Can Hamilton and Pujols bounce back?

When Robinson Cano signed his mega-deal with the Seattle Mariners, the two names that came up most often in stories and comparisons were Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. The two recent free agent sweepstakes winners were used as the counterweight of what can go wrong with signing long-term deals to players past their primes. Instead of "Remember the Maine" being used as a battle cry, we heard, "Remember Pujols and Hamilton." Forget the money for a moment. The two Angel players are going to get paid insane amounts of money. There is nothing to be done about that fact. But can they come back in 2014 and contribute?

Let's start with Josh Hamilton. Unlike Pujols, Hamilton appeared to be healthy in 2013. He played in 151 games, which, when it comes to Hamilton's past injury history, you would have taken gladly. But he did not produce and became all but forgotten in the grand scheme of things. His wOBA of .319 (OPS+ of 108) was the lowest of his career. His 21 homers were half of his 2012 season. His lack of luster in play led him to become, along with Pujols, the symbol of all that had gone wrong for the Angels.

So what went wrong? For one, he did not enjoy success hitting at home. After successful years hitting at Rangers Ballpark and putting up a career .964 OPS there, Hamilton could only muster a triple slash line at Angel Stadium of .236/.289/.401. That paltry .690 OPS at home compares pretty snugly to the career .717 OPS for his career in that ballpark. Sometimes you have to wonder if agents and players think about ballparks when considering offers. It is clear that Angel Stadium is not conducive to Hamilton's success.

Hamilton hit much better on the road. And while his .787 road OPS is much better, it is still below his standards. So what else went wrong then?

One key statistic is his pitch value against the fastball. In his two great years in Texas, his fastball pitch values were over 30 runs per season. In his lesser years there, his values against the fastball were still fearsome at 19.0 and 18.4 runs above average in 2011 and 2012. That plummeted to only 5.7 runs above average in 2013.

While he used to kill fastballs, Hamilton held his own against other pitch types. But in 2013, the slider killed him. While never previously finishing below -2.4 runs against that pitch and often scoring above average in most other years, Hamilton had a pitch value against the slider of -12.7 runs. Wow!

Word gets around on such things and pitchers exploited Hamilton with the slider. He saw the pitch 19.5% in 2013, the highest of his career.

The real thing most people talk about when it comes to Hamilton is his free-swinging ways. Much has been made about his O-swing rate or the rate Hamilton swings at pitches out of the strike zone. Fangraphs.com rates Hamilton's increase in doing so way more than PitchF/X does, which makes you wonder which one is more accurate.

If you believe Fangraphs, then his O-swing rate the last three years has gone through the roof. But if you believe PitchF/X, then he had a one-year blip in 2012 and his rate in 2013 was near his career norms.

Whichever is correct, there is no denying that Hamilton has no plate discipline. When a 30% O-swing rate or lower is the ideal, then Hamilton's PitchF/X career average of 39% is not good and never has been. But Hamilton produced despite that fact until 2013.

So is he done then as a productive player? I have a hard time making that pronouncement. If you look at his career, he has always had swings in his years. 2009 was otherworldly and then 2010 was not. In fairness, there was some injury problems there.

There is a little hope in that his second half of 2013 was much better than his first half. And he finished real strong in September, though it is troubling that his homer total fell off in the second half. Hamilton's batting average and on-base percentage improved dramatically in the second half, but his first half contained more power.

While there is hope that Hamilton bounces back in 2014, I don't expect it. Half of his games are in a ballpark where he has never seemed comfortable at the plate. Unless he can adjust to the slider pitchers are feeding him and get his groove back against fastballs, then Hamilton becomes an .800 OPS guy, which simply is not enough to help the Angels where they need to go.

So far the projections match my feelings that Albert Pujols will bounce back some in 2014. You have to assume that 2013's results were totally from injuries suffered to Albert's wheels. He tried to play and could barely walk, never mind run and still hit 17 homers in 99 games.

And yes, 2013 finished a three year arc of decline for Pujols that has seen his OPS fall from consistently over one to .906 his last year in St. Louis to .859 in 2012 and then .767 in 2013. I still believe much of 2012 and 2013's problems were health related but time will tell.

All I know is that for Albert Pujols' first ten years, he was right up there with the greats of all time. At the age of 33, he only needs eight more homers for 500. In only 13 years, he has compiled over 2,300 hits and over a thousand extra base hits. Does a guy like that just fall into sheep dip? Maybe. Maybe not.

