Were We Watching Two Hall Of Fame Pitchers In Sabathia and Greinke?

Last night we watched CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke pitch a very competitive game as the Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the New York Yankees, 3-1. Sabathia gave up only two runs in 5.1 innings and notched his 3,000th strikeout against John Ryan Murphy, a catcher he used to throw to when Murphy was with the Yankees. Greinke, meanwhile, pitched 7.2 strong innings against an albeit depleted Yankee lineup and won his fifth game in six decisions. The Diamondbacks are 6-1 when Greinke pitches. Did we witness a future Hall Of Fame match up?

For better or worse, Roy Halladay's inclusion in the Hall of Fame on top of that of Jack Morris has changed the equation a bit with starting pitchers. Morris, we will not discuss at all as his inclusion was ridiculous. Halladay was one of the first "modern" pitchers voted into the Hall with the new emphasis of shorter outings, pitch counts and heavy bullpen usage--though Pedro Martinez and Mike Mussina could also be in that conversation.

Halladay finished with a Wins Above Replacement total of 64.5 (baseball-reference.com) or 65.4 (fangraphs.com). According to JAWS, he is the 43rd best starting pitcher of all time. Halladay finished with a 203 wins, a .659 Winning Percentage, a 3.39 career FIP and 2117 strikeouts. He won two Cy Young Awards and finished in the top five in that award five other times.

If Roy Halladay is our new bottom standard for Hall of Fame pitchers (no disrespect meant), then where do CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke stand? Let's start with Greinke as he seems to have a more solid argument.

Zack Greinke has two more years on his contract and is 35-years-old. At his current rate of productivity, he will add a bit to his resume. Greinke currently has compiled 66.9 career WAR (Fangraphs.com lists him more than ten wins lower!) and JAWS considers him the 47th best pitcher of all time. He won his 192nd game yesterday, good for a .617 winning percentage. He has a 3.40 career FIP and 2,481 strikeouts. He was won Cy Young Award and was screwed out of another and has finished in the top five as recently as two years ago.

Greinke is also one of the best fielding pitchers of his generation and arguably his generation's best hitting pitcher. It can easily be speculated that Greinke will finish with near 210 wins, 2,600 strikeouts and 68-70 WAR.

CC Sabathia is in his last season. Whatever he compiles this season will be it. And with the Yankees' quick bullpen trigger, Sabathia does not get the chance to pile up a lot of decisions. He made 29 starts last year and only figured in 16 decisions (Greinke figured in 26 decisions in his 33 starts). Sabathia currently has Wins Over Replacement totals of 63.2 (b-ref) and 66.4 (fWAR). Sabathia has 247 wins and should go over the 250 mark by season's end. And, as stated, he reached 3,000 strikeouts last night. Sabathia has a .616 winning percentage and should not finish under .614 even if things go flooey. Sabathia used to be a good hitter but has not had a hit since 2009 and is laughably one of the worst fielding pitchers of his generation.

JAWS considers Sabathia the 68th best starting pitcher of all time. But, he is also only the third left-handed pitcher to record 3,000 strikeouts and the last pitcher to compile ten complete games in a season AND 250 innings.

Roy Halladay had big moments in the post season. Who can ever forget that perfect game? Greinke and Sabathia have been okay in the post season but not great.

Personally, Zack Greinke is a lock. Since he left the Kansas City Royals after 2011, he has won over 70% of his decisions. That is still an important statistic to me. He has been effective even for teams who play in hitters' parks like Milwaukee and Arizona. I believe him to be one of the most underrated pitchers of his generation.

CC Sabathia will be an interesting case. The 3,000 strikeouts are impressive. The legend of what he did that season for Milwaukee will never grow old in the telling. He might just be the last pitcher to win 250 games. Pitching for the Yankees will be a blessing and a curse for his case. I think he is on the bubble which might get blown in after all is said and done.

