MLB Game Picks - Sunday: April 19, 2015

I had a second very good day in a row. I am feeling much better about myself, but still a far way from even a .500 record. One of the few I got wrong was saying that I really wanted to pick Dallas Keuchel and then not doing so. Listen to your first instincts!

Sunday's picks:

• The Blue Jays over the Braves: This is a very tough call. Shelby Miller has looked great. But so has Daniel Norris. Shelby Miller has more experience having been to the post season. But the Blue Jays have an explosive offense. When in doubt, go with the home team.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: I'm expecting Shane Greene to have his bubble popped sooner or later. But perhaps not today. The Tigers got whomped last night. Today will be different. Jose Quintana could be a tough customer though.
• The Mets over the Marlins: It's Matt Harvey day and that has become must-see baseball. Tom Koehler has been doing just fine himself, but he is no Harvey. Taking Harvey at home as it seems a no-brainer.
• The Yankees over the Bay Rays: I like thinking about Michael Pineda in the heat where he can be loose and himself. That could be spectacular. I know little about Matt Andriese, who goes for the Rays.
• The Red Sox over the Orioles: Miguel Gonzalez won't pitch like he did against the Yankees. The Yankees make him look like Cy Young. And I think Rick Porcello will keep the Orioles in check.
• The Nationals over the Phillies: Here we go with Stephen Strasburg again. Between him and Harang, from yesterday, the two dog my days and give me bad dreams. But good golly, Strasburg should be better than David Buchanan.
• The Indians over the Twins: Ugh. Two pitchers I have no faith in with Trevor May going for the Twins and T.J. House going for the Indians. Both but a bad taste in my picks. One of the teams has to win...
• The Angels over the Astros: First, I have little faith in Scott Feldman. Secondly, it is the 2015 debut for Garrett Richards and all I can say to that is, weeeeee!
• The Royals over the Athletics: This is a really tough one. I really like Scott Kazmir and I really like Danny Duffy. I am going with the Royals because they are at home and can win in a variety of ways.
• The Cubs over the Padres: Here are two clubs who thought they were significantly better this season and neither has been. Will either of them live up to the expectation? Jon Lester over Andrew Cashner.
• The Giants over the Diamondbacks: I'm looking good in my thought that the D-backs made a mistake in acquiring Jeremy Hellickson.  Then again, I never know how good Tim Hudson is going to be these days.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Eddie Rogers has gotten away--thus far--with walking ten batters in eleven innings. That will burn him sooner or later, especially since he isn't a big strikeout guy. Brandon McCarthy has become a wicked tough pitcher again.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: James Paxton needs to tighten it up a little bit but he can be really good. Ross Detwiler gave up five runs in his last outing and his ERA went down. Heh. I think the M's will romp.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: The Cards have had their way this series and finish it off with Adam Wainwright. So it's nice how that worked out. Mike Leake just sort of exists out of the corner of the mind, doesn't he?

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Pirates over the Brewers: I'm pretty convinced that the Brewers are going to have a really bad season. Gerrit Cole should have his way with their offense and Matt Garza will yield a couple of runs.

Yesterday: 10-5, Season: 83-88, Picks of the Day: 5-8

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday, October 29, 2014

How wrong could I have been? Hey, I was only off by ten runs. No biggie. The Royals truly surprised me. It wasn't a surprise that Jake Peavy struggled or that the Giants would be in big trouble if they had to go to long relief. I am surprised by Yordano Ventura who ended up being every bit as good in this series as Madison Bumgarner. And so we are headed to Game Seven. Everyone's dream scenario is a full series.

My prediction for the series is already toast. My chance of getting even in the post season is gone. After all, this is the last game of the MLB season for 2014. There won't be another one and there won't be a game pick after this one. But perhaps I can make it a good one at least and end with a correct pick. That would be nice.

The pick:

• The Royals over the Giants: The home field advantage is going to make a difference after all. The Giants can't water down the infield. The Royals can make theirs rock hard. With Tim Hudson and Jeremy Guthrie on the mound, relief pitching will make a big difference. The Royals will have that advantage. The home fans will be rocking unless the Giants score often and early to quiet the crowd. That could happen. This entire series, I had thought that the script had been written with the Giants destined to complete their every-other-year trifecta. But this script has a surprise ending. What you expect does not happen. The Cinderella really will live happily ever after.

