MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: June 2, 2015

Holy cow, there are seventeen games being played today!! The weather played havoc with Monday night's activities and thus we get bombarded tonight. There are sixteen games tomorrow (so far). Wow.

With so many games on tap, I hope I do better than the measly 5-4 I went on Monday. Don't get me wrong, that record is better than being under .500, but it is still mediocre. Mike Fiers shut out the Cardinals. Not much you can do about that but tip your cap. And Felix Hernandez came unglued after the fourth inning, which was totally out of character.

There is a lot to do, so let's get going with Tuesday:

• The Nationals over the Blue Jays: I'm still thinking that Jordan Zimmermann is better than R.A. Dickey in this one. And the Blue Jays lose the DH.
• The Nationals over the Blue Jays: Yes, I am predicting a sweep. Because directly following Zimmermann, the Nats can throw Max Scherzer out there and take care of the second game. Marco Estrada doesn't do much for me for the Blue Jays.
• The Rockies over the Dodgers: This pitching match-up seems weird. Jorge De La Rosa goes for the Rockies and if anyone is used to pitching at Coors Field, it is him. He faces Juan Nicasio, his old friend and teammate who never had as much success at Coors than De La Rosa has. Besides, Nicasio hasn't started all season and if he goes four innings, that will be a lot.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: I can't guarantee that Zack Greinke will be as successful in Coors Field than at other places. But I can tell you that David Hale hasn't started all season and is a "put it in play" kind of pitcher. Not good for Coors.
• The Reds over the Phillies: Johnny Cueto comes off the disabled list to pitch this one. I have no idea how he will do. I still like him over Sean O'Sullivan and the Reds are playing slightly better of late.
• The Tigers over the Athletics: The Yankees made the A's look far better than they are. But then again, they have a knack for that. The Tigers won't be as kind. Alfredo Simon is doing much better for the Tigers than I thought he was going to do. I think he will be better than Kendall Graveman.
• The Cubs over the Marlins: I'm still trying to figure out why the Marlins chose the manager they did. The whole thing is surreal. For that reason and a whole lot of others, I like the Cubs here behind Kyle Hendricks. Brad Hand goes for the Marlins. Yeah, that's another reason.
• The Red Sox over the Twins: This is the same match-up as what was planned yesterday and I'm still going with Clay Buchholz over Mike Pelfrey.
• The Rangers over the White Sox: Colby Lewis came down to earth in a big way in his last start and was shellacked. I'm going with a rebound today, plus, his team is on a roll. Let's see what this new kid can do too. Jeff Samardzija goes for the White Sox.
• The Astros over the Orioles: Mike Wright has pitched brilliantly for the Orioles. Fluke? Real deal? I don't know yet. I do know that Collin McHugh is the real deal and should be dominant.
• The Indians over the Royals: Once again, you have a Jeremy Guthrie, whose success this season was punctured by a beating by the Yankees. Does he bounce back? Will it make a difference against a good pitcher like Carlos Carrasco?
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Lance Lynn is a known quantity. I know what he can do. I have no idea about Tyler Cravy who makes his MLB debut for the Brewers. Cravy was a late round draft pick who has done well in the minors. Can he make the jump?
• The Braves over the Diamondbacks. Josh Collmenter has not pitched well of late and yesterday's whoopin' of the D-backs by the Braves makes me nervous to pick them. Besides, Shelby Miller is very good.
• The Rays over the Angels: Chris Archer can be a shut down pitcher and that's why I think he will be today as the Rays have to bounce back from a loss yesterday to the hands of Albert Pujols and Mike Trout. Take care of those two and you win. C.J. Wilson goes for the Angels.
• The Yankees over the Mariners: This one is really hard to predict. CC Sabathia has been decent on the road. And the big ballpark will help him. For the Mariners, we get the MLB debut for Mike Montgomery, a big first round pick for the Royals way back when who fizzled for them and never got anywhere. Montgomery got into the Rays' system and is their wont, they fixed him and he has had good numbers in the minors since. Who knows how well he'll do tonight. I bet he has a change-up after coming from the Tampa system.
• The Pirates over the Giants: A.J. Burnett is 5-1 and is pitching some of the best baseball of his long career. The Giants start "Charlton" Chris Heston, who has done pretty well for himself in his young career. I'm going with the Pirates and for the Giants to lose their fourth in a row.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Mets over the Padres: The Mets are led by Bartolo Colon and once you navigate him, you get the young studs who can really pitch.  Noah Syndergaard has lived up to all the hype thus far. Ian Kennedy has been pretty awful to be honest.