Personally, if I had a vote, I would vote Sabathia, Greinke and Justin Verlander into the Hall of Fame. Time will tell how the voters really feel about the trio. All three are at least better than Jack Morris.

Yankees Gave The Advantage Back To Boston

I warned the Yankees about Brock Holt before the game yesterday. The Yankees usually hold their own against the superstars. But the utility guys kick them around all the time. The guy has a 91 career OPS+ and he gets ten total bases in one game against the Yankees. Ah well, the fact is that once again, Luis Severino could not come up big in a playoff game. So he got David Priced by the Red Sox and from there, all hell broke loose.

So now the Yankees face elimination. They have to beat the best team in baseball two games in a row to advance. They lose tonight, they go home. And surprisingly, the Yankees have chosen CC Sabathia to start the game. While this seems a big gamble, it is not as if Sabathia hasn't been here before. He is 2018's Andy Pettitte trying to rally the day. But I thought sure that J.A. Happ would get the start. Boston is why the Yankees went and got him, right? That becomes moot if the Yankees go home.

On the other side, the Boston Red Sox will start, Rick Porcello, a pitcher who has made the Yankees look stupid on many an occasion. The Yankees had a lousy batting plan against Nathan Eovaldi and if they don't plan better against Porcello, they will go home. It is as simple as that. The Yankees cannot continue to try to pull the ball against these guys. Eovaldi will invade the dreams far into the winter.

Aaron Hicks is back. Is that a good thing? Can he play defense with a bad hammy? Can he play it as well as Brett Gardner? At least he will bat third and push Luke Voit down in the batting order. The Yankees got really carried away by batting Voit third yesterday. The guy is easy to love and all of that, but he is not a three-hole hitter and will bog down against good pitching. He is another guy who had all his success hitting the ball to right field and suddenly wants to pull everything now. Why do all Yankee players turn into that? Giancarlo Stanton? Gary Sanchez? Pull, pull, pull. Go the other way!!

The Yankees will win if they have a good plan against Porcello and get him early AND if CC Sabathia can survive four innings with less than three runs. The Yankees will lose in all other scenarios. But at least one shred of dignity will be left. Other than the Braves, the Yankees will be the only vanquished Division Series team that won at least once in the series.

Oh, and remember one thing. In 2004, the Yankees took a 3-0 series lead against the Red Sox by scoring 19 runs in the third game. They never won the fourth game. So anything is possible. It's just not probable.

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: June 18, 2015

Another 10-5 day with another Pick of the Day incorrect! Doggone it! Talk about going 29-15 the last three days and not being able to enjoy it! How could Clayton Kershaw lose on me! Oh well. Those are the breaks.

Friday's Picks:

• The Orioles over the Phillies: The Phillies have a chance in this one as Bud Norris has not been pitching well. But even if this is a high scoring game, I expect the Orioles to win it. Sean O'Sullivan goes for the Phils.
• The Cardinals over the Twins: The Twins finally won last night but have been in a tailspin. They face Jaime Garcia who has been pitching great. Mike Pelfrey will probably not fare well here.
• The Rockies over the Astros: The last few times I've picked Collin McHugh, he has let me down. I will probably turn him around by picking against him. Heh. David Hale goes for the Rockies.
• The Athletics over the Padres: Unless the A's blew their wad last night in scoring all those runs, they should win this one. Kendall Graveman has been pitching well and is opposed by Ian Kennedy.
• The Diamondbacks over the Angels: I had a feeling that Allen Webster would thrive outside of Boston. And I could be right. I am picking him tonight over C.J. Wilson.
• The Yankees over the Marlins: I am probably a fool for picking the Yanks in a game that CC Sabathia starts. But Dan Jennings did not inspire me with his managerial moves last night. How can you not pinch hit for that catcher last night!? Mat Latos goes for the Fish.
• The Rays over the Nationals: The Nats are one big confusing team to me this year. Doug Fister is back from the DL. But I don't trust that. Besides Chris Archer is going for the Rays and expecting them to lose is futile these days.
• The Braves over the Red Sox: So yeah, the Red Sox were supposed to be pretty good and the Braves were supposed to be really bad this year. How has that worked out so far? Shelby Miller over Clay Buchholz.
• The Indians over the Cubs: You know...I am really over the position player pitching thing. Teams have never carried more pitchers than they do these days. There should never be a reason to put position players on the mound. It's ridiculous. Anyway, Danny Salazar over Jason Hammel.
• The Tigers over the Reds: Justin Verlander looked good in his first start. He had is velocity back too. He should go deeper into this game making it easier for me to take him over Mike Leake.
• The Royals over the Brewers: The Royals are simply the better team here and that makes me pick them even though Jeremy Guthrie is pitching for them. Jimmy Nelson goes for the Brewers.
• The Pirates over the White Sox: The White Sox are losing regularly these days and Jeff Samardzija is not getting much help. He won't tonight either with Gerrit Cole going for the Pirates.
• The Mariners over the Giants: The Mariners aren't getting much for offense. But if they pitch, they have a chance. I like Mike Montgomery a lot. So he is the pick over Ryan Vogelsong.
• The Dodgers over the Rangers: I'm still smarting from last night with this pick. The only thing having me pick against the very hot Rangers is that they are starting Anthony Ranaudo. Zack Greinke goes for the Dodgers.

And the Pick of the Day (come on now!)

• The Blue Jays over the Mets: I have a sick feeling that the Blue Jays offense is going to whack Bartolo Colon into submission. R.A. Dickey is usually just fine at home in the dome.

Yesterday: 10-5, June: 126-110, Season: 504-459, Picks of the Day: 37-34

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: June 7, 2015

Saturday was a pretty good picking day as most, if not all of the aces picked up their wins.  I guess I really need to pay attention to the Padres as they are putting it together right now. Other teams are scuffling like the Mets and the Reds. All these trends need to be followed when doing this day after day.

Can someone tell me why you would bring Vance Worley into a game with that game on the line?

Sunday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Angels: C.J. Wilson has good days and bad days. If he has a good one, that will break this pick. But the Yankees are hot and the Angels are not and hence the pick.
• The Astros over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have just destroyed the Astros the last two days. Will it continue with Collin McHugh? I don't think so. How R.A. Dickey fares will be a big factor too.
• The Indians over the Orioles: The O's are really scuffling right now. When they pitch, they don't hit. When they hit, they don't pitch. Carlos Carrasco is consistently good and Bud Norris is not. Nick Swisher is hot for Cleveland.
• The Reds over the Padres: This pick has been wrong every day, William. So why are you making it? But...but...but...Johnny Cueto is pitching! Oh, okay then, carry on. Odrisamer Despaigne goes for the Padres.
• The Red Sox over the Athletics: Clay Buchholz has emerged from a long, dark day and into the light. Kendall Graveman should get knocked around a bit by the Red Sox offense.
• The Giants over the Phillies: Madison Bumgarner once again puts the Giants back on balance and makes those behind him better. Ryan Vogelsong is today's guy and I don't think the Giants will struggle to hit Sean O'Sullivan.
• The Tigers over the White Sox: Jeff Samardzija is so confusing. Is he good? If so, then why does he get banged around so badly on a semi-regular basis? I just can't trust him. Not that trusting Alfredo Simon is any more comforting.
• The Brewers over the Twins: Mike Fiers is my pick here. The guy came to life in his last start and pitched the way he did last year. If he continues there, there is no way the Twins win. That is unless Mike Pelfrey is just as good and it becomes a bullpen battle.
• The Royals over the Rangers: The Rangers have made me look foolish in this series and the pitching match-up of Jeremy Guthrie versus Colby Lewis makes me cringe. The Royals are the better team though.
• The Nationals over the Cubs: I got this wrong yesterday...doubly wrong because I called the Cubs, the Phillies. Yeah, nice one, William! Jordan Zimmermann has been awesome lately, and is especially good after a team loss. Kyle Hendricks is a good pitcher for the Cubs too.
• The Marlins over the Rockies: Despite the loss, Jose Urena was pretty good in his last outing for the Marlins. So I pick him and his team because Kyle Kendrick at home in Coors gives me the willies.
• The Diamondbacks over the Mets: The Mets' offense has gone to sleep. As such, Josh Collmenter has a chance against Jacob deGrom even though I like deGrom a lot.
• The Mariners over the Rays: Mike Montgomery was pretty impressive against the Yankees and he pitches against the team that gave his career new life, and, of course, taught him the change-up. Chris Archer loses a close one.
• The Cardinals over the Dodgers: Lance Lynn will shut down the Dodgers and will get a few runs against Zack Greinke.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Pirates over the Braves: Despite the stupid managerial move yesterday, I'll stick with the Pirates in this one because of Gerrit Cole. The pitcher is 8-2 after all. Alex Wood toils for the Braves.

