MLB Game Picks - Thursday: July 10, 2014

My second day back in Maine turned once again into a negative day. I'm starting to get a complex about being back in my state. Hmm. And the negative day included both extra-inning games falling my way.

What did not help were two games that were blown by bullpens in the ninth inning. They included the White Sox ralphing the eighth and finally the ninth on the Red Sox. They were up, 5-1, going into the eighth. And then the Tampa Bay Rays had a nice lead going into the ninth against the Royals only to cough up a three-run homer to Salvatore Perez in the ninth to lose it.

Thursday's picks:

• The Reds over the Cubs: I don't believe this will be an easy win for the Reds, who lost Brandon Phillips yesterday to injury. Homer Bailey should pitch well, but the Reds will face Kyle Kendricks making his Major League debut. Kendricks is not big on folks' prospect lists, but he has good numbers in the PCL, a tough league and he has excellent control. More of a tough call than you would think.
• The Brewers over the Phillies: I've been wrong picking the Phillies for two games in a row, but I'm nothing if not stubborn. I simply think Matt Garza will be better than David Buchanan.
• The Giants over the Athletics: This one is very interesting. Scott Kazmir has been terrific for the A's. But the Giants actually hit lefties better than the other way around, which is unusual. And Tim Hudson is not going to walk into Oakland's trap of working up his pitch count.
• The White Sox over the Red Sox: This one could go either way. Jose Quintana and Jon Lester are among the best lefty starters in the game. It depends who bends the most and which one gets support. And of course, it depends on if the White Sox can close out a game.
• The Yankees over the Indians: It's not that I have uber-confidence in David Phelps. I don't. But I have even less in T.J. House. Both bullpens will be gassed. Phelps could get deeper in the game to save his. The Yankees showed resilience last night after the news about Tanaka.
• The Nationals over the Orioles: Two more lefties on a night that seems full of them. Gio Gonzalez has been terrific and so has Wei-Yin Chen. So how do you pick? The Orioles have a similar OPS against pitchers from either arm side. But the Nationals are significantly better against southpaws. So that's the pick.
• The Braves over the Mets: Bartolo Colon doesn't mess around and is around the plate. The Braves have no patience, so that suits them just fine. Aaron Harang has kept winning despite my ridicule, so there's that.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: The Cardinals are making their move. I can feel it. After dallying all season, they are putting it together. Of course, Shelby Miller hasn't been great though. But then again, neither is Edinson Volquez. Sweep time?
• The Angels over the Rangers: The Rangers are only a game ahead of the Astros in the AL West. Let that sink in a second and were just swept by those Astros. The Angels, on the other hand, are as good as I thought they would be this year. The one caveat here is that Hector Santiago is pitching for the Angels. Ugh. But the Angels will hit Colby Lewis. So it will be an 8-6 win or something.
• The Tigers over the Royals: The Emoticon, Drew Smyly, has not been very good this season. But one of his best starts was against the Royals. Jeremy Guthrie has had two bad outings in a row, but one of his best starts of the year was against the Tigers. Heh. Pick 'em.
• The Twins over the Mariners: Wait. Tom Wilhelmsen is starting for the Mariners!? Wasn't he their closer? Has he ever gone more than a couple of innings? I am still rooting for Yohan Pino to get his first MLB win.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Padres: Yeah, I know this Odrisamer Despaigne is good, but Yasiel Puig will know all about him, which helps. AND Clayton Kershaw is going for the Dodgers. That is killer and I can't wait to see what he does this time.

Yesterday: 7-8, July: 73-56, Games of the Day: 51-44, Season: 756-631

The tale of two MLB debuts - follow up

I wrote yesterday about two pitchers making their MLB debuts in starts for their respective teams. The topic interested me because I am always rooting for a new guy to make an impression. But the difference between the two situations was so striking as to make it all the more interesting. The two pitchers were a phenom, highly touted prospect and a fighter who rode the buses in the minor leagues for a decade.

So how did they do? Let's start with the career minor-league player. His name is Yohan Pino and he pitched for the Twins. Frankly, he was brilliant. He gave up two runs in seven innings on five hits and one walk. Only one hit was for extra bases--a double. And Pino struck out seven.

