Comparing Carl Crawford to Shannon Stewart

While looking for a player this morning, the name Shannon Stewart, came into focus. Shannon Stewart? Remember him? Stewart was a good young player for the Toronto Blue Jays who, after playing five full seasons with that team, was traded to the Twins in 2003. His contribution to the Twins that season helped Minnesota to the playoffs. Stewart then had injury trouble to his feet and missed some chunks of time for the Twins. He had one last hurrah for the Oakland A's in 2007 and then sunk out of site with a poor 2008 and is now out of baseball. The question that immediately popped into the Fan's head when seeing Stewart's name was: "Wasn't he sort of the Carl Crawford of his day?"

The comparison makes sense in a lot of ways and also parts company in other ways. Let's look at both sides starting with the similar. Their offensive stats are startlingly similar. Stewart's career slash line: .297/.360/.430. Carl Crawford's career slash line: .296/.337/.444. Stewart had a career OPS+ of 105. Crawford sits at 107. Crawford has a little more pop in his bat but Stewart was better at getting on base.

The two were similar in that early in his career, Stewart was a prolific base runner. In Stewart's first full season, he stole 51 bases. But again, foot trouble plagued him and he really had only two seasons as a big time base stealing threat. Crawford, of course, has always been a stolen base threat and remains so even after nine seasons in the big leagues.

Both guys were left fielders who dabbled a little in center. Crawford is the superior fielder with fantastic fielding metrics. Stewart was just average out there. Both players had weak throwing arms from the outfield. But the bulk of Crawford's advantage over Stewart in WAR comes from fielding, not from offense.

Both players grew up in warm weather climates, Crawford in Houston and Stewart in Miami. As this Fan thinks about both player's careers, they seem very similar. Stewart was right-handed and Crawford is a lefty all the way. But Crawford's fielding and base running sets him apart. If Stewart hadn't hurt his feet, that might have been different.

* Please click on pics to see their sources.

Are the Angels Smart or Stupid?

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in California on the West Coast of the United States of America sure are taking a beating these days. Even one of their own players, Torii Hunter, is upset because the Angels whiffed on free agents Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, etc. It is doubtful that they will be in the final bidding for Cliff Lee. That leaves Adrian Beltre as the last big ticket free agent available to them. But do the Angels deserve the pile driving they are taking?

According to this writer's scorecard, Jayson Werth was overpaid, Carl Crawford was overpaid, Cliff Lee will be overpaid and Beltre is still an unknown as to what he is asking. Is a team stupid for turning away from making foolish contracts for players that will not be worth their value at the end of the terms of their deals? There's a strong indication against this being stupid but instead it could be wise. This Fan can guarantee you that Cliff Lee may have three years of effective pitching left in him. Carl Crawford may be this good for another three or four years. Werth has been improving steadily and could have four good years in him. Can you blame the Angels for blinking when all that cost will probably be eaten at the back end of those contracts?

On the other hand, the Angels as their roster now stands is full of holes. They don't have a DH, a third baseman or a bullpen. The DH (and probably the bullpen) is easily remedied as there are still a bunch of slow footed, stone gloved sluggers out there. Bullpen arms flood the market. Beltre would be perfect for third base for the Angels. So those situations are fixable. But the Angels have little if any value to trade and their system isn't exactly teaming with prospects. Since they haven't exactly built a system capable of feeding them young talent, the only way they can quickly improve to stay up with the Rangers is to buy the talent. At this point, that isn't going so well.

Others have insisted that the Angels are poor negotiators and are inflexible in their terms. Is that true? Is it a crime to attach a value at a player they covet and stick by that value? It's not like the Red Sox just out bid the Angels by a few measly dollars. The Red Sox out bid the Angels by almost $30 million! Which team is the stupid one here? History will have to give us the answer. But for now, this Fan can't blame the Angels for picking a timeline and a price tag that makes sense based on a player's value and projected value. If you break down their offer to Crawford, it's awfully close to Baseball Prospectus projections for how much Crawford will be worth over the next six years. The Red Sox, on the other hand, overpaid those projections by nearly $15 million and with the extra year guaranteed the back end of the deal to be an extreme risk. If the Angels whiffed on free agents and the difference between the prices offered was minimal, then, yeah, you have to question their tactics. But that is not the case here. The Torii Hunter contract is a very wise and fair contract for what Hunter has given them.