Yesterday: 9-6, June: 44-38, Season: 422-391, Picks of the Day: 33-27 (+2)

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: June 2, 2015

Holy cow, there are seventeen games being played today!! The weather played havoc with Monday night's activities and thus we get bombarded tonight. There are sixteen games tomorrow (so far). Wow.

With so many games on tap, I hope I do better than the measly 5-4 I went on Monday. Don't get me wrong, that record is better than being under .500, but it is still mediocre. Mike Fiers shut out the Cardinals. Not much you can do about that but tip your cap. And Felix Hernandez came unglued after the fourth inning, which was totally out of character.

There is a lot to do, so let's get going with Tuesday:

• The Nationals over the Blue Jays: I'm still thinking that Jordan Zimmermann is better than R.A. Dickey in this one. And the Blue Jays lose the DH.
• The Nationals over the Blue Jays: Yes, I am predicting a sweep. Because directly following Zimmermann, the Nats can throw Max Scherzer out there and take care of the second game. Marco Estrada doesn't do much for me for the Blue Jays.
• The Rockies over the Dodgers: This pitching match-up seems weird. Jorge De La Rosa goes for the Rockies and if anyone is used to pitching at Coors Field, it is him. He faces Juan Nicasio, his old friend and teammate who never had as much success at Coors than De La Rosa has. Besides, Nicasio hasn't started all season and if he goes four innings, that will be a lot.
• The Dodgers over the Rockies: I can't guarantee that Zack Greinke will be as successful in Coors Field than at other places. But I can tell you that David Hale hasn't started all season and is a "put it in play" kind of pitcher. Not good for Coors.
• The Reds over the Phillies: Johnny Cueto comes off the disabled list to pitch this one. I have no idea how he will do. I still like him over Sean O'Sullivan and the Reds are playing slightly better of late.
• The Tigers over the Athletics: The Yankees made the A's look far better than they are. But then again, they have a knack for that. The Tigers won't be as kind. Alfredo Simon is doing much better for the Tigers than I thought he was going to do. I think he will be better than Kendall Graveman.
• The Cubs over the Marlins: I'm still trying to figure out why the Marlins chose the manager they did. The whole thing is surreal. For that reason and a whole lot of others, I like the Cubs here behind Kyle Hendricks. Brad Hand goes for the Marlins. Yeah, that's another reason.
• The Red Sox over the Twins: This is the same match-up as what was planned yesterday and I'm still going with Clay Buchholz over Mike Pelfrey.
• The Rangers over the White Sox: Colby Lewis came down to earth in a big way in his last start and was shellacked. I'm going with a rebound today, plus, his team is on a roll. Let's see what this new kid can do too. Jeff Samardzija goes for the White Sox.
• The Astros over the Orioles: Mike Wright has pitched brilliantly for the Orioles. Fluke? Real deal? I don't know yet. I do know that Collin McHugh is the real deal and should be dominant.
• The Indians over the Royals: Once again, you have a Jeremy Guthrie, whose success this season was punctured by a beating by the Yankees. Does he bounce back? Will it make a difference against a good pitcher like Carlos Carrasco?
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Lance Lynn is a known quantity. I know what he can do. I have no idea about Tyler Cravy who makes his MLB debut for the Brewers. Cravy was a late round draft pick who has done well in the minors. Can he make the jump?
• The Braves over the Diamondbacks. Josh Collmenter has not pitched well of late and yesterday's whoopin' of the D-backs by the Braves makes me nervous to pick them. Besides, Shelby Miller is very good.
• The Rays over the Angels: Chris Archer can be a shut down pitcher and that's why I think he will be today as the Rays have to bounce back from a loss yesterday to the hands of Albert Pujols and Mike Trout. Take care of those two and you win. C.J. Wilson goes for the Angels.
• The Yankees over the Mariners: This one is really hard to predict. CC Sabathia has been decent on the road. And the big ballpark will help him. For the Mariners, we get the MLB debut for Mike Montgomery, a big first round pick for the Royals way back when who fizzled for them and never got anywhere. Montgomery got into the Rays' system and is their wont, they fixed him and he has had good numbers in the minors since. Who knows how well he'll do tonight. I bet he has a change-up after coming from the Tampa system.
• The Pirates over the Giants: A.J. Burnett is 5-1 and is pitching some of the best baseball of his long career. The Giants start "Charlton" Chris Heston, who has done pretty well for himself in his young career. I'm going with the Pirates and for the Giants to lose their fourth in a row.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Mets over the Padres: The Mets are led by Bartolo Colon and once you navigate him, you get the young studs who can really pitch.  Noah Syndergaard has lived up to all the hype thus far. Ian Kennedy has been pretty awful to be honest.

