Were We Watching Two Hall Of Fame Pitchers In Sabathia and Greinke?

Last night we watched CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke pitch a very competitive game as the Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the New York Yankees, 3-1. Sabathia gave up only two runs in 5.1 innings and notched his 3,000th strikeout against John Ryan Murphy, a catcher he used to throw to when Murphy was with the Yankees. Greinke, meanwhile, pitched 7.2 strong innings against an albeit depleted Yankee lineup and won his fifth game in six decisions. The Diamondbacks are 6-1 when Greinke pitches. Did we witness a future Hall Of Fame match up?

For better or worse, Roy Halladay's inclusion in the Hall of Fame on top of that of Jack Morris has changed the equation a bit with starting pitchers. Morris, we will not discuss at all as his inclusion was ridiculous. Halladay was one of the first "modern" pitchers voted into the Hall with the new emphasis of shorter outings, pitch counts and heavy bullpen usage--though Pedro Martinez and Mike Mussina could also be in that conversation.

Halladay finished with a Wins Above Replacement total of 64.5 (baseball-reference.com) or 65.4 (fangraphs.com). According to JAWS, he is the 43rd best starting pitcher of all time. Halladay finished with a 203 wins, a .659 Winning Percentage, a 3.39 career FIP and 2117 strikeouts. He won two Cy Young Awards and finished in the top five in that award five other times.

If Roy Halladay is our new bottom standard for Hall of Fame pitchers (no disrespect meant), then where do CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke stand? Let's start with Greinke as he seems to have a more solid argument.

Zack Greinke has two more years on his contract and is 35-years-old. At his current rate of productivity, he will add a bit to his resume. Greinke currently has compiled 66.9 career WAR (Fangraphs.com lists him more than ten wins lower!) and JAWS considers him the 47th best pitcher of all time. He won his 192nd game yesterday, good for a .617 winning percentage. He has a 3.40 career FIP and 2,481 strikeouts. He was won Cy Young Award and was screwed out of another and has finished in the top five as recently as two years ago.

Greinke is also one of the best fielding pitchers of his generation and arguably his generation's best hitting pitcher. It can easily be speculated that Greinke will finish with near 210 wins, 2,600 strikeouts and 68-70 WAR.

CC Sabathia is in his last season. Whatever he compiles this season will be it. And with the Yankees' quick bullpen trigger, Sabathia does not get the chance to pile up a lot of decisions. He made 29 starts last year and only figured in 16 decisions (Greinke figured in 26 decisions in his 33 starts). Sabathia currently has Wins Over Replacement totals of 63.2 (b-ref) and 66.4 (fWAR). Sabathia has 247 wins and should go over the 250 mark by season's end. And, as stated, he reached 3,000 strikeouts last night. Sabathia has a .616 winning percentage and should not finish under .614 even if things go flooey. Sabathia used to be a good hitter but has not had a hit since 2009 and is laughably one of the worst fielding pitchers of his generation.

JAWS considers Sabathia the 68th best starting pitcher of all time. But, he is also only the third left-handed pitcher to record 3,000 strikeouts and the last pitcher to compile ten complete games in a season AND 250 innings.

Roy Halladay had big moments in the post season. Who can ever forget that perfect game? Greinke and Sabathia have been okay in the post season but not great.

Personally, Zack Greinke is a lock. Since he left the Kansas City Royals after 2011, he has won over 70% of his decisions. That is still an important statistic to me. He has been effective even for teams who play in hitters' parks like Milwaukee and Arizona. I believe him to be one of the most underrated pitchers of his generation.

CC Sabathia will be an interesting case. The 3,000 strikeouts are impressive. The legend of what he did that season for Milwaukee will never grow old in the telling. He might just be the last pitcher to win 250 games. Pitching for the Yankees will be a blessing and a curse for his case. I think he is on the bubble which might get blown in after all is said and done.

Personally, if I had a vote, I would vote Sabathia, Greinke and Justin Verlander into the Hall of Fame. Time will tell how the voters really feel about the trio. All three are at least better than Jack Morris.