Like Hamilton, Pujols has fallen off against the fastball. He killed them in the past and fell off in his last year at St. Louis to half his previous value against fastballs and then that was cut in half again in 2013. Pujols never had negative values against any pitch type in his first ten years but was in the negative on three different pitch types in 2013.

Steamer and Oliver both project Pujols to bounce back somewhat in 2014. Though that bounce back will not get him back to where he was in his first ten years, it is still a projection that is optimistic that he will have some impact for the Angels.

Personally, I don't think Pujols is done as a player and I expect one or two more big seasons from him. I do believe his health has not been optimal since 2011. If he can come back feeling good in 2014, then people may be surprised by what he does. Heck, Harmon Killebrew had an MVP season at the age of 33 after a down season plagued by injury. That slugger followed his MVP season with another great one at the age of 34.

For the Angels, you know that (if he stays healthy) Mike Trout is going to Mike Trout. But if Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols can recapture some of their past glory and give the phenom some support, 2014 might be a far better scene for the Angels than 2013 was.

Sitting Josh Hamilton was dumb

One more note on the Angels - Orioles game. As everyone knows, Josh Hamilton has been awful so far with the Angels after signing this huge contract. He is continuing his trend from last year at swinging at everything and is batting like .208 or something. And so his manager sat him yesterday against the Orioles. That was dumb.

Why was it dumb when Hamilton just went zero for four the previous game with three strikeouts? Because he was sat down when a right-handed pitcher was pitching and that pitcher happened to be Freddy Garcia.

Yes, Garcia pitched a wonderful game. But let us not get too giddy here. At this point in his career, Freddy Garcia is a meatball pitcher. If you are expecting him to go six innings without him giving up a hit in the rest of his outings, you are expecting miracles.

I would have taken the odds that Josh Hamilton could have jacked one of those meatballs from Garcia. I would have jumped on that chance to give Hamilton an opportunity to crunch some baseballs. Instead, he was not playing.

I can see Hamilton getting a rest against a tough lefty or even a hard thrower. But against Freddy Garcia? Foolishness. Hamilton could have made a difference in that game.

Imagining a computer with personality computing Josh Hamilton's 2013 projection

Imagine, if you will, a computer with a personality and emotions like a human being. The computer is having a good day and has been cranking out projections with ease. The computer is popping Starburst candies and singing Katrina & The Waves', I'm Walking on Sunshine. "This is a good day," the computer says to itself." After all, it is a computer and it knows it has been well fed by its data keepers. And then suddenly, the computer gets to Josh Hamilton's data. Queue the sound of a record needle jagging  off a record. The computer spills water on itself. "What the bloody heck," the computer says as it jumps up from its office chair in shock and surprise.

Cleaning the spilled water with a paper towel, the computer sits back down and frowns at the data. "This does not compute," it thinks. "90 games played, 156, 89, 133, 121, 148!?" The computer rolls up its sleeves. "How many stupid games is this guy going to play?" It runs the scenarios five different times and five different sets of numbers pop up varying from a low of 120 to a high of 147.

"Let's try something easy," says the computer and brings up the data for the strikeout percentage. "Holy, mother of..." The computer accidentally snaps a pencil in half. It looks at the consistent flow of data from 2007 to 2011 and that looks okay. But then the number jumps to 25.5% in 2012. "How did that happen?" And so the computer loosens its tie and looks at the plate discipline information.

"Okay, he was never the most patient of hitters and his swing and miss rate was always fairly high," it sees. But why did Josh Hamilton swing at everything in 2012!? 45.4%!? "He was swinging at everything!" The computer looks for strands of data that might indicate if there was an eye injury or something that could explain why Hamilton started swinging as soon as he got out of bed in the morning.

The computer dutifully ran the data several thousand times and felt a little better when the data settled down to anywhere from 21.9% to a high of 22.9%. "Okay, that's better. After all, that was this human's rate in 2009. This will work."

But the computer is working up a sweat by now. The tie comes off. He calls on the intercom for a coffee. The Starbursts get shoved into a desk drawer. It decides to look at this human's ISO. "What the..."

It sees the ISO numbers over the years fall all over the sandbox. .262 in 2007, .158 in 2009, .238 in 2011 and .292 in 2012. The computer starts thumping its chest to see if his data is flowing properly. How does it figure this mess out? The computations are run a few thousand times. They spit out .214 from its ZiPS computation. Frowning, the computer is not happy with such a low number after a .292 season and runs the data a few more thousand times using slightly different algorithmic sets. "Wait! Wait!" the computer shouts as .251 spits out followed by a .221, followed by .246.

