn't bad. He isn't good. He just is. Aaron Harang, on the other hand, is someone I have no faith in at all.
•  The Dodgers over the Royals: I will never pick against Clayton Kershaw. There is no good thing that can happen over the long run in picking against the best pitcher in baseball. Of course, the Royals' Danny Duffy is talented enough that for one game he can match zeroes. If it becomes a bullpen game, advantage Royals.
• The Nationals over the Brewers: I'm going to make one of those statements that I know will come back to bite me: Jordan Zimmermann has never lost to the Brewers and (SSS) has been really great at Miller Park. Then again, Yovani Gallardo at home is hard to beat too.
• The Cardinals over the Rockies: This series is all about the Cards' young pitching surviving at Coors Field. Lance Lynn did great yesterday, so I'll go with Shelby Miller today. Jorge De La Rosa has lost a few in a row too.
• The Diamondbacks over the Indians: I cannot figure the Indians out. I do know that they are one of the true teams that do much better at home than on the road. Wade Miley isn't great. Justin Masterson is only occasionally great. Will this be one of those occasions?
• The Angels over the Twins: Kyle Gibson has been very good all year for the Twins. But I like C.J. Wilson's chances at home much better.
• The Red Sox over the Mariners: Erasmo Ramirez has not given up a run in his last three outings. But he has not gotten a decision in his last four. Why? His command isn't good and he doesn't last long enough. The Red Sox are good against that kind of pitcher and wear him into the ground. The only caveat here is that Jake Peavy has been terrible.
• The Giants over the Padres: And we finish with a tough call. Tim Hudson has been very good except for his last outing. Jesse Hahn has not given up a run in thirteen innings in his last two starts. Hmm...  I have to go with Hudson. Chaka Hahn Chaka Hahn.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Athletics over the Mets: Bartolo Colon pitches against his old team (that could be said in nearly half of his outings!) and I think he will pitch well. But Scott Kazmir has been killer and I expect him to win this one. The only one concern for me is that the A's depend on their DH more than most and will lose it here.

Yesterday: 7-3, June: 171-144, Games of the Day: 41-39, Season: 624-525

The tale of two MLB debuts - follow up

I wrote yesterday about two pitchers making their MLB debuts in starts for their respective teams. The topic interested me because I am always rooting for a new guy to make an impression. But the difference between the two situations was so striking as to make it all the more interesting. The two pitchers were a phenom, highly touted prospect and a fighter who rode the buses in the minor leagues for a decade.

So how did they do? Let's start with the career minor-league player. His name is Yohan Pino and he pitched for the Twins. Frankly, he was brilliant. He gave up two runs in seven innings on five hits and one walk. Only one hit was for extra bases--a double. And Pino struck out seven.

When he left, the game was tied, 2-2, and the Twins went on to win the game. He did not get the win, but he allowed his team the time and ability to win it. Nice job!

I was worried that Pino would never get the start as heavy rain delayed the game for quite a long time.

Here is a link to the video of his outing.

The phenom, former Number One pick (9th overall), Andrew Heaney also pitched brilliantly. He faced the Mets, a weak-hitting team in a big home ballpark in Miami, which had to have helped. But even so, he gave up only one run in six innings pitched. He walked one and allowed four hits to go along with four strikeouts.

Unfortunately, one of those four hits was a first-inning homer to David Wright. Also unfortunate is that Zack Wheeler of the Mets had his best Major League outing of his career and blanked the Marlins on three-hits and pitched a shutout. So that one run allowed gave Heaney the loss.

But if Heaney pitches like that, he will win his share of games. Here is video of Heaney's first MLB strikeout.

All in all, it was a very satisfying night of debuts for two pitchers coming to the big leagues from opposite ends of the spectrum. Neither got the win they deserved, but both did themselves proud.

A tale of two MLB debuts - Andrew Heaney and Yohan Pino

Two pitchers will make their first Major League starts tonight--Yohan Pino for the Twins and Andrew Heaney for the Marlins. Their two paths to this point could not have been more different. Heaney was a Number One draft pick, but he's only pitched three seasons in the minors (this year being his third). Yohan Pino is not 23 like Heaney. Pino is 30-years-old and has been beating the bushes in the minors for ten long seasons. Like I said, you could not have had two different paths to this same point on the same day.

Let's start with Andrew Heaney. He was drafted in the 24th round of the 2009 draft by the Tampa Bay Rays right out of high school. But Heaney did not sign and instead went to Oklahoma State University. It turned out to be a good move because after his years in Stillwater, he was drafted in the first round of 2012, the ninth overall selection. The decision to go to college made him a few million dollars in salary.

And he has earned the draft selection. He struggled a little in his rookie league campaign despite great peripherals but the Marlins kept moving him up anyway and starting with the 2013 season, has had nothing but success along the way.

After 38 minor league games, Heaney is 17-7 overall with a 2.31 ERA, a 1.126 WHIP, 9.0 strikeouts per nine and only two walks per nine. He has given up only seven homers and sports a nifty 0.3 homers per nine mark. In other words, he is everything a young phenom should be and worthy of his status as one of the best prospects in baseball.

Heaney made Triple-A look easy to start this season despite being 3.9 years younger than the average age of his peers. His strikeout per walk ratio at New Orleans was an amazing 13.9. It seems natural for a young guy such as Heaney to make this next natural progression for a young team like the Marlins.

Nothing could be further from the truth for Yohan Pino. Pino was a free agent signing of the Twins out of Venezuela way back in 2005. He went 9-2 for the Elizebethton Twins in the Appalachian League in his first season in 2005. Teammates of his that season, Brian Duensing, Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey have made hundreds of Big League appearances. But not Pino.