Yesterday: 5-4, June: 5-4, Season: 383-357, Picks of the Day: 30-25

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: May 28, 2015

Yesterday was a second straight 9-6 day for this old game picker. That's a decent record and I should be grateful to be above .500. But a ten-correct day is what I consider a good day. Plus, the Dodgers were the pick of the day and lost, so that kind of stinks. The Giants just don't lose. The Astros finally did. The Red Sox lost again. The Yankees swept the Royals after being swept by the Rangers. Go figure. Baseball.

Thursday's picks (short schedule):

• The White Sox over the Orioles: Tyler Wilson is getting his first start for the Orioles in this first game of a double-header. That option isn't appealing. But the Chris Sale option? That is always appealing.
• The Rangers over the Red Sox: This is a REAL tough one. Nick Martinez has been terrific for the Rangers after becoming the adopted son of Greg Maddux. But the Red Sox have thrown caution to the wind (and why not!) and have brought up Eduardo Rodriguez to make his first MLB start. This kid is a great prospect with good control.
• The Angels over the Tigers: I don't like the Tigers here because they have Buck Farmer pitching. He certainly hasn't looked ready for prime time. C.J. Wilson hasn't been pitching well either. So we'll see what happens.
• The Yankees over the Athletics: I have been doing well picking against the A's when they face a lefty starter. And then the Yankees have four lefty relievers. Not good for the A's. Kendall Graveman vs. CC Sabathia.
• The Mariners over the Indians: Corey Kluber and James Paxton will throw zeroes all night and then Nelson Cruz will hit a homer. Doesn't that happen every night?
• The Pirates over the Padres: My bias against A.J. Burnett has burned me all season. Okay, A.J., you win. Now don't throw a clunker to jerk me around, okay? Ian Kennedy goes for the Padres.
• The Giants over the Braves: I am fighting with myself on this one. Shelby Miller has pitched so well for the Braves and he has stood me so well in my picks that it's killing me to pick against him. But Charlton Chris Heston has been pitching well for the Giants, who just never seem to lose.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Orioles over the White Sox: Thus a split. The White Sox are starting Chris Beck who will be making his MLB debut. Mike Wright has done a great job for the Orioles since getting called up.