Many point to the Mo Vaughn contract as the reason the Angels are gun shy about long-term megadeals. But gosh, wouldn't you be? After averaging over five wins above replacement the previous five years for Boston, the Angels signed the splashy Vaughn for huge dollars and Vaughn responded with two years of 1.5 and 1.0 WAR for the Angels. They finally unloaded him off to the Mets for Kevin Appier and ate a bunch of the contract. That would sour a lot of people. If you put your finger in a light socket and get zapped, you're not going to do it again.

But it's not like they are nickel and diming people either. Hunter got a nice deal and offering Crawford six years and $105 million isn't exactly chump change. In the end, this Fan has to give the Angels props for being fiscally intelligent in not overpaying talent. That said, the result might be another year or two of being the second best team in the AL West. But winning isn't everything if it means offering stupid contracts. Just ask the Yankees or Rangers  four years from now when Cliff Lee is just another league average pitcher.

Comparing Carl Crawford to Bobby Abreu

There is no doubt in every one's mind that the Carl Crawford signing by the Boston Red Sox combined with their acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez makes them the team to beat in the American League East. This writer certainly has no arguments with those sentiments. The Fan thought the Red Sox were the favorites before Crawford signed. It just seemed a good time to take a good look at Crawford as a player since he will be in the thick of Red Sox seasons for years to come. When considering Crawford, the first name that came to mind was Bobby Abreu. But is that even close to being a good comparison?

Obviously when it comes to fielding, the Abreu/Crawford comparison is stupid. Abreu was at best an adequate fielder in his prime and an awful one after. Crawford, by all accounts is a wonderful left fielder. But Fenway Park and its configuration mitigates some of that value Crawford provides because left field in Fenway is like playing in a sandbox. But there are other comparables.

First, neither hit much for power. Abreu did have some good power years early in his career, but they are somewhat suspect in retrospect. His true power value seemed to be anywhere from 18 to 22 homers. Crawford hit 19 homers in 2010, his highest total in his career. That gives an edge to Abreu. Crawford hit many more triples than Abreu though. But still, Abreu's career slugging is .488. Crawford's is .444 and 2010 was the first season in Crawford's career that he slugged higher than .488 in a season.

Second, Abreu always had more patience at the plate. Both stayed around the .300 mark in batting average, but Abreu would consistently post .400 OBP or higher. Abreu walked over 100 times in a season for eight straight seasons. Crawford has never walked more than 51 times and has a career OBP of .337. In his peak years, he should post OBP totals from .350 to .365. Edge Abreu.

Base running is again a silly question, though not as silly as you would think. Crawford has averaged 50 steals a season with an incredible 82% success rate. Part of that could be explained by all those games facing Varitek and Posada, but still. It's incredible the success Crawford has had on the bases. Abreu was no slouch on the bases and in his peak nine years averaged 30 steals a season with a 77% success rate. But pitchers were never rattled with Abreu on the bases like they are with Crawford. Edge Crawford.

The Fan saved his favorite stat for last. It was interesting to note that Abreu has a career BABIP of .343. Crawford's career mark is .331. That means that more of Abreu's career batted balls fell in for hits than Crawfords. Why would that be? This observer thinks the difference is line drive percentage. Abreu's career live drive percentage is 22.1% (since 2002. The stat wasn't kept before that). It was common for Abreu to break the 25 to 26% mark during his best years. Carl Crawford has a career line drive percentage of 19.6% and it was 16.5% in 2010.  The highest mark Crawford ever put together for a season was 2003 with a 21.1% season. A lot of comments around the Net today mentioned that Crawford should pepper the Green Monster. But you have to hit line drives to do that. Crawford doesn't with regularity.

Abreu during his peak years had WAR ratings that rivaled or surpass Crawford's yearly totals and it wouldn't be close except for Crawford's fielding edge. So, believe it or not, Abreu was as good a player as Crawford is now.

What's the reason for bringing all this up? Two reasons. The first was to make the point that Bobby Abreu never scared this Fan with his play. If he was coming up in an All Star Game or a playoff game or a World Series game, there was never any quaking about what he might do at the plate. There were always other betters that scared you more. The same is true for Crawford. When the Yankees played the Bay Rays, Crawford was never a batter that put dread into you when you were watching in a close game. The question the Fan has is who would scare you more during a big playoff moment, Crawford or Werth. This Fan would have to say Werth.

The second reason for bringing all this up was to mention that Abreu's WAR totals started declining in his age 31 season. That's two years away for Crawford and his deal is for seven years. Again, don't get the Fan wrong. Crawford is a wonderful player and the Red Sox are the team to beat. The Fan just doesn't think he's as great as he's made out to be and doesn't think he will be worth over $20 million for the next seven seasons.