Yesterday: 0-1, Post Season: 14-17, Season: 1379-1107

MLB Game Picks - Friday: October 24, 2014

The World Series resumes tonight in San Francisco with the Giants and Royals each winning a game in Kansas City. I laugh when I see news outlets calling tonight's game a "Pivotal Game." Well, of course! The teams are tied and one team is going to go one up. That would be the definition of pivotal, would it not? We all need our headlines.

And tonight's pitching line is very interesting. Either pitcher could be brutal, or he could be brilliant. It's all a matter of how much they are able to throw the ball where they want to throw it. The go-go Royals can play gap ball and run like crazy. But the Giants can mash. It will be interesting.

Here is the pick:

• The Giants over the Royals: Tim Hudson has not won a post season game since 2001. He has had one great start this post season and one not so great. He has not walked a batter and I don't suppose he will walk the free-swinging Royals. It is the ability to limit walks that I like him over Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie is a true contact pitcher who relies on the good defense to keep his BABIP against down. He has the perfect team behind him to accomplish that for him. Hudson has gone deeper into his post season games which he needs to do tonight. The Giants don't need another bullpen fiasco. Guthrie will not go deep into the game. But the Royals' bullpen is lock down. The Giants must go ahead early and stay there. If they don't, they lose. Like I said, this is going to be very interesting. The Royals will miss having the DH.

Last time out: 1-0, Post Season: 13-14, Season: 1328-1104

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: October 14, 2014

Yesterday was a washout for Major League Baseball as the one playoff game had to be cancelled due to weather. That means we get two games today. The NLCS will start at four o'clock and the ALCS at eight. Despite being rained out, the Royals and Orioles will still feature the same pitching match-up as scheduled yesterday. While in the NLCS, the Cardinals must make do without their fiery leader, Yadier Molina. Come on down, A.J. Pierzynski.

The picks:

• The Cardinals over the Giants: Despite the absence of Molina, I still think the Cardinals win this game IF John Lackey comes up big. Tim Hudson goes for the Giants and he was brilliant in his one 2014 post season start thus far. But that comes after a sub par season and it is hard to know which one will show up tonight. The same could be said for Lackey. When Lackey is on, he is wicked. If he is not, balls fly all over the ballpark. It will be interesting.

• The Orioles over the Royals: I'm still going with the same picks as yesterday since the pitching line is supposed to remain the same. I understand why the Royals would pitch Jeremy Guthrie as he deserves the start. He has been with the Royals for two and a half years and always battles hard for them. But on the other hand, the Orioles know him as he pitched for them not long ago and Guthrie is a homer waiting to happen. Wei-Yin Chen is the wild card in all this. Left-handed pitching does not bother the Royals very much. A key match-up for Chen will be Billy Butler who absolutely rakes lefty pitching.

Post Season: 8-12, Season: 1373-1102

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: October 4, 2014

My post season picking is only going slightly better than Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton's post season hitting. I mean, holy cow already. Clayton Kershaw with a 6-1 lead looked pretty darned good for that pick to hold up, right? What!? And who would ever thought that Jake Peavy...the same Jake Peavy that was practically run out of Boston, would pitch in the playoffs and allow only two hits?

The one thing you cannot say is that this post season baseball has been boring. In a year dominated by pitching, the offensive fireworks have been spectacular. The only problem for many fans right now is a real tiredness with it looking like another Cardinals - Giants NLCS. To most fans, that would be a tired rehash of the two same teams that have dominated the last five years.

But how much different would an Orioles - Royals ALCS be? That would be something. We won't find out for another day how that is going to go because the ALDS has the day off today. It's all NLDS. But don't think we get any day baseball. Heck no. The East Coast will be up all night again if they want to watch the games. Thanks, MLB, your money-grubbing ways know no bounds.

Today's picks:

• The Nationals over the Giants: Looking at the pitching match-ups, you would have to go with the Nationals here. Tim Hudson has looked over the hill for two months now. And Jordan Zimmermann has been filthy the past two months ending the season with a no-hitter. That last fact scares me a bit. Pitchers never seem to pitch well after a no-hitter. Have you noticed that? And this is the Giants after all, who never, ever seem to lose a post season game. Egads! I am freaking myself out.