Yesterday: 5-4, June: 5-4, Season: 383-357, Picks of the Day: 30-25

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: May 26, 2015

Memorial Day saw the picks just climb over .500 for the day. There were a number of good picks but just as many surprises that evened out whatever success I had. The Yankees and Mets both broke out of long slumps. One was good for the picks and one was bad.  It was a fun day of baseball.

Tuesday's picks:

• The Orioles over the Astros: I'm still not a Scott Feldman fan and Chris Tillman is starting to get his act back together. I don't think the Orioles are done by any stretch of the imagination.
• The Yankees over the Royals: No, I'm not sold on Adam Warren. But I've never been really sold on Jason Vargas either. I think the Yankees hit big again this game.
• The Pirates over the Marlins: Who and what is Jose Urena!? It sounds like an internal organ. He has three MLB innings thus far and no strikeouts. Color me skeptical. I'll go with Jeff Locke.
• The Cubs over the Nationals: The Nats are due for a loss as it has been a while. And Jordan Zimmermann has been a bit shaky. Kyle Hendricks, however, is pitching real well for the Cubs.
• The Blue Jays over the White Sox: R.A. Dickey has his best knucklers at home because of the controlled environment. John Danks always seems to cough up runs.
• The Reds over the Rockies: The Reds have to win some time and it might as well be today. Michael Lorenzen should be in the rotation full time. Jorge De La Rosa is a pretty good pitcher for the Rockies though.
• The Mets over the Phillies: I haven't been able to pick a visiting team yet and I'm getting the willies. But Jacob deGrom should be better than Jerome Williams.
• The Bay Rays over the Mariners: Okay, here is a visiting team pick. Phew! Alex Colome recovered nicely in his last start and I'll never, ever be a J.A. Happ fan, even if he wins ten in a row.
• The Indians over the Rangers: As good as the Rangers are hitting right now, I think they can be stopped by Danny Salazar. He has been that good. Add that to the fact that Wandy Rodriguez isn't what he used to be and I think you have an Indians win.
• The Red Sox over the Twins: The Red Sox will hit Mike Pelfrey. So it all depends on which Clay Buchholz shows up. I think the good one will show up in a big ballpark.
• The Diamondbacks over the Cardinals: If Jaime Garcia is going to win, it will be at home. But I don't know if he has it in him. Frankly, I think the Cards are fed up with him. I'll go with Archie Bradley instead.
• The Tigers over the Athletics: The A's don't hit lefties. David Price is only lefty, but he is one of the best. Jesse Chavez is not going to keep up. Now I'm going with too many visiting teams!
• The Angels over the Padres: Albert Pujols was not amused as he picked up his game-winning single. Take that, Padres! Matt Shoemaker should be better than Odrisamer Despaigne, a name I can now type without looking!
• The Dodgers over the Braves: Clayton Kershaw is always getting the best of the other team's rotation and that happens again today as he squares up with Julio Teheran. This should be a low scoring game.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Giants over the Brewers: Madison Bumgarner is one of the best, if not the best this year. He will need to keep Ryan Braun and company inside the park, but he should be able to do that. Matt Garza goes for the Brewers.

Yesterday: 8-7, May: 170-150, Season: 334-315, Picks of the Day: 27-21

MLB Game Picks - Friday, May 15, 2015

Alas, my streak is over. As the Cal Ripken of bloggers, I hadn't missed a game during the season for over four years. But the wifi at the hotel I stayed (The Senator Inn) was wofo and was unusable during the times I needed to get my posts done.  I was proud of that streak. Oh well.

Friday's picks:

• The Cubs over the Pirates: The Cubbies are hot and just swept the Mets. I'm not sure how well Kyle Hendricks will do, but I think the big bats of the Cubs will get to Jeff Locke.
• The Diamondbacks over the Phillies: Chase Anderson has been pitching very well and although I root hard for comeback kids like Chad Billingsley, I think the D-Backs with this game.
• The Orioles over the Angels: Jered Weaver tried to tell me his last time out that he was not done as a MLB pitcher. I'm not convinced. Wei-Yin Chen needs to pitch well to keep this pick on track.
• The Marlins over the Braves: David Phelps has been holding his own and I'm sure he likes that big ballpark compared to Yankee Stadium. Julio Teheran is a tough customer though.
• The Mets over the Brewers: The Legend of Shrek...er...Bartolo Colon continues, especially at home. Kyle Lohse will feel the Mets' wrath after they were swept by the Cubs.
• The Giants over the Reds: I have to go with Madison Bumgarner here even if he is pitching in that little band box in Cinci. Jason Marquis goes for the Reds.
• The Rangers over the Indians: If you pitch with your left hand, you can pitch forever if you want to. Take Wandy Rodriguez and Bruce Chen. They still have jobs after throwing soft junk for years.
• The Yankees over the Royals: Two undefeated pitchers who are both very tall. Michael Pineda versus Chris Young. There will be two Chris Youngs at the game. Confusing.
• The Twins over the Rays: There are former Yankees everywhere! Too bad they can't develop ballplayers and pitchers (sarcasm). Phil Hughes at home and not in April is a good pick here. Jake Odorizzi has been pitching pretty well.
• The Astros over the Blue Jays: This pick isn't against R.A. Dickey because last time I did that, he won and I was stupid. This is more a pick for Dallas Keuchel who has become one of the league's best starters.
• The Tigers over the Cardinals: The Tigers go flat once in a while, but when their offense is clicking (read Miguel Cabrera), they are pretty unstoppable. I think they will get to Carlos Martinez and Shane Greene will be good enough to win.
• The White Sox over the Athletics: Carlos Rodon sure was impressive in his first start. I am excited about him. I am not as excited about Chaka Jesse Hahn. I'm going with the White Sox.
• The Red Sox over the Mariners: The Red Sox have been playing well since their players only meeting. And Clay Buchholz pitched well his last time out. Besides, I think they will hit J.A. Happ.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Clayton Kershaw pitching in Coors is one thing. Him pitching at home is another. He has to be the pick here. Eddie Butler has been hit or miss in his starts.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Nationals over the Padres: Jordan Zimmermann should have a good day and Odrisamer Despaigne is still one of the hardest names to spell.

The other day: 9-6, May: 91-74, Season: 255-239, Picks of the Day: 20-17

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: April 12, 2015

I have to laugh. What else can I do? It totally amazes me how badly the start of my picking season has gone. I can't do anything right (except predict the Yankees will lose). Guys like Kershaw lose. I'm just shell shocked. A large part of me wants to just give up. But what the heck. It's hard to give up a feature you've been writing for five plus years now.

So the only option is to keep plodding along and hope people want to stop by just to rubberneck at the car crash.

Sunday's picks:

• The Tigers over the Indians: Probably the only fan base unhappier than the one in the Bronx is in Cleveland where the Indians were supposedly a contending team. It's way early to say they are not, but they don't look very good. Two erratic lefties go today. T.J. House goes for the Indians and in the age of the pitcher, he has a career WHIP of 1.46. And Kyle Lobstein goes for the Tigers.
• The Cardinals over the Reds: While Carlos Martinez has not convinced me he is a starting pitcher, I know nothing about Reds' starter, Raisel Iglesias, other than he was signed out of Cuba in the off season and did not have blow away numbers in Cuba.
• The Marlins over the Bay Rays: Nathan Karns wasn't very good for the Rays his first time out, but he'll probably be better today. Henderson Alvarez was a hard-luck loser his first time out. If his team scores a few runs, he'll win.
• The Mets over the Braves: Picking for or against Bartolo Colon is a crap shoot. I picked against him his first outing and burned for it. Now I will probably burn picking him. Alex Wood is a good pitcher for the Braves.
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: Drew Hutchison pitched very well his first time out, but that was against the Yankees, who can't hit. The Orioles almost always win when Chris Tillman starts. So that is the pick.
• The Nationals over the Phillies: Sean O'Sullivan has given up 40 homers in 132 big league innings. That is quite amazing. The Nats should feast on that. Meanwhile, Max Scherzer goes for the Nats.
• The White Sox over the Twins: The White Sox will get a boost from Chris Sale's first start of the season. He might be a bit rusty and not pitch deep into the game. Phil Hughes has become a good pitcher for the Twins but is still prone to the homer.
• The Brewers over the Pirates: The Pirates with a hurt Andrew McCutchen are not the same team. Casey Sadler makes his first MLB start after a cup of coffee in unsuccessful relief last year. Kyle Lohse is somewhat reliable at home.
• The Astros over the Rangers: The Rangers have had their way the first two games of this series. But I like Dallas Keuchel and Colby Lewis always scares me. A reverse happens today and the Astros win.
• The Royals over the Angels: C.J. Wilson was excellent his first time out. And so was Yordano Ventura. So which one will keep the hot streak going? I'm goin
• g with the Royals.
• The Mariners over the Athletics: Felix Hernandez in Oakland is not as much of a lock as King Felix in Seattle. And Jesse Hahn is better than what he did his first start. I'm still going with the Mariners.
• The Rockies over the Cubs: Kyle Hendricks makes his first start of the year for the Cubs who won yesterday. And Hendricks was great last season. But I'm going with Jordan Lyles in this one as he seems to know how to pitch in Coors.
• The Dodgers over the Diamondbacks: The Dodgers' bullpen has been brutal thus far and that has to be a huge concern. That said, I think Zack Greinke will have a good day and will out pitch Josh Collmenter.
• The Red Sox over the Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka does need to prove he can still pitch like last year. Even so, he didn't do well against the Red Sox. Clay Buchholz looks like an ace again and the Yankees cannot hit.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Padres over the Giants: I have no faith in Jake Peavy making his first start of the season. I have a lot more faith in Tyson Ross at home.