Pino went 14-2 in the next season for the Single-A Beloit Snappers, again with great peripherals. One of his teammates on that team was an 18-year-old Chris Parmalee. But Pino stalled the following season in Double-A.

Pino pitched for parts of three seasons for the Double-A New Britain Rock Cats. During the 2009 season, Pino started with the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings but he was traded to the Indians' organization and was assigned to Columbus.  After finishing with the Clippers in 2009, he pitched the entire season there in 2010 and his numbers slipped. After a bad start for Columbus in 2011, he was traded to Toronto and really struggled for that organization as he bounced between Las Vegas in the PCL and New Hampshire in the Eastern League through the 2012 season. His career seemed stalled.

Pino, then 29, signed with the Reds' organization and split the 2013 season between that team's Double and Triple-A teams with decent peripherals but mundane win-loss totals.

He re-signed with the Twins, his first organization, to start the 2014 season. Coming full circle to the Rochester Red Wings and now three years older than the average Triple-A opponent, Pino was 9-1 this year for the Red Wings with a 1.92 ERA and a 0.934 WHIP.

But Pino only started seven of his fourteen appearances this year for the Red Wings. The Twins must have liked what they saw enough to give him a shot...finally...in the Big Leagues.

Pino has thrown 1,093.2 innings in the minor leagues. He has a .597 winning percentage, a 1.198 career WHIP to go with a 8.2/2.2 strikeout to walk ratio. His 3.74 career ERA was somewhat inflated by pitching for the Blue Jays' organization. But the guy has certainly been good enough to have gotten a shot somewhere along the line. But he hasn't.

Until now. So, yes, Yohan Pino's debut could not be more different than Andrew Heaney's. The younger pitcher is making the next natural transition. The elder is finally getting a shot after paying long dues and riding way too many buses.

I will be rooting for them both because I am a sucker for both kinds of debuts. But I confess that I will really be pulling for Pino. After all, after all those years, the guy is finally getting a payoff for his efforts.

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: June 19, 2014

The West Coast was certainly an interesting place last night. Clayton Kershaw (the best pitcher on the planet) threw a no-hitter while striking out 15 (had the pick). The Padres won a rare game (Game of the Day pick wrong) but did so on a night when they honored Tony Gwynn (so I was glad I was wrong). From what I heard, the Padres really did a nice ceremony to honor their city's favorite son.

I cannot believe how often: 1) David Ortiz comes up in the bottom of the ninth in a close game and, 2) he does something spectacular. I really don't like the guy because of his demand that the focus be on him, but, gosh, you have to respect his ability to make the difference every time.

Thursday's picks:

• The Angels over the Indians: This is the same pitching line as last night when the game was postponed. I am surprised the two teams are not playing two. After all, how many times with the Angels visit Cleveland? C.J. Wilson over Justin Masterson. Or maybe this is the make-up game after all on what was supposed to be an off day?
• The Reds over the Pirates: I do not see Jeff Locke shutting down the Reds. So it all depends on which Homer Bailey shows up. Since he is 7-3, I would be fairly safe in saying that the good one has shown up more often than not.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Streaks seem to end after ten games this season. So I am predicting the Royals' win streak gets snapped at ten. Besides, Anibal Sanchez is usually more reliable than Danny Duffy.
• The Diamondbacks over the Brewers: Yovani Gallardo would be the pick if he was at home. But on the road and in Arizona, I can't feel that confident. Chase Anderson has been good for the Diamondbacks.
• The Padres over the Mariners: Jesse Hahn was very good in his second MLB start and the Padres won with emotion last night. Erasmo Ramirez has not given up a run in his last two outings, but his peripherals during the two games were not pretty and he did not go deep into the games.
• The Nationals over the Braves: Jordan Zimmermann has been outstanding in the last month even though his team never scores enough runs for him. The Braves are really floundering these days and Gavin Floyd is not a very good rotation answer.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Much has been made of the Blue Jays' losing streak at Yankee Stadium. Isn't it at ten games now? Maybe. If so, what did I say about ten game streaks? Either way, David Phelps is not good enough to hold down the Blue Jays' lineup and if Drew Hutchison is on, he's very good.
• The Rays over the Astros: I hate picking against Collin McHugh because I like him a lot. Chris Archer needs to pretend that the other team is the Yankees because he always beats them. Archer just hasn't been good for a while and he is better than that.
• The Marlins over the Mets: Andrew Heaney is a very good prospect for the Marlins who is making his first MLB start tonight. He is a lefty with great control and has won often and efficiently in the minors. In other words, he is the opposite of Zack Wheeler.
• The Twins over the White Sox: I have to admit to letting my emotions get in the way here. Yohan Pino is thirty-years-old and has been toiling in the minors for ten years. And after having a fabulous season in the International League, he is finally getting a shot in the Majors. You have to root for a guy like that if you are a human being. Jose Quintana will probably win it though.
• The Cardinals over the Phillies: This is a tough one. The Phillies have been on a roll and face Shelby Miller, who was great his last time out. David Buchanan has made six big league starts but only one has been bad and has shown good control. I don't know. The Cardinals should be so much better than they play.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Athletics over the Red Sox: Yes, the Red Sox won in dramatic fashion last night. But then they flew all the way to Oakland to begin this series and face Scott Kazmir who has been terrific. Jake Peavy hardly ever wins these days. The A's are the better team, but the Red Sox do have this way...

Yesterday: 9-5, June: 137-111, Games of the Day: 38-37, Season: 590-492