• The Cardinals over the Dodgers: You just have to go with the Cardinals now. If Kershaw is no obstacle, what is? Lance Lynn has had a terrific season and can bully hitters. And Zack Greinke is not as great as Kershaw. Don't get me wrong, Greinke is very good, but still.  The Dodgers sure seem to have a lot of loose cannons and bad chemo. It's just an odd team. The real wild card in this game (that isn't a wild card game) is that these two managers, Mike Matheny and Don Mattingly, might be the worst in-game strategists in baseball.

Yesterday: 1-3, Post season: 2-6, Season: 1367-1096

MLB Game Picks - Monday: September 1, 2014

The last day of August was not looking very good after five games. With losses by the Yankees, the Phillies and the Rays, the picks were sitting at 1-4. But then I ran the table and finished at 10-4. To be honest, if the game had been allowed to finish (suspended), I would have been wrong to finish at 10-5, but we won't know the final outcome until September 22 when the game is completed. That's what you get putting on a night game on a Sunday, a holiday weekend Sunday to boot.

I don't think I've ever had a day when the picks went from 1-4 to 10-4. That's strange. My final record for August was a little over 56% which is close to my usual. It's funny that after all the years I've been doing this, I don't really improve. I am not an odds maker and do not do computer analysis to make these picks. Why do I do this every day anyway? I really have no idea anymore. It's like an obsession or something. Or it's like riding a horse I am used to and it's just easy to ride the same one every day.

Happy Labor Day! There are twelve games on the schedule and two of them are at night. Shame on them for having night games on a holiday or no games at all!  Today's picks:

• The Rays over the Red Sox: This series has gone back and forth, so who knows. I can't remember the last time Rubby De La Rosa pitched a good game. And The Emoticon, Drew Smyly, has pitched very well for the Rays.
• The Marlins over the Mets: This is a very tough call. Zack Wheeler has been great since the third month of the season. But Henderson Alvarez at home is pretty unbeatable. I'll go with Miami.
• The Braves over the Phillies: I hate to pick against Cole Hamels, but again, the home team is a better pick with Julio Teheran overpowering the older Phillies batters.
• The Orioles over the Twins: Phil Hughes has had a great season. There is no disputing the fact. But I do not like his match-up against the Orioles and feel like he will give up two or three homers. He won't walk anyone. Kevin Gausman has been terrific too and that makes the Twins' task harder.
• The Cardinals over the Pirates: Man, all the home team picks. Scary. Despite all the hyperventilating by Cardinal fans and sportswriters, here the Cards are tied for the division lead. Lance Lynn has been mostly really good and Gerrit Cole is to be feared as well.
• The Brewers over the Cubs: Yay! A road team pick! Jacob Turner is a work in progress for the Cubs and I believe they will be ultimately successful on putting him back on the right road. But for now, he remains awful messy. Jimmy Nelson hasn't won in his last four starts, so that makes the pick more difficult.
• The Tigers over the Indians: This is a really tough call. David Price only won one of his five starts for the Tigers in August. But his peripherals are still outstanding with them. A little bad luck has been involved. Corey Kluber has been so good all season, but his control has been more of a problem his last three starts. This could go either way.
• The Athletics over the Mariners: I don't know if the A's manager calling his team pathetic will help, but anyway, Jason Hammel over Chris Young.
• The Padres over the Diamondbacks: I like Tyson Ross and his season has been a lot better than his .500 record. He should beat the D-backs who feature Trevor Cahill on the mound today.
• The Giants over the Rockies: MLB.com does not have the pitching match-ups and just lists TBO. Yahoo.com is reporting that it will be Tim Hudson versus Franklin Morales. Morales has pitched well, but never more than five innings. Hudson has struggled a bit on the road and even more so in day games. But the Giants are very hot right now.
• The Nationals over the Dodgers: I did take a quick peek at the odds on this one and the odds makers are favoring the Dodgers big time. But I don't agree, which is why I guess I'm not famous. Gio Gonzalez presents problems for the Dodgers' lineup and the Nats bats can get to Roberto Hernandez.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Royals over the Rangers: The Royals had a tough weekend against Cleveland but now face an easier team, at least on paper. I can't make fun of Colby Lewis anymore because he has pitched well. The pick rests completely on what kind of game Yordano Ventura has.