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: June 18, 2015

Another 10-5 day with another Pick of the Day incorrect! Doggone it! Talk about going 29-15 the last three days and not being able to enjoy it! How could Clayton Kershaw lose on me! Oh well. Those are the breaks.

Friday's Picks:

• The Orioles over the Phillies: The Phillies have a chance in this one as Bud Norris has not been pitching well. But even if this is a high scoring game, I expect the Orioles to win it. Sean O'Sullivan goes for the Phils.
• The Cardinals over the Twins: The Twins finally won last night but have been in a tailspin. They face Jaime Garcia who has been pitching great. Mike Pelfrey will probably not fare well here.
• The Rockies over the Astros: The last few times I've picked Collin McHugh, he has let me down. I will probably turn him around by picking against him. Heh. David Hale goes for the Rockies.
• The Athletics over the Padres: Unless the A's blew their wad last night in scoring all those runs, they should win this one. Kendall Graveman has been pitching well and is opposed by Ian Kennedy.
• The Diamondbacks over the Angels: I had a feeling that Allen Webster would thrive outside of Boston. And I could be right. I am picking him tonight over C.J. Wilson.
• The Yankees over the Marlins: I am probably a fool for picking the Yanks in a game that CC Sabathia starts. But Dan Jennings did not inspire me with his managerial moves last night. How can you not pinch hit for that catcher last night!? Mat Latos goes for the Fish.
• The Rays over the Nationals: The Nats are one big confusing team to me this year. Doug Fister is back from the DL. But I don't trust that. Besides Chris Archer is going for the Rays and expecting them to lose is futile these days.
• The Braves over the Red Sox: So yeah, the Red Sox were supposed to be pretty good and the Braves were supposed to be really bad this year. How has that worked out so far? Shelby Miller over Clay Buchholz.
• The Indians over the Cubs: You know...I am really over the position player pitching thing. Teams have never carried more pitchers than they do these days. There should never be a reason to put position players on the mound. It's ridiculous. Anyway, Danny Salazar over Jason Hammel.
• The Tigers over the Reds: Justin Verlander looked good in his first start. He had is velocity back too. He should go deeper into this game making it easier for me to take him over Mike Leake.
• The Royals over the Brewers: The Royals are simply the better team here and that makes me pick them even though Jeremy Guthrie is pitching for them. Jimmy Nelson goes for the Brewers.
• The Pirates over the White Sox: The White Sox are losing regularly these days and Jeff Samardzija is not getting much help. He won't tonight either with Gerrit Cole going for the Pirates.
• The Mariners over the Giants: The Mariners aren't getting much for offense. But if they pitch, they have a chance. I like Mike Montgomery a lot. So he is the pick over Ryan Vogelsong.
• The Dodgers over the Rangers: I'm still smarting from last night with this pick. The only thing having me pick against the very hot Rangers is that they are starting Anthony Ranaudo. Zack Greinke goes for the Dodgers.

And the Pick of the Day (come on now!)

• The Blue Jays over the Mets: I have a sick feeling that the Blue Jays offense is going to whack Bartolo Colon into submission. R.A. Dickey is usually just fine at home in the dome.

Yesterday: 10-5, June: 126-110, Season: 504-459, Picks of the Day: 37-34

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: June 13, 2015

With a 10-5 final tally yesterday, I had a good day except, the Pick of the Day was wrong again as the Diamondbacks beat Madison Bumgarner, 1-0. Sheesh. Of the four other wrong picks, one was Felix Hernandez not making it out of the first inning against the Astros. Say what!? Michael Pineda was totally gruesome against the Orioles. And, of course, I again could not count on Jordan Zimmermann. I am wondering about the health of Pineda and Hernandez too as that is the second time in his last four outings that he has been pulverized.