"Oh. Come. On. Now!"

The computer sits back and pictures the Rocky Mountains and then Lake Reno. It tries to regulate its breathing. After a while of doing this, the computer cracks its knuckles and repeats a mantra that everything is going to be okay. After all, it is just numbers and numbers don't lie. The computer decides to tackle on-base percentage. "This should be easy."

Trying to be dispassionate and look at the data impersonally, the computer sees a normal progression with two anomalous seasons in 2009 and 2010. "It's okay," says the computer, "We'll just throw those out." And it does. As it runs the algorithmic calculation, the computer is confident about this one. Suddenly, numbers start spitting out anywhere from .333 to .356 and everything in between. "What is wrong with me!?"

By now, the computer's shirt is untucked, the tie has been long discarded. The coffee has been drained and is empty despite how many times the computer brings the cup to its lips. Finally, in a moment of clarity, the computer sits back and thinks that a self-diagnosis is in order. Repeating its mantra over and over, the computer checks every one of its systems.

Everything seems normal. "Keep checking!" The computer goes into a trance-like state and tries to push its mind outside its body. Looking around at all its inputs and orifices, the computer finally spots something. "What is THAT?"

Taking a closer look is difficult because what has been spotted is in the middle of its back. It keeps reaching around and cannot get to it. Rooting around its desk, the computer finally spies a pair of tweezers and reaches around. Using the mirror for a guide, the tweezers slowly inch to the target. Finally, "I got it!"

As the offending particles are brought around to where the computer can inspect them, a puzzled look and a frown creases its face. "Chewing tobacco??" What the heck does that mean?

The computer sits back heavily in its chair and creates an email that it sends to Szymborski. The short e-mail reads as follows: "Josh Hamilton: you're on your own on this one, Dude."

Where does Josh Hamilton fit best?

Josh Hamilton has to be the most interesting superstar that has played in this generation. While playing often with such skill that music from The Natural plays in the background, he brings trepidation because of his history and what that history has supposedly done to his ability to stay on the field. And when was the last time that a player finished a season a with .387 wOBA and a .930 OPS and been considered such a disappointment? We expect Hamilton to fail. And yet more often than not, he doesn't. All these side stories make him the most fascinating free agent in recent history.

Most experts agree that anything beyond a four-year contract would be stupid when approaching Josh Hamilton. From this chair, anything beyond a four-year contract for ANY player is stupid. So this isn't just a Josh Hamilton thing. And yet, Hamilton will probably looking for a minimum of seven years. Why wouldn't he? This is his chance to set himself up for life. A deal similar to Teixeira's would be possible if he was any other player with his pedigree.

But naturally, teams will have a concern about his health and his stability and ability to day by day fight his demons. The fact that he will be 32 in May only complicates his situation and really makes anything beyond a four-year deal risky to say the least.

The other concerns for teams will be his diminishing discipline at the plate. Hamilton has always been a free swinger. But his normal range was swinging at pitches out of the strike zone some 35 to 37 percent of the time. But 2011 saw that number rise to 41 percent and 2012 to 45 percent. That seems to some as a breakdown in approach. His swing and miss rate jumped to 20 percent this past season, easily a high for his career. And his 25.5 percent strikeout rate was nearly six percentage points above his career average.

But even so, gosh, he hit 43 homers and knocked in 128 runs. A full 25 percent of his fly balls went over the fence. And just in case you credit his home ballpark too much, his home OPS was .937 and his road OPS was .924. He hit 22 homers at home and 21 on the road.

Expect teams to be conservative and if so, his market should settle in where it should. But where does Josh Hamilton fit best? Obviously, with his power and the fact that he hits left-handed, the Yankees would be a perfect fit. But that team is trying to stay fiscally conservative for 2014 so that does not appear to compute. Other teams like the Dodgers may covet him and be willing to spend that kind of money, but that park would not be friendly to Hamilton's game and he should avoid that unless he cares more about the dollars than where he fits best.

Here are two destinations where he makes the most sense for what his game is and where he can succeed the most:

1. Atlanta. Chipper comes off the books this season and while Hamilton would stretch the budget a bit, Atlanta would be close to Hamilton's childhood home of North Carolina. He has hit well in the Braves' home ballpark. The Nationals are going to be tough to hang with judging from their current talent. A bopper like Hamilton who is also a better hitter than people give him credit for would go a long way to making the Braves uber-competitive for the foreseeable future.