Yesterday: 10-4, August final: 237-185, Games of the Day: 84-59 (+1), Season: 1130-934

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: August 27, 2014

My home network decided not to work this morning so I am late and flustered. Not to mention the fact that I cannot seem to get over the .500 hump lately. I suppose I should look at the bigger picture in that at one point I was 3-8 and finished at 7-8. But still. Come on now. The A's are really struggling. The Reds are awful. The Cubs and Padres keep making noise. And, of course, both extra-inning games went against me. What else is new.

I need to turn this around! Wednesday's picks:

• The Cardinals over the Pirates: I haven't been helped by picking Adam Wainwright lately. At the same time, it feels so dangerous to pick against him. Jeff Locke could give the Cards problems. But if Wainwright is Wainwright, the Cards win.
• The Mariners over the Rangers: I figured this pick should be easy until I saw that Erasmo Ramirez was pitching for the Mariners. Oh. Okay. Hmm. Oh what the heck, Colby Lewis isn't that great shakes either.
• The Orioles over the Rays: The Orioles have clearly showed their superiority over every other team in the AL East and that includes the Rays. If Kevin Gausman keeps pitching the way he has, he is going to be a star. The Emoticon, Drew Smyly, will always be (IMHO) a middle-to-bottom of the rotation guy.
• The Nationals over the Phillies: I have been wrong with this pick for two straight days, but I am nothing if not stubborn. Doug Fister should always beat Kyle Kendrick. But baseball will always be baseball.
• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: The Red Sox can enjoy being spoilers now and with Allen Craig back, can do some damage. I like Joe Kelly better than the erratic youth of Marcus Stroman. The undeniable truth though is that Stroman can kill it when he is on his game.
• The Tigers over the Yankees: David Price with each start is getting himself closer and closer to a paycheck that will change his name to T. Rowe Price. He prevents the Yankees from getting to the Tigers' weak bullpen by throwing strikes. Shane Greene will try to keep it close.
• The Mets over the Braves: Weak Mets' offense or not, Zack Wheeler has arrived and he has been phenomenal. Julio Teheran can force it to the bullpens and if so, the Braves have the advantage.
• The Reds over the Cubs: On paper, Mat Latos is better than Jacob Turner. But Turner was a wise pickup by the Cubs along the same lines as Arrieta was and the Cubs can turn him into a good pitcher. But that takes a little time. The Reds shouldn't get a ringing endorsement, but they are the pick.
• The Indians over the White Sox: I like that Adam Eaton is back for the White Sox. That said, I like Corey Kluber over Hector Noesi too much to fool around with this pick.
• The Twins over the Royals: That was quite exciting for the Royals last night and I like that they have a chance for the division. That city deserves it. But I don't like Royals starting Liam Hendriks.Yeesh. Phil Hughes has become a stud.
• The Athletics over the Astros: Brad Peacock has three problems. The first is his high ERA. The second is his 1.68 WHIP and the third is that he almost never goes more than five innings in his starts. He has pitched beyond the sixth inning only once in his last ten starts. That is too much exposure for those last twelve outs. Drew Pomeranz goes for the A's.
• The Brewers over the Padres: This pick hasn't gone well this week, but I'm feeling pretty good about this one. Yovani Gallardo will start for the Brewers, so that is reason one. The second is that Odrisamer Despaigne hasn't exactly been stingy in giving up runs in recent starts.
• The Angels over the Marlins: I hate to pick against Henderson Alvarez. He certainly has had a very good year. And the Marlins are no pushovers. But the Angels are home and Hector Santiago has been pitching well enough that I think they have the advantage.
• The Giants over the Rockies: For years I have thought that Hector Santiago and Franklin Morales were the same exact guy. But while Santiago plays for a great team like the Angels, Morales plays for a challenged team like the Rockies. Tim Hudson isn't a solid pick, but he is the pick tonight.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: Wade Miley has been better than earlier in the season, but he runs up against Clayton Kershaw. Sorry about that, Wade.

Yesterday: 7-8, August: 196-156, Games of the Day: 80-58 (+1), Season: 1090-905

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: August 16, 2014

Even though yesterday finished over .500 (barely), it was a disappointment after the previous three days. In those previous three days, the picks had gone 29-10 including 9-1 on Thursday. That kind of success made me happy. Yesterday did not.