When he left, the game was tied, 2-2, and the Twins went on to win the game. He did not get the win, but he allowed his team the time and ability to win it. Nice job!

I was worried that Pino would never get the start as heavy rain delayed the game for quite a long time.

Here is a link to the video of his outing.

The phenom, former Number One pick (9th overall), Andrew Heaney also pitched brilliantly. He faced the Mets, a weak-hitting team in a big home ballpark in Miami, which had to have helped. But even so, he gave up only one run in six innings pitched. He walked one and allowed four hits to go along with four strikeouts.

Unfortunately, one of those four hits was a first-inning homer to David Wright. Also unfortunate is that Zack Wheeler of the Mets had his best Major League outing of his career and blanked the Marlins on three-hits and pitched a shutout. So that one run allowed gave Heaney the loss.

But if Heaney pitches like that, he will win his share of games. Here is video of Heaney's first MLB strikeout.

All in all, it was a very satisfying night of debuts for two pitchers coming to the big leagues from opposite ends of the spectrum. Neither got the win they deserved, but both did themselves proud.

A tale of two MLB debuts - Andrew Heaney and Yohan Pino

Two pitchers will make their first Major League starts tonight--Yohan Pino for the Twins and Andrew Heaney for the Marlins. Their two paths to this point could not have been more different. Heaney was a Number One draft pick, but he's only pitched three seasons in the minors (this year being his third). Yohan Pino is not 23 like Heaney. Pino is 30-years-old and has been beating the bushes in the minors for ten long seasons. Like I said, you could not have had two different paths to this same point on the same day.

Let's start with Andrew Heaney. He was drafted in the 24th round of the 2009 draft by the Tampa Bay Rays right out of high school. But Heaney did not sign and instead went to Oklahoma State University. It turned out to be a good move because after his years in Stillwater, he was drafted in the first round of 2012, the ninth overall selection. The decision to go to college made him a few million dollars in salary.

And he has earned the draft selection. He struggled a little in his rookie league campaign despite great peripherals but the Marlins kept moving him up anyway and starting with the 2013 season, has had nothing but success along the way.

After 38 minor league games, Heaney is 17-7 overall with a 2.31 ERA, a 1.126 WHIP, 9.0 strikeouts per nine and only two walks per nine. He has given up only seven homers and sports a nifty 0.3 homers per nine mark. In other words, he is everything a young phenom should be and worthy of his status as one of the best prospects in baseball.

Heaney made Triple-A look easy to start this season despite being 3.9 years younger than the average age of his peers. His strikeout per walk ratio at New Orleans was an amazing 13.9. It seems natural for a young guy such as Heaney to make this next natural progression for a young team like the Marlins.

Nothing could be further from the truth for Yohan Pino. Pino was a free agent signing of the Twins out of Venezuela way back in 2005. He went 9-2 for the Elizebethton Twins in the Appalachian League in his first season in 2005. Teammates of his that season, Brian Duensing, Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey have made hundreds of Big League appearances. But not Pino.

Pino went 14-2 in the next season for the Single-A Beloit Snappers, again with great peripherals. One of his teammates on that team was an 18-year-old Chris Parmalee. But Pino stalled the following season in Double-A.

Pino pitched for parts of three seasons for the Double-A New Britain Rock Cats. During the 2009 season, Pino started with the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings but he was traded to the Indians' organization and was assigned to Columbus.  After finishing with the Clippers in 2009, he pitched the entire season there in 2010 and his numbers slipped. After a bad start for Columbus in 2011, he was traded to Toronto and really struggled for that organization as he bounced between Las Vegas in the PCL and New Hampshire in the Eastern League through the 2012 season. His career seemed stalled.

Pino, then 29, signed with the Reds' organization and split the 2013 season between that team's Double and Triple-A teams with decent peripherals but mundane win-loss totals.

He re-signed with the Twins, his first organization, to start the 2014 season. Coming full circle to the Rochester Red Wings and now three years older than the average Triple-A opponent, Pino was 9-1 this year for the Red Wings with a 1.92 ERA and a 0.934 WHIP.

But Pino only started seven of his fourteen appearances this year for the Red Wings. The Twins must have liked what they saw enough to give him a shot...finally...in the Big Leagues.