2. Baltimore. If you look at Hamilton's career splits, he has raked at Camden Yards. Other than his home parks in Texas and Cincinnati, he has hit more homers in Baltimore than anywhere else. He also kills the Yankees and hits extremely well in Yankee Stadium. The Orioles would get that match up nine times. The Orioles have made great strides but left field remains one of their weaknesses. Hamilton would be killer in Baltimore and instantly help that team to be a factor for the next few seasons. Hamilton should flourish under Showalter and again, Maryland would not be that far from where he grew up.

3. Texas. His last year in Texas was not a happy event. And things ended on a sour note. Hamilton might be fed up with the whole thing, especially with the kid gloves the Rangers gave on trying to extend him. But Hamilton's numbers for the Rangers are without question. They will be seriously weaker without him.

Where Hamilton eventually ends up and what kind of deal he will get will be one of the most interesting stories of this off season. The three locations listed here might be the best fits for his services but they are not likely to be the favorites.

Not to take anything away from Josh Hamilton...

Josh Hamilton had a historic night. He not only hit four homers in a game, something that had only happened fifteen other times in baseball history, but he also hit a double which combined to break the all-time American League total bases record for a game. That is very cool. We saw history. You cannot say that every day. And of course, your happiness level for Hamilton depends on how you view him and his story. Some love his overcoming addiction story and others think he's a jerk who has had too many chances. But again, his game was one for the record books. But to take nothing away from Hamilton's game heroics, there is another side of the story: The pitchers who threw the pitches. Frankly, they deserved what they got.

To show that side of the story, here are five pictorial views of what Hamilton hit. Yes, credit the guy with hitting them. He didn't miss these pitches or foul them off. But it's not like they were well thrown. Here they are in sequence:

The first homer off of Jake Arrieta:

Middle of the strike zone where Hamilton could get his arms extended. Meat.

The second homer off of Jake Arrieta:

Better. But still belt high where Hamilton could extend his arms. Hamilton hit it to the opposite field.

The double off of Jake Arrieta:

Again, out where Hamilton could extend his arms. You would think after the first two, Arrieta would have gone somewhere else.

The homer (number 3) off of Zach Phillips:

As the host of Baseball Tonight would say: "You don't want to go...there." Notice the pattern here? Every single hit on the outside part of the plate up where Hamilton can get his arms extended and crush it.

And finally, homer number four against Darren O'Day:

Once again. Stupid pitch. Once again, creamed.

Josh Hamilton's night was historic and you have to give him all the props in the world. He went opposite field once and to straight away center twice. But still, the five at bats showed an inappropriate amount of stupidity on the part of the pitchers involved. Or perhaps for Wieters for the pitches he called. Or perhaps for Buck Showalter to allow his pitchers to pitch to the guy. In any case. It was a serious case of Duh times five.

Josh Hamilton Leads Rangers for Repeat

Peter Gammons wrote a wonderful piece on how Josh Hamilton has inspired a former number one pick and addict, Jeff Allison. It's a great story as only Peter Gammons can write it. With Josh Hamilton, his past will always be a part of the story, and his past also leads to the real fear that he can always fall again. Every indication is that Hamilton has his life under control and while we all pray that is the case, as long as he plays for the Texas Rangers, he will lead that team as they begin their run to defend their American League title.

Much has been written about the Rangers this off season. They didn't get Cliff Lee to stay. They signed Adrian Beltre and then we have all been obsessed with what's going to happen with Michael Young. But the real story for the Texas Rangers is Josh Hamilton, who if he can stay healthy, is the best player in the American League. And the bad news for the rest of the league is that Hamilton, at age 29, should be at the peak of his powers.

Of course, if you are talking about Josh Hamilton and not talking about his drug past, you have to talk about his injuries. People wonder whether Hamilton's past is a part of his injury-riddled present. That seems to be a difficult argument to make. What we do know is that Hamilton has missed significant time in every season except 2008. That season, he drove in 130 runs. And Hamilton is a much better player now than he was in 2008, which was his first full season after breaking in with the Reds the year before.