Quite a Race Going for AL MVP

Josh Hamilton has been amazing for the Rangers. Every single day the box score reveals multiple hits, doubles, homers, ribbies. The guy is just on another planet right now. But he's still not a lock for MVP. Another candidate is Miguel Cabrera, who has been putting up his own monster season. Robinson Cano has faded a bit in recent weeks, but if he heats up again, he is currently fourth in the majors in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Youkilis is a long shot and Morneau needs to come back hot from his concussion.

Those who vote for MVP usually vote on traditional counting stats. Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera lead the way in those categories. Currently first and second in batting respectively, they combine a high batting average with plenty of power and both are driving in runs in prodigious regularity. Hamilton is batting .360. Cabrera is batting .347. Both are amazing averages. Cabrera has Hamilton by one homer and fourteen RBIs. He also leads Hamilton in runs scored by four. Those are the traditional stats that MVP voters look at when the season is over. But there are other factors. If any of the voters are interested in some of the newer statistics, we'll get to those in a minute.

Team factors will arise for voters. Cano will have problems because he plays with a bunch of superstars. Hamilton isn't the only force in the Rangers' lineup. Young, Kinsler and especially, Vlad Guerrero, are all having great years. So that may be a detraction from Hamilton. Cabrera is the only great hitter in his lineup. Yes, rookies Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch are having good seasons. But they can't carry the lineup like Cabrera can. The problem Cabrera might face is if the Tigers fall out of the race and become irrelevant. If that happens, Cabrera's chances will suffer.

Youkilis and Morneau will have arguments as well. Morneau led all of baseball in WAR for most of the season until the last couple of weeks. Youkilis has had a great season and has been a rock for the Red Sox in a season of injury and upheaval. If the Red Sox cannot catch up to the two top teams in the AL East, he'll have problems getting votes. Morneau has been slowed by his concussion, but he also has a problem with his own teammates. Joe Mauer is considered one of the best players in baseball at a premier position and Delmon Young is having an amazing breakout season. Young might be the Twins MVP right now. Both Morneau and Youkilis have one other problem that Cabrera shares. They are all first baseman and because that position is so loaded throughout baseball (the NL MVP will come down to two first basement too in Votto and Pujols), all those great players get jumbled up in jumbo.

Will anybody with an MVP vote care about the newfangled statistics? Probably a few. If so, Cabrera leads all of baseball with an OPS of 1.067. Morneau is second and Hamilton is third. Morneau leads all of baseball in wOBA at .447. But that category is really tight. Cabrera is at .444 and Hamilton is at .441. Youkilis is fourth at .421. There is another stat called Win Probability (WPA) and Cabrera is first in that category and Hamilton second. Nobody is remotely close to them in those categories.

Where it gets dicey is if you go by value which includes fielding. Cabrera still isn't considered an elite first baseman. He has improved, no doubt. But he is not great. Hamilton is having a fine season in left and Morneau is having a great season in the field. When you add fielding to batting, you get a statistic called WAR or Wins above Replacement which is used to figure a dollar value on a player's performance. Hamilton leads the majors with a WAR of 5.4 and a value of $21.6 million. Morneau is second at 5.2 and $20.6 million. Carl Crawford, a long shot for this award, is a surprising third at 5.1 and $20.5 million. But it's really not that surprising to those who look at these kinds of numbers. Crawford has hit for some power, steals bases and is the best left fielder in the game today.

So where are we? Well, we have to take into consideration what the old-fogey voters vote for. They want average. They want power. And they want their winner to be on a contending team. Hamilton fits. Crawford fits, but again, he suffers from playing with Longoria and Zobrist who will distract some votes. Cabrera will lose out because the Tigers are fading and because he is a first baseman. That leaves us with Josh Hamilton, who would win if the vote was held tomorrow. And for once, the voters would not be wrong.

What Hustle Will Do

As someone affected by the current economy, this writer is appalled by the lack of hustle the lucky few who play in the major leagues display on a nightly basis. A few posts ago here in the FanDome, the topic was Craig Monroe, a fringe player in the majors who hustled his way out of a job in MLB due to his lack of hustle. After watching the Bay Rays play the Phillies tonight, both sides of the hustling spectrum came into full view.

First, let's consider the situation the current American League Champions find themselves in. Currently six games out of first, the Bay Rays have three teams in front of them: The Red Sox, the Yankees and the Blue Jays. All three are strong teams. At this point, if they have any chance for the wildcard and the playoffs, every game matters. So one would think a sense of urgency would permeate the team. The game tonight did not show the urgency except for a young guy named Ben Zobrist.