Yesterday: 9-6, May: 185-162, Season: 352-327, Picks of the Day: 28-22

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: May 23, 2015

It is the first day of Memorial Day Weekend and I woke up early to play golf...and it is snowing. What!? Snowing!? Sheesh.

Anyway, my picks are snowballing too as I went 12-3 yesterday after going 9-3 the day before. I'll take a 21-6 run. The only three incorrect picks were two emotions driven ones. I had the Yankees and they couldn't pitch or field. I had the Cubs and they couldn't hold a lead and I had the Rockies who were beat by the voodoo-driven Giants.

Saturday's picks:

• The Yankees over the Rangers: I know. The Yankees are terrible lately. I know. But amidst that terrible is CC Sabathia who has been pitching really well. I'm going with him over Nick Martinez. Martinez has been very consistent and decent for the Rangers.
• The Mariners over the Blue Jays: Robinson Cano hits a homer off of Mark Buehrle and James Paxton continues his good pitching of late.
• The Mets over the Pirates: A.J. Burnett has been pitching really well for the Pirates but in this case, I have to go with Matt Harvey. Harvey has simply been outstanding.
• The Nationals over the Phillies: This pick makes me a bit nervous because picking Stephen Strasburg never works out for me. But he does do better at home and the Nationals are being carried on Bryce Harper's shoulders. Cole Hamels goes for the Phillies.
• The Tigers over the Astros: The Tigers don't have the offense they had a year ago, but they score enough to win if they get good pitching. Kyle Lobstein has been inconsistent, but I like him in this one over Lance McCullers.
• The Indians over the Reds: Well, welcome back Mr. Corey Kluber. Where have you been? Judging from Kluber's last performance, picking against him would be stupid. Anthony DeSclafani is going in the wrong direction for the Reds.
• The Braves over the Brewers: Probably the only thing that could stop the Brewers right now is a very good Shelby Miller. Mike Fiers would have to match him. I don't know, this is a tough one.
• The White Sox over the Twins: You didn't expect the Twins to be that good, right? Chris Sale over Trevor May.
• The Giants over the Rockies: Charlton Chris Heston has been a nice story for the Giants. How will he do at Coors? He faces Jordan Lyles who hasn't been as good as last year. Giants...
• The Giants over the Rockies: Yeah. I'm going with a sweep. Yusmeiro Petit is a nice swing man for the Giants to have. Meanwhile, the Rockies have to dip and give David Hale a start. Not pretty.
• The Marlins over the Orioles: Dan Haren is 2-0 at home in Miami with a 1.80 ERA there. That seems like a good pick even though Mike Wright was outstanding for the Orioles in his debut start.
• The Angels over the Red Sox: I'm not buying Steven Wright as a starter for the Red Sox. And the Red Sox cannot hit lefties. Though Rusney Castillo might help there. I'm going with the Angels behind C.J. Wilson.
• The Cardinals over the Royals: It's hard to pick against the Royals these days. And John Lackey versus Edinson Volquez is a tough pick. I'm going to pick the Cardinals. And much to Bob's surprise, I have been fairly accurate with my Cards picks this season.
• The Diamondbacks over the Cubs: The Diamondbacks are playing well right now and Rubby De La Rosa has been very good. Jake Arrieta gentille Arrieta hasn't been as fine as last year to this point.
• The Dodgers over the Padres: Mike Bolsinger has been terrific for the Dodgers. Ian Kennedy is your average fourth starter. He'll keep the Padres in the game. No more, no less.

And the Pick of the Day:

• The Rays over the Athletics: Shield your eyes. The A's are gruesome right now. And Kendall Graveman has a good name to be pitching for them. Nate Karns or Nathan Karns, whichever B-R wants for it's linker, has been very consistent for the Rays.

Yesterday: 12-3, May: 152-122, Season: 316-287, Picks of the Day: 25-20