Instead, Hamilton seems a lot like Larry Walker. Walker, when he was healthy, was simply a brilliant ball player. But his style of play simply led him to miss a boat load of games over the course of his career. Hamilton seems a lot like Walker. Certainly from a talent standpoint, the two are very similar. What the Rangers have to hope for is that Hamilton can play 155 games. Until he can put a couple of those types of seasons together back to back, there will always be a question of injury.

Baseball needs Hamilton to be healthy because he simply can do things others can't. His homer against the Yankees in the ALCS was amazing. He was fooled by the pitch, his front leg and hips were already gone but somehow he got the head of the bat on the ball and hit it out of the park. Josh Hamilton is the best player, with more pure talent than any player this Fan has seen since Barry Bonds.

As Peter Gammons wrote, President Bush said we all love a reclamation project. And as such, Josh Hamilton is our favorite story in baseball. If Jeff Allison can make it to the major leagues, he'll be another favorite. We root for guys who have overcome the depths of despair to succeed using the talent they were born with. Baseball needs Josh Hamilton and it needs him healthy. The Rangers need him that way too. Because if he is healthy, the Rangers are clearly better than anyone else in the American League West.

Josh Hamilton is Simply Amazing

Josh Hamilton continues to pour it on. It seems like every game, he has multiple hits. He went three for five on Thursday and four for five (so far) on Friday. On Friday night, he hit a homer (25) and a double (37) and had four hits. Be has now scored 79 runs and has driven in 79. His average is all the way up to .362. His OPS was 1.027 BEFORE he had that big game on Friday. And he's done all that in only 109 games. He is even seven for eight in stolen base attempts.

The man is--stated simply--a heck of a lot of fun to watch.

Quite a Race Going for AL MVP

Josh Hamilton has been amazing for the Rangers. Every single day the box score reveals multiple hits, doubles, homers, ribbies. The guy is just on another planet right now. But he's still not a lock for MVP. Another candidate is Miguel Cabrera, who has been putting up his own monster season. Robinson Cano has faded a bit in recent weeks, but if he heats up again, he is currently fourth in the majors in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Youkilis is a long shot and Morneau needs to come back hot from his concussion.

Those who vote for MVP usually vote on traditional counting stats. Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera lead the way in those categories. Currently first and second in batting respectively, they combine a high batting average with plenty of power and both are driving in runs in prodigious regularity. Hamilton is batting .360. Cabrera is batting .347. Both are amazing averages. Cabrera has Hamilton by one homer and fourteen RBIs. He also leads Hamilton in runs scored by four. Those are the traditional stats that MVP voters look at when the season is over. But there are other factors. If any of the voters are interested in some of the newer statistics, we'll get to those in a minute.

Team factors will arise for voters. Cano will have problems because he plays with a bunch of superstars. Hamilton isn't the only force in the Rangers' lineup. Young, Kinsler and especially, Vlad Guerrero, are all having great years. So that may be a detraction from Hamilton. Cabrera is the only great hitter in his lineup. Yes, rookies Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch are having good seasons. But they can't carry the lineup like Cabrera can. The problem Cabrera might face is if the Tigers fall out of the race and become irrelevant. If that happens, Cabrera's chances will suffer.

Youkilis and Morneau will have arguments as well. Morneau led all of baseball in WAR for most of the season until the last couple of weeks. Youkilis has had a great season and has been a rock for the Red Sox in a season of injury and upheaval. If the Red Sox cannot catch up to the two top teams in the AL East, he'll have problems getting votes. Morneau has been slowed by his concussion, but he also has a problem with his own teammates. Joe Mauer is considered one of the best players in baseball at a premier position and Delmon Young is having an amazing breakout season. Young might be the Twins MVP right now. Both Morneau and Youkilis have one other problem that Cabrera shares. They are all first baseman and because that position is so loaded throughout baseball (the NL MVP will come down to two first basement too in Votto and Pujols), all those great players get jumbled up in jumbo.

Will anybody with an MVP vote care about the newfangled statistics? Probably a few. If so, Cabrera leads all of baseball with an OPS of 1.067. Morneau is second and Hamilton is third. Morneau leads all of baseball in wOBA at .447. But that category is really tight. Cabrera is at .444 and Hamilton is at .441. Youkilis is fourth at .421. There is another stat called Win Probability (WPA) and Cabrera is first in that category and Hamilton second. Nobody is remotely close to them in those categories.