The game with the Phillies was close. Pat Burrell put the Bay Rays ahead 2-0 with a homer against his former mates. Garza and Blanton were terrific the entire game. The Phillies drew within a run with a homer of their own. While all this was going on, Carl Crawford hit a line drive that looked like an atom ball. As such, Crawford just jogged toward first, probably thinking he was going to be out. But the outfielder misjudged the ball and it went over his head. Only then did Crawford start busting it and decided to try to leg it into a triple. He was thrown out. If he had hustled right away, he would have been there easily. To make matters worse, the next batter doubled but did not score.

Later, B. J. Upton came up and hit a flare to short right field. The replay shows Upton jogging out of the batters box and nonchalantly trotted toward first. The first basemen and the second baseman ran to get the ball but both came up short and when neither could make the catch, they both overran the ball forcing the right fielder to have to come in and pick it up. Upton didn't run until the ball dropped and fortunately made it to second. But if he busted it from the beginning, he could have been at third. He should have been at third.

Crawford then singled to shallow left and Upton had to hold at third. If he has hustled, he would have scored on the single. Aybar was up next and hit a shallow fly to left the Matt Stairs caught on the run and easily threw Upton out at the plate for a double play. So if you are keeping score, that's two opportunities in a tight game blown by lack of hustle.

But that's where Ben Zobrist comes in. Pena got hit by a pitch moving Crawford to second. Zobrist then worked a walk loading the bases. Burrell is next and was ahead 2-0 in the count. Everything was in his favor but Burrell blew it and grounded to short on an inside pitch. Zobrist busted as hard as he could toward second and when Rollins flipped to Utley, they both expected it to be the last out of the inning. But Zobrist running as hard as he could, beat the throw. Safe! The run scored making it 3-1 but he also prolonged the inning. A single and a double followed and broke the game open to 7-1.

Zobrist, who has turned out to be one of the biggest pleasant surprises of 2009, gets it. He takes nothing for granted and works hard on every play. Crawford (which is a bit surprising) and Upton don't get it. They played the game like a part of the entitlement generation and cost their team two runs.

To a displaced worker now trying his darnedest to make his new company work, Zobrist is a hero.

Players Who Should Retire - Special Edition

After today's posts, it was hoped that the whole "Guys who should retire" topic would be over. But one guy who was left off the list on purpose forced one more post on the subject. That guy? Jason Varitek.

The Fan prattled on quite extensively during the off season on how Varitek wasn't wanted nor worth the kind of money he received last year. But then the Red Sox went ahead and signed him at a fairly low-ball price when Varitek really didn't have any other options.

The Fan stayed fairly quiet on the topic because he started off fairly decently and because the Red Sox Nation is a pretty aggressive bunch and the Fan didn't want to be hung in effigy. But after today, the Fan can't keep quiet on the subject any more, and not just because of Carl Crawford.

First, let the Fan state for the record that a stolen base can be blamed just as much on the pitcher as on the catcher. If the pitcher is too slow to home, then that gives the catcher virtually no chance to catch the runner. Watching the game today, it was obvious that some of Crawford's steals were on the pitcher. But Crawford stole six bases, and on some of those, Varitek had a chance to get him and didn't.

But even that is not the full story. The Bay Rays stole eight bases in the game including Crawford's six. One of the thefts was by the Bay Rays' catcher, his first stolen base of the season. Varitek didn't throw any of them out. That's 0-8. Plus he made a throwing error.

But even that is not the full story. Varitek went 0-3 with two strikeouts. And so in his last two games played, Varitek is 1-7 with four strikeouts. The prediction here is that Varitek, though batting at .239 for the season currently, will end up around the .220 mark or lower.

But even that is not the full story. The Red Sox starting pitching was supposed to be their big strength and so far, the starters are all struggling, except for Tim Wakefield, who, of course, Varitek doesn't catch. He is supposed to be so good with pitchers calling a game. If he gets that kind of credit when they do well, doesn't he deserve the same kind of credit when they don't?

As for Carl Crawford, he tied a modern day record for stolen bases in a game with his six. He joined Otis Nixon (6/16/1991) and Eric Young (6/30/1996) at the top of the modern day list. If you include the dead ball era, Eddie Collins did it twice in 1912 (ten days apart!). But if you go back even farther, George Gore and Billy Hamilton stole seven in a game in the 1800s. Gore's was the earliest, occurring on June 25, 1881. Egads! Now a Gore will claim he invented the stolen base!