Pino has thrown 1,093.2 innings in the minor leagues. He has a .597 winning percentage, a 1.198 career WHIP to go with a 8.2/2.2 strikeout to walk ratio. His 3.74 career ERA was somewhat inflated by pitching for the Blue Jays' organization. But the guy has certainly been good enough to have gotten a shot somewhere along the line. But he hasn't.

Until now. So, yes, Yohan Pino's debut could not be more different than Andrew Heaney's. The younger pitcher is making the next natural transition. The elder is finally getting a shot after paying long dues and riding way too many buses.

I will be rooting for them both because I am a sucker for both kinds of debuts. But I confess that I will really be pulling for Pino. After all, after all those years, the guy is finally getting a payoff for his efforts.

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: June 19, 2014

The West Coast was certainly an interesting place last night. Clayton Kershaw (the best pitcher on the planet) threw a no-hitter while striking out 15 (had the pick). The Padres won a rare game (Game of the Day pick wrong) but did so on a night when they honored Tony Gwynn (so I was glad I was wrong). From what I heard, the Padres really did a nice ceremony to honor their city's favorite son.

I cannot believe how often: 1) David Ortiz comes up in the bottom of the ninth in a close game and, 2) he does something spectacular. I really don't like the guy because of his demand that the focus be on him, but, gosh, you have to respect his ability to make the difference every time.

Thursday's picks:

• The Angels over the Indians: This is the same pitching line as last night when the game was postponed. I am surprised the two teams are not playing two. After all, how many times with the Angels visit Cleveland? C.J. Wilson over Justin Masterson. Or maybe this is the make-up game after all on what was supposed to be an off day?
• The Reds over the Pirates: I do not see Jeff Locke shutting down the Reds. So it all depends on which Homer Bailey shows up. Since he is 7-3, I would be fairly safe in saying that the good one has shown up more often than not.
• The Tigers over the Royals: Streaks seem to end after ten games this season. So I am predicting the Royals' win streak gets snapped at ten. Besides, Anibal Sanchez is usually more reliable than Danny Duffy.
• The Diamondbacks over the Brewers: Yovani Gallardo would be the pick if he was at home. But on the road and in Arizona, I can't feel that confident. Chase Anderson has been good for the Diamondbacks.
• The Padres over the Mariners: Jesse Hahn was very good in his second MLB start and the Padres won with emotion last night. Erasmo Ramirez has not given up a run in his last two outings, but his peripherals during the two games were not pretty and he did not go deep into the games.
• The Nationals over the Braves: Jordan Zimmermann has been outstanding in the last month even though his team never scores enough runs for him. The Braves are really floundering these days and Gavin Floyd is not a very good rotation answer.
• The Blue Jays over the Yankees: Much has been made of the Blue Jays' losing streak at Yankee Stadium. Isn't it at ten games now? Maybe. If so, what did I say about ten game streaks? Either way, David Phelps is not good enough to hold down the Blue Jays' lineup and if Drew Hutchison is on, he's very good.
• The Rays over the Astros: I hate picking against Collin McHugh because I like him a lot. Chris Archer needs to pretend that the other team is the Yankees because he always beats them. Archer just hasn't been good for a while and he is better than that.
• The Marlins over the Mets: Andrew Heaney is a very good prospect for the Marlins who is making his first MLB start tonight. He is a lefty with great control and has won often and efficiently in the minors. In other words, he is the opposite of Zack Wheeler.
• The Twins over the White Sox: I have to admit to letting my emotions get in the way here. Yohan Pino is thirty-years-old and has been toiling in the minors for ten years. And after having a fabulous season in the International League, he is finally getting a shot in the Majors. You have to root for a guy like that if you are a human being. Jose Quintana will probably win it though.
• The Cardinals over the Phillies: This is a tough one. The Phillies have been on a roll and face Shelby Miller, who was great his last time out. David Buchanan has made six big league starts but only one has been bad and has shown good control. I don't know. The Cardinals should be so much better than they play.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Athletics over the Red Sox: Yes, the Red Sox won in dramatic fashion last night. But then they flew all the way to Oakland to begin this series and face Scott Kazmir who has been terrific. Jake Peavy hardly ever wins these days. The A's are the better team, but the Red Sox do have this way...

Yesterday: 9-5, June: 137-111, Games of the Day: 38-37, Season: 590-492