Saturday's picks:

• The Red Sox over the Blue Jays: This pick assumes a couple of things. First, it assumes that the Red Sox get to R.A. Dickey. I have run into trouble predicting that before. Secondly, it assumes that Clay Buchholz is back to form and will pitch well. Lastly, it assumes that winning streaks have to end some time.
• The Rangers over the Twins: The Twins are starting to come back to earth and the Rangers are really playing well. Colby Lewis and Mike Pelfrey seems like a draw of starting pitchers, so the better offense and home team should win.
• The Indians over the Tigers: At long last, Justin Verlander again takes the mound for the Tigers. He will not go deep in the game and the Tigers' bullpen is suspect. Plus, Carlos Carrasco has the ability to shut down the Tigers.
• The Mets over the Braves: It all depends on Jacob deGrom. If he is good, the Mets win. if not, then Shelby Lewis is also a very good pitcher. How are the Mets winning? Did you see their lineup last night? It's a head scratcher.
• The Rays over the White Sox: I can never trust Jeff Samardzija and Chris Archer has become one of the best pitchers in the AL. The Rays continue to win with mirrors while the White Sox continue to flounder around.
• The Rockies over the Marlins: David Hale has been surprisingly efficient in this his latest MLB incarnation. Mat Latos is just off the injury list and those things always bother me because of pitch limits and rust.
• The Cardinals over the Royals: I don't know why the Cardinals always go back to the same guy when someone gets hurt. But Tyler Lyons again gets the call. Even if Lyons is moderately successful, I think the Cards win as they get to Jeremy Guthrie because they are willing to go to the opposite field. But if Lyons totally sucks, look out.
• The Astros over the Mariners: Mike Montgomery has pitched two great games for the Mariners and has nothing to show for it. It would be great for him to get his first MLB win. But I think he will again be thwarted as Collin McHugh shuts down the Mariners.
• The Brewers over the Nationals: It would be nice for the Nats if someone besides Bryce Harper would start swinging the bat. If the Nats lose, they fall to .500. Not good. Joe Ross goes for the Nats and Jimmy Nelson for the Brewers.
• The Diamondbacks over the Giants: I have always been a big believer in Allen Webster. He is getting his chance for the D-backs tonight and I think he can thrive in a less pressure situation than Boston. He has to keep the walks down though. Ryan Vogelsong is always pretty tough at home.
• The Cubs over the Reds: I like Kyle Hendricks and I like the Cubs chances against Mike Leake. So that's the pick.
• The Orioles over the Yankees: The Yankees have handled Bud Norris in the past. But I don't trust CC Sabathia against a good lineup like the Orioles.
• The Angels over the Athletics: Kendall Graveman has pitched better of late and should be solid tonight. But the fact remains that the A's do not hit lefties well and C.J. Wilson is certainly that. The A's sink deeper into the AL West hole.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Zack Greinke has had two sub par outings in a row, but I'm guessing he'll break out of that tonight. Ian Kennedy is just not somebody I feel comfortable picking...ever.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Pirates over the Phillies: Both bullpens will be a little gassed, so it will be important for the starters to go deep. I think Gerrit Cole becomes a ten-game winner in this one with Sean O'Sullivan getting the short end.

Yesterday: 10-5, June: 83-76, Season: 461-429, Picks of the Day: 35-31 (-2)

MLB Game Picks - Friday: May 22, 2015

Finally! It took my son's birthday to get me on track! I only got three wrong for the day yesterday for a much needed boost to my picking morale. Now, if I can keep this going, I would be most thankful!

Friday's picks:

• The Pirates over the Mets: Noah Syndegaard has been everything the Mets had hoped he'd be. But Gerrit Cole is everything the Pirates hoped he'd be too. As the starters cancel each other out, I'll go with the home team.
• The Yankees over the Rangers: The Yankees get some much needed home cooking after a brutal road trip and have their best pitcher on the mound. The Rangers go with Colby Lewis, who I will no longer bad-mouth.
• The Mariners over the Blue Jays: Let's see...would you go with Felix Hernandez or Marco Estrada? No brainer right? Those are always the ones that trip me up though.
• The Tigers over the Astros: I love me some Collin McHugh. But here's the thing: The Astros ONLY hit homers. They have like a .200 batting average. The Tigers' home park is massive. So not many homers are hit there. I'm going with Alfredo Simon and the Tigers.
• The Orioles over the Marlins: The Marlins have gone from bad to worse under their new manager. What a dumb organization that is. Anyway, I like Ubaldo Jimenez's chances in Miami better than Henderson Alvarez as he is currently pitching.
• The Indians over the Reds: The Reds have hit hard times of late and Mike Leake is leading the way with quite a drop off in production since his early starts. Carlos Carrasco is a quality starter.
• The Angels over the Red Sox: The Red Sox are reeling and can't seem to hit lately. They keep tinkering with things and they should just get something they believe in and leave it alone for a while. But anyway, I like Garrett Richards over Mike Porcello here.
• The Rays over the Athletics: Disaster has struck the A's as they have sunk to the depths of the AL. Boom goes the division championship dreams! Scott Kazmir hasn't been at fault. But I think Chris Archer is the difference here.
• The Brewers over the Braves: The Brewers are a hot team right now, so I'm sticking with them while they are sizzling. Shame on Fredi Gonzalez for the pine tar incident. That was a cheap shot.  Wily Peralta and Alex Wood are the starters.
• The White Sox over the Twins: Phil Hughes and Jeff Samardzija have been encouraging to their respective teams with their last starts. I simply like the threat of the long ball against Hughes by the White Sox hitters.
• The Rockies over the Giants: The Giants just made the Dodgers look like silly putty. So why pick against them? Because baseball is funny. I don't like either starter here in either Ryan Vogelsong or Kyle Kendrick. But one of them has to win.
• The Royals over the Cardinals: You have to admit that everything is going right for the Royals when they sign Chris Young and he starts out going 3-0. They are charmed right now. They are also the perfect offense against Lance Lynn as they don't strike out and sit on fastballs.
• The Cubs over the Diamondbacks: The D-backs have been playing some good baseball of late. Jon Lester, however, has been coming on strong for the Cubs. Josh Collmenter was good his last time out but isn't as good as Lester.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: The Padres are going to pay for what happened to the Dodgers in San Francisco. Again, that's baseball. Speaking of baseball, Andrew Cashner has had quality starts in six of his last seven outings and is 1-7. Ouch. Zack Greinke goes for the Dodgers.

And the Pick of the Day

• The Nationals over the Phillies: Sean O'Sullivan shut me up his last outing and pitched really well. But he runs up against Max Scherzer. And the Nats are hot and Bryce Harper got thrown out of his last game. Look out.

Yesterday: 9-3, May: 140-119, Season: 304-284, Picks of the Day: 24-20

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: May 16, 2015

The picks struggled to finish a game above .500 yesterday, but I'm okay with that. They were way down after the Yankees got trounced and I think it was like 2-6 at that point. Bartolo Colon had his clunker. I should have gone with the Orioles. But the day finished with a flourish of correct picks to go 6-1 for the late games to save the day. I had a big day in my fantasy league too.

Saturday's picks:

• The Marlins over the Braves: Yeah, I know. This pick did not work out yesterday. But I like it today despite Mat Latos starting. Alex Wood goes for the Braves.
• The Twins over the Rays: Trevor May has surprised me. Heck, the Twins period have surprised me. I'm going with them again today as Alex Colome is coming off a bad start against the Yankees.
• The Tigers over the Cardinals: I got this one right yesterday and I think the Tigers will score another ten runs (for the third straight day) against Tyler Lyons and company. Besides, David Price is pitching today.
• The Cubs over the Pirates: I hate to pick against Gerrit Cole right now. But the Cubs have been hot and Jon Lester is coming on to be what they expected.
• The Diamondbacks over the Phillies: The Phillies are winning too many games lately. That has to end. Jerome Williams is as good a pick at making that happen as anyone. And Archie Bradley looks really good at times.
• The Orioles over the Angels: Ubaldo Jimenez has resurrected himself and I like his chances at home. The Angels go with Matt Shoemaker who hasn't gelled into last year's form yet.
• The Brewers over the Mets: The Brewers have gotten hot since the managerial change (maybe sometimes it works) and the Mets have skidded a bit. Jacob deGrom has been spotty and (heaven help me) I'm going with Matt Garza.
• The Yankees over the Royals: This is probably the Yanks' best chance this series with Danny Duffy pitching. CC Sabathia will need a good BABIP day though.
• The Reds over the Giants: Assuming there will be no more fires today except in the Reds' bats against Ryan Vogelsong, the Reds should win this one behind Mike Leake.
• The Astros over the Blue Jays: The key question in today's match-up is which pitcher, Marco Estrada or Scott Feldman will give up more homers than the other. I'm thinking Feldman will give up less.
• The Indians over the Rangers: If Danny Salazar pitches like he is capable, the Indians should win. If not, woo boy, this pick is going to be embarrassing. Colby Lewis goes for the Rangers.
• The Nationals over the Padres: The Nats are mashing right now and Max Scherzer is pitching. I suppose Andrew Cashner could put his impressive stuff together for a start, but I'm not going to pick that way.
• The Mariners over the Red Sox: Will Felix Hernandez continue is really impressive pitching? Probably. Can Rick Porcello keep up with him and make it a bullpen game? Maybe. We'll see.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: Zack Greinke has not lost this season and he makes a great one-two punch with Kershaw. Jorge De La Rosa has not pitched well for the Rockies.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The White Sox over the Athletics: It's hard to believe that the A's are ten games under .500 right now. Wow. One of their big problems as a team is the inability to hit left-handed pitching. They have a .544 OPS against lefties this season. John Danks is no great shakes. But he is a lefty. Jesse Chavez goes for the A's.