Where it gets dicey is if you go by value which includes fielding. Cabrera still isn't considered an elite first baseman. He has improved, no doubt. But he is not great. Hamilton is having a fine season in left and Morneau is having a great season in the field. When you add fielding to batting, you get a statistic called WAR or Wins above Replacement which is used to figure a dollar value on a player's performance. Hamilton leads the majors with a WAR of 5.4 and a value of $21.6 million. Morneau is second at 5.2 and $20.6 million. Carl Crawford, a long shot for this award, is a surprising third at 5.1 and $20.5 million. But it's really not that surprising to those who look at these kinds of numbers. Crawford has hit for some power, steals bases and is the best left fielder in the game today.

So where are we? Well, we have to take into consideration what the old-fogey voters vote for. They want average. They want power. And they want their winner to be on a contending team. Hamilton fits. Crawford fits, but again, he suffers from playing with Longoria and Zobrist who will distract some votes. Cabrera will lose out because the Tigers are fading and because he is a first baseman. That leaves us with Josh Hamilton, who would win if the vote was held tomorrow. And for once, the voters would not be wrong.

Josh Hamilton Again a Force in Texas

Last year was a tough year for those who had rooted so hard for Josh Hamilton to continue to inspire us. We all know his story. The gifted young phenom who threw it all away to drugs that almost killed him. The salvation, both spiritually and athletically that started when the Reds took a flier on him in 2007 and were rewarded by a Hamilton who responded with a 134 OPS+ in 90 games that year. He became an inspiration and an icon of hope for millions of families who have dealt with addiction issues that, unless you've lived through them, crippled and maim like no other family issue. Yes, last year was tough. It was not only the degradation of performance in which a Hamilton that ruled the leaderboards for almost all of 2008, became fairly pathetic at the plate when he could physically play. But it wasn't only that, it was the crushing blow that his us when it was revealed that he got caught in a night of revelry and debauchery. Oh God, no. Not Josh Hamilton.

We don't know where Hamilton currently is in his struggles with the never ending demons that push and shove and try to destroy anyone who tries to overcome them. It's not something that is talked about or written about, at least to this writer's knowledge. But we do know that after some early season injuries and after a slow start, Hamilton is again hitting like 2008 and is once again a force at the plate for the Rangers. We'll take what we can get.

Hamilton went four for five on Wednesday night while hitting his sixteenth homer and driving in his 48th runner. The 29 year old outfielder has gotten a hit in 22 of his last 24 games including the last 12 straight. Eleven of those games were multiple hit games. In those 24 games, he's gone 41 for 113 (a .363 pace) with nine homers and 25 runs driven in. He's raised his average from .268 to .323 and his current line stands at .323/.371/.594 good for a whopping OPS of .965. With the absence of Nelson Cruz, Hamilton has filled the gap and been amazing.

But rooting for Hamilton has its drawbacks. It's a pins and needles feeling of hoping for the best and dreading the worst. May all of our dreams yet hold true.

Just One of Those Days

Ever have one of those days where the entire day seemed uphill? Where everything you picked up or tried to pick up ended on the floor and every job you attempted had to be done twice or three times to get correct? Yeah. It's been one of those days. Not sure what this post will do to correct things. Surely moods aren't the best moods to write posts from. Heck, that was a lousy sentence with poor construction. See?


As long as things seem more of the dark cloud variety today rather than the silver lining, this post might as well focus on some negative things. Some of them this space predicted long ago and some were just so surprising that it would have been impossible to predict. Either way, there is no joy in reporting on them. They just are what they are.

Let's start with the Cubs. Harden pitched another game on Wednesday and bears no resemblance to the pitcher he has always been before. He lasted all of three innings, walked three and gave up five hits. Granted, the Cubs played shoddy defense behind him and maybe that is the most telling thing about the Harden this year and last. But that can't completely explain how last year he was a combined 10-2 in 25 starts with a WHIP around 1 and 96 hits in 148 innings. This year, he has the same 25 starts and his WHIP is around 1.3 and he's given up 117 hits in 138 innings. That's still pretty impressive except that he only gave up eleven homers last year and has given up 23 this year. Plus, he's only averaged about five and a half innings a start.

For a while, it seemed that by the time Milton Bradley finished the season, his stats would be fairly respectable. But he has gone into another tailspin and is now likely to finish the season below .400 in slugging percentage and below .800 in OPS. Hardly what the Cubs were hoping for. He did manage to play his 123rd game Wednesday night, so that, at least, exceeded expectations.