And you know what? It was those danged extra-inning games that continue to drive me crazy. There were three of them yesterday and all three went against the pick. That's stupid and yet so typical. I should have kept track of this and maybe next year (God willing) I will.

Saturday's picks:

• The Giants over the Phillies: This was one of the extra-inning games and the real problem with this pick is that the Phillies are back to facing a right-handed pitcher in Tim Hudson. They are much better in those situations. But the Giants at home with Kyle Kendrick going for the Phillies is too attractive not to take.
• The Rays over the Yankees: One team is going, "Yay! We're at .500!" While the other one is saying, "Oh no! We are almost back at .500!" Two teams going in opposite directions with the Yankees sinking fast should produce another Rays win. The Emoticon, Drew Smyly, will now become a great pitcher in Tampa while Shane Greene will be treated somewhat rudely at the Trop.
• The Indians over the Orioles: There are so many competing forces going on here. The Orioles have been indestructible the last month while the Indians have one of the best home records in baseball. Carlos Carrasco was great his last time out but only pitched five innings. Ubaldo Jimenez has been awful all year but goes back to Cleveland where he had success. There is too much going on here!
• The Nationals over the Pirates: This is a tale of two lefties. Gio Gonzalez has lost his last four starts and five of his last six (the other was a no-decision). He is due for a win, but I worry about his health. Jeff Locke seems to pitch and never get decisions. He is only 4-3 after thirteen starts. Locke has been prone to the long ball this year and the Nats might hit a couple.
• The Mariners over the Tigers: This is a great pitching match-up and again, either ace can win depending on how their day goes. Felix Hernandez is 9-2 lifetime against the Tigers and 5-1 lifetime at Comerica. That's hard to ignore. So I give him the edge over David Price.
• The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: This pick was wrong yesterday but I am going back to it because Henderson Alvarez is pretty hard to beat at home. Plus, Wade Miley might run into Giancarlos Stanton's bat once or twice.
• The Mets over the Cubs: I am uncomfortable looking over the picks so far that I have so many home teams winning. I do take the location of the game into account, but mostly I go with match-ups and let the pick fall where it is. So, I'll keep going. Jon Niese makes me much more confident than Dan Straily. Simple.
• The Red Sox over the Astros: The Astros win yesterday (yes, in extra innings) surprised me. And it would surprise me if they win again today. While Rubby De La Rosa is inconsistent, at least he is capable of wow. I can't say that with Brad Peacock.
• The Royals over the Twins: Phil Hughes has won twelve games. He has walked only fifteen batters in 150+ innings and his home run rate is way down. So why am I picking against him? The Royals are too much on a roll and if Yordano Ventura has a good game, the Royals will find a way to win.
• The Athletics over the Braves: I'm starting to think that the A's should have left their team alone at the trade deadline. But I am still a fan of Sonny Gray. The only thing that can set this pick aside is if Julio Teheran can somehow regain his fine form of a year ago.
• The White Sox over the Blue Jays: Mark Buehrle couldn't get Mo'Ne Davis out at this point. He's been getting pounded. John Danks is not much more of a solid pick, but that's how I have it today.
• The Padres over the Cardinals: Jesse Hahn Chaka Hahn is my guy. He has had a little come down to earth in his last two starts, but I like him better than this year's version of Shelby Miller.
• The Angels over the Rangers: All Matt Shoemaker does is win. I'm still not quite sure how he does it. But he does. Colby Lewis has been better of late, but he is still a hit machine.
• The Rockies over the Reds: The Reds have had some success turning around pitchers with really bad track records. I wrote about one yesterday in Zach Duke. Dylan Axelrod had gotten worse and worse with more MLB exposure. But since he joined the Reds organization, his stats look better. But then he gets to make his first MLB start of 2014 at Coors Field. That's cruel! Jordan Lyles with the win.

And the Game of the Day:

• The Dodgers over the Brewers: Clayton Kershaw. Do I need to say more? Okay, how about Clayton Kershaw at home? That's enough. Yovani Gallardo has been good lately though.

Yesterday: 8-7, August: 117-88, Games of the Day: 73-54 (+4), Season: 1011-835