Yesterday: 8-7, May: 100-80, Season: 264-245, Picks of the Day: 21-17

MLB Game Picks - Monday: May 11, 2015

On a full day of baseball, I consider nine correct picks a good day and ten a great day. That designation hung in the balance last night until midnight with the Royals - Tigers game. It was 1-1 going into the ninth and the home field advantage of the Tigers was somewhat nullified by the great Royals' bullpen. The bullpen won out and I didn't have a great day. I had a good day.

Monday's picks:

• The Pirates over the Phillies: The Pirates came alive a little bit against the Cards. Gerrit Cole pitches and he has been great. Jerome Williams goes for the Phillies and he will pitch well about a third of the time. I'm counting on this not being one of those thirds.
• The Orioles over the Blue Jays: I don't think the AL East has played anyone but each other for the first six weeks of the season. And anything can happen in any match-up. I don't think the Orioles will have trouble with Marco Estrada. A lot will depend on how well Ubaldo Jimenez pitches.
• The Reds over the Braves: It's so weird seeing the Braves have such a bad bullpen. When is the last time it was like that? Considering this pick, Shelby Miller has been great for the Braves. But Mike Leake has been great for the Reds, I know as I have picked against him several times.
• The Rays over the Yankees: CC Sabathia has thrown a goose egg thus far and is 0-5. That streak has to end some time. Will today be that day? Alex Colome has had two very good outings and has yet to walk a batter. I'm going with the Rays at home.
• The White Sox over the Brewers: The White Sox have come alive and have started winning regularly. They will lose the DH today, but should still have more offense than the Brewers. Jeff Samardzija versus Wily Peralta.
• The Cubs over the Mets: I love me some Jacob deGrom and it pains me to pick against him. But he loves his fastball and the Cubs have all these young guys who can club fastballs. Meanwhile, Jon Lester is rounding into form after a slow start.
• The Nationals over the Diamondbacks: I'm still waiting for Max Scherzer to get all commando on the National League. It hasn't happened yet. Perhaps it will start today against his old team. Josh Collmenter will try to keep up.
• The Red Sox over the Athletics: The A's have yet to get it together this season. Neither have the Red Sox for that matter. But the Red Sox will win their second in a row and everyone will talk about how important that players-only team meeting was. Gag me. Rick Porcello versus Scott Kazmir.
• The Dodgers over the Marlins: Zack Greinke has been about as money as money can get this season. Tom Koehler should be good in a big ballpark. It might be a squeaker but the Dodgers will prevail.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Royals over the Rangers: Even now, I have a hard time believing that the Royals are a world class team. Some day it will sink in. Danny Duffy goes today against Colby Lewis and it may not be pretty for the Rangers.

Yesterday: 9-6, May: 76-64, Season: 240-229, Pick of the Day: 19-16