What about Geovany Soto? He was one of the best catchers in the game last year. This year, he's just a shell of that and his stats in almost every category (except errors) are down this year.

When it is all said and done, it just seems like Lou Piniella is not the right guy for that team. Sure, he has a right to be upset and disgusted with the likes of Bradley and Zambrano. But that's the nature of today's players. Pineilla is a throw back to another era, and people aren't the same as they were then.

There are three teams that fielded starting line ups Wednesday night that did not include a .300 hitter. Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Baltimore. Is there something wrong with the water in that middle section of the country?

The Fan was feeling a little sorry for Mike Hampton today after it was learned that he had surgery to repair a completely torn rotator cuff and will miss all of next year. After all, the guy has tried really hard to compete and just can't stay healthy enough to do so. Then the Fan remembered all the money Hampton has made in the game of baseball and the sympathy went out the window. Hey, that's just the way the mood is today.

Speaking of health, Josh Hamilton will probably miss the rest of the year now. If you could have put Hamilton's numbers of a year ago on this year's Rangers team, how many more wins would the Rangers have? Would they still be in the race? As it is, the Rangers have died and Hamilton's season was stillborn from the start. It's hard to root against Hamilton who overcame so much to have a career again in baseball. His fragile health and his embarrassing bar fiasco have put an end to what was a pretty baseball story. Maybe next year.

Jimmy Rollins had an OBP of .287 the first half and .292 the second half. His second half has been more productive as his slugging percentage went from .355 the first half to .490 the second half. But even so, he has only walked ten times in the second half. Ten times. Can the Phillies really get away with a lead off batter in the playoffs who gets on base that seldom?

Earlier in the season, the Fan said that Jason Varitek was done. Comments were to the contrary as he started the year hitting some homers and stuff. But come on. His average is down to .213 and has particularly tanked since Victor Martinez came over from the Indians. He has had a brutal year with base runners stealing all over the place. Varitek's OPS and OPS+ are up slightly from a year ago, but slightly better than awful is still pretty bad.

And yeah, David Ortiz has hit 24 homers and his OPS the second half is .841 but he is still only batting .251 the second half. He is going to finish the season 30 points below last year in average, 40 points below last year's OBP, 50 points below last year's slugging percentage, 100 points behind last year's OPS and at least 25 points below last year's OPS+. And last year was a down year. Just to put things in perspective, Nick Swisher has a better OPS this season than Ortiz.

Incentive clauses are in the news these days. Magglio Ordonez reached enough at bats to automatically pick up his $18 million in salary next year. That's a lot of tamales for what is now a singles hitter. Kevin Millwood's next start will guarantee him $12 million next year. There is a lot of call for the Rangers to shut him down for the rest of the year. They can't. If they did, they would lose to the union and it will cost them that much anyway. And yeah, $12 million is a lot of money for a league average pitcher this year (his best in quite a while too).

Still Rooting for Josh Hamilton

Speaking of Jeff Passan, he wrote a fair piece on Josh Hamilton, who as everyone now knows, fell off the wagon recently and was caught publicly in a bar in some compromising situations. Passan, as well as all of us that root for humanity, were disappointed that Hamilton fell off the wagon. It's difficult to state the hope that Hamilton represented. The one thing to remember is that Hamilton had an episode. He did not have a complete bender.

The Fan is familiar with addiction. Having first hand knowledge of the subject in family matters, there is no greater and more stressful horror than a loved one who cannot seem to lick such a situation. For those like us who are familiar with such horrors, Hamilton represented hope, but also worry because we know what can happen.

Who knows why good young people (and good old people) fall into such a trap. Lives are ruined, families are wrecked and it is never pretty. Some day, the Fan may be able to get everything out on the page of what he has experienced on the topic. But for now, let's just say that the heart goes out to Hamilton and prayers are being said for him and his family.

It's far too easy to judge Hamilton. Those that judge have not experienced the horror that is addiction. From one who has seen it first hand, there is no judgement here. There is only immense hope that Hamilton can be surrounded by his support system and find new resolve in this situation.

Josh Hamilton is Back

Well, yeah, he only went 1-5 and he struck out twice. But he did help wreck what was a great pitching duel between Feldman and Vargas with a two-run homer off of Mark Lowe that helped break the game open.

Texas has a shot at the American League West. Feldman has given them two quality starts in a row, Millwood has been much better than last year and they can still rake with the bats. Having Hamilton back in the middle of the lineup can only help and they probably can't win the division without him.