Yesterday: 6-9, Season: 32-44 (man...), Picks of the Day: 1-5.  Pathetic.

The 2014 Kyle Davies Award

The CYA were just announced the other day and that is the good news side of the coin. But for every Yin there is a Yang. The CYA celebrate the best pitchers of 2014. This award celebrates the worst. Call that negative if you want and it probably is. But, ultimately, baseball is about failure. All baseball players fail. The best batters fail 60% of the time. The best pitchers fail at least 40% of the time. Some fail more spectacularly than others. That's where I come in.

First, why Kyle Davies? Well...just ask a Royals fan next time you find one. I don't want to beat up Mr. Davies because he's probably a great guy and is still toiling in the minors trying to work his way back to MLB. As such, I root for him. But I had to have a symbol of what I am shooting for and Mr. Davies qualifies as such.

My method for compiling this list starts with rWAR. I have a preference for the way baseball-reference.com calculates pitching WAR over the way Fangraphs.com does. This is strictly personal. But I did not want to rely solely on rWAR. But it was a starting point. I did a search for all starting pitchers with 22 or more starts with a negative rWAR. That rWAR was turned into points. If a pitcher finished with an rWAR of -2.3, then he got 23 points. If i was -0.9 rWAR, then it was 9 points.

But then I took the bottom five of the following categories: ERA+, OPS+ against, FIP, IP per start, Quality Start percentage, Game Score Average and walks per strikeout. The worst stat in each garnered five points, the next to last, four points and so on down to one point for fifth worst. Then I simply added up all the points and the guy with the most won the award. I will list the best worst five with the highest point totals.

So here we go:

5. Franklin Morales. It's no fun pitching half of your starts at Coors Field. Morales did not have a Rocky Mountain High. Well...he did if you look at his stats. A 5.37 ERA to go along with a 5.42 FIP will help  you rack up the points. His WHIP over 1.6 wasn't pretty either. In the age of the pitcher, Morales did not get the memo.

3 and 4. Clay Buchholz and Kevin Correia. With all the goop Buchholz puts in his hair and on his arms, it's hard to watch the guy pitch. For Red Sox fans, it was even harder. His peripherals were not all that bad, but man, he went from a stud in 2013 to a really poor 2014. Kevin Correia is a pitcher only the Twins could covet.

2. Justin Masterson: For Indian and Cardinal fans, they know all about Masterson's struggles. When a sinkerball pitcher loses his sink, his pitches get whacked like a bad wrestler. For those looking for an example of a trade deadline deal gone bad, just look at Masterson. Never has a pitcher gotten in a fan base's dander faster than Masterson in St. Louis.

1. Our winner! Edwin Jackson! Theo Epstein will never stop hearing about this signing. Jackson has a .298 winning percentage for his two years with the Cubs with a 5.58 ERA. His ERA topped six in 2014 and his WHIP was over 1.6. He had the lowest ERA+ for all pitchers and his -2.3 rWAR is simply indicative of a guy that did not provide Cubs fans with a whole lot to cheer about (except when the manager came to get him).

So there it is, Edwin Jackson is our 2014 Kyle Davies Award winner. I really expected Ricky Nolasco to be on this list.

We have to have a relief pitcher edition. For this, I went just by rWAR. And your top bottom five are:

5. Rex Brothers: Cool name. But perhaps another victim of Coors.

4. Craig Breslow: A hero from the 2013 season tanked in 2014.

3. Ronald Belisario: The Windy City got windier with the catcalls.

2. Ernesto Frieri: His pitching did not fool anyone in 2014. Lost the closing job twice.

1. Our winner! Jim Johnson: His season was legendarily bad for Johnson. From 101 saves for the 2012 and 2013 Orioles, Johnson finished 2014 with a 1.950 WHIP. That